Hi Folks,

Here's our look at the Passing Matchups and Rushing Matchups for this week.

PLEASE NOTE: This does NOT replace the Cheatsheet ranking. The
Cheatsheet rankings are the final say on where we see a player for
that week. The Matchup Breakdowns are simply one more tool in the box
when it comes to helping choose your lineup.

Also note, just because a player has a "bad" matchup, it does NOT mean
he's not a starter in your league. If Peyton Manning is playing the
toughest pass defense in the league, that just means he's got a tough
matchup that week. He's also your starter unless you're loaded at QB.
In the same way, if the worst RB on your roster has a "great" matchup
that week, it doesn't necessarily mean he's your starter. It means we
think he'll fare better than normal that week.

Bottom line is that the cheatsheets are the final say.

Let's jump to it.

Joe



Quick Index:

Great Matchups:

Minnesota's Passing Attack vs. The Green Bay Defense (Great Matchup)
Green Bay's Passing Attack vs. The Minnesota Defense (Great Matchup)

Good Matchups:

St. Louis' Passing Attack vs. The Seattle Defense (Good Matchup)
New York Jets' Passing Attack vs. The San Diego Defense (Good Matchup)
San Diego's Passing Attack vs. The New York Jets' Defense (Good Matchup)

Neutral Matchups:

Seattle's Passing Attack vs. The St. Louis Defense (Neutral Matchup)
Denver's Passing Attack vs. The Indianapolis Defense (Neutral Matchup)
Indianapolis' Passing Attack vs. The Denver Defense (Neutral Matchup)

Tough Matchups:

None this week.

Bad Matchups:

None this week.



Minnesota's Passing Attack vs. The Green Bay Defense (Great Matchup)

Daunte Culpepper torched the Packers for 27/44 for 363 yards, 4 TDs
and 0 interceptions during week 10 at Lambeau Field; and then followed
up with 16/23 for 285 yards, 3 TDs and 0 interceptions vs. Green Bay
at home in week 16. In both cases, the Packers won 34-31 – this Wild
Card playoff game will be played outdoors at Lambeau Field.

Nate Burleson (11/141/1) and Jermaine Wiggins (6/94/1) led all
receivers in the week 10 game – the other TDs were scored by RBs Moe
Williams (4/57/1) and Onterrio Smith (2/13/1). Burleson was also a
force in the second barn-burner, with 2/110/1 receiving – Randy
"Early-Exit" Moss had 2/30/1 in that week 16 game, while Michael
Bennett hauled in a TD on 3/67/1 – in all, 7 players caught passes
from Culpepper 2 weeks ago.

As you can see, the Packer's pass defenders have been pretty shaky
during this year's series between these division rivals.

Over the past 3 weeks, Culpepper has amassed 68/102 for 988 yards, 8
TDs and 1 interception (with 9/67/0 rushing) – he's been on fire (#1
fantasy QB during those 3 weeks), despite the late-season losses that
have plagued Minnesota. His top receiver during that span has been
Nate Burleson (11/293/3), followed by Randy Moss (11/198/3) – Burleson
was the 2nd best fantasy WR during those weeks, while Moss checks in
at #15. Jermaine Wiggins has 17/134/0 to his credit during that span –
he's seen 22 targets over the past 3 weeks, 2nd on the team (Moss
leads the team with 26 chances, while Burleson has seen 16 passes come
his way). The Vikings' aerial assault is barreling along heading into
the playoffs. One potential stumbling block for Culpepper and company
– inadequate pass blocking: the Vikings allowed the 8th most QB sacks
this season, with 46, while the Packers are a top-ten sacking team (40
QB sacks, tied for 9th in the NFL). The Vikings gave up 4 sacks to
Green Bay in their first game, but zero in the second matchup.

Last week, the Packers handled the embarrassingly-lame Bear's attack
(Chicago's QBs threw for a total of 9 TDs in 16 games this season),
limiting Chad Hutchinson to 20/29 for 196 yards, 0 TDs and 1
interception (but anything other than limiting Hutchinson would have
been a major disappointment – kicking a lame horse is not a big
achievement). They've been surrendering an average of 204 passing
yards and 2.0 thrown TDs per game over the final ¼ of the season,
which is an improvement on the Packers' bottom-tier average of 228.9
passing yards allowed per game (25th in the NFL) – the Packers allowed
the most passing TDs in the NFL during regular season, with 33 allowed
in 16 games. The Green Bay secondary is not a solid unit, generally
speaking.

The Viking's attack is in good health for this stage of the season,
with only WR Kelly Campbell to report (shoulder, questionable) – the
Packers are also in good shape. Injuries aren't a major factor for
either unit at this point.

The forecast for Lambeau Field calls for a high of 35F with a low of
28F and a 10% chance of snow on Sunday. At this time of year, wind is
almost always a factor in this venue, which can make the motion on
passes unpredictable.

Green Bay didn't find any solutions to the "Vikings Problem" during
2004, and there is no reason to expect them to suddenly slow down
Culpepper and company to begin 2005. Advantage, Minnesota.



Green Bay's Passing Attack vs. The Minnesota Defense (Great Matchup)

Brett Favre dueled Culpepper at the pace of 20/29 for 236 yards, 4 TDs
and 0 interceptions during the week 10 show-down at Lambeau Field; in
the course of the week 16 contest, Favre blew up for 30/43 for 365
yards, 3 TDs and 1 interception. Both QBs hit for 7 passing scores in
2 games – Green Bay won both games 34-31, and therefore the Packers
have the "12th Man" on their side this week (the Wild Card game will
be held at Lambeau Field).

Javon Walker led the Packer receivers in week 10 (3/74/1), while TE
Bubba Franks (2/24/1), FB William Henderson (4/16/1) and RB Tony
Fisher (3/36/1) snagged a TD each during the game. In week 16, Donald
Driver was the Vikings' biggest headache, with 11/162/1, supported by
Walker with 5/90/1 (Bubba Franks also scored on his lone catch, with
1/22/1). In all, 8 players snagged passes from Favre 2 weeks ago.

As you can see, the Viking's pass defenders have been pretty shaky
during this year's series between these division rivals.

Over the past 3 games, Favre has tossed 69/100 for 928 yards, 7 TDs
and 4 interceptions – he comes into this playoff matchup at the top of
his game (Favre was the 5th-best fantasy QB during the closing weeks
of the regular season). Javon Walker (19/324/2, 7th best fantasy WR)
and Donald Driver (16/284/2, 11th best fantasy WR) both rank in the
top 15 WRs during that span, while TE Bubba Franks has piled up 7/91/2
to rank 7th among fantasy TE's. Last week, the Packers stomped Chicago
31-14 to avenge an early-season defeat – Walker led the team with
3/82/1 and Franks had 4/59/1 in the course of the game (Favre played
part-time and totaled 9/13 for 196 yards, 2 TDs and 0 interceptions
before resting on the bench). The Packers come into this playoff game
red-hot in this phase of the game.

Minnesota, on the other hand, has been horrible at defending the pass
during the closing ¼ of the season, with an average of 278 passing
yards and 2.6 passing scores allowed per game over the past 4 weeks.
They gave up the 4th-most passing TDs during regular season (30 in 16
games), while ranking 27th in the NFL allowing an average of 243
passing yards per game – Washington's Patrick Ramsey hit 17/26 for 216
yards, 2 TDs and 1 interception vs. Minnesota in the season finale. To
make matters even worse, the team's starting SS Corey Chavous broke
his left arm just above the elbow in the final regular season game,
and is out for the foreseeable future. His backup and probable
replacement this week, Willie Offord, was burned for a 45 yard long
completion to Washington's Taylor Jacobs down to the Vikings' 1 (that
led to a short TD) in relief of Chavous last week. Offord commented
about moving to SS: "I haven't played there in a couple of years.
That's not going to be an excuse."

The Vikings list CBs Brian Williams (illness) and Terrance Shaw (ribs)
as probable to play this week. S Chavous (broken arm) is out, while
the Packer's Robert Ferguson is said to be doubtful while he continues
to recover from the "clothesline" hit from Jaguar Donovin Darius and
the corresponding head/neck injury suffered in the game vs.
Jacksonville. Also listed by the Packers: TE Bubba Franks (knee,
probable).

The forecast for Lambeau Field calls for a high of 35F with a low of
28F and a 10% chance of snow on Sunday. At this time of year, wind is
almost always a factor in this venue, which can make the motion on
passes unpredictable (Favre throws so hard that it isn't a huge
problem for the Packers most of the time, though).

The Packers have enjoyed a great deal of success against the Vikings
this season – given Minnesota's lineup juggling (and their related
injury woes), the Packers appear to have a huge edge coming into this
game.



St. Louis' Passing Attack vs. The Seattle Defense (Good Matchup)

These teams battled twice this season, in weeks 5 and 10. St. Louis
came out on top both times – Marc Bulger threw for 24/42 for 325 yards
with 3 TDs and 3 interceptions in week 5, and hit for 23/34 for 262
yards, 1 TD and 0 interceptions during the week 10 contest. Isaac
Bruce led the team in receiving yards in both games (6/78/0 during
week 5 and 7/104/0 during week 10), while Torry Holt (5/53/0 and
2/32/0, respectively) played a less-prominent-than-usual part in both
contests. Kevin Curtis caught 2 of the 4 TDs (2/45/1 and 3/39/1) that
Bulger threw in the 2 games, while Shaun McDonald (2/76/1 and 1/21/0)
and Brandon Manumaleuna (3/33/1 and 1/6/0) snagged the other available
TDs in week 5. Bulger has utilized a wide array of targets in the two
games so far, as you can see (he also rushed for 4/9/1 vs. the
Seahawks in week 5).

Over the past 3 weeks, Bulger has appeared in 2 games, with 49/66 for
675 yards, 4 TDs and 2 interceptions (with 4/13/0 rushing) to his
credit (3rd fantasy QB in fantasy points per game during that span).
Last week, Bulger led his team to a crucial 32-29 OT victory over the
play-off caliber Jets with 29/39 for 450 yards, 3 TDs and 2
interceptions during a see-saw contest. Torry Holt (7/116/2) and Isaac
Bruce (5/86/1) accounted for the TDs, while Kevin Curtis grabbed
6/99/0 – Bruce exited the game due to a hip contusion (the team
reports Bruce as probable to play this week due to his bruised hip).
One big problem for the Rams this season has been pass protection –
they are tied for 5th in the NFL with 50 sacks allowed over 16 games
(including 3-18 allowed last week vs. the NYJ).

The Seahawks' pass defense played poorly to close the regular season,
with an average of 218 passing yards and 2.2 passing TDs given up per
game over the final 4 weeks of the regular season. The team has been
below average all season long, ranking 23rd in the NFL surrendering an
average of 224.3 passing yards per game and a total of 24 passing
scores to date. They closed the regular season by giving up 20/29 for
167 yards, 2 TDs and 1 interception to the Falcon's low-profile bunch
(minus Alge Crumpler, the teams' top receiver, and with only 7 pass
attempts to Vick's credit before a numb throwing hand forced the
Falcons' starter from the game).  The Seahawks are a sub-par bunch in
this phase, generally speaking.

The Seahawks list CB Bobby Taylor (knee, questionable) on their
mid-week injury report – he's missed several games due to this injury.
CB Marcus Trufant has a sore thigh (probable).

The forecast for Qwest Field calls for a high of 41F with a low of 33F
and a 30% chance of snow showers. If the snow falls thickly around
game-time, visibility, footing and ball-handling could become issues
during the contest.

St. Louis has handled the Seahawks in both of their prior meetings,
and they come into this game firing on all cylinders – despite the
hostile venue, we think the Rams have an edge in this matchup.



New York Jets' Passing Attack vs. The San Diego Defense (Good Matchup)

Chad Pennington enjoyed one of his more effective games throwing the
ball vs. the Chargers when these teams faced off in week 2, tossing
22/29 for 258 yards, 2 TDs and 0 interceptions during the game (FB
Jerald Sowell (5/56/1) and TE Chris Baker (3/20/1) snagged the scores,
while Santana Moss caught 4/97/0 to lead the team). Since that game,
the Charger's pass defense hasn't improved – they averaged 253.3
passing yards allowed per game over the 16 regular season games (31st
in the NFL), with 19 scores given up during the season.

Over the past 3 weeks, Pennington has been steady (but not
impressive), with 61/96 for 686 yards, 5 TDs and 2 interceptions to
show for his efforts (15th-ranked fantasy QB during the closing weeks
of 2004-05). Justin McCareins (20 targets for 14/178/1) and Santana
Moss (19 for 11/139/3) are Pennington's primary targets coming into
this game – Moss had 4/28/0 vs. St. Louis last week, while McCareins
snagged 6/62/0 to lead the team (Chris Baker scored the TD with
1/8/1).

San Diego has been porous in this phase of the game during the final ¼
of the season, allowing an average of 295 passing yards and 1.2 TDs in
the last 4 regular season contests (even worse than their 31st-place
season ranking would indicate). Last week, Trent Green and company
touched the Chargers for 33/53 for 373 yards, 1 TD and 4 interceptions
– the turnovers helped preserve the Chargers 24 – 17 victory. The team
ranks 29th in the NFL this year with only 29 sacks to their credit –
San Diego is not stout in this phase of the game.

The Jets report WR Wayne Chrebet as probable to play despite a mild
concussion suffered in last week's game. CB Sammy Davis is
questionable to play due to a leg fracture.

The forecast for Qualcomm Stadium calls for a high of 61F with a low
of 51F and a 40% chance for rain. If the rain falls heavily at
game-time, the turf could get slick and muddy, making footing and
ball-handling more of a challenge than normal.

San Diego's pass defense is porous, and hasn't improved during the
course of 2004 – there is no reason to expect them to suddenly become
formidable in the playoffs. Advantage, New York.



San Diego's Passing Attack vs. The New York Jets' Defense (Good Matchup)

Drew Brees struggled in his appearance vs. the Jets (way back in week
2), with 8/19 for 146 yards, 1 TD and 2 interceptions to his credit
before taking a seat on the bench (Doug Flutie tossed 7/16 for 77
yards, 0 TDs and 0 interceptions during relief duty that day). Reche
Caldwell (now on IR) led the team in receptions and scoring with
4/67/1 during the early-season contest. Since then, as we know, Brees
has transformed himself into a top NFL starter, and ended the season
with 262/400 for 3159 yards, 27 TDs and only 7 interceptions (he threw
only 5 interceptions in the games during weeks 3-17). Don't lend much
weight to the poor game Brees endured in week 2 – a lot has changed
since then, including the emergence of TE Antonio Gates (81/964/13
over 15 games of action, to lead all NFL TE's in TDs).

Over the past 3 weeks, Brees has notched 25/37 for 375 yards, 4 TDs
and 1 interception in 2 games (18th fantasy QB in fantasy points per
game to close the season). TE Antonio Gates accounted for 8/121/2 over
the past 3 weeks (2 games) to rank 2nd among all fantasy TEs in
fantasy points per game. The top Charger receiver to close the season
was TE Ryan Krause (5/81/1 in the season finale), but the teams'
starters for the playoff game are likely to be WRs Keenan McCardell
and Eric Parker (with Gates at TE, no doubt).

The Jets ranked 14th in the NFL, allowing an average of 207 passing
yards per game this past regular season (with 21 passing scores
surrendered in 16 games). They've been more generous of late,
averaging 233 passing yards and 1.6 passing scores given up per game
over the last 4 weeks. Last week, the Jets were rocked for 29/39 for
450 yards, 3 TDs and 2 interceptions during the Rams' OT victory –
they come into this matchup cold as ice in this phase of the game.

The Jets come into the game with no new injuries of note to report on
this unit, while the Chargers list Keenan McCardell as questionable
due to his injured hamstring – Tim Dwight is also questionable (toe
injury).

The forecast for Qualcomm Stadium calls for a high of 61F with a low
of 51F and a 40% chance for rain. If the rain falls heavily at
game-time, the turf could get slick and muddy, making footing and
ball-handling more of a challenge than normal.

San Diego's passing attack is effective and efficient (Brees has 27
TDs vs. only 7 interceptions thrown this season, as detailed above),
while the Jets' defenders have been mediocre in this phase more often
than not, and are playing below-average defense to close the season.
Advantage, San Diego.



Seattle's Passing Attack vs. The St. Louis Defense (Neutral Matchup)

Matt Hasselbeck has been on-and-off against the Rams to date this
season, with a decent 20/35 for 216 yards, 2 TDs and 0 interceptions
performance in the first show-down (week 5) – he misfired in the week
10 game, though, with 15/36 for 172 yards, 0 TDs and 1 interception to
his credit. Darrell Jackson (5/91/1), Koren
"Team-Rules-Don't-Apply-To-Me" Robinson (5/59/0) and Jerramy Stevens
(3/33/1) were the top receivers in week 5; Jackson had 3/33/0 in the
week 10 loss, while Robinson was in his final appearance of the 2004
regular season before his string of 7 straight weeks on the sidelines,
snagging 2/50/0 (but dropping many other catchable balls) – Stevens
had 3/34/0 in the second game vs. St. Louis.

During the final 3 weeks of 2004, Hasselbeck missed a game in week 16
due to a bum elbow, managing 43/57 for 392 yards, 4 TDs and 2
interceptions in the other 2 games (12th-best fantasy QB in fantasy
points per game during that span), including last week's 21/27 for 191
yards, 2 TDs and 1 interception performance vs. the Falcons. The
most-thrown-to Seahawks during the closing 3 weeks of the season were
Darrell Jackson (22 for 13/164/1) and Bobby Engram (14 for 11/121/0)
–TE Itula Mili saw 11 targets for 7/80/0, while Jerramy Stevens was
targeted 5 times for 4/23/2 during that span – Jerry Rice has managed
only 9 for 3/25/1.

The Rams have been playing fairly stubbornly in this phase of the game
lately, with an average of 155 passing yards and 1.0 thrown TDs
surrendered per game during the final 4 regular season games, which is
a significant improvement over their season average of 198.4 passing
yards allowed per game (11th in the NFL) – the team has coughed up 24
passing TDs in 16 games to date. Chad Pennington managed 21/36 for 181
yards passing, with 1 TD and 0 interceptions to his credit last week.

The Rams report a clean bill of health in this phase of the game,
while the Seahawks say that WR Jerheme Urban (foot) is out; TE Itula
Mili is questionable (thigh); and WR Darrell Jackson is probable
(hamstring).

The forecast for Qwest Field calls for a high of 41F with a low of 33F
and a 30% chance of snow showers. If the snow falls thickly around
game-time, visibility, footing and ball-handling could become issues
during the contest.

Hasselbeck experienced mixed results vs. the Rams this season –
meanwhile, St. Louis has come on in this phase of the game over the
final 4 weeks of 2004. Home-field advantage will help the Seahawks,
but they don't have an edge over St. Louis in this phase of the game.
We think the units are fairly evenly matched.



Denver's Passing Attack vs. The Indianapolis Defense (Neutral Matchup)

Denver played Indianapolis in week 17 at Mile High Stadium, but the
Colts sat a lot of their key players during the game, which was
meaningless for the Colts. Jake Plummer managed 17/30 for 246 yards, 2
TDs and 0 interceptions vs. the Colts' "B" team in the course of the
Denver victory. It was a different story in the playoffs last year
(the game was played in the RCA Dome, as this game will be), when the
Colts waxed the Broncos 41-10 – Jake Plummer hit for 23/30 for 181
yards, 1 TD and 2 interceptions during the contest (Rod Smith had
5/66/1 in the playoff game – Ashley Lelie was a non-factor with
1/7/0).

Over the past 3 weeks, Plummer has bounced back from a horrible
mid-to-late season slump (1 TD and 7 interceptions during weeks 12-14)
to post 61/97 for 841 yards, 5 TDs and 3 interceptions (16/72/1
rushing) – but those final three games were against the
cellar-dwelling and injury-shattered Titans (26th pass defense in the
NFL this season), the awful Chiefs (32nd in the NFL in pass D this
season) and the Colts' "B" team – not exactly a challenging slate of
opponents. In the course of his late-season surge, Plummer threw 25
balls to Rod Smith (18/209/2), 18 to Ashley Lelie (9/195/1) and 13 to
TE Jeb Putzier (10/157/0) – no-one else on the team had more than 7
balls come their way during the final 3 weeks.

Indianapolis has been somewhat improved in this phase of the game
during the closing weeks of 2004, allowing an average of 213 passing
yards per contest (down from their season average of 243.3 passing
yards allowed per game, which ranked 29th in the NFL this season).
They are still generous with points in this phase, though, giving up
an average of 2.0 passing TDs per game during the past 4 weeks –
that's how many Plummer hit for last week, as mentioned above.

The Broncos come into the game listing reserve WR Triandos Luke as
probable to play (concussion). Indianapolis reports CB Jason David as
questionable (foot), while S Idrees Bashir (hamstring) and CB Nick
Harper (back) are both probable to play.

This game is to be played in the RCA Dome – weather won't be a factor
in this contest.

Plummer and the Broncos managed to generate some momentum in the
closing weeks of the regular season, but they did so against highly
suspect defenses – the Colts have been improving in this phase of the
game, and they have the home-field advantage to draw upon – this
matchup looks pretty even to us: neither unit is particularly powerful
in this phase of the game.



Indianapolis' Passing Attack vs. The Denver Defense (Neutral Matchup)

Peyton Manning sat out for all but 2 passing attempts vs. Denver last
week (Edgerrin James had 1 carry for -2 yards in the game) – we won't
see Jim Sorgi under center this week, though, unless the game is a
complete catastrophe for Indianapolis. Manning shredded the Broncos
the last time he played them in the RCA Dome, in the first round of
the 2003 playoffs, with 22/26 for 377 yards, 5 TDs and 0 interceptions
– he's thrown for 49 TDs and only 10 interceptions this year (336/497
for 4557 yards in a little over 15 games of playing-time).

The Colts are the first team in NFL history to have 3 receivers go
over 1,000 yards receiving and 10 TDs each during a single regular
season. Peyton Manning set the NFL record for TDs thrown in a season
with 49, and he only needed 15 games to set the record. With 48/79 for
638 yards, 3 TDs and 1 interception in his final 2-plus-a-cameo games,
Manning ranks 22nd among fantasy QBs in fantasy points per game during
the final 3 weeks of the regular season – the Colts won 8 of their
last 9 contests, including a week 16 matchup against San Diego in
which Manning tossed 27/44 for 383 yards, 2 TDs and 1 interception.
Don't be fooled by the modest end-of-the-year statistics Manning put
up in the closing weeks – he's as hot as they come in the NFL this
year, and there is no reason to suspect he'll suddenly "lose it" vs.
Denver this week.

Denver's pass defense has been pretty stout this year, with an average
of 184.2 passing yards allowed per game (6th in the NFL), and 17 total
TDs given up in 16 games. They've been pacing 148 passing yards and
1.2 TDs given up per contest over the final 4 weeks of the season,
including allowing 17/27 for 174 yards, 2 TDs and 0 interceptions to
the Jim Sorgi-led Colts last week. Most teams have struggled against
the Broncos this season.

The Colts list TEs Marcus Pollard (ankle, questionable) and Dallas
Clark (head/concussion/probable) and WRs Troy Walters (head,
questionable) and Brandon Stokley (foot/probable). CB Roc Alexander
(ankle) and S John Lynch (thumb) are listed as probable to play by
Denver.

This game is to be played in the RCA Dome – weather won't be a factor
in this contest.

The top-shelf Denver defenders have been really solid in this phase of
the game during 2004 – Peyton Manning has a ton of talent surrounding
him and home-field advantage at his back, in addition to a level of
confidence rarely seen at his position. We think the Colts will play
well in this game, but the Broncos won't make it easy. Two top squads
face off in this game.



Quick Index:

Great Matchups:

None this week.

Good Matchups:

St. Louis' Steven Jackson/Marshall Faulk vs. The Seattle Defense (Good Matchup)
Seattle's Shaun Alexander vs. The St. Louis Defense (Good Matchup)
Indianapolis' Edgerrin James vs. The Denver Defense (Good Matchup)
Minnesota's Michael Bennett/Onterrio Smith vs. The Green Bay Defense
(Good Matchup)
Green Bay's Ahman Green vs. The Minnesota Defense (Good Matchup)

Neutral Matchups:

New York Jets' Curtis Martin vs. The San Diego Defense (Neutral Matchup)
San Diego's LaDainian Tomlinson vs. The New York Jets' Defense (Neutral Matchup)
Denver's Tatum Bell/Reuben Droughns vs. The Indianapolis Defense
(Neutral Matchup)

Tough Matchups:

None this week.

Bad Matchups:

None this week.



St. Louis' Steven Jackson/Marshall Faulk vs. The Seattle Defense (Good Matchup)

Over the previous two games vs. Seattle, Steven Jackson put up 5/64/0
rushing and 2/11/0 receiving in week 5, to lead the team in rushing,
and followed that performance up with 10/47/1 rushing and 1/9/0
receiving during the week 10 clash. Marshall Faulk managed 15/51/0
rushing and 1/4/0 receiving in the first game, with 18/139/0 rushing
and 5/21/0 receiving during the week 10 matchup.

Over the past 3 weeks, coach Mike Martz has continued his season-long
pattern of erratically utilizing his running backs. Last week, the
Rams rushed for 19/47/1 as a team (they threw 39 passes), with Steven
Jackson leading the way with 10/29/1 on the ground. 2 weeks ago,
against the Philadelphia reserves, the Rams threw the ball 28 times,
but rushed for 44/209/1, with Jackson leading the way on 24/148/1
(Faulk had 17/54/0 on the ground). 3 weeks ago, in a 31-7 drubbing at
the hands of lowly Arizona, Marshall Faulk carried the ball a grand
total of 10 times for 22 yards (the team only tried those 10 rushing
plays) while the team attempted 36 passes (Bulger was out due to
injury). Only people with functioning crystal balls can predict when
the Rams will remember to hand off the ball to their running backs on
a consistent basis.

Seattle's rush defense has been anything but stellar lately, allowing
an average of 168 rushing yards and 1.2 scores on the ground over the
past 4 weeks – that's significantly worse than their season average of
126.9 rushing yards allowed per game (17 rushing scores given away in
16 games). Last week, Atlanta trampled the Seahawks for 38/204/0
(25/132/0 to Warrick Dunn as the featured back). It's pretty easy to
run the ball on the battered Seahawk's defensive front.

Speaking of injuries, the Seahawk list DT Marcus Tubbs (ankle, out)
and DE Grant Wistrom (knee, doubtful) along with LB Niko Koutouvides
(knee, questionable) this week. Neither Tubbs nor Wistrom has played
for several weeks in a row. The Rams' unit reports RB Arlen Harris
(hamstring, doubtful) and G Tom Nutten (knee, doubtful) on Wednesday.

The forecast for Qwest Field calls for a high of 41F with a low of 33F
and a 30% chance of snow showers. If the snow falls thickly around
game-time, visibility, footing and ball-handling could become issues
during the contest.

The Rams are capable of moving the ball on the ground when they desire
to do so (tied for 11th in the NFL averaging 4.3 yards per carry),
while the Seahawks don't do much to stop the opposition in this phase
of the game – the question is, will the Rams utilize their edge on the
ground?



Seattle's Shaun Alexander vs. The St. Louis Defense (Good Matchup)

Shaun Alexander has ripped up the Rams during both previous games this
season, with 23/150/1 rushing and 1/4/0 receiving during their week 5
contest. He followed up with 22/176/0 rushing and 1/3/0 receiving
during the week 10 clash. The guy finished 1 yard short of the NFL
rushing title (353/1696/16 rushing with 23/170/4 receiving during
regular season), which sparked a well-documented tantrum on
Alexander's part after last week's game. He later apologized profusely
but we'll see if this flare up will bleed into this playoff contest.

Over the last 3 weeks, Alexander's productivity has been at typically
high levels, with 68/311/4 rushing and 6/34/0 receiving to his credit,
including last week's 19/80/1 rushing and 2/15/0 receiving vs.
Atlanta. Seattle is tied for 4th in the NFL averaging 4.5 yards per
carry this year, evidence of an elite run-blocking offensive line.
Alexander appears to be primed for a good performance on Saturday, if
he can maintain his poise.

St. Louis' rush defense has been decent (but not spectacular) during
the closing weeks of 2004, allowing  an average of 115 rushing yards
and .6 TDs per contest during the final 4 games. Those numbers
represent an improvement over their season average of 136.2 rushing
yards given up per contest (29th in the NFL) – they gave away 13
rushing scores in 16 games. Last week, though, Curtis Martin stuffed
28/153/0 down the Rams' throats (39/180/0 as a team) – the St. Louis
defensive front is back on their heels coming into this contest.

The Rams list DEs Tyoka Jackson (ankle) and Leonard Little (groin) as
questionable, while LB Brandon Chillar (shoulder) and DE Bryce Fisher
(ankle) are probable to play. G Jerry Wunsch (illness) is the lone
Seahawk from this squad on the report – he's probable to play on
Saturday.

The forecast for Qwest Field calls for a high of 41F with a low of 33F
and a 30% chance of snow showers. If the snow falls thickly around
game-time, visibility, footing and ball-handling could become issues
during the contest.

Alexander has owned the Rams in both previous contests, and comes into
the game in good shape physically – can he maintain his focus and
exploit this obvious opportunity to excel? We think so – advantage,
Seahawks.



Indianapolis' Edgerrin James vs. The Denver Defense (Good Matchup)

Edgerrin James took one hand-off in last week's game, and then grabbed
some bench as a precautionary move by the already-playoff-bound Colts.
The last time he saw the Broncos in the RCA Dome, during the 2003
Wild-Card round, James racked up 17/78/0 rushing and 5/37/0 receiving
while Peyton Manning exploded for 22/26 for 377 yards passing, with 5
TDs and 0 interceptions.

Over the final 3 weeks of the season (2 games plus 1 carry last week),
James amassed 45/153/1 rushing and 6/64/0 receiving – he isn't on a
huge roll heading into this game. The Colts average 4.3 yards per
carry this season (tied for 11th in the NFL) – James' mark is at 4.6
yards per carry, though – and he has 334/1548/9 rushing and 51/483/0
receiving to his credit over the course of the season. He's one of the
top running backs in the league this year (9th fantasy RB to date in
fantasy points per game).

Denver has been fairly tough in this phase of the game in the closing
weeks, with an average of 89 rushing yards allowed per game, but they
also gave up 1.2 TDs per contest during that span. The team was 4th in
the NFL during regular season, allowing an average of 94.5 rushing
yards per game, but they did cough up 16 rushing scores in 16 games –
the Broncos are a good, but not great, rush defense this season.

The Bronco's DE Trevor Pryce could only manage a few plays last week
before being pulled due to his bad back (probable this week), and
fellow DE Anton Palepoi has a sore shoulder (probable). The Colts' G
Rick DeMulling has been struggling with a painful rib injury during
recent weeks (questionable this week), and sat out last week vs.
Denver.

This game is to be played in the RCA Dome – weather won't be a factor
in this contest.

The Colts have a fine running back in Edgerrin James, and he's been
effective vs. the Broncos in the past – Denver brings a good run
defense to the table, but they will be hard-pressed by James and
company. This game looks like a good matchup for a dual-threat back
like James, especially given the Broncos' vulnerability in the
red-zone.



Minnesota's Michael Bennett/Onterrio Smith vs. The Green Bay Defense
(Good Matchup)

Michael Bennett (5/21/0) and Onterrio Smith (5/21/0 with 2/13/1
receiving) led the Vikings in rushing during the first match between
these teams (during week 10) – the Vikings only carried the ball 16
times in the first game, for 71 rushing yards as a team. When the week
16 match was complete, the Vikings had 24/131/0 as a team, featuring
Michael Bennett (17/92/0 rushing with 3/67/1 receiving) – Onterrio
Smith did not touch the ball during the second contest vs. Green Bay.

Over the past 3 weeks, Michael Bennett has re-emerged as the Vikings'
top running back (he has a lot of "juice" right now, according to
coach Tice) – he has totaled 38/162/0 rushing and 9/142/1 receiving
(26th fantasy RB during that span), while Moe Williams threw down
6/20/1 rushing and 3/50/0 receiving in his change-of-pace role (49th
fantasy RB in the land during the past 3 weeks). As of mid-week, the
word from offensive coordinator Scott Linehan was as follows "It
couldn't be a better draw for us. I'm sure they feel the same way, as
far as knowing their opponent. We always spend a little extra time on
Green Bay in the offseason, so we know this opponent pretty well. It
really hasn't changed." Given that the team has chosen to rely on
Bennett in the season's crucial closing weeks, we expect to see the
majority of the work flowing to Bennett on Sunday.

Green Bay's rush defense has been porous to close the NFL season,
allowing an average of 145 rushing yards and 1.0 rushing scores per
contest during the final 4 games. That's significantly worse than
their season average of 117.4 rushing yards allowed per game, with 12
total TDs over 16 games – the Packers are headed in the wrong
direction in this phase. Lowly Chicago hung 27/110/2 on the defensive
front last week – Green Bay is vulnerable to a determined rushing
attack coming into the Wild Card round of the playoffs.

The Vikings list RB Moe Williams as probable to play despite a sore
ankle. Green Bay reports DT Grady Jackson (knee) and LB Paris Lenon
(elbow) as probable to play as of Wednesday. Injuries aren't a huge
factor for either squad this week.

The forecast for Lambeau Field calls for a high of 35F with a low of
28F and a 10% chance of snow on Sunday. That's considered sub-tropical
weather in Wisconsin during the month of January.

Green Bay's defense has been playing poorly in this phase of the game,
while the Vikings have transitioned back to a reliable veteran to
power their attack – considering the Vikings' excellent offensive line
(the team was second in the NFL this season averaging 4.7 yards per
carry), we give the nod to the visitors in this matchup.



Green Bay's Ahman Green vs. The Minnesota Defense (Good Matchup)

In the first clash vs. Minnesota, back in week 10, Ahman Green owned
the Vikings, totaling 21/145/0 rushing (the team had 35/206/0), and he
added 2/7/0 receiving. As of week 16, Green managed 19/64/1 rushing
and 4/26/0 receiving (the Packers totaled 34/102/1 rushing as a team).
It's fair to say that the Packers were up and down vs. Minnesota in
2004.

Over the past 3 weeks, Green saw action in a little over 2 games
(4/13/0 rushing, 1/23/0 receiving vs. Chicago last week before Tony
Fisher took over with 19/42/0 and 3/23/0 receiving) – he's piled up
40/171/1 rushing and 7/60/0 receiving in his appearances, which puts
him at #27 among all fantasy RBs during the final 3 weeks of the
regular season. He has totaled 259/1163/7 rushing and 40/275/1
receiving this season, putting him a #17 among all fantasy RBs in
fantasy points per game – Green hasn't been as powerful a fantasy
force as he was during 2003. The Packers are tied for 11th in the NFL
with an average of 4.3 yards per carry this season.

Minnesota closed the regular season averaging 123 rushing yards and .6
rushing TDs allowed per game (over the final 4 games), which is on
pace for the team considering their season average of 125.4 rushing
yards allowed per contest (21st in the NFL), with 15 scores
surrendered in 16 games. The Vikings play mediocre-to-sub-par rush
defense on any given Sunday. Last week they coughed up 26/118/1 to
Ladell Betts (31/117/1 to the Redskins as a team) – right about where
you'd expect the Vikings to be, given the statistical data in both
short- and long-term.

The Vikings report their unit in fine fettle, with no new injuries of
note. Green Bay's squad has been nursing various ailments – Najeh
Davenport has a sore shoulder (probable), while RB Vonta Leach has a
sore shin/ankle (probable).

The forecast for Lambeau Field calls for a high of 35F with a low of
28F and a 10% chance of snow on Sunday. That's considered sub-tropical
weather in Wisconsin during the month of January.

Look for Green and company to find room to maneuver vs. the mediocre
Viking's defensive front.



New York Jets' Curtis Martin vs. The San Diego Defense (Neutral Matchup)

Curtis Martin tore up the 3rd-ranked Chargers rush defense (they
averaged 81.7 rushing yards allowed per game during regular season)
back in week 2, managing 32/119/2 rushing with 6/25/0 receiving. He
ended the season with the NFL rushing crown, totaling 371/1697/12 on
the ground – he added 41/245/2 receiving this year.

Curtis Martin stuffed 28/153/0 down the Rams' throats last week, and
piled up 65/320/2 rushing and 7/66/0 receiving in the final 3 games of
regular season – he's an elite running back coming into the playoffs
on a roll. With concerns surrounding the Jets' passing game, there is
every reason to expect the team to lean on Martin heavily this week.

The Chargers closed the regular season averaging 87 rushing yards
allowed per game over the last 4 games, with .6 TDs allowed per
contest during that span. They drilled Larry Johnson last week
(17/46/1) and held the Chiefs to 20/70/1 rushing as a team – the same
Chiefs who were 3rd in the regular season averaging 4.6 yards per
carry, and 5th in total rushing yards (2289 as a team). The Chargers
field an elite rush defense, folks.

The Jets come into this game ready to play, while the Chargers report
a similarly clean bill of health. Injuries aren't a big factor in this
matchup.

The forecast for Qualcomm Stadium calls for a high of 61F with a low
of 51F and a 40% chance for rain. If the rain falls heavily at
game-time, the turf could get slick and muddy, making footing and
ball-handling more of a challenge than normal.

Curtis Martin is the most productive rusher in the NFL this year – the
Chargers field a top 5 rush defense that has home-field advantage at
their back. This looks like an even matchup between the some of the
best squads the NFL has to offer.



San Diego's LaDainian Tomlinson vs. The New York Jets' Defense (Neutral Matchup)

LaDainian Tomlinson gave his all vs. the Jets back in week 2, gaining
19/87/1 rushing and 3/76/0 receiving (with a long of 59) during the
game (the Jets won 34 – 28). Since then, Tomlinson has piled up
339/1335/17 rushing and 53/441/1 receiving during 15 regular season
contests. He's one of the NFL's premier talents at his position.

Over the past 3 weeks, Tomlinson saw action in 2 games, with 47/192/3
rushing and 6/90/1 receiving (he was the #2 fantasy RB in fantasy
points per game during the closing weeks of the regular season). The
Chargers average 4.2 yards per carry as a team (Tomlinson averages
just a shade under 4.0, with 3.93 yards per carry to his credit in
2004) – that team average is 10th out of the 12 playoff teams, but is
still above the 4.0 benchmark that is considered "average" for NFL
rushing attacks.

The Jets deploy a top-5 defensive front, averaging 97.9 rushing yards
allowed per game during regular season, with only 8 rushing scores
surrendered this season over 16 games. Their pace in the final ¼ of
the season was 90 rushing yards allowed per game, with .6 rushing
scores surrendered – they are among the league's best run defenders,
as you can see. St. Louis managed a mere 19/47/1 vs. the Jets last
week – New York comes into this game at the top of their considerable
talents.

The Jets list DE John Abraham as probable to play (knee), but expect
to utilize him in passing situations almost exclusively. "I don't want
him to try to play on a bad wheel 60 plays. I'll put him in some
situations where he can pass rush and do his deal." – the Jets'
defensive coordinator Donnie Henderson on Abrahams' prospects for
playing this week. LB Kenyatta Wright is questionable (ankle) The
Chargers come into this game in good health, considering the stage of
the season, listing RB Jesse Chatman as probable to play (toe).

The forecast for Qualcomm Stadium calls for a his of 61F with a low of
51F and a 40% chance for rain. If the rain falls heavily at game-time,
the turf could get slick and muddy, making footing and ball-handling
more of a challenge than normal.

Tomlinson is an elite running back, but his OL is run-blocking at
just-above-average levels – the Jets play run defense at an elite
level, but don't have the 12th man at their back this week – this
looks like an even matchup to us, with neither squad holding a
decisive edge over the other.



Denver's Tatum Bell/Reuben Droughns vs. The Indianapolis Defense
(Neutral Matchup)

Last week, the Colts played their "B" team during their visit to Mile
High Stadium – the Broncos' tandem racked up 16/91/0 (Tatum Bell) and
15/76/0 (Reuben Droughns) respectively – Plummer added 7/15/1 and the
Broncos ended the day with 42/214/1 rushing. During their 2003 playoff
game vs. Indianapolis, the Broncos were starting Clinton Portis at RB
– recent playoff history won't tell us much about this matchup.

Over the past 3 weeks, the Denver "Dynamic Duo" have split the
workload basically in half, with Reuben Droughns seeing 41/194/2
rushing and 4/44/1 receiving, while Tatum Bell has racked up 37/185/0
rushing and 4/86/0 receiving in his touches – you can't get much more
even than that. Reports out of Denver this week indicate that the team
may prefer to hand off to Bell in Indianapolis, on the artificial turf
in the RCA Dome – goal-line situations are a situation where Droughns
is likely to be in the lineup, though. The Broncos attack has become a
two-headed monster in the waning moments of the regular season, which
makes both backs less valuable from the fantasy perspective.

Indianapolis' rush defense has been soft in the later weeks of the
regular season, allowing an average of 146 rushing yards and .6 TDs
per game during the final 4 games. That picture is consistent with
their season tendency to allow a generous amount of yardage (an
average of 127.3 rushing yards per contest), but to clamp down in the
red-zone – the team gave up 12 rushing scores in 16 games. Neither
Bronco running back scored a TD last week, as noted above (although
Plummer did hit pay-dirt).

The Broncos list G Dan Neil as questionable to play due to his balky
knee, but he hasn't been a significant contributor for several weeks.
Tatum Bell is not listed (separated shoulder a few weeks ago), but FB
Kyle Johnson is listed (ankle, questionable). Indianapolis lists LBs
Gilbert Gardner (shoulder, out) and Rob Morris (head/concussion,
probable) this week, and also reports DE Robert Mathis (groin,
probable) and LB Gary Brackett (hamstring/thigh, probable).

This game is to be played in the RCA Dome – weather won't be a factor
in this contest.

The Broncos should find some room to roam vs. the Colts, but scoring
may be a different matter – with the home-crowd backing up the
defense, we see this as a fairly even contest between
middle-of-the-road squads.