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Eyes of the Guru - Week 11

San Francisco 49'ers
A bit of good news for the Niners though I don't know how much fantasy impact it will have. DE Andre Carter was able to start and play the whole game on Sunday. Carter has a lot of ability and could be a decent fantasy option down the stretch. On the other hand with all the injuries and the stare of the Niners in general at this point, he may not be much of a factor at all. Its a situation to watch. 

Jacksonville Jaguars
When Marcus Stroud left the field on Sunday after injuring his knee, he was hobbling and leaning on one of the team doctors to get to the sideline. The word out of Jacksonville is that the injury isn't nearly as bad as it looked. In fact there wasn't even am MRI. He isn't expected to miss more than one week and hasn't been ruled out for week 11 yet... Tommy Hendricks replaced injured rookie Daryl Smith at SLB Sunday but didn't make much of an impact. The club is holding out hope that Smith can return for week 11.

Atlanta Falcons
How much impact can one defensive tackle have on a team? The Falcons put up 20 sacks as a team in their first 5 games with Rod Coleman in the lineup. He missed 3 games with a knee injury during which Atlanta recorded just 1 sacks. Coleman returned in week 10 and recorded 2 sacks himself while his team mates chipped in 4 more. Granted there is some coincidence involved here but the fact of the matter is Rod Coleman is a key factor to the success of this team and is without a doubt the top fantasy option among defensive tackles... Matt Stewart is emerging as a serious fantasy option though his lack of consistency remains a big issue at this point. As a matter of fact even the statistic keepers can't seem to find any consistency when it comes to Stewart. The NFL game stats show him with a 7-2-1 against the Bucks last Sunday while the software programs that rely on Stats Inc. have Stewart at 9-0-2. No matter which one you use the point is that Stewart has at least 7 solo stops in 3 of the last 4 games and his value is on the rise. The thing that makes me nervous about him (other than he plays SLB) is the week 9 game in which he was credited with no tackles and 1 pass defended. At least there is an explanation for this. Denver got behind early in that game and went to the air early but no tackles at all? All things considered I suggest Stewart be on your pickup list if your hurting at LB... I can't confirm that Demorrio Williams has taken the starting MLB job from Chris Draft but if it hasn't officially happened yet it certainly seems like only a matter of time. All the kid does is make plays. Williams put up 9 solos against the Chiefs in week 8, 3 versus Denver week 9 and a solid 7-0-1 against Tampa Bay on Sunday. If I knew for certain he was going to start I would say he's a must pickup but there is still a risk at this point.      

Chicago Bears
The big news out of Chicago is the injury to Brian Urlacher. The good news here is that it isn't the hamstring that has been giving him trouble since training camp. The bad news is the calf injury required surgery and is expected to keep him out four to six weeks or basically the remainder of the fantasy season. Hunter Hillenmeyer returns to the MLB position where he did an excellent job for a brief stint earlier in the year. Hillenmeyer should be very productive the rest of the way and is a must pickup for anyone in need at the position. Joe Odom will return to the lineup at SLB where Hillenmeyer had been starting. This turn of events also adds a little value to Lance Briggs. Even though Hillenmeyer played very well earlier, he is no Brian Urlacher and Briggs should see a few more opportunities come his way. 

Pittsburgh Steelers
Inside backer Kendrell Bell saw more action in week 10 as the club tries to ease him back into the mix but he has yet to reclaim the starting job. He looked good against Cleveland suffering no setbacks and should be named starter this week or next. Bell's immediate value will be determined more by how he is used than by how many snaps he is on the field. He's most productive when turned loose to make plays and/or used in the blitz packages. I watched about 3 defensive series on Sunday and didn't see Bell blitz once. That may have been more because of something the Browns were doing than due to a lack of confidence in Bell. I'll get a better look at Bell this weekend as I'll be at Paul Brown Stadium for this weeks game against Cincy... James Harrison got his first career start at OLB when Joey Porter was ejected for a pre-game scuffle. Harrison did an excellent job, recording a 6-0-1 mark and turning a few heads in the process. This bring up the question will Harrison maybe push Clark Haggans for playing time? Haggans posted 2 sacks in the opener but 1 in the last 9 games.   

Carolina Panthers
If Will Witherspoon happens to be available in your league snap him up. Dan Morgan left Sunday's game early with yet another concussion, his second in 4 weeks. He has been ruled out for week 11 and is likely to miss several more games. Vinny Circui will get the call at MLB again this week but Witherspoon is likely to be the better fantasy option down the stretch. Witherspoon has become the teams playmaker at LB of late as well as putting up strong and consistent tackle numbers. Cuircui is also a consideration. He put up a 9-3-0 mark in place of Morgan in week 8 and will get plenty of opportunity if he plays full time. My concern here is that Brandon Short may also get a look. Short went 6-0-0 against San Francisco where he played in a time share with Mark Fields. Short was brought in over the off-season to add solid depth after last seasons injury rash. He played MLB at Penn State and could get a look there in Carolina if Morgan misses an extended period of time.

Buffalo Bills
It should have come as no surprise that Lawyer Milloy would have a huge game against his old team. After that relationship ended as it did Milloy will certainly be fired up every time he get to face the Pats. On the other hand we shouldn't go off expecting him to suddenly be a 10-5-0 guy every week. Milloy is and will be a steady contributor down the stretch. His value may be enhanced somewhat by the complete ineptitude of the Bills offense which will put the D on the field for more plays but we have seen Milloy's best game for the '04 season... One interesting rumor floating around Buffalo is that once healthy, corner Troy Vincent will be moved to FS replacing Izell Reese. I doubt this would have much fantasy impact but then you never know. One problem the Bills D has had for years is a lack of big play production from its DB's maybe Vincent, who has a reputation as a big play guy, can help to change that. Vincent could be active for week 11 so we may see this play out over the next few weeks.   

New York Giants
Just in case any of you are looking at the string of solid games by Nick Greisen at WLB and thinking about picking him up or starting him if you already have, Barrett Green will be the starter when he is able to return from the ankle injury. At this point there is no speculation either way on how soon that will happen but he has not been ruled out for week 11... Injuries to both starting DE's forced the Giants to scramble a little. Fortunately they had last years second round pick Osi Umenyiora waiting in the wings. Umenyiora had already been seeing extensive action and was pushing for more playing time anyway. Not only is he playing full time now but he posted his 4th sack in 5 games on Sunday. Put him at the top of your pick up list if your in need of DL help. Former DT Lance Legree was moved to end to fill the other hole created by the injuries and did an adequate job against Arizona recording his first sack of the season. Don't look for continued production from Legree though. He's a solid backup but doesn't come with a lot of upside potential.    

St. Louis Rams
Aeneas Williams continues to fight through neck and shoulder injuries which have forced him into a lesser role over the past couple of games. Rich Coady got the start at FS against Seattle in week 10 and is likely to continue that role for a while longer with Williams coming in as the nickel back. Coady has been a very solid and fantasy productive guy when playing regularly and should be considered if your in need of a short term option at DB.

Indianapolis Colts
Rob Morris was the listed starter against Houston Sunday but Jim Nelson saw the vast majority of the action. This undoubtedly has a great deal to do with the Colts jumping out to the big lead and the Texans being forced to pass. The bottom line here is that the only Colts LB with any value at this point is Cato June who has become the teams every down guy over the past few weeks and has really come on in fantasy terms after a very slow start. The team continues to move David Thornton to the bench in passing situations which has all but ruined what value he had left after the move to strong side... Bob Sanders has been nothing short of spectacular since taking over the starting SS job three weeks ago. He's put up 24 solo tackles, recovered 2 fumbles and returned one for a score in those three starts and is the top DB in most scoring systems over the past 3 weeks. He's been so impressive that the coaching staff has already named him the full time starter at the position even after Michael Doss returns. Owners sitting on Doss in dynasty leagues shouldn't panic just yet though, rumor has it that Doss will eventually move to FS and push Bashir out of the lineup. A move that has been needed for a long time in my opinion... Raheem Brock and Robert Mathis both had impressive box scores against the Texans. Mathis has simply been on fire with 8 sacks on the season. The problem here is going to be consistency. Mathis got the starting nod a couple of times recently and proved that at about 240 pounds he's just not ready for every down action. With Brock playing on running downs the production of both these guys is going to depend largely on game situations and will vary from week to week. As for the big production in week 10, don't over react to it. The Texans were without starting OT Todd Wade so Mathis and Brock were beating up on an inexperienced backup all day.  

New York Jets
Sam Cowart was active for the second week in a row but again saw very limited action against Baltimore. Its understandable that they don't want to rush him back into action but he's made only token appearances in the two games which leads to speculation that he may never regain a significant role this season... Shaun Ellis was a late scratch in week 10 but is expected to be in the lineup against the Browns on Sunday. The Jets were very pleased with the play of Bryan Thomas who filled in for Ellis and went 3-3-1.5. The former first round pick had been a bust to that point and may have saved his job for the future with the improved play... FS Jon McGraw is expected to be available for the week 11 game but its not yet been stated if he will return to the starting lineup right away. The bottom line here is that Reggie Tongue's 6-2-0 from last week is nothing to get excited about.  

Minnesota Vikings
The revolving door continues to spin at LB in Minnesota. E.J. Henderson is finally healthy so the MLB position at least is stable. Chris Claiborne returned from his calf injury to make the start at WLB against Green Bay. Why they keep insisting on this guy being their starter when healthy is beyond me. He isn't very productive and spends more time in the trainers room than on the field yet they still insist on playing him over talented rookie Dontarrious Thomas. Since Claiborne made it through week 10 without reinjuring himself it's safe to bet he will start again in week 11. Claiborne doesn't provide nearly the fantasy potential that Thomas or even injured Raonall Smith does. Avoid the situation for now but don't cut Thomas yet, Claiborne will go down again soon, its almost as certain as the sunrise.     

Philadelphia Eagles
Injuries have forced a shuffle at LB for the Eagles but fortunately for them they are prepared (at least somewhat). WLB Nate Wayne missed Monday night's game with a hamstring injury. Considering that the Eagles haven't been particularly pleased with his production this season that could almost be considered addition by subtraction. At least until Mark Simoneau suffered a concussion. It had been speculated earlier in the season that Simoneau might be moved to his more natural position of WLB with the bigger more physical Jeremiah Trotter coming off the bench at to play MLB full time. The Wayne injury basically forced the move. Stopping the run has been the weakness of the Philly D all season and Trotter's presence will go a long way toward strengthening it. His return to the starting lineup will also make Trotter a solid fantasy pickup at least over the next few weeks and likely for the remainder of the season. Wayne isn't expected to play in week 11 and may miss several more games, especially if the D plays better in his absence. If Simoneau doesn't go this weekend Ike Reese will likely get the call at WLB. Simoneau isn't expected to be out more than one game at this point... The Eagles could be without Corey Simon this week. He is day to day with a sore groin and may sit. Sam Rayburn would get the call if Simon doesn't play. Even if Simon plays Rayburn could be in the starting lineup. He has played very well in a reserve role and has 5 sacks on the season to date. He is reportedly on the verge of replacing Darwin Walker as the starter.     

Cleveland Browns
Chris Crocker played another solid game at FS on Sunday posting his second 6 solo box score in as many starts and added a sack to boot in week 10. Crocker has made a strong impression and is clearly an upgrade over Earl Little not to mention that Crocker is quickly emerging as a fantasy option. He was the teams third round pick in '03 and is not going to be a flash in the pan so dynasty owners might want to take note here in particular... Robert Griffith rebounded from a slight slump to lead the club in tackles against Pittsburgh and continues to be productive. Keep in mind though that he is now 34 and the club drafted Sean Jones in April presumably to take over the SS position. Jones was injured early in camp and is on IR but will be good to go when the off season program gets rolling. Cleveland needs to get younger in the secondary and it looks like they have/will... I have yet to confirm this but judging from the box scores and the couple of series I was able to watch on Sunday, it looks like there has been some shake up at LB. Warrick Holdman lined up at SLB on a couple of plays that I saw with Chaun Thompson on the weak side and Kevin Bentley on the bench. If this indeed is correct Thompson's value shoots way up. I'll try to confirm this between now and next weeks edition.   

Arizona Cardinals
After years of searching for an answer to their lacking pass rush and spending a multitude of early draft pick on the DL, the Cardinals have finally found their man in free agent addition Bert Berry. Berry had quietly been doing a solid job up until week 10 when his 4 sack performance against New York thrust him into the spotlight. With 8 sacks on the season (7 in the last 5 games) Berry is on pace to be the first Cardinal to record double digit sacks since Simeon Rice left the desert several years ago. The only question I have at this point is where the hell is Peppi Zellner and why do they continue to play him when he simply isn't producing? Zellner continues to start despite producing just 4-2-0 over the past 6 games. Meanwhile former first round pick Calvin Pace is withering on the vine behind him. Its hard to question a Cardinals team that is playing their best defensive football in over a decade but Pace has seen very little playing time over the last 4 games after producing 4 sacks in three games leading up to the teams week 6 bye. One factor here is that SLB Karlos Dansby has been sliding into a rush end role recently which has shoved Pace out of the picture.           

Detroit Lions
The Lions got a bit of a scare when Shaun Rogers suffered a neck injury against Jacksonville on Sunday. Rogers missed some time but eventually returned. The injury is being called a strain and Rogers is sore but may be able to practice late int he week and play on Sunday. Rogers currently sits with 31 solo tackles (13 over the past 3 weeks) and has become a very dependable option in leagues that feature tackles... James Davis was able to return to the starting lineup on Sunday and managed to make it through the game without further injury. If Davis can stay healthy he could make a solid fantasy option. Bailey isn't close to returning and Alex Lewis continues to fight injuries as well. In fact all three of the Lions starters have increased value based on the fact that 3 of the 7 LB's on the roster are injured. There won't be a lot of situational substitutions at this point and there are some strong match ups over the next few weeks. \   

Cincinnati Bengals
Run defense has been a problem for the Bengals all season but they managed to tighten it up allowing just 81 yards to Clinton Portis Sunday. They will have a much bigger test this week against the Steelers who will likely be riding the Bus for at least one more week. Bettis has been a Bengal killer in the past and the Steelers running game hasn't missed a beat. Landon Johnson got the start at MLB against Washington and topped the box score with an impressive 8-1-1. With Caleb Miller still hurting Johnson didn't have to share time and it made a huge difference. Miller is still gimpy and probably won't play much if at all this week. Johnson is a hot pickup at this point as he could very well hold the position for the remainder of the season... I'm starting to loose confidence in the official game books when it comes to their reporting of starting lineups. According to the book Madieu Williams and Kim Herring were the starting safeties with Kevin Kaesviharn starting at SLB. I don't know who recorded this but they need glasses. Kaesviharn not only didn't start but didn't play at all in the base defense. Williams started at FS with Rogers Beckett getting the call at SS. Beckett was replaced by Herring early in the game and didn't play a lot but he was the starter. Basically this all points to what I have been saying all along. If you have Williams hold onto him. He is the best of the group and will eventually emerge as an every week starter. Williams was the only one of the four who played in every situation and virtually on every play. The rest of these guys are simply not dependable from week to week and should be avoided until/unless the situation settles... Rookie Robert Geathers made his first career start at DT against Washington and looked good. He shared time with Langston Moore and the pair did a very solid job. The future seems bright for this young defense.       

New Orleans Saints
Orlando Ruff made another good box score showing against the Chiefs but then any decent MLB should have a good day against them, especially with Blaylock and not Holmes in the backfield. The telling tale here however is that the top 3 tacklers on the day were the two safeties and a corner. That pretty much spells out the fact that the linebackers struggled. Courtney Watson continues to fight a sore knee and was once again inactive. Rookie or not Watson is missed. There is no recent word on Watson's recovery or how quickly he will return to the lineup once he's able to play. It's week 11 so at this point he probably won't be back in time to be a factor. Ruff and WLB Derrick Rodgers have seen their fantasy value steadily climb in recent weeks. Both guys belong on fantasy rosters at this point even if it's as a backup... Don't misread the 9-1-2 that Darren Howard and Will Smith combined for on Sunday compared to Charles Grant's 2-0-0. There is nothing funny going on here. What happened is that the Chiefs lost pro-bowl OT Willie Roaf early in the game. Howard and Smith were able to take advantage of a backup player and they made the most of it. With Smith pushing him Howard has suddenly become healthier and more productive than ever. Funny how that happens.  

Seattle Seahawks
Grant Wistrom returned to practice late last week. Though he didn't play against the Rams he is expected to return to the starting lineup this week and play full time. He's been out a while and will have been cut in some leagues with tight rosters. Don't wait until he plays to try and pick him up or you may find that you have a lot of competition for his services.  

Kansas City Chiefs
We got our answer as to how the Chiefs would compensate for the loss of Shawn Barber but by the time the game was over we were back to the same question. Monty Beisel returned from the minor knee injury to start as WLB on Sunday but suffered a calf injury that took him out again. Former Eagle Quentin Caver replaced Beisel and finished the game with 5 tackles. The injury isn't considered serious but it could keep him out for a week or two. At this point the Chiefs are paper thin at LB. If Beisel can't go this week Caver will make his first start of the year leaving rookie Keyaron Fox as the only healthy backup. What will be interesting to see this week is who the club decides to go with as the nickel LB besides Fujita. Don't be surprised is we see a little bit of backup safety Shaunard Harts in that role. At this point Scott Fujita is the teams best remaining LB and should step up as an excellent fantasy option the rest of the way. Keep a close eye on Mitchell as well as this is an on the job audition for him. One more note on Fujita, he moved to a rush end position in some passing situations against the Saints and recorded at least one of his two sacks from that position.  

Washington Redskins
The Skins continue to reel despite the defense playing well and the D continues to play well despite having several starters injured. Neither Michael Barrow nor LaVar Arrington have played for weeks and its looking like neither will be on the field anytime soon. The club thought Barrow might be available last week but the optimism faded late in the week and he was once again inactive. Arrington is still at least a couple of weeks away. The knee sprain is behind him and he is now fighting through what is being called a bone bruise... Cornelius Griffin has been the Skins best defensive lineman hands down but was forced out of Sunday's game early with a hip flexor injury. He returned after missing several series and isn't expected to miss much time if any. He is however very sore and will probably miss a lot of practice time this week. He's officially "day to day" as of Tuesday... Ryan Clark has made the most of his opportunity and has likely won himself a permanent job at SS. He has led the club in tackles since taking over the job. Dynasty owners may want to consider a few things before over estimating Clark's long term value. At some point Arrington will be back and the Skins front 7 will be improved over the off-season, the offense won't stay this bad and Sean Taylor is an emerging star. All these factors may take a bite out of Clarks future value. Speaking of Taylor, I was very impressed with his play against Cincy. This kid has just one gear and that's high. He was flying all over the field Sunday, throwing his body around with blatant disregard. Just the way you like to see it when your a defensive coordinator. If he's on your roster make him an every week starter the rest of the way.    

Green Bay Packers
Darren Sharper played sparingly in week 10 but got through the game without worsening his sprained knee. He is set to play again in week 11 but it has yet to be determined if he will regain his starting job right away. Chances are he will but starting him without official word would be risky... Na'il Diggs suffered a bruised calf against the Vikings and was unable to return. He is expected to miss some practice this week but should be able to play on Sunday.      

Until next week, Just Win Baby!

John

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