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Eyes of the Guru - Week 13

For most of us this is the last week of the regular season and for the many who are on the playoff bubble this amounts to round 1. I just want to wish everyone the best of luck this week and hope you are able to push deep into your playoffs. I know it will be an edge of the seat weekend for me as I am still very much alive in 8 of my 9 leagues but need some things to go my way this week in 2 of them. May the funny shaped ball bounce your way in week 13.  

Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Second year DE Dwayne White continues to see an increasing workload and continues to shine. He now has at least half a sack in each of the past 5 games and is pushing for even more time. The Bucks haven't been disappointed with starter Greg Spires but lets face it, he isn't the most talented guy. White is progressing well and is likely to take over the starting job by or before next season. Dynasty owners be on the alert here... After seeing significant action in week 11, recently signed Dexter Jackson played a very limited role against the Panthers on Sunday. Hard to say at this point what happened there or what week 13 will bring. 

New York Giants
Don't expect Barrett Green to be a Giant in '05. He's had all sorts of problems this season ranging from injuries to benching then being inactive for disciplinary reason and now being ejected. Simply put he's not that good of a player and he certainly isn't a Tom Coughlin kind of guy... DT Norman Hand may sit this week with a groin injury. He would be replaced by last years 1st round pick William Joseph who was benched by Coughlin and would love to get another shot at the starting job... The club hopes to have Gibril Wilson back in action for week 13 but he has yet to practice with full contact on his sore shoulder and will likely be questionable again.  

St. Louis Rams
The Rams made due with transplanted SS Rich Coady at FS for a few weeks but decided to to pick up Antuan Edwards who was cut by Miami right after the new coach took over. Edwards being a natural FS was not only a good fit but was in game shape. He didn't officially start against the Packers but saw a great deal of action and could replace Coady as the official starter in the very near future. at the very least he will continue to see extensive action as Aeneas Williams is struggling with nagging injuries... Someone needs to tell Mike Martz that continually benching one starter after another isn't going to resolve the Rams problems on defense. Last week I talked about the LB carousel and now it seems to have spread to include the DL. Damione Lewis was yanked from the lineup Monday night which was a surprise move in itself but the even bigger head scratcher is that he was replaced by undrafted rookie free agent Bobby Howard instead of '03 first rounder Jimmy Kennedy. This situation doesn't hold much fantasy value but is another one of those eyebrow raisers that make you wonder just how good the Rams could be if they had a coach with a little common sense?    

Miami Dolphins
Zach Thomas started and made it through 2 series on Sunday before being forced from the game when his hamstring tightened up. He didn't worsen the injury and is expected to make another go of it this week. Thomas is a two edged sword though. He has a great match up against a Bills club that has rediscovered offense behind McGahee but how long will he play? Derrick Pope got the call to replace Thomas against the Niners with Morlon Greenwood remaining at WLB. There was speculation that Eddie Moore might play inside in the absence of Thomas but that has been put to rest.  

Washington Redskins
One of the many rumor flying around Washington is that Lavar Arrington may end up on IR within the next couple of weeks. The season is lost for the Skins and Arrington is still thought to be at least a couple of weeks away from playing. He hasn't even returned to practice yet. He has however been lobbying to do so. If he doesn't practice by the end of next week he's probably done... Against the Steelers SS Ryan Clark turned in his lowest tackle totals since taking over the starting job back in week 5. Don't panic, he's not hurt or anything like that, it was just one of those things that happen. What you might want to look at though is the Skins remaining schedule which isn't all that good where Clark is concerned. Washington has games left with the Giants, Eagles, Niners and Cowboys over the next 4 weeks. None of which provide what could be considered a good match up for a strong safety.   

Houston Texans
Jamie Sharper missed some time with a shoulder injury on Sunday which helps explain his low production. He will be limited in practice and there is a chance he could miss week 13. Though he is expected to play at this point Sharper may be less than 100%. Its a catch 22 here. A match up with the Jets is hard to beat but how effective will he be with a sore shoulder? If you have a real good backup you may want to consider sitting Sharper but I tell you right now I will be playing him if he is active... Jay Foreman missed last weeks game with a sore neck and will also be limited this week. He will practice late in the week but could sit again. Instead of shifting Kailee Wong inside as speculated, it was Dashon Polk getting the call to replace Foreman against Tennessee. If both Sharper and Foreman sit this weekend Wong might be forced inside even if the coaches don't like it... FS Marcus Coleman was able to play through his sore shoulder and still be productive. He will take it easy in practice again this week and should be good to go.   

Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jags are on the verge of fading from the playoff hunt and face a daunting task in the Steelers this week. This match up comes at a particularly bad time for Jacksonville with Marcus Stroud still gimpy from a sore knee. He didn't look good at all against the Vikings and was obviously bothered by the injury. Stroud and John Henderson are the anchors of the unit and will need to play well if Jacksonville is to have any shot at slowing down the Steelers power running game. Henderson is coming off his best fantasy output of the season (5-2-2) and should have another good game with this match up. He should get strong consideration as a starter this week but I would be nervous about playing Stroud the way he looked against Minnesota... Rob Meier looks to be heading to IR with a knee injury of his own so Jason Gildon will be seeing a lot more playing time the rest of the way. You know he will be very fired up to face his former team this week and he would probably make an excellent sleeper play. The Steelers may be rolling along but Big Ben has taken his share of abuse from the pass rush having been sacked 11 times in the past two weeks... Mike Peterson has been in a mini slump for the past couple of weeks but don't even think about sitting him against the Steelers. MLB's Landon Johnson and Antonio Pierce aren't exactly household names but they have gone 7-6-1.5 and 9-0-0 against Pittsburgh in the past couple of weeks.     

Philadelphia Eagles
The Philly D is looking pretty good at this point with Jeremiah Trotter stepping into the MLB role and Simoneau moving to WLB. It looks like Nate Wayne will be available this week so now comes the moment of truth. Do they go back to the way it was before with Trotter and Simoneau sharing the middle? I think not, but then stranger things have happened. The bottom line here is that there is a little risk in starting Trotter this week unless we get some confirmation on the issue... It looks like the strong run by Brian Dawkins is over and he's back to his usual inconsistent self. It was 4 games ago when he last recorded more than 3 solo tackles and after this week the match ups aren't very good the rest of the way. If you have been counting on Dawkins as a starter for the playoff run you should start looking hard for other options. Its probably more than just a coincidence that Dawkins fall off coincides with Trotter taking over at MLB full time... The Eagles may be short handed at DE this week against the Packers and both Jerome McDougle and Derrick Burgess are likely to miss the game with injuries. This would make Jevon Kearse and Hugh Douglas virtually every down guys. Kearse has been an "every down guy" all along and is making some impact in the pass rush but his tackle numbers have been nothing short of dismal (5 solo's over the past 4 games).    

Tennessee Titans
FS Lamont Thompson has cooled off a lot since the bye week with just 11 solo stops in the past 3 games but don't give up on him just yet. The schedule over the next 4 weeks is simply brutal and provides 3 stellar match ups for Thompson in the Colts, Chiefs and Broncos... Rocky Calmus made it through another game healthy but the Titans LB corps took another hit with an injury to Rocky Boiman who may be unable to go this week with a calf injury. Calmus is a long shot for sure but with the remaining schedule he is likely to be productive.
     

Cincinnati Bengals
Wouldn't you know as soon as the Bengals had settled on starters at the safety positions Rogers Beckett gets hurt again. At least there is some good news this time in that he didn't suffer a concussion. Beckett suffered a neck strain about half way through Sunday's slug out
with Cleveland and didn't return. His status for this week's game at Baltimore is not yet known. Its a great match up even without Jamal Lewis so if we learn early enough that Beckett won't play don't be afraid to play Kevin Kaesviharn... Madieu Williams has solidified himself as the starter at FS ahead of Kim Herring and has to be a consideration for defensive rookie of the year. We can finally put him in our starting lineup without having to pray that he plays full time .. The Bengals have endured several injuries along the DL but have found a silver lining in the cloud. Rookie Robert Geathers has played very well and adds a pass rush dimension from the inside position that has been missing from this club for years. He has 3.5 sacks over the past 4 games and has captured the starting job from Langston Moore. Only time will tell if he will garner any fantasy attention but there is potential here.  

Carolina Panthers
Mark Fields was active and played against the Bucks on Sunday but he was a scratch from the starting lineup in favor of Brandon Short. Fields is battling a thigh bruise which undoubtedly contributed to his limited playing time but Short has also played very well and is likely the future starter for the team. Fields is nearing the end of his contract, not to mention he's 32 and has missed a lot of action with minor injuries... Dan Morgan is unlikely to return to action this week and is scheduled for further evaluation. He has now suffered several concussions over the past two seasons and one has to start wondering if/when he will call it quits while he still knows his own name. 

Chicago Bears
Word out of Chicago is that Brian Urlacher is still at least a couple of weeks away from returning which all but insures us that Hunter Hillenmeyer will be at MLB for the rest of our season. The Bears got yet another scare Thursday when Lance Briggs had to be helped off the field. He was able to return on the next series so the injury wasn't serious... More good news for the Bears in that Charles Tillman may be able to resume his starting role at corner as early as this week. Tillman was active and saw some action against Dallas. He is one of the leagues top tacklers from the corner position and might make a nice pickup for the playoff drive if he returns to form.

Cleveland Browns
Adding to the insult of giving up 58 points to their in state rival on Sunday the Browns also lost a couple of starters on defense. DT Orpheus Roye left on a cart before halftime with an apparent leg injury and did not return. Shortly after half time starting MLB Andra Davis went down with a knee injury and had to be carried off the field. There is no news on Roye yet but the news on Davis is all bad. He's gone for the season and headed for IR. Barry Gardner will step in as starter at least until he proves how bad he is and the new coach yanks him. Gardner is an average at best player who just doesn't get the job done. If he finishes the season as the starter it will be only because the Browns are already so depleted at LB and someone has to fill the uniform. Pick him up only if your in dire need of a breathing starter... Earl Little saw his most extensive playing time on Sunday since being benched in favor of Chris Crocker. Little hasn't won back the position however and saw his action in nickel and dime packages. 

Dallas Cowboys
Marcellus Wiley has been one of the years biggest free agent busts to date but he did manage his first sack as a Cowboy on Thanksgiving. Wiley was benched in week 11 and just maybe that got his attention. He did continue to share time with former Jet Eric Ogbogu who tallied a career high 3.5 sacks and a forced fumble. Don't get excited about the big numbers by either of these guys as they came at the expense of the struggling Bears offense. That said its a safe bet Ogbogu will continue seeing significant playing time.

New York Jets
FS Jon McGraw is attempting to play with a sports hernia that will eventually require surgery. He was unable to go last week and even though he's expected to be listed as probable for week 13, I wouldn't count on it. Its the kind of injury that is easily aggravated and its doubtful he will finish another game this year even if he manages to start another one... There was some good news for the Jets in that DE Shaun Ellis, fresh off his new contract, was able to play and looked much quicker than he did a week ago. Ellis appears to be at or very near 100%.  

Detroit Lions
There is some good news on the Boss Bailey front in that he has finally begun practicing. The question now is how long will it take him to get into game shape? He isn't expected to be active in week 13 but may play a few snaps in week 14 if he makes it through practices without any problems. Chances are by the time he is back it will be way too late to have any impact on us for this year but we need to see where he plays when they do bring him back. My biggest fear (having drafted Lehman in a couple of dynasty leagues) is that they will bring Bailey back as a weak side backer and leave Teddy in purgatory. It would be real nice to get some read on this situation before the off season.

New Orleans Saints
After looking over the box scores from the Saints game with Atlanta I really wish I had watched this game closer. I would like to be able to tell you why Jay Bellamy doesn't show up at all but I can't at this point. What is very interesting here is the season high 5-0-0 by safety Mel Mitchell. I would assume that Mitchell replaced Bellamy for some reason but for the fact that we know Tebucky Jones missed time with leg cramps. At this point I can't confirm who Mitchell replaced. The important point however is that he is a guy to keep an eye on. Mitchell was set to start at SS last season when a knee injury took him down in preseason. He could emerge once again as a starter and would be very productive if that were to come about... Courtney Watson was a healthy inactive for Sunday's game due to disciplinary action by the team. No one is saying what he did and he is expected to play this weekend which may be a good thing since Derrick Rodgers looks to be headed to IR, Sedrick Hoge is expected to be out a couple of weeks with his knee and Colby Bockwoldt may miss week 13 with a sore neck. LB is getting to be a very thin position for the Saints.

Kansas City Chiefs
Bad keeps getting worse for the Chiefs who continue loosing starters from their already struggling defense. Shaunard Harts got the call at FS for Jerome Woods in week 12 and as expected posted excellent numbers (9-0-0). Woods playing status for week 13 remains in serious doubt so Harts is likely to get the call again. To worsen things KC lost Greg Wesley to a hamstring injury very early in Sunday's game. He is likely to sit at least this week and possible beyond with the injury. Willie Pile is expected to get the call at SS giving the Chiefs as many as 6 backup players in the lineup against Oakland. If you need someone to replace Wesley, Pile is probably as good an option as any you are going to find on waivers at this point. I would say grab Harts but unlike the '02 season when he was the top backup at both safety positions, it now looks like Harts will only play at FS when Woods sits... One note on the LB situation, Kawika Mitchell didn't play in the nickel packages against the Chargers. Scott Fujita and Quentin Caver handled those duties. 

Seattle Seahawks
It was reported late last week that rookie Niko Koutouvides would get the start at MLB for Seattle on Sunday but it didn't happen. Solomon Bates moved outside into Chad Brown's position and Orlando Huff got another start in the middle for reasons known only to God and Mike Holmgren. Huff did manage his best production since week 2 (5-2-0) but how obvious can it be that he isn't the answer at the position? Apparently Holmgren is one of those old school thinkers who doesn't believe a rookie should start no matter how much better he is than the guy in front of him. Just look at the safety position where an obviously more talented Michael Boulware sits and waits his turn.    

Oakland Raiders
Sam Williams was an "Al Davis" pick in the 3rd round of last years draft. He was considered a very raw talent and a "tweener" by most scouts but is beginning to make Big Al look good. After spending most of his career to date either injured or inactive, Williams has finally taken over at OLB in the Raider 3-4 scheme. He has yet to make a fantasy impact but this kid is lightening quick for a LB and has a ton of potential for owners in leagues that score heavy on big plays... Marques Anderson missed some action Sunday night with a quad injury but it isn't believed to be serious and he should be in the lineup this week. Stuart Schweigert replaced Anderson while he was out and continues to play FS in the nickel and dime with Ray Buchanan serving as the 3rd corner... Don't put to much thought into the lack of production by the Raiders inside linebackers this week. It was basically a fluke. Nothing has changed here so Danny Clark and maybe even Napoleon Harris should continue to be productive, especially considering the remaining schedule that includes KC twice as well as Jacksonville and Tennessee. 

Green Bay Packers
How important can 1 defensive tackle be to a team? Just look at the difference in the Packers now that Grady Jackson is back in the lineup. While he was out opponents shredded them on the ground but since he's returned they look like a different team. The ripple effect spread quickly as well and the rest of the group is stepping up. KGB is coming on strong and even Aaron Kampman is beginning to show signs of becoming a pretty good every down DE. He has averaged 4 solo's and has 3.5 sacks over the last 8 games... Darren Sharper is not quite 100% but was able to return to his starting role against the Rams. He suffered no setbacks and should be good to go. Put him back in the lineup this week against Philly.

That will do it for week 13 and each and every one of be back here looking for another win in week 14. Just Win Baby!

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