Mark Wimer/Joe Bryant - Passing Matchups

PLEASE NOTE: This does NOT replace the Cheatsheet ranking. The Cheatsheet rankings are the final say on where we see a player for that week. The Matchup Breakdowns are simply one more tool in the box when it comes to helping choose your lineup.

Also note, just because a player has a "bad" matchup, it does NOT mean he's not a starter in your league. If Peyton Manning is playing the toughest pass defense in the league, that just means he's got a tough matchup that week. He's also your starter unless you're loaded at QB. In the same way, if the worst RB on your roster has a "great" matchup that week, it doesn't necessarily mean he's your starter. It means we think he'll fare better than normal that week.

Bottom line is that the cheatsheets are the final say.

Let's jump to it.

Joe

Championship Weekend Rushing and Passing Matchups

By Mark Wimer with Joe Bryant

Passing Quick Index

Good Matchups

Philadelphia's Passing Attack vs. The Atlanta Defense (Good Matchup)

Neutral Matchups

Pittsburgh's Passing Attack vs. The New England Defense (Neutral Matchup)

Tough Matchups

New England's Passing Attack vs. The Pittsburgh Defense (Tough Matchup)
Atlanta's Passing Attack vs. The Philadelphia Defense (Tough Matchup)

New England's Passing Attack vs. The Pittsburgh Defense (Tough Matchup)

During the first game between New England and Pittsburgh, the Steelers sprinted to a 21-3 first-quarter lead - with Corey Dillon sidelined by injury for the week 8 matchup, the team basically abandoned the run and relied on Tom Brady's arm (25/43 for 271 yards, 2 TDs and 2 interceptions was his tally at the end of the game). CB Deshea Townsend returned one of Brady's interceptions for a Steelers' TD. The Patriots were not at the top of their game vs. Pittsburgh, as you can see. WR David Givens led the Patriots in receiving during the Halloween defeat, snagging 8/101/2.

Tom Brady was in control during the Patriots' first playoff game, hitting 10 different receivers en route to his 18/27 for 144 yards, 1 TD and 0 interception performance vs. Indianapolis. Deon Branch (3 targets for 1/15/0) and David Patten (2 for 1/12/0), Brady's favorite targets during the closing weeks of the regular season, had a limited impact - the team's leading receiver was David Givens (4/26/1 out of 8 balls thrown his way) - but considering that 7 of the 10 players to catch passes from Brady only hauled in 1 ball, their modest numbers were not atypical last week. TE Daniel Graham snagged his 1/10/0 late in the game - he wasn't a force in the red-zone during the divisional playoff game.

The Steelers held Chad Pennington to 21/33 for 182 yards, 0 TDs and 1 interception during last week's playoff game (the Jets' offense did not score a TD vs. the Steelers' defense during the game - New York's TDs came on a punt return and an interception return). Pittsburgh was the league's 4th-ranked pass defense during 2004, allowing an average of 177.2 passing yards per game (Pittsburgh allowed the least yards per game and the least passing scores (14) among all 12 playoff teams) - the 14 passing scores they surrendered during regular season tied them for least-scored-upon pass defense (Baltimore was the other team). They tied for 7th in the league with 41 sacks in 16 games (they added 3 to their total last week vs. the Jets) - any way you slice it, the Steelers field a fearsome pass D. (Over the final 4 weeks of the regular season, the defense averaged 196 passing yards allowed per game, with .6 thrown TDs allowed per contest. The Steelers maintained their top-5 pace during the divisional round of the playoffs, and they look ready for whatever the Patriots try to throw at them. The boisterous home crowd was deafening for much of the game last week, and will be sure that New England hears them this week as well - audibles are very difficult in the face of such clamor.

The Steelers list CB Deshea Townsend as probable to play despite his injured hand. New England is in good shape, with no new injuries of note to report on Wednesday.

The forecast for Heinz Field calls for a high of 24F and a low of 14F with a 60% chance for precipitation. In such wintry conditions, footing, ball-handling and visibility are likely to be issues during the game. However, both teams come from cold-weather climates and play their home games in outdoor stadiums - the Steelers and the Patriots are accustomed to these conditions.

Brady and company took what the Colts gave to them last week - the question is, what will they be allowed by the Steelers this week? Not much, probably - advantage, Pittsburgh.

Pittsburgh's Passing Attack vs. The New England Defense (Neutral Matchup)

During these teams' week 8 contest, Ben Roethlisberger enjoyed one of his strongest performances of the season, throwing for 18/24 for 196 yards, 2 TDs and 0 interceptions. The Steelers shot out of the gates and claimed a 21-3 lead by the end of the first quarter, thanks to Plaxico Burress' nose for the end-zone (3/63/2 - he grabbed both scores during the first period).

Roethlisberger ran hot and cold during the Steeler's first playoff game, ending the day with 17/30 for 181 yards, 1 TD and 2 interceptions. He only managed 4/12 passing during the first half, but finished the game with 13/18 during the latter stages of the game. Hines Ward led the team with 14 targets for 10/105/1, while Plaxico Burress was largely held in check (7 targets for 2/28/0). Antwaan Randle-El (2 for 1/6/0) and Lee Mays (2/19/0 out of his 3 chances) chipped in a few plays, while the team's TEs didn't see a single pass last week. Roethlisberger came into the playoffs with 32/47 for 537 yards, 3 TDs and 3 interceptions in his final two games of the regular season - he's been pretty mediocre during his last 3 outings, as you can see.

The Patriot's pass defense made a statement last week, limiting the league's MVP to 27/42 for 238 yards, 0 TDs and 1 interception - much of Manning's yardage was amassed in the final minutes of the game, when the Patriots dropped 7 and even 8 defenders deep to deny the Colts a shot at long, quick scoring passes. It was a very impressive defensive effort, to say the least - the high-flying Colts managed a mere 3 points during the entire game (and only held the ball for 22:17 - they did not sustain drives often vs. New England last week). The Patriots slipped to the middle of the NFL pack in pass D this past year, averaging 212.5 passing yards allowed per game (17th in the NFL) with 18 TDs given up in 16 games. The Patriots were 3rd in the NFL with 45 sacks during the regular season, but they only managed 1 last week vs. Indianapolis (a combination of the Colt's fine OL, Manning's quick release, and the lack of DL Richard Seymour on New England's part contributed to the scarcity of sacks).They allowed an average of 233 passing yards and 1.6 passing TDs per game during the final 4 regular season games - Manning managed to get above the 233 yard mark, but couldn't find pay dirt last week. The Patriots' defenders made key plays when the team needed to stop the Colts, capped by the Rodney Harrison interception of Manning on the Colts' final drive.

The Patriots list DE Richard Seymour (knee) as questionable, while the Steelers come into the game in relatively good health, listing only WR Antwaan Randle-El (toe, probable)

The Steeler's quarterback was inconsistent in his first career playoff game, and relied heavily on Hines Ward - but he had good success against the Patriots during their first game. The Patriots come into this game off a resounding success, after stifling the QB who had the finest season in league history passing the football - but they won't have the "12th man" to back up the defense this week. This looks like a clash between fairly evenly matched units to us - we call it a neutral matchup as neither team holds a big edge over the other from our viewpoint.

Atlanta's Passing Attack vs. The Philadelphia Defense (Tough Matchup)

This game marks the first time the Eagles' defenders have seen the Falcons' offense in a game during the 04-05 season. They won't learn much about the Falcons' passing personnel from watching last week's tapes - Vick only need to throw the ball 16 times (12/16 for 82 yards, 2 TDs and 0 interceptions) on a day when the Falcons rushed for 40/327/3 as a team (Vick had 8/119/0 rushing to his credit). Peerless Price (3 targets for 3/22/1) and Alge Crumpler (3 targets for 2/22/1) made their limited chances count, as each hauled in a TD during the 47-17 rout of St. Louis. The two are the primary receivers on the team, when Vick bothers to throw. 7 players caught passes from Vick during the game, but no-one snagged more than 3 receptions or exceeded 22 yards receiving. The bottom line last week was that the Falcons didn't really need to pass much at all, given how dominantly their offensive linemen and the team's rushers played on the ground last week. Considering that the Falcons were the NFL's top-rushing team during regular season, but ranked 30th in the league in passing yards (with 2691 over 16 games - they also threw only 15 TDs in 16 contests), we don't expect to see a sudden explosion of passing this week.

The Philadelphia pass defense is one of the better units in the NFL, and they displayed their prowess last week by slowing down the Viking's Daunte Culpepper in the red-zone (24/46 for 316 yards, but only 1 TD vs. 2 interceptions). The Eagles sacked Culpepper 3 times last week, adding to their regular-season total of 47 sacks (2nd-most sacks in the NFL last season) - the Falcons were tied for 5th-most sacks allowed during regular season, with 50 surrendered - Vick will need all of his agility during the coming game. The team put up above-average statistics during regular season, allowing 200.8 passing yards per game over 16 contests (12th in the NFL in that category), with a total of 16 passing scores given up in 16 games. They were right around that pace during the final 4 weeks of regular season, averaging 190.0 passing yards and 1.0 passing TDs given up per contest. Culpepper hit them for more yards than usual, but not more points, last week.

Atlanta does not list TE Alge Crumpler on the Wednesday injury report despite his injured knee (PCL). WR Brian Finneran is probable to play despite a sore wrist. The Eagles' list does not include any members of the secondary - both teams come into this game in decent shape.

The forecast for Lincoln Financial Field calls for a high of 26F and a low of 16F with a 60% chance for precipitation. Heavy snow is apossibility - more info here. In such wintry conditions, footing, ball-handling and visibility are likely to be issues during the game. Philadelphia's players are more accustomed to such weather than the dome-dwelling Falcons.

Atlanta utilizes a bare-bones approach in this phase of the game, while the Eagles are pretty stingy with points on any given Sunday, and they should rack up some negative yardage by sacking Vick. With the Eagles' fans sure to lend a big boost to the home-team, we see this as a tough matchup for Vick and company.

Philadelphia's Passing Attack vs. The Atlanta Defense (Good Matchup)

Philadelphia didn't clash with the Falcons this season - this game will be the first up-close-and-personal encounter between these squads.

Last week, Donovan McNabb picked apart the Vikings' secondary, ending the day with 21/33 for 286 yards, 2 TDs and 0 interceptions to his credit. Perennial under-achiever Freddie Mitchell played with high intensity last week, hauling in 5/65/1 on 9 targets (he fumbled at the goal-line after one of the receptions, costing the Eagles 6 points, but also recovered a fumble for a TD during the course of the game). TEs Greg Lewis (2/64/0 out of 4 targets) and L.J. Smith (5 targets for 4/52/0) were factors in the game. Todd Pinkston chipped in with 6 targets for 3/46/0. McNabb started the playoffs right where he left off during the regular season (300/470 for 3875 yards, 31 TDs and only 8 interceptions passing, with 42/221/3 rushing). With or without Terrell Owens (there are some rumors floating around that T.O. may try to play on Sunday), the Eagles are strong in this phase of the game.

Atlanta's secondary was sub-par this season, giving up an average of 220.4 passing yards per game (22nd in the NFL) with 19 passing scores surrendered in 16 games. They coughed up 195 passing yards and 1.2 passing TDs per contest over the final 4 weeks of regular season, closing the season by surrendering 21/27 for 191 yards, 2 TDs and 1 interception to the Seattle Seahawks. The Falcons continued their suspect play in this phase of the game during the divisional round of the playoffs, allowing 23/35 for 299 yards, 2 TDs and 1 interception to Marc Bulger and company. Pass defense is not one of the strengths of the Falcons' defensive squad, although they did lead the NFL with 48 sacks during regular season (the Eagles allowed 37 this year, tied for 16th in the NFL). The Falcons sacked Bulger 4 times last week for -37 yards - they aggressively attack the oppositions' QBs.

Starting CB Kevin Mathis sprained his ankle last week vs. the Rams, and could not continue to play in the game (questionable this week). The Eagles list Terrell Owens as out on Wednesday - despite the rumors. Other Eagles on the report include TEs Chad Lewis (triceps), G Jermane Mayberry (triceps), OT Jon Runyan (knee) and L. J. Smith (back) - as probable to play on Sunday.

The forecast for Lincoln Financial Field calls for a high of 26F and a low of 16F with a 60% chance for precipitation. Heavy snow is a possibility - more info here.
In such wintry conditions, footing, ball-handling and visibility are likely to be issues during the game. Philadelphia's players are more accustomed to such weather than the dome-dwelling Falcons.

The Falcons' secondary doesn't play particularly well in this phase of the game, while Donovan McNabb is one of the elite players at his position (and he comes into this game hot) - Advantage, Philadelphia.

Rushing Quick Index

Good Matchups

Atlanta's Warrick Dunn/Michael Vick/T. J. Duckett vs. The Philadelphia Defense (Good Matchup)
Philadelphia's Brian Westbrook/Dorsey Levens vs. The Atlanta Defense (Good Matchup)

Tough Matchups

New England's Corey Dillon/Kevin Faulk vs. The Pittsburgh Defense (Tough Matchup)
Pittsburgh's Jerome Bettis/Duce Staley vs. The New England Defense (Tough Matchup)

Atlanta's Warrick Dunn/Michael Vick/T. J. Duckett vs. The Philadelphia Defense (Good Matchup)

These two teams square off for the first time during 2004-05 in this matchup - they've only watched tape of each other to this point.

The Falcon's OL led the NFL in average yards per carry during 2004, generating 5.1 yards per rush as a team - the Falcon's attack is quite lethal in this phase of the game. The tandem of Dunn/Duckett/Vick generated the most rushing yards of any NFL team this past season - 2672 yards total, more than 200 yards rushing more than second-place Pittsburgh, who ground out 2464 rushing yards (but needed 618 carries to do so - the Falcons rushed 524 times this year). The Falcons are simply awesome in this phase of the game. They showed us just how powerful they are last week, jamming 40/327/3 down the Ram's throats and choking off St. Louis' playoff hopes with the football. The team averaged 8.2 yards per carry last week. The box score read 17/142/2 for Dunn (8.4 yards per carry with a long of 62), 8/119/0 for Vick (an astronomical 14.9 yards per carry, with a long of 47), with 15/66/1 for Duckett (a 4.4 yards per carry average, with a long of 13). Like we said, awesome.

The Eagles' rush defense was strictly average this season, allowing an average of 118.9 yards per game in this phase during regular season (13 rushing TDs surrendered in 16 games). They were on pace during the closing weeks of the regular season, surrendering an average of 115 rushing yards per game over the final 4 weeks of play, and averaged 1.2 rushing TDs surrendered per contest. They stiffened as they opened the playoffs however, as the Eagles contained the Viking's stable of backs, giving up only 16/72/0 to Michael Bennett/ Onterrio Smith/Mewelde Moore - Daunte Culpepper did score on the ground (5/25/1), though, and the team ended up with 21/97/1 rushing (a 4.6 yards per carry average). The Eagles rush defense played better than usual last week.

This week, the Falcons report T Todd Weiner (ankle, questionable) on their Wednesday injury list. The Eagles' LBs Mark Simoneau (ankle, questionable - he did practice on Wednesday), Dhani Jones (shoulder, probable) and Ike Reese (knee, probable) are all dinged up as of mid-week.

The forecast for Lincoln Financial Field calls for a high of 26F and a low of 16F with a 60% chance for precipitation. In such wintry conditions, footing, ball-handling and visibility are likely to be issues during the game. Heavy snow is a possibility - more info here. Philadelphia's players are more accustomed to such weather than the dome-dwelling Falcons.

The Eagles are only mediocre in this phase of the game, while the Falcons are superb. Home field advantage and the weather will both work in Philadelphia's favor, though - despite the intangibles, we still conclude that Atlanta has an edge over the Eagles in this phase of the game.

Philadelphia's Brian Westbrook/Dorsey Levens vs. The Atlanta Defense (Good Matchup)

These two teams square off for the first time during 2004-05 in this matchup - they've only watched tape of each other to this point.

The Eagles rushing offense posted 25/109/0 last week vs. the Viking's sub-par rush defense (12/70/0 for Brian Westbrook - a 5.8 yards per carry average, with a long of 15; 10/36/0 for Levens) - they did enough to keep the opposing defense honest, and set up the passing game for McNabb (Westbrook added 5/47/1 receiving, while Levens had 1/5/0). Levens had 10-12 rushes and 1 reception per game in weeks 15 and 16 (he rested week 17 along with all the other important offensive players) - he's been a useful change of pace/short-yardage back during the regular season, and should probably see another 10-13 touches this week, too. The Eagles' offense does not revolve around the rushing game, but they hand off the ball enough to keep a credible threat to run the ball in the opposing defender's minds. With a 4.4 yards per carry average to their credit during regular season, they were well above the NFL average (tied for 8th in the NFL).

The Falcons were the NFL's 8th ranked rush defense during 2004, allowing an average of 105.1 rushing yards per game. However, the Falcons are very soft in this phase of the game around the goal-line, surrendering 20 rushing scores in 16 games, which was the third-most in the NFL last year. They coughed up 113 rushing yards and 1.4 TDs per contest over the final 4 weeks of the regular season to boot. The pass-addicted Rams only handed off the ball 16 times to their runningbacks during the Falcons' 47-17 drubbing of St. Louis last week (managing 18/77/0 as a team, including an end-around by Dane Looker and a scramble by Bulger) - the Falcons' run defense wasn't tested very thoroughly last week, but they did limit the Rams' runners to mediocre yardage and no points.

The Eagles list T Jon Runyan (knee, probable) and G Jermane Mayberry (triceps, probable) - Mayberry has been playing with the triceps problem for most of the season. DE Travis Hall (chest, questionable) is hurting as of Wednesday and missed that day's practice.

The forecast for Lincoln Financial Field calls for a high of 26F and a low of 16F with a 60% chance for precipitation. Heavy snow is a possibility - more info here. In such wintry conditions, footing, ball-handling and visibility are likely to be issues during the game. Philadelphia's players are more accustomed to such weather
than the dome-dwelling Falcons.

The Eagles don't emphasize the running game, while the Falcons don't excel at keeping the runners out of the endzone. When they do run the ball, though, the Eagles tend to be successful - note Westbrook's 5.8 ypc average last week. With home-field advantage at their back, we give the nod to Philadelphia in this phase of the game.

Pittsburgh's Jerome Bettis/Duce Staley vs. The New England Defense (Tough Matchup)

The last time these teams clashed, back in week 8 of the regular season, Duce Staley headlined with 25/125/0 rushing, while Bettis handled the ball 15 times for 65 yards and 1 TD (the Steelers punched the ball into the Patriots' faces 49 times for 221 yards and 1 score as a team during the game). The Steelers held the ball for 42:58 seconds during that game as a result of their ball-control attack, and as a result of the Patriot's ineffectiveness in the ground phase without Corey Dillon.

As we expected, Jerome Bettis continued in the featured RB role last week, racking up his 3rd 100+ yard game in his last 3 appearances (27/101/1 rushing, with 1/21/0 receiving), while Duce Staley contributed in a change-of-pace role (11/54/0 rushing) - the team compiled 43/193/1 rushing vs. the Jets' 5th-ranked rush D last week. The early word out of Pittsburgh this week is that Bettis will start again this week, but that coach Cowher would like to get some more action for Staley as he looked pretty sharp last week despite lingering discomfort from his hamstring injury. The Steelers were second only to the Falcons in rushing yards from scrimmage this season (2464 yards total), and carried the ball 618 times while attempting 358 passes during regular season - there should be plenty of work to go around amongst Bettis and Staley this week. As noted above, both backs enjoyed solid outings vs. the Patriots during week 8 of the regular season.

New England closed the regular season averaging 88 rushing yards and .8 rushing scores surrendered per contest over the final 4 games, including their season finale (35/135/0 allowed to San Francisco's limp offense). The Patriots were 6th in the NFL this season, allowing an average of 98.3 rushing yards and a total of only 9 rushing TDs, and they frustrated the Colt's Edgerrin James on the ground last week (14/39/0 rushing). The Patriot's elite corps of LBs - OLB's Willie McGinest and Mike Vrabel, ILBs Tedy Bruschi and Ted Johnson - shut down the running lanes almost as soon as they developed. New England looks like they are playing at the top of their formidable abilities coming into this game.

The Steelers list backup RB Verron Haynes (knee, probable) - he missed practice on Wednesday. DE Richard Seymour is questionable due to his sprained knee (he missed last week's game due to this injury).

The Patriots' defense was overwhelmed the last time they faced the Steelers, but their offense was lacking their star RB and the defenders were on the field for over 40 minutes of game-time. Coming into this game, the Patriots have been stout vs. the run, while the Steelers are becoming a scary two-headed monster again now that Staley looks almost fully recovered from his bad hamstring. We expect a hard-fought, well-played contest on the part of both teams but with the surging Patriot defense, this will be a tough matchup for the Steelers.

New England's Corey Dillon/Kevin Faulk vs. The Pittsburgh Defense (Tough Matchup)

The first time these teams faced off, back in week 8, Corey Dillon was sidelined by injury and the Patriots attempted only 6 rushes during the game as they chased a huge Pittsburgh lead (21-3 at the close of the first quarter). The Patriots have Dillon back and he's running very strongly coming into this game - what happened week 8 is irrelevant regarding this matchup between the Patriots' rushing offense and the Steelers' rush defense, in our opinion.

Corey Dillon set career highs in rushing yards (1635) and rushing scores (12) during the regular season (15/103/1 receiving). Last week, he teamed up with Kevin Faulk to help the Patriots amass 39/210/1 rushing vs. the Colts (23/144/0 for Dillon; 11/56/0 for Faulk; 4/6/1 to Tom Brady and 1/4/0 for WR Deion Branch). The tandem of Patriots' backs looked very comfortable running the ball in the cold, snowy conditions last week, which is good news for New England, as conditions figure to be similar this week in the confines of Heinz Field. Dillon averaged over 100 yards rushing per game during the final 3 weeks of the season (69/326/2), and posted 100+ rushing yards in four of his last 6 regular season games. He's firing on all cylinders coming into the game, and Kevin Faulk looks ready to roll, too (he'd been limited by a sore knee to close the regular season - the bye week helped him get healthy, but he still was held out of practices in the week leading up to the divisional round, according to last week's final injury report).

The Jets enjoyed modest success rushing the ball vs. the Steelers last week, with 27/110/0 to their credit as a team (19/77/0 for Curtis Martin; 5/30/0 for LaMont Jordan). It was no surprise to see the Jets denied the end-zone by Pittsburgh - the Steelers only allowed 8 rushing scores over the 16 game regular season, and fielded the #1 rush defense in the NFL during that span, with an average of 81.2 rushing yards allowed per game. They surrendered an average of 94 yards and .8 TDs per contest over the final 4 weeks of the season, but those numbers were skewed by the final "exhibition-style" game when they played their backups for most of the Buffalo game - coming into the season finale, the "A" team averaged only 85 rushing yards and .4 TDs allowed per game from weeks 13-16. It's tough to find pay-dirt when Pittsburgh's defensive front is lurking just across the line of scrimmage.

This week, the Patriots don't list Faulk (he's good to go as of Wednesday), while FB Patrick Pass has a sore ankle (questionable). LB Kendrell Bell is listed as probable despite his sore groin (Bell hasn't played for months thanks to the nagging injury). Also listed by Pittsburgh: LB Clark Haggans (groin, probable).

This game features a battle between elite squads (an elite back faces off vs. a "stone-wall" defensive front) - it'll be a tough matchup for Dillon.