Forums
SiteMap
Login / Signup  
  Home  
Articles
•  Forecast  
•  Humor  
•  Links  
•  News  
•  Stats  
•  Tools  
•  Updates  
 
Pre  · 1  · 2  · 3  · 4  · 5  · 6  · 7  · 8  · 9  · 10  · 11  · 12  · 13  · 14  · 15  · 16  · 17  · P1  · P2  · P3  · P4
Eyes of the Guru - Week 5

Tennessee Titans
How bad are the injuries in the front 7 for Tennessee? So bad that long snapper Ken Amato tied Keith Bulluck with 2 solo tackles this week while some special teams guy named Ena finished third on the team with 3. UG-ly with a capital UG! The Chargers game plan was a simple one. Block Bulluck and run the ball right up the middle, it worked to perfection. The Chargers aren't a great offensive team but had their way with the Titans D. All this suggests that Tank Williams is a guy worth grabbing. It looks like several guys will remain out for an extended period and the Titans schedule holds a lot of excellent match ups over their next 10 games. Williams is on pace for an 84 tackle season. He has 14 solo's over the past two weeks with the wounded Packers next on the schedule... Brad Kassell returned to full time duty after recovering from a leg injury and is holding down the fort at MLB while Rocky Calmus recovers from a bad back. The problem is Calmus isn't showing a lot of improvement which suggests Kassell may end up starting all season. He will never be confused with a great player but Kassell could provide depth or a #3 starter as attrition continues to eat away at everyone's rosters. He posted a solid 6-1-0 in his first start Sunday.      

Baltimore Ravens
Gary Baxter has been on fire for the past 2 weeks totaling 18 solo stops against the Bengals and Chiefs. Baxter totaled only 4 tackles but recorded sacks in each of the first two games. This might be a very telling statistic. When teams are throwing at Baxter he is allowing completions and making tackles, when they don't throw at him a lot, he blitz's. That's a good combination for fantasy potential. KC had a lot of success throwing on Baltimore. You can bet their next couple of opponents are going to look at the same thing. 

Detroit Lions
Boss Bailey is off crutches and working hard to get back in action. The target date for his return however isn't until mid to late December so don't count on his making much contribution this season. This also means Teddy Lehman is likely doomed to the SLB position for the remainder of this season...

Denver Broncos
Back to back 8 tackle games with a sack thrown in on one of them will go a long way toward getting a guy noticed and Kenoy Kennedy has done just that. At this point we have to ask which is the real Kennedy, the one with 16 tackles over the past two games or the one with 4 tackles over the first two? I have personally never been a fan of Kennedy who generally has a few flashes of brilliance mixed in with a bunch of less than average days. Keep an eye on the situation but I wouldn't deem him worth the transaction fee just yet... One thing that is evident with the Broncos is that they have very little pass rush from their front 4. They registered just 1 sack against a Bucks offense that had previously allowed 11 in 3 games and it came at the hands of DB Willie Middlebrooks...  

San Francisco 49'ers
Bad got worse for the Niners Sunday when Mike Rumph was lost for the season with a nasty looking broken arm. This leaves the already thin SF secondary in an even deeper hole. Rookie Shawntae Spencer moves in to the starting lineup and immediately becomes a bundle of fantasy potential. IDP veterans know the rookie corner rule, a rookie starter at corner will be targeted by the offense thus naturally holds good fantasy potential. Jimmy Williams likely becomes the 3rd corner... After getting off to a hot start Julian Peterson had a poor week 4 box score. Peterson has been inconsistent in the past but don't over react to one down week after his string of strong outings. The Niners will continue to struggle and Peterson is their best defensive player... Derek Smith's hot string came to a sudden halt when he suffered torn ligament in his ankle. He's expected to miss at least a month and maybe more with the injury. Jeff Ulbrich will take over Smith's job with Jamie Winborn moving into the lineup. Ulbrich should produce on par with Smith and is worth picking up if your in need. Winborn has a lot of potential but his production will depend on how he is used. There is a chance Winborn might take over Smith's passing down duties which would make him an every down player and drop Ulbrich's value significantly.        

Atlanta Falcons
After posting 100+ tackles last year Chris Draft has been a complete bust in '04. This was not completely unexpected if you have been reading the Eyes of the Guru for long. Draft is playing only on running downs and then not on all of them loosing snaps to rookie Demarrio Williams. He's just not a real good fit in a 4-3 scheme. If your still sitting on him for some reason cut your losses and find a replacement that will contribute. Dynasty owners should keep an eye on Williams. The coaches love his physical skills and believe he will develop into a playmaker.

Philadelphia Eagles
Derrick Burgess has registered two sacks on the season and has looked surprisingly strong starting opposite Kearse. Burgess has spent most of his brief career on the mend from various ailments but claims to be completely healthy for the first time in as a pro and is finally playing like the Eagles have long expected him to. He has a way to go before gaining any serious fantasy consideration but should be on our radar and worth watching at this point.  

Buffalo Bills
Strong safety Coy Wire is listed as questionable with a bruised thigh on this weeks injury report and is expected to be replaced for week 5 by Pierson Prioleau. Lawyer Milloy has proven slow to mend from the broken arm suffered late in the preseason and isn't really close to returning. Prioleau is a fundamentally solid veteran who doesn't make a lot of mental mistakes but he is nothing special and is unlikely to make any fantasy splash.

Chicago Bears
Brian Urlacher is expected to return to action when the Bears come off their bye in week 6. His temporary replacement Hunter Hillenmeyer earned enough respect from the coaching staff during his brief stint that he will replace Joe Odom as the teams SLB. Unfortunately for us Hillenmeyer is not going to be able to overcome the limitations of the position to become a fantasy factor... Mike Green is on track to register 96 solo stops this year and unlike some of the other DB's who are off to fast starts, Green could actually keep up the pace... Todd Johnson has totaled 12 solo stops over his 2 starts. He doesn't have Mike Brown's knack for the big play but should provide at least serviceable numbers the rest of the way... The bye gives the banged up Bears secondary a chance to regroup. Rookie Nathan Vasher got the start in week 4 opposite R.W. McQuarters and is in line to keep the job. The rookie corner rule would apply here.           

Cleveland Browns
Injuries are again the story of the day in Cleveland where there are now just 3 healthy linebackers who were with the club during camp. Chaun Thompson moved into the starting lineup last week at SLB and Kevin Bentley's quad injury ensures he will stay there at least for a while.  

Seattle Seahawks
There are two big question I am looking to answer here this week. First of all who will open at MLB this week? If it's Niko Koutouvides I would suggest everyone jump on him. The other question is will Michael Boulware come out of the bye week with the starting SS job? Both of these guys are likely to take their respective jobs at some point during the season and both will be productive once the do.

New Orleans Saints
OK even I am willing to admit the time has come to pick up Tebucky Jones. Its against my better judgment considering the history of this guy but there comes a point when you just have to look at right now and right now he is hot. Jones has 26 tackles through 4 games which has him on pace for 104 solo's. I seriously doubt he will reach that total but the fact remains he has at least 5 combined tackles in every game thus far with 17 solo stops in the last two. Those are numbers that can't be ignored... With Charles Grant lighting up QB's like a pinball machine over the first 4 games, Darren Howard is enjoying a lot of 1 on 1 blocking. This pair is going to compliment one another very well and should continue to produce. Howard is an excellent pickup at this point and will make a good starter so long as he stays healthy (which has been somewhat of a problem for him in the past)... Keep an eye on backup safety Mel Mitchell in the coming weeks. Mitchell was in line to start at SS last year before blowing out his knee during the pre-season. He saw an increased role on Sunday against the Cards and could creep back into the picture as the season progresses... I wouldn't get too excited about Derrick Rodgers posting back to back 8 tackle games. Its possibly the first time he has been productive two weeks in a row in his career. If he does it again against the Bucks this week I may have to take a second look but I seriously doubt it... The Saints traded for disgruntled Packers corner Mike McKenzie who will undoubtedly bump someone from the lineup within the next couple of weeks. Chances are Fred Thomas will be demoted to nickel corner duty... MLB Courtney Watson has fluid drained from his knee early this week and will be listed as questionable for week 5. The problem isn't considered serious and Watson shouldn't miss more than one game if any.    

San Diego Chargers
Terrence Kiel missed some time on Sunday with a shoulder injury. He did manage to return late in the game which would suggest the injury is not serious but these injuries often get more painful a couple of days after the fact. Its tough to make tackles with a bad shoulder so check this out before dropping Kiel in your lineup this week. He is listed as probable and expected to play but may not be 100%... Looking for a decent addition at LB? Randall Godfrey might be worth some consideration. He gone 6-1-0 with a recovery and 9-0-0 in the past two weeks and looks very comfortable in his ILB role. Godfrey has fought nagging injuries over the past few years and is playing with a sore knee now but you would never know it by watching him... Interesting note: the Bolts are one of just two clubs who have not allowed a rushing TD on the year...

Houston Texans
Glenn Earl got the start at SS in place of the injured Eric Brown on Sunday and was having a pretty good day (4-0-0) before a hip pointer sidelined him for much of the second half. Earl practiced on a limited basis Wednesday but isn't on the injury report and is expected to go this weekend. Brown on the other hand is still at least a couple of weeks away and could find it tough to get his job back if Earl continues to play so well.    

Cincinnati Bengals
Bengals trainers may be the most thankful for the week 5 bye. Had they played this week there would have been about 18 guys either on IR or listed questionable or worse. The linebacker position is particularly hard hit. So hard in fact that the Bengals played almost the whole game against Pittsburgh with only 2 backers on the field. This helps to account for Brian Simmons 9-0-0. Rookie Caleb Miller got his first start at MLB in the game but tweaked his sore ankle and was replaced by Kevin Hardy late in the game. the week off will go a long way toward helping him get healthy... Its starting to look a lot like Rogers Beckett may be forced out of the game due to concussions. He's suffered 3 in his last 5 games and one in each of his last 2. Expect Beckett to be placed on IR soon which makes Madieu Williams a full time player for the remainder of the season. If he is somehow still available go get him.  

New York Jets
The Jets/Dolphins box score was one of the strangest I have ever seen. John Abraham topped the New York side with a 3-1-2. On the other hand there are few offenses as poor as the Dolphins. This was a fluke situation and should in no way dissuade anyone from starting your Jets defenders. Especially Abraham who is loving his new role that has him in an end position about 60% of the time and standing up as an OLB 40%. Abraham loves the OLB position which provides space to work with between himself and the blocker while keeping linemen from getting their hands on him... Sam Cowart is progressing but is still weeks away from a return so Jonathan Vilma is going to be a stud for at least a few more weeks.    

Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers continue to be without Kendrell Bell who is not expected to miss a couple more weeks after having an operation to repair a sports hernia. The organization is very optimistic in their estimate of Bell's down time. In reality this is more likely to cost him 6 weeks than 2. Meanwhile Larry Foote has stepped in and done a fine job in Bells place with 5 or more tackles in 3 of his 4 starts including an impressive 9-2-1 against the Bengals. I'm going to speculate now that Bell won't play much until December if at all so Foote might be worth consideration if he continues to produce.       

Oakland Raiders
In a surprise move Nnamdi Asomugha got the start at SS against Houston on Sunday. He didn't play long enough to show up in the box score though so I'm not sure what message we should take from this. Marques Anderson saw the majority of the action at the position. Unfortunately the Raiders don't seem ready to settle on one guy as their full time SS... Napoleon Harris was supposed to see increased playing time against Houston but it didn't happen. At this point its not been made clear if he was sore after last weeks game and the club backed off his work load or if it was some sort of coaching decision that limited his playing time. The best advice I can give at this point is to sit on Harris until he's names starter which shouldn't take long.    

Arizona Cardinals
Its official that Ifeanyi Ohalete has taken over the starting job at FS from Quentin Harris. Ohalete is a pretty solid veteran player who brings a good deal of fantasy potential to an already excellent situation. If your in need at the position I wouldn't wait too long to make a move for this guy... The Cardinals opened in a standard 4-3 scheme this week but played a great deal of that 5-2 that the opened with in week 2. James Darling returned to the lineup and for the second time this year led the club in tackles. He's not going to be a stud but the club has obviously given up on McKinnon as a full time player and Darling is playing on every down. He should make a solid #3 starter or excellent backup unless there is some drastic shakeup down the road. Another interesting note here, Karlos Dansby officially started this game but in the second half Darling and Ray Thompson were the linebackers nearly full time. Thompson led the clubs LB's in tackles last year and could end up making a decent backup in large leagues... Former 1st round pick Calvin Pace has registered sacks two weeks in a row now and could begin to garner additional playing time if he continues to improve.             

St. Louis Rams
Scan you leagues free agents just in case some impatient bone head cut Leonard Little. I couldn't believe he was available in 2 of my 6 IDP leagues this week. I don't think he is going to repeat last years numbers without Wistrom in the mix to keep blocking schemes honest but he is certainly not a guy to leave hanging on waivers... Adam Archuleta played a lot but didn't start against the Niners on Sunday due to a sore back and hamstring. Rich Coady actually got the start at SS with Aeneas starting at and playing all day at FS after manning the corner position in week 3. Archuleta will be listed as probable again for week 5 and will play but it could be a similar situation. He managed a 5-0-0 against SF but playing part time would obviously make an impact. Coady went 3-3-0, numbers that should have belonged to Archuleta. Garrett appears to be the new starting corner... Interesting note, Bryce Fisher has reclaimed the starting DE job opposite Little.    

Kansas City Chiefs
You would never have known from watching the Chiefs in week 4 that their D was among the worst in the league. 4 different linemen registered sacks despite the Ravens attempting just 17 passes in the game and Baltimore running backs mustered just 77 yards on the ground. While this is certainly a huge step in the right direction for the Chiefs, they still can't seem to come up with the big plays that were so instrumental to their success in '03. KC is in the bottom half of the league with just 6 takeaways to date. Eric Hicks had his best game thus far with a 4-0-1. This comes on the heels of speculation that Hicks could loose his starting job to John Browning once Vonnie Holliday is healthy. Sooner or later Hicks will realize that Holliday is never healthy but maybe he'll stay more motivated. Heading into the season I expected to see an improved pass rush from the Chiefs under the new DC. They managed only 5 sacks through the first 3 weeks but racked up 4 against Baltimore. Maybe we are seeing the beginning of a trend here. Hicks has proven in the past that he can get after the passer and Browning is playing well... The bye week will help the battered secondary to get healthy. Greg Wesley looked good on Monday but a little more rest on his sore hamstring won't hurt. Jerome Woods missed some time against Baltimore though I have so far not been able to find out why. He was replaced by Shaunard Harts.  

Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Maybe Derrick Brooks hasn't lost as much as may of us previously believed he had. Judging by his production to date, it looks like his fantasy status may have been held back over the past few season by playing on a very good team. Now that the Bucks obviously aren't all that good anymore, Brooks has again become a very good fantasy option. He's on pace for 116 solo tackles this season... Only 4 teams have fewer sacks than the Bucks through week 4 and 3 of those 4 have played just 3 games. Even a great player like Simeon Rice will struggle without help and the Bucks aren't giving him any. With just 6 tackles and 1 sack on the season Rice is off to by far his worst start ever (barring injury). While I hate to suggest anyone cut a talented player like Rice, he certainly belongs on the bench until/unless something gives here.    

Washington Redskins
The Skins will have to go one more week without LaVar Arrington who is doing some light work on his injured knee but isn't expected to play until week 6. Michael Barrow also remains out and the team is reportedly considering placing him on IR which would entrench Pierce as the starting MLB... Matt Bowen returned to action Sunday after missing most of the week 3 contest (and costing me a game) with a sore groin. He should be fine and obviously won't suffer from playing along side Sean Taylor who is now the starter at FS. Taylor put up the first decent production of his career (a 6-1-0) against the Browns on Sunday but you can bet it won't be his last.   

Minnesota Vikings
Minnesota will take the field in week 5 without starting MLB EJ Henderson who is out with a sprained knee. There was speculation that he might return after the teams bye week but the Henderson is not progressing so quickly. He is listed as out on the injury report and could end up missing a couple more weeks. If you need a solid contributor while Henderson sits look no further than Dontarrious Thomas who replaced Henderson when he went down and will get the start at MLB until Henderson returns... Chris Claiborne is questionable this week with a calf injury and will likely be replaced in the lineup by Raonall Smith. Smith has some potential but has struggled to stay healthy. At one time he was considered the heir to the WLB job. A title that now belongs to Thomas.      

New York Giants
Shaun Williams landed on IR this week mostly due to his injury but also because the Giants are so happy with the play of rookie Gibril Wilson that they didn't feel the need to try and bring Williams back in December. The Giants aren't as good as their record would suggest (especially on defense) and Wilson is likely to end up the teams leading tackler on the season... Don't give up on the Giants LB's Kevin Lewis or Barrett Green yet but they have been disappointing over the past couple of weeks so it may be time to start searching for a replacement. Neither of them have reached 5 solo tackles since week 1 and one more week of sub par production would be enough to land either of them on the waiver wire.    

Green Bay Packers
The Packers got a scare when Darren Sharper missed a few plays with a sore back on Sunday. It turns out the injury isn't serious and Sharper is listed as probable this week... Na'il Diggs made the strong point against the Giants that Nick Barnett is not the only Packer LB that belongs on a fantasy roster. One big week doesn't mean much but Diggs is likely to produce better than his first three weeks box score would suggest. He'll top the Packers box score 2-3 more times before the season is over... Don't get too excited about Aaron Kampman's big game against the Giants but put him on the watch list. The Packers really like his potential but he's been slow to progress. 

Carolina Panthers
I had a customer email me asking what had happened to Mike Minter this week. Minter owners will soon learn that this IS Mike Minter. He will save the day for you one week and then drop the ball completely the next. The worst part about it is that there is no rhyme or reason to his production peaks or valleys. This is why he doesn't usually rank very high in the weekly cheats. He's a good gamble as a 3rd starter on bye weeks or as a backup but you probably don't want to rely on him as an every week starter... 

That's a wrap for week 5.

Just Win Baby!

John

Site Map | Contact Us  | Login / Signup

©Copyright Footballguys.com 2003, All rights reserved.