Eyes of the Guru - Week 14
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Posted 12/9 by John Norton, Exclusive to Footballguys.com
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Week 14 is upon us already and its playoff time
in most leagues. Each week from hear on out our readership is going to slip as
some of us are eliminated from the playoffs. With that in mind I want to let
everyone know ahead of time that the week 17 EOTG will be dedicated mostly to
next years upcoming talent. Not the college guys coming in but guys who are on
the verge and could/should get their chances in '05 and/or guys who are set to
become free agents and could make an impact if they land in the right places.
Its never too early to start looking at next year. As we always said at Red Eye
Sports, Championships are won in the off season!
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Dexter Jackson mystery has been solved. He didn't play
much in week 12 due to a hamstring problem which also limited his playing time a
bit in week 13. The injury isn't serious and he is being eased back into action.
Jackson is expected to replace John Howell at FS once he is completely
healthy... Dewayne White continues to impress and see extensive playing time.
He's now gotten to the QB in 6 straight games and could be on the verge of
replacing Greg Spires in the starting lineup. Spires suffered a knee sprain
against the Falcons but is expected to make a go of it this weekend. No one is
happier about the emergence of White than Simeon Rice who put up just 1 sack
over the first 5 games but has totaled 7 since week 6 when White began playing a
lot. If you lost John Abraham this week (like I did), White might be a decent
emergency pickup.
Atlanta Falcons
I'm sure many of you, especially those who have
been counting on Keith Brooking as a starter, are wondering what the heck has
happened to the tackle production. Brooking has just 21 solo stops over the past
six weeks or less than 4 per game. He is second on the club to Bryan Scott with
an unimpressive 31 over that span. the bottom line here is the vast improvement
of the Falcons defense in general. Teams just aren't running as many plays
against them as they have in the past. Even in the 27-0 smack down by Tampa Bay
on Sunday the Bucks ran the ball 31 times and completed just 13 passes. Three of
those plays resulted in scores leaving only 41 plays that resulted in tackles.
Brooking's move to WLB may also be somewhat of a contributing factor. Wth the
Raiders, Panthers and Saints on the schedule over the next three weeks, don't
look for much to change down the stretch. You probably should consider benching
Brooking for the playoffs, especially this week against an Oakland club that ran
just 10 times in week 13... SS Bryan Scott is fighting a shoulder injury so keep
an eye on his status this week.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Kendrell Bell continues to fight a groin injury that has some
in the organization concerned. He has already been ruled out for week 14 and in
reality isn't expected to try and play again until at least week 17. Bell went
for further evaluation this week and it was determined that surgery would not be
needed but I will be surprised if we see him again before next season. The
organization has to be running thin on patience with Bell who has struggled with
one injury or another his entire career.
New York Giants
You may remember several weeks ago when I suggested those of
you with MLB Kevin Lewis on the roster should hold onto him for your playoff
run. This is why, the Giants are in a death spiral having lost 5 straight and
there is talk of the team quitting on Tom Coughlin. Remember last season when
the same thing happened and the Giants linebackers were gold? It's likely to go
down the same way this time around with the only difference being the names of
the players. Lewis put up a 9-0-0 against Washington on Sunday and the Giants
remaining schedule suggests he could go up from there. The Ravens, Steelers,
Bengals and resurgent Cowboys fill out the rest of the season for the Giants so
if yor still holding onto Lewis, its time to play him... Barrett Green was
initially thought to be done for the season after reinjuring his already gimpy
ankle and spraining his knee last Sunday but he is now optimistic that he could
play as early as this weekend. While that might be a stretch, it doesn't look
like he will be gone for the season as initially reported so Nick Griesen owners
are still hanging in limbo... It doesn't look like Gibril Wilson will play again
this week as he continues to recover from a badly sprained/bruised shoulder.
Lets keep our fingers crossed that we get him back for week 15.
St. Louis Rams
After all the musical chairs the Rams linebackers have gone
through this season they were back to square one in week 13 with Tommy Polley at
SLB, Robert Thomas in the middle and Pisa Tinoisamoa at WLB. Its hard to say
with the scatterbrained Mike Martz at the helm if this will last the remainder
of the season but these are the clubs best linebackers so it should. The bad
news here is that the schedule looks bleak for anyone forced to consider
starting any of these guys. With the Panthers, Cardinals and Eagles in the next
three weeks there are no match ups that could be considered strong... DE Leonard
Little had his best game of the season against the Niners on Sunday which comes
as no big surprise considering the match up. For him the remaining match ups are
a different story and he could finish very strong. He needs 3.5 sacks to reach
double digits for the season and could make it considering the Cards and Eagles
have struggled to protect the QB at times and both clubs rely heavily on the
pass... Last years 1st round pick Jimmy Kennedy made his first NFL start against
the Niners but failed to distinguish himself. Demoted starter Damione Lewis
actually saw a great deal of playing time especially in the second half and
responded to his demotion by going 3-0-1. Look for him to return to the starting
role in short order.
Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings took a blow on Sunday with the loss of tackling
machine Antoine Winfield who is likely out a few weeks with a high ankle sprain.
Don't make the mistake of thinking his replacement Terrence Shaw is capable of
Winfield like numbers, it simply won't happen. Look for SS Corey Chavous to be
the benefactor in terms of increased tackle production with Winfield out... DT
Chris Hovan has been inactive for the past two games but no one is talking about
why. He was listed as probable with an illness heading into week 12 but was
inactive and sat again in week 13. Meanwhile Spencer Johnson has stepped into
the starting lineup and played well. His 5-1-1 on Sunday was a season high for
the youngster. Minnesota hasn't been getting much production from Hovan. When
asked about the situation Mike Tice claimed "we are just trying to find the
right combination in there for the playoff run".
Washington Redskins
DE Phillip Daniels returned from injury one more time in week
13 only to be lost for the season with a different injury. His dislocated wrist
will be enough to put a lid on his very forgettable '04 season. Daniels will
likely be back for next year though it is widely speculated that the club will
be concentrating on improvement in DL (and especially DE) talent over this off
season. The only guy who's job seems safe is Cornelius Griffin who has had a
great season... LaVar Arrington is expected to practice this week for the first
time in a month but will be listed as out for week 14. He could see some action
next week and might actually be able to start against the Cowboys in week 16.
Don't hold your breath though.
Houston Texans
The Texans have lost Jay Foreman for the rest of the year
with a severe ankle injury that may require surgery. DaShon Polk replaced
Foreman last week and took over for him again when he went down on Sunday. It
will be interesting to see if Foreman's being out for the remainder will make
any difference in their approach to replacing him. Polk is a decent backup but
not a long term answer. I have mentioned before the possibility of Kailee Wong
moving inside for next season if the team doesn't resign Foreman. Maybe we will
get a little peak at their future plans. Who ever gets the call has some fantasy
value though Jamie Sharper is the clear cut #1... Houston also lost FS Marcus
Coleman for the rest of the year with a shoulder injury. Marlon McCree started
for Coleman in week 12 and put up huge numbers. While I certainly wouldn't count
on that kind of production, McCree might make a decent play for the next couple
of weeks considering the Texans play the Jets and Colts.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Jacksonville enters week 14 with their backs against a wall
and facing a Bears club that got a boost of optimism from last weeks performance
against Minnesota. In my opinion the Jags are still a few quality players away
from being really good on defense. They are in need of a couple solid every down
defensive ends and won't be serious contenders until they get them. Jason Gildon
and Greg Favors are doing a decent job as fill ins or situational pass rushers
but they aren't going to be long term answers by any stretch... Akin Ayodele
lined up as the strong side backer on at least a few plays Sunday. I didn't
notice it until later in the game so I'm not sure what the deal is there. He
hasn't been much of a factor lately though and just maybe this is a contributing
factor.
Philadelphia Eagles
It has been widely reported that Hugh
Douglas has been promoted to starter at DE after the injury to Derrick Burgess
but don't get too excited about Douglas's potential. Against the Packers on
Sunday transplanted DT Darwin Walker actually got the call ahead of Douglas and
responded with 2 sacks of Brett Favre who had only been dropped 7 times all
season heading into the game. Meanwhile Douglas played in a limited role and
failed to show up in the box scores at all. The Eagles had been looking for a
way to get Sam Rayburn into the lineup at tackle anyway and may have stumbled
into a good thing. Philly has the Redskins and Rams over the next three weeks.
The two have combined to allow 67 sacks on the season so Walker might just be a
very good sleeper option for our playoffs... WLB Nate Wayne reinjured his
hamstring Sunday and could miss the rest of the regular season. This solidifies
Jeremiah Trotter and Mark SImoneau as the starters at MLB and WLB respectively.
Tennessee Titans
Injuries continue to mount on the Titans defense as they lost
yet another LB in week 13. Rocky Calmus just recently returned from a back
injury that had him out most of the season and has now been lost to a hamstring
injury that is expected to land him on IR. Brad Kassell will return to the
starting lineup for the rest of the season... Michael Waddell replaced Samari
Rolle is expected to miss up to
4 weeks with a knee injury. Waddell managed to top the teams box score with 8
solo tackles in the game and will be wearing a big orange target the rest of the
season. Being an inexperienced starter offenses are sure to pick on him early
and often... There was a little good news for the club though, rookie ends
Antuan Odom and Bo Schobel returned to action and made a strong showing for
themselves. Schobel recorded 6 solo tackles while Odom joined a small but
distinguished group of players who have sacked Peyton Manning this season. Quite
a feat considering Manning had been sacked just 6 times all season heading into
the game.
Cincinnati Bengals
In a press conference this week Marvin Lewis was asked if he
regretted letting Corey Dillon go. As part of his response he pointed out that
the team drafted Madieu Williams with the pick they got from the Dillon deal.
Nice move Marvin! Williams has established himself as a key playmaker on a
defense that is clearly headed in the right direction. Williams has established
himself as a starter but the club has yet to narrow down his position. Against
Baltimore he shifted back to SS with Kim Herring getting the start at FS.
Herring suffered a forearm injury during the game and was replaced by Kevin
Kaesviharn who went on to post a solid 6-1-0 in the game. Herring's status for
this week is still in question as is that of SS Rogers Beckett who sat out week
13 with a sore neck. If everyone is healthy Beckett starts at SS and Williams at
FS but this week anything could happen. The only sure thing is that Williams
needs to be in your lineup... Rookie MLB Caleb Miller was active on Sunday but
Landon Johnson got the start and played full time at MLB. The youngster is
playing very well and should hold onto the job the rest of this year at the
least. Johnson, Williams and Brian Simmons are guys who deserve a lot of
starting consideration over the next two weeks with the Patriots and Bills on
the schedule.
Carolina Panthers
Just in case no one noticed, Mike
Rucker found his way in to the sack column in week 13 for the first time this
year. This may be the most puzzling situation of this entire season.
Chicago Bears
He was expected to be out at least a couple more weeks but
Brian Urlacher not only made a return to the field against Minnesota on Sunday,
he made a huge impact. Urlacher showed no ill effects of the injury and will be
in the lineup the rest of the way barring a setback. This obviously ruins any
potential that Hunter Hillenmeyer may have held as he will shift back to SLB. It
also puts a big frown on the faces of all those Lance Briggs owners. His numbers
will undoubtedly take a beating with the main man back in action... Charles
Tillman made a big impact in his first game back which wasn't all that big a
surprise. What was a surprise is that he didn't do it by covering Randy Moss all
day. Tillman can be compared to Antoine Winfield in that he's a corner with an "uncorner
like" desire to hit people. He loves to make tackles and his role at corner
doesn't inhibit him as much as it does some guys. The Bears like to play cover 2
which puts Tillman in a run support role. They seemed to get away from that
at times while he was out but played
it a lot against Minnesota. Look for Tillman to continue being productive the
rest of the way... In an effort to keep more playmakers on the field the Bears
shifted R.W. McQuarters to FS against Minnesota replacing Todd Johnson. Early
returns on the move aren't all that promising. McQuarters has better cover
skills but was either hesitant from playing out of position or just plain not
suited to play FS. Either way he looked a little lost in the new position. It
will be interesting to see if the Bears continue with the experiment and if
McQuarters can grow into the role... Adewale Ogunleye was a game time decision
on Sunday but ended up starting and playing the whole game. The Bears used him
along with Alex Brown and Michael Haynes in a rotation situation which seemed to
work very well. So well in fact that they may continue using it even when
Ogunleye is completely healthy. Haynes has made some big plays this year and is
deserving of a bigger role.
Cleveland Browns
Just in case you didn't believe me last week when I made the
statement that Barry Gardner wasn't worth the transaction fee to pick up;
Patriots backs carried the ball a whopping 48 times against Cleveland but
Gardner could only manage a 3-4-0, good for 7th best on the team behind 3 DB's a
backup LB and a end. Point made.
New York Jets
The Jets may have lost John Abraham for the rest of the
regular season with a knee sprain. He has already been counted out for week 14
and the club is preparing as if he could be gone for a while by trying out free
agent DE's. Former 1st round pick Bryan Thomas will move into Abraham's starting
role but the club is looking at other options and situational substitutions.
Tackle Dewayne Robertson may be moved to end in running situations.
Unfortunately no one here is going to replace Abraham on our fantasy rosters. We
will have to look elsewhere to fill the gapping hole left by this loss.
Detroit Lions
Alex Lewis got the start for the Lions at WLB Sunday and
managed to top the box scores with a 6-1-0 in the game. Even more interesting,
Lewis was paired with Teddy Lehman in the teams nickel package. In short he an
Lehman were the full time linebackers. Lehman recorded the first interception of
his young career in the game but the lack of offense in general by the Cardinals
kept all the Lions IDP numbers in check. Its safe to say that won't happen again
this week against a Packers club that is likely to come out fighting like a
wounded animal this week.
Kansas City Chiefs
Some quick notes on the Chiefs for this week. FS Jerome Woods
status is reportedly "uncertain" for week 14 as he continues to battle a knee
injury. Shaunard Harts is likely to get his second straight start against
Tennessee on Monday night. I would be a little nervous about starting Harts
unless we hear more certain news on Woods later in the week. On the other hand
Greg Wesley is being called "unlikely" due to his hamstring injury. Its a pretty
safe bet that he won't play. Willie Pile will get another start and should be
productive again... Jared Allen posted another sack against Oakland and
continues to start for an injured Vonnie Holliday... Don't shy away from the
Chiefs linebackers down the stretch even though they basically stunk in week 13.
The Raiders ran the ball just 7 times "not counting QB scrambles" on Sunday so
the LB's didn't have much of a chance. The Titans will bring a much more
balanced attack.
Oakland Raiders
SS Marques Anderson missed last weeks game with a quad injury
and could be sidelined again this week. Rookie Stewart Schewigert got the call
at SS against KC and was the Raiders second leading tackler with a 7-1-0 mark.
Unfortunately the lasting impression left by the rookie was the missed tackle
that allowed Eddie Kennison to romp into the end zone with the game winner. That
certainly won't help Schweigert's cause any but the kid has a lot of talent and
no coach is going to go too hard on a rookie for making a mistake, even if it
does cost them a game. If Anderson sits Schweigert will get a shot at redemption
against Atlanta... OK I have been a big Napoleon Harris supporter all year but
the time has come to say uncle. The Chiefs ran the ball 36 times against Oakland
(without Priest Holmes) and Harris could only muster a 3-2-0. I'm officially
canceling my membership in his fan club until he becomes the player the Raiders
thought he would be when they spent a first round pick on him.
Green Bay Packers
Na'il Diggs spent a couple of days in the hospital after
suffering a bruised kidney against the Eagles. He isn't expected to be available
this week and will likely be replaced by Paris Lenon. Lenon isn't exactly a guy
I would be excited about starting in a playoff game but this weeks opponent is
the Lions who have finally discovered a running game behind Kevin Jones so he
might make a decent play in a pinch... The Packers were considered weak at DE
heading into the season but Aaron Kampman has developed into a very solid every
down player at the position. He's also become a decent fantasy option over the
second half of the season. Kampman has at least 4 solo tackles in 4 of the last
5 games (13 in the last 3 weeks) along with 3 sacks over that span. His
emergence has been a plus for KGB who has 6 sacks over the last 5 games after
just 1.5 total in the first 7. The Lions have allowed a middle of the pack 29
sacks on the season so don't hesitate to start either of these guys this week...
Darren Sharper continues to play through a knee sprain though he hasn't been
himself when it comes to production. His playing time has been somewhat limited
but he may be asked to play more this week with
Bhawoh Jue coming off a
concussion. Jue is expected to practice late this week and will likely be listed
as questionable.
That will do it for week 14, I hope everyone
will have a good reason to be back here for next weeks edition as well. Until
then, just Win Baby!
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