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Eyes of the Guru - Week 3

Buffalo Bills
Don't over react to the 4-1-1 put up by Pat Williams in week 2. While he is solid as they come when it comes to tackle production, Williams hasn't put up more than a single sack in a season since 2001. Don't count on more than a couple more at best the rest of the season. The Bills continue to have the same problems defensively that they have had in the past. They are good at holding down scores and yardage but just can't seem to make the game changing big plays on defense. Through two games they have just 4 sacks and 2 turnovers.

Indianapolis Colts
When Mike Doss went down in week 1 the Colts replaced him with Donald Strickland but Cory Bird returned from injury to step in for Doss in week 2 and put up big tackle numbers. Doss is likely to be out several more weeks and unless the Colts have a fairy godmother with a magic wand, their front 7 is going to continue to struggle. Jump on Bird if you have Doss or are in need for the short term but don't get comfortable with him as a starter as his days are numbered. There was a lot of preseason noise about Cato June and how he was going to be a great sleeper pick. So far the only thing June has proven is that David Thornton is still the Colts best linebacker and their best fantasy option. June has done some things well but continues to struggle when teams run at him. Meanwhile Gilbert Gardner who was June's competition early in camp, is expected to practice this week and is nearly over his ankle sprain. It will take a few weeks for Gardner to get game ready but if June and the rest of the D continue to struggle, look for Gardner to start in week 7 when the Colts return from their bye.  

San Francisco 49'ers
In years past Julian Peterson has been little more than a big tease for fantasy owners. A guy with huge talent that was stuck in a less than productive situation. Big games here and there among a slew of 4-1-0's has been the norm, however something seems to have changed in the SF scheme or maybe Peterson has just become a more consistent player. Either way he is off to a monster start with 13 solo tackles and 3 sacks over the first two games. If he slipped through your draft he is certainly a guy worth looking at. Derek Smith is also off to a strong start with a big week 1 and a solid encore against the Saints. Dating all the way back to Ken Norton the Niners LB's have been a model of inconsistency. Seattle should provide a good test this week. Another strong outing by either or both of these guys and I will have no choice but to start leaning toward them being for real this time.

Atlanta Falcons
There has been a Patrick Kerney sighting! The return to a 4-3 this year is the best thing that could have happened to Kerney. The next best thing to happen was the week one pass rush by his team mates. The Niners blocking scheme keyed on Kerney in week one and the result was that Kerney was shut down but Rod Coleman and Brady Smith were able to step up and land sacks. The Rams didn't key on anyone in particular Sunday and Kerney made them pay. The past the problem with Kerney has been inconsistency. A handful of big games with half a dozen 2-1-0's strung in there. So far there is nothing to suggest he will be any more consistent but he is certainly going to put up better numbers overall than he has over the past couple of years.

Philadelphia Eagles
Corners aren't normally at the top of my pickup list because they are generally inconsistent but don't waste any time jumping on Sheldon Brown. The Eagles don't play a straight cover 2 in the secondary but they do play a variation of it often which puts Brown in a position to make a lot of plays in run support as well as pass coverage. Philly also loves the corner blitz as evidenced by Brown recording a sack in each of the first two games. I don't normally have corners on my teams but picked Brown up in two leagues this week. He is 14-6-2 on the young season and the way he is being used there is a good shot he could keep it up for the duration.   

Chicago Bears
Injuries are again causing a shuffle in the Chicago secondary. FS Mike Brown had a huge fumble return for TD against Green Bay before tearing his Achilles and being lost for the season. If that weren't bad enough the club also lost #1 corner Charles Tillman for an extended period of time (possibly 10 weeks) with a knee injury. Bobby Gray will likely take Brown's spot in the lineup though Mike Green may actually be shifted to the FS position with Gray playing SS. Until we see them in action this weekend all this remains speculation but the one sure thing is that Green is now the guy to have of the group. His 12 tackles and 2 picks in two games are pretty convincing.       

Cleveland Browns
The Browns D took some serious hits this week with injuries to DT Gerard Warren (chest), CB Daylon McCutcheon (finger) and DE Courtney Brown (foot). The biggest impact of these injuries will be felt in team D leagues where the Browns had been making some unexpected noise over the first couple of weeks. Of the 3 injuries only Brown's has major implications in IDP leagues but then anyone who drafted this guy should have been expecting him to be injured anyway. The surprise here was the unexpectedly strong production of former Cowboy bust Ebenezer Ekuban who replaced Brown and played well totaling 4-0-1 on the day. Ekuban never panned out for Dallas but just maybe the change of scenery and a new opportunity will make a difference. I'm not overly optimistic about him but he has done enough to warrant further attention. Warren is expected to miss 2-4 weeks 4 and will likely be replaced in the lineup by Michael Myers. McCutcheon had surgery on his broken finger but at the moment his playing status has not been determined. Expect him to miss at least a game or two and possibly a lot more. CB Anthony Henry is off to a very strong start with interceptions in each of the first two games and a solid 5-1-0 in week two. Keep in mind that he had 9 picks as a rookie a couple of years back. He could become a fantasy option in short order if he can keep it up. I was not very high on Robert Griffith heading into this season but he is trying very hard to prove me wrong. He's been strong in the first two games and seems to have rekindled the fire that looked to be burned out over the past couple of seasons. Griffith has a lot of miles on him at this point in his career but then they say an old motor runs best right before it blows up. Maybe Griffith saw the writing on the wall and was motivated when the team drafted Sean Jones in April? Andra Davis owners have to be a little frustrated with his lacking production. There is nothing wrong with him and the scheme hasn't changed so hang in there guys, it will get better when the Browns start seeing some quality offenses. 

Seattle Seahawks
It appears the guessing about who will start at MLB has finally been put to rest in Seattle. At least for the time being. Orlando Huff got the call against the Bucks on Sunday and went the whole game at the position managing to lead the club with an 8-1-1 mark. The production of the position comes as no surprise as it is well known that the Seattle MLB job is a productive one. What is somewhat a surprise is Huff getting the job. Solomon Bates continues to be injury prone as he is now fighting a sore groin and the club is not yet willing to deal with the inexperience of rookie Niko Koutouvides. Huff is definitely not the long term answer for Seattle, who I believe will be Koutouvides, but its Huff until further notice so pick him up if you are in need of quality depth. Michael Boulware seems to be in a situation very similar to that of Sean Taylor in Washington. He's unquestionably the most talented guy at the SS position in Seattle but is seeing limited playing time behind some guy named Bierria for the time being. Boulware didn't start but saw extensive action in week one when Bierria was dinged. He played very well and it was expected that he would start week 2 which didn't happen. Boulware did however make his presence felt with his second interception of the year. Like Taylor, its a matter of time before Boulware is an every down player and a fantasy stud. The only question now is can you afford to wait on him?

New Orleans Saints
After big production in week 1 MLB Courtney Watson was a disappointment in week 2 going just 3-1-0. I'm not sure exactly what to read into this. He may have been dinged early on but what I can tell you is that Watson started and played most of the first quarter recording just 1 assist. He was replaced by Orlando Ruff near the end of the first with Ruff finishing the half. In the second half Watson was back in the game and posted 3 more tackles. There is no report of an injury to be found. Possibly the coaches saw something or wanted to get Watson's attention. I wouldn't worry too much about it yet but I would probably look at my other starting options for week 3 just in case. Darren Howard is supposed to return to practice this week but there is no word on his game status for week 3. Last week he was reportedly "no close to returning". I have to wonder is the 5-0-1 put up by rookie Will Smith may have helped heal the injury if you know what I mean. At any rate I believe the damage has already been done. Howard has missed a lot of games with injury over the past couple of years and Smith was drafted to be his replacement. Don't be surprised if Howard never regains his every down status completely as the club has been nothing short of impressed by Smith.

San Diego Chargers
I talked about Jerry Wilson last week but wanted to make mention again for those who may not have read it. The Chargers front 7 is not very good so the back to back quality numbers put up by Wilson are not a mirage. There is no one behind him to push for time and he is an adequate player in a stellar situation.

Houston Texans
Don't panic over Jamie Sharper's 1-1-0 from week 2. It was a fluke and not the beginning of a trend. The Lions ran the ball only 19 times all day and when they did the ran away from Sharper which also explains why Wong, Foreman and Coleman (all playing on the same side) were the teams top 3 tacklers on the day. It seems every year Sharper and Foreman have a couple of games where they struggle. Each of them has had one already so they should be out of the way now. If your looking for help at DB take a look at FS Marcus Coleman who has 6 solo's in each of his first two starts at FS. He's looked pretty solid there and there is no reason to believe he won't continue to be productive. One guy to keep a sharp eye on this week is rookie SS Glen Earl. Eric Brown is down for a while with a sprained MCL that could keep him on the shelf for several weeks. The Texans like Earl's potential and believe he could eventually be Brown's replacement. If he plays as well over the next few weeks as he did in pre-season, Brown could find himself being called Wally Pip.   

Cincinnati Bengals
Sometimes I would just love to talk to the "official" scorers of these games and see just what the hell they are watching while the games are going on. Being a Bengals season ticket holder I had a great view of the Sunday night game and I'll tell you right now Brian Simmons should have been about 9-2-0, Nate Webster at least 10-3-1 and Madieu Willaims about 7-2-0 in that game. The box scores listed for them are a farce. That said, both Simmons and Webster stepped up large for the Bengals and both should be considered as quality fantasy options. Webster blew in week one and Simmons didn't play at all with a sore knee. I don't know if it was coaching, the atmosphere of the Sunday night game, the return of Simmons or what but Webster played like a man on a mission against Miami and looked very much like a quality starting MLB in the NFL. Williams started at corner in week one for O'Neal and at SS in week 2 for Beckett. He played very well in both positions and has quickly become a valuable commodity for the Bengals and fantasy owners alike. Beckett is not yet close to returning and Williams could end up with the job even when he does. 

New York Jets
The big news here is the injury to Sam Cowart who is expected to miss 4-6 weeks with a knee sprain. We all know this really means he could be out 4-12. If Vilma is somehow available in your league, jump on him or if you have him tucked away on your taxi squad its time to get him active. For the next month or maybe even three, Vilma is going to be a top 15 LB or better. He is a very talented player and will play every down right from the start in a MLB position that has produced 18 solo tackles in two games. The only thing keeping Vilma behind Cowart this year was experience and he's going to get plenty of that now.. When you activate Vilma from your taxi squad, you may want to pick up Eric Coleman to replace him. The rookie has seen extensive playing time over the first two weeks and has looked very good. In week one he started against the Bengals going 5-1-0 with a pick, then in week two he came off the bench to post a 1-3-0 with another pick. The Jets really like this kid and all indications are that he'll soon claim the SS job on a full time basis.   

Miami Dolphins
The David Bowens experiment in Miami was a short one. Veteran journeyman Chidi Ahanotu got the majority of the playing time at end opposite Jason Taylor against Cincinnati and posted his first sack as a Dolphin. Ahonatu isn't going to be a big fantasy option in any situation but he is a quality veteran who provides some help for Jason Taylor. Most interestingly however is the amount of blitzing the Dolphins are doing to make up for the loss of Ogunleye. In past seasons it was fairly rare for this club to blitz but against the Bengals they sent extra rushers around 40% of the time if not more. the result was 2 sacks by DE's, one from the DT position, 1 from the linebackers and 1 from FS. This is clearly not the same Miami D we have been watching for the past several years. 

Pittsburgh Steelers
If its not too late or you can trade for him reasonably, try to get your hands on Troy Polamalu. He posted the first real quality fantasy production of his career against the Ravens and it won't be his last. We already know the kid has a ton of talent, the important news here is the way Pittsburgh used him against the Ravens. With Kendrell Bell still on the shelf Pittsburgh was playing Polamalu in an Archuleta like role; which is to say, as more of a linebacker. With Bell's history of being injury prone and slow to recover, we could see this scheme become the staple of the Steelers for the remainder of this season. After all they held Jamal Lewis to 62 yards on 24 carries and Kyle Boller passed for only 84 yards. If you are in need on the DL this might be a good time to look at DE Aaron Smith. After a disappointing '03 he went undrafted in a lot of leagues. Keep in mind however that in '02 Smith was a top 10 DL in most scoring systems with a mark of 54-18-6.5. After two games this year he's 6-3-2 with a fumble recovery. Its only 2 games but the history is there and the Steelers look much better on D as a team so far this year.    

Oakland Raiders
After a 9-2-1 against the Bills on Sunday a lot of people are starting to look at ILB Danny Clark. I know its tempting to take a chance but I fear Clark is no more than a mirage. First of all his history strongly suggests that he is no better than an average player who happens to have landed in a good situation. Beyond that is the fact that Napoleon Harris is close to returning to action and could even play some this week. The bottom line here is that Harris is going to be the fantasy stud in Oakland eventually. When he returns Clark will either move over or more likely head back to the bench. Hold onto your transaction fees or spend the money on Harris if he's out there. Despite spending a lot of time as an end in a 3-4 alignment Tyler Brayton has been very impressive through 2 games. His 10 solo tackles are tied for third most in the league among DL and his 2.5 sacks ranks 3rd on the young season. Its a tough situation to overcome and I don't know if he can keep it up but he sure looks good so far. When Derrick Gibson went down it looked like Stuart Schweigert was going to become a quality option. A week later the Raiders traded for Marques Anderson and made him the starter. Maybe the Raiders are starting to understand why the Packers were hesitant to make Anderson their starter. At any rate, Schewigert not only saw extensive playing time against Buffalo but out produced Anderson in the box scores. I believe he will take over a starting job within the next few weeks. 

Arizona Cardinals
The more things change the more they stay the same. New coaching staff in Arizona, new scheme, new players.. same old box score. Every year since Pat Tillman was a rookie the Cards have been led in tackles by one of their safeties. Apparently its Adrian Wilson's turn this year. Arizona remains weak in the front 7 and will be until the club quits concentrating on adding offensive talent at the expense of the defense. Quentin Harris is also playing well and it looks like he'll hold of Ifeanyi Ohalete and keep the starting job. Harris could be a quality pickup for depth or as a #3 starter. Another interesting pickup from Arizona would be James Darling who has apparently replaced Ronald McKinnon at MLB. There has been no official announcement by the team but Darling started against the Rams and there has been no word of an injury to McKinnon. Darling is a solid player who should put up good numbers if the change is permanent. Bert Berry showed a little value in week two and was a positive for the struggling Cards. If your looking for depth on the DL you might want to give him a look. There are some good match ups for him over the next few weeks including the Niners, Bills, Dolphins, and Giants all during the bye weeks.   

St. Louis Rams
Someone needs to call the producers of the TV show "Without a trace" and see if they will do an episode on Leonard Little. I didn't get to see much of this game but from what I can tell Little is just finding out how important it was to have Grant Wistrom on the other end. With Wistrom gone Little is seeing double teams and chip blocks on nearly every play and he's not doing well with it. Little desperately needs someone to step up at the other end to take some pressure off but unfortunately for him and those who have him, there is no Grant Wistrom on the Rams roster. It could be a long year for Little. My nomination for the tough guy award in week 2 is Pisa Tinoisamoa. This is a guy I didn't pay a lot of attention to until late in the pre-season when he came up in a conversation I had with Bob Henry. The closer I look the better I like this kid. He dislocated his shoulder in week 1 and missed over half the game but gutted it out in week two by not only starting but posting a team high 8-1-1. He looks like a good one.      

Kansas City Chiefs
When the Chiefs changed defensive coordinators in the off season there were those who honestly believed Gunther Cunningham would be able to make a silk purse out of horse dung. The first two weeks have basically proven that his name is Gunther and not Merlin. Never have I seen a defense so bad fail to make personnel changes over the off season but the Chiefs made none. The only new starter is MLB Monte Beisel and he was a backup at the position a year ago. If anything the Chiefs have gotten even worse. Beisel has quickly emerged as a quality fantasy guy with 18 solo stops in two starts. Grab him if its not to late cause its going to be a long season for the KC defense. Willie Pile got the start at SS for the injured Greg Wesley in week two. There has been very little comment on the injury to Wesley so an expected return time is not available. Those of us sitting on him are hurting but whatever you do, don't let this guy get away unless we find out he gone for the season. He'll be a monster in this situation once healthy.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Anthony McFarland managed the best game of his career in week two with a pair of sacks. The departure of Sapp allowed McFarland to slip into the playmaking role/position that Sapp formerly held. Even in his prime Sapp was very inconsistent so I'm not suggesting anyone run out and pick up McFarland right away but he is a very good player in a position with much more potential than the one he has held in the past. If your league starts tackles as a separate position he a guy that should be picked up. The rest of us just need to keep an eye on him at this point.  

Washington Redskins
Don't get me wrong, I really like Joe Gibbs but I wish the Skins would either crap or get off the pot with Sean Taylor. The guy is obviously their most talented FS yet they continue to insist on "bringing him along gradually". What's up with that? Get this guy on the field already. At any rate, Taylor did see more action in week 2 than the previous game and supposedly we can expect this trend to continue until some point later this season when he is finally installed as the starter. I guess we will just have to be patient. Antonio Pierce played another solid game in week 2 and may have put another nail in Michael Barrow's coffin. Barrow still isn't close to playing. I'm not sure what to think of the big game by Marcus Washington. He's a quality player but I just don't think he is going to be consistently productive. Until proven different we should consider his 4-3-0 of week one to be the norm with a big game thrown in here and there along the way. We really won't get a good read on these guys until Arrington (sore knee) is completely healthy. 

Dallas Cowboys
The numbers weren't large (5-0-0) but it was a very good feeling for Roy Williams owners to see his name once again atop the Dallas box score this week. The second year in the scheme is a contributing factor as both Williams and the defensive coaches are more comfortable but he also seems to be lining up a little closer to the line of scrimmage than he did a year ago. Williams numbers shold continue to be solid. Don't let his mere 2-0-0 on the week lessen the importance of the fact that Bradie James replaced Dexter Coakley as the starting WLB in week 2. James is going to be a productive player more often than not the rest of the way and should be on everyone's pickup list this week. Unless they play the punchless Browns every week, neither he nor Nguyen (3-0-0) are going to put up such weak numbers on any kind of a regular basis. A look inside the box score tells the tale of week 2. Cleveland ran the ball only just 22 times and Cowboys linemen accounted for 15 solo tackles. Its not the linebackers fault that the Browns backs couldn't get the ball past the DL.   

Minnesota Vikings
We are heading to week 3 and E.J. Henderson has posted only 8-4-1 thus far but don't even consider thinking he's a flop yet. In two games Vikings opponents have called just 34 running plays. In fact considering the Eagles backs totaled only 13 carries in all on Monday night, a 5-3-1 is actually very impressive. What is quickly becoming a concern with Vikings defenders is their lack of takeaways. This club which led the NFL in interceptions a year ago has yet to record one in '04. If they can't get it going all the DB's except Winfield are going to end up being busts. Winfield's production continues to lie in his impressive tackle numbers which obviously transcend schemes. If you can trade Chavous, Russell or Williams at this point I suggest you do it. One more very interesting note, Chris Claiborne was the listed starter on Monday night but Raonall Smith got the vast majority of playing time at SLB. No word yet about an injury to Claiborne so we have to assume at this point it was a coaching decision.  

Jacksonville Jaguars
It didn't take long for the Jaguars true colors to start showing through. To their credit they have surrendered just 16 points in two games which is very impressive but how long will this last considering they have just 1 sack and no interceptions to show for 8 quarters of action? Not long I would guess. They simply have to get something going or they will be in deep trouble once they start seeing some quality offenses. They were already thin at end before the broken leg suffered by Paul Spicer took him out of the mix indefinitely. Rob Meier may step into the position but is another unproven and inexperienced guy. This brings back into play the off-season rumors of Akinola Ayodele moving to end. More news on this situation as it becomes available.

New York Giants
The Giants box scores were down across the board in week 2 when it comes to tackle production but this isn't likely to become a trend. Not many offenses are going to be so generous as to give up 7 turnovers as the Skins did. Barrett Green suffered a sprained ankle shortly after scoring on the fumble recovery but is expected to play this weekend against the Browns. Don't expect a lot of tackles from any of the Giants this week though. The Browns have shown very little offensive fire power (especially on the ground) to date and have lost their most explosive offensive weapon in Winslow.    

Carolina Panthers
Dan Morgan is playing like a man possessed. He's topped the Carolina box score two weeks in a row with a total of 17-4-1 to show for two games. No surprise from a talent perspective but the fact that he's played two games in a row and isn't injured is a small miracle. Its a long way to the end of the season but things are looking good for Morgan owners at this point. Keep in mind that early in his career Keith Brooking was known in fantasy circles as Keith Broken. He has since shed the bad luck and become a perennial stud. This could be Morgan's break out year. Chris Gamble has secured a starting job at corner and will be a mainstay near the top of the Carolina box scores the rest of the season. As a rookie starting at corner offenses will target him as a weak link. Don't panic about Mike Rucker's conspicuous absence from this weeks box scores. The Chiefs game plan was to run away from Rucker and pick on the "weaker run stopper" Julius Peppers. Being a copy cat league, had this been successful it could have spelled trouble for Rucker owners. Fortunately Peppers held up well under the test so Rucker should be just fine.

Week 3 already, my how time flies!

Just Win Baby!

John

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