Eyes of the Guru - Week 1
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Posted 9/8 by John Norton, Exclusive to Footballguys.com
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Its finally arrived! All the preparation is done, the drafts are in the books
and now its time to play the games. This doesn't mean all the work is done though.
Quite the contrary, the work has just begun. A successful draft is only about
half of the game. Championships are won or lost according to how you manage
your team from here on out and the first few weeks are probably the most important.
Be on the ball early and you'll be in the hunt late.
Defensive Line
Arizona
The Cardinals DL is still a work in progress but preseason game 3 may have given
the club a ray of hope that has been missing. Denny Green has desperately been
looking for anyone who can step up here and may have found a couple of guys
in Kyle Vanden Bosch and Bert Berry. Berry is set as a starter on one side but
the season ending injury to Fred Wakefield has left the other starting job wide
open. Vanden Bosch made a good showing with a big sack against Oakland in and
is in the thick of the race to win the open job. You might remember a couple
of years back when Vanden Bosch got off to a great start as a rookie before
a knee injury took him out. Last preseason he was just starting to get back
to form when he blew out the other knee. Bad luck or injury prone? This now
becomes the question. Vanden Bosch has a great motor and a lot of talent. If
he can stay healthy don't be surprised if he makes an impact this year. Dennis
Johnson didn't make the final cut so the only real competition for Vanden Bosch
is second year man Calvin Pace who hasn't been impressive at all this preseason.
The Cards were so disappointed early on with their ends that they experimented
with rookie tackle Darnell Dockett at the position but quickly decided that
wouldn't be the answer. Chances are none of the Arizona DE's were drafted in
your league but keep an eye on them as potential free agent additions.
Buffalo
The Bills were counting strongly on either Ryan Denny or Chris Kelsay stepping
up and making an impact at DE this season but so far both have been disappointing.
Denny started the first two preseason games and was virtually invisible while
Kelsay has started the last two and done even less. This is a problem the Bills
must resolve if they are to take the next step toward being one of the leagues
elite defenses but at the moment there is no hope in sight. This doesn't bode
well for Aaron Schobel as offenses will be free to design their blocking schemes
while concentrating on double teaming him. If they can't generate a rush with
their ends there will be a lot of blitzing linebackers in Buffalo this winter.
Green Bay
Its been no secret that the Packers have been searching for someone to help
provide a pass rush from the DE position. It looked for a short time like they
had decided to settle for free agent Kenny Holmes. Apparently once they got
him on the field they quickly found out that he wasn't their man. Not much was
said about Holmes but his stay with the Packers was very short. Upon releasing
Holmes the clubs next move was to acquire R-Kal Truluck from the Chiefs. Truluck
is a little light for an every down player at just 255 but is an excellent pass
rusher. He probably won't displace Aaron Kampman as the starter but will likely
replace him on passing downs. Truluck reminds me a lot of Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila
in his "younger days". Truluck may not put up a lot of tackles but
he could be a strong contributor in leagues that score heavily on sacks.
Indianapolis
Lack of talent on the defensive line may prove to be a big problem for Dwight
Freeney this season. The Colts did nothing to boost the starting talent and
in fact may have regressed a little naming former backup tackle Brad Scioli
the starter at end opposite Freeney. Unless they start using linebackers in
pass rush situations offenses are going to double and triple team Freeney all
season. He's a great player and will still manage decent fantasy production
but he may struggle to remain in the top 10 even if he remains healthy.
Jacksonville
It was no secret heading into training camp that the Jags were hurting at defensive
end, which makes the release of Hugh Douglas and Tony Brackens all the more
surprising. It was obvious to everyone that they weren't getting the job done
and I applaud Jack Del Rio for making the tough decision. The question now is
what the heck are they going to do for ends? Akinola Ayodele is at least part
of the plan. The Jags hope Ayodele can become the next Leonard Little; a decent
outside linebacker turned stud DE. Like Little when he first made the switch,
Ayodele is undersized for an end but the coaching staff really like his quickness
and rush skills. He will continue to work some at LB but with the emergence
of rookie Daryl Smith at WLB, the majority of Ayodele's playing time is likely
to come as a rush end. He will work on adding muscle and size like Little did
and could be a pleasant surprise in the long run. The official starting ends
will be Paul Spicer who the club has high hopes for and has shown a lot of improvement,
and converted tackle Rob Meier who will play only on running downs. Spicer has
never impressed me in the past but he certainly can't be any worse than Douglas
or Brackens and since he is expected to play full time, is worthy of keeping
an eye on.
Minnesota
Being the teams first round pick, Kenechi Udeze had gotten all the fanfare and
spotlight in Minnesota this summer but the team is quietly excited about the
potential of their 3rd round pick Darrion Scott as well. Scott is a little raw
but has all the physical tools to develop into an excellent every down end.
His learning curve will get a boost with Kenny Mixon's 4 game suspension to
open the season. Scott is going to see a lot of action and have plenty of opportunity
to impress over those 4 games. If Scott can show enough during his on the job
training, Mixon could come back for game 5 as a backup. The Vikings are a little
nervous about plugging another inexperienced guy into the lineup but then they
are already very young and need to get those guys the experience early as possible.
Scott and Udeze are the future starters for this club and the future may already
be here.
Philadelphia
When the Eagles picked Hugh Douglas up it may have served two purposes. Not
only did it solidify the DE position for them but it also may have served to
send a message to young Jerome McDougle. Heading into camp McDougle was the
projected starter opposite Jevon Kearse. Heading into the season he finds himself
buried on the depth chart behind starter Derrick Burgess and pass new "pass
rush specialist" Douglas. McDougle continues to experience a shoulder problem
that kept him out of practice for a couple of weeks and contributed greatly
to his fall from grace. Anyway you look at it he has a long fight back to the
top of the depth chart. My personal opinion is that Douglas may soon be the
starter. Burgess is very injury prone and truthfully hasn't been all that impressive
himself. Ultimately the team still wants McDougle in the lineup as they spent
a first round pick on him and consider him a very talented player. I suggest
you keep up on this situation as the season progresses.
Tennessee
The loss of Jevon Kearse prompted the Titans to use this years draft to reload
at the position. Travis LaBoy, Antwan Odom and Bo Schobel were taken in the
2nd, 2nd and 4th rounds respectively. The initial thought was that at least
one of these youngsters would play well enough to earn a starting job but the
team seems to be "Kearsed". Schobel was injured early in camp and
LaBoy (who had been looking fairly good) went down a couple of weeks later.
The result of all this is that Carlos Hall has locked up a full time starting
job and former pass rush specialist Jaqua Thomas has captured the position opposite
him. Thomas showed a lot of pass rush potential last season in limited action
but at only 250 is very light for an every down guy. It looks like Odom will
spell both starters for now. I really like LaBoy here for the long term as I
feel he is the best suited of the group to be an every down player. Unfortunately
it may be very late this year or even next before he is able to prove it.
Linebacker
Arizona
It looks like the linebacker question in Arizona are basically answered. McKinnon
seems to have fended of all challengers for the MLB job and will once again
be the safest fantasy option among Cardinals LB's but don't expect to see him
put up tackles in the 100 solo range like he has in the past. He should however,
improve on last years dismal production. At one point the coaching staff was
experimenting with different alignments and looking at some of their young guys
in the middle but injuries have shelved those possibilities for now. Rookie
Carlos Dansby got a start against the Chargers and promptly pulled a hammy which
sidelined him for a couple of weeks. He returned to practice on September 1st
but the missed time was a setback. Ray Thompson was set to start at the left
linebacker position but that may now be in jeopardy as the injury prone Thompson
has come up lame again. This time its a sprained knee that kept him out of the
Vikings game and then was aggravated against against Denver. Levar Fisher could
start the opener but look for Dansby to be in the lineup within a few weeks
if Thompson isn't ready.
Cincinnati
If your looking for help at LB see if MLB Nate Webster is available. His preseason
numbers haven't been particularly explosive but then he hasn't played more than
2 quarters in a game yet. His motor runs full speed on every snap and Webster
has quickly won over the coaching staff with his physical play. Meanwhile WLB
Brian Simmons is in danger of missing a game or two with a knee that he recently
had scoped. This leaves Webster in a position to really clean up for a couple
of weeks. Both of these guys are strong candidates for a good fantasy season
with Webster likely to be the more consistent tackler and Simmons the big play
guy. Simmons isn't expected to miss more than a game or two so if your sitting
on him hold tight, by about week 4 you will be glad you have him.
Carolina
The feel good story of SLB Mark Fields looks like it will continue. After he
missed all of last season to undergo cancer treatment the general feeling was
that his career might be over. Not so obviously! Fields has not only returned
to form but is running around as if he were 24 years old again. One of the fastest
linebackers in the game in his prime, Fields is again displaying impressive
speed and quickness getting to the ball and particularly to the passer. The
one issue here is that he's still playing strong side linebacker which by the
nature of the position will hold Fields tackle numbers in check and effect his
consistency. Two years ago Fields final overall ranking was pretty good due
to a lot of big plays but he only produced 75 solo tackle with 3 or fewer in
6 games. The moral of this story, Fields is a quality backup or a decent #3
starter in most scoring systems but don't overvalue him.
Chicago
All the speculation about how the Bears would shuffle their LB's to compensate
for the loss of Urlacher may have been a waste of time. He has returned to practice
and is getting stronger every day. At this point it looks like Urlacher will
be in the opening day lineup. Those of you who picked up Lance Briggs shouldn't
be in any hurry to cut him based on this turn of events. The big story early
in the preseason was about Chicago's return to the scheme/mentality that they
used a couple of years back when they were 13-3. You may remember that Urlacher
was a fantasy monster that season and WLB Warrick Holdman put up almost 100
solo tackles. One more important tidbit we need to store in memory, if Urlacher
goes down its not Briggs that everyone needs to go after, it Hunter Hillenmeyer.
Hillenmeyer not Briggs was working with the first team at MLB while Urlacher
was out and looked very good.
Cleveland
Injuries went a long way toward determining the starting linebackers for Cleveland's
opener this year. With Kevin Bentley, Chaun Thompson and Brant Boyer all fighting
injuries, the starting jobs have been handed to Warrick Holdman (WLB) and Ben
Taylor (SLB). Andra Davis is undoubtedly the top "dog" in Cleveland
but if Holdman can stay healthy he could also be very productive in a position
that produced well over 100 solo stops a season ago.
Dallas
It seems that for the time being Dexter Coakley has held off Bradie James for
the starting WLB job in Dallas. This competition will remain tight however,
so those of you sitting on James shouldn't be in a big hurry to dump him, especially
if your in a dynasty league. James is entering just his second season and there
is little doubt he will eventually take the job. He remains a better physical
fit for the position/scheme and is more the kind of player Parcells wants at
WLB. Unfortunately he has yet to shake all the mental mistakes that come with
being young. Coakley has little room for error as the two could end up sharing
time right from the start.
Detroit
Oh those ANNOYING Lions! With all the fantasy potential their linebacker positions
offer, they seem intent on ruining everyone for us. When they drafted Teddy
Lehman we all had thoughts like "finally there is going to be a Lions LB
worth drafting" and "they can't ruin Bailey and Lehman both by sticking
them at SLB". How wrong we can be sometimes... Injuries have the Lions
paper thin at LB with Bailey (knee) out indefinitely, James Davis (ankle) expected
to be out a few more weeks and Alex Lewis (ankle) likely to miss at least a
game or two. Lehman has at least temporarily been inserted into fantasy purgatory
at the SLB position. The good news here is that Bailey will eventually be back
and the Lions "intend" to make Lehman their MLB of the future. Unfortunately
he may get off to a very slow start for us this year. If this happens don't
over react and let him go or you will probably end up playing against him later
in the season.
Houston
Dom Capers may have quickly put out the fires ignited when the Texans started
Kailee Wong in place of Jay Foreman at ILB in the teams third preseason game
by saying "this is just a precautionary measure in case Foreman is injured".
Bull hockey I say! Wong was a pretty good pass rusher coming out of college
but spent his first few years in the league with the Vikings making the transition
to middle linebacker. He actually played very well there before the Texans acquired
him and decided to make him one of their OLBs in the 3-4 scheme. Wong's pass
rush skills seem to have been lost somewhere in all the transition and Houston
is now looking toward Jason Babin and Antwan Peek as their starting OLB tandem
of the future. I believe the Texans were simply looking at him to see if he
could play the position so they could part ways with either he or Foreman next
offseason when both will be looking for new contracts.
Indianapolis
If there is one thing that's been exposed this preseason in Indy it the teams
inability to stop the run. Their small speedy linebackers are getting pushed
around at the point of attack like freshman playing on the varsity team. Cato
June is high on the sleeper list of many owners and his huge box score production
in preseason week 3 suggests that he might turn out to be a steal. The problem
I see here is that about half his tackles are initiated 4 or more yards down
the field. Of course fantasy owners don't care how many yards he gives up before
bringing the guy down but you can bet the farm that the Colts coaching staff
does. June was competing with rookie Gilbert Gardner before Gardner suffered
a high ankle sprain that could keep him out several more weeks. June has until
Gardner comes back to improve or rest assured the bigger more physical Gardner
is going to get another look soon as he is able. David Thornton remains the
teams best linebacker hands down. He continues to make plays even though he's
relegated to the left OLB position. One thing that will help Thornton along
the way is that the Colts are playing left and right linebackers as opposed
to strong/weak. This allows Thornton to actually lineup on the weak side of
the formation about 25% of the time. In my opinion June could prove to be fools
gold in the long run while Thornton remains a decent fantasy option and Gardner
remains a dynasty sleeper that we should keep an eye on later in the season.
Jacksonville
Rookie Daryl Smith really turned heads in Jaguars camp this preseason So much
in fact that he has bumped Ayodele so far out of the starting job that Ayodele
is now working mostly at end. Smith has good size, speed and natural ability
which makes him a great fit for the scheme but its his intensity and nasty streak
that has won him the favor of the head coach. Dynasty owners are probably on
top of Smith already but its time for everyone else to start taking a look as
well. He isn't an every down player just yet but it probably won't be long before
that happens.
Kansas City
A lot of people picked up MLB Kawika Mitchell as a late rounder thinking that
the injury to Maslowski would make him the starter. Not so fast it seems. Mitchell
was being pushed throughout camp by 4th year man Monte Beisel until Mitchell's
ankle injury took him out of the running. Beisel saw some action last year and
put up good tackle numbers in a couple of games where he played a lot. He has
been named starter for the opener and will remain so until/unless Mitchell can
win back the job. This amounts to an audition under fire for Beisel. Considering
the history of Chiefs middle backers being productive, it could also be an opportunity
for us to pick up quality player. Mitchell could be out a few more games and
the better Biesel looks, the longer the injury might take to heal if you know
what I mean.
Pittsburgh
Kendrell Bell was supposed to see a much expanded role in this years defensive
scheme but as has been the case in years past he's fighting an injury that will
probably keep it from happening. The past two season Bell has been hampered
by ankle and leg injuries, This time its his shoulder and has the team concerned
that it could be another season long problem. This news obviously has Bell's
value plummeting but it also jacks up James Farrior's. Last year Farrior has
a very solid season as the every down backer in the Steelers scheme even though
the scheme was designed around Bell's position. It looks like he will again
be taking on the every down role and may even improve on last years solid numbers
as the team may soon begin playing to his strengths rather than Bell's.
Seattle
There have been a lot of adjustments made at the linebacker position in Seattle.
For the first time in 3 years Anthony Simmons will be playing in a more conventional
WLB role while Tracy White will take over at SLB. This news is music to the
ears of owners who have Simmons as it adds about 15 more tackles to his projections.
Last time Simmons played the position he put up 119 and 101 solo tackles in
consecutive seasons (2000/2001). The other guys to talk about here is rookie
MLB Niko Koutouvides who started the teams final two preseason contests and
appears to have won the starting job. There has been no official word on this
nor has he officially been named the opening day starter but Koutouvides clearly
outshined his competition during preseason action and could prove to be a fantasy
steal.
Tennessee
Don't be surprised when MLB Rocky Calmus puts up quality numbers this season.
Over the past two years he's been marginal at best in his production but things
have changed in Tennessee and Calmus will profit from it. The season ending
injury to Peter Sirmon is the biggest factor here. Prior to the injury Sirmon
and Keith Bulluck remained on the field when the Titans brought in an extra
defensive back. Rocky Boiman has taken over the starting SLB job but it is Calmus
who inherits the additional playing time. Instead of being a 2 down player,
Calmus is now on the field for everything short of the Dime package. While I
don't expect him to be a top 10 linebacker, he very well could emerge as an
85-90 tackle guy and a solid #3 starter.
Defensive Back
Arizona
Cardinals trainers are some of the busiest guys in the NFL this fall. Their
offensive woes are well documented but the injuries on defense have mounted
nearly as high. The secondary has had its share along the way. Top FS Dexter
Jackson is still fighting his ailing back and has been placed on IR. The organization
though it had solved the problem when they plucked Ifeanyi Ohalete off waivers
from Washington. Ohalete was sharing first team duties with Quentin Harris and
would likely have been the opening day starter were it not for the ankle injury
that now has him out of action. It looks like Harris will start the opener but
chances are he will only hold the job until Ohalete is recovered and has some
practices under his belt. At this point I would suggest tucking Ohalete away
on your roster for a couple of weeks and see how this plays out. This position
has a rich history of production and Ohalete is a solid player.
Buffalo
Keep a sharp eye on the broken arm suffered by Lawyer Milloy. According to Milloy
he will be ready for the opener but the Bills have a high quality backup in
Coy Wire sitting behind Milloy and they probably wouldn't miss a beat with him
in the lineup. I have to wonder if Milloy's insistence that he'll be ready is
partly due to "Wally Pip-itus". If Milloy can convince the coaching
staff that he is truly healthy he'll start. If he tries to come back to early
and re-injures the arm or if it doesn't heal quickly enough, Wire could be an
excellent pickup.
Chicago
The Bears play a lot of cover 2 in the secondary which puts their corners in
a run support role a lot more often that most club. This is why both Jerry Azumah
and Charles Tillman were pretty good fantasy options last year. That said, there
are a lot of changes to consider and those of you who are counting on Tillman
based on last years numbers may be in for a disappointment. First of all Tillman
is no longer a rookie, he's both more experienced and improved which means teams
aren't going to target him as they did last season. Second there is the fact
that rookie Nathan Vasher will quite possibly end up starting opposite Tillman.
Vasher has been impressive though he still makes some mistakes. He was battling
R.W. McQuarters for the job left open when Azumah (neck surgery) was injured.
Now that McQuarters (hamstring) is also down, the job seems to be Vasher's.
Look for Tillman's big production to belong to someone else this time around
as Vasher will now wear the jersey with the big orange bullseye. Year before
last Mike Green led all DBs in tackles from Chicago's SS position. This year
injuries and quality play by Bobby Gray have Green playing a variety of positions
depending on the situation. He is starting at SS but moving to the nickel back
position on passing downs. The important point here is that Green remains an
every down player and could prove to be a steal down the road for those who
have taken a late round shot on him.
Cincinnati
One guy that has been standing out in the Cincinnati secondary this preseason
is rookie Madieu Williams. Officially listed as the backup to Kim Herring at
FS, Williams has spent a great deal of time on the field with the first unit
during camp and preseason action. He's played FS and SS at times and has been
the teams nickel back since the first week of camp. Williams has out performed
Herring and its rumored that the coaching staff is considering ways to get him
on the field even more including the possibility of starting him at FS. If your
in a keeper league or one that has a taxi squad this guy might be worth tucking
away for a while.
Green Bay
Heading into training camp the Packers had moved Darren Sharper to strong safety
with plans on using Mark Roman at free. By the end of camp Sharper was back
at his normal position and the club was so happy with Roman at SS that they
traded his only competition for the job (Marques Anderson) to the Raiders. Roman
never posted useful fantasy numbers for the Bengals but then much if not most
of that can be blamed on a less than productive system. Packers strong safeties
have a long history of quality fantasy production dating back to the early days
of LeRoy Butler. Being from Cincy I can tell you this about Roman, he is a very
competent veteran player who doesn't make many mental mistakes but isn't the
most talented either. He plays hard but has never shown big play ability. With
Darren Sharper the "designated play maker" in the scheme, Roman is
the perfect fit for the position. I will be very surprised if Roman doesn't
produce tackle numbers that qualify him as a decent 3rd DB or a quality backup.
Oakland
Have a little room for improvement at DB? Raiders rookie Stuart Schweigert if
about to become a hot commodity. Oakland's linebackers are very thin and questionable
(especially until Napoleon Harris returns) which is why Derrick Gibson put up
7 solo tackles in 3 quarters of action against Arizona and also why Schweigert
went 11-2-0 against the Rams after Gibson was injured. The team was at the end
of their patience with Gibson heading into camp and drafted Schweigert to be
a potential replacement at some point. However Gibson had been playing well
and may have held onto the job for a season before the shoulder injury landed
him on IR and opened the door for the talented rookie. Schweigert has size,
speed athletic ability and looked extremely smooth for a rookie against the
Rams. I believe he is the real deal. Another twist on the story is the Raiders
trading a couple of 5th round picks to the Packers for Marques Anderson. Anderson
had lost the battle with Mark Roman and the Packers were rumored to be considering
his release. Schweigert is actually a more natural free safety and could land
there in for the long term, especially if Anderson is able to catch on at his
natural position of strong safety. The Raiders claim to have added Anderson
"for depth" but we shall see. Ray Buchanan is trying to make the move
from corner to FS and is currently the Raiders starter but he hasn't been particularly
strong.
San Diego
With the release of Kwamie Lassiter the Chargers FS job now belongs to Jerry
Wilson on a full time basis. Wilson posted very respectable tackle numbers when
he played last season and proved to be a dependable NFL safety. With the exception
of Donnie Edwards the Chargers are very questionable (if not just plain weak)
in the front 7 so the safeties should be very busy this fall. Wilson has limited
upside and probably isn't a good answer for dynasty owners but he should prove
to be a very solid #3 starter in most leagues this year.
San Francisco
A quick heads up here about SS Keith Lewis. The youngster has been standing
in for Tony Parrish (calf) for the past couple of weeks and has been impressing.
Parrish has returned to practice and is expected to start the opener but Lewis
has the coaching staff talking about how to get him on the field more. He is
an intimidating hitter and a very sure tackler. The staff believes once he gains
some experience he could become an major factor in their secondary.
That about does it for the week 1 addition. Best of luck to everyone as we
finally get this coaster ride rolling.
Just Win Baby!
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