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Eyes of the Guru - Week 4
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Posted 9/29 by John Norton, Exclusive to Footballguys.com
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Tennessee Titans
It took a long time but there might finally be some fantasy
value to be found in the Titans secondary. Tank Williams topped the Tennessee
box score in week 3 with a very solid 8-0-0. while Lamont Thompson (4-1-0)
replaced an injured Lance Shulters (3-0-1) at FS. Schulters is expected to miss
several weeks with the foot injury which will open the door for former Bengals
second round pick Thompson to move into the lineup. Thompson was pushing
Schulters during camp and there were many who believed he should have come away
with the job to begin with. The bottom line here is that Schulters production
has been falling over the past 2 seasons and he could be out of a job if
Thompson continues to play so well. So why are the safeties starting to put up
numbers? Look no further than the front 7. Injuries have sidelined several key
components to the front 7 including 2 of the 3 starting linebackers. This could
be the beginning of a trend.
Detroit Lions
the bye week couldn't have come at a better time for an
injury riddled Lions defense that just keeps loosing players. The week of rest
will go a long way for guys like James Davis (ankle), Dre' Bly (knee) Jared
DeVries (concussion), Kalimba Edwards (foot), Andre Goodman (thigh), and James
Hall (thumb) who could all return to the lineup in 5. Boss Bailey is off
crutches finally and working on rehabing his knee. He's still at least a month
away from action so Teddy Lehman will continue to be stuck at SLB until sometime
in November... Couple of interesting notes from week 3, Corey Redding got the
start at DE in place of Edwards even though Edwards was active and did see
action, and the entire Lions DL (including backups) combined to go 5-2-1 on the
day. A fluke or a sign?
Indianapolis Colts
The Colts D finally had a good showing versus the run in week
3 but only because Favre was shredding their secondary at will. Cato June
continues to struggle when teams run at him and Gilbert Gardner (ankle) is
finally healthy. Gardner played special teams on Sunday and came out with no
setbacks. He and June were to compete for the right outside LB job during camp
before the ankle sprain decided the issue. Gardner is just a little slower than
June but is quite a bit bigger and more physical. If the run D continues to be
run over the coaches are going to start making changes. Keep an eye on this one.
Denver Broncos
Marco Coleman stepped into the Broncos starting lineup at DE
in week three and proceeded to lead the team in tackles for the game. Don't make
the mistake of wasting a F/A move on him. The guy is 34 years old and has never
been much of a fantasy option. He isn't going to start now. Reggie Hayward on
the other hand is becoming a more and more attractive option. He has at least
half a sack in all three games this season (2.5 total). Hayward needs to improve
his tackle numbers but is someone we need to start looking at.
San Francisco 49'ers
Brandon Whiting made the first start of his 49'er career on
Sunday in place of injured Andre Carter. He was fairly quiet with only a 3-0-0
in the game but he will be a welcome addition to this defense and has some
fantasy potential. The Niners are using a 4-3 scheme as their base D which helps
and Whiting is a solid every down player, strong vs the run and above average at
rushing the passer. His presence will be welcomed by Peterson as well. When/if
Andre Carter comes back, Whiting will probably bump Engelberger to the bench...
Due to past experience a lot of people (myself included) have been slow to
recognize the improved value of Derek Smith. He is normally a guy who has about
3 real good games a year and a whole bunch of 5-1-0's in the other 13 games. I
think where we are all slipping if that no one thought the Niners would be sooo
bad. The offense ran just 50 plays in the game while the D saw nearly 70. I'm
still a little apprehensive about Smith myself but so far it sure looks like he
could remain a very busy man.
Atlanta Falcons
The Falcons aren't doing it pretty and they aren't doing it
with a powerful offense but they are playing very well on D. The addition of Rod
Coleman at DT was the key to the newfound success up front. With Coleman and
Kerney on the same side offenses are stuck trying to block two excellent pass
rushers and when they over commit the other side of the DL is good enough to
make them pay. This is a very quick and aggressive scheme that the players are
loving. If Coleman is available in you league you need to snap him up. His
production isn't a fluke.
Philadelphia Eagles
Not to be overshadowed by the Eagles "other" big
addition, Jevon Kearse had a monster game against the Lions with the 4-1-3. This
was a particularly impressive feat considering the Lions have been the best in
the league at protecting their QB over the past two seasons, but there may be
some consequence to be paid. You can bet the Bears staff spent about half of
practice today working on how they are going to handle him this week. If he has
another great game the next opponent will spend just as much effort finding a
different solution, and so forth. The most important issue this week for Kearse
owners may not how Kearse produces but how the rest of the team reacts if/when
an offense commits to shutting down a particular player. One thing is certain,
Kearse is a perfect fit for this scheme.
Chicago Bears
The Bears D often looked overmatched against the
Vikings on Sunday but then being forced to play so many backups will do that
against a very good offense. Hunter Hillenmeyer replaced Urlacher at MLB after
his late week hammy re-injury and will likely get the start again in week 4. The
Bears are off week 5 which would allow Urlacher more time to recover. I suggest
you let someone else pick up Hillenmeyer, Chicago plays Philly this week which
is a horrible match up for a middle backer and Urlacher will be back for the
next game... News of note from the game: Michael Haynes saw an increased
workload though he still did not start. The additional playing time came at the
expense of Alex Brown. Its hard to say if this is something the club is moving
toward or if Haynes was just there because he's considered the better pass
rusher and the club was playing pass more often... Todd Johnson made a lot of
tackles on Sunday but also made some mistakes. At this point there really isn't
another good option for them as they are already playing all 3 healthy safeties
on a regular basis with Bobby Gray coming on as the nickel back often. Brown is
gone for the year, Urlacher could end up fighting the injury all year and the
club is starting a pair of rookie tackles, Johnson looks like a very inviting
pickup.
Cleveland Browns
Injuries continue to whittle down the options at LB for the
Browns. Ben Taylor was placed on IR this week making Kevin Bentley a lock to
start at SLB the rest of the year. Chaun Thompson will likely be the teams top
backup at all positions and thus far has shown no sign of challenging anyone for
a starting role... Sometimes scheme is everything for a player and so far its
looking like all those wasted years in Dallas by Ebenezer Ekuban
can be blamed on a poor fit. In three weeks he has
recorded what would be a season full of sacks (2) for him in Dallas. He doesn't
even look like the same player. He's been active as a tackler as well with 8
solos over the past two games. Three weeks does not make a season and I am not
completely sold on him yet but things are certainly looking up for him and he
has officially landed on the fantasy radar.
Seattle Seahawks
Rumors are that Orlando Huff is having some confidence issues
with all the speculation that he is the "weak link" in the defense. Holmgren has
reportedly been trying to boost his confidence and so forth. I didn't get to
watch much of this game but wonder by the box score if Holmgren has maybe
changed his strategy to a slap in the face instead. Huff opened as the starter
but Niko Koutouvides began showing up in the box scores early in the second
quarter. There has been no news of a lineup change but Niko was playing long
before the game became a blowout and I have to think this is the time to jump on
him. Seattle is on a bye this week so news will be scarce. If I find anything
I'll drop it on the MB... Seattle seems to have settled on Isaiah Kacyvensky as
the full time replacement for Chad Brown at WLB. He's a serviceable guy in a
good situation and would make a quality backup or a decent #3 starter... Grant
Wistrom was shut out of the sack column in week 3 but there is a very bright
silver lining here. Every other starting DL registered a sack. This means that
the next opponent has a lot to think about besides just Wistrom.
New Orleans Saints
Courtney Watson continues to be
productive posting a 4-2-1 against the Rams despite St. Louis running the ball
only 14 times on the day. He's playing well however there is growing concern
about his battle with leg cramps late in games. He's missed portions of two
games now with the problem. The club doesn't think its anything that will be a
long term issue but they want to get a handle on it... Anyone who has read my
work in the past knows I am not a fan of Tebucky Jones but I am one to give
credit when its due. Jones has 16 tackles over three games and is finally
beginning to show signs of being a decent NFL safety. It's way too early to get
excited about him but he's another guy creeping toward fantasy consideration...
It was a surprise to see Darren Howard in the starting lineup after missing so
much time but he went the whole way opposite Charles Grant and recorded his
first sack of the season as well. Howard is a big talent who just can't seem to
stay healthy. Those of you who picked up Will Smith may want to sit in him a
week or two if you can just to see how long it takes Howard to get hurt again.
San Diego Chargers
Its probably not significant but certainly a note of interest
that Donnie Edwards was not in the starting lineup for the Chargers on Sunday.
In fact he didn't show up in the box score until the first series of the second
quarter. There is no injury issue that I know of so I have to assume it was a
disciplinary issue. Sure would have been nice to get another 3-4 tackles out of
him though.
Houston Texans
The Texans SS position hasn't proven to be anything special
thus far in their short existence but Eric Brown has proven worthy of a backup
role in most fantasy leagues. Its looking like Brown could be out a while so if
your thin at DB or are building a dynasty you may want to move on Glenn Earl.
The rookie had a lot of people talking during the preseason and posted a solid
6-1-0 in his first career start on Sunday. The Texans haven't exactly been
overjoyed with Brown anyway so if Earl continues to grow and gain experience he
could very well keep the job... After a solid week 2 Jason Babin did a vanishing
act in week 3. Actually he was benched for mistakes and ineffectiveness,
replaced by Antwan Peek who recorded his first sack of the season. The long term
vision in Houston is Peek and Babin starting at OLB but the team isn't ready to
move Wong inside just yet. Babin is expected to continue starting but its
obvious that he will be on a short leash which makes him a risky play.
Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengal D took a huge hit when it
lost Nate Webster for the season to a knee injury. Webster was really starting
to step up and will be missed. That said, If you had Webster there is no time to
mourn. Pick up rookie Caleb Miller as his replacement. Miller was very
impressive during the preseason and actually started at WLB in week one when
Brian Simmons sat out. Unfortunately he suffered a sprained ankle in that game
and missed the next two. Watching this kid play during the pre-season I made the
comment to a friend "he's gonna be a stud one day". Maybe that day will come a
long time before even I thought it would. At the least he is a talented player
in a productive situation and won't be a bad pickup. Dynasty owners should be
all over this one! ... Kim Herring is closing in on a return to action and could
play as soon as week 6 after the Bengals bye. Rogers Beckett is questionable
again this week and probably won't play. Madieu Williams continues to start and
play very well at SS. He is however very versatile so if Beckett makes it back
before Herring, Williams will move to FS until Herring returns when I believe he
will move back to SS. Only time will tell on this one but the fact is the
coaches just love this kid and want him on the field. He already made starts at
corner and SS and is soaking in the experience.
New York Jets
Not a lot of news out of Jets camp over the bye week. Don't
forget Vilma is the starter at MLB for the next several weeks, though I may
refrain from putting him in the lineup against a dismal Miami offense.
Pittsburgh Steelers
The frustration continues for Kendrell Bell owners as he is
still not close to returning. Bell hasn't practiced at all and is now not even
speaking to anyone about it. If he doesn't start showing some progress I wonder
how long it will be before he lands on IR? ... With the weather conditions as
they were against Miami there isn't much to be learned from the box score.
Oakland Raiders
Probably the most interesting thing to mention about Oakland
this week is there defensive alignment. They used a 4-3 base defense against the
Bucks with Tyler Brayton and Bobby Hamilton on the ends, Travian Smith at WLB
and DeLawrence Grant at SLB with Danny Clark in the middle. A lot of people are
getting on the Danny Clark band wagon right now but I suggest you be careful if
your one of them. Now that Napoleon Harris is back and good to go, who do you
think is going to sit when the Raiders go 4-3? Clark reminds me a lot of Jay
Foreman. Before finding a home in the Texans 3-4, Foreman was a marginal starter
in a 4-3. Clark is a great fit as the #2 ILB in a 3-4 and I believe he and
Harris could very well mimic Foreman and Sharper if the Raiders ever commit to
the 3-4 full time. They may begin to lean that way now that they have the option
with everyone healthy but don't count on it until you see it happen.
Arizona Cardinals
There is a ton of newsworthy info
coming out of Arizona this week. Lets start with the thigh injury suffered by FS
Quentin Harris. He is listed as day to day as of Wednesday afternoon with what
has been termed a deep thigh bruise. This can be a particularly painful injury
and could end up keeping him out a week or two. Ifeanyi Ohalete was on the verge
of supplanting Harris late in the preseason when an ankle injury shut him down
for a few weeks. We have to consider the possibility that Ohalete could remain
the starter in this very productive situation for the rest of the season... The
Cards totaled 5 sacks in week three which is almost a quarter of their total
from last season. They are getting pressure from several players including
former Cowboy bust Peppi Zellner who made his first start for the Cards and
landed a pair of sacks. Both Zellner and Ebenezer Ekuban are former early round
picks of the Cowboys who stunk while in Dallas but are quickly making an impact
on other clubs. Have to start wondering what was going on in Dallas before the
Tuna arrived? Keep an eye on Zellner just in case he starts making a habit of it
... Those of us who took a shot on James Darling last week got burnt but only
because he suffered a concussion on the opening series. McKinnon stepped in for
him early on. The concussion is being termed "mild" and there is a chance he
could return return this weekend so you may not want to be in too big a hurry to
dump him ... Karlos Dansby didn't have a particularly big game but he did show
some versatility as a blitzer landing his first career sack. He only went 3-1-1
but he is remaining on the field in 2 LB sets which I believe will eventually
lead to some pretty solid production. He's the most talented LB on a struggling
team. That is a very good formula for success.
St. Louis Rams
Injuries continue to force shakeup for the Rams D
heading into week 4. MLB Robert Thomas left last Sundays game with a sprained
ankle and is in danger of missing some time. He was replaced in the game by
Brandon Chillar who didn't start at SLB due to being dinged himself. Tommy
Polley got the SLB start but is their most experienced LB and has played in
the middle before. Chances are if Thomas can't go Polley would start in the
middle and Chillar back at strong side. Polley showed flashes of potential
stardom as a rookie and has been dubbed an underachiever ever since. Maybe his
time on the bench helped to to reflect on things. Its a situation to watch
closely, especially if the Rams continue to struggle... It was announced last
week that Kwamie Lassiter, fresh off the street, would start at FS. He did
indeed start but was soon replaced by backup SS Rich Coady who proceeded to pile
up 8 solo tackles. Lassiter is not a very good player this late in his career
and the Rams may have just learned that lesson first hand. Look for Coady to
come away with the job on a regular basis until/unless some of their corners get
healthy and Aenaes Williams is able to return to FS.
Kansas City Chiefs
Last week I mentioned the unusual alignment that Arizona
opened in, this week the Chiefs just had to top it. KC opened in a 4-4-3 against
Houston on Sunday. Undoubtedly designed to challenge the Texans running game
with the thought that David Carr could not beat them with his arm. KC started
just one corner and two safeties with Kawika Edwards serving as the MLB and
Monte Beisel playing "spy" on Davis. While I doubt this is a scheme the Chiefs
will use often, it does go a long way toward explaining why the KC safeties
struggled as well as explaining Domonic Davis's poor outing... Keep an eye on
John Browning who is starting in place of Vonnie Holliday. The coaching staff is
really beginning to like him there and the rumor mill suggests he could bump an
ineffective Eric Hicks from the lineup once Holliday returns. Browning is a
solid run stuffer who generally posts good tackle numbers and is a decent pass
rusher. He's gone 8-3-1 over the past two games and is worth keeping an eye on
at this point.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
It's high time to start looking at slipping one of the Bucks
safeties onto your roster if you are thin at the position. The Bucks were
exposed on Sunday when the previously defunct running game of the Raiders ran
rough shod over them between the tackles all night. I bet Gruden spent all night
cursing the fact that they let Nate Webster get away. Shelton Quarles is a
liability against the run and it showed on national television. The entire front
7 looked slow. The result, 14 solo tackles by the starting safeties. Jermaine
Phillips now has 13 solo's over the past two weeks while Dwight Smith has posted
5 or more all three weeks. There is no sigh that the Bucks are going to turn
this around anytime soon so these guys are going to remain very busy.
Washington Redskins
Sean Taylor owners were rejoicing for a while on Monday when
Taylor made his first NFL start at FS. Unfortunately the excitement was short
lived when he left the field with an injury shortly there after. Taylor returned
to the game but was obviously bothered by the sore hamstring and didn't put up
very good numbers. The good news is that its not serious and the even better
news is that Taylor is likely to play full time the rest of the year. If he's
available leap on him or get him off the taxi squad and into your lineup. Matt
Bowen was also injured in the game and is day to day with a sore groin. The
promotion of Taylor is a blow to Bowen's value but doesn't ruin him by any
stretch, especially considering the injuries at LB. Don't get in a big hurry to
dump him. He could miss a game or two with a sore groin and is considered day to
day as of early Wednesday. LaVar Arrington sat out Monday after having his knee
scoped. The club is holding hope he will be able to go in week 5 or 6 but in
reality he may end up sitting until week 8 when the team returns from their bye.
In the meantime pick up Antonio Pierce if its not too late. He only posted 4
tackles against Dallas but then the Boys only ran the ball 20 times all night.
Barrow continued to heal slowly and his return is nowhere in site. Its becoming
a safer and safer bet that Pierce will keep the starting job even when/if Barrow
returns.
Dallas Cowboys
Last season the Cowboys D did a great job when it
came to yards and points allowed but they didn't produce enough big plays. A
second year in the system has brought them a long way. The scheme has added
among other things, a lot of blitz packages that they couldn't run in '03. Roy
Williams seems to have gained the most from the experience and the more
aggressive play calling. Watching him on Monday night there was an obvious
difference between this years Roy Williams and last. He's returned the physical
flying around style he exhibited as a rookie. The big surprise of week 3 was the
rebirth of a pass rush. Without spending a lot of time researching to be sure
I'm going to say its been at least 3 years since the Cowboys recorded 5 sacks in
a game and maybe longer than that since one of their safeties got in on the
action. Heading into the season Tony Dixon was a player that Parcells expressed
interest in replacing. He has picked up his game since that then and the club
has turned their attention to more pressing needs. Dixon had a huge game against
the Skins on Monday but I wouldn't be in too much of a hurry to jump on him. The
Cowboys obviously saw something they could exploit in film study and Dixon got
the job done. He could become a useful fantasy option but don't over react to
one big game. Everyone else the Cowboys play this year is going to be looking at
this game and will be ready for the safety blitz in the future. The more
aggressive scheme is also helping Greg Ellis greatly. His 11 tackles and 3 sacks
to date is the fastest start of his career. He's an under rated player that you
might want to try and get your hands on if the price is right. Don't panic over
the lack of production out of Nguyen, he'll be fine but there is some reason for
concern when it comes to Bradie James. He shared time with Coakley on Monday
night with Coakley playing in passing situations. Dynasty owners need to be
patient here but everyone else might want to start looking for better options in
case this trend continues.
Minnesota Vikings
No one is more thankful for the bye week than the Vikings
defense. Sunday saw both E.J. Henderson and Chris Claiborne go down early with
injuries. Dontarrius Thomas and Mike Nattiel replaced them and posted quality
numbers. Henderson owners took the worst beating here as he was off to a fast
start with a 2-1-0 on the first series alone. Thomas finished the day 8-4-0 in
Henderson's place. The Vikings are off this week and the club is saying that
Henderson may be good to go in week 5. I know he has had some bad match ups and
bad luck but giving up on Henderson at this point could prove a fatal error.
He's going to be a stud if he stays healthy... Another important factor here is
that Thomas had been benched for inconsistency and mistakes heading into the
game but played so well he was given a game ball in the locker room afterwards.
I'd say its safe to assume he will be back in the lineup at WLB come week 5 and
I think he's going to be a good one... Kenny Mixon returned from suspension and
got the start on Sunday. In the past he has proven to be a decent backup DL but
with the addition of Udeze playing full time, Mixon finds himself sitting on
most passing downs with Lance Johnstone being the designated rusher.
Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jags continue to win by shutting
people down on defense but they are still struggling to mount any significant
pass rush. The club has all but given up on getting pressure from the ends and
has turned to inside stunts and the blitz to get pressure from the tackles and
linebackers. Bother of their sacks against the Titans came from pressure right
up the gut... For the first time this year Daryl Smith out scored Ayodele on
Sunday. It seems the Jags like several other clubs have turned to a right side
left side LB scheme rather than a strong/weak. Both guys are listed on their
dept chart simply as OLB's. Ayodele started on fire last season then petered out
to be a very average player. Its beginning to look like he might follow the same
pattern this year. Daryl Smith on the other hand looks to slowly be getting more
comfortable.
New York Giants
Shaun Williams was replaced by Gibril Wilson at SS for
against Cleveland and all the rookie did was lead the team with 7 solo tackles
and make an interception along the way. The Giants Didn't say much last week
about the injury to Williams but the news came out Monday that he will miss an
extensive period of time after surgery to repair his meniscus. Wilson is a
youngster but played very well on Sunday and finds himself in a great fantasy
producing situation. Get him on your roster if you have room... Don't shy away
from the Giants LB's based on last week lack of production. The Browns offense
is hurting and they ran only 20 times in the game. The Giants are not nearly so
good as they have looked over the past two weeks. When they start playing
quality offenses the LB's will be gold.
That does it for week 4. Just Win Baby!
John
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