Eyes of the Guru - Week 11
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Posted 11/18 by John Norton, Exclusive to Footballguys.com
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San Francisco 49'ers
A bit of good news for the Niners though I don't know how much
fantasy impact it will have. DE Andre Carter was able to start and play the
whole game on Sunday. Carter has a lot of ability and could be a decent fantasy
option down the stretch. On the other hand with all the injuries and the stare
of the Niners in general at this point, he may not be much of a factor at all.
Its a situation to watch.
Jacksonville Jaguars
When Marcus Stroud left the field on Sunday after injuring his
knee, he was hobbling and leaning on one of the team doctors to get to the
sideline. The word out of Jacksonville is that the injury isn't nearly as bad as
it looked. In fact there wasn't even am MRI. He isn't expected to miss more than
one week and hasn't been ruled out for week 11 yet... Tommy Hendricks replaced
injured rookie Daryl Smith at SLB Sunday but didn't make much of an impact. The
club is holding out hope that Smith can return for week 11.
Atlanta Falcons
How much impact can one defensive tackle have on a team? The
Falcons put up 20 sacks as a team in their first 5 games with Rod Coleman in the
lineup. He missed 3 games with a knee injury during which Atlanta recorded just
1 sacks. Coleman returned in week 10 and recorded 2 sacks himself while his team
mates chipped in 4 more. Granted there is some coincidence involved here but the
fact of the matter is Rod Coleman is a key factor to the success of this team
and is without a doubt the top fantasy option among defensive tackles... Matt
Stewart is emerging as a serious fantasy option though his lack of consistency
remains a big issue at this point. As a matter of fact even the statistic
keepers can't seem to find any consistency when it comes to Stewart. The NFL
game stats show him with a 7-2-1 against the Bucks last Sunday while the
software programs that rely on Stats Inc. have Stewart at 9-0-2. No matter which
one you use the point is that Stewart has at least 7 solo stops in 3 of the last
4 games and his value is on the rise. The thing that makes me nervous about him
(other than he plays SLB) is the week 9 game in which he was credited with no
tackles and 1 pass defended. At least there is an explanation for this. Denver
got behind early in that game and went to the air early but no tackles at all?
All things considered I suggest Stewart be on your pickup list if your hurting
at LB... I can't confirm that Demorrio Williams has taken the starting MLB job
from Chris Draft but if it hasn't officially happened yet it certainly seems
like only a matter of time. All the kid does is make plays. Williams put up 9
solos against the Chiefs in week 8, 3 versus Denver week 9 and a solid 7-0-1
against Tampa Bay on Sunday. If I knew for certain he was going to start I would
say he's a must pickup but there is still a risk at this point.
Chicago Bears
The big news out of Chicago is the injury to Brian Urlacher. The
good news here is that it isn't the hamstring that has been giving him trouble
since training camp. The bad news is the calf injury required surgery and is
expected to keep him out four to six weeks or basically the remainder of the
fantasy season. Hunter Hillenmeyer returns to the MLB position where he did an
excellent job for a brief stint earlier in the year. Hillenmeyer should be very
productive the rest of the way and is a must pickup for anyone in need at the
position. Joe Odom will return to the lineup at SLB where Hillenmeyer had been
starting. This turn of events also adds a little value to Lance Briggs. Even
though Hillenmeyer played very well earlier, he is no Brian Urlacher and Briggs
should see a few more opportunities come his way.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Inside backer Kendrell Bell saw more action in week 10 as the
club tries to ease him back into the mix but he has yet to reclaim the starting
job. He looked good against Cleveland suffering no setbacks and should be named
starter this week or next. Bell's immediate value will be determined more by how
he is used than by how many snaps he is on the field. He's most productive when
turned loose to make plays and/or used in the blitz packages. I watched about 3
defensive series on Sunday and didn't see Bell blitz once. That may have been
more because of something the Browns were doing than due to a lack of confidence
in Bell. I'll get a better look at Bell this weekend as I'll be at Paul Brown
Stadium for this weeks game against Cincy... James Harrison got his first career
start at OLB when Joey Porter was ejected for a pre-game scuffle. Harrison did
an excellent job, recording a 6-0-1 mark and turning a few heads in the process.
This bring up the question will Harrison maybe push Clark Haggans for playing
time? Haggans posted 2 sacks in the opener but 1 in the last 9 games.
Carolina Panthers
If Will Witherspoon happens to be available in your league snap
him up. Dan Morgan left Sunday's game early with yet another concussion, his
second in 4 weeks. He has been ruled out for week 11 and is likely to miss
several more games. Vinny Circui will get the call at MLB again this week but
Witherspoon is likely to be the better fantasy option down the stretch.
Witherspoon has become the teams playmaker at LB of late as well as putting up
strong and consistent tackle numbers. Cuircui is also a consideration. He put up
a 9-3-0 mark in place of Morgan in week 8 and will get plenty of opportunity if
he plays full time. My concern here is that Brandon Short may also get a look.
Short went 6-0-0 against San Francisco where he played in a time share with Mark
Fields. Short was brought in over the off-season to add solid depth after last
seasons injury rash. He played MLB at Penn State and could get a look there in
Carolina if Morgan misses an extended period of time.
Buffalo Bills
It should have come as no surprise that Lawyer Milloy would have
a huge game against his old team. After that relationship ended as it did Milloy
will certainly be fired up every time he get to face the Pats. On the other hand
we shouldn't go off expecting him to suddenly be a 10-5-0 guy every week. Milloy
is and will be a steady contributor down the stretch. His value may be enhanced
somewhat by the complete ineptitude of the Bills offense which will put the D on
the field for more plays but we have seen Milloy's best game for the '04
season... One interesting rumor floating around Buffalo is that once healthy,
corner Troy Vincent will be moved to FS replacing Izell Reese. I doubt this
would have much fantasy impact but then you never know. One problem the Bills D
has had for years is a lack of big play production from its DB's maybe Vincent,
who has a reputation as a big play guy, can help to change that. Vincent could
be active for week 11 so we may see this play out over the next few weeks.
New York Giants
Just in case any of you are looking at the string of solid
games by Nick Greisen at WLB and thinking about picking him up or starting him
if you already have, Barrett Green will be the starter when he is able to return
from the ankle injury. At this point there is no speculation either way on how
soon that will happen but he has not been ruled out for week 11... Injuries to
both starting DE's forced the Giants to scramble a little. Fortunately they had
last years second round pick Osi Umenyiora waiting in the wings. Umenyiora had
already been seeing extensive action and was pushing for more playing time
anyway. Not only is he playing full time now but he posted his 4th sack in 5
games on Sunday. Put him at the top of your pick up list if your in need of DL
help. Former DT Lance Legree was moved to end to fill the other hole created by
the injuries and did an adequate job against Arizona recording his first sack of
the season. Don't look for continued production from Legree though. He's a solid
backup but doesn't come with a lot of upside potential.
St. Louis Rams
Aeneas Williams continues to fight through neck and shoulder
injuries which have forced him into a lesser role over the past couple of games.
Rich Coady got the start at FS against Seattle in week 10 and is likely to
continue that role for a while longer with Williams coming in as the nickel
back. Coady has been a very solid and fantasy productive guy when playing
regularly and should be considered if your in need of a short term option at DB.
Indianapolis Colts
Rob Morris was the listed starter against Houston Sunday but
Jim Nelson saw the vast majority of the action. This undoubtedly has a great
deal to do with the Colts jumping out to the big lead and the Texans being
forced to pass. The bottom line here is that the only Colts LB with any value at
this point is Cato June who has become the teams every down guy over the past
few weeks and has really come on in fantasy terms after a very slow start. The
team continues to move David Thornton to the bench in passing situations which
has all but ruined what value he had left after the move to strong side... Bob
Sanders has been nothing short of spectacular since taking over the starting SS
job three weeks ago. He's put up 24 solo tackles, recovered 2 fumbles and
returned one for a score in those three starts and is the top DB in most scoring
systems over the past 3 weeks. He's been so impressive that the coaching staff
has already named him the full time starter at the position even after Michael
Doss returns. Owners sitting on Doss in dynasty leagues shouldn't panic just yet
though, rumor has it that Doss will eventually move to FS and push Bashir out of
the lineup. A move that has been needed for a long time in my opinion... Raheem
Brock and Robert Mathis both had impressive box scores against the Texans.
Mathis has simply been on fire with 8 sacks on the season. The problem here is
going to be consistency. Mathis got the starting nod a couple of times recently
and proved that at about 240 pounds he's just not ready for every down action.
With Brock playing on running downs the production of both these guys is going
to depend largely on game situations and will vary from week to week. As for the
big production in week 10, don't over react to it. The Texans were without
starting OT Todd Wade so Mathis and Brock were beating up on an inexperienced
backup all day.
New York Jets
Sam Cowart was active for the second
week in a row but again saw very limited action against Baltimore. Its
understandable that they don't want to rush him back into action but he's made
only token appearances in the two games which leads to speculation that he may
never regain a significant role this season... Shaun Ellis was a late scratch in
week 10 but is expected to be in the lineup against the Browns on Sunday. The
Jets were very pleased with the play of Bryan Thomas who filled in for Ellis and
went 3-3-1.5. The former first round pick had been a bust to that point and may
have saved his job for the future with the improved play... FS Jon McGraw is
expected to be available for the week 11 game but its not yet been stated if he
will return to the starting lineup right away. The bottom line here is that
Reggie Tongue's 6-2-0 from last week is nothing to get excited about.
Minnesota Vikings
The revolving door continues to spin at LB in Minnesota. E.J.
Henderson is finally healthy so the MLB position at least is stable. Chris
Claiborne returned from his calf injury to make the start at WLB against Green
Bay. Why they keep insisting on this guy being their starter when healthy is
beyond me. He isn't very productive and spends more time in the trainers room
than on the field yet they still insist on playing him over talented rookie
Dontarrious Thomas. Since Claiborne made it through week 10 without reinjuring
himself it's safe to bet he will start again in week 11. Claiborne doesn't
provide nearly the fantasy potential that Thomas or even injured Raonall Smith
does. Avoid the situation for now but don't cut Thomas yet, Claiborne will go
down again soon, its almost as certain as the sunrise.
Philadelphia Eagles
Injuries have forced a shuffle at LB for the Eagles but
fortunately for them they are prepared (at least somewhat). WLB Nate Wayne
missed Monday night's game with a hamstring injury. Considering that the Eagles
haven't been particularly pleased with his production this season that could
almost be considered addition by subtraction. At least until Mark Simoneau
suffered a concussion. It had been speculated earlier in the season that
Simoneau might be moved to his more natural position of WLB with the bigger more
physical Jeremiah Trotter coming off the bench at to play MLB full time. The
Wayne injury basically forced the move. Stopping the run has been the weakness
of the Philly D all season and Trotter's presence will go a long way toward
strengthening it. His return to the starting lineup will also make Trotter a
solid fantasy pickup at least over the next few weeks and likely for the
remainder of the season. Wayne isn't expected to play in week 11 and may miss
several more games, especially if the D plays better in his absence. If Simoneau
doesn't go this weekend Ike Reese will likely get the call at WLB. Simoneau
isn't expected to be out more than one game at this point... The Eagles could be
without Corey Simon this week. He is day to day with a sore groin and may sit.
Sam Rayburn would get the call if Simon doesn't play. Even if Simon plays
Rayburn could be in the starting lineup. He has played very well in a reserve
role and has 5 sacks on the season to date. He is reportedly on the verge of
replacing Darwin Walker as the starter.
Cleveland Browns
Chris Crocker played another solid game
at FS on Sunday posting his second 6 solo box score in as many starts and added
a sack to boot in week 10. Crocker has made a strong impression and is clearly
an upgrade over Earl Little not to mention that Crocker is quickly emerging as a
fantasy option. He was the teams third round pick in '03 and is not going to be
a flash in the pan so dynasty owners might want to take note here in
particular... Robert Griffith rebounded from a slight slump to lead the club in
tackles against Pittsburgh and continues to be productive. Keep in mind though
that he is now 34 and the club drafted Sean Jones in April presumably to take
over the SS position. Jones was injured early in camp and is on IR but will be
good to go when the off season program gets rolling. Cleveland needs to get
younger in the secondary and it looks like they have/will... I have yet to
confirm this but judging from the box scores and the couple of series I was able
to watch on Sunday, it looks like there has been some shake up at LB. Warrick
Holdman lined up at SLB on a couple of plays that I saw with Chaun Thompson on
the weak side and Kevin Bentley on the bench. If this indeed is correct
Thompson's value shoots way up. I'll try to confirm this between now and next
weeks edition.
Arizona Cardinals
After years of searching for an answer to their lacking pass
rush and spending a multitude of early draft pick on the DL, the Cardinals have
finally found their man in free agent addition Bert Berry. Berry had quietly
been doing a solid job up until week 10 when his 4 sack performance against New
York thrust him into the spotlight. With 8 sacks on the season (7 in the last 5
games) Berry is on pace to be the first Cardinal to record double digit sacks
since Simeon Rice left the desert several years ago. The only question I have at
this point is where the hell is Peppi Zellner and why do they continue to play
him when he simply isn't producing? Zellner continues to start despite producing
just 4-2-0 over the past 6 games. Meanwhile former first round pick Calvin Pace
is withering on the vine behind him. Its hard to question a Cardinals team that
is playing their best defensive football in over a decade but Pace has seen very
little playing time over the last 4 games after producing 4 sacks in three games
leading up to the teams week 6 bye. One factor here is that SLB Karlos Dansby
has been sliding into a rush end role recently which has shoved Pace out of the
picture.
Detroit Lions
The Lions got a bit of a scare when Shaun Rogers suffered a
neck injury against Jacksonville on Sunday. Rogers missed some time but
eventually returned. The injury is being called a strain and Rogers is sore but
may be able to practice late int he week and play on Sunday. Rogers currently
sits with 31 solo tackles (13 over the past 3 weeks) and has become a very
dependable option in leagues that feature tackles... James Davis was able to
return to the starting lineup on Sunday and managed to make it through the game
without further injury. If Davis can stay healthy he could make a solid fantasy
option. Bailey isn't close to returning and Alex Lewis continues to fight
injuries as well. In fact all three of the Lions starters have increased value
based on the fact that 3 of the 7 LB's on the roster are injured. There won't be
a lot of situational substitutions at this point and there are some strong match
ups over the next few weeks. \
Cincinnati Bengals
Run defense has been a problem for the Bengals all season but
they managed to tighten it up allowing just 81 yards to Clinton Portis Sunday.
They will have a much bigger test this week against the Steelers who will likely
be riding the Bus for at least one more week. Bettis has been a Bengal killer in
the past and the Steelers running game hasn't missed a beat. Landon Johnson got
the start at MLB against Washington and topped the box score with an impressive
8-1-1. With Caleb Miller still hurting Johnson didn't have to share time and it
made a huge difference. Miller is still gimpy and probably won't play much if at
all this week. Johnson is a hot pickup at this point as he could very well hold
the position for the remainder of the season... I'm starting to loose confidence
in the official game books when it comes to their reporting of starting lineups.
According to the book Madieu Williams and Kim Herring were the starting safeties
with Kevin Kaesviharn starting at SLB. I don't know who recorded this but they
need glasses. Kaesviharn not only didn't start but didn't play at all in the
base defense. Williams started at FS with Rogers Beckett getting the call at SS.
Beckett was replaced by Herring early in the game and didn't play a lot but he
was the starter. Basically this all points to what I have been saying all along.
If you have Williams hold onto him. He is the best of the group and will
eventually emerge as an every week starter. Williams was the only one of the
four who played in every situation and virtually on every play. The rest of
these guys are simply not dependable from week to week and should be avoided
until/unless the situation settles... Rookie Robert Geathers made his first
career start at DT against Washington and looked good. He shared time with
Langston Moore and the pair did a very solid job. The future seems bright for
this young defense.
New Orleans Saints
Orlando Ruff made another good box score showing against the
Chiefs but then any decent MLB should have a good day against them, especially
with Blaylock and not Holmes in the backfield. The telling tale here however is
that the top 3 tacklers on the day were the two safeties and a corner. That
pretty much spells out the fact that the linebackers struggled. Courtney Watson
continues to fight a sore knee and was once again inactive. Rookie or not Watson
is missed. There is no recent word on Watson's recovery or how quickly he will
return to the lineup once he's able to play. It's week 11 so at this point he
probably won't be back in time to be a factor. Ruff and WLB Derrick Rodgers have
seen their fantasy value steadily climb in recent weeks. Both guys belong on
fantasy rosters at this point even if it's as a backup... Don't misread the
9-1-2 that Darren Howard and Will Smith combined for on Sunday compared to
Charles Grant's 2-0-0. There is nothing funny going on here. What happened is
that the Chiefs lost pro-bowl OT Willie Roaf early in the game. Howard and Smith
were able to take advantage of a backup player and they made the most of it.
With Smith pushing him Howard has suddenly become healthier and more productive
than ever. Funny how that happens.
Seattle Seahawks
Grant Wistrom returned to practice late last week.
Though he didn't play against the Rams he is expected to return to the starting
lineup this week and play full time. He's been out a while and will have been
cut in some leagues with tight rosters. Don't wait until he plays to try and
pick him up or you may find that you have a lot of competition for his services.
Kansas City Chiefs
We got our answer as to how the Chiefs would compensate for
the loss of Shawn Barber but by the time the game was over we were back to the
same question. Monty Beisel returned from the minor knee injury to start as WLB
on Sunday but suffered a calf injury that took him out again. Former Eagle
Quentin Caver replaced Beisel and finished the game with 5 tackles. The injury
isn't considered serious but it could keep him out for a week or two. At this
point the Chiefs are paper thin at LB. If Beisel can't go this week Caver will
make his first start of the year leaving rookie Keyaron Fox as the only healthy
backup. What will be interesting to see this week is who the club decides to go
with as the nickel LB besides Fujita. Don't be surprised is we see a little bit
of backup safety Shaunard Harts in that role. At this point Scott Fujita is the
teams best remaining LB and should step up as an excellent fantasy option the
rest of the way. Keep a close eye on Mitchell as well as this is an on the job
audition for him. One more note on Fujita, he moved to a rush end position in
some passing situations against the Saints and recorded at least one of his two
sacks from that position.
Washington Redskins
The Skins continue to reel despite the defense playing well
and the D continues to play well despite having several starters injured.
Neither Michael Barrow nor LaVar Arrington have played for weeks and its looking
like neither will be on the field anytime soon. The club thought Barrow might be
available last week but the optimism faded late in the week and he was once
again inactive. Arrington is still at least a couple of weeks away. The knee
sprain is behind him and he is now fighting through what is being called a bone
bruise... Cornelius Griffin has been the Skins best defensive lineman hands down
but was forced out of Sunday's game early with a hip flexor injury. He returned
after missing several series and isn't expected to miss much time if any. He is
however very sore and will probably miss a lot of practice time this week. He's
officially "day to day" as of Tuesday... Ryan Clark has made the most of his
opportunity and has likely won himself a permanent job at SS. He has led the
club in tackles since taking over the job. Dynasty owners may want to consider a
few things before over estimating Clark's long term value. At some point
Arrington will be back and the Skins front 7 will be improved over the
off-season, the offense won't stay this bad and Sean Taylor is an emerging star.
All these factors may take a bite out of Clarks future value. Speaking of
Taylor, I was very impressed with his play against Cincy. This kid has just one
gear and that's high. He was flying all over the field Sunday, throwing his body
around with blatant disregard. Just the way you like to see it when your a
defensive coordinator. If he's on your roster make him an every week starter the
rest of the way.
Green Bay Packers
Darren Sharper played sparingly in week 10 but got through
the game without worsening his sprained knee. He is set to play again in week 11
but it has yet to be determined if he will regain his starting job right away.
Chances are he will but starting him without official word would be risky...
Na'il Diggs suffered a bruised calf against the Vikings and was unable to
return. He is expected to miss some practice this week but should be able to
play on Sunday.
Until next week, Just Win Baby!
John
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