Eyes of the Guru - Week 9
|
Posted 11/3 by John Norton, Exclusive to Footballguys.com
|
San Francisco 49'ers
A few weeks back when Julian Peterson went down I was all over
picking up Jeff Ulbrich based on the fact that Derek Smith played in Peterson's
position during his hold out. Ulbrich played in the very productive MLB position
at that time and returned there for a couple of weeks when Smith was dinged as
well. Apparently the Niners coaching staff wasn't happy with that arrangement
and have shuffled the positions again. Ulbrich is now playing Peterson's OLB
position with Smith back in the middle and Jamie Winborn handling Ulbrich's old
WLB position. What this does in essence is to ruin Ulbrich's value completely as
he is not talented enough to make plays at OLB. It also makes both Smith and
Winborn prime candidates to finish the year strong. The Niners D has been
hammered by injuries at all 3 levels and offenses are going to keep them on the
field a lot down the stretch, which means a huge number of opportunities for
Smith and Winborn. Winborn is a smallish linebacker who depends on speed and
quickness so its understandable why the coaching staff wants him at WLB where he
can use his skills. If either of these guys is still available in your league
don't hesitate to move on them... The club hopes to get Andre Carter back in the
next couple of weeks. He is set to begin practicing on a limited basis this
week. This would be great news considering the team just lost starting end
Brandon Whiting for the season with a knee injury... All the injuries and
offensive struggles also point toward a strong finish for Tony Parrish who's
stock is on the rise after his string of strong outings. Parrish has at least 5
solo stops in 5 straight games with a mark of 31-9-0 over that stretch.
Chicago Bears
While the Bears D has played well in general this season there is
concern about the lack of pass rush from the DE positions. Michael Haynes has
been particularly disappointing posting just one sack on the season and that
coming in week 1. With Ogunleye out the past couple of games Haynes hasn't been
able to step up and neither has Alex Brown who also has just 1 sack to his
credit. Fortunately Ogunleye is expected back possibly as soon as this Sunday.
Meanwhile the coaching staff has turned to Brian Urlacher to help pick up the
slack.
Denver Broncos
Kenoy Kennedy bounced back nicely after a
poor outing in week 7 but the big news out of Denver is the fractured tailbone
suffered by John Lynch on Sunday. He will miss at least a couple of weeks and
likely more with the injury and will be replaced by former starter Nick
Ferguson. Kennedy seems to be the only DB with any consistent value here and not
contending with Lynch could give him a little boost. The schedule also looks
good for Kennedy as 6 of the last 8 games on the schedule are against teams with
strong offenses/running games including the Chargers, Chiefs, Titans and Colts
starting in week 13.
Carolina Panthers
Just when we were starting to think Dan
Morgan may have finally turned the corner in his battle with the injury bug, he
suffers a concussion. At this point Morgan the injury isn't believed to be a
serious one but this isn't Morgan's first concussion so it may be a bigger
concern than the club is leading on. In the past when Morgan was out Will
Witherspoon moved into the MLB role but on Sunday second year man Vinney Ciurciu
stepped in for Morgan. The box score result however was the same as in the past
as Witherspoon put up his best production of the year. Morgan is expected to
miss at least this week and this injury could linger. I suggest you pick up
Witherspoon if he's available. Ciurciu posted good numbers himself and could be
a decent addition if Morgan is out long term. At least with Witherspoon you get
a guy who will still produce even when/if Morgan returns... The time has
probably come to cut Mike Rucker even though he will blow up as soon as we do.
The guy has vanished in 4 of 7 games so far and there is no real reason to
believe the Panthers will suddenly step up on D. They have just 9 sacks on the
season as a team.
Miami Dolphins
There is a linebacker shuffle in the works for the Dolphins.
Junior Seau suffered a chest injury in the Monday night game that could land him
on IR. At this point its unclear who will play where but Eddie Moore will move
into the lineup. Moore may end up playing strong side with Morlon Greenwood
moving over over to weak. The Miami defense is built around Zach Thomas and no
other Miami LB has held much value since he has been there so chances are this
situation won't make a splash in the fantasy pool... For those wondering about
Jason Taylor's slump, part of the problem remains the fact that he has been the
focal point of offensive blocking schemes but he has also been fighting a sore
knee for a few weeks... Sammy Knight put up a season high 6-3-0 against New York
which might just be the beginning of a trend. Seau may be done, the team is
virtually eliminated from the chase, the offense is horrible and there are
already rumors flying about a possible coaching change. All these thing point
toward a potential stat boost for Knight down the stretch.
New York Giants
A wise man once told me that when it comes to football one
should always coat his words with honey because you never know when you will be
called upon to eat them. That is what happened to me when it comes to the New
York Giants. Last week I wrote all sorts of negative things about how this team
is over rated and under talented etc, and how facing a quality offense like the
Vikings would show their true colors. Well its a good thing I was hungry! I
wonder if someone on the Giants D found what I wrote and put it up on the chalk
board for motivation? At any rate, I am still not sold on this unit but have to
admit that I am now holding an open mind. They still lack talent but are playing
very good team defense and showing great chemistry. We shall see if they can
keep up the pace... One grand discovery that has come out of this season for New
York is Gibril Wilson who has been nothing short of impressive. So much so in
fact that one has to wonder about the future of Shaun Williams with the team.
Williams has spent much of the past 3 years injured and is getting up in
(football) years. If he does make a full recovery and is ready to play next
season does he get his job back? I think he may find himself on the outside
looking in... One week after being benched for being late to a practice Berrett
Green returned to the starting WLB job in week 9. However his stay was a short
one as Green suffered a sprained knee and ankle early in the game. He was
replaced by Nick Greisen who went on to lead the club in tackles on the day. An
MRI confirms the injuries are only sprains but there is no word as of yet on
Green's availability for week 9.
St. Louis Rams
Talk about an off the wall move. The Rams this week announced
that Trev Faulk has been promoted to the starting MLB job. Robert Thomas has
been fighting an ankle injury and returned to practice Monday, working
exclusively with the second team. It wouldn't be such a surprise if Faulk had
been playing all along and earned the job but Faulk himself has only appeared in
3 games this season while fighting his way back from a hamstring injury. The
position has limited potential unless Faulk can somehow find his way into one of
the nickel LB roles. At the moment Polley and Tinoisamoa are handling those
duties but the way Mike Matrz has been shuffling guys around at LB anything
could happen... Tony Hargrove had strong game in week 7 when he replaced Bryce
Fisher (chest) in the line up. Hargrove was initially credited with a sack that
belonged to Leonard Little but even without the sack his 6-1-0 was a nice
contribution. Fisher returned to practice on Monday but did not go full speed.
He is expected to be available for Sunday but may not be a starter. If Hargrove
gets another chance and shines again, don't be surprised if he is promoted.
New England Patriots
The streak is finally over so now what is there to talk about
concerning the Patriots? How about the solid and consistent production of ILB
Ted Johnson? He hasn't put up the monster numbers that would get him noticed in
fantasy circles but what he has done is to quietly emerge as dependable quality
depth for fantasy owners. Johnson has at least 5 solo tackles in all 4 of his
starts on the season. He's completely replaced Roman Phifer in the base defense
and has proven more consistent than Tedy Bruschi. As the season wears on and
players continue to drop with injuries, Johnson may begin to look better and
better if he can keep up the pace... Rosevelt Colvin continues to work his way
back from last years injury. As with many serious injuries it will probably be 2
years before he is completely recovered so his lack of production this season is
not all together unexpected. That said, expect the coaching staff to try and get
him a little more work down the stretch in hope that he will be a bigger
contributor during the playoffs.
Indianapolis Colts
Its sort of a bad news good news
situation for the Colts at safety this week. The bad news is that Mike Doss
aggravated his groin injury and will miss at least this weeks game. The good
news is that rookie Bob Sanders is finally healthy and did an excellent job
filling in for Doss. Sanders will start this week and should be at the top of
everyone's pickup list considering the state of the Colts D at this point.
New York Jets
Jon McGraw was supposed to have an
increased role in week 8 and "see some time in the base defense". He didn't
actually start the game but you wouldn't know it from his 10-1-0 with a pick.
Its safe to expect that McGraw will be back at FS full time this week. I doubt
he'll muster many more 10 tackle games but he has a lot of potential and should
be on your pick up list this week if your thin at the position. The other
important factor here is that Erik Coleman moved over to SS when McGraw was on
the field with Reggie Tongue going to the bench... Look for news on an injury to
John Abraham this week. He was 3-0-1 at the end of the first quarter on Monday
night then was shown being attended to on the sideline early in the second.
Abraham returned to the field but missed a lot of snaps and was ineffective the
rest of the way (I needed 1 more tackle from him to win a game.. UGG!) As of
late Tuesday there is no word on the injury.
Atlanta Falcons
Its officially time for Patrick Kerney owners to become
concerned. After the monster start when he went 22-2-7 over the first 4 games,
he has not only cooled off but has become almost frigid with just an 8-1-0 count
over the last 4 games. I believe there are a couple of factors at work here and
none of them have anything to do with Kerney not playing just as hard as he was
early. The biggest reason for the fall off is simple, heading into the season
opposing coaches had nothing to study when preparing to face Atlanta. Film of
last years 3-4 was useless so the Falcons basically had an element of surprise
working for them. Once we got a few weeks into the season there was game film to
study and offensive coordinators were able to make adjustments based on what the
Falcons were doing. They also got to see how dominating Kerney could be thus
have been able to develop blocking schemes to keep him at bay. The injury to Rod
Coleman is also a factor that shouldn't be ignored. Kerney and Coleman lining up
on the same side created some serious problems for blocking schemes because both
are such exceptional pass rushers. Both the Falcons and Kerney owners need to be
sending positive vibes toward Coleman who may be able to return in week 10 after
the bye.
Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jags didn't waste any time getting new addition Jason
Gildon involved in the defense. He saw significant action at DE in passing
situations but didn't exactly make a big splash with just a 3-0-0 mark. That
said he did look much better than expected considering he hasn't played much
this year. He'll be given plenty of opportunity over the next few weeks and is
worth keeping an eye on.
Minnesota Vikings
All that time spent staring at E.J. Henderson's name while he
sat idly taking up room on my rosters finally paid off in week 8 as Henderson is
healthy at last and has taken his place at the top of the Minnesota box score.
This will become a common site so long as he can remain healthy so if he happens
to be available in your league jump on him... The Vikings got a bit of a scare
Sunday when Kenechi Udeze had to be helped off the field with an ankle injury.
There is good news here though as the injury isn't serious and he is expected to
go this weekend.
Philadelphia Eagles
The one knock against most of the Eagles in terms of IDP
value has been their lacking consistency over the years. Brian Dawkins is making
a strong bid to break that trend this year. Over the last 4 games Dawkins has
piled up 28 solo tackles and a pair of sacks. even more importantly he's put up
8 tackles in 3 of those 4 starts despite facing some less than impressive
offenses. On the other hand the normally big play oriented value of Dawkins has
taken a hit as he has yet to record an interception and has just one fumble
recovery on the season. Could it be that the coaching staff has slightly tweaked
Dawkins responsibilities in the scheme? Its hard to tell while watching on TV
but it sure seems like that could be the case. At any rate I will trade
consistency for a few big plays anytime and Dawkins stock is on the rise.
Tennessee Titans
Travis LaBoy had a relatively quiet week 8 but
that doesn't change the fact that the Titans are very pleased with his play and
his progress this season. LaBoy got the start opposite Kevin Carter against
Cincinnati and at this point it seems possible if not probable that he will
retain the job once Carlos Hall returns in a few weeks. The team may move Carter
back inside where he was projected to play this year leaving Hall and Laboy to
start on the ends. This is a dynasty owners special as even if LaBoy doesn't
play full time now he is nearly certain to open the '05 season at right DE...
The Titans hope to have MLB Rocky Calmus back on the field to practice this week
but then he tried to go last week and was unable to fully participate. If he
doesn't begin to show signs of a return soon he could find himself on IR
sometime this month.
Arizona Cardinals
Dealing with Arizona defenders has become a lot like playing
the lottery. If you guess the right week you might get an 11-2-0 out of James
Darling or an 8-2-0 from Adrian Wilson but guess wrong and you are left holding
the bag with a big zero from Ifeanyi Ohalete or Ray Thompson. Unfortunately
there seems to be no rhyme or reason to help us predict who will go off from
week to week. Ohalete managed 8 solo's in week 7 to Wilson's 4. He started
the week 8 contest but failed to record a single tackle against Buffalo. His
backup Quentin Harris went 3-0-0 which would suggest that Ohalete was either
injured or benched. As of Wednesday morning neither of these possibilities can
be confirmed. After starting the last two games at WLB Ray Thompson was absent
from the starting lineup against Buffalo for no obvious reason and played very
sparingly. Darling got the start in his place and proceeded to go large. Darling
now has recorded 5 or more solo stops in 4 of 7 games this season but has 3
total tackles to show for the other 3 games combined. Calvin Pace had a nice run
going with 4 sacks in a 3 game span between weeks 3-5 but instead of seeing more
playing time as a reward he has seen the field rarely over the last two games
and didn't play until the 4th quarter against Buffalo. Meanwhile Peppi Zellner
continues to occupy the starting job despite doing absolutely nothing since week
2. The bottom line here is that the only dependable option of the group at this
point is SS Adrian Wilson. All the others are interesting options but are very
scary to consider as starters. Wilson left Sunday's game late after aggravating
his sore knee but the injury that's not believed to be serious and shouldn't
cause him to miss any time.
Dallas Cowboys
The Dallas secondary is very injury depleted. So much so in
fact that rookie 7th round pick Nathan Jones received the majority of the
playing time at corner on Sunday and some guy named Lynn Scott got the start at
SS after having barely made the final cut back in August. Jones played well
against Detroit and is set to start against Cincinnati this week. With a talent
like Terence Newman on the other side, Jones will be targeted.
Detroit Lions
I'm not a big Earl Holmes fan but the situation in Detroit is
making him a major fantasy factor. Over the past three weeks Holmes checks in as
a top 5 LB with an impressive mark of 26-10-0. Injuries continue to keep the
Lions LB corps thin as James Davis, Donte' Curry and Boss Bailey are all down
with knee injuries. Boss Bailey is still a couple of weeks away from a return.
There is no reason to think Holmes won't continue to be productive, so if he's
out there snatch him up. I AM a big fan of Teddy Lehman who continues to be
productive despite still being stuck at SLB. His playing time on passing downs
is just enough to make Lehman a decent #3 starter at this point. If Bailey ever
returns Lehman will move back to WLB and his value will increase... Despite
stepping up in recent weeks and finally being healthy Kalimba Edwards has yet to
return to the starting lineup. Cory Redding started Sundays game while Edwards
played sparingly.
New Orleans Saints
When Darren Howard went down a couple of weeks back it was
thought to be a very minor knee injury and it was fully expected that he would
be good to go when the team returns from their week 8 bye. Those of us familiar
with Howard already knew better. He has a history of being not only fragile but
slow to recover. Howard didn't practice all last week and was unable to go on
Tuesday. He is officially going to be listed as questionable but chances are he
will sit again this week. That means those of us sitting on Will Smith will have
yet another opportunity to play him if needed. The Saints are becoming very
frustrated with Howard and I expect he will not be with the team come next
season. They didn't spend a first round pick on Smith to have him serve as a
back up you know.
Seattle Seahawks
He didn't get the start Sunday but SS Michael Boulware
received a significant number of snaps in the base defense for the first time.
So much so in fact that starter Terreal Bierria didn't even make an appearance
in the box score... The Seahawks hope to get back several of their injured
starters by or before week 10 including Anthony Simmons and Grant Wistrom.
Neither has been ruled out for week 9 but chances are they will sit one more
game and return to practice next week.
Oakland Raiders
Those of you who have been hesitant to
move on Napoleon Harris got another reason to do so when Danny Clark was injured
late in Sunday's game. Clark suffered a sprained knee and early reports have him
questionable for week 9. It was a knee sprain that kept Harris out for several
weeks and there is a real chance Clark could miss considerable time. Meanwhile
Harris is not quite 100% himself but has suffered no setbacks with his sore knee
and will be counted on to step it up now. The 6 solo stops he put up Sunday are
his second best production of the season to date but the important point is that
he was able to play full time. With both Clark and Travian Smith hurt there is a
good chance the Raiders will be forced back into a 4-3 base defense which isn't
a bad thing for Harris's numbers either. Since his numbers have been down Harris
is going to be available in a lot of leagues at this point. With the Raiders on
the verge of implosion and considering all the injuries I strongly suggest you
snatch Harris up and watch this situation closely... Marques Anderson topped the
Raiders week 8 box score for the second time in 3 games. Strangely enough he did
it despite not even getting the start in Sunday's game. Nnamdi Asomugha was the
official starter at SS and ended up with a solid 6-1-0 himself. Anderson
actually filled a linebackers position in the game serving in a role very
similar to that of Adam Archuleta in St. Louis. The thing that is scary about
Anderson is that we don't know from week to week how he will be used in the
defense or what kind of production to expect from him. He's had a couple of big
games lately but has 3 or fewer solo stops in 5 of 8 games on the season. With
all the struggles Oakland is going through right now it wouldn't be a bad idea
to pick Anderson up but I don't think I would be in a hurry to make him a
starter. One inportant thing to consider if your looking at either Anderson or
Harris on this weeks waiver wire, the Raiders remaining schedule is nothing
short of brutal. They have the Panthers this week but on the other side of their
week 10 bye they face San Diego, Denver, Kansas City (twice), Atlanta, and
Tennessee down the stretch. OUCH!
Kansas City Chiefs
Kawika Mitchell got the start at MLB
for the injured Monte Beisel in week 8 and turned in a solid performance. The
kind of performance in fact that the Chiefs expected when they spent their 2nd
round pick on him last year. Mitchell was instrumental in shutting down Edgerrin
James (10 for 34) last Sunday. Beisel is unlikely to go again this week against
the Bucks which means Mitchell will get a chance to prove last week was no
fluke. If he continues to play at this level we may have seen the last of Beisel
as a starter in KC. Mitchell should be high on the pick up list this week and
dynasty owners should be looking at his particularly hard as he is considered to
be the future at the position and could be the starter for years to come.
Washington Redskins
It sure would have been nice of Joe Gibbs to let us know
ahead of time that he was going to suspend Sean Taylor for a game due to his DUI
arrest last week. Unfortunately there was nothing said until Taylor was declared
inactive on Sunday which for many of us was too late. I for one was not in front
of the PC Sunday morning thus started Taylor and lost a game by what amounts to
2 tackles while Adrian Wilson sat on my bench. Yuck! At any rate, we don't have
to worry about Taylor missing any more time at this point as his DUI trial will
undoubtedly be put off until the off-season, and the NFL (unlike Gibbs) waits
until a guy is proven guilty before acting. Adding injury to insult for the
Skins "starting" safety Andre Lott suffered a chest injury in Sunday's game that
will end his season. This means Taylor and Ryan Clark will be the starters the
rest of the way. Taylor is unlikely to be available despite his struggles/issue
but Clark will still be a free agent in many leagues. The Skins are obviously
not very good this year. Combine that with the continued injury problems at LB
and their safeties certainly project to remain very busy guys on Sundays. Clark
has now started 3 games and has yet to total fewer than 6 solo stops in any of
them. He's 22-4-0 over that 3 game span and there is no reason to believe he
won't put up similar numbers the rest of the way... The time has come to give up
on LaVar Arrington for the season. He was supposed to be ready to start coming
off the teams bye week but suffered a set back in practice leading up to week 8.
He's now expected to miss 4 more weeks which basically put us at the end of our
regular season. Lemar Marshall will continue to start and might make a decent
backup on your squad. At the least he will give you a lot more production than
Arrington.
Green Bay Packers
The Packers D made huge improvements statistically from week
7 to week 8. The Skins are very offensively challenged at this point so much of
the improvement can be attributed to the opponent but it was no coincidence that
the team improved when Grady Jackson returned to action. Jackson is the anchor
of the Packers front 7 and getting him back was a "huge" lift (pun intended) for
the struggling unit. His presence should go a long way toward helping protect
undersized MLB Nick Barnett who has struggled in recent weeks... Bhawoh Jue got
the start at FS for the injured Darren Sharper and had an excellent game. Don't
waste your time picking him up though as Sharper is expected to be back in the
lineup for week 10 following this weeks bye.
Until next week, Just Win Baby!
John
|