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Eyes of the Guru - Week 7

Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Shelton Quarles was inactive for the Monday night game due to the injury that took him out early in week 5. While the injury is not thought to be all that serious, the Bucks have a bye in week 8 so if he's still hurting at all don't be surprised if he sits again this week. The other factor to consider here is that Jeff Gooch has done an exceptional job replacing Quarles at MLB. Gooch brings a more physical presence and there is little doubt the team has played much better over the past two games, particularly against the run. We could see a lot of Gooch over the second half of the season... The Bucks pass rush finally got going against St. Louis but don't get overly excited about it. The Rams are one of the worst in the league at keeping their QB clean while only 5 clubs have recorded fewer sacks than Tampa Bay even counting their 4 against St. Louis. Simeon Rice finally got back in the sack column but he is still going to struggle to reach double digits this year.

St. Louis Rams
The time has come to make a move on Tommy Polley. He is officially the teams SLB but has become a serious fantasy contributor since regaining his starting job in week 3. In the past 4 games he's put up a mark of 24-2-3 with a sack in 3 of those 4 games. Robert Thomas has missed a couple of games with his injury and isn't likely to be at 100% for a few more weeks at least. While he is gimpy Polley will continue seeing action in passing situations and if he continues to play like a mad man as he has recently, it will be tough for the coaches to make changes in their passing down packages. At this point Polley has become their best pass rush threat... The lack of a pass rush from the rest of the DL is allowing clubs to continue putting the clamps on Leonard Little. While he is still going to have a big game here and there, Little's consistency is going to be seriously lacking and like Simeon Rice he is going to struggle to make double digit sacks this season.   

New England Patriots
Anyone sitting on IDP's from the Patriots is all too well aware of the fact that these guys just can't be counted on for any consistency. The Patriots game plans change so drastically from week to week that its impossible to project who is going to go off when. The only exception to this general rule is Rodney Harrison with an honorable mention to Mike Vrabel who is trying desperately to emerge as a decent fantasy option. 

Indianapolis Colts
Indy was off last week so there isn't a lot of news coming out but there is a guy I wanted to mention last week and ran out of time. If your looking for DL help take a shot on DE Robert Mathis. After the first three games the Colts were in desperate need of improvement on defense so the coaching staff began looking at creative ways to generate a pass rush. One idea that seems to have struck gold was to convert Mathis from OLB to rush end where he is making an immediate impact. Mathis is a little short of 240 pounds so he isn't likely to become an every down end anytime soon but he has certainly improved the pass rush with his 4 sacks over their past 4 games. Mathis saw his playing time increase drastically in weeks 4-5 and should continue to see a lot of action as opponents find themselves trying to keep pace with Indy's high powered offense. Mathis has proven better than expected even against the run and has gone 10-1-3 in the last two games. I suggest you take a shot at him as a backup DL with a lot of potential... The bye week has allowed the Colts to get much healthier, particularly at safety where Mike Doss should be close to 100% for week 7. After missing the first 5 games with a hamstring injury Doss is going to be available in a lot of leagues. The Colts D has shown improvement but Doss still has a ton of potential. 

San Francisco 49'ers
The rash of injuries at LB have basically forced the Niners to move away from using a 3-4 scheme at all. They were lucky to field 3 starting linebackers against the Jets as Jeff Ulbrich gutted it out and played despite being very sick late last week and right through Sunday. Ulbrich gave way to Jamie Winborn and Brandon Moore on passing downs which won't happen once he's healthy. Frisco has a bye this week and expects to have Derek Smith back when they return to action in week 8. Smith will move into Julian Peterson's role in the defense with Ulbrich taking over the MLB position and Winborn filling the WLB role. Its tough to tell at this point who if anyone will be the standout here. Winborn is obviously capable of having some big games (11-2-0 in week 6) but he's done this in the past only to vanish in the following weeks. Ulbrich remains the safest bet of the group to provide consistent production. I liken this years Niners to last years Giants who were injury riddled on D during the second half of the season which caused some average linebackers (Barrow and Dhani Jones) to put up stellar numbers down the stretch. We could see a similar effect on the Niners LB's.  

New York Jets
The loss of Sam Cowart to a knee injury early on may or may not be a determining factor in the teams diminishing use of a 3-4 alignment. They have not completely moved away from it but have gone from nearly a 50/50 split in week one to using a 4-3 about 75% of the snaps in week 6. No one is happier about this than Shaun Ellis who is coming off a career high 12 sacks in '03 but landed his first sack of '04 against the Niners on Sunday. Once Cowart returns the team may begin to creep back toward the 3-4 but it looks at this point like Cowart's return could still be a few weeks away. With his slow start Ellis is going to be available in a lot of leagues. You may want to tuck him away as a backup for a while. If the Jets continue down the current path he could put up around 8 sacks over the second half of the season... Jon McGraw was supposed to be the teams answer at FS but has seen his playing time cut  

Atlanta Falcons
The injury to Chris Draft is allowing both us and the Falcons to get a glimpse at rookie LB Demorrio Williams and so far the kid has looked pretty good. Jamie Duncan actually got the start MLB but was replaced during the game by Williams. Dynasty owners might want to tuck this kid away on a taxi squad or if you have room on your roster. He's likely to be starting by next season if not sooner.

Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jaguars experiment of moving Marcus Stroud to end was a short one. He returned to his tackle position in week 6 but that didn't mean the coaching staff was done experimenting all together. The next plan seemed to work much better though as backup OLB Greg Favors became next in line to try out at DE. The result was a season high 6 sacks for Jacksonville (3 by LB's, 3 by DL) who had just 5 all year heading into the contest. Favors even contributed one of the sacks from his new starting position at right end. While 1 game certainly doesn't make a trend it sure does create room for optimism. This is a situation we need to keep an eye on.

Denver Broncos
Those of you who picked up Kenoy Kennedy last week shouldn't freak out and cut him already after his dismal 2-0-0 against Oakland. While I will be the first to admit I'm not sold on him, Kennedy had little chance to produce in Sunday's game. Oakland ran the ball just 15 times for 34 yards on the day and completed only 15 passes. That makes just 30 solo tackles to be awarded and most of those went to guys in the front 7. Hang in there and give him one more look.

Minnesota Vikings
Injuries continue to plague Chris Claiborne who started Sunday's game but made a quick exit when he aggravated his calf injury. Raonall Smith once again filled in for him admirably and ended the day as the teams second leading tackler despite missing a series or two in the second half after getting his bell rung. When E.J. Henderson returns to action Dontarrious Thomas will move back to WLB sending Smith to the bench but if this guy ever gets the job full time he will be very productive... Henderson's knee injury is improving but not as quickly at the club had expected. He's likely to miss at least one more game and possibly a couple more after that. If your in a dynasty league you have to find a way to keep him on your roster but if your not it may be time to think about cutting your losses. It could be week 10 or even later before he returns to full speed. Meanwhile Thomas remains the best option of the group as he has played well and will remain in the lineup the rest of the season.

Philadelphia Eagles
Derrick Burgess remains the starter at end opposite Jevon Kearse but over the past couple of weeks Jerome McDougle has seen increased action. McDougle is considered the superior pass rusher and its expected that if he can finally stay healthy he will eventually supplant Burgess from the starting job. McDougle still has a lot to learn though and will have to become more physical at the point of attack. When he was drafted some in the Eagles organization called him "a young Hugh Douglas". This is a situation worth monitoring... Speaking of Douglas, he seems to be seeing fewer and fewer snaps as the season wears on and he hasn't recorded a sack since his first game back in Eagle green... Mark Simoneau missed most of Sunday's game with a sprained foot and is in danger of missing at least the week 7 game. Jeremiah Trotter replaced him against Carolina and would get the start against Cleveland if Simoneau is unable to go.

Tennessee Titans
Need help at DB? In the past there was no reason to look at the Titans but this year that has changed. Lamont Thompson and Tank Williams are quickly becoming very serviceable options. Injuries at LB and DL have the front seven lacking talent and the safeties are spending a lot of time in the hot tub after games. Since taking over the starting job 2 games ago all Thompson has done is go 13-2-0 with 2 interceptions. Lance Schulter is a long way from returning to action and will find it tough to regain his starting job if Thompson continues to play at this level. Williams has been just as impressive with a sack, pick and fumble recovery all in the past two games as well as solid tackle numbers. Williams only posted 3 solo stops against Houston but he was forced out of the game early in the second half with a bruised knee. He's expected to be fine and play in week 7... MLB Brad Kassell is emerging as a solid fantasy backup. He's started 3 games since returning from injury and has recorded at least 6 solo stops in two of them with the other being the blowout win at Green Bay when the Packers rolled over on offense.

Cincinnati Bengals
The most asked question of the week for IDP owners is what the hell happened to Madieu Williams this week? I have been digging for news on this but there is nothing to be found. Initially I thought there may have been some disciplinary issue or maybe he was hurt lat in the week but apparently neither are the case. Williams was active and did play sparingly in the game against Cleveland. apparently he has been demoted for some reason in favor of Kevin Kaesveharn. Obviously the lineup change did nothing to help the team so the question now is will Williams remain on the bench? I have serious doubts about that as I believe him to be the teams most talented safety tough he still needs experience. Obviously we all need to sit him on the bench until we see what happens here but I wouldn't cut him just yet. Whom ever ends up starting at safety for the Bengals is going to have some fantasy value at this point. If we learn that Williams is indeed out as a starter don't hesitate to move on Kaesveharn... Landon Johnson actually got the start at MLB for Cincy in week 6 but didn't last long as he got hammered by the fullback on a trap block early in the second quarter and was unable to return. Rookie Caleb Miller took over for Johnson and played fairly well considering his ankle is still a little weak. There is no word yet on who will get the call in week 7 but who ever it is will be busy. I believe Miller will get the call but I wouldn't be willing to bet on it.

Carolina Panthers
If someone had tried to tell me before the season started that in week 7 Mike Rucker would still be looking for his first sack, I would have said they were dreaming, but that is the case. Rucker left the week 6 contest early in the first quarter with an irregular heartbeat that has since been determined not to be a serious issue but his lacking production certainly is serious for those of us who picked him as one to the games best fantasy options. The problem here is much bigger than Rucker. The Panthers defense has basically stunk thus far in general. They are dead last in the league with only 7 sacks on the year and only the Niners have fewer takeaways. There are those who would argue with me on this but the way I see it its the lacking secondary that is largely to blame. Lets face it, Chris Gamble is a rookie, Artrell Hawkins wasn't good enough to be a Bengal and Ricky Manning is more mouth than anything. Good cover corners help force coverage sacks and a good pass rush helps to create big plays in the secondary. So far this team has neither. I'm sure Rucker has found his way to everyone's bench by now at the least and it may become necessary to look for a replacement. I wouldn't be in a huge hurry to cut him though. The guy is a great talent and could break out at any time... A note of interest concerning the Panthers scheme. Against the Eagles they opened in a 4-2-5 alignment for the second straight week with Will Witherspoon and Dan Morgan as the linebackers. They stayed in this set nearly the entire game against Philly. One would have to assume that this is largely due to the loss of Mark Fields who was inactive for the game but hopes to return to practice this week... FS Colin Branch suffered a broken thumb early in Sundays game but is expected to play with it in a cast in week 7.  

Chicago Bears
Adewale Ogunleye is expected to miss at least a couple of weeks with an ankle injury he suffered against the Skins on Sunday. This means Alex Brown and Michael Haynes will be working full time at the ends. The Bears next two opponents are Tampa Bay and San Francisco who have allowed 18 and 19 sacks respectively to date. If your looking for a sleeper starter one of these guys might just fit the bill. If nothing else we are going to get a good look at Haynes in a full time role. He's been a disappointment thus far as both the Bears and I expected much more from him this year.

Cleveland Browns
For the second week in a row Kevin Bentley has come off the bench to lead the Browns in tackles. Warrick Holdman continues to be listed as the starter but Bentley is logging the vast majority of snaps at the WLB position. Its still an unstable situation but it looks like Bentley is on the verge of taking over the job full time. Its a very productive position so if you need to get the jump on your competition you may want to move on Bentley now... Another player on the verge of unseating a starter is safety Chris Crocker who has put up 13 solo tackles and a pick over the last three weeks while sharing time with Earl Little at FS. Crocker has seen his playing time increase steadily and has clearly outplayed little. This is another of those situation where you can sit back and watch for another week or two and probably get away with it but if you in a league with a bunch of sharks you may want to move early. 

Dallas Cowboys
Terrence Newman has gone large in two of the Cowboys last three games but don't over react. Keep in mind that in the other three games this year he's combined for just 5 tackles. This is nothing unusual for corners who's production is often directly linked to that weeks offensive game plan. In week 6 Newman matched up with Hines Ward all day and Ward made 9 catches. The next guy he matches up with may not be as successful... Tyrone Williams joined the club recently and played a significant role in Sunday's game despite his short time with the team. He may not be the official starter yet but he is clearly the #2 corner and should assume that role in short order... La'Roi Glover is quietly making a fantasy comeback this year. Once the leagues sack leader while with the Saints, Glover's production has been mediocre during his stint with the Cowboys but he's now recorded a sack in 3 straight games and its time to start looking at his as a fantasy option. 

Houston Texans
This weeks bye will go a long way toward helping safeties Eric Brown and Glenn Earl get completely healthy but the quality play of Jason Simmons in relief brings up some question as to who will be the teams starting SS when they return to action in week 8. Simmons put up a team high 9 solo stops in week 5 and was well on his way to another big game when his brutal hit on Chris Brown knocked them both out of action in week 6. Simmons suffered a mild concussion on the hit but is expected to be available when the team returns from their bye. Brown was expected to play in Sunday's game but was a last minute scratch. speculation is that Brown is in his last year with the team even though he was given a new contract last year. Rumors are that the team is so impressed with Earl that they consider him their future starter. Certainly a situation worth watching... Marcus Coleman was moved from corner to FS this year both to extend his career and to give the Texans more big plays from the position. So far that plan has worked very well as Coleman has stopped 2 opponents drives with interceptions in the end zone. His fantasy value isn't great but its worth note that Coleman has recorded 5 or more tackles in 4 of 6 starts so far to go along with the picks. He's on pace for 70 solo tackles. If you look at the Texans remaining schedule you will want to consider picking up either Coleman or who ever starts at SS in week 8. The schedule is loaded with excellent match up including the Jags twice, Broncos, Colts twice, Packers, Titans and Jets. Ouch!  

Detroit Lions
We at least we know now that Teddy Lehman's quality production in week 5 came because MLB Earl Holmes missed much of the game with an injury. Unfortunately for Lehman owners Holmes made a full recovery and was back in the lineup for week 6 pushing Lehman back into fantasy purgatory at SLB. There is a little bit of good news for Lehman owners though, he is playing MLB in the nickel and dime packages so he should continue to put up good enough numbers to deserve a roster spot.

New Orleans Saints
It's never a good sign for a team when the first three guys in the box score are all DB's and the Saints/Vikings box score is no exception. Despite an excellent pass rush the Saints continue to struggle defensively, especially at linebacker. Derrick Rodgers sat out week 6 and was replaced by Sedrick Hodge who did an adequate job. Courtney Watson returned to the lineup but didn't seem to play with the same reckless abandon he had displayed prior to the knee problem. Its safe to say that he wasn't 100% against Minnesota. The silver lining in this cloud is that Watson made it through the game without re-injuring the knee and should be much better with another week to recover... Tebucky Jones continues to put up big numbers for the first time in his career. While I am still not convinced that he is all that impressive a player, the Saints are hurting at LB even with a healthy Watson and the secondary safeties are going to keep making a lot of tackles... There is a lot of speculation that Fred Thomas is destined to be bumped from the starting lineup once Mike McKenzie is completely healthy and acclimated to the scheme. If your still starting him you need to be planning for the future. At this point McKenzie is being eased into the scheme by starting out as the nickel back but he is the teams best cover corner at this point so it's only a matter of time before he starts.   

Kansas City Chiefs
After getting off to a very slow start DE Eric Hicks is coming on. He has gone 7-0-2 in the last two games and seems to have rediscovered a sense of urgency that he hasn't displayed in several years. Hicks may have drawn some motivation from the rumors that he was on the verge of loosing his starting job to John Browning. It may be a little early to move on him but Hicks has made his way onto the radar screen.

Seattle Seahawks
The injury news out of Seattle on Grant Wistrom isn't good. He is expected to miss 4-6 weeks with a broken leg that he suffered in the second half of Sundays game. Antonio Cochran will fill in for Wistrom in the starting lineup but the duties will likely be shared between Cochran, Brandon Mitchell and maybe even Rocky Bernard on occasion. In short there isn't much potential here for a replacement to shine... Anthony Simmons is fighting through a shoulder injury but his sub par production can't be blamed on the injury that just happened in week 5. Simmons numbers were down last year and seem to have fallen even further this season. He's yet to put up over 6 solo tackles in a game nor has he produced any of the impact plays that he's known for. It doesn't seem that Simmons is being used much differently than he has in the past but there must be some subtle difference that is holding his numbers down. The bottom line however is that there is no reason to expect at this point that he is suddenly going to take off. It's probably time to start searching for a replacement... One thing that might be taking some bite out of Simmons production is the quality play at the safety positions. At the outset of the season it was widely expected that Michael Boulware would have claimed the starting SS position by now but opening day starter Terreal Bierria simply refuses to go quietly. The third year pro has done an excellent job and continues to play so well that the coaches just can't sit him down. Boulware is sharing time with him and seeing significant action as an extra DB on passing downs. He has been impressive in his own right with 3 interceptions in somewhat limited playing time. At this point it seem a real possibility that the two may end up sharing the position in some fashion for the remainder of the season.      

Oakland Raiders
For the first time since coming to the Raiders Marques Anderson played SS for the entire game against Denver without sharing time. The result was a career high 14 solo tackles and an interception to boot. It looks as though the Raiders staff and Anderson have finally reached a comfort zone with one another. Don't expect any more 14 tackle days from him but he is very capable of solid production on a consistent basis. If your looking for DB help he should be at or near the top of your list this week... Week 6 saw the Raiders open and stay in a basic 4-3 alignment. The injury to Travian Smith undoubtedly figured into this decision. Smith is likely to be out a while longer so don't be surprised if Oakland makes the move to a 4-3 base defense a permanent one... One move that comes as somewhat of a surprise/disappointment is the clubs use of Napoleon Harris. This is a good news/bad news situation for owners who have been waiting on Harris all season. The good news is that he's finally healthy and starting, and that he's playing on passing downs. The bad news is that he's lining up on the left side which makes him the strong side backer most of the time and will limit his production. The passing down action should be enough of a boost to make him a decent option as depth or maybe a #3 starter on your squad but he probably won't live up to our pre-season box score expectations.

Green Bay Packers
Rookie corner Ahmed Carroll made the start Sunday against the Lions despite Hawthorne being listed as probable for the game. There has been no official word from the team but it seems that Carroll has won the starting job on a full time basis. Hawthorne served as the nickel corner Sunday and will likely continue in that role. Carroll posted 7 solo stops in his starting debut and comes under the "rookie corner rule". He'll likely continue to be productive the rest of the season.

Best of luck to you all in week 7 and.. Just Win Baby!

John

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