Eyes of the Guru - Week 12
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Posted 11/24 by John Norton, Exclusive to Footballguys.com
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San Francisco 49'ers
Dwaine Carpenter opened the season as a backup safety but
injuries and his own improvement have forced him into the starting role at
corner opposite rookie Shawntae Spencer. Carpenter replaced Jimmy Williams
Sunday and did a decent enough job that the coaching staff has decided to go
with him again in week 12. Carpenter led the team with an 8-0-1 mark Sunday and
should continue to be picked on as along as he's in the lineup. He could make a
good pickup, especially in leagues that start corners as a separate position.
Denver Broncos
After spending most of the season out with injury last years
second round pick LB Terry Pierce saw his first significant action of the season
in week 11. I didn't see much of this game so at this point I can't confirm what
role he played but he produced more tackles than DJ Williams in the game. His
playing time may have come in garbage time but the club has high expectations
for the guy so its worth keeping an eye on his progress.
Houston Texans
FS Marlon McCree exploded with an 11-1-0
game against the Packers on Sunday night but don't over react to the big
numbers. He replaced Marcus Coleman who was injured (shoulder) in the game and
will likely miss this week as well. McCree has never been a steady producer and
his big numbers should be considered a fluke... Jay Foreman was also injured in
the game and is in dander of missing the week 12 contest due to a neck strain.
If Foreman sits expect Kailee Wong to move inside with Antwan Peek entering the
lineup at OLB. This could be a preview of the future as there is speculation
that Wong could move inside next season is Foreman isn't resigned.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Bucks have been hesitant to place safety Jermaine Phillips on
IR but they wasted no time signing former Super Bowl starter Dexter Jackson to
replace him. Jackson fought through a back injury during preseason and was
released by the Cardinals a few weeks back. The Bucks brought him in last week
and signed him indicating that the back injury has healed and he is ready to go.
He didn't start against San Francisco last week but played a significant role
producing 4 solo stops in the game. Expect him to claim the starting job from
John Howell in short order, maybe as soon as this week... Resigning former
players seems to be the theme in Tampa Bay as they also added Chidi Ahonatu to
help soften the loss of Anthony McFarland. Ahonatu is officially listed at DT
but is seeing action at end as well. He went 3-1-1 Sunday but don't count on him
being much of a fantasy option. History warns us that Chidi is a fast starter
and a fast fader. He'll have a couple of good games then vanish from the box
scores.
Dallas Cowboys
In trying to compensate for their injury
riddled secondary (and also matching up with the Ravens O) Dallas went with a
4-4-3 alignment against Baltimore. This isn't the first time we have seen this
scheme from them this year as they have used it a couple of other times. The
fantasy impact of this news is minimal to everyone that doesn't have Roy
Williams but it certainly isn't good news for those owners who do. Basically
Dallas is replacing a DB with Bradie James in their base defense and moving
Williams back away from the line of scrimmage. The result is Williams being
taken out of his usual run support role often.
Tennessee Titans
Its been a tough season for the Titans defense with all the
injuries but they finally got some good news in week 11. Starting MLB Rocky
Calmus made his first start of the season against Jacksonville. His production
was average but he played the whole game and came out of the it healthy. I was
high on Calmus before the injury because he was set to take over the nickel
duties this year and play full time. If he returns to the same role he might be
a surprisingly good option down the stretch... Tennessee also got DE Carlos Hall
back last week after his long recovery. Hall made an immediate impact with 4
solo tackles but I'm not sure how much more he brings to the table in terms of
pass rush than Travis LaBoy. I expect we will continue to see a lot of their
young ends even if they manage to claw their way back into the wild card race.
Oakland Raiders
With the Raiders in a downward spiral its about time for the
coaching staff to start tinkering with the lineup in order to see what they have
in some of their younger players. This may have begun to show Sunday against the
Chargers with rookie safety Stuart Schweigert seeing his most extensive action
since early in September. Other surprises from week 11 include Tyler Brayton
moving back to OLB and and Sam Williams getting the start over an inactive
DeLawrence Grant at the other OLB spot. Neither move seemed to have much impact
as Brayton was once again shut out of the sack column (no sacks since week 2)
and Williams didn't even make a tackle.
Chicago Bears
Lance Briggs has gone off big time in the last two games. While
its obvious that he is going to be very productive with Urlacher out its also a
safe bet that he isn't going to keep up the torrid pace. All you have to do is
look at the schedule to see that. Chicago has the Cowboys, Vikings and Lions
over the course of the next 5 weeks, all of whom have proven to be less than
stellar match ups for linebackers. The other factor is Hunter Hillenmeyer who
may not be Brian Urlacher but is going to have some good games. If someone
offers you a big trade for Briggs while he's so hot, pull the trigger.
Pittsburgh Steelers
If there is anyone out there still holding out hope for Kendrell
Bell this year, don't bother. He limped off the field in the first half Sunday
never to return. The Steelers are downplaying the injury as not that bad but you
sure wouldn't think that if you had seen the guy try to walk. He's done for the
rest of our season at the least.
Carolina Panthers
I didn't get to see the Panthers/Cardinals game Sunday but I sure
would like to know where all the numbers came from. According to the game book
Brandon Short started over Mark Fields at SLB and Vinny Cuircui got the call in
the middle but the box scores sure suggest something different. Will Witherspoon
led the charge with a whopping 12-1-1 followed by Fields at 11-1-1 and Short at
7-2-0. Ciurciu posted just 1 tackle so if he did indeed start he wasn't in there
long. I am left to speculate that Short ended up playing most of the game at MLB
while Spooney and Fields handled the nickel duties. I have long thought the
whole reason for Carolina adding Short was to give them another option in the
middle behind injury prone Dan Morgan. Morgan is still questionable with yet
another concussion and it may be a while before we see him again. In fact at
some point they have to start considering all his concussion problems "career
threatening". I'll try to get a good look this weekend so I can confirm just
what is going on here but the week 11 box score sure raises an eyebrow... It
also looks like Mike Rucker might be loosing time to backup Al Wallace. Rucker
remains a complete mystery. No injury and no production after three straight
years of 40+ solo's and double digit sacks? There has to be more to the story
here than meets the eye.
Buffalo Bills
Lawyer Milloy has come up huge in over the past two weeks but
don't get too excited until you look at the rest of the schedule. He put up
16-5-3 against the quality offenses of the Rams and Patriots but there are none
of those type offenses left to play. This week Buffalo goes to Seattle who was
once considered a stellar offense but has struggled of late. Milloy should do
well here considering the Shaun Alexander factor but after week 12 Buffalo has
Miami, Cleveland, Cincy and San Francisco leading up to their week 17 match up
with the Steelers... One interesting note with little fantasy value, with Coy
Wire still gimpy undrafted rookie free agent Rashad Baker replaces an
ineffective Izell Reese as the starter at FS against the Rams. He shared time
with Pierson Prioleau.
New York Giants
Bad as it is getting for the Giants at this point at least
there is a little silver lining inside the cloud. Injuries forced them to turn
to Osi Umenyiora as a full time starter at DE and he has responded well with 5.5
sacks over the past 6 games. I mentioned him as a high priority pickup last week
and want to reiterate that statement, especially with the Redskins and Ravens on
the schedule in weeks 13-14... Kevin Lewis hasn't been much to write about for
the most part but the Giants are showing signs of another late season slide, the
kind that made fantasy hero's out of Michael Barrow and Dhani Jones last year.
Factor in the remaining schedule that includes the Skins, Ravens, Steelers and
Bengals in weeks 13-16 and Lewis might be worth a shot... Barrett Green is close
to returning from his ankle injury and is expected to reclaim his WLB job
soon... There has been no official update on the shoulder injury that kept
Gibril Wilson out last week but there is speculation that he will return to the
lineup this week. He didn't show up on the early week injury report which is a
real good sign.
St. Louis Rams
The linebacker carousel continues in St. Louis with the
benching of SLB Tommy Polley in favor of rookie Brandon Chillar. This following
the demotion of former 1st round pick Robert Thomas at MLB a few weeks back in
favor of Trev Faulk. There are 6 healthy linebackers on the Rams roster at the
moment and all 6 have started games over the course of this season with none of
them apparently impressing the Rams coaching staff. In fact WLB Pisa Tinoisamoa
is the only one who hasn't been benched for a reason other than injury.
Obviously this is a fantasy nightmare that should be avoided. Its also good news
for Adam Archuleta owners... It looks like the Rams may continue to go with Rich
Coady at FS the rest of the way with Aeneas Williams filling in at corner and
nickel back. Coady has been putting up decent if unspectacular numbers and is
worth consideration in large leagues.
Indianapolis Colts
Just when everyone was done scrambling to pick up Bob
Sanders, its time to go back after Mike Doss again. The injuries Indy has been
through in the secondary are staggering and seem unending. Maybe we should keep
both guys on the roster from now on and play which ever one is healthy like the
Colts are doing. Sanders is expected to be out 3-6 weeks which amounts to the
rest of the fantasy season.
New York Jets
For the second straight week Sam Cowart
was active and for the second straight week he saw very little action. Maybe the
most telling fact here is that even with Victor Hobson expected to be out this
week with an ankle, Cowart isn't going to be in the lineup. The Jets are
expected to go with some guy named Mark Brown instead. If the writing wasn't an
the wall for Cowart before it sure is now. I have said all along that when the
Jets drafted Vilma it was the end for Cowart. He makes way too much money to be
a backup and the Jets don't look like they are in any hurry to play the 3-4 as
their base defense so chances are Sam will be hanging his hat elsewhere in '05.
He's still a very good player so dynasty owners need to bite the bullet and hang
onto him... The other part of the LB saga is that all the guessing about Eric
Barton may finally be over. He will continue as the full time WLB and will
continue to be productive... The good news for Shaun Ellis owners is that he was
able to play pretty much the whole game last week. The bad news is that he
obviously wasn't 100%. Another week should help greatly but don't put him in
your lineup until he starts producing.
Minnesota Vikings
Chris Claiborne was able to go for the second straight game
without injury in week 11 which is great news..... if you have E.J. Henderson.
To be honest I just can't figure out why Claiborne is in the lineup, especially
ahead of a guy like Dontarrious Thomas. Claiborne just plain plays slow and
doesn't make many plays. Henderson owners get an extra 2-4 tackles a game as
long as Claiborne plays. Its also no coincidence that strong safety Corey
Chavous equaled his second highest output of the season against the Lions.
Philadelphia Eagles
Some of you may remember way back when the Eagles resigned
Jeremiah Trotter I speculated that Nate Wayne could be on his way out. While
there has still been no official word, reports out of Philly this week are that
Trotter is practicing with the first team at MLB while Mark Simoneau is working
at WLB with the first unit. Both Wayne and Simoneau were out last week but both
are expected to be active for week 12. If you haven't already moved on Trotter
the time has come. Trotter is a significant improvement to the run D which is
the one weakness the Philly D had shown.
Miami Dolphins
As if it weren't already ugly enough for the Dolphins they
lost their best defender Zach Thomas for the second half of Sundays game with a
hamstring injury. He didn't show up on the early week injury report but don't be
surprised if he is on the update on Friday. The team has been very quiet on the
injury so far so there is nothing but speculation at this point. The rest of the
story is that second year man Eddie Moore made a nice showing in the game with a
solid 7-2-0. I'm not sure what the Dolphins adjustment was but it sure put Moore
position to make a lot of plays. Moore was lost to injury during preseason last
year but the club has big expectations for him. He's a guy with big upside and
is a player to keep an eye on as he may make an impact next year.
Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals continue to struggle in the win/loss colums but
their defense is sure coming around. They are among the league leaders in
takeaways and have almost as many sacks now as they had in 16 games last season.
Justin Smith has become an every week fantasy start at this point and team mate
Duane Clemons is right on his heels. Clemons has posted 4.5 sacks over the past
4 games and is is making some big plays for the team. They don't really have a
pass rush specialist that's good enough to replace Clemons and when they
occasionally bring Kevin Hardy to rush end, Clemmons moves inside to rush from
the tackle position. In short he become an every down guy on a defense that
making a lot of big plays... Its finally official! Madieu Williams has overtaken
Kim Herring for the starting job at FS, and its not because of injury this time.
This kid has been stellar all season and now we don't have to hold our breath to
see if he's on the field. There is no official word but the eyeball test says
that Rogers Beckett has reclaimed the SS job from Kevin Kaesviharn as well. This
much I can say for sure, all 4 safeties were healthy and active Sunday, Williams
and Beckett were the starters... Here is a note to the NFL, give Brian Simmons
his sack! Simmons recorded a sack in Sunday's game and its like it never
happened. It wasn't given to anyone else, He wasn't credited with a tackle
instead, it just didn't happen. I hope someone catches this and makes a
correction before our playoffs start because somewhere out there its going to
make a difference to someone.
New Orleans Saints
Orlando Ruff continues to shine in the box scores and it
looks like he may hold onto the starting MLB job for the remainder of this
season. Ride him while he's hot but don't make the mistake of thinking he's a
long term answer. Courtney Watson will very likely have the job for next year
and if for some reason he doesn't its still a safe bet that someone besides Ruff
will... Rookie 7th round pick Colby Bockwoldt got the start at WLB for the
injured Derrick Rodgers and did a pretty solid job. He needs to improve his pass
coverage but was very good against the run. The 33 year old Rodgers isn't likely
to play again this week with the back injury and could end up missing a lot more
time. Bockwoldt will get a second start this week and a chance to show
improvement. The Saints are in need of improvement at many positions this off
season and WLB is one of them. The kid might just play his way into a possible
starting job for '05... Courtney Watson contributed on special teams in week 11
but saw little or no action at LB... It looks like the Saints have gone to a 3
man rotation at DE to get help get rookie Will Smith more involved. This isn't
necessarily a bad thing for either Charles Grant or Darren Howard as it will
allow all 3 guys to stay fresh and be more effective when on the field.
Seattle Seahawks
Injuries at LB has become an annual problem for the Seahawks.
They were in a similar situation last season but at least this time they are a
little better prepared. Isaiah Kacyvenski has emerged as the guy to have out of
this group with Anthony Simmons out and Chad Brown now expected to miss "a few
weeks". If you miss out on Kacyvenski or if your in a dynasty league take a long
look at Niko Koutouvides. Tracy White is also out a while longer so Seattle is
basically down to 4 healthy players at the position. The problem here is that 3
of them are MLB's which means someone is going to have to shift positions. I'm
not sure if that will be Koutouvides or Orlando Huff but either way it makes
both of them full time guys for at least the next couple of weeks... On another
note, what does Michael Boulware have to do to earn a starting job? The kid has
been nothing short of sensational! Memo to mike Holmgren, it doesn't matter if
they are rookies (Boulware & Koutouvides), put your best players on the field!
Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs D actually played a decent game against the
Patriots on Monday night. Maybe the injuries that have forced so many new faces
into the lineup are actually a blessing in disguise. Kawika Mitchell had his
career best fantasy production with 8 solo stops and is emerging as a solid
player for the Chiefs. The position is heavy with fantasy potential so
Mitchell's stock is certainly on the rise. It's looking like he will be the man
in the middle for the remainder of the season and should be a consideration for
owners looking to sure up the position. Dynasty owners should be even more
aggressive in going after him... Another guy we all need to start taking notice
of is DE Jared Allen. He has started ahead of a healthy Vonnie Holliday for the
past couple of weeks and is emerging as an every down player. Allen has 5 sacks
on the season and his 4 solo stops against the Pats was a season high... Jerome
Woods left Monday's game with a knee injury. His status for week 12 is uncertain
at best which could open the door for Shaunard Harts. Harts made a huge fantasy
impact year before last when he took turns replacing Woods and Greg Wesley who
each missed time with injuries. Harts was a top 10 DB that season and if he ends
up starting would make a good pickup for the stretch run. Stay on top of this
situation.
Washington Redskins
While the overall situation in Washington isn't good to say
the least the organization has discovered some diamonds in the rough this season
on defense. Both SS Ryan Clark and MLB Antonio Pierce have been nothing short of
impressive in their short starting careers and give the Skins some unexpected
strength to build around for the future. These two youngsters combined with Sean
Taylor are going to make the middle of the Skins defense a no mans land for
opposing offenses for years to come. Best of all their emergence will allow
Washington to concentrate on their very needs DE position this off season.
Green Bay Packers
After getting off to a very slow start Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila
has caught fire with 5 sacks over the past 3 games. His tackle numbers have
improved as well with 3 solo stops in each of those 3 games. His lack of
production early on has him wasting on the waiver wire in a lot of leagues. He
would be a good pickup for anyone in need, especially considering the schedule
which has the Rams, Lions, Vikings and Bears among the final 6 opponents. All
these clubs should be considered favorable match ups... Darren Sharper saw a
little more action in week 11 than in the previous week. There was no setback to
his recovery and he could step back into his regular role as starting FS as
early as this week against the Rams.
Until next week, Just Win Baby!
John
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