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Eyes of the Guru - Week 15

Playoff week 2 and I'm still alive in 5 of 7 head to head leagues! Hope everyone is having a successful season.

Arizona Cardinals
For the most part its been advisable to avoid the Cardinals linebackers all season due to their lack of consistency but with Ray Thompson's shoulder injury likely keeping him out of the mix, it becomes a safe bet that Ronald McKinnon and James Darling will be in the lineup full time over the final 3 weeks. This weeks game against the Rams isn't a great match up unless Steven Jackson returns but the final 2 games are against Seattle and Tampa Bay who are strong match ups at this point... I am still wondering if Peppi Zellner has pictures of Dennis Green in Terrell Owens tights or what? Something is keeping this guy in the starting lineup and it sure isn't his production.

Houston Texans
In the past couple of weeks I have been talking about the possibility of Kailee Wong moving to ILB now that Jay Foreman is on IR. I'm not sure if that has actually happened just yet but I can tell you this much. Jason Babin and Antwan Peek started at OLB/DE against the Colts on Sunday with Wong and Sharper as the linebackers. It wasn't exactly their normal 3-4 base defense and was more like a hybrid cross between the 3-4 and a nickel scheme with 5 DB's and only 2 down linemen. The outside backers played up at the line like defensive ends but lined up way wide to rush the passer like a 3-4 OLB. I'll try to watch them a little closer this week and see if that's something we can expect to see a lot in the future or if it was just a special thing they did to try and give the Colts overpowered offense a flat tire. Whatever it was it seemed to work as Houston held the Indy to their lowest point total of the season. 

St. Louis Rams
WLB Pisa Tinoisamoa was forced out of the week 14 game after aggravating a shoulder injury that has given him problems all season. He returned to the game but was mostly ineffective. According to the Rams he will need surgery in the off season to repair the problem long term. This goes a long way toward explaining his lacking production this season. Tinoisamoa is the only Rams LB not to be benched at some point during the season and should be a much bigger factor in '05 if he is healthy. You may want to look at sliding him on as a "throw in" for some off season deal just in case. 

Dallas Cowboys
After being a non factor most of the season DE Marcellus Wiley is finally starting to show up. Over the past 3 games he has 11 tackles and a pair of sacks, his best three game numbers since joining the team and his first 2 sacks as a Cowboy. He needs to finish strong to endear himself to coach Parcells who will almost certainly find a better place to spend all that money if Wiley isn't producing. Dallas has games remaining with Philly, Washington and the Giants, all of which present good opportunities for Wiley to shine... Lynn Scott has quietly made his way into the starting lineup in recent weeks replacing Tony Dixon. Back in late November Scott and Dixon were sharing the position but over the past couple of weeks Dixon's playing time has dwindled. Scott has 15 solo stops and a sack over the past 3 games and might be worth a shot over the next couple of weeks. He looks especially good in week 16 when Dallas faces the Redskins. 

Tennessee Titans
With the Titans running very short on bodies at LB and even shorter in the secondary, MLB Brad Kassell has become virtually an every down player. The Titans couldn't run a dime defense against KC because they don't have 6 healthy DB's left. This forced them to remain in their base defense nearly full time. Kassell has 16 solo stops in the last two weeks including a season high 9 against the Chiefs. He would be a worthy pickup and start this week if it weren't for the horrible match up.  

Oakland Raiders
Bob Henry and I shared a recent laugh when each of us read or heard an analyst talking about SS Stuart Schweigert's lacking speed. Everyone makes mistakes so I am not here to rip on anyone for the blunder but just in case any of you read or heard the same things let me set the record straight. This is an excerpt from a reputable draft publication prior to the April draft and as you can see Schweigert is anything but slow. In fact he edged out Charles Rogers in the 100 yard dash at the Michigan high school track championships a few years back. Schweigert ran a 4.4 40 at the combine and weighs in at over 200 pounds at 6 feet, 2 inches. He's got size, speed, playmaking ability and the ability to play up in the box in run support. If he really falls into the late 2nd, where most are predicting right now, someone's going to get a steal. He does have one weakness, and that is he tends to miss a few tackles now and then. Good scouting report as we saw him miss an important tackle that cost his team a game in week 13. With the Raiders out of the running they are likely to continue playing some of their young guys. Marques Anderson isn't healthy enough to go this week anyway so Schweigert will make at least one more start and likely finishes the season as the starter. He has 13 solo stops in his two starts and the Raiders have Tennessee, KC and Jacksonville left on the schedule, all of whom are good match ups for the SS position... WLB Travian Smith returned to action in week 14 after missing nearly the entire season with an injury. He played sparingly against the Falcons but could see an increased role over the final 3 games. The Raiders have been playing a lot of 4-3 but with Smith back in action they may look at more 3-4 the rest of the way. Its a little late to say pick him up but Smith could be very productive in weeks 16-17.   

Chicago Bears
Just when it looked like the Bears would have Brian Urlacher back for the last few games he reinjured his hamstring, and this time he did it right by tearing it. Obviously he is done for the year which puts Hunter Hillenmeyer back in the middle and makes Lance Briggs a top 10 linebacker for the next three weeks. Chicago has Houston, Detroit and Green Bay remaining on the schedule and all three of them are excellent match ups for linebackers at this point (Detroit is much different now that Jones is healthy). The Urlacher injury is also a plus for Mike Green who will have a few more opportunities along the way now as well... In an effort to get more big plays from their secondary the Bears shifted corner R.W. McQuarters to FS for the past couple of weeks. The experiment hasn't exactly worked as they had planned. McQuarters isn't comfortable in the new position thus isn't being aggressive enough. You can't be successful playing tentatively in the NFL. The team made another move this week that may prove very interesting long term when they signed Jason Shivers off the Rams taxi squad. There was a time when Shivers was thought to be one of the better safeties available in last years draft but his stock fell over the course of his senior season in college and he was bypassed in the draft. Shivers has some talent and ability and could see some playing time over the next three weeks. If he looks good there is a chance he could contend with a recovering Mike Brown next season. 

Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers are finding their depth chart very depleted at linebacker this week with Clark Haggans and James Farrior both being injured in the Jets game. Haggans is unlikely to go this weekend as his groin is very sore and keeping him out of practice. James Harrison is expected to get the start in his place with Alonzo Jackson seeing a little action as well. Harrison has been a pleasant surprise for the club in previous action and could be auditioning for a shot at the starting job next year. Haggans has struggled at times and not shown much consistency. Farrior has a sore shoulder but is practicing this week and is expected to start on Sunday

Carolina Panthers
The Panthers D got a big boost in week 14 with the unexpected return of Dan Morgan to the lineup. Morgan made a huge immediate impact and even more importantly made it through the game healthy. Carolina faces a Falcons club this week who leads the league in rushing, but that is a somewhat deceptive statistic considering QB Michael Vick makes up so much of their production. In short they are a very average match up for linebackers and could be even less than average with T.J. Duckett out of action. This and the fact that Morgan is so injury prone would make me very nervous about starting him in this one... The return of Morgan is also a bad sign for Will Witherspoon who's numbers are never as strong when Morgan is around. Witherspoon played a spy technique on Vick in one game last year and took a beating both on the field and in the box scores. Don't expect them to try that with him again... Chris Gamble left last weeks game early with a groin injury but is expected to be able to go this week.  

Buffalo Bills
Former NFL great Rod Woodson started a trend in the NFL when he shifted from corner to safety and added several years to his career. Since he did it several other have tried to make the transition with mixed results. Troy Vincent is the latest make the move. After spending most of the season on the inactive list Vincent made the start at free safety on Sunday and the early return look promising. Buffalo has long been in need of playmakers in the secondary so Vincent's sack, interception and fumble recovery in his first start have spawned a lot of excitement. Unfortunately for us fantasy geeks there is a down side, he only put up 1 tackle. Only time will tell if Vincent is more like Woodson or Jason Sehorn... Takeo Spikes has been somewhat of a disappointment this season but don't miss you chance to play him against his former club. players often come up with big games in these situations and at worst the Bengals are a good match up. 

New York Giants
It's not a good time to be a Giants fan these days but it might just be a great time to snatch up a couple of their defensive guys for the last couple of weeks. Brent Alexander had a career day with an 11-2-1 against Baltimore. With the G-men in a death spiral and the Steelers, Bengals and Cowboys remaining on the schedule, he is likely to put up big tackle stats the rest of the way. The Giants are crippled with injuries at this point. In fact Alexander is one of just 4 starters left on the entire defense... James Maxwell is next in line to start at WLB with both Barrett Green and Nick Greisen likely to be out this week. Any warm body in this situation has potential, especially a linebacker facing the Steelers. If you are sitting on MLB Kevin Lewis get him in the lineup this week... The Giants are so beat up that previously benched tackle William Joseph got the call to start at DE in week 14 with Kendrick Allen getting the start on the inside.      

Indianapolis Colts
The Colts linebackers have taken us on a real roller coaster ride this season and it's not over yet. Early on it was David Thornton looking like the man to have but he hasn't posted more than 5 solo stops since week 3. Then it looked like Cato June was stepping up for a while but he has averaged fewer than 5 solo's a game over the past month. Then there is Jim Nelson and Jim Morris who have thrown in a decent game here and there along the way and now rookie Gilbert Gardener is beginning to see action as well. The moral to this story is that the Colts are using too darn many linebackers for any of them to provide us any consistent value. Their defensive packages change from week to week depending on the match up and its virtually impossible to guess who is going to produce each week. That said look for Morris to be the winner this week against the Ravens, at least as long as the game remains close. Morris is the running situation MLB and the Ravens will try to run the ball down the Colts throats to keep their offense off the field as well as exploit Indy's weakness.

New York Jets
Sam Cowart saw his first real action since being injures early in the season but it didn't come at the expense of Jonathan Vilma. Cowart played some SLB against Pittsburgh replacing an ineffective Mark Brown who was playing for injured starter Victor Hobson. Cowart looked OK but its obvious that they don't plan to use him at MLB. It remains to be seen if he will get the call to start this week but chances are he will. Hobson was listed as probable for week 14 but was inactive and is now questionable for week 15... DE Bryan Thomas had another good outing in week 14 replacing John Abraham. He didn't record a sack this time but stood up well at the point of attack against the run, something that was considered a weakness for him in the past. Chances are he will play virtually full time the rest of the way as Abraham isn't expected to make it back before the playoffs at the earliest.     

Philadelphia Eagles
D-line injuries continue to mount for the Eagles who are very thin at the positions. Darwin Walker made his second consecutive start at end against the Redskins and produced his third sack in two games in the process. There is a chance Jerome McDougle will be able to go this weekend but chances are Walker will continue to see the majority of the playing time at the position. Hollis Thomas is out a few weeks with an elbow injury so Paul Grasmanis may be forced into the lineup after being inactive most of the season. The Eagles hope Corey Simon can play but he is questionable with a sore back that took him out of Sundays game early... Jeremiah Trotter has made a huge difference in the Eagles run defense and is making a strong case for them to give him a big new contract. He is currently signed only through the end of this season.        

Jacksonville Jaguars
A quick note on linebackers Akinola Ayodele and Daryl Smith. Apparently the Jaguars have followed the lead of several other clubs in that they are no longer playing strong and weak side linebackers. Instead Ayodele is plating left OLB and Smith right. This hasn't had a significant impact on their production but in the long run it will bring Smith up a notch while dropping Ayodele a bit. Neither guy is going to excel in this situation on a consistent basis.

Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals D faces another test against a suddenly hot Buffalo offense in week 15. Brian Simmons and Madieu Williams are every week starters and remain so but those of you who have been playing Landon Johnson in recent weeks may want to look elsewhere despite the match up. Caleb Miller has returned to action after missing several weeks with that nagging ankle injury and he is once again sharing playing time with Johnson at MLB. The pair combined to go 6-6-0 against the Patriots but neither of them were of any value alone. Chances are it will remain that way for the next 3 weeks... Duane Clemons is questionable with a knee injury this week and may be forced to sit. With Carl Powell already injured the starting job would likely fall to rookie Robert Geathers who has made a good impression in his limited playing time... Rookie Keiwan Ratliff got the call at corner for the injured Deltha O'Neal last weekend and is likely to make another start in week 15.           

New Orleans Saints
Courtney Watson is back in the saddle at MLB after Orland Ruff went down Sunday with a severe high ankle sprain. Ruff will likely miss the rest of the regular season so its safe to pick Watson up and start him if your in need. He won't be looking over his shoulder as the Saints have no one else to put in there. I know this one couldn't have come at a better time for me as I promoted him from taxi squad to starter in one of my leagues and plucked him off waivers to start in another. The Saints MLB position has averages 7-3-0 on the season with Ruff and Watson combining for a mark of 88-32-2 (both sacks by Watson).      

Seattle Seahawks
It took 14 weeks but Michael Boulware finally made his first start for the Seahawks and the results were excellent as expected. Terreal Bierria was questionable with a back injury heading into the game but even if he had been healthy the decision had been made to go with Boulware after Bierria was torched in week 13. If by some chance Boulware is still available he's a must addition to your squad and a must start... Holmgren finally woke up and smelled the coffee with Boulware but he still won't promote Niko Koutouvides to the starting MLB job for some reason. Even with all the injuries and the very average play of Orlando Huff it looks like Koutouvides will have to wait for next year (and maybe a new coach) to finally get his shot. Chad Brown may return to action this week which would send transplanted backup MLB Solomon Bates back to the bench... Grant Wistrom was carted off the field Sunday with a leg injury that is likely to end his season. He is expected to miss up to 6 weeks. Antonio Cochran will start in his place. Cochran did a decent job filling in earlier in the season and would make a good sleeper play in weeks 16 & 17 when Seattle faces Arizona and Atlanta, both clubs who have given up a lot of sacks.  

Kansas City Chiefs
It looks like both Shaunard Harts and Willie Pile will both get at least one more start before returning to back up duties. Jerome Woods has all but been ruled out for week 15 and Greg Wesley's status remains "uncertain" as of Tuesday evening. Both Harts and Pile put up very respectable marks of 6-4-0 on Monday night and will continue to be productive as long as they are in the starting roles. Don't hesitate to play either of these guys... The Chiefs got a little relief at LB with the return of Monty Beisel against Tennessee. He didn't start but replaced Quintin Caver at WLB for the second half posting very solid numbers (5-2-1) in the process. Look for him to take over the starting job in week 15 and be productive the rest f the way... Jared Allen continues to impress with another sack (his 7th) against Tennessee. The Chiefs are sure to be making whole sale changes on defense over the off season and one of them is likely to be the release of injury prone free agent bust Vonnie Holliday. Allen may have earned himself a full time gig.   

Washington Redskins
It's way too little and way too late but LaVar Arrington may see some action before the season is over. He is pushing team doctors to let him get back on the field and could return to practice later this week. Don't count on much from him even if he returns to the lineup. Arrington returned earlier this year and couldn't make it through a whole game... The Skins got a big scare Sunday night when Shawn Springs had to be carted off the field on a back board. The good news is that he will be fine but he probably won't play again this season. Walt Harris should step into the starting lineup in his place... Linebacker Chris Clemons was signed off the Browns practice squad on November 24th and is already contributing. Clemons has 2 sacks in three games since joining the team. This makes for a very interesting situation to watch looking toward next season... Don't get down on Antonio Pierce coming off his season low production against Philly. The moral to this story is NEVER start a linebacker who is playing the Eagles. They make no more than a token effort at a running game every week and are a horrible match up.  

Green Bay Packers
Paris Lenon will make a second start in place of WLB Na'il Diggs this week. He managed a solid 6-4-0 in his first start Sunday despite missing some time with a shoulder injury. He's sore this week but expected to be in the lineup come Sunday. Jacksonville is a strong match up for linebackers so Lenon should get some consideration if your in a pinch... Bhawoh Jue missed much of Sunday's game with a mild concussion. He will be listed as probable this week and should be active but Darren Sharper is expected to step back into his full time role at FS. Sharper still isn't 100% but is close and should be effective.         

Until next week, Just Win Baby!

John

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