Eyes of the Guru - Week 7
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Posted 10/20 by John Norton, Exclusive to Footballguys.com
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Shelton Quarles
was inactive for the Monday night game due to the
injury that took him out early in week 5. While the injury is not thought to be
all that serious, the Bucks have a bye in week 8 so if he's still hurting at all
don't be surprised if he sits again this week. The other factor to consider here
is that Jeff Gooch has done an exceptional job replacing Quarles at MLB. Gooch
brings a more physical presence and there is little doubt the team has played
much better over the past two games, particularly against the run. We could see
a lot of Gooch over the second half of the season... The Bucks pass rush finally
got going against St. Louis but don't get overly excited about it. The Rams are
one of the worst in the league at keeping their QB clean while only 5 clubs have
recorded fewer sacks than Tampa Bay even counting their 4 against St. Louis.
Simeon Rice finally got back in the sack column but he is still going to
struggle to reach double digits this year.
St. Louis Rams
The time has come to make a move on Tommy Polley. He is
officially the teams SLB but has become a serious fantasy contributor since
regaining his starting job in week 3. In the past 4 games he's put up a mark of
24-2-3 with a sack in 3 of those 4 games. Robert Thomas has missed a couple of
games with his injury and isn't likely to be at 100% for a few more weeks at
least. While he is gimpy Polley will continue seeing action in passing
situations and if he continues to play like a mad man as he has recently, it
will be tough for the coaches to make changes in their passing down packages. At
this point Polley has become their best pass rush threat... The lack of a pass
rush from the rest of the DL is allowing clubs to continue putting the clamps on
Leonard Little. While he is still going to have a big game here and there,
Little's consistency is going to be seriously lacking and like Simeon Rice he is
going to struggle to make double digit sacks this season.
New England Patriots
Anyone sitting on IDP's from the
Patriots is all too well aware of the fact that these guys just can't be counted
on for any consistency. The Patriots game plans change so drastically from week
to week that its impossible to project who is going to go off when. The only
exception to this general rule is Rodney Harrison with an honorable mention to
Mike Vrabel who is trying desperately to emerge as a decent fantasy option.
Indianapolis Colts
Indy was off last week so there isn't a
lot of news coming out but there is a guy I wanted to mention last week and ran
out of time. If your looking for DL help take a shot on DE Robert Mathis. After
the first three games the Colts were in desperate need of improvement on defense
so the coaching staff began looking at creative ways to generate a pass rush.
One idea that seems to have struck gold was to convert Mathis from OLB to rush
end where he is making an immediate impact. Mathis is a little short of 240
pounds so he isn't likely to become an every down end anytime soon but he has
certainly improved the pass rush with his 4 sacks over their past 4 games.
Mathis saw his playing time increase drastically in weeks 4-5 and should
continue to see a lot of action as opponents find themselves trying to keep pace
with Indy's high powered offense. Mathis has proven better than expected even
against the run and has gone 10-1-3 in the last two games. I suggest you take a
shot at him as a backup DL with a lot of potential... The bye week has allowed
the Colts to get much healthier, particularly at safety where Mike Doss should
be close to 100% for week 7. After missing the first 5 games with a hamstring
injury Doss is going to be available in a lot of leagues. The Colts D has shown
improvement but Doss still has a ton of potential.
San Francisco 49'ers
The rash of injuries at LB have
basically forced the Niners to move away from using a 3-4 scheme at all. They
were lucky to field 3 starting linebackers against the Jets as Jeff Ulbrich
gutted it out and played despite being very sick late last week and right
through Sunday. Ulbrich gave way to Jamie Winborn and Brandon Moore on passing
downs which won't happen once he's healthy. Frisco has a bye this week and
expects to have Derek Smith back when they return to action in week 8. Smith
will move into Julian Peterson's role in the defense with Ulbrich taking over
the MLB position and Winborn filling the WLB role. Its tough to tell at this
point who if anyone will be the standout here. Winborn is obviously capable of
having some big games (11-2-0 in week 6) but he's done this in the past only to
vanish in the following weeks. Ulbrich remains the safest bet of the group to
provide consistent production. I liken this years Niners to last years Giants
who were injury riddled on D during the second half of the season which caused
some average linebackers (Barrow and Dhani Jones) to put up stellar numbers down
the stretch. We could see a similar effect on the Niners LB's.
New York Jets
The loss of Sam Cowart to a knee injury early on may or may
not be a determining factor in the teams diminishing use of a 3-4 alignment.
They have not completely moved away from it but have gone from nearly a 50/50
split in week one to using a 4-3 about 75% of the snaps in week 6. No one is
happier about this than Shaun Ellis who is coming off a career high 12 sacks in
'03 but landed his first sack of '04 against the Niners on Sunday. Once Cowart
returns the team may begin to creep back toward the 3-4 but it looks at this
point like Cowart's return could still be a few weeks away. With his slow start
Ellis is going to be available in a lot of leagues. You may want to tuck him
away as a backup for a while. If the Jets continue down the current path he
could put up around 8 sacks over the second half of the season... Jon McGraw was
supposed to be the teams answer at FS but has seen his playing time cut
Atlanta Falcons
The injury to Chris Draft is allowing both us and the Falcons
to get a glimpse at rookie LB Demorrio Williams and so far the kid has looked
pretty good. Jamie Duncan actually got the start MLB but was replaced during the
game by Williams. Dynasty owners might want to tuck this kid away on a taxi
squad or if you have room on your roster. He's likely to be starting by next
season if not sooner.
Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jaguars experiment of moving Marcus Stroud to end was a
short one. He returned to his tackle position in week 6 but that didn't mean the
coaching staff was done experimenting all together. The next plan seemed to work
much better though as backup OLB Greg Favors became next in line to try out at
DE. The result was a season high 6 sacks for Jacksonville (3 by LB's, 3 by DL)
who had just 5 all year heading into the contest. Favors even contributed one of
the sacks from his new starting position at right end. While 1 game certainly
doesn't make a trend it sure does create room for optimism. This is a situation
we need to keep an eye on.
Denver Broncos
Those of you who picked up Kenoy Kennedy last week shouldn't
freak out and cut him already after his dismal 2-0-0 against Oakland. While I
will be the first to admit I'm not sold on him, Kennedy had little chance to
produce in Sunday's game. Oakland ran the ball just 15 times for 34 yards on the
day and completed only 15 passes. That makes just 30 solo tackles to be awarded
and most of those went to guys in the front 7. Hang in there and give him one
more look.
Minnesota Vikings
Injuries continue to plague Chris Claiborne who started
Sunday's game but made a quick exit when he aggravated his calf injury. Raonall
Smith once again filled in for him admirably and ended the day as the teams
second leading tackler despite missing a series or two in the second half after
getting his bell rung. When E.J. Henderson returns to action Dontarrious Thomas
will move back to WLB sending Smith to the bench but if this guy ever gets the
job full time he will be very productive... Henderson's knee injury is improving
but not as quickly at the club had expected. He's likely to miss at least one
more game and possibly a couple more after that. If your in a dynasty league you
have to find a way to keep him on your roster but if your not it may be time to
think about cutting your losses. It could be week 10 or even later before he
returns to full speed. Meanwhile Thomas remains the best option of the group as
he has played well and will remain in the lineup the rest of the season.
Philadelphia Eagles
Derrick Burgess remains the starter at end opposite Jevon
Kearse but over the past couple of weeks Jerome McDougle has seen increased
action. McDougle is considered the superior pass rusher and its expected that if
he can finally stay healthy he will eventually supplant
Burgess from the starting job. McDougle still has a lot to learn though and will
have to become more physical at the point of attack. When he was drafted some in
the Eagles organization called him "a young Hugh Douglas". This is a situation
worth monitoring... Speaking of Douglas, he seems to be seeing fewer and fewer
snaps as the season wears on and he hasn't recorded a sack since his first game
back in Eagle green... Mark Simoneau missed most of Sunday's game with a
sprained foot and is in danger of missing at least the week 7 game. Jeremiah
Trotter replaced him against Carolina and would get the start against Cleveland
if Simoneau is unable to go.
Tennessee Titans
Need help at DB? In the past there was no reason to look at
the Titans but this year that has changed. Lamont Thompson and Tank Williams are
quickly becoming very serviceable options. Injuries at LB and DL have the front
seven lacking talent and the safeties are spending a lot of time in the hot tub
after games. Since taking over the starting job 2 games ago all Thompson has
done is go 13-2-0 with 2 interceptions. Lance Schulter is a long way from
returning to action and will find it tough to regain his starting job if
Thompson continues to play at this level. Williams has been just as impressive
with a sack, pick and fumble recovery all in the past two games as well as solid
tackle numbers. Williams only posted 3 solo stops against Houston but he was
forced out of the game early in the second half with a bruised knee. He's
expected to be fine and play in week 7... MLB Brad Kassell is emerging as a
solid fantasy backup. He's started 3 games since returning from injury and has
recorded at least 6 solo stops in two of them with the other being the blowout
win at Green Bay when the Packers rolled over on offense.
Cincinnati Bengals
The most asked question of the week for IDP owners is what
the hell happened to Madieu Williams this week? I have been digging for news on
this but there is nothing to be found. Initially I thought there may have been
some disciplinary issue or maybe he was hurt lat in the week but apparently
neither are the case. Williams was active and did play sparingly in the game
against Cleveland. apparently he has been demoted for some reason in favor of
Kevin Kaesveharn. Obviously the lineup change did nothing to help the team so
the question now is will Williams remain on the bench? I have serious doubts
about that as I believe him to be the teams most talented safety tough he still
needs experience. Obviously we all need to sit him on the bench until we see
what happens here but I wouldn't cut him just yet. Whom ever ends up starting at
safety for the Bengals is going to have some fantasy value at this point. If we
learn that Williams is indeed out as a starter don't hesitate to move on
Kaesveharn... Landon Johnson actually got the start at MLB for Cincy in week 6
but didn't last long as he got hammered by the fullback on a trap block early in
the second quarter and was unable to return. Rookie Caleb Miller took over for
Johnson and played fairly well considering his ankle is still a little weak.
There is no word yet on who will get the call in week 7 but who ever it is will
be busy. I believe Miller will get the call but I wouldn't be willing to bet on
it.
Carolina Panthers
If someone had tried to tell me before
the season started that in week 7 Mike Rucker would still be looking for his
first sack, I would have said they were dreaming, but that is the case. Rucker
left the week 6 contest early in the first quarter with an irregular heartbeat
that has since been determined not to be a serious issue but his lacking
production certainly is serious for those of us who picked him as one to the
games best fantasy options. The problem here is much bigger than Rucker. The
Panthers defense has basically stunk thus far in general. They are dead last in
the league with only 7 sacks on the year and only the Niners have fewer
takeaways. There are those who would argue with me on this but the way I see it
its the lacking secondary that is largely to blame. Lets face it, Chris Gamble
is a rookie, Artrell Hawkins wasn't good enough to be a Bengal and Ricky Manning
is more mouth than anything. Good cover corners help force coverage sacks and a
good pass rush helps to create big plays in the secondary. So far this team has
neither. I'm sure Rucker has found his way to everyone's bench by now at the
least and it may become necessary to look for a replacement. I wouldn't be in a
huge hurry to cut him though. The guy is a great talent and could break out at
any time... A note of interest concerning the Panthers scheme. Against the
Eagles they opened in a 4-2-5 alignment for the second straight week with Will
Witherspoon and Dan Morgan as the linebackers. They stayed in this set nearly
the entire game against Philly. One would have to assume that this is largely
due to the loss of Mark Fields who was inactive for the game but hopes to return
to practice this week... FS Colin Branch suffered a broken thumb early in
Sundays game but is expected to play with it in a cast in week 7.
Chicago Bears
Adewale Ogunleye is expected to miss at least a couple of
weeks with an ankle injury he suffered against the Skins on Sunday. This means
Alex Brown and Michael Haynes will be working full time at the ends. The Bears
next two opponents are Tampa Bay and San Francisco who have allowed 18 and 19
sacks respectively to date. If your looking for a sleeper starter one of these
guys might just fit the bill. If nothing else we are going to get a good look at
Haynes in a full time role. He's been a disappointment thus far as both the
Bears and I expected much more from him this year.
Cleveland Browns
For the second week in a row Kevin Bentley has come off the
bench to lead the Browns in tackles. Warrick Holdman continues to be listed as
the starter but Bentley is logging the vast majority of snaps at the WLB
position. Its still an unstable situation but it looks like Bentley is on the
verge of taking over the job full time. Its a very productive position so if you
need to get the jump on your competition you may want to move on Bentley now...
Another player on the verge of unseating a starter is safety Chris Crocker who
has put up 13 solo tackles and a pick over the last three weeks while sharing
time with Earl Little at FS. Crocker has seen his playing time increase steadily
and has clearly outplayed little. This is another of those situation where you
can sit back and watch for another week or two and probably get away with it but
if you in a league with a bunch of sharks you may want to move early.
Dallas Cowboys
Terrence Newman has gone large in two of the Cowboys last
three games but don't over react. Keep in mind that in the other three games
this year he's combined for just 5 tackles. This is nothing unusual for corners
who's production is often directly linked to that weeks offensive game plan. In
week 6 Newman matched up with Hines Ward all day and Ward made 9 catches. The
next guy he matches up with may not be as successful... Tyrone Williams joined
the club recently and played a significant role in Sunday's game despite his
short time with the team. He may not be the official starter yet but he is
clearly the #2 corner and should assume that role in short order... La'Roi
Glover is quietly making a fantasy comeback this year. Once the leagues sack
leader while with the Saints, Glover's production has been mediocre during his
stint with the Cowboys but he's now recorded a sack in 3 straight games and its
time to start looking at his as a fantasy option.
Houston Texans
This weeks bye will go a long way toward helping safeties
Eric Brown and Glenn Earl get completely healthy but the quality play of Jason
Simmons in relief brings up some question as to who will be the teams starting
SS when they return to action in week 8. Simmons put up a team high 9 solo stops
in week 5 and was well on his way to another big game when his brutal hit on
Chris Brown knocked them both out of action in week 6. Simmons suffered a mild
concussion on the hit but is expected to be available when the team returns from
their bye. Brown was expected to play in Sunday's game but was a last minute
scratch. speculation is that Brown is in his last year with the team even though
he was given a new contract last year. Rumors are that the team is so impressed
with Earl that they consider him their future starter. Certainly a situation
worth watching... Marcus Coleman was moved from corner to FS this year both to
extend his career and to give the Texans more big plays from the position. So
far that plan has worked very well as Coleman has stopped 2 opponents drives
with interceptions in the end zone. His fantasy value isn't great but its worth
note that Coleman has recorded 5 or more tackles in 4 of 6 starts so far to go
along with the picks. He's on pace for 70 solo tackles. If you look at the
Texans remaining schedule you will want to consider picking up either Coleman or
who ever starts at SS in week 8. The schedule is loaded with excellent match up
including the Jags twice, Broncos, Colts twice, Packers, Titans and Jets. Ouch!
Detroit Lions
We at least we know now that Teddy Lehman's quality
production in week 5 came because MLB Earl Holmes missed much of the game with
an injury. Unfortunately for Lehman owners Holmes made a full recovery and was
back in the lineup for week 6 pushing Lehman back into fantasy purgatory at SLB.
There is a little bit of good news for Lehman owners though, he is playing MLB
in the nickel and dime packages so he should continue to put up good enough
numbers to deserve a roster spot.
New Orleans Saints
It's never a good sign for a team when
the first three guys in the box score are all DB's and the Saints/Vikings box
score is no exception. Despite an excellent pass rush the Saints continue to
struggle defensively, especially at linebacker. Derrick Rodgers sat out week 6
and was replaced by Sedrick Hodge who did an adequate job. Courtney Watson
returned to the lineup but didn't seem to play with the same reckless abandon he
had displayed prior to the knee problem. Its safe to say that he wasn't 100%
against Minnesota. The silver lining in this cloud is that Watson made it
through the game without re-injuring the knee and should be much better with
another week to recover... Tebucky Jones continues to put up big numbers for the
first time in his career. While I am still not convinced that he is all that
impressive a player, the Saints are hurting at LB even with a healthy Watson and
the secondary safeties are going to keep making a lot of tackles... There is a
lot of speculation that Fred Thomas is destined to be bumped from the starting
lineup once Mike McKenzie is completely healthy and acclimated to the scheme. If
your still starting him you need to be planning for the future. At this point
McKenzie is being eased into the scheme by starting out as the nickel back but
he is the teams best cover corner at this point so it's only a matter of time
before he starts.
Kansas City Chiefs
After getting off to a very slow start DE Eric
Hicks is coming on. He has gone 7-0-2 in the last two games and seems to have
rediscovered a sense of urgency that he hasn't displayed in several years. Hicks
may have drawn some motivation from the rumors that he was on the verge of
loosing his starting job to John Browning. It may be a little early to move on
him but Hicks has made his way onto the radar screen.
Seattle Seahawks
The injury news out of Seattle on Grant Wistrom isn't good.
He is expected to miss 4-6 weeks with a broken leg that he suffered in the
second half of Sundays game. Antonio Cochran will fill in for Wistrom in the
starting lineup but the duties will likely be shared between Cochran, Brandon
Mitchell and maybe even Rocky Bernard on occasion. In short there isn't much
potential here for a replacement to shine... Anthony Simmons is fighting through
a shoulder injury but his sub par production can't be blamed on the injury that
just happened in week 5. Simmons numbers were down last year and seem to have
fallen even further this season. He's yet to put up over 6 solo tackles in a
game nor has he produced any of the impact plays that he's known for. It doesn't
seem that Simmons is being used much differently than he has in the past but
there must be some subtle difference that is holding his numbers down. The
bottom line however is that there is no reason to expect at this point that he
is suddenly going to take off. It's probably time to start searching for a
replacement... One thing that might be taking some bite out of Simmons
production is the quality play at the safety positions. At the outset of the
season it was widely expected that Michael Boulware would have claimed the
starting SS position by now but opening day starter Terreal Bierria simply
refuses to go quietly. The third year pro has done an excellent job and
continues to play so well that the coaches just can't sit him down. Boulware is
sharing time with him and seeing significant action as an extra DB on passing
downs. He has been impressive in his own right with 3 interceptions in somewhat
limited playing time. At this point it seem a real possibility that the two may
end up sharing the position in some fashion for the remainder of the season.
Oakland Raiders
For the first time since coming to the Raiders Marques
Anderson played SS for the entire game against Denver without sharing time. The
result was a career high 14 solo tackles and an interception to boot. It looks
as though the Raiders staff and Anderson have finally reached a comfort zone
with one another. Don't expect any more 14 tackle days from him but he is very
capable of solid production on a consistent basis. If your looking for DB help
he should be at or near the top of your list this week... Week 6 saw the Raiders
open and stay in a basic 4-3 alignment. The injury to Travian Smith undoubtedly
figured into this decision. Smith is likely to be out a while longer so don't be
surprised if Oakland makes the move to a 4-3 base defense a permanent one... One
move that comes as somewhat of a surprise/disappointment is the clubs use of
Napoleon Harris. This is a good news/bad news situation for owners who have been
waiting on Harris all season. The good news is that he's finally healthy and
starting, and that he's playing on passing downs. The bad news is that he's
lining up on the left side which makes him the strong side backer most of the
time and will limit his production. The passing down action should be enough of
a boost to make him a decent option as depth or maybe a #3 starter on your squad
but he probably won't live up to our pre-season box score expectations.
Green Bay Packers
Rookie corner Ahmed Carroll made the start Sunday against the
Lions despite Hawthorne being listed as probable for the game. There has been no
official word from the team but it seems that Carroll has won the starting job
on a full time basis. Hawthorne served as the nickel corner Sunday and will
likely continue in that role. Carroll posted 7 solo stops in his starting debut
and comes under the "rookie corner rule". He'll likely continue to be productive
the rest of the season.
Best of luck to you all in week 7 and.. Just Win Baby!
John
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