Eyes of the Guru - Week 16
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Posted 12/23 by John Norton, Exclusive to Footballguys.com
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Hope everyone had a better playoff weekend than
I did in week 15. I came out on the short end in 3 of 4 playoff games but at
least that leaves me one shot at a Super Bowl win this week. Keep in mind that
next weeks EOTG will revolve around those rising stars who may make a big
fantasy splash next season so don't turn a deaf ear to FF altogether just
because your league is over.
Arizona Cardinals
Dennis Green must have finally realized that putting Peppi
Zellner on the field was a waste of time. Against the Rams Arizona went with a
nickel base defense that had SLB Karlos Dansby lining up at DE. Dansby has
proven to be a solid pass rush option with 4 of his 5 sacks coming in the last 6
games. He also has 17 solo stops (and 1 sack) over the past 3 games and has an
excellent match up this week against the Seahawks. If your playing match ups he
is worthy of consideration. The Cards also took a look at rookie Darnell
Dockett lining up at end. Dockett drew mixed reviews as an end but may get
further playing time there over the final 2 games. Apparently Calvin Pace has
found his way into Dennis Green's dog house. He was inactive for week 15 despite
being healthy.
Denver Broncos
Two different Denver defenders posted career highs in tackles in
Sundays embarrassing blowout loss to KC. Kenoy Kennedy went 10-0-0 in the game
and is a very hot option at this point. He has posted 3 straight quality outings
going 23-4-1 with an interception over that span and could continue his
productive ways against a Titans club that has had no trouble moving the ball
even without McNair. Rookie WLB DJ Williams also hit double digits for the first
time in his brief career going 12-0-1. Williams had been very average heading
into December but has a mark of 27-7-1 over the last three games and is coming
on strong. The Broncos have struggled of late to put it mildly and their spin
could continue this week. If your sitting on either of these guys get them in
the lineup.
Cleveland Browns
Injuries keep rolling in for the Browns who
are now likely to be without DE Kenard Lang this week after he suffered a knee
injury on Sunday. He was helped off the field during the game and was unable to
return. While Lang is not an every week starter for most people anyway, his
match up this week would have made him a strong consideration. The injury is not
serious and is not expected to require surgery but could keep Lang out of action
for the final 2 games... The Browns expect to have FS Chris Crocker back in
action this week after missing 2 games with a badly bruised biceps. Crocker
should return to the starting lineup if he plays but don't count on much from
him this week against the Dolphins... I wonder if someone lost their job for
scheduling the Browns and Dolphins for a prime time game this late in the
season? There is no more undesirable game on the schedule this week.
St. Louis Rams
Bryce Fisher was the official starter at right end against
Arizona but rookie Anthony Hargrove saw the majority of the action and came up
with big numbers (6-3-1). There is no official word that he will start in week
16 but he is certainly likely to play a lot. The Eagles without Owens could be
in trouble offensively. We know they don't have much of a running game so there
will be plenty of pass rush opportunity... If only there were some way to
anticipate when and which of the Rams linebackers would produce from week to
week. All three starters put up decent numbers against Arizona but don't even
think about starting them against an Eagles club that will very likely total
fewer than 20 rushing attempts.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Bucks coaching staff has finally pulled
the trigger on a move that was long overdue. Dewayne White has been named the
starter at DE opposite Simeon Rice. White has been sharing time with Greg Spires
all season at the position and has even played some DT along the way but the
Bucks have made the decision to move Spires inside permanently making White an
every down player at end. It may be too late for this news to have a big impact
for us this year but White will certainly be jumping way up the draft board for
'05.
Minnesota Vikings
The club expects to have Antonio Winfield back in action this
week after missing time with an ankle injury but don't rush him back into your
lineup. Chances are they will play him as their nickel corner this week against
the Packers and see how he comes through before returning him to his normal
role.
Oakland Raiders
Anyone starting Trent Green this week has
to love the news that neither Charles Woodson, Phillip Buchanan nor Marques
Anderson are likely to be in the lineup this week. All three are injured and to
add insult Anderson and Woodson are facing charges for public intoxication among
other things after an ugly incident early this week. The Raiders secondary was
torched by the Titans last week (which by the way, cost me a playoff game) and
it doesn't look like they will be getting any breaks in week 16 either. Denard
Walker and
Nnamdi Asomugha
are the likely starters on the corners this weekend. The Raiders have shown very
little ability to put pressure on the passer and took another hit with the
injury to OLB Sam Williams who will miss this week with an ankle sprain. Akbar
Gbaja-Biamila and Grant Irons are expected to fill the OLB position when the
Raiders use their 3-4 alignment.
Chicago Bears
The Bears have been hesitant to place Brian Urlacher on IR but
the MLB made the statement this week that he doesn't expect to return to action
this year. He could be placed on IR at any time but with just 2 weeks to go the
Bears may not bother to make that move unless there is someone they want to get
onto their roster.
Pittsburgh Steelers
James Farrior started the game on Sunday
but he was obviously bothered by the sore shoulder. The result was a big box
score for Larry Foote and just 2 tackles for Farrior. This week could very well
bring more of the same when the Steelers face off against Baltimore. If your
playing match ups this week you may want to consider giving Foote a play.
Pittsburgh has wrapped up everything but home field advantage in the AFC
championship game so don't be surprised if they have a little let down. They
almost let the Giants steal one from them and the Ravens are much better than NY
at this point.
Carolina Panthers
Will Witherspoon left Sunday's game early with a shoulder injury
and was unable to return. The injury is being described as a stinger and his
status for week 16 is yet to be announced. If he is unable to play look for
Brandon Short to see significant action but not necessarily at WLB. Chances are
Mark Fields would slide over to that position with Short playing SLB... Now that
our season is virtually over Mike Rucker seem to be coming out of hibernation.
He now has 2 sacks in the past 3 weeks after recording none previously. It will
be interesting to see if something comes out over the off season that somewhat
explains his disappearance for most
of this season. One thing is certain, he will be a steal in the late rounds of
next years drafts because of this years woeful numbers. If you can get him cheap
or as a throw in on a trade this off season, don't hesitate to do so. This is an
excellent player who had a bad year for some reason. He'll bounce back in '05.
Miami Dolphins
Word out of Miami is that the Fins are strongly considering
shutting down Zach Thomas for the final two games. Even if they don't make it
official there is very little chance he will play again this year which makes
young Derrick Pope the man for the the final two games. Pope has done a good job
in relief of Thomas but has a horrible match up this week against a Cleveland
club that may be the worst in the league bar none. If your in a league that runs
through week 17 however Pope still has some value. Week 17's match up against
Baltimore is as good as it gets.
New York Giants
OK so I was wrong about Kevin Lewis. I don't know how the guy
could fail so miserably with such a great match up but obviously he just isn't
that good. Neither is Nick Greisen for that matter but he still managed huge
numbers and is likely to have another big game against Cincinnati this week...
There will be a lot of new faces on this squad come next season but one position
they don't have to concentrate on is DE. Osi Umenyiora has proven to be a very
good every down player. Entering the season there was concern about his holding
up against the run but he has made great strides in that area and should come
into camp as the undisputed starter in '05... Several clubs have tried the
experiment of moving corners to FS this season with mixed results. New York was
forced by injuries to shift corner Terry Cousin to safety and may have stumbled
onto something. Cousin hasn't set the world on fire but as he becomes
comfortable in the position he is looking pretty good. So good in fact that he
probably has a shot at the job come next season... One big question to be
answered in New York for next year is at SS where Gibril Wilson replaced the
injures Shaun Williams and was nothing short of impressive. Williams is getting
up in years by NFL standards and is coming off a major knee injury, does he
loose his job to the youngster? I think so. Wilson is a product of the new
coaching staff which probably gives him the upper hand from the start.
Indianapolis Colts
The Colts have several defenders dinged up including OLB Cato
June, DE Robert Mathis and CB Nick Harper. All are expected to play in week 16
and should be considered as starting options. June is a particularly interesting
option this week as his game is speed and quickness which should make him a good
match up against Tomlinson. Don't expect much from Rob Morris this week though.
He isn't much in coverage and the Colts will likely play Jim Nelson a lot for
his speed to the outside. Nelson may be forced to cover Antonio Gates often over
the middle of the field as well. The Colts could get SS Bob Sanders back this
week but chances are he won't get the call to start even if he does play. He'll
likely be eased back into action and if everything goes well it will be Sanders
at SS and Mike Doss at FS come playoff time.
New York Jets
Sam Cowart saw his most extensive action in week 15 since
returning from injury however I wouldn't read too much into it just yet. He was
reported to have seen about 15 snaps in the "base" defense but what that report
failed to elaborate on is that it wasn't the Jets normal base defense. Against
Seattle they played a scheme that often added an extra LB to the mix in place of
a safety and actually lined up in a 4-4-3 with Cowart replacing Reggie Tongue.
Don't expect to see them use much of that against New England or St. Louis in
the next couple of weeks and don't hold your breath for Cowart being a Jet in
'05.
Philadelphia Eagles
After starting two games at DE Darwin Walker moved back
inside against Dallas with Hugh Douglas getting the call at end. Walker did
however move to end on several occasions with a relatively ineffective Douglas
coming to the sideline. This leaves us to wonder who will get the call at end in
week 16 against the crumbling Rams? The Philly pass rush should have a stellar
outing this week with the battered Rams in disarray so Walker might make a good
sleeper play.
Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals are a little concerned about the recovery of MLB
Nate Webster from major knee surgery. He reportedly had to have a second surgery
recently and is behind schedule in his rehab. Despite being lost very early in
the season, he may not even be ready for the beginning of training camp...
Heading into this season the Bengals thought they had found their answer at SS
in Rogers Beckett but his continuing injury issues now have them wondering if he
can do the job. To his credit Beckett had no history of injury issues before
coming to Cincinnati last season. He is not expected to go this week due to a
sore neck and is at the end of his contract once week 17 is in the books. The
team will probably look to resign him but it will be at a bargain basement
price... DE Duane Clemons is once again questionable with a knee injury this
week and is likely to sit. Carl Powell returned from his own injury to make the
start in Clemons place against Buffalo but rookie Robert Geathers saw a lot of
action as well. The same scenario is likely to play out this week.
New Orleans Saints
Courtney Watson returned to the starting MLB job last week
replacing the injured Orlando Ruff and will make another start in week 16 as
Ruff is not yet ready to return. Watson didn't put up very good numbers in the
game which was a real surprise considering the Bucks success at running the ball
but he will get another shot at proving himself this week against the leagues
top rushing attack of the Falcons. Use this game as a measuring stick for Watson
and consider that Dan Morgan had a solid game against them in week 15. Another
young LB who is making some noise is Colby Bockwoldt. The rookie 7th round pick
was very raw when he inherited the starting WLB job but has shown steady
improvement and has impressed the coaching staff with his work ethic and
accelerated learning curve. He may have a shot at keeping the job next year. The
Saints may get Sedrick Hodge back this week but they have not committed to his
returning as the starter as of yet.
Seattle Seahawks
Its getting uglier by the week in Seattle. Not only were they
embarrassed on Sunday but Chad Brown aggravated the foot injury that has
bothered him for the past couple of years and probably won't play this week. In
fact he may be done for the regular season and one has to wonder if he may have
played his last game in the NFL. Look for Solomon Bates to take over in his
place this week. Bates moved to OLB a few weeks back when Seattle had just 4
healthy bodies at LB with 3 of them being middle backers. Tracy White may also
see action in Brown's place but White isn't completely healthy himself.
Kansas City Chiefs
Greg Wesley returned to action in week
15 and picked up right where he left off. He came through the game healthy and
will be in the lineup for week 16. Jerome Woods is getting closer to returning
and has not yet been ruled out for week 16 but chances are he will sit one more
before playing in the finale. Look for Shaunard Harts to make one more start at
FS... The big impression in week 15 was made by MLB Kawika Mitchell who posted
career best numbers (9-1-2) against Denver. Mitchell saw time in the nickel
after Monte Beisel was dinged and forced out of action again. This kid has a lot
of upside and is in a great situation. Stay away from him this week though as
the Raiders have no running game and are a horrible match up for any
linebacker... The Chiefs are expected to place Vonnie Holliday on IR this week
ending his season and quite possibly his career as a Chief. Holliday has missed
a multitude of games throughout his career and may find it tough to land a job
in '05 based on his injury history.
Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens worst fear may be realized as Ray Lewis is
expected to be listed as questionable this week with a fractured wrist. He is
expected to wear a cast and attempt to play but will certainly not be 100% for
their must win game at Pittsburgh this week. Look for Ed Hartwell and Ed Reed to
pick up a few extra tackles even if Lewis does play. If he doesn't go snap up
Hartwell and start him.
Green Bay Packers
Paris Lenon is set to make another start at WLB this week in
place of Na'il Diggs who is still fighting a back injury. Lenon did a solid job
filling in for Diggs last week but I wouldn't consider him an option to start
this week based on his poor match up... Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila is day to day with
a shoulder stinger but the club is optimistic he will be able to go against
Minnesota this week in what amounts to a division championship game. Those of us
who have KGB need to stay on top of this one for sure as the Vikings have been a
gold mine as an opponent for defensive ends recently. Last week Detroit's
average pass rushing ends racked up 4 sacks of Culpepper. Don't hesitate to
start Aaron Kampman either if you happen to be sitting on him.
Until next week, Just Win Baby!
John
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