Eyes of the Guru - Week 6
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Posted 10/13 by John Norton, Exclusive to Footballguys.com
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Dallas Cowboys
Even the Tuna needs a few players to be
successful and right now he's trying to hold his secondary together with bubble
gum and bread ties. Top corner Terence Newman is healthy but the season ending
injuries to Pete Hunter and Bruce Thornton leave the Cowboys with 4 rookies who
were both drafted in the 7th round and recently added Tyrone Williams. Rookie
Jacques Reeves got the start against New York but Williams is expected to
displace him as soon as he's deemed to be in game condition... Dexter Coakley
continues to start at WLB but is essentially sharing time with Bradie James
which serves to virtually eliminate any value.
New England Patriots
Ted Johnson is finally healthy and has replaced the 36 year
old Roman Phifer as the starter at ILB. Johnson put up a respectable 5-2-0 in
his first start of the season which is interesting but don't read much into it.
Johnson has missed a lot of action with injuries in recent years and we already
know the only defender with any consistency on this club is Harrison. Consider
the fact that 22 players made an appearance in the Pats week 5 box score.
Everyone has a job to do on this team which simply spreads the numbers out too
far.
Jacksonville Jaguars
In dire need of generating a pass rush
the Jaguars experimented Sunday with Marcus Stroud playing left end. It didn't
work very well as Jacksonville failed to land a single sack. Adding insult
to injury San Diego hammered them for 176 yards on the ground with many of them
coming right up the middle where Willie Blades was playing Stroud's DT position.
No word at this point if the experiment will be dumped already or if they will
continue to look at this option... Donovin Darius suffered an ankle injury late
in Sunday's game but so far no news has been released on the severity of the
injury or his status for week 6. Darius is unable to go look for Deke Cooper to
get the call in his place even though Nick Sorensen is listed as the backup at
SS.
Detroit Lions
The Lions D had a strong showing against the Falcons in week
5 and is finally starting to garner a little respect. It helps a lot that they
are finally starting to get some of their wounded back into action. The week 4
bye helped Kalimba Edwards to get healthy and it showed in his performance.
Edwards didn't make the start but played extensively for the first time this
year recording a serviceable 3-0-1 on the day. He was projected to be the
starting left end going into this season and is the Lions best pass rusher when
healthy. if he stays healthy it won't be long before he moves back into the
lineup full time. With his slow start he's likely to be available in many if not
most leagues and is certainly worthy of consideration as a free agent
addition... As a rookie in '02 Shaun Rogers was an excellent fantasy option.
Last season injuries and a weight problem kept his numbers way down but he seems
to have shed both those issues and is quickly becoming a force both on the field
and in the box scores. Rogers is currently on pace to go 52-16-14. While I doubt
he will reach 14 sacks, double digits are certainly a possibility. He posted 54
solo stops as a rookie so the tackle numbers aren't a fluke. In general ends are
your best DL fantasy options but there are always a few exceptions and Rogers
looks like one of them... I didn't get to watch enough of this game to see what
was going on at linebacker in week 5 but the box scores sure are interesting.
For the first time (certainly not the last) rookie Teddy Lehman led the club in
tackles with a solid 8-1-0. He started the game at the SLB position but I'm not
so sure he didn't move around some during the game. Alex Lewis returned from his
injury and also posted good numbers coming off the bench with 5 solo stops and a
sack, while starting WLB James Davis only managed 3 tackles and and starting MLB
Earl Holmes went just 1-0-0. Has there been a shakeup at LB in Detroit? Keep in
mind that Lehman was drafted to play in the middle and only moved to strong side
when Bailey went down and both Lewis and Davis were fighting through ankle
injuries. Now that everyone but Bailey is back will Lehman move back to the
middle? I would suggest that if he's available in your league you make the move
now. If you wait until its confirmed there will be a lot of competition for his
services.
Denver Broncos
It's time to strongly consider picking up Kennoy Kennedy.
22-2-1 over the last 3 games is enough to get a guy noticed. Kennedy didn't
start the first two games and played sparingly. In week three when his numbers
jumped the club moved John Lynch to free safety and put Kennedy in the lineup at
strong. Three straight solid games is pretty convincing evidence that it isn't a
fluke.
San Francisco 49'ers
The season ending injury to Julian Peterson shakes up the
Niners linebackers. When Peterson held out Derek Smith moved into his role with
Jeff Ulbrich taking over Smith's MLB duties and Jamie Winborn getting into the
lineup as the third LB. Smith is dinged up as well at this point with an ankle
injury, leaving the club in a real scramble. Brandon Moore will likely start at
OLB until Smith returns. The important part of this scenario is that Ulbrich
will step into the most consistently productive role in the scheme and is likely
to remain there the rest of the season. Smith is no Julian Peterson and will not
match Peterson's production but Ulbrich is equal to the task he is being asked
to perform. Scoop him up immediately if your thin at LB. Keep an eye on '02
third round pick Saleem Rasheed who is likely to get a look somewhere under the
circumstances... Need a quick fix at DB? Rookie Shawntae Spencer is likely the
Niners starting corner for the rest of the season with Mike Rumph out. Spencer
went 8-1-0 in his first start and will continue to be targeted by offenses the
rest of the season. The "rookie corner rule" applies here.
Atlanta Falcons
Strong safety Bryan Scott had his lowest production of the
season against the Lions in week 5 due to leaving the game late in the 3rd
quarter with what is being called a "mild concussion". He will likely be listed
as questionable when the injury report comes out but the club is optimistic that
Scott will be able to go on Sunday... DE Brady Smith has been a major cog in the
Falcons defensive machine with sacks in 4 of 5 games thus far. Smith was injured
near the end of the Lions game and limped off the field. There has been no
further news on his condition which is usually a good thing. Smith had been
fighting a groin injury heading into week 4 so there is room for some
speculation that he may have aggravated that injury.
Buffalo Bills
After getting off to a very slow start in the pass rush the
Bills made a lineup change against the Jets replacing Ryan Denney with Chris
Kelsay and the dividends were immediate. Kelsay recorded his first sack of the
year but more importantly Aaron Schobel got off the snide as well. Its too early
to tell if this is going to have a lasting impact but Kelsay is a guy to keep an
eye on and those of us sitting on Schobel can feel a little more at ease when we
put him in the lineup. Keep in mind that Schobel started very slowly last season
before coming on strong down the stretch. Take a look at your waiver wire and
see if some impatient owner may have let him go already.
Arizona Cardinals
With 14 sacks to date the Cardinals D is already over half
way to last years total. This is a surprise in itself but the even bigger
surprise is that last years first round pick Calvin Pace leads the club with 4
of them after doing virtually nothing as a rookie. Pace didn't play much in
weeks 1-2 but began seeing a lot of time in passing situations by week three and
has seen his snap total grow steadily since. His 3-1-2 against the Niners was by
far his best production as a pro. Peppi Zellner recorded 2 sacks in his first
start as a Cardinal but has faded away since. Don't be surprised to see Pace
replace him in the starting lineup shortly. He should be on the pickup list this
week for anyone in need and especially for dynasty owners... James Darling put
the screws to a lot of people last week (myself included) when he was declared
inactive despite being listed as probable all week including on the Friday
report. Ronald McKinnon moved back into the lineup at MLB where Darling was set
to be the starter. The other news here is the return of Ray Thompson to the WLB
position. Thompson was the teams top tackler in the game. He's injury prone but
generally produced decent numbers. The fact that the club has gone back to a
traditional SLB/WLB alignment rather than a left/right bodes well for his
production potential. He'll never be a stud but should provide good depth or
maybe a solid #3 starter so long as he remains healthy.
Cleveland Browns
Those of us who have Andra Davis finally got a
little return on our investment in week 5 when he topped the Brown's box scores
for the first time this season but its not Davis who is news worthy here. Kevin
Bentley finished second to Davis with a 6-2-0 on the day despite not starting in
the game. Free agent addition Warrick Holdman hasn't been very productive and
was replaced by Bentley at WLB during the game. Thus far there has been no word
on this being a permanent change or if Holdman might have been injured but it
was obvious that Bentley was the better player on Sunday. The Brown WLB position
accounted for a lot of production a year ago and if Bentley is now the starter
there he may well be a worthy addition to your roster... Gerard Warren (chest)
is expected to return to practice this week and may be cleared to play against
Cincinnati this weekend. His return would be a huge boost for a Browns D that
played well early but has fallen off the pace over the last 3 weeks largely due
to several key injuries.
Seattle Seahawks
Apparently the Seahawks have decided not to decide on who
will play MLB. Orlando Huff continues to start but is sharing time with Niko
Koutouvides almost equally. Dynasty owners should put their money on the rookie
for the long term as its Huff's experience that is keeping him in the mix at the
moment. As the season moves along he will slowly loose some of that advantage...
The addition of Grant Wistrom has made Chike Okeafor a very happy man. With
Wistrom drawing most of the double teams Okeafor is having the best season of
his NFL career with 4 sacks already. Unfortunately for us fantasy geeks he's
still lacking a bit in the tackle department but even that seems to be improving
a bit. After going 3-2-1 in the first two games of the season Okeafor has gone
6-3-3 in the past two. Pick him up if your in need.
New Orleans Saints
Saints WLB Derrick Rodgers has 22 solo
tackles over the past 3 games and is beginning to be plucked off the waiver wire
in some of my leagues. Let me remind you that he combined to go 5-2-0 in the
first two games. Rodgers is 33 years old and has never in his entire career held
even a little fantasy value. Don't reach for him and let someone go that has
some potential or you'll almost certainly be burned... Last week I broke down
and gave Tebucky Jones a little credit for his production through the first
quarter of the season. He then proceeded to remind me why I have never thought
much of him with a very mediocre 4-2-0 in week 5. He's had a couple of strong
outings this season sandwiched in between 4 tackle games. Like Rodgers, Jones
has been a career underachiever. He's in a golden situation but it looks like
the lack of consistency is going to continue to make him a gamble at best in
fantasy terms... Courtney Watson was inactive last week with a sore knee. He is
expected to make a go if it in practice this week and the club is optimistic he
will be able to play this weekend... Fred Thomas is likely to be bumped from the
lineup in week 6 with Mike McKenzie (hamstring) returning to practice this week
and expected to make his New Orleans debut on Sunday. Thomas is expected to take
over the nickel back duties.
San Diego Chargers
When the Chargers announced their intent to move to a 3-4
defensive scheme the initial reaction was that they didn't have the personnel to
make such a move and that it would take them a while to "build" a defense.
Apparently Schottenheimer isn't as senile as some of us originally thought. Upon
further review this has turned out to be an excellent move. When it comes to
generating a pass rush the Bolts were lacking big time talent along their DL.
The 3-4 requires big tough bodies up front but relies more on the OLB's to
provide the big plays. Having watched Steve Foley for a few years in Cincinnati
I never dreamed he would be a good fit as an OLB in a 3-4 but he has proven to
be. Like any other outside backer in a 3-4, Foley's tackle production is average
at best at just over 4 solo's a game on average but he is making a lot of plays.
Foley has 2.5 sacks in the past 2 games and 3 takeaways over the first 5.
Depending on the scoring system, Foley could have a lot of value moving
foreword.
Houston Texans
The Texans were down to their #3 SS on sunday when Glenn Earl
was a last minute scratch despite being listed as probable with an ankle injury
all week. All Simmons did was go 9-3-0 in the game but don't count on his
keeping the job. The coaching staff believes Earl is the future of the position
for them and he will be back in the lineup as soon as he's able. The big numbers
do however cast an optimistic spin on Earls potential in the position. Eric
Brown could return to the lineup at some point but is still at least a few week
away with a sprained knee. The moral of this story, unless your in a dynasty
league stay away from this situation until it gains some stability, and if you
are in a dynasty league look hard at Earl.
Cincinnati Bengals
The last time Cincinnati played Cleveland Lee Suggs ran for
186 yards. You can bet the Bengals D is using that for motivation this week.
Cleveland's offense is sputtering (last in the league) but you can throw out all
the stats when it comes to this rivalry game. Caleb Miller has had another week
off to rest his bad ankle and should be 100% for this one. If your sitting on
Brian Simmons start him and if your looking for a sleeper pick up Miller who
will be the teams starter at MLB the rest of the season barring injury.
Pittsburgh Steelers
There was a time not long ago when Chad Scott was a solid
fantasy option despite playing the corner position. Over the past couple of
seasons his consistency has waned
but this season he's showing signs of returning to form. Scott has 6 solo
tackles in each of the last two games. Not exactly impressive but still solid
numbers. The emergence of Deshea Townsend as the clubs top cover corner is
undoubtedly a contributing factor. Townsend has come on strong which is going to
have opponents looking for another weakness and right now Scott is considered by
many as the teams weakest link... Don't be concerned about the lapse in
production from Troy Polamalu in week 5. Simply put his poor game was a direct
result of the Browns inept offense which rushed just 14 times for 57 yards on
the day excluding Garcia's scrambles. Polamalu will be just fine and should
continue to be an every week starter if you have him.
Oakland Raiders
Interestingly the Raiders opened week 5 in a 4-3 defense.
Even more interestingly was the fact that Napoleon Harris started the game as
the right outside linebacker while DeLawrence Grant started on the left. No word
if this was a disciplinary situation that kept Travian Smith out of the starting
lineup or what the deal was. It didn't last long though as Smith was in the game
the rest of the way and led the club in tackles on the day. The big mystery here
is Napoleon Harris. Once considered the centerpiece of the defense, he's played
a significant role in just 1 of the 3 games in which he's been active since
returning from the knee sprain. Possibly he is still having some problems with
the knee but he hasn't been on the injury report for 2 weeks now. Another
possibility is that the coaching staff likes what they have been seeing from
Danny Clark at MLB and just don't want to pull him. Harris is the Raiders most
talented linebacker so I can't see his exile continuing much longer unless he is
still fighting the knee, but then we have all seen some strange decisions from
the NFL coaching ranks in the past so anything is possible.
St. Louis Rams
Adam Archuleta didn't start again in week 5 as the club tries
to limit his work and allow his nagging injuries to heal but he ended up playing
full time anyway when Aeneas Williams suffered a pinched nerve in his
shoulder/neck and was forced out of the game. According to Williams he will be
able to go in week 6 but those who saw how gingerly he was moving after the game
aren't as optimistic. Look for news later in the week on this one and look
into picking up Rick Coady as a short term fill in if your in need. Coady is
seeing a lot of action between the two positions and continues to be
productive... Tommy Polley was benched late in the preseason but there are
conflicting reports as to why. He was dinged a little but the coaching staff
called it a demotion just the same. If it was intended as a wake up call for
Polley he seems to have gotten the message. Since returning to the lineup he has
played very well once again looking like the guy who was so solid as a rookie a
couple of years back. Polley has 16 solo tackles and a pair of sacks over his 3
starts and is looking like a guy we should be considering as a free agent
pickup. Some of his success however may be coming due to Robert Thomas suffering
through an ankle injury that has slowed him for a few weeks. Polley has taken on
Thomas's passing down duties.
Indianapolis Colts
I can't help but to shake my head and smile at all
the people who are jumping all over Cato June after his 9-2-0 against the
Raiders on Sunday. Yes he had a good game, I'll give him credit for that but
people should look at why before jumping on the bandwagon. June's strength is
speed and pass coverage so this turned out to be a perfect match up for him.
Oakland ran the ball just 13 times including the 1 yard plunge by Fargas at the
goal line. June spent his day playing a spy technique on Amous Zereoue who had 7
receptions and supplied June with the majority of his tackles. In short it was
more of a fluke than the beginning of some trend... What has become a trend at
this point is Jim Nelson replacing Rob Morris at MLB. Morris is still seeing
running down duties but anything that resembles a passing situation and he's
replaced by Nelson. Morris had a couple of nice games early on but don't count
on much from him the rest of the way.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Don't read too much into the big game (9-0-0)
turned in by Jeff Gooch on Sunday. He replaced Shelton Quarles at MLB early in
the game when Quarles suffered a strained quad. Quarles is expected to be fine
and should be listed as probable on the injury report. Gooch however may have
turned a few heads. One big weakness that opponents have exploited is the Bucks
soft middle where the speedy but not very physical Quarles has struggled when
people have run right at him. If the club continues to struggle there we could
see a lot more of Gooch in the future. The Bucks completely under estimated the
impact of loosing Nate Webster... Week 5 saw the Bucks once again fail to record
a sack. Only the Jaguars have managed fewer than the Bucks 6 sacks on the year
and they don't have a Simeon Rice on their roster. Sooner or later Tampa Bay has
to do something to create some pressure. They have to realize that even Rice
can't do it all by himself. If your a Rice owner I don't know what advise to
give you at this point but I would certainly be looking for someone to pick up.
Greg Spires continues to start opposite Rice but has been very average.
Meanwhile former #1 pick Dewayne White continues to pick splinters out of his
butt from sitting on the bench. Sooner or later they have to give the kid a
shot, it certainly can't get any worse.
Washington Redskins
Strong safety Matt Bowen suffered a knee injury on Sunday
that has landed him on IR. Ryan Clark replaced him in the game and went on to
lead the club with 8 solo tackles before leaving late in the contest with a
sprained ankle and being replaced by Todd Franz. Andre Lott was inactive for the
game as he continues to recover from a hamstring injury. This whole situation
leaves the Skins hamstrung at the SS position. They signed street free agent Pat
Dennis to fill the void on the roster. If/when he is healthy Lott is expected to
take over the position on a full time basis but he may still be a week away.
Clark's ankle sprain is considered mild and he could be available this week. The
bottom line here is that this has been a very productive position thus far and
once its settled who will be the guy, he should have good value. If you need to
get a jump on your competition I suggest you go ahead and pick up Lott... In a
sideline interview Sunday night LaVar Arrington fell short of saying he would
return for week 6 but the club remains optimistic that he will at least dress
and contribute this week. At this point even if he does play I wouldn't be in a
big hurry to get him in the lineup. History suggests that Arrington doesn't
produce well unless he's 100% and the chances of his being that healthy this
week are slim at best. Let him get a week or two under his belt before returning
him to your lineup... The news isn't a lot better for Michael Barrow who is
still improving but is not nearly ready to play yet. Rumors have it that is he
doesn't show significant progress within the next couple of weeks he may be
placed on IR. That decision may be made easy with the quality play the club
continues to get from Antonio Pierce.
Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings continue to scramble with injuries at LB.
Dontarrious Thomas made the start at MLB for the injured E.J. Henderson in last
week but he didn't make it out of the game without being dinged himself.
Henderson is supposed to test his sprained knee in practice this week and the
club remains optimistic that he will go. Look for news later in the week on this
mess.
New York Giants
The Giants defense has been one of the seasons big surprises.
Most of us wrote them off when we looked at the roster but they have been
playing well above expectations. Last year their linebackers were gold and the
questionable (on paper) talent of the unit suggested going in that this years
groups would be similarly successful. Obviously that isn't going to happen. Its
probably time to dump Barrett Green if your still sitting on him. I'd be a
little less of a hurry to let go of Kevin Lewis just yet but he hasn't done
anything special since week one so if there is a better option out there make
the move.
Carolina Panthers
After being one of the fantasy games most dependable DL
options over the past 3 years Mike Rucker has mysteriously vanished from the box
scores in 2 of the Panthers 4 games this season and has yet to record a sack. In
his defense Rucker has been getting a ton of attention from offensive blocking
schemes thus far as coordinators seem to have finally realized that he and not
Peppers is the rock that the Panthers defense is built on. When Rucker tossed a
goose egg in week 2 I mentioned that he very rarely has back to back poor
outings and he managed 6 solo stops in his next game. I'll mention that again
this week and add that the Panther face an Eagles club that has done a good job
of protecting their QB. He's too good a player to dump and I have to believe
that he'll break out at some point but we should probably shelve him until we
see it happen. Carolina is currently tied with 4 other clubs that have produced
just 6 sacks on the season, just one ahead of last place Jacksonville. one
statistic to look at here is the fact that only the Bengals are allowing more
yards per game on the ground than the Panthers. Its hard to get sacks when the
opponent doesn't need to pass... I hate to speak too early and jinx a guy but
Dan Morgan has now started 4 straight games without an injury for the first time
in his career. A good sign that he may finally be over the injury bug. There has
never been any doubt about his ability so those who took a chance on him need to
keep rubbing that rabbit's foot.
Just Win Baby!
John
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