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Eyes of the Guru - Week 9

San Francisco 49'ers
A few weeks back when Julian Peterson went down I was all over picking up Jeff Ulbrich based on the fact that Derek Smith played in Peterson's position during his hold out. Ulbrich played in the very productive MLB position at that time and returned there for a couple of weeks when Smith was dinged as well. Apparently the Niners coaching staff wasn't happy with that arrangement and have shuffled the positions again. Ulbrich is now playing Peterson's OLB position with Smith back in the middle and Jamie Winborn handling Ulbrich's old WLB position. What this does in essence is to ruin Ulbrich's value completely as he is not talented enough to make plays at OLB. It also makes both Smith and Winborn prime candidates to finish the year strong. The Niners D has been hammered by injuries at all 3 levels and offenses are going to keep them on the field a lot down the stretch, which means a huge number of opportunities for Smith and Winborn. Winborn is a smallish linebacker who depends on speed and quickness so its understandable why the coaching staff wants him at WLB where he can use his skills. If either of these guys is still available in your league don't hesitate to move on them... The club hopes to get Andre Carter back in the next couple of weeks. He is set to begin practicing on a limited basis this week. This would be great news considering the team just lost starting end Brandon Whiting for the season with a knee injury... All the injuries and offensive struggles also point toward a strong finish for Tony Parrish who's stock is on the rise after his string of strong outings. Parrish has at least 5 solo stops in 5 straight games with a mark of 31-9-0 over that stretch.  

Chicago Bears
While the Bears D has played well in general this season there is concern about the lack of pass rush from the DE positions. Michael Haynes has been particularly disappointing posting just one sack on the season and that coming in week 1. With Ogunleye out the past couple of games Haynes hasn't been able to step up and neither has Alex Brown who also has just 1 sack to his credit. Fortunately Ogunleye is expected back possibly as soon as this Sunday. Meanwhile the coaching staff has turned to Brian Urlacher to help pick up the slack.  

Denver Broncos
Kenoy Kennedy bounced back nicely after a poor outing in week 7 but the big news out of Denver is the fractured tailbone suffered by John Lynch on Sunday. He will miss at least a couple of weeks and likely more with the injury and will be replaced by former starter Nick Ferguson. Kennedy seems to be the only DB with any consistent value here and not contending with Lynch could give him a little boost. The schedule also looks good for Kennedy as 6 of the last 8 games on the schedule are against teams with strong offenses/running games including the Chargers, Chiefs, Titans and Colts starting in week 13. 

Carolina Panthers
Just when we were starting to think Dan Morgan may have finally turned the corner in his battle with the injury bug, he suffers a concussion. At this point Morgan the injury isn't believed to be a serious one but this isn't Morgan's first concussion so it may be a bigger concern than the club is leading on. In the past when Morgan was out Will Witherspoon moved into the MLB role but on Sunday second year man Vinney Ciurciu stepped in for Morgan. The box score result however was the same as in the past as Witherspoon put up his best production of the year. Morgan is expected to miss at least this week and this injury could linger. I suggest you pick up Witherspoon if he's available. Ciurciu posted good numbers himself and could be a decent addition if Morgan is out long term. At least with Witherspoon you get a guy who will still produce even when/if Morgan returns... The time has probably come to cut Mike Rucker even though he will blow up as soon as we do. The guy has vanished in 4 of 7 games so far and there is no real reason to believe the Panthers will suddenly step up on D. They have just 9 sacks on the season as a team.   

Miami Dolphins
There is a linebacker shuffle in the works for the Dolphins. Junior Seau suffered a chest injury in the Monday night game that could land him on IR. At this point its unclear who will play where but Eddie Moore will move into the lineup. Moore may end up playing strong side with Morlon Greenwood moving over over to weak. The Miami defense is built around Zach Thomas and no other Miami LB has held much value since he has been there so chances are this situation won't make a splash in the fantasy pool... For those wondering about Jason Taylor's slump, part of the problem remains the fact that he has been the focal point of offensive blocking schemes but he has also been fighting a sore knee for a few weeks... Sammy Knight put up a season high 6-3-0 against New York which might just be the beginning of a trend. Seau may be done, the team is virtually eliminated from the chase, the offense is horrible and there are already rumors flying about a possible coaching change. All these thing point toward a potential stat boost for Knight down the stretch.  

New York Giants
A wise man once told me that when it comes to football one should always coat his words with honey because you never know when you will be called upon to eat them. That is what happened to me when it comes to the New York Giants. Last week I wrote all sorts of negative things about how this team is over rated and under talented etc, and how facing a quality offense like the Vikings would show their true colors. Well its a good thing I was hungry! I wonder if someone on the Giants D found what I wrote and put it up on the chalk board for motivation? At any rate, I am still not sold on this unit but have to admit that I am now holding an open mind. They still lack talent but are playing very good team defense and showing great chemistry. We shall see if they can keep up the pace... One grand discovery that has come out of this season for New York is Gibril Wilson who has been nothing short of impressive. So much so in fact that one has to wonder about the future of Shaun Williams with the team. Williams has spent much of the past 3 years injured and is getting up in (football) years. If he does make a full recovery and is ready to play next season does he get his job back? I think he may find himself on the outside looking in... One week after being benched for being late to a practice Berrett Green returned to the starting WLB job in week 9. However his stay was a short one as Green suffered a sprained knee and ankle early in the game. He was replaced by Nick Greisen who went on to lead the club in tackles on the day. An MRI confirms the injuries are only sprains but there is no word as of yet on Green's availability for week 9.

St. Louis Rams
Talk about an off the wall move. The Rams this week announced that Trev Faulk has been promoted to the starting MLB job. Robert Thomas has been fighting an ankle injury and returned to practice Monday, working exclusively with the second team. It wouldn't be such a surprise if Faulk had been playing all along and earned the job but Faulk himself has only appeared in 3 games this season while fighting his way back from a hamstring injury. The position has limited potential unless Faulk can somehow find his way into one of the nickel LB roles. At the moment Polley and Tinoisamoa are handling those duties but the way Mike Matrz has been shuffling guys around at LB anything could happen... Tony Hargrove had strong game in week 7 when he replaced Bryce Fisher (chest) in the line up. Hargrove was initially credited with a sack that belonged to Leonard Little but even without the sack his 6-1-0 was a nice contribution. Fisher returned to practice on Monday but did not go full speed. He is expected to be available for Sunday but may not be a starter. If Hargrove gets another chance and shines again, don't be surprised if he is promoted. 

New England Patriots
The streak is finally over so now what is there to talk about concerning the Patriots? How about the solid and consistent production of ILB Ted Johnson? He hasn't put up the monster numbers that would get him noticed in fantasy circles but what he has done is to quietly emerge as dependable quality depth for fantasy owners. Johnson has at least 5 solo tackles in all 4 of his starts on the season. He's completely replaced Roman Phifer in the base defense and has proven more consistent than Tedy Bruschi. As the season wears on and players continue to drop with injuries, Johnson may begin to look better and better if he can keep up the pace... Rosevelt Colvin continues to work his way back from last years injury. As with many serious injuries it will probably be 2 years before he is completely recovered so his lack of production this season is not all together unexpected. That said, expect the coaching staff to try and get him a little more work down the stretch in hope that he will be a bigger contributor during the playoffs.

Indianapolis Colts
Its sort of a bad news good news situation for the Colts at safety this week. The bad news is that Mike Doss aggravated his groin injury and will miss at least this weeks game. The good news is that rookie Bob Sanders is finally healthy and did an excellent job filling in for Doss. Sanders will start this week and should be at the top of everyone's pickup list considering the state of the Colts D at this point.  

New York Jets
Jon McGraw was supposed to have an increased role in week 8 and "see some time in the base defense". He didn't actually start the game but you wouldn't know it from his 10-1-0 with a pick. Its safe to expect that McGraw will be back at FS full time this week. I doubt he'll muster many more 10 tackle games but he has a lot of potential and should be on your pick up list this week if your thin at the position. The other important factor here is that Erik Coleman moved over to SS when McGraw was on the field with Reggie Tongue going to the bench... Look for news on an injury to John Abraham this week. He was 3-0-1 at the end of the first quarter on Monday night then was shown being attended to on the sideline early in the second. Abraham returned to the field but missed a lot of snaps and was ineffective the rest of the way (I needed 1 more tackle from him to win a game.. UGG!) As of late Tuesday there is no word on the injury.   

Atlanta Falcons
Its officially time for Patrick Kerney owners to become concerned. After the monster start when he went 22-2-7 over the first 4 games, he has not only cooled off but has become almost frigid with just an 8-1-0 count over the last 4 games. I believe there are a couple of factors at work here and none of them have anything to do with Kerney not playing just as hard as he was early. The biggest reason for the fall off is simple, heading into the season opposing coaches had nothing to study when preparing to face Atlanta. Film of last years 3-4 was useless so the Falcons basically had an element of surprise working for them. Once we got a few weeks into the season there was game film to study and offensive coordinators were able to make adjustments based on what the Falcons were doing. They also got to see how dominating Kerney could be thus have been able to develop blocking schemes to keep him at bay. The injury to Rod Coleman is also a factor that shouldn't be ignored. Kerney and Coleman lining up on the same side created some serious problems for blocking schemes because both are such exceptional pass rushers. Both the Falcons and Kerney owners need to be sending positive vibes toward Coleman who may be able to return in week 10 after the bye.      

Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jags didn't waste any time getting new addition Jason Gildon involved in the defense. He saw significant action at DE in passing situations but didn't exactly make a big splash with just a 3-0-0 mark. That said he did look much better than expected considering he hasn't played much this year. He'll be given plenty of opportunity over the next few weeks and is worth keeping an eye on.

Minnesota Vikings
All that time spent staring at E.J. Henderson's name while he sat idly taking up room on my rosters finally paid off in week 8 as Henderson is healthy at last and has taken his place at the top of the Minnesota box score. This will become a common site so long as he can remain healthy so if he happens to be available in your league jump on him... The Vikings got a bit of a scare Sunday when Kenechi Udeze had to be helped off the field with an ankle injury. There is good news here though as the injury isn't serious and he is expected to go this weekend. 

Philadelphia Eagles
The one knock against most of the Eagles in terms of IDP value has been their lacking consistency over the years. Brian Dawkins is making a strong bid to break that trend this year. Over the last 4 games Dawkins has piled up 28 solo tackles and a pair of sacks. even more importantly he's put up 8 tackles in 3 of those 4 starts despite facing some less than impressive offenses. On the other hand the normally big play oriented value of Dawkins has taken a hit as he has yet to record an interception and has just one fumble recovery on the season. Could it be that the coaching staff has slightly tweaked Dawkins responsibilities in the scheme? Its hard to tell while watching on TV but it sure seems like that could be the case. At any rate I will trade consistency for a few big plays anytime and Dawkins stock is on the rise.

Tennessee Titans
Travis LaBoy had a relatively quiet week 8 but that doesn't change the fact that the Titans are very pleased with his play and his progress this season. LaBoy got the start opposite Kevin Carter against Cincinnati and at this point it seems possible if not probable that he will retain the job once Carlos Hall returns in a few weeks. The team may move Carter back inside where he was projected to play this year leaving Hall and Laboy to start on the ends. This is a dynasty owners special as even if LaBoy doesn't play full time now he is nearly certain to open the '05 season at right DE... The Titans hope to have MLB Rocky Calmus back on the field to practice this week but then he tried to go last week and was unable to fully participate. If he doesn't begin to show signs of a return soon he could find himself on IR sometime this month.      

Arizona Cardinals
Dealing with Arizona defenders has become a lot like playing the lottery. If you guess the right week you might get an 11-2-0 out of James Darling or an 8-2-0 from Adrian Wilson but guess wrong and you are left holding the bag with a big zero from Ifeanyi Ohalete or Ray Thompson. Unfortunately there seems to be no rhyme or reason to help us predict who will go off from week to week. Ohalete managed 8 solo's in week 7  to Wilson's 4. He started the week 8 contest but failed to record a single tackle against Buffalo. His backup Quentin Harris went 3-0-0 which would suggest that Ohalete was either injured or benched. As of Wednesday morning neither of these possibilities can be confirmed. After starting the last two games at WLB Ray Thompson was absent from the starting lineup against Buffalo for no obvious reason and played very sparingly. Darling got the start in his place and proceeded to go large. Darling now has recorded 5 or more solo stops in 4 of 7 games this season but has 3 total tackles to show for the other 3 games combined. Calvin Pace had a nice run going with 4 sacks in a 3 game span between weeks 3-5 but instead of seeing more playing time as a reward he has seen the field rarely over the last two games and didn't play until the 4th quarter against Buffalo. Meanwhile Peppi Zellner continues to occupy the starting job despite doing absolutely nothing since week 2. The bottom line here is that the only dependable option of the group at this point is SS Adrian Wilson. All the others are interesting options but are very scary to consider as starters. Wilson left Sunday's game late after aggravating his sore knee but the injury that's not believed to be serious and shouldn't cause him to miss any time.      

Dallas Cowboys
The Dallas secondary is very injury depleted. So much so in fact that rookie 7th round pick Nathan Jones received the majority of the playing time at corner on Sunday and some guy named Lynn Scott got the start at SS after having barely made the final cut back in August. Jones played well against Detroit and is set to start against Cincinnati this week. With a talent like Terence Newman on the other side, Jones will be targeted. 

Detroit Lions
I'm not a big Earl Holmes fan but the situation in Detroit is making him a major fantasy factor. Over the past three weeks Holmes checks in as a top 5 LB with an impressive mark of 26-10-0. Injuries continue to keep the Lions LB corps thin as James Davis, Donte' Curry and Boss Bailey are all down with knee injuries. Boss Bailey is still a couple of weeks away from a return. There is no reason to think Holmes won't continue to be productive, so if he's out there snatch him up. I AM a big fan of Teddy Lehman who continues to be productive despite still being stuck at SLB. His playing time on passing downs is just enough to make Lehman a decent #3 starter at this point. If Bailey ever returns Lehman will move back to WLB and his value will increase... Despite stepping up in recent weeks and finally being healthy Kalimba Edwards has yet to return to the starting lineup. Cory Redding started Sundays game while Edwards played sparingly.   

New Orleans Saints
When Darren Howard went down a couple of weeks back it was thought to be a very minor knee injury and it was fully expected that he would be good to go when the team returns from their week 8 bye. Those of us familiar with Howard already knew better. He has a history of being not only fragile but slow to recover. Howard didn't practice all last week and was unable to go on Tuesday. He is officially going to be listed as questionable but chances are he will sit again this week. That means those of us sitting on Will Smith will have yet another opportunity to play him if needed. The Saints are becoming very frustrated with Howard and I expect he will not be with the team come next season. They didn't spend a first round pick on Smith to have him serve as a back up you know.  

Seattle Seahawks
He didn't get the start Sunday but SS Michael Boulware received a significant number of snaps in the base defense for the first time. So much so in fact that starter Terreal Bierria didn't even make an appearance in the box score... The Seahawks hope to get back several of their injured starters by or before week 10 including Anthony Simmons and Grant Wistrom. Neither has been ruled out for week 9 but chances are they will sit one more game and return to practice next week.

Oakland Raiders
Those of you who have been hesitant to move on Napoleon Harris got another reason to do so when Danny Clark was injured late in Sunday's game. Clark suffered a sprained knee and early reports have him questionable for week 9. It was a knee sprain that kept Harris out for several weeks and there is a real chance Clark could miss considerable time. Meanwhile Harris is not quite 100% himself but has suffered no setbacks with his sore knee and will be counted on to step it up now. The 6 solo stops he put up Sunday are his second best production of the season to date but the important point is that he was able to play full time. With both Clark and Travian Smith hurt there is a good chance the Raiders will be forced back into a 4-3 base defense which isn't a bad thing for Harris's numbers either. Since his numbers have been down Harris is going to be available in a lot of leagues at this point. With the Raiders on the verge of implosion and considering all the injuries I strongly suggest you snatch Harris up and watch this situation closely... Marques Anderson topped the Raiders week 8 box score for the second time in 3 games. Strangely enough he did it despite not even getting the start in Sunday's game. Nnamdi Asomugha was the official starter at SS and ended up with a solid 6-1-0 himself. Anderson actually filled a linebackers position in the game serving in a role very similar to that of Adam Archuleta in St. Louis. The thing that is scary about Anderson is that we don't know from week to week how he will be used in the defense or what kind of production to expect from him. He's had a couple of big games lately but has 3 or fewer solo stops in 5 of 8 games on the season. With all the struggles Oakland is going through right now it wouldn't be a bad idea to pick Anderson up but I don't think I would be in a hurry to make him a starter. One inportant thing to consider if your looking at either Anderson or Harris on this weeks waiver wire, the Raiders remaining schedule is nothing short of brutal. They have the Panthers this week but on the other side of their week 10 bye they face San Diego, Denver, Kansas City (twice), Atlanta, and Tennessee down the stretch. OUCH!  

Kansas City Chiefs
Kawika Mitchell got the start at MLB for the injured Monte Beisel in week 8 and turned in a solid performance. The kind of performance in fact that the Chiefs expected when they spent their 2nd round pick on him last year. Mitchell was instrumental in shutting down Edgerrin James (10 for 34) last Sunday. Beisel is unlikely to go again this week against the Bucks which means Mitchell will get a chance to prove last week was no fluke. If he continues to play at this level we may have seen the last of Beisel as a starter in KC. Mitchell should be high on the pick up list this week and dynasty owners should be looking at his particularly hard as he is considered to be the future at the position and could be the starter for years to come.  

Washington Redskins
It sure would have been nice of Joe Gibbs to let us know ahead of time that he was going to suspend Sean Taylor for a game due to his DUI arrest last week. Unfortunately there was nothing said until Taylor was declared inactive on Sunday which for many of us was too late. I for one was not in front of the PC Sunday morning thus started Taylor and lost a game by what amounts to 2 tackles while Adrian Wilson sat on my bench. Yuck! At any rate, we don't have to worry about Taylor missing any more time at this point as his DUI trial will undoubtedly be put off until the off-season, and the NFL (unlike Gibbs) waits until a guy is proven guilty before acting. Adding injury to insult for the Skins "starting" safety Andre Lott suffered a chest injury in Sunday's game that will end his season. This means Taylor and Ryan Clark will be the starters the rest of the way. Taylor is unlikely to be available despite his struggles/issue but Clark will still be a free agent in many leagues. The Skins are obviously not very good this year. Combine that with the continued injury problems at LB and their safeties certainly project to remain very busy guys on Sundays. Clark has now started 3 games and has yet to total fewer than 6 solo stops in any of them. He's 22-4-0 over that 3 game span and there is no reason to believe he won't put up similar numbers the rest of the way... The time has come to give up on LaVar Arrington for the season. He was supposed to be ready to start coming off the teams bye week but suffered a set back in practice leading up to week 8. He's now expected to miss 4 more weeks which basically put us at the end of our regular season. Lemar Marshall will continue to start and might make a decent backup on your squad. At the least he will give you a lot more production than Arrington.          

Green Bay Packers
The Packers D made huge improvements statistically from week 7 to week 8. The Skins are very offensively challenged at this point so much of the improvement can be attributed to the opponent but it was no coincidence that the team improved when Grady Jackson returned to action. Jackson is the anchor of the Packers front 7 and getting him back was a "huge" lift (pun intended) for the struggling unit. His presence should go a long way toward helping protect undersized MLB Nick Barnett who has struggled in recent weeks... Bhawoh Jue got the start at FS for the injured Darren Sharper and had an excellent game. Don't waste your time picking him up though as Sharper is expected to be back in the lineup for week 10 following this weeks bye.    

Until next week, Just Win Baby!

John

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