Eyes of the Guru - Week 15
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Posted 12/16 by John Norton, Exclusive to Footballguys.com
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Playoff week 2 and I'm still alive in 5 of 7
head to head leagues! Hope everyone is having a successful season.
Arizona Cardinals
For the most part its been advisable to
avoid the Cardinals linebackers all season due to their lack of consistency but
with Ray Thompson's shoulder injury likely keeping him out of the mix, it
becomes a safe bet that Ronald McKinnon and James Darling will be in the lineup
full time over the final 3 weeks. This weeks game against the Rams isn't a great
match up unless Steven Jackson returns but the final 2 games are against Seattle
and Tampa Bay who are strong match ups at this point... I am still wondering if
Peppi Zellner has pictures of Dennis Green in Terrell Owens tights or what?
Something is keeping this guy in the starting lineup and it sure isn't his
production.
Houston Texans
In the past couple of weeks I have been talking about the
possibility of Kailee Wong moving to ILB now that Jay Foreman is on IR. I'm not
sure if that has actually happened just yet but I can tell you this much. Jason
Babin and Antwan Peek started at OLB/DE against the Colts on Sunday with Wong
and Sharper as the linebackers. It wasn't exactly their normal 3-4 base defense
and was more like a hybrid cross between the 3-4 and a nickel scheme with 5 DB's
and only 2 down linemen. The outside backers played up at the line like
defensive ends but lined up way wide to rush the passer like a 3-4 OLB. I'll try
to watch them a little closer this week and see if that's something we can
expect to see a lot in the future or if it was just a special thing they did to
try and give the Colts overpowered offense a flat tire. Whatever it was it
seemed to work as Houston held the Indy to their lowest point total of the
season.
St. Louis Rams
WLB Pisa Tinoisamoa was forced out of the
week 14 game after aggravating a shoulder injury that has given him problems all
season. He returned to the game but was mostly ineffective. According to the
Rams he will need surgery in the off season to repair the problem long term.
This goes a long way toward explaining his lacking production this season.
Tinoisamoa is the only Rams LB not to be benched at some point during the season
and should be a much bigger factor in '05 if he is healthy. You may want to look
at sliding him on as a "throw in" for some off season deal just in case.
Dallas Cowboys
After being a non factor most of the season DE Marcellus Wiley is
finally starting to show up. Over the past 3 games he has 11 tackles and a pair
of sacks, his best three game numbers since joining the team and his first 2
sacks as a Cowboy. He needs to finish strong to endear himself to coach Parcells
who will almost certainly find a better place to spend all that money if Wiley
isn't producing. Dallas has games remaining with Philly, Washington and the
Giants, all of which present good opportunities for Wiley to shine... Lynn Scott
has quietly made his way into the starting lineup in recent weeks replacing Tony
Dixon. Back in late November Scott and Dixon were sharing the position but over
the past couple of weeks Dixon's playing time has dwindled. Scott has 15 solo
stops and a sack over the past 3 games and might be worth a shot over the next
couple of weeks. He looks especially good in week 16 when Dallas faces the
Redskins.
Tennessee Titans
With the Titans running very short on bodies at LB and even
shorter in the secondary, MLB Brad Kassell has become virtually an every down
player. The Titans couldn't run a dime defense against KC because they don't
have 6 healthy DB's left. This forced them to remain in their base defense
nearly full time. Kassell has 16 solo stops in the last two weeks including a
season high 9 against the Chiefs. He would be a worthy pickup and start this
week if it weren't for the horrible match up.
Oakland Raiders
Bob Henry and I shared a recent laugh when
each of us read or heard an analyst talking about SS Stuart Schweigert's
lacking speed. Everyone makes mistakes so I am not here to rip on anyone for the
blunder but just in case any of you read or heard the same things let me set the
record straight. This is an excerpt from a reputable draft publication prior to
the April draft and as you can see Schweigert is anything but slow. In fact he
edged out Charles Rogers in the 100 yard dash at the Michigan high school track
championships a few years back. Schweigert
ran a 4.4 40 at the combine and weighs in at
over 200 pounds at 6 feet, 2 inches. He's got size, speed, playmaking ability
and the ability to play up in the box in run support. If he really falls into
the late 2nd, where most are predicting right now, someone's going to get a
steal. He does have one weakness, and that is he tends to miss a few tackles now
and then. Good scouting report as we
saw him miss an important tackle that cost his team a game in week 13. With the
Raiders out of the running they are likely to continue playing some of their
young guys. Marques Anderson isn't healthy enough to go this week anyway so
Schweigert will make at least one more start and likely finishes the season as
the starter. He has 13 solo stops in his two starts and the Raiders have
Tennessee, KC and Jacksonville left on the schedule, all of whom are good match
ups for the SS position... WLB Travian Smith returned to action in week 14
after missing nearly the entire season with an injury. He played sparingly
against the Falcons but could see an increased role over the final 3 games. The
Raiders have been playing a lot of 4-3 but with Smith back in action they may
look at more 3-4 the rest of the way. Its a little late to say pick him up but
Smith could be very productive in weeks 16-17.
Chicago Bears
Just when it looked like the Bears would
have Brian Urlacher back for the last few games he reinjured his hamstring, and
this time he did it right by tearing it. Obviously he is done for the year which
puts Hunter Hillenmeyer back in the middle and makes Lance Briggs a top 10
linebacker for the next three weeks. Chicago has Houston, Detroit and Green Bay
remaining on the schedule and all three of them are excellent match ups for
linebackers at this point (Detroit is much different now that Jones is healthy).
The Urlacher injury is also a plus for Mike Green who will have a few more
opportunities along the way now as well... In an effort to get more big plays
from their secondary the Bears shifted corner R.W. McQuarters to FS for the past
couple of weeks. The experiment hasn't exactly worked as they had planned.
McQuarters isn't comfortable in the new position thus isn't being aggressive
enough. You can't be successful playing tentatively in the NFL. The team made
another move this week that may prove very interesting long term when they
signed Jason Shivers off the Rams taxi squad. There was a time when Shivers was
thought to be one of the better safeties available in last years draft but his
stock fell over the course of his senior season in college and he was bypassed
in the draft. Shivers has some talent and ability and could see some playing
time over the next three weeks. If he looks good there is a chance he could
contend with a recovering Mike Brown next season.
Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers are finding their depth chart very depleted at
linebacker this week with Clark Haggans and James Farrior both being injured in
the Jets game. Haggans is unlikely to go this weekend as his groin is very sore
and keeping him out of practice. James Harrison is expected to get the start in
his place with Alonzo Jackson seeing a little action as well. Harrison has been
a pleasant surprise for the club in previous action and could be auditioning for
a shot at the starting job next year. Haggans has struggled at times and not
shown much consistency. Farrior has a sore shoulder but is practicing this week
and is expected to start on Sunday
Carolina Panthers
The Panthers D got a big boost in week 14 with the unexpected
return of Dan Morgan to the lineup. Morgan made a huge immediate impact and even
more importantly made it through the game healthy. Carolina faces a Falcons club
this week who leads the league in rushing, but that is a somewhat deceptive
statistic considering QB Michael Vick makes up so much of their production. In
short they are a very average match up for linebackers and could be even less
than average with T.J. Duckett out of action. This and the fact that Morgan is
so injury prone would make me very nervous about starting him in this one... The
return of Morgan is also a bad sign for Will Witherspoon who's numbers are never
as strong when Morgan is around. Witherspoon played a spy technique on Vick in
one game last year and took a beating both on the field and in the box scores.
Don't expect them to try that with him again... Chris Gamble left last weeks
game early with a groin injury but is expected to be able to go this week.
Buffalo Bills
Former NFL great Rod Woodson started a trend in the NFL when he
shifted from corner to safety and added several years to his career. Since he
did it several other have tried to make the transition with mixed results. Troy
Vincent is the latest make the move. After spending most of the season on the
inactive list Vincent made the start at free safety on Sunday and the early
return look promising. Buffalo has long been in need of playmakers in the
secondary so Vincent's sack, interception and fumble recovery in his first start
have spawned a lot of excitement. Unfortunately for us fantasy geeks there is a
down side, he only put up 1 tackle. Only time will tell if Vincent is more like
Woodson or Jason Sehorn... Takeo Spikes has been somewhat of a disappointment
this season but don't miss you chance to play him against his former club.
players often come up with big games in these situations and at worst the
Bengals are a good match up.
New York Giants
It's not a good time to be a Giants fan these days but it
might just be a great time to snatch up a couple of their defensive guys for the
last couple of weeks. Brent Alexander had a career day with an 11-2-1 against
Baltimore. With the G-men in a death spiral and the Steelers, Bengals and
Cowboys remaining on the schedule, he is likely to put up big tackle stats the
rest of the way. The Giants are crippled with injuries at this point. In fact
Alexander is one of just 4 starters left on the entire defense... James Maxwell
is next in line to start at WLB with both Barrett Green and Nick Greisen likely
to be out this week. Any warm body in this situation has potential, especially a
linebacker facing the Steelers. If you are sitting on MLB Kevin Lewis get him in
the lineup this week... The Giants are so beat up that previously benched tackle
William Joseph got the call to start at DE in week 14 with Kendrick Allen
getting the start on the inside.
Indianapolis Colts
The Colts linebackers have taken us on a real roller coaster
ride this season and it's not over yet. Early on it was David Thornton looking
like the man to have but he hasn't posted more than 5 solo stops since week 3.
Then it looked like Cato June was stepping up for a while but he has averaged
fewer than 5 solo's a game over the past month. Then there is Jim Nelson and Jim
Morris who have thrown in a decent game here and there along the way and now
rookie Gilbert Gardener is beginning to see action as well. The moral to this
story is that the Colts are using too darn many linebackers for any of them to
provide us any consistent value. Their defensive packages change from week to
week depending on the match up and its virtually impossible to guess who is
going to produce each week. That said look for Morris to be the winner this week
against the Ravens, at least as long as the game remains close. Morris is the
running situation MLB and the Ravens will try to run the ball down the Colts
throats to keep their offense off the field as well as exploit Indy's weakness.
New York Jets
Sam Cowart saw his first real action
since being injures early in the season but it didn't come at the expense of
Jonathan Vilma. Cowart played some SLB against Pittsburgh replacing an
ineffective Mark Brown who was playing for injured starter Victor Hobson. Cowart
looked OK but its obvious that they don't plan to use him at MLB. It remains to
be seen if he will get the call to start this week but chances are he will.
Hobson was listed as probable for week 14 but was inactive and is now
questionable for week 15... DE Bryan Thomas had another good outing in week 14
replacing John Abraham. He didn't record a sack this time but stood up well at
the point of attack against the run, something that was considered a weakness
for him in the past. Chances are he will play virtually full time the rest of
the way as Abraham isn't expected to make it back before the playoffs at the
earliest.
Philadelphia Eagles
D-line injuries continue to mount for the Eagles who are very
thin at the positions. Darwin Walker made his second consecutive start at end
against the Redskins and produced his third sack in two games in the process.
There is a chance Jerome McDougle will be able to go this weekend but chances
are Walker will continue to see the majority of the playing time at the
position. Hollis Thomas is out a few weeks with an elbow injury so Paul
Grasmanis may be forced into the lineup after being inactive most of the season.
The Eagles hope Corey Simon can play but he is questionable with a sore back
that took him out of Sundays game early... Jeremiah Trotter has made a huge
difference in the Eagles run defense and is making a strong case for them to
give him a big new contract. He is currently signed only through the end of this
season.
Jacksonville Jaguars
A quick note on linebackers Akinola Ayodele and Daryl Smith.
Apparently the Jaguars have followed the lead of several other clubs in that
they are no longer playing strong and weak side linebackers. Instead Ayodele is
plating left OLB and Smith right. This hasn't had a significant impact on their
production but in the long run it will bring Smith up a notch while dropping
Ayodele a bit. Neither guy is going to excel in this situation on a consistent
basis.
Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals D faces another test against a suddenly hot
Buffalo offense in week 15. Brian Simmons and Madieu Williams are every week
starters and remain so but those of you who have been playing Landon Johnson in
recent weeks may want to look elsewhere despite the match up. Caleb Miller has
returned to action after missing several weeks with that nagging ankle injury
and he is once again sharing playing time with Johnson at MLB. The pair combined
to go 6-6-0 against the Patriots but neither of them were of any value alone.
Chances are it will remain that way for the next 3 weeks... Duane Clemons is
questionable with a knee injury this week and may be forced to sit. With Carl
Powell already injured the starting job would likely fall to rookie Robert
Geathers who has made a good impression in his limited playing time... Rookie
Keiwan Ratliff got the call at corner for the injured Deltha O'Neal last weekend
and is likely to make another start in week 15.
New Orleans Saints
Courtney Watson is back in the saddle at MLB after Orland
Ruff went down Sunday with a severe high ankle sprain. Ruff will likely miss the
rest of the regular season so its safe to pick Watson up and start him if your
in need. He won't be looking over his shoulder as the Saints have no one else to
put in there. I know this one couldn't have come at a better time for me as I
promoted him from taxi squad to starter in one of my leagues and plucked him off
waivers to start in another. The Saints MLB position has averages 7-3-0 on the
season with Ruff and Watson combining for a mark of 88-32-2 (both sacks by
Watson).
Seattle Seahawks
It took 14 weeks but Michael Boulware finally made his first
start for the Seahawks and the results were excellent as expected. Terreal
Bierria was questionable with a back injury heading into the game but even if he
had been healthy the decision had been made to go with Boulware after Bierria
was torched in week 13. If by some chance Boulware is still available he's a
must addition to your squad and a must start... Holmgren finally woke up and
smelled the coffee with Boulware but he still won't promote Niko Koutouvides to
the starting MLB job for some reason. Even with all the injuries and the very
average play of Orlando Huff it looks like Koutouvides will have to wait for
next year (and maybe a new coach) to finally get his shot. Chad Brown may return
to action this week which would send transplanted backup MLB Solomon Bates back
to the bench... Grant Wistrom was carted off the field Sunday with a leg injury
that is likely to end his season. He is expected to miss up to 6 weeks. Antonio
Cochran will start in his place. Cochran did a decent job filling in earlier in
the season and would make a good sleeper play in weeks 16 & 17 when Seattle
faces Arizona and Atlanta, both clubs who have given up a lot of sacks.
Kansas City Chiefs
It looks like both Shaunard Harts and Willie Pile will both
get at least one more start before returning to back up duties. Jerome Woods has
all but been ruled out for week 15 and Greg Wesley's status remains "uncertain"
as of Tuesday evening. Both Harts and Pile put up very respectable marks of
6-4-0 on Monday night and will continue to be productive as long as they are in
the starting roles. Don't hesitate to play either of these guys... The Chiefs
got a little relief at LB with the return of Monty Beisel against Tennessee. He
didn't start but replaced Quintin Caver at WLB for the second half posting very
solid numbers (5-2-1) in the process. Look for him to take over the starting job
in week 15 and be productive the rest f the way... Jared Allen continues to
impress with another sack (his 7th) against Tennessee. The Chiefs are sure to be
making whole sale changes on defense over the off season and one of them is
likely to be the release of injury prone free agent bust Vonnie Holliday. Allen
may have earned himself a full time gig.
Washington Redskins
It's way too little and way too late but LaVar Arrington may
see some action before the season is over. He is pushing team doctors to let him
get back on the field and could return to practice later this week. Don't count
on much from him even if he returns to the lineup. Arrington returned earlier
this year and couldn't make it through a whole game... The Skins got a big scare
Sunday night when Shawn Springs had to be carted off the field on a back board.
The good news is that he will be fine but he probably won't play again this
season. Walt Harris should step into the starting lineup in his place...
Linebacker Chris Clemons was signed off the Browns practice squad on November
24th and is already contributing. Clemons has 2 sacks in three games since
joining the team. This makes for a very interesting situation to watch looking
toward next season... Don't get down on Antonio Pierce coming off his season low
production against Philly. The moral to this story is NEVER start a linebacker
who is playing the Eagles. They make no more than a token effort at a running
game every week and are a horrible match up.
Green Bay Packers
Paris Lenon will make a second start in place of WLB Na'il
Diggs this week. He managed a solid 6-4-0 in his first start Sunday despite
missing some time with a shoulder injury. He's sore this week but expected to be
in the lineup come Sunday. Jacksonville is a strong match up for linebackers so
Lenon should get some consideration if your in a pinch... Bhawoh Jue missed much
of Sunday's game with a mild concussion. He will be listed as probable this week
and should be active but Darren Sharper is expected to step back into his full
time role at FS. Sharper still isn't 100% but is close and should be effective.
Until next week, Just Win Baby!
John
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