Eyes of the Guru - Week 5
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Posted 10/6 by John Norton, Exclusive to Footballguys.com
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Tennessee Titans
How bad are the injuries in the front 7 for Tennessee? So bad
that long snapper Ken Amato tied Keith Bulluck with 2 solo tackles this week
while some special teams guy named Ena finished third on the team with 3. UG-ly
with a capital UG! The Chargers game plan was a simple one. Block Bulluck and
run the ball right up the middle, it worked to perfection. The Chargers aren't a
great offensive team but had their way with the Titans D. All this suggests that
Tank Williams is a guy worth grabbing. It looks like several guys will remain
out for an extended period and the Titans schedule holds a lot of excellent
match ups over their next 10 games. Williams is on pace for an 84 tackle season.
He has 14 solo's over the past two weeks with the wounded Packers next on the
schedule... Brad Kassell returned to full time duty after recovering from a leg
injury and is holding down the fort at MLB while Rocky Calmus recovers from a
bad back. The problem is Calmus isn't showing a lot of improvement which
suggests Kassell may end up starting all season. He will never be confused with
a great player but Kassell could provide depth or a #3 starter as attrition
continues to eat away at everyone's rosters. He posted a solid 6-1-0 in his
first start Sunday.
Baltimore Ravens
Gary Baxter has been on fire for the
past 2 weeks totaling 18 solo stops against the Bengals and Chiefs. Baxter
totaled only 4 tackles but recorded sacks in each of the first two games. This
might be a very telling statistic. When teams are throwing at Baxter he is
allowing completions and making tackles, when they don't throw at him a lot, he
blitz's. That's a good combination for fantasy potential. KC had a lot of
success throwing on Baltimore. You can bet their next couple of opponents are
going to look at the same thing.
Detroit Lions
Boss Bailey is off crutches and working hard to get back in
action. The target date for his return however isn't until mid to late December
so don't count on his making much contribution this season. This also means
Teddy Lehman is likely doomed to the SLB position for the remainder of this
season...
Denver Broncos
Back to back 8 tackle games with a sack thrown in on one of
them will go a long way toward getting a guy noticed and Kenoy Kennedy has done
just that. At this point we have to ask which is the real Kennedy, the one with
16 tackles over the past two games or the one with 4 tackles over the first two?
I have personally never been a fan of Kennedy who generally has a few flashes of
brilliance mixed in with a bunch of less than average days. Keep an eye on the
situation but I wouldn't deem him worth the transaction fee just yet... One
thing that is evident with the Broncos is that they have very little pass rush
from their front 4. They registered just 1 sack against a Bucks offense that had
previously allowed 11 in 3 games and it came at the hands of DB Willie
Middlebrooks...
San Francisco 49'ers
Bad got worse for the Niners Sunday when Mike Rumph was lost
for the season with a nasty looking broken arm. This leaves the already thin SF
secondary in an even deeper hole. Rookie Shawntae Spencer moves in to the
starting lineup and immediately becomes a bundle of fantasy potential. IDP
veterans know the rookie corner rule, a rookie starter at corner will be
targeted by the offense thus naturally holds good fantasy potential. Jimmy
Williams likely becomes the 3rd corner... After getting off to a hot start
Julian Peterson had a poor week 4 box score. Peterson has been inconsistent in
the past but don't over react to one down week after his string of strong
outings. The Niners will continue to struggle and Peterson is their best
defensive player... Derek Smith's hot string came to a sudden halt when he
suffered torn ligament in his ankle. He's expected to miss at least a month and
maybe more with the injury. Jeff Ulbrich will take over Smith's job with Jamie
Winborn moving into the lineup. Ulbrich should produce on par with Smith and is
worth picking up if your in need. Winborn has a lot of potential but his
production will depend on how he is used. There is a chance Winborn might take
over Smith's passing down duties which would make him an every down player and
drop Ulbrich's value significantly.
Atlanta Falcons
After posting 100+ tackles last year
Chris Draft has been a complete bust in '04. This was not completely unexpected
if you have been reading the Eyes of the Guru for long. Draft is playing only on
running downs and then not on all of them loosing snaps to rookie Demarrio
Williams. He's just not a real good fit in a 4-3 scheme. If your still sitting
on him for some reason cut your losses and find a replacement that will
contribute. Dynasty owners should keep an eye on Williams. The coaches love his
physical skills and believe he will develop into a playmaker.
Philadelphia Eagles
Derrick Burgess has registered two sacks on the season and
has looked surprisingly strong starting opposite Kearse. Burgess has spent most
of his brief career on the mend from various ailments but claims to be
completely healthy for the first time in as a pro and is finally playing like
the Eagles have long expected him to. He has a way to go before gaining any
serious fantasy consideration but should be on our radar and worth watching at
this point.
Buffalo Bills
Strong safety Coy Wire is listed as questionable with a
bruised thigh on this weeks injury report and is expected to be replaced for
week 5 by Pierson Prioleau. Lawyer Milloy has proven slow to mend from the
broken arm suffered late in the preseason and isn't really close to returning.
Prioleau is a fundamentally solid veteran who doesn't make a lot of mental
mistakes but he is nothing special and is unlikely to make any fantasy splash.
Chicago Bears
Brian Urlacher is expected to return to action
when the Bears come off their bye in week 6. His temporary replacement Hunter
Hillenmeyer earned enough respect from the coaching staff during his brief stint
that he will replace Joe Odom as the teams SLB. Unfortunately for us Hillenmeyer
is not going to be able to overcome the limitations of the position to become a
fantasy factor... Mike Green is on track to register 96 solo stops this year and
unlike some of the other DB's who are off to fast starts, Green could actually
keep up the pace... Todd Johnson has totaled 12 solo stops over his 2 starts. He
doesn't have Mike Brown's knack for the big play but should provide at least
serviceable numbers the rest of the way... The bye gives the banged up Bears
secondary a chance to regroup. Rookie Nathan Vasher got the start in week 4
opposite R.W. McQuarters and is in line to keep the job. The rookie corner rule
would apply here.
Cleveland Browns
Injuries are again the story of the day in Cleveland where
there are now just 3 healthy linebackers who were with the club during camp.
Chaun Thompson moved into the starting lineup last week at SLB and Kevin
Bentley's quad injury ensures he will stay there at least for a while.
Seattle Seahawks
There are two big question I am looking
to answer here this week. First of all who will open at MLB this week? If it's
Niko Koutouvides I would suggest everyone jump on him. The other question is
will Michael Boulware come out of the bye week with the starting SS job? Both of
these guys are likely to take their respective jobs at some point during the
season and both will be productive once the do.
New Orleans Saints
OK even I am willing to admit the time
has come to pick up Tebucky Jones. Its against my better judgment considering
the history of this guy but there comes a point when you just have to look at
right now and right now he is hot. Jones has 26 tackles through 4 games which
has him on pace for 104 solo's. I seriously doubt he will reach that total but
the fact remains he has at least 5 combined tackles in every game thus far with
17 solo stops in the last two. Those are numbers that can't be ignored... With
Charles Grant lighting up QB's like a pinball machine over the first 4 games,
Darren Howard is enjoying a lot of 1 on 1 blocking. This pair is going to
compliment one another very well and should continue to produce. Howard is an
excellent pickup at this point and will make a good starter so long as he stays
healthy (which has been somewhat of a problem for him in the past)... Keep an
eye on backup safety Mel Mitchell in the coming weeks. Mitchell was in line to
start at SS last year before blowing out his knee during the pre-season. He saw
an increased role on Sunday against the Cards and could creep back into the
picture as the season progresses... I wouldn't get too excited about Derrick
Rodgers posting back to back 8 tackle games. Its possibly the first time he has
been productive two weeks in a row in his career. If he does it again against
the Bucks this week I may have to take a second look but I seriously doubt it...
The Saints traded for disgruntled Packers corner Mike McKenzie who will
undoubtedly bump someone from the lineup within the next couple of weeks.
Chances are Fred Thomas will be demoted to nickel corner duty... MLB Courtney
Watson has fluid drained from his knee early this week and will be listed as
questionable for week 5. The problem isn't considered serious and Watson
shouldn't miss more than one game if any.
San Diego Chargers
Terrence Kiel missed some time on Sunday with a shoulder
injury. He did manage to return late in the game which would suggest the injury
is not serious but these injuries often get more painful a couple of days after
the fact. Its tough to make tackles with a bad shoulder so check this out before
dropping Kiel in your lineup this week. He is listed as probable and expected to
play but may not be 100%... Looking for a decent addition at LB? Randall Godfrey
might be worth some consideration. He gone 6-1-0 with a recovery and 9-0-0 in
the past two weeks and looks very comfortable in his ILB role. Godfrey has
fought nagging injuries over the past few years and is playing with a sore knee
now but you would never know it by watching him... Interesting note: the Bolts
are one of just two clubs who have not allowed a rushing TD on the year...
Houston Texans
Glenn Earl got the start at SS in place of the injured Eric
Brown on Sunday and was having a pretty good day (4-0-0) before a hip pointer
sidelined him for much of the second half. Earl practiced on a limited basis
Wednesday but isn't on the injury report and is expected to go this weekend.
Brown on the other hand is still at least a couple of weeks away and could find
it tough to get his job back if Earl continues to play so well.
Cincinnati Bengals
Bengals trainers may be the most
thankful for the week 5 bye. Had they played this week there would have been
about 18 guys either on IR or listed questionable or worse. The linebacker
position is particularly hard hit. So hard in fact that the Bengals played
almost the whole game against Pittsburgh with only 2 backers on the field. This
helps to account for Brian Simmons 9-0-0. Rookie Caleb Miller got his first
start at MLB in the game but tweaked his sore ankle and was replaced by Kevin
Hardy late in the game. the week off will go a long way toward helping him get
healthy... Its starting to look a lot like Rogers Beckett may be forced out of
the game due to concussions. He's suffered 3 in his last 5 games and one in each
of his last 2. Expect Beckett to be placed on IR soon which makes Madieu
Williams a full time player for the remainder of the season. If he is somehow
still available go get him.
New York Jets
The Jets/Dolphins box score was one of the strangest I have
ever seen. John Abraham topped the New York side with a 3-1-2. On the other hand
there are few offenses as poor as the Dolphins. This was a fluke situation and
should in no way dissuade anyone from starting your Jets defenders. Especially
Abraham who is loving his new role that has him in an end position about 60% of
the time and standing up as an OLB 40%. Abraham loves the OLB position which
provides space to work with between himself and the blocker while keeping
linemen from getting their hands on him... Sam Cowart is progressing but is
still weeks away from a return so Jonathan Vilma is going to be a stud for at
least a few more weeks.
Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers continue to be without Kendrell Bell who is not
expected to miss a couple more weeks after having an operation to repair a
sports hernia. The organization is very optimistic in their estimate of Bell's
down time. In reality this is more likely to cost him 6 weeks than 2. Meanwhile
Larry Foote has stepped in and done a fine job in Bells place with 5 or more
tackles in 3 of his 4 starts including an impressive 9-2-1 against the Bengals.
I'm going to speculate now that Bell won't play much until December if at all so
Foote might be worth consideration if he continues to produce.
Oakland Raiders
In a surprise move Nnamdi Asomugha got the start at SS
against Houston on Sunday. He didn't play long enough to show up in the box
score though so I'm not sure what message we should take from this. Marques
Anderson saw the majority of the action at the position. Unfortunately the
Raiders don't seem ready to settle on one guy as their full time SS... Napoleon
Harris was supposed to see increased playing time against Houston but it didn't
happen. At this point its not been made clear if he was sore after last weeks
game and the club backed off his work load or if it was some sort of coaching
decision that limited his playing time. The best advice I can give at this point
is to sit on Harris until he's names starter which shouldn't take long.
Arizona Cardinals
Its official that Ifeanyi Ohalete has
taken over the starting job at FS from Quentin Harris. Ohalete is a pretty solid
veteran player who brings a good deal of fantasy potential to an already
excellent situation. If your in need at the position I wouldn't wait too long to
make a move for this guy... The Cardinals opened in a standard 4-3 scheme this
week but played a great deal of that 5-2 that the opened with in week 2. James
Darling returned to the lineup and for the second time this year led the club in
tackles. He's not going to be a stud but the club has obviously given up on
McKinnon as a full time player and Darling is playing on every down. He should
make a solid #3 starter or excellent backup unless there is some drastic shakeup
down the road. Another interesting note here, Karlos Dansby officially started
this game but in the second half Darling and Ray Thompson were the linebackers
nearly full time. Thompson led the clubs LB's in tackles last year and could end
up making a decent backup in large leagues... Former 1st round pick Calvin Pace
has registered sacks two weeks in a row now and could begin to garner additional
playing time if he continues to improve.
St. Louis Rams
Scan you leagues free agents just in case some impatient bone
head cut Leonard Little. I couldn't believe he was available in 2 of my 6 IDP
leagues this week. I don't think he is going to repeat last years numbers
without Wistrom in the mix to keep blocking schemes honest but he is certainly
not a guy to leave hanging on waivers... Adam Archuleta played a lot but didn't
start against the Niners on Sunday due to a sore back and hamstring. Rich Coady
actually got the start at SS with Aeneas starting at and playing all day at FS
after manning the corner position in week 3. Archuleta will be listed as
probable again for week 5 and will play but it could be a similar situation. He
managed a 5-0-0 against SF but playing part time would obviously make an impact.
Coady went 3-3-0, numbers that should have belonged to Archuleta. Garrett
appears to be the new starting corner... Interesting note, Bryce Fisher has
reclaimed the starting DE job opposite Little.
Kansas City Chiefs
You would never have known from watching the
Chiefs in week 4 that their D was among the worst in the league. 4 different
linemen registered sacks despite the Ravens attempting just 17 passes in the
game and Baltimore running backs mustered just 77 yards on the ground. While
this is certainly a huge step in the right direction for the Chiefs, they still
can't seem to come up with the big plays that were so instrumental to their
success in '03. KC is in the bottom half of the league with just 6 takeaways to
date. Eric Hicks had his best game thus far with a 4-0-1. This comes on the
heels of speculation that Hicks could loose his starting job to John Browning
once Vonnie Holliday is healthy. Sooner or later Hicks will realize that
Holliday is never healthy but maybe he'll stay more motivated. Heading into the
season I expected to see an improved pass rush from the Chiefs under the new DC.
They managed only 5 sacks through the first 3 weeks but racked up 4 against
Baltimore. Maybe we are seeing the beginning of a trend here. Hicks has proven
in the past that he can get after the passer and Browning is playing well... The
bye week will help the battered secondary to get healthy. Greg Wesley looked
good on Monday but a little more rest on his sore hamstring won't hurt. Jerome
Woods missed some time against Baltimore though I have so far not been able to
find out why. He was replaced by Shaunard Harts.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Maybe Derrick Brooks hasn't lost as much as may of us
previously believed he had. Judging by his production to date, it looks like his
fantasy status may have been held back over the past few season by playing on a
very good team. Now that the Bucks obviously aren't all that good anymore,
Brooks has again become a very good fantasy option. He's on pace for 116 solo
tackles this season... Only 4 teams have fewer sacks than the Bucks through week
4 and 3 of those 4 have played just 3 games. Even a great player like Simeon
Rice will struggle without help and the Bucks aren't giving him any. With just 6
tackles and 1 sack on the season Rice is off to by far his worst start ever
(barring injury). While I hate to suggest anyone cut a talented player like
Rice, he certainly belongs on the bench until/unless something gives here.
Washington Redskins
The Skins will have to go one more week without LaVar
Arrington who is doing some light work on his injured knee but isn't expected to
play until week 6. Michael Barrow also remains out and the team is reportedly
considering placing him on IR which would entrench Pierce as the starting MLB...
Matt Bowen returned to action Sunday after missing most of the week 3 contest
(and costing me a game) with a sore groin. He should be fine and obviously won't
suffer from playing along side Sean Taylor who is now the starter at FS. Taylor
put up the first decent production of his career (a 6-1-0) against the Browns on
Sunday but you can bet it won't be his last.
Minnesota Vikings
Minnesota will take the field in week 5 without starting MLB
EJ Henderson who is out with a sprained knee. There was speculation that he
might return after the teams bye week but the Henderson is not progressing so
quickly. He is listed as out on the injury report and could end up missing a
couple more weeks. If you need a solid contributor while Henderson sits look no
further than Dontarrious Thomas who replaced Henderson when he went down and
will get the start at MLB until Henderson returns... Chris Claiborne is
questionable this week with a calf injury and will likely be replaced in the
lineup by Raonall Smith. Smith has some potential but has struggled to stay
healthy. At one time he was considered the heir to the WLB job. A title that now
belongs to Thomas.
New York Giants
Shaun Williams landed on IR this week mostly due to his
injury but also because the Giants are so happy with the play of rookie Gibril
Wilson that they didn't feel the need to try and bring Williams back in
December. The Giants aren't as good as their record would suggest (especially on
defense) and Wilson is likely to end up the teams leading tackler on the
season... Don't give up on the Giants LB's Kevin Lewis or Barrett Green yet but
they have been disappointing over the past couple of weeks so it may be time to
start searching for a replacement. Neither of them have reached 5 solo tackles
since week 1 and one more week of sub par production would be enough to land
either of them on the waiver wire.
Green Bay Packers
The Packers got a scare when Darren
Sharper missed a few plays with a sore back on Sunday. It turns out the injury
isn't serious and Sharper is listed as probable this week... Na'il Diggs made
the strong point against the Giants that Nick Barnett is not the only Packer LB
that belongs on a fantasy roster. One big week doesn't mean much but Diggs is
likely to produce better than his first three weeks box score would suggest.
He'll top the Packers box score 2-3 more times before the season is over...
Don't get too excited about Aaron Kampman's big game against the Giants but put
him on the watch list. The Packers really like his potential but he's been slow
to progress.
Carolina Panthers
I had a customer email me asking what had happened to Mike
Minter this week. Minter owners will soon learn that this IS Mike Minter. He
will save the day for you one week and then drop the ball completely the next.
The worst part about it is that there is no rhyme or reason to his production
peaks or valleys. This is why he doesn't usually rank very high in the weekly
cheats. He's a good gamble as a 3rd starter on bye weeks or as a backup but you
probably don't want to rely on him as an every week starter...
That's a wrap for week 5.
Just Win Baby!
John
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