Eyes of the Guru - Week 10
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Posted 11/11 by John Norton, Exclusive to Footballguys.com
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I want to start this weeks column by
apologizing for the bone head comment from last week about the Sean Taylor
suspension being a game day surprise. Apparently I was the only one in the world
who missed that piece of news on Friday and Saturday. Not to make excuses but I
had a personal emergency that kept me out of touch for a couple of days late in
the week. I thought I had backtracked and caught everything but obviously I
didn't. Adding insult to the embarrassment, I had started Taylor last week and
lost an important game by what amounted to 2 tackles while Adrian Wilson was on
my bench... It certainly doesn't look good for an "expert" to miss something
that big but we all make mistakes. Reality bites everyone once in a while.
San Francisco 49'ers
The Niners continue to struggle through injuries but should get a
little relief this week with the return of DE Andre Carter. He actually played
against the Seahawks but only saw about 15 snaps. It was basically his
opportunity to test his bad back. Carter came out of the game with no setbacks
and should see his role increase in week 10. He could even start and play full
time. All the injuries have pushed John Engelberger into an every down role. San
Francisco has a string of games down the stretch in which they face several of
the leagues worst pass blocking clubs including the Dolphins, Rams and Bills. If
your in a position to gamble a little take a shot on Carter. If he can come back
healthy he can be a factor for your playoff run. Coming in at this point with
fresh legs will be a big plus for him.
Houston Texans
I can't confirm this yet but I believe
I saw Kailee Wong lineup at ILB on a couple of plays against Denver on Sunday.
Remember back in the preseason Wong saw a little action on the inside with the
official coach speak being that they were simply preparing for all situations
and would likely move Wong inside if Foreman or Sharper were injured. What they
didn't point out at the time is that Foreman is a free agent after the season
and they may let him go, move Wong inside and promote Antwan Peek to the
starting OLB job... Earlier in the season Glenn Earl took over the starting SS
job from Eric Brown though it was never clearly stated if he had won the job or
if he was just filling in while Brown was injured. Earl soon went down himself
and both sat out for a while. Brown returned to action last week and started
while Earl was remained sidelined. Week 9 was the first time both were healthy
since very early in the season. Brown was listed as the official starter but
didn't show up in the stats while Earl seemed to be playing whenever I looked.
There is no report of Brown being injured and I know the coaching staff was very
high on Earl heading into the season. I can't confirm it but it sure looks like
there is a new starter at SS in Houston. Earl produced well in his earlier stint
and would probably be worth picking up, especially for dynasty owners.
Chicago Bears
When I put Alex Brown on the sleepers list last week I never
dreamed he would explode for 4 sacks against the Giants. The big game has made
him a very hot pickup this week but I suggest you don't over react here. Keep in
mind that Brown had just 1 sack through week 8 and he won't get to lineup
against the Giants again this season. In fact the rest of the schedule is going
to be tough for Bears pass rushers. They will face 5 teams that have allowed 16
or fewer sacks including the Colts and Packers who are tied for the league best
having allowed just 5 each. To Brown's credit he is also putting up excellent
tackle numbers for a DE averaging 5-1 over the past 4 weeks... The Bears got a
boost with the return of Adewale Ogunleye who started and played nearly full
time without any setbacks... The Bears safeties have quietly been having a very
strong run. Mike Green is currently in the top 15 among DB's with 42 tackles and
has chipped in 5 takeaways along the way as well. Meanwhile Todd Johnson is
coming on strong with 38 solo stops despite not starting until week 3. Only once
in his 6 starts has he failed to record at least 6 solo tackles.
Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers were happy to finally have
Kendrell Bell back on the field against the Eagles. He didn't start but did see
a lot of action particularly early in the game. He suffered no setbacks and
should see his role increase this week. Bell is a major fantasy threat when
healthy but has a tendency to heal slowly. I wouldn't get too excited about him
until we see him play full time and be effective. He looked rusty against Philly
and didn't seem to be flying around the field as he does when he's 100%.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tampa Bay spent a first round pick on Dewayne White last year but
until recently he had given them absolutely no return on their investment. That
may be changing at last. White has seen a slightly increased role recently and
has recorded a sack in each of the last two games. He is expected to have an
even bigger role this week as he will play some tackle in relief of Anthony
McFarland who is fighting a triceps injury. The Bucks are coming on and White is
finally contributing. Dynasty owners in particular should take note...
Apparently the talk in fantasy circles of Derrick Brook declining skills was a
little premature. His numbers had declined over the past 3 years when the Buck D
was at its peak but now that they are struggling a little Brooks is back at his
familiar place as the leagues tackle leader with 61 solo's. The only thing he
has yet to regain is his knack for making big plays. Through 8 games Brooks has
1 pick no recoveries and no sacks.
Carolina Panthers
As if things weren't bad enough for the Panthers right now they
continue to suffer injuries to their already understaffed defense. Backup safety
Travares Tillman was placed on IR this week which is only significant because
Mike Minter may miss week 10 with a knee injury. Chris Gamble played through
injury last week which is good because nickel corner Artrell Hawkins couldn't go
and probably won't go again this week. Kris Jenkins is already on IR and now his
backup Kendall Morehead is in danger of missing time with a shoulder injury. MLB
Dan Morgan is practicing with the team this week but isn't taking any contact
and remains questionable for week 10 with a concussion. There is a little good
news though, at least Mark Fields is finally back in action and should be able
to go full time this week. Vinney Ciurcui is likely to make a second start in
place of Morgan but the only guys left worthy of any fantasy consideration are
Will Witherspoon and Julius Peppers. Spooney usually steps up when Morgan is out
(7-2-0 with a pick in week 9), and Peppers is currently tied for the lead among
defensive linemen with 32 solo tackles. Strangely enough Mike Rucker is still
looking for his first sack of the season after several years of hitting double
digits.
Miami Dolphins
I didn't get to watch enough of this game to confirm exactly what
role Eddie Moore was playing but according to reports the Dolphins have moved
Morlon Greenwood to weak side in place of Seau with Moore coming in at strong.
Arizona opened in a 3 receiver set so the game book reflects Miami having their
nickel package on the field as starters. What we do learn from this is that for
what its worth Greenwood will now takeover Seau's nickel duties.
New York Giants
Obviously the big news out of Giants camp is the injury to
Michael Strahan which was magnified by loosing Keith Washington as well. Both
guys are done for the season leaving an already thin Giants line in even worse
shape. Osi Umenyiora was seeing significant playing time even before the
injuries and now becomes an every down player. DT Lance Legree is the projected
starter at the other end at least for now. The club activated Lorenzo Bromell
from the PUP list and hope to have him available in a week or two. Obviously
this is going tohave a huge impact on the rest of the unit as well. The offense
self destructed against Chicago and I have to wonder if this turn of events will
be enough to push the Giants over the edge. I expect Kevin Lewis and Gibril
Wilson to really step up the production the rest of the way... One bit of good
news for Giants fans, they should get Barrett Green back for week 10. Once he's
healthy he'll resume his starting role but may have to come off the bench this
week.
St. Louis Rams
Bryce Fisher was the official starter at DE against New
England on Sunday but from what I could tell while flipping back and forth
through the games Anthony Hargrove saw a significant amount of playing time and
seemed to be on the field a lot more that Fisher. It didn't translate into much
in the box score in week 9 but the coaching staff remains very high on Hargrove.
He should continue to see a lot of action and could capture the job if Fisher
doesn't start showing some consistency... When Trev Faulk was promoted to the
starting MLB job my initial reaction was that Mike Martz was trying to motivate
him (it worked for Polley) but after watching him play for a while I'm not sure
Robert Thomas is going to win his job back very easily. Faulk is a classic
overachiever who is doing a fine job as the Rams MLB and may hold onto the job
for a while. The only concern I have about his fantasy potential is that he
leaves the field when opponents bring on a third receiver which will limit his
opportunities against clubs who use a lot of 3 receiver sets.
New England Patriots
With the injury to Ty Law there was speculation that Eugene
Wilson would shift back to his original position at corner but the Pats nixed
that plan and went with Randall Gay at corner instead. Gay did a solid job
against the Rams so Wilson stays at FS and continues to quietly be very
productive... It doesn't have much fantasy impact but as a note, Keith Traylor
replaced Vince Wilfork as the starter at NT against St. Louis.
Indianapolis Colts
As if things weren't bad enough for the Colts struggling
defense, they just can't seem to keep any of their DB's healthy. Corner Nick
Harper returned from his shoulder injury Monday only to tweak the injury against
Minnesota. He is likely to be listed as questionable again this week. Even if he
plays he won't be 100% and the chances of his getting knocked out of the game
are high. Don't start him unless your desperate... There has been no official
word on the status of Mike Doss for week 10 but the initial word last week was
that his groin injury was fairly serious and he could miss a few weeks. I have
noticed that people have been slow to move on Bob Sanders in a few of my
leagues. Don't be; especially if your in a dynasty league. Groin injuries linger
so Doss could very well fight this the remainder of the season. Besides we have
already seen Sanders lead the club in tackles 2 weeks in a row. Dynasty owners
keep in mind that Sanders is expected to challenge Bashir for a starting job
next year. A battle he is very likely to win.
New York Jets
Many fantasy owners have been sitting on Sam Cowart and
wondering what the heck is going on. Two weeks in a row now he's been supposed
to play only to end up on the inactive list at the last moment. This can be
explained in 2 words, Jonathan Vilma. The rookie has been sensational and the
coaching staff has the luxury of allowing Cowart to sit until he is completely
healthy. He'll be listed as probable again in week 10 but we know by now not to
believe it until we see him on the field with a helmet on Sunday... The Jets
have to be loosing patience with injury prone FS Jon McGraw. The guy is a big
talent who makes things happen when he plays but seems to go from one injury to
another. After his huge outing in week 8 he was on the top of a lot of pickup
lists this week only to be sidelined by an abdominal injury. He is expected to
be listed as questionable for week 10 and likely will sit.
Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings got a bit of a scare Monday night when E.J.
Henderson was bent backwards and tweaked the same knee that he sprained earlier
in the season. Henderson was out for a series having the knee checked out but
returned to finish the game. Apparently it was no big deal but we need to keep
an eye on the situation later in the week just in case he gets sore after the
fact... Injury prone Raonall Smith missed yet another game. This time with a
concussion. This guy has a ton of ability but has missed more game with injury
than he has played in his short career. Dontarrious Thomas filled in at WLB
against the Colts but I don't know that I would count on him starting again this
week. Smith may be available and the club expects Chris Claiborne to make a go
of it as well. If everyone is available Smith will likely get the start but even
that's not a sure thing... DT Kevin Williams is quickly becoming an outstanding
fantasy option. Last year and even early this season Williams tackle numbers
were average at best but he really come on in that area. His 11 solo's over the
past 2 weeks raises hit total to 24 on the season which has him tied for 12th in
the league among DL and his 5 sacks it best among defensive tackles.
Philadelphia Eagles
There were some unexpected names that showed up big in the
Eagles week 9 box score. Maybe the most significant being Ike Reese who came in
with a solid 6-1-0. I didn't get to see much of this game but would have to
assume by the box score that Reese replaced the conspicuously
absent Nate Wayne at WLB in the game. Though the game book shows Wayne as the
starter he failed to make a tackle in the game. So far there is no report of an
injury which leads me to wonder if the coaching staff has demoted Wayne. They
weren't particularly pleased with his play last season and he's done little to
change their opinions so far this season. If indeed this is the case, Reese
might make a solid addition for depth in large leagues... Sam Rayburn came in
with a strong 2 sack performance but at least we know why on this one. Corey
Simon suffered a calf injury early in the game and Rayburn saw extensive action
in relief. Simon's status is unknown for week 10 at this point but Rayburn may
be out after being involved in an auto accident and requiring stitches in his
head... As anticipated Jeremiah Trotter saw a lot of action against Pittsburgh
but don't read too much into it. He's simply a bigger more physical guy than
Mark Simoneau and was a better match up against the Steelers big back attack.
Cleveland Browns
Chris Crocker was promoted to starting
FS heading into the teams bye week. While his first start didn't produce huge
numbers, its certainly noteworthy that he did lead the Browns in tackles with 6
on the day. He'll never be Rodney Harrison but for should continue to be
productive and would probably make a decent third starter... Ebenezer Ekuban has
officially beaten the wrap of first round bust. After being a complete flop with
the Cowboys he has quietly emerged as the Browns best defensive lineman. His 23
tackles tanks 18th among linemen and he has put up 5 sacks in the past 7 games.
He has yet to turn in that breakout game that will get him noticed and is
sliding under the radar in a couple of leagues I am in (whish I had room). You
might want to check your waiver wire and see if he's available.
Arizona Cardinals
No defense has been as hard to get a read on as the Cardinals
who seem to be putting their linebackers names in a hat and drawing for
positions. Once again James Darling followed an excellent week 8 outing by
pitching a goose egg in week 9. I learned my lesson with him early this year
when he followed good weeks 1 & 2 with a zero in week 3, then a 6-2-0 in week 4
followed by a zero in week 5. You simply can't count on him from week to week.
Maybe the strangest note from this week box score is the lack of production by
any LB. Granted it was the Dolphins but Miami managed to establish a running
game in this one with 27 carries for 146 by their backs. Yet somehow Arizona
LB's combined to go only 7-0-1. Even more strange, the starting trio went just
1-0-1 all by SLB Carlos Dansby. According to the game book Darling got the start
at WLB with Ray Thompson making his first ever start at MLB but it looks like
McKinnon saw most of the action in the middle with Gerald Hayes on the weak
side. The moral of this story is simple, stay away from Arizona linebackers.
Detroit Lions
The lack of playing time for DE Kalimba Edwards is a complete
mystery to me. The guy has talent but can't seem to put together enough
consistency to break the starting lineup. One tell tale fact is that tackle
Shaun Rogers actually played end on a few snaps against Washington on Sunday
while Edwards saw limited action. Speaking of Rogers, the big man has quietly
become a very good fantasy option. His 26 solo's is 9th best among defensive
linemen and his 4.5 sacks is second only to Kevin Williams among tackles...
Teddy Lehman owners are smarting from last weeks whopping 1-1-0 but don't
discouraged. this was simply a fluke caused by the offensive nature of the
Skins. Washington did run the ball 40 times but between the blocking scheme and
Clinton Portis's cut back running style, Lehman was either left on the wrong
side of the play or with a guard/fullback in his face all day. Dynasty owners
who are suffering through Lehman's mediocre production need to be patient.
Sooner or later Boss Bailey will be back and Lehman will loose the ball and
chain that is the SLB position.
Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals MLB position has been a revolving door this year
after the injury to Nate Webster. For the most part rookies Caleb Miller and
Landon Johnson have shared the duties but Kevin Hardy has seen some work at the
position as well. Miller is generally considered the more talented of the two
youngsters. He's a bigger hitter and is easily the most physical but has cost
himself some playing time by being too aggressive and making mental mistakes.
Against Dallas Miller was active and actually started the game (though the game
book relates otherwise) but aggravated the ankle injury that has hampered him
all year and was unable to continue. Those of you looking for that last bye week
fill in might want to consider Johnson this week as Miller will be listed as
questionable thus Johnson should play full time. This will be an interesting
situation to watch in the future. Will Webster recover fully by next season?
Will Miller grow into a more disciplined player or will Johnson hit the weight
room in the off season and become more physical? One thing is for sure, the
position has a lot of fantasy potential... Marvin Lewis is just full of
surprises this year, especially when it comes to the safety positions. Kim
Herring was inactive again in week 9 as he continues to fight nagging injuries
so everyone expected Madieu Williams to make another start. What no one expected
was that Rogers Beckett would return and replace Kevin Kaesviharn at SS. At this
point with all the switching and swapping its hard to call just who the starters
really are. Williams has certainly been impressive enough to deserve one of the
jobs but after he played behind Kaesviharn for a couple of weeks we sure can't
count on it. Beckett made it through the game healthy and Herring will be listed
as probable this week so at this point starting any of the Bengals safeties is a
game of Russian roulette... With Tony Williams on IR and Carl Powell out last
week Langston Moore got the call at tackle. The interesting point here is that
rookie DE Robert Geathers split time with him and posted his first career sack.
The coaching staff really likes Geathers and fully expect him to be a factor for
them in the near future.
New Orleans Saints
Orlando Ruff got another start at MLB in week 9 and had
another strong fantasy game with a 7-2-0 but don't count on his production run
continuing. Ruff is replacing an injured Courtney Watson who is expected to
return to practice this week and possibly play on Sunday. Ruff is a decent
backup but is not a threat to replace a healthy Watson on a permanent basis...
Has anyone else noticed that Darren Howard is healing a lot faster this year
than he has in the past? Wonder how much that has to do with Will Smith being on
the roster? Darren "don't call me Wally Pip" Howard wasn't listed as the starter
on Sunday but he seemed to get the majority of the action at the position.
Seattle Seahawks
The news of note on Seattle amounts to an injury
report. Grant Wistrom is likely to sit at least one more week with his sprained
knee. He hasn't practiced but is improving. The team hopes to have him back by
week 11 or 12. Meanwhile Antonio Cochran has done a solid job filling in. He
recorded 9 tackles a pair of sacks and a fumble recovery over the past 3 games
and might be worthy as a short term fill in... Ken Lucas spent Sunday night in a
San Francisco hospital with a severely bruised chest and isn't expected to play
in week 10. He'll be replaced by Bobby Taylor or Chris Richard. If Richard gets
the call expect him to be targeted often by opposing offenses as he comes in
will very little game experience.
Oakland Raiders
Hand it to the Raiders defensive
coaches for being very creative in their defensive schemes from week to week but
it would sure be nice if they would settle on something so we could get an idea
of what to expect from their players. After playing a 3-4 base D in week 8 they
opened week 9 in a 4-3 with Napoleon Harris at WLB. However they didn't stay in
a "normal" 4-3 very much bringing in DB Jarrod Cooper to play a similar role to
the one Marques Anderson has played a time or two which is basically what I call
an "Adam Archuleta". Cooper lined up as more like a linebacker than DB and his
speed created problems for the blocking scheme. Both Cooper and rookie DL Tommy
Kelly saw extensive playing time in the game and managed to make an impact with
each landing a sack. Don't expect either of these guys to start showing up in
the box score regularly though. Danny Clark was able to shake off his injury and
make the start but Tim Johnson spelled him often enough to lead the club with 6
tackles on the day. Clark should be close to 100% this week so we probably won't
see much of Johnson either.
Kansas City Chiefs
There were several interesting notes to
come out of the Chiefs week 9 game at Tampa Bay. The one with the most fantasy
impact is the knee injury suffered by Shawn Barber. He's been ruled out for week
10 and there is speculation he could end up on IR soon. This leaves an already
thin LB corps even weaker. Kawika Mitchell has played well in the middle
replacing Monte Beisel who is expected to return to practice this week. The
question for now is who will replace Barber? Quentin Caver is the listed backup
and would be my guess. There are some speculating that Beisel might move over
if/when he is healthy but to the best of my knowledge (without doing a bunch of
research) Beisel has never played outside as a pro. Its a situation to watch and
could produce a decent waiver pickup once it all pans out... FS Jerome Woods
suffered some sort of injury in the week 9 game though as of Tuesday evening no
one seems to know what it was. He was replaced by Shaunard Harts who would make
a nice pickup if he should inherit a full time role... Both Vonnie Holliday and
John Browning were healthy for Sunday's contest but strangely neither was in the
starting lineup. Not sure what is up here but rookie Jared Allen got the start.
Maybe we are seeing a changing of the guard here. Allen has been playing well
and has recorded 4 sacks in his last 5 games. Unfortunately he has yet to put up
more than 2 tackles in any game. He's a player to keep an eye on.
Washington Redskins
The Skins were excited to get Phillip Daniels back for the
game against the Lions but their excitement was very short lived. Daniels
suffered a setback to his injured groin. The re-injury isn't as serious as first
thought but Daniels is now expected to be out at least a couple more games...
The Skins off season addition of Cornelius Griffin is paying off big. He has
single handedly improved Washington's DL and has become a major fantasy option
in the process. Griffin is currently tied with Julius Peppers for the league
lead in tackles among defensive linemen with 32. He's also recovered a fumble
and tallied 4 sacks on the season which is third among defensive tackles.
Green Bay Packers
Darren Sharper spent the teams bye week treating his sore
knee and trying to make his way back to the field for week 10. He didn't
practice Monday and is considered day to day but the club is optimistic that he
will be able to go. Sharper has a history of playing through pain and producing
well even at less than 100%.
Until next week, Just Win Baby!
John
John
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