Mark Wimer/Joe Bryant - Passing Matchups

New England's Passing Attack vs. The Philadelphia Defense (Neutral Matchup)
Philadelphia's Passing Attack vs. The New England Defense (Neutral Matchup)

Tough Matchups

Philadelphia's Brian Westbrook/Dorsey Levens vs. The New England Defense (Tough Matchup)

New England's Corey Dillon vs. The Philadelphia Defense (Good Matchup)

Corey Dillon was a workhorse vs. the stout Steelers' defense, ending the game with 24/73/1 rushing and 1/5/0 receiving - a fine performance, in the face of the NFL's finest rush defense (averaging only 81.2 rushing yards per game during the regular season - New England amassed 31/128/2 rushing vs. Pittsburgh during their 41-27 victory). Dillon enjoyed a 23/144/0 outing vs. Indianapolis in the first round of the playoff - he's been a key cog in the New England offense all season, and you can bet he'll be a big part of the gameplan vs. The Eagles on Sunday. Kevin Faulk chipped in with 3/20/0 vs. Pittsburgh (after an 11/56/0 rushing and 1/11/0 receiving performance vs. Indianapolis) - he's an important change-of-pace player when he's healthy, as he appears to be since the beginning of the playoffs. With WR Deion Branch's help (2/37/1), the Patriots slapped down 31/128/2 vs. Pittsburgh - look for the Patriots to continue attacking with their usual aggressive ground game this week against Philadelphia.

Philadelphia's defensive front did a fine job against the Falcon's powerful trio of runners, limiting Atlanta to 27/114/1 as a group in the NFC championship game. Considering that the Falcons led the league in rushing yards during regular season, it was an impressive performance on the part of the Eagles. To open the playoffs, the Eagles contained the Viking's stable of backs, giving up only 16/72/0 to Michael Bennett/ Onterrio Smith/Mewelde Moore - Daunte Culpepper did score on the ground (5/25/1), and the Vikings ended up with 21/97/1 rushing (a 4.6 yards per carry average). In both of the previous playoff games, the Eagles' intensity has allowed them to elevate their performance above the mediocre standard we see in their regular season average of 118.9 yards per game allowed in this phase - 16th in the NFL - they allowed 13 rushing TDs in 16 games. The Eagles' defensive front is not in the same class as Pittsburgh's, however.

Philadelphia's starting WLB Mark Simoneau has missed both of the previous playoff games due to a strained ankle ligament suffered January 2nd vs. Cincinnati. He reportedly practiced full speed on Monday, and may be back in the starting lineup for the Super Bowl. Simoneau was listed as probable to play on Wednesday's injury report.

The forecast for Super Bowl Sunday looks great at mid week - a high of 68F and a low of 49F with a 0% chance of precipitation expected. Weather shouldn't be a factor during the game in those practically ideal conditions.

Corey Dillon has been playing at a high level all season long, and his playoff performances have yet to disappoint. Against the fair-to-middling Eagles, we feel that he has a good shot at a solid-to-excellent performance. Advantage, New England.

Philadelphia's Brian Westbrook/Dorsey Levens vs. The New England Defense (Tough Matchup)

Westbrook and Levens split touches at about the same ratio as they had during the regular season two weeks ago in the NFC championship (16/96/0 rushing for Westbrook, 6/18/1 for Levens) - Donovan McNabb carried the ball more than usual, with 10/32/0 to his credit - the Eagles ended up with 33/156/1 vs. The Falcons in this phase. Westbrook added 5/39/0 receiving, while Levens snagged 2/2/0. The Eagles run the ball well enough to demand respect from the opposing defense, and Westbrook is a dual-threat who catches the ball well. Westbrook generated 12/70/0 rushing during the first playoff game vs. Minnesota; Levens put up 10/36/0. Remember that the Eagles posted a 4.4 yards-per-carry average during regular season - well above the NFL average (tied for 8th in the NFL).

The Patriots didn't dominate the powerful Pittsburgh rushing attack in during the AFC championship (the Steelers put up 37/163/1 as a team, a 4.4 ypc average), but they did contain the team's running backs (17/64/1 for Jerome Bettis, a 3.8 ypc average; 10/26/0 for Duce Staley, a 2.6 ypc average) - QB Ben Roethlisberger added 5/45/0 and change-of-pace back Verron Haynes gained 5/28/0. The Patriots were 6th in the NFL in this phase of the game during regular season, allowing an average of 98.3 rushing yards and a total of only 9 rushing TDs, and they frustrated the Colts' Edgerrin James on the ground in their first playoff game (14/39/0 rushing). The Patriot's elite corps of LBs - OLBs Willie McGinest and Mike Vrabel, ILBs Tedy Bruschi and Ted Johnson - are as good as they come, and they hope to receive some contributions from DE Richard Seymour again in the upcoming Super Bowl, which can only enhance the defensive front's performance as a unit. The bottom line here is that the Patriots' defense has struck down the top passing attack in the NFL and one of the best rushing attacks in the NFL during the playoffs so far - as a unit, there just aren't obvious chinks in the Patriots' armor.

New England's DE Richard Seymour (not listed on Wednesday's injury report and cleared to play in the Super Bowl by the team's medical staff) is expected to play in the game on Sunday, despite his healing knee injury (reported to be a MCL problem) - he did limited, light work in practice on Monday due to slippery field conditions, but was able to practice full speed on Wednesday and showed no ill effects from his injury. Starting ILB Ted Johnson missed practice on Monday due to what coach Belichick called a "tight leg" - he is not listed on Wednesday's injury report - the Patriots have a clean bill of health, with no one on the list. Philadelphia's team is in good shape in this phase of the game, although T Jon Runyan continues to nurse a sore knee (probable).

The Eagles run the ball enough to keep the opposing defense honest, while the Patriots field an elite unit that contained the Steelers and stifled the Colts' Edgerrin James - in the neutral venue at AllTel Stadium, we give the nod to the reigning champs in this phase of the game. Advantage, New England.

New England's Passing Attack vs. The Philadelphia Defense (Neutral Matchup)

Tom Brady continues to live up to his reputation as a calm and collected player in the face of pressure - he hit 66.7% of his passes in each of the AFC playoff games this year (18/27 for 144 yards, 1 TD and 0 interceptions vs. Indianapolis; 14/21 for 207 yards, 2 TDs and 0 interceptions vs. Pittsburgh), and had a passer rating of 130.5 in the AFC championship game vs. The feared Steelers D. Deion Branch was huge during the playoff game vs. Pittsburgh, with 4/116/1 receiving (including a long TD reception of 60 yards) - he also rushed for a 23 yard TD vs. The Steelers (he had 2/37/1 on the day rushing). David Givens is also a key player in this phase, with 5/59/1 vs. Pittsburgh and 4/26/1 vs. Indianapolis (he's a primary redzone target for Brady coming into the Super Bowl, obviously). Corey Dillon (5/17/0 vs. Indianapolis) is the only other player on the roster to catch more than 1 pass from Brady during a 2005 playoff game - he spread the ball around to 10 different receivers vs. Indianapolis, and threw to 7 players vs. Pittsburgh.
The pattern so far during the playoffs has been that if short-to-intermediate routes are open, Givens gets thrown to, while if the long-ball is open then Branch's number is called. In either instance, Brady connects with his intended targets much more often than not.

Michael Vick was stymied by the Eagles in this phase of the game during the NFC championship game, managing a mere 11/24 for 136 yards, 0 TDs and 1 interception. The Eagles' elite DBs handled the Falcons' passing attack with ease. The Eagles sacked Vick 4 times in the NFC championship (Culpepper was sacked 3 times in the divisional round) adding a total of 7 sacks in the playoffs to their regular-season total of 47 sacks (2nd-most sacks in the NFL last season). Brady has been sacked 5 times during the playoffs (New England was 4th in the NFL with only 26 sacks given up during regular season) - he's been dumped more often than usual during the playoffs. The Eagles posted above-average statistics in this phase of the game during regular season, allowing 200.8 passing yards per game over 16 contests (12th in the NFL in that category), with a total of 16 passing scores given up in 16 games. They were right around that pace during the final 4 weeks of regular season, averaging 190.0 passing yards and 1.0 passing TDs given up per contest. Culpepper hit them for more yards than usual, but Vick managed less - so far, the Eagles have allowed 1 passing score and generated 3 interceptions during their 2 playoff games. The Eagle's secondary is very talented, and they are playing up to the top of their considerable abilities during the playoffs so far.

Both teams come into the game in good health, with no new injuries of note to report among their starting players.

Brady is a force at QB, especially during the playoffs, and comes into this game on a roll - the Eagles' elite DBs (3 of them Pro-Bowl bound - CB Lito Sheppard, SS Michael Lewis, FS Brian Dawkins), however, will fight Brady and company tooth-and-nail on Sunday. Neither squad has a decisive advantage in the neutral AllTel Stadium venue.

Philadelphia's Passing Attack vs. The New England Defense (Neutral Matchup)

Terrell Owens' comments on Tuesday about playing in the Super Bowl: "I will play on Sunday. ... I feel great…There are no limitations. ... If you don't believe in miracles, then wait until Sunday…I'm not really concerned about the medical risks…Even if I go out and re-injure myself, it can be fixed." Sounds like Owens is going to be in the game, doesn't it?

Regardless of Owens' appearance on Sunday, the Eagles' passing attack comes into the game playing well - McNabb had 17/26 for 180 yards, 2 TDs and 0 interceptions to his credit vs. The Falcons during the NFC championship, and hit 21/33 for 286 yards, 2 TDs and 0 interceptions vs. Minnesota. McNabb's combined performances amount to 38/59 for 466 yards, 4 TDs and 0 interceptions - a 64.4 completion percentage and an aggregate 111.3 passer rating (111.4 vs. Minnesota, 111.1 vs. Atlanta) - he's been playing superbly in the pressure-cooker atmosphere of the playoffs (without T.O. in the lineup). Freddie Mitchell (5/65/1 vs. Minnesota, 2/20/0 vs. Atlanta) and Greg Lewis (2/64/0 vs. Minnesota, 2/65/0 vs. Atlanta) have led the team in receiving yards in the first and second playoff games, respectively - Todd Pinkston had 3/46/0 in the first playoff game, but was quiet with 1/13/0 vs. Atlanta.

The Eagles' attack took a hit when TE Chad Lewis (who snagged 2/20/2 in the NFC Championship game) suffered a Lis Franc sprain and was lost for this Super Bowl - longtime veteran Jeff Thomason (out of football for 2 years, but with 2 Super Bowl appearances on his resume - '96 champion Green Bay and '97 runner-up Green Bay) was brought in by the Eagles to provide depth at TE. Thomason played for Andy Reid from 2000-2002 in Philadelphia, and therefore is familiar with the team's system. L. J. Smith, who has had trouble with a nagging back injury, will probably start for the Eagles and see the majority of passes thrown to the tight end position if his back doesn't act up. The other healthy TE on the roster is Mike Bartrum, but he's the team's long-snapper (they don't want Bartrum to be hurt) so Thomason will likely see the field if the Eagles employ 2 TE sets, or if Smith falters.

New England's defense frustrated Ben Roethlisberger in the AFC championship, picking him off for 2 devastating interceptions, including the back-breaker that Rodney Harrison returned for a 87 yard TD (killing a Steelers drive that might have put the score at 17-10 - instead, the Patriots led 24-3 at half-time). Roethlisberger eventually hit 14/23 for 226 yards and 2 TDs, but the game was out of reach (31-10 lead by New England) before he threw his first TD of the game. The Patriots crushed the NFL's best pass attack in their first playoff game, allowing only 3 points to Peyton Manning's Colts (27/42 for 238 yards, 0 TDs and 1 interception was Manning's tally at the end of the game) - they are playing ferociously in this phase of the game, no matter what name happens to be on the back of the DB's jerseys. Given the Patriots track record in the playoffs this season, one can only heap respect and admiration on their players and coaching staff. They have taken all comers and ground them into hamburger to date during the 2005 playoffs.

Both teams enjoy decent health on their respective units - New England reports no one on the Wednesday injury list, while Philadelphia lists Owens as questionable due to his ankle injury, and TE L.J. Smith is probable (back).

Given what the Patriots did to the Colts in their playoff contest, it would be foolish to underestimate Bill Belichick, Romeo Crennel, and the Patriots' defensive backs' ability to shut down any opponent - however, it won't do to underestimate Andy Reid, Brad Childress and Donovan McNabb, either. We see this as a neutral matchup between elite teams - neither enjoys a big edge over the other from where we sit.