Eyes of the Guru - Week 13
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Posted 12/2 by John Norton, Exclusive to Footballguys.com
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For most of us this is the last week of the
regular season and for the many who are on the playoff bubble this amounts to
round 1. I just want to wish everyone the best of luck this week and hope you
are able to push deep into your playoffs. I know it will be an edge of the seat
weekend for me as I am still very much alive in 8 of my 9 leagues but need some
things to go my way this week in 2 of them. May the funny shaped ball bounce
your way in week 13.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Second year DE Dwayne White continues to see an increasing
workload and continues to shine. He now has at least half a sack in each of the
past 5 games and is pushing for even more time. The Bucks haven't been
disappointed with starter Greg Spires but lets face it, he isn't the most
talented guy. White is progressing well and is likely to take over the starting
job by or before next season. Dynasty owners be on the alert here... After
seeing significant action in week 11, recently signed Dexter Jackson
played a very limited role against the Panthers on Sunday. Hard to say at this
point what happened there or what week 13 will bring.
New York Giants
Don't expect Barrett Green to be a Giant in '05.
He's had all sorts of problems this season ranging from injuries to benching
then being inactive for disciplinary reason and now being ejected. Simply put
he's not that good of a player and he certainly isn't a Tom Coughlin kind of
guy... DT Norman Hand may sit this week with a groin injury. He would be
replaced by last years 1st round pick William Joseph who was benched by Coughlin
and would love to get another shot at the starting job... The club hopes to have Gibril Wilson back in action for week 13 but he has yet to practice with full
contact on his sore shoulder and will likely be questionable again.
St. Louis Rams
The Rams made due with transplanted SS Rich Coady at FS for a
few weeks but decided to to pick up Antuan Edwards who was cut by Miami right
after the new coach took over. Edwards being a natural FS was not only a good
fit but was in game shape. He didn't officially start against the Packers but
saw a great deal of action and could replace Coady as the official starter in the very near future.
at the very least he will continue to see extensive action as Aeneas Williams is
struggling with nagging injuries...
Someone needs to tell Mike Martz that continually benching one starter after
another isn't going to resolve the Rams problems on defense. Last week I talked
about the LB carousel and now it seems to have spread to include the DL. Damione
Lewis was yanked from the lineup Monday night which was a surprise move in
itself but the even bigger head scratcher is that he was replaced by undrafted
rookie free agent Bobby Howard instead of '03 first rounder Jimmy Kennedy. This
situation doesn't hold much fantasy value but is another one of those eyebrow
raisers that make you wonder just how good the Rams could be if they had a coach
with a little common sense?
Miami Dolphins
Zach Thomas started and made it through 2 series on Sunday
before being forced from the game when his hamstring tightened up. He didn't
worsen the injury and is expected to make another go of it this week. Thomas is
a two edged sword though. He has a great match up against a Bills club that
has rediscovered offense behind McGahee but how long will he play? Derrick Pope
got the call to replace Thomas against the Niners with Morlon Greenwood
remaining at WLB. There was speculation that Eddie Moore might play inside in
the absence of Thomas but that has been put to rest.
Washington Redskins
One of the many rumor flying around Washington is that Lavar
Arrington may end up on IR within the next couple of weeks. The season is lost
for the Skins and Arrington is still thought to be at least a couple of weeks
away from playing. He hasn't even returned to practice yet. He has however been
lobbying to do so. If he doesn't practice by the end of next week he's probably
done... Against the Steelers SS Ryan Clark turned in his lowest tackle totals
since taking over the starting job back in week 5. Don't panic, he's not hurt or
anything like that, it was just one of those things that happen. What you might
want to look at though is the Skins remaining schedule which isn't all that good
where Clark is concerned. Washington has games left with the Giants, Eagles,
Niners and Cowboys over the next 4 weeks. None of which provide what could be
considered a good match up for a strong safety.
Houston Texans
Jamie Sharper missed some time with a shoulder injury on
Sunday which helps explain his low production. He will be limited in practice and
there is a chance he could miss week 13. Though he is expected to play at this
point Sharper may be less than 100%.
Its a catch 22 here. A match up with the Jets is hard to beat but how effective
will he be with a sore shoulder? If you have a real good backup you may want to
consider sitting Sharper but I tell you right now I will be playing him if he is
active... Jay Foreman missed last weeks game with a sore neck and will also be
limited this week. He will practice late in the week but could sit again.
Instead of shifting Kailee Wong inside as speculated, it was Dashon Polk getting the
call to replace Foreman against Tennessee. If both Sharper and Foreman sit this
weekend Wong might be forced inside even if the coaches don't like it... FS
Marcus Coleman was able to play through his sore shoulder and still be
productive. He will take it easy in practice again this week and should be good
to go.
Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jags are on the verge of fading from the playoff hunt and
face a daunting task in the Steelers this week. This match up comes at a
particularly bad time for Jacksonville with Marcus Stroud still gimpy from a
sore knee. He didn't look good at all against the Vikings and was obviously
bothered by the injury. Stroud and John Henderson are the anchors of the unit
and will need to play well if Jacksonville is to have any shot at slowing down
the Steelers power running game. Henderson is coming off his best fantasy output
of the season (5-2-2) and should have another good game with this match up. He
should get strong consideration as a starter this week but I would be nervous
about playing Stroud the way he looked against Minnesota... Rob Meier looks to
be heading to IR with a knee injury of his own so Jason Gildon will be seeing a
lot more playing time the rest of the way. You know he will be very fired up to
face his former team this week and he would probably make an excellent sleeper
play. The Steelers may be rolling along but Big Ben has taken his share of abuse
from the pass rush having been sacked 11 times in the past two weeks... Mike
Peterson has been in a mini slump for the past couple of weeks but don't even
think about sitting him against the Steelers. MLB's Landon Johnson and Antonio
Pierce aren't exactly household names but they have gone 7-6-1.5 and 9-0-0
against Pittsburgh in the past couple of weeks.
Philadelphia Eagles
The Philly D is looking pretty good at this point with
Jeremiah Trotter stepping into the MLB role and Simoneau moving to WLB. It looks
like Nate Wayne will be available this week so now comes the moment of truth. Do
they go back to the way it was before with Trotter and Simoneau sharing the
middle? I think not, but then stranger things have happened. The bottom line
here is that there is a little risk in starting Trotter this week unless we get
some confirmation on the issue... It looks like the strong run by Brian Dawkins
is over and he's back to his usual inconsistent self. It was 4 games ago when he
last recorded more than 3 solo tackles and after this week the match ups aren't
very good the rest of the way. If you have been counting on Dawkins as a starter
for the playoff run you should start looking hard for other options. Its
probably more than just a coincidence that Dawkins fall off coincides with
Trotter taking over at MLB full time... The Eagles may be short handed at DE
this week against the Packers and both Jerome McDougle and Derrick Burgess are
likely to miss the game with injuries. This would make Jevon Kearse and Hugh Douglas
virtually every down guys. Kearse has been an "every down guy" all along and is
making some impact in the pass rush but his tackle numbers have been nothing
short of dismal (5 solo's over the past 4 games).
Tennessee Titans
FS Lamont Thompson has cooled off a lot since the bye week
with just 11 solo stops in the past 3 games but don't give up on him just yet.
The schedule over the next 4 weeks is simply brutal and provides 3 stellar match
ups for Thompson in the Colts, Chiefs and Broncos... Rocky Calmus made it
through another game healthy but the Titans LB corps took another hit with an
injury to Rocky Boiman who may be unable to go this week with a calf injury.
Calmus is a long shot for sure but with the remaining schedule he is likely to
be productive.
Cincinnati Bengals
Wouldn't you know as soon as the Bengals had settled on
starters at the safety positions Rogers Beckett gets hurt again. At least there
is some good news this time in that he didn't suffer a concussion. Beckett
suffered a neck strain about half way through Sunday's slug out
with Cleveland and didn't return. His status for this week's game at Baltimore
is not yet known. Its a great match up even without Jamal Lewis so if we learn
early enough that Beckett won't play don't be afraid to play Kevin Kaesviharn...
Madieu Williams has solidified himself as the starter at FS ahead of Kim Herring and
has to be a consideration for defensive rookie of the year. We can finally put
him in our starting lineup without having to pray that he plays full time .. The Bengals have
endured several injuries along the DL but have found a silver lining in the
cloud. Rookie Robert Geathers has played very well and adds a pass rush
dimension from the inside position that has been missing from this club for
years. He has 3.5 sacks over the past 4 games and has captured the starting job
from Langston Moore. Only time will tell if he will garner any fantasy attention
but there is potential here.
Carolina Panthers
Mark Fields was active and played against the Bucks on Sunday
but he was a scratch from the starting lineup in favor of Brandon
Short. Fields is battling a thigh bruise which undoubtedly contributed to his
limited playing time but Short has also played very well and is likely the
future starter for the team. Fields is nearing the end of his contract, not to
mention he's 32 and has missed a lot of action with minor injuries... Dan Morgan
is unlikely to return to action this week and is scheduled for further
evaluation. He has now suffered several concussions over the past two seasons
and one has to start wondering if/when he will call it quits while he still
knows his own name.
Chicago Bears
Word out of Chicago is that Brian Urlacher is still at least
a couple of weeks away from returning which all but insures us that Hunter
Hillenmeyer will be at MLB for the rest of our season. The Bears got yet another
scare Thursday when Lance Briggs had to be helped off the field. He was able to
return on the next series so the injury wasn't serious... More good news for the
Bears in that Charles Tillman may be able to resume his starting role at corner
as early as this week. Tillman was active and saw some action against Dallas. He
is one of the leagues top tacklers from the corner position and might make a
nice pickup for the playoff drive if he returns to form.
Cleveland Browns
Adding to the insult of giving up 58 points to their in state
rival on Sunday the Browns also lost a couple of starters on defense. DT Orpheus
Roye left on a cart before halftime with an apparent leg injury and did not
return. Shortly after half time starting MLB Andra Davis went down with a knee
injury and had to be carried off the field. There is no news on Roye yet but the
news on Davis is all bad. He's gone for the season and headed for IR. Barry
Gardner will step in as starter at least until he proves how bad he is and the
new coach yanks him. Gardner is an average at best player who just doesn't get
the job done. If he finishes the season as the starter it will be only because
the Browns are already so depleted at LB and someone has to fill the uniform.
Pick him up only if your in dire need of a breathing starter... Earl Little saw
his most extensive playing time on Sunday since being benched in favor of Chris
Crocker. Little hasn't won back the position however and saw his action in
nickel and dime packages.
Dallas Cowboys
Marcellus Wiley has been one of the years biggest free agent
busts to date but he did manage his first sack as a Cowboy on Thanksgiving.
Wiley was benched in week 11 and just maybe that got his attention. He did
continue to share time with former Jet Eric Ogbogu who tallied a career high 3.5
sacks and a forced fumble. Don't get excited about the big numbers by either of
these guys as they came at the expense of the struggling Bears offense. That
said its a safe bet Ogbogu will continue seeing significant playing time.
New York Jets
FS Jon McGraw is attempting to play
with a sports hernia that will eventually require surgery. He was unable to go
last week and even though he's expected to be listed as probable for week 13, I
wouldn't count on it. Its the kind of injury that is easily aggravated and its
doubtful he will finish another game this year even if he manages to start
another one... There was some good news for the Jets in that DE Shaun Ellis,
fresh off his new contract, was able to play and looked much quicker than he did
a week ago. Ellis appears to be at or very near 100%.
Detroit Lions
There is some good news on the Boss Bailey front in that he
has finally begun practicing. The question now is how long will it take him to
get into game shape? He isn't expected to be active in week 13 but may play a
few snaps in week 14 if he makes it through practices without any problems.
Chances are by the time he is back it will be way too late to have any impact on
us for this year but we need to see where he plays when they do bring him back.
My biggest fear (having drafted Lehman in a couple of dynasty leagues) is that
they will bring Bailey back as a weak side backer and leave Teddy in purgatory.
It would be real nice to get some read on this situation before the off season.
New Orleans Saints
After looking over the box scores from the Saints game with
Atlanta I really wish I had watched this game closer. I would like to be able to
tell you why Jay Bellamy doesn't show up at all but I can't at this point. What
is very interesting here is the season high 5-0-0 by safety Mel Mitchell. I
would assume that Mitchell replaced Bellamy for some reason but for the fact
that we know Tebucky Jones missed time with leg cramps. At this point I can't confirm
who Mitchell replaced. The important point however is that he is a guy to keep
an eye on. Mitchell was set to start at SS last season when a knee injury took
him down in preseason. He could emerge once again as a starter and would be very
productive if that were to come about... Courtney Watson was a healthy inactive
for Sunday's game due to disciplinary action by the team. No one is saying what
he did and he is expected to play this weekend which may be a good thing since
Derrick Rodgers looks to be headed to IR, Sedrick Hoge is expected to be out a couple
of weeks with his knee and Colby Bockwoldt may miss week 13 with a sore neck. LB
is getting to be a very thin position for the Saints.
Kansas City Chiefs
Bad keeps getting worse for the Chiefs who continue loosing
starters from their already struggling defense. Shaunard Harts got the call at
FS for Jerome Woods in week 12 and as expected posted excellent numbers (9-0-0).
Woods playing status for week 13 remains in serious doubt so Harts is likely to
get the call again. To worsen things KC lost Greg Wesley to a hamstring injury
very early in Sunday's game. He is likely to sit at least this week and possible
beyond with the injury. Willie Pile is expected to get the call at SS giving the
Chiefs as many as 6 backup players in the lineup against Oakland. If you need
someone to replace Wesley, Pile is probably as good an option as any you are
going to find on waivers at this point. I would say grab Harts but unlike the
'02 season when he was the top backup at both safety positions, it now looks
like Harts will only play at FS when Woods sits... One note on the LB situation, Kawika
Mitchell didn't play in the nickel packages against the Chargers. Scott Fujita
and Quentin Caver handled those duties.
Seattle Seahawks
It was reported late last week that rookie Niko Koutouvides
would get the start at MLB for Seattle on Sunday but it didn't happen. Solomon
Bates moved outside into Chad Brown's position and Orlando Huff got another
start in the middle for reasons known only to God and Mike Holmgren. Huff did
manage his best production since week 2 (5-2-0) but how obvious can it be that
he isn't the answer at the position? Apparently Holmgren is one of those old
school thinkers who doesn't believe a rookie should start no matter how much
better he is than the guy in front of him. Just look at the safety position
where an obviously more talented Michael Boulware sits and waits his turn.
Oakland Raiders
Sam Williams was an "Al Davis" pick in
the 3rd round of last years draft. He was considered a very raw talent and a "tweener"
by most scouts but is beginning to make Big Al look good. After spending most of
his career to date either injured or inactive, Williams has finally taken over
at OLB in the Raider 3-4 scheme. He has yet to make a fantasy impact but this
kid is lightening quick for a LB and has a ton of potential for owners in leagues
that score heavy on big plays... Marques Anderson missed some action Sunday
night with a quad injury but it isn't believed to be serious and he should be in
the lineup this week. Stuart Schweigert replaced Anderson while he was out and
continues to play FS in the nickel and dime with Ray Buchanan serving as the 3rd
corner... Don't put to much thought into the lack of production by the Raiders
inside linebackers this week. It was basically a fluke. Nothing has changed here
so Danny Clark and maybe even Napoleon Harris should continue to be productive, especially considering
the remaining schedule that includes KC twice as well as Jacksonville and
Tennessee.
Green Bay Packers
How important can 1 defensive tackle be to a team? Just look
at the difference in the Packers now that Grady Jackson is back in the lineup.
While he was out opponents shredded them on the ground but since he's returned
they look like a different team. The ripple effect spread quickly as well and
the rest of the group is stepping up. KGB is coming on strong and even Aaron
Kampman is beginning to show signs of becoming a pretty good every down DE. He
has averaged 4 solo's and has 3.5 sacks over the last 8 games... Darren Sharper
is not quite 100% but was able to return to his starting role against the Rams.
He suffered no setbacks and should be good to go. Put him back in the lineup
this week against Philly.
That will do it for week 13 and each and every
one of be back here looking for another win in week 14. Just Win Baby!
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