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Eyes of the Guru - Week 6

Dallas Cowboys
Even the Tuna needs a few players to be successful and right now he's trying to hold his secondary together with bubble gum and bread ties. Top corner Terence Newman is healthy but the season ending injuries to Pete Hunter and Bruce Thornton leave the Cowboys with 4 rookies who were both drafted in the 7th round and recently added Tyrone Williams. Rookie Jacques Reeves got the start against New York but Williams is expected to displace him as soon as he's deemed to be in game condition... Dexter Coakley continues to start at WLB but is essentially sharing time with Bradie James which serves to virtually eliminate any value.   

New England Patriots
Ted Johnson is finally healthy and has replaced the 36 year old Roman Phifer as the starter at ILB. Johnson put up a respectable 5-2-0 in his first start of the season which is interesting but don't read much into it. Johnson has missed a lot of action with injuries in recent years and we already know the only defender with any consistency on this club is Harrison. Consider the fact that 22 players made an appearance in the Pats week 5 box score. Everyone has a job to do on this team which simply spreads the numbers out too far.

Jacksonville Jaguars
In dire need of generating a pass rush the Jaguars experimented Sunday with Marcus Stroud playing left end. It didn't work very well  as Jacksonville failed to land a single sack. Adding insult to injury San Diego hammered them for 176 yards on the ground with many of them coming right up the middle where Willie Blades was playing Stroud's DT position. No word at this point if the experiment will be dumped already or if they will continue to look at this option... Donovin Darius suffered an ankle injury late in Sunday's game but so far no news has been released on the severity of the injury or his status for week 6. Darius is unable to go look for Deke Cooper to get the call in his place even though Nick Sorensen is listed as the backup at SS.  

Detroit Lions
The Lions D had a strong showing against the Falcons in week 5 and is finally starting to garner a little respect. It helps a lot that they are finally starting to get some of their wounded back into action. The week 4 bye helped Kalimba Edwards to get healthy and it showed in his performance. Edwards didn't make the start but played extensively for the first time this year recording a serviceable 3-0-1 on the day. He was projected to be the starting left end going into this season and is the Lions best pass rusher when healthy. if he stays healthy it won't be long before he moves back into the lineup full time. With his slow start he's likely to be available in many if not most leagues and is certainly worthy of consideration as a free agent addition... As a rookie in '02 Shaun Rogers was an excellent fantasy option. Last season injuries and a weight problem kept his numbers way down but he seems to have shed both those issues and is quickly becoming a force both on the field and in the box scores. Rogers is currently on pace to go 52-16-14. While I doubt he will reach 14 sacks, double digits are certainly a possibility. He posted 54 solo stops as a rookie so the tackle numbers aren't a fluke. In general ends are your best DL fantasy options but there are always a few exceptions and Rogers looks like one of them... I didn't get to watch enough of this game to see what was going on at linebacker in week 5 but the box scores sure are interesting. For the first time (certainly not the last) rookie Teddy Lehman led the club in tackles with a solid 8-1-0. He started the game at the SLB position but I'm not so sure he didn't move around some during the game. Alex Lewis returned from his injury and also posted good numbers coming off the bench with 5 solo stops and a sack, while starting WLB James Davis only managed 3 tackles and and starting MLB Earl Holmes went just 1-0-0. Has there been a shakeup at LB in Detroit? Keep in mind that Lehman was drafted to play in the middle and only moved to strong side when Bailey went down and both Lewis and Davis were fighting through ankle injuries. Now that everyone but Bailey is back will Lehman move back to the middle? I would suggest that if he's available in your league you make the move now. If you wait until its confirmed there will be a lot of competition for his services.  

Denver Broncos
It's time to strongly consider picking up Kennoy Kennedy. 22-2-1 over the last 3 games is enough to get a guy noticed. Kennedy didn't start the first two games and played sparingly. In week three when his numbers jumped the club moved John Lynch to free safety and put Kennedy in the lineup at strong. Three straight solid games is pretty convincing evidence that it isn't a fluke.

San Francisco 49'ers
The season ending injury to Julian Peterson shakes up the Niners linebackers. When Peterson held out Derek Smith moved into his role with Jeff Ulbrich taking over Smith's MLB duties and Jamie Winborn getting into the lineup as the third LB. Smith is dinged up as well at this point with an ankle injury, leaving the club in a real scramble. Brandon Moore will likely start at OLB until Smith returns. The important part of this scenario is that Ulbrich will step into the most consistently productive role in the scheme and is likely to remain there the rest of the season. Smith is no Julian Peterson and will not match Peterson's production but Ulbrich is equal to the task he is being asked to perform. Scoop him up immediately if your thin at LB. Keep an eye on '02 third round pick Saleem Rasheed who is likely to get a look somewhere under the circumstances... Need a quick fix at DB? Rookie Shawntae Spencer is likely the Niners starting corner for the rest of the season with Mike Rumph out. Spencer went 8-1-0 in his first start and will continue to be targeted by offenses the rest of the season. The "rookie corner rule" applies here.        

Atlanta Falcons
Strong safety Bryan Scott had his lowest production of the season against the Lions in week 5 due to leaving the game late in the 3rd quarter with what is being called a "mild concussion". He will likely be listed as questionable when the injury report comes out but the club is optimistic that Scott will be able to go on Sunday... DE Brady Smith has been a major cog in the Falcons defensive machine with sacks in 4 of 5 games thus far. Smith was injured near the end of the Lions game and limped off the field. There has been no further news on his condition which is usually a good thing. Smith had been fighting a groin injury heading into week 4 so there is room for some speculation that he may have aggravated that injury. 

Buffalo Bills
After getting off to a very slow start in the pass rush the Bills made a lineup change against the Jets replacing Ryan Denney with Chris Kelsay and the dividends were immediate. Kelsay recorded his first sack of the year but more importantly Aaron Schobel got off the snide as well. Its too early to tell if this is going to have a lasting impact but Kelsay is a guy to keep an eye on and those of us sitting on Schobel can feel a little more at ease when we put him in the lineup. Keep in mind that Schobel started very slowly last season before coming on strong down the stretch. Take a look at your waiver wire and see if some impatient owner may have let him go already. 

Arizona Cardinals
With 14 sacks to date the Cardinals D is already over half way to last years total. This is a surprise in itself but the even bigger surprise is that last years first round pick Calvin Pace leads the club with 4 of them after doing virtually nothing as a rookie. Pace didn't play much in weeks 1-2 but began seeing a lot of time in passing situations by week three and has seen his snap total grow steadily since. His 3-1-2 against the Niners was by far his best production as a pro. Peppi Zellner recorded 2 sacks in his first start as a Cardinal but has faded away since. Don't be surprised to see Pace replace him in the starting lineup shortly. He should be on the pickup list this week for anyone in need and especially for dynasty owners... James Darling put the screws to a lot of people last week (myself included) when he was declared inactive despite being listed as probable all week including on the Friday report. Ronald McKinnon moved back into the lineup at MLB where Darling was set to be the starter. The other news here is the return of Ray Thompson to the WLB position. Thompson was the teams top tackler in the game. He's injury prone but generally produced decent numbers. The fact that the club has gone back to a traditional SLB/WLB alignment rather than a left/right bodes well for his production potential. He'll never be a stud but should provide good depth or maybe a solid #3 starter so long as he remains healthy. 

Cleveland Browns
Those of us who have Andra Davis finally got a little return on our investment in week 5 when he topped the Brown's box scores for the first time this season but its not Davis who is news worthy here. Kevin Bentley finished second to Davis with a 6-2-0 on the day despite not starting in the game. Free agent addition Warrick Holdman hasn't been very productive and was replaced by Bentley at WLB during the game. Thus far there has been no word on this being a permanent change or if Holdman might have been injured but it was obvious that Bentley was the better player on Sunday. The Brown WLB position accounted for a lot of production a year ago and if Bentley is now the starter there he may well be a worthy addition to your roster... Gerard Warren (chest) is expected to return to practice this week and may be cleared to play against Cincinnati this weekend. His return would be a huge boost for a Browns D that played well early but has fallen off the pace over the last 3 weeks largely due to several key injuries.  

Seattle Seahawks
Apparently the Seahawks have decided not to decide on who will play MLB. Orlando Huff continues to start but is sharing time with Niko Koutouvides almost equally. Dynasty owners should put their money on the rookie for the long term as its Huff's experience that is keeping him in the mix at the moment. As the season moves along he will slowly loose some of that advantage... The addition of Grant Wistrom has made Chike Okeafor a very happy man. With Wistrom drawing most of the double teams Okeafor is having the best season of his NFL career with 4 sacks already. Unfortunately for us fantasy geeks he's still lacking a bit in the tackle department but even that seems to be improving a bit. After going 3-2-1 in the first two games of the season Okeafor has gone 6-3-3 in the past two. Pick him up if your in need. 

New Orleans Saints
Saints WLB Derrick Rodgers has 22 solo tackles over the past 3 games and is beginning to be plucked off the waiver wire in some of my leagues. Let me remind you that he combined to go 5-2-0 in the first two games. Rodgers is 33 years old and has never in his entire career held even a little fantasy value. Don't reach for him and let someone go that has some potential or you'll almost certainly be burned... Last week I broke down and gave Tebucky Jones a little credit for his production through the first quarter of the season. He then proceeded to remind me why I have never thought much of him with a very mediocre 4-2-0 in week 5. He's had a couple of strong outings this season sandwiched in between 4 tackle games. Like Rodgers, Jones has been a career underachiever. He's in a golden situation but it looks like the lack of consistency is going to continue to make him a gamble at best in fantasy terms... Courtney Watson was inactive last week with a sore knee. He is expected to make a go if it in practice this week and the club is optimistic he will be able to play this weekend... Fred Thomas is likely to be bumped from the lineup in week 6 with Mike McKenzie (hamstring) returning to practice this week and expected to make his New Orleans debut on Sunday. Thomas is expected to take over the nickel back duties.       

San Diego Chargers
When the Chargers announced their intent to move to a 3-4 defensive scheme the initial reaction was that they didn't have the personnel to make such a move and that it would take them a while to "build" a defense. Apparently Schottenheimer isn't as senile as some of us originally thought. Upon further review this has turned out to be an excellent move. When it comes to generating a pass rush the Bolts were lacking big time talent along their DL. The 3-4 requires big tough bodies up front but relies more on the OLB's to provide the big plays. Having watched Steve Foley for a few years in Cincinnati I never dreamed he would be a good fit as an OLB in a 3-4 but he has proven to be. Like any other outside backer in a 3-4, Foley's tackle production is average at best at just over 4 solo's a game on average but he is making a lot of plays. Foley has 2.5 sacks in the past 2 games and 3 takeaways over the first 5. Depending on the scoring system, Foley could have a lot of value moving foreword.

Houston Texans
The Texans were down to their #3 SS on sunday when Glenn Earl was a last minute scratch despite being listed as probable with an ankle injury all week. All Simmons did was go 9-3-0 in the game but don't count on his keeping the job. The coaching staff believes Earl is the future of the position for them and he will be back in the lineup as soon as he's able. The big numbers do however cast an optimistic spin on Earls potential in the position. Eric Brown could return to the lineup at some point but is still at least a few week away with a sprained knee. The moral of this story, unless your in a dynasty league stay away from this situation until it gains some stability, and if you are in a dynasty league look hard at Earl.     

Cincinnati Bengals
The last time Cincinnati played Cleveland Lee Suggs ran for 186 yards. You can bet the Bengals D is using that for motivation this week. Cleveland's offense is sputtering (last in the league) but you can throw out all the stats when it comes to this rivalry game. Caleb Miller has had another week off to rest his bad ankle and should be 100% for this one. If your sitting on Brian Simmons start him and if your looking for a sleeper pick up Miller who will be the teams starter at MLB the rest of the season barring injury.

Pittsburgh Steelers
There was a time not long ago when Chad Scott was a solid fantasy option despite playing the corner position. Over the past couple of seasons his consistency has waned but this season he's showing signs of returning to form. Scott has 6 solo tackles in each of the last two games. Not exactly impressive but still solid numbers. The emergence of Deshea Townsend as the clubs top cover corner is undoubtedly a contributing factor. Townsend has come on strong which is going to have opponents looking for another weakness and right now Scott is considered by many as the teams weakest link... Don't be concerned about the lapse in production from Troy Polamalu in week 5. Simply put his poor game was a direct result of the Browns inept offense which rushed just 14 times for 57 yards on the day excluding Garcia's scrambles. Polamalu will be just fine and should continue to be an every week starter if you have him.  

Oakland Raiders
Interestingly the Raiders opened week 5 in a 4-3 defense. Even more interestingly was the fact that Napoleon Harris started the game as the right outside linebacker while DeLawrence Grant started on the left. No word if this was a disciplinary situation that kept Travian Smith out of the starting lineup or what the deal was. It didn't last long though as Smith was in the game the rest of the way and led the club in tackles on the day. The big mystery here is Napoleon Harris. Once considered the centerpiece of the defense, he's played a significant role in just 1 of the 3 games in which he's been active since returning from the knee sprain. Possibly he is still having some problems with the knee but he hasn't been on the injury report for 2 weeks now. Another possibility is that the coaching staff likes what they have been seeing from Danny Clark at MLB and just don't want to pull him. Harris is the Raiders most talented linebacker so I can't see his exile continuing much longer unless he is still fighting the knee, but then we have all seen some strange decisions from the NFL coaching ranks in the past so anything is possible.     

St. Louis Rams
Adam Archuleta didn't start again in week 5 as the club tries to limit his work and allow his nagging injuries to heal but he ended up playing full time anyway when Aeneas Williams suffered a pinched nerve in his shoulder/neck and was forced out of the game. According to Williams he will be able to go in week 6 but those who saw how gingerly he was moving after the game aren't as optimistic. Look for news later in the week  on this one and look into picking up Rick Coady as a short term fill in if your in need. Coady is seeing a lot of action between the two positions and continues to be productive... Tommy Polley was benched late in the preseason but there are conflicting reports as to why. He was dinged a little but the coaching staff called it a demotion just the same. If it was intended as a wake up call for Polley he seems to have gotten the message. Since returning to the lineup he has played very well once again looking like the guy who was so solid as a rookie a couple of years back. Polley has 16 solo tackles and a pair of sacks over his 3 starts and is looking like a guy we should be considering as a free agent pickup. Some of his success however may be coming due to Robert Thomas suffering through an ankle injury that has slowed him for a few weeks. Polley has taken on Thomas's passing down duties.     

Indianapolis Colts
I can't help but to shake my head and smile at all the people who are jumping all over Cato June after his 9-2-0 against the Raiders on Sunday. Yes he had a good game, I'll give him credit for that but people should look at why before jumping on the bandwagon. June's strength is speed and pass coverage so this turned out to be a perfect match up for him. Oakland ran the ball just 13 times including the 1 yard plunge by Fargas at the goal line. June spent his day playing a spy technique on Amous Zereoue who had 7 receptions and supplied June with the majority of his tackles. In short it was more of a fluke than the beginning of some trend... What has become a trend at this point is Jim Nelson replacing Rob Morris at MLB. Morris is still seeing running down duties but anything that resembles a passing situation and he's replaced by Nelson. Morris had a couple of nice games early on but don't count on much from him the rest of the way.     

Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Don't read too much into the big game (9-0-0) turned in by Jeff Gooch on Sunday. He replaced Shelton Quarles at MLB early in the game when Quarles suffered a strained quad. Quarles is expected to be fine and should be listed as probable on the injury report. Gooch however may have turned a few heads. One big weakness that opponents have exploited is the Bucks soft middle where the speedy but not very physical Quarles has struggled when people have run right at him. If the club continues to struggle there we could see a lot more of Gooch in the future. The Bucks completely under estimated the impact of loosing Nate Webster... Week 5 saw the Bucks once again fail to record a sack. Only the Jaguars have managed fewer than the Bucks 6 sacks on the year and they don't have a Simeon Rice on their roster. Sooner or later Tampa Bay has to do something to create some pressure. They have to realize that even Rice can't do it all by himself. If your a Rice owner I don't know what advise to give you at this point but I would certainly be looking for someone to pick up. Greg Spires continues to start opposite Rice but has been very average. Meanwhile former #1 pick Dewayne White continues to pick splinters out of his butt from sitting on the bench. Sooner or later they have to give the kid a shot, it certainly can't get any worse. 

Washington Redskins
Strong safety Matt Bowen suffered a knee injury on Sunday that has landed him on IR. Ryan Clark replaced him in the game and went on to lead the club with 8 solo tackles before leaving late in the contest with a sprained ankle and being replaced by Todd Franz. Andre Lott was inactive for the game as he continues to recover from a hamstring injury. This whole situation leaves the Skins hamstrung at the SS position. They signed street free agent Pat Dennis to fill the void on the roster. If/when he is healthy Lott is expected to take over the position on a full time basis but he may still be a week away. Clark's ankle sprain is considered mild and he could be available this week. The bottom line here is that this has been a very productive position thus far and once its settled who will be the guy, he should have good value. If you need to get a jump on your competition I suggest you go ahead and pick up Lott... In a sideline interview Sunday night LaVar Arrington fell short of saying he would return for week 6 but the club remains optimistic that he will at least dress and contribute this week. At this point even if he does play I wouldn't be in a big hurry to get him in the lineup. History suggests that Arrington doesn't produce well unless he's 100% and the chances of his being that healthy this week are slim at best. Let him get a week or two under his belt before returning him to your lineup... The news isn't a lot better for Michael Barrow who is still improving but is not nearly ready to play yet. Rumors have it that is he doesn't show significant progress within the next couple of weeks he may be placed on IR. That decision may be made easy with the quality play the club continues to get from Antonio Pierce.

Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings continue to scramble with injuries at LB. Dontarrious Thomas made the start at MLB for the injured E.J. Henderson in last week but he didn't make it out of the game without being dinged himself. Henderson is supposed to test his sprained knee in practice this week and the club remains optimistic that he will go. Look for news later in the week on this mess.       

New York Giants
The Giants defense has been one of the seasons big surprises. Most of us wrote them off when we looked at the roster but they have been playing well above expectations. Last year their linebackers were gold and the questionable (on paper) talent of the unit suggested going in that this years groups would be similarly successful. Obviously that isn't going to happen. Its probably time to dump Barrett Green if your still sitting on him. I'd be a little less of a hurry to let go of Kevin Lewis just yet but he hasn't done anything special since week one so if there is a better option out there make the move.

Carolina Panthers
After being one of the fantasy games most dependable DL options over the past 3 years Mike Rucker has mysteriously vanished from the box scores in 2 of the Panthers 4 games this season and has yet to record a sack. In his defense Rucker has been getting a ton of attention from offensive blocking schemes thus far as coordinators seem to have finally realized that he and not Peppers is the rock that the Panthers defense is built on. When Rucker tossed a goose egg in week 2 I mentioned that he very rarely has back to back poor outings and he managed 6 solo stops in his next game. I'll mention that again this week and add that the Panther face an Eagles club that has done a good job of protecting their QB. He's too good a player to dump and I have to believe that he'll break out at some point but we should probably shelve him until we see it happen. Carolina is currently tied with 4 other clubs that have produced just 6 sacks on the season, just one ahead of last place Jacksonville. one statistic to look at here is the fact that only the Bengals are allowing more yards per game on the ground than the Panthers. Its hard to get sacks when the opponent doesn't need to pass... I hate to speak too early and jinx a guy but Dan Morgan has now started 4 straight games without an injury for the first time in his career. A good sign that he may finally be over the injury bug. There has never been any doubt about his ability so those who took a chance on him need to keep rubbing that rabbit's foot.  

Just Win Baby!

John

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