Hello everyone and welcome to another season of IDP insights. This will be the 8th season for the Eyes of the Guru column as well as its third home. While I have to admit closing the door on the Red Eye Sports "era" comes with mixed emotions, I am very excited and looking foreword to working with the best team in the fantasy game here at Football Guys. Those of you who are in IDP leagues and have never read the EOTG column should find it quite useful. Those who have joined the loyal following over the past 7 years will be even happier this year. Now that I have shed all the extra responsibilities that came with my Red Eye Sports duties, I can concentrate more on what I truly loved to begin with which is playing and writing about fantasy football. This is the first of many helpings of the Eyes of the Guru which will be a weekly feature here at Football Guys for the '04 season and hopefully far beyond.

Defensive Line

Steelers, Chargers, Ravens, Patriots, Texans

These are all teams that will use a 3-4 scheme as their base defense. It is very rare for a lineman in this scheme to post productive fantasy numbers. There have been some exceptions over the years but they are few and even fewer of them have managed to sustain quality production for more than one season. In fact the only DL in this alignment ever to make the top 15 more once in his career was Bruce Smith way back in the early 90's in Buffalo. The Steelers Aaron Smith and Atlanta's Patrick Kerney both had excellent '02 seasons but were complete busts in '03. Generally speaking the type of linemen required in a 3-4 aren't the most athletic. Their biggest responsibility is to eat up blockers and keep traffic off the linebackers. The Patriots are loaded with quality players on their line but even these guys have only average potential in this type of system. Kelly Gregg of the Ravens somehow manages to post a lot of solo stops from his nose tackle position but has only 5 sacks over the past two seasons. He remains the best fantasy option between all these clubs.

Buffalo Bills - The Bills defense made huge strides as a unit in '03 and no one profited more from the improvement than Aaron Schobel. Despite pitching a goose egg in each of the first two weeks, Schobel posted 38 solo tackles and 11 sacks on the season. This year he won't suffer the slow start and should continue to improve. Don't be surprised if he approaches the 15 sack plateau for and posts 45 or more solo stops, especially if either Ryan Denny or Chris Kelsay can step up and contribute with some pass rush. At this point it looks like Denney has a slight edge but only because of his experience. He started 13 games a year ago and posted just 3 sacks. To his credit 2 of those came in the last two games of the season. Keep an eye on this one, the winner should be considered a deep sleeper with good upside. Tackle Pat Williams is annually among the positions leading tacklers but his lack of pass rush (just .5 sacks in '03) is a killer, unless of course, your league is heavily weighted toward tackles.

Miami Dolphins - Its still a little early to panic but the situation in Miami is already approaching critical mass. Ricky would rather smoke pot than play football, Boston is lost to injury for the season, the team has no QB and their sack leader from last year is holding out with no resolution in sight (OK so they are talking again but..). Even before the Boston injury rumors were flying that the club is shopping Adewale Ogunleye who refuses to accept his one year tender offer. The Dolphins have NO depth at DE behind Ogunleye and Jason Taylor. If indeed Ogunleye is used as trade fodder to replace Williams, it is going to have a negative impact on the perennially studly Taylor. Other clubs in similar situations have turned to their linebackers and blitzes to help pressure the QB but Miami has no LB's who can bail them out. Even a stud like Taylor can't do it on his own so Slide him a few notches down your draft board until this situation is resolved. The Dolphins tackles have never been very productive so avoid them.

New York Jets - Throw out all of last years stats when it comes to the Jets defenders, especially when it comes to Shaun Ellis. The Jets have completely revamped their defensive scheme and will play mostly a variation of a 3-4 scheme. That means Ellis will become like every other end in a 3-4 scheme, which means he'll be little more than a blocking dummy. The first job of a lineman in a 3-4 is to eat up blockers so that the linebackers can flow to the ball. The Jets won't play the 3-4 on every down so Ellis could actually be somewhat productive but his chances of repeating his double digit sack numbers or his 48 solo tackles are slim to none. John Abraham on the other hand shouldn't see a big fall off due to the scheme; however he should probably be considered a LB instead of a DL. That won't happen in most leagues though, just as Willie McGinest has been a LB for years but is always allowed to be played as an end in fantasy circles. Abraham will play the weak outside backer in the new scheme which means he'll face fewer double teams than in the past as he'll line up away from the TE in single TE sets. The concern with Abraham at this point is the groin injury that shut him down last year. He is still not 100% and groin injuries can prove to be reoccurring long term problems. Just ask Marcellus Wiley. Jason Ferguson usually posts decent tackle numbers and 3 or 4 sacks but with the scheme shake up I wouldn't count on that until we see it. Dewayne Robertson may be a key to the scheme but he won't make a box score impact.

Cincinnati Bengals - Cincy didn't do much to immediately address the personnel on their DL over the off season but doesn't mean there won't be big improvement. A second year in Marvin Lewis's system will go a long way and the solid additions in the secondary will help greatly as well as they will give rushers a second or two longer to get there. Justin Smith is still looking for his first double digit sack season and it could come this year. He will play virtually every snap while the other DE position will see a mixture of players including OLB Kevin Hardy on passing downs. The experience gained last season and the well placed talent additions this year will allow Lewis to be more aggressive and create opportunity for Smith. Dynasty leaguers might want to put Robert Gathers on the radar for the future. The defensive coaches really like this kid. John Thornton and Tony Williams will retain the starting jobs at tackle. Neither have much potential though Thornton did post a career high 6 sacks last year.

Cleveland Browns - There are no sure studs to be found on this unit but there are some guys worthy of strong late round consideration. Courtney Brown remains one of the biggest teases in the fantasy game. He's missed 19 games over the past 3 seasons and hasn't played a full schedule since his rookie year (2000) when he racked up a whopping 62 solo tackles. When healthy Brown is a very productive player. He played in 13 games a year ago but was less than 100% in the last 5. Prior to that he had totaled 19-2-6 in the first 6 games. Consider him a late round gamble with big upside. Fellow DE Kenard Lang on the other hand has less upside but is a much more dependable option for those who like to play it safe. He's missed just 2 games since 1998 and has emerged as a quality every down player. Last year was actually the best of his career from a box score standpoint with 46 solo's and 8.5 sacks and there is no reason to believe he won't repeat those numbers. He's a guy who will be overlooked by most drafters and can be had for a bargain price. Excellent for depth or a decent starter if need be. Tackle Gerard Warren has some upside and is worth keeping an eye on. His sack production rebounded a little last year but teams have put the clamps on his tackle production over the past 2 seasons with consistent double teams. If your league breaks down starters to tackles and ends he's probably a fairly good option. The rest of us should take a wait and see approach.

Linebacker

New York Jets - The Jets linebacker situation is about as big a mess as can be at this point in fantasy terms. They have 4 quality backers on the roster in Cowart, Hobson, Barton and rookie Jonathan Vilma. The 3-4 scheme would be a good fit for this group except that the plan seems to be to have John Abraham play one of the outside positions. When the music stops someone will be without a chair. Heading into camp its Vilma on the outside looking in but all the names on the depth chart are written in pencil and are likely to be shuffled a few times before the opener. The Jets will experiment with several different alignments over the course of training camp but currently Cowart and Hobson are on the inside with Barton and Abraham outside in the base 3-4. Vilma is replacing Hobson in the nickel and Cowart is leaving the field in the dime package. The only lock in this group is Cowart who is a proven commodity. Cowart once played on the inside in the Bills 3-4 scheme under Wade Phillips and produced 104 solo tackles. It's a safe bet that he'll be the most consistently productive of the group this year. Vilma is certainly the future and has huge potential. The Jets have never been shy about starting rookies and he has been very impressive thus far. I'll go out on a limb and predict Cowart and Vilma will be starting together on the inside at some point this season and possibly by the time camp breaks. Barton has good rush skills as does Hobson so both are strong candidates for the strong outside (Jack) position. UPDATE: In the first preseason game the Jets opened in a 4-3 and played about an even 50/50 split of 3-4 and 4-3. On Monday after that game their depth chart changed drastically, not from a perspective of who is starting but from an alignment standpoint. They are now showing a 4-3 alignment again with Abraham back at right end, Cowart in the middle, Hobson at SLB and Barton WLB. This whole situation is quickly becoming a crap shoot. Grab Cowart and/or Vilma and ride it out. They are the two studs and eventually the cream will rise to the top.

Seattle Seahawks - The one sure thing in Seattle is Anthony Simmons who is a strong and consistent fantasy option despite being listed as the strong side linebacker. Simmons moves around the formation from play to play and doesn't serve in a traditional SLB role. He has however missed a few games with bad ankles over the past couple of years which makes his overall numbers look a little weak at a glance while adding a little risk. Simmons posted 80 solo stops in '03 despite missing 3 games and playing at less than 100% in 5 others. He's a guy who will fall in most drafts but could be a real steal as a #2 LB. The MLB position is still up in the air with 3 young players in a heated competition. Last years starter Orlando Huff is currently listed #1 but is being pushed hard. In my opinion the battle is basically between last years 4th round pick Solomon Bates and this years #4 Niko Koutouvides. There is a long way to go but I believe Koutivides will come out on top. The team has already seen enough of Huff to know he's not the answer. Bates struggled with injuries last year, and played only on special teams when he was healthy. He hasn't played much and doesn't hold any real experience advantage. The team however had all last year to look at him and apparently weren't all that impressed or they wouldn't have addressed the position again. The winner of this job is sure to be productive and has big upside. Seattle is in dire need of someone to step up at the position and they don't care how long that guy has been in the NFL. Chad Brown is nearing the end of his career, but then everyone has been saying that for a couple of years now and he just keeps going. He is 34 and has been playing through a painful foot injury for the past 2 seasons. He's the defensive version of Steve McNair in that he's listed as questionable almost every week but rarely misses a game. Don't count on him as a starter but he worthy as a solid backup.

Baltimore Ravens - There is no doubt Ray Lewis is the premier defensive player in the fantasy game. That said, expect him to fall back toward the pack a little this year. The defense has returned to elite status which will inevitably take away a few opportunities due to fewer snaps, and there are some guys (IE Donnie Edwards and LaVar Arrington) who are likely to close the gap a little themselves. Fellow ILB Ed Hartwell is a guy who is tough to draft coming off last year's 68 tackle performance but if Lewis goes down again everyone in your league will be scrambling to pick him up. Don't forget he posted 100+ a couple of years back when Lewis was injured. If you have room on the roster he's a lottery ticket that could be a big winner. The one possible weakness in the Ravens armor is at OLB where it doesn't look like Peter Boulware is going to be ready for the opener. In fact the word is he will probably play sparingly all season. The team is deep at the position with Adalius Thomas and Cornell Brown who are plenty good enough to help take pressure off second year stud Terrell Suggs. Don't be surprised if the youngster challenges for the league sack title this year as a starter after posting 11 as a part timer last season. Too bad he will never be good for more than 60 tackles at best.

Cincinnati Bengals - When the Bengals added Nate Webster in free agency no one made a big deal about it but it may prove to be one of the best signings of '04. Webster is a good fit for the scheme in that he is big and physical and does an excellent job of fighting through blockers at the point of attack and making the play. He's the first true middle linebacker the Bengals have had since Steve Tovar. Just how much fantasy impact Webster will have remains to be seen but chances are good that he will at least be a quality fantasy backup and the potential is certainly there for much bigger things. The other question now becomes what impact will Webster have on Brian Simmons? Simmons has never been a stud but always manages to put up serviceable numbers and is the teams playmaker at the position. The presence of Webster will solidify the run D which will allow Simmons more freedom to roam and Lewis more options to use his athleticism. I see this situation as being very similar to the one in Buffalo last year where London Fletcher proved to be the solid consistent tackle machine while Spikes scored slightly higher overall based on several big plays. As mentioned earlier Kevin Hardy will return to his natural OLB position and serve as a situational pass rusher with little fantasy value.

Cleveland Browns - What a mess this situation has become. You almost need a program to keep up with who is the most recently injured of the Browns backers. At the moment only Chaun Thompson (broken wrist) is not practicing but that has done little to clear the muddy water. There are basically 4 guys fighting for 2 positions with the only "sure thing" being MLB Andra Davis. Meanwhile the rest of the depth chart currently looks like this, Warrick Holdman at WLB and Chaun Thompson at SLB with last years starters Kevin Bentley and Ben Taylor as backups. Taylor is currently working with the first team in Thompson's absence but hasn't "officially" taken over the starting job. The bottom line here is that Davis is the only sure fantasy option of the group. Thompson has a ton of potential but will never produce well from the strong side, Taylor and Bentley are very injury prone and Holdman hasn't been the same since blowing out his knee year before last. One thing to keep in mind here however, is that the Browns WLB position produced almost 120 solo tackles a year ago and at this point Holdman looks like the guy.

Pittsburgh Steelers - Its been a couple of years now since the Steelers has a pair of stud OLBs for their 3-4 scheme. Gildon lost a step as the years began to show and Joey Porter has missed that complimentary guy on the other side. It's hard to tell at this point if its going to get better this year. Alonzo Jackson is set to take over the starting role after Gildon's departure and Clark Haggans injury. As a rookie, Jackson spent much of last season in the trainers room and never had an opportunity to show that he was worthy of a second round pick. The OLBs in the Steelers scheme don't make many tackles (usually in the 50's) but have some value in leagues weighted toward sacks. The important tidbit here is the plan to pull James Farrior from the nickel package, basically making him a 2 down player. This is great news for Kendrell Bell who will certainly benefit. Farrior held the job last season because the team wanted to lighten Bell's load due to concerns about the ankle injury that had hampered him for most of 2 years. The ankle is completely healed now and Bell is poised for a big year. The other side of this is that a lot of people will go way too early on Farrior counting on a repeat of last years solid production.

Defensive Backs

Generally speaking safeties are the best fantasy options when it comes to DBs. Corners often have good overall numbers come the end of the season but those numbers can be misleading in that corners are generally very inconsistent from year to year and/or week to week. There are 2 main exceptions to this general rule. On teams that play a cover 2 base defense corners are often responsible for run support and short "underneath" routs while the safeties play off the ball and are responsible for deep coverage. Tampa Bay and Indy are two clubs who play a cover 2 base defense and Detroit is among the clubs who use it often, which explains why Nick Harper, Ronde Barber and Dre' Bly are among the best fantasy options at corner. The other exception is what Bob and I call the "rookie corner rule", which is simply the fact that offensive coordinators go after inexperienced (rookie) corners like sharks to chum. Guys like DeAngelo Hall and Dunta Robinson who are going to start right away will probably be very effective this year but have very little long term value.

Buffalo Bills - One of this years most interesting training camp battles for the Bills will be at free safety where incumbent Izell Reese will battle third year man Coy Wire. Wire lost the starting SS job last year just days before the season opener when the Bills signed Lawyer Milloy. The Milloy signing was particularly surprising considering Wire had been so impressive down the stretch as a rookie in '02. Reese is certainly not a special player and Wire will be give every opportunity to prove he can successfully make the transition to FS. He is a natural at SS and not perfectly suited for FS, but is simply too talented to leave on the bench for another year. Wire will undoubtedly inherit the SS job at some point and his fantasy value will leap when that happens. For now consider him a long shot who may be worth a flyer very late in your draft. One of the problems with the Bills defense over the years has been lack of big play production from the secondary. They are annually in the bottom third in interceptions. Last season Winfield was a tackle machine but there is no one on the current roster with his balls to the wall mentality and love of contact. The team hopes Troy Vincent can help in the big play department but none of the corners are going to approach Winfield's tackle production.

Miami Dolphins - Sammy Knight was somewhat of a disappointment last year in both NFL and FFL terms but don't make the mistake of thinking he is all washed up at 28. There are several factors pointing toward a strong bounce back season for him. First consider the fact that the Miami offense is fresh out of weapons and will struggle to put together sustained drives, which means more time on the field for a defense that has its own questions to answer. Then look at the aging linebackers in front of him in Junior Seau (35) and Zach Thomas (31) who suddenly has injury concerns. Take into consideration that Knight will move from FS to SS with Brock Marion moving on which will put him closer to the line and give him more run support duties. Lastly consider that Knight was coming on in '03 as the season wore on. Over the last 7 weeks of the season he posted 40 solo tackles and 2 of his 3 interceptions. It took him a while to adjust to the new system after spending the first 7 years of his career as a Saint but Knight looked much more comfortable down the stretch. He could easily post 80+ tackles this year and is always a big play threat. Knight is about the only fantasy consideration among the Miami DBs unless your league requires corners. One interesting note, former Packer Antuan Edwards got the start at FS in the teams first preseason game over Arturo Freeman. Edwards was always somewhat productive when playing but oft injured while with Green Bay. Don't count on him for much.

New York Jets - 2003 was a very short season for the hard hitting Jon McGraw who trashed his collarbone and played in just 6 games. The Jets are loaded with talent in the front 7 which is likely to hold McGraw's potential in check, but keep in mind its a completely new scheme with several new starters so there will be growing pains. The Jets coaching staff is very high on McGraw for his speed, intimidating style and his big play potential (he had a pick in the first preseason game). He tried to return to action in week 11 last year and posted 8 solo tackles in little more than a half of play against the Colts before re-breaking the collarbone. He's a guy very worthy of keeping an eye on during the preseason and could be a value pick with a late round flyer in larger leagues. At the least he's a guy who will likely go undrafted that we should all be watching come week 1. SS Reggie Tongue is a slightly above average talent who could prosper in the right situation but isn't likely to make a big splash in this situation. He is however an upgrade over last years starter Sam Garnes and should post slightly better numbers than his predecessor.

Baltimore Ravens - The Ravens D has been rebuilt into a unit that rivals their Super Bowl teams. Which is both honey and poison to Ed Reed's fantasy career. The better the defense gets, the fewer snaps they are on the field and the fewer opponents get into the secondary. On the other hand when teams can't get runners past the linebackers they have to throw which creates big play opportunity. This is the dilemma with Reed. He only posted 59 solo tackles last year with 2 or fewer in 6 games, and failed to make a tackle all together in week 17 against the Steelers. He also racked up 7 picks and a sack on the season... The moral of the story; If your league is total points format Reed is gold but in head to head leagues he can me more like Russian roulette, especially come playoff time. Reed went 5-4-0 over a three game span starting in week 15. I'm not trying to suggest to anyone that he's not a good fantasy option, just suggesting you look at how well he fits your scoring before you treat him as a top 5 DB. With all the talent around him and the stiff competition for tackles, FS Will Demps will have a tough time making a fantasy impact.

Cincinnati Bengals - The Bengals secondary added a lot of talent this offseason and will be much improved. However the only real fantasy value in the group is SS Rogers Beckett. Beckett didn't land the starting job last year until week 9 when he posted 12 solo tackles against Arizona. From that point on he was a very solid contributor posting a mark of 45-8-3 with a picks over the final 9 games. The Bengals like to bring him on safety blitz's and he is a very sure tackler. Beckett only signed a 1 year deal with the team so he is playing for his football future and should continue to be productive. Kim Herring on the other hand was a free agent addition that is large only in name. Herring has contributed to some excellent defenses and has a couple of rings but neither the Rams nor Ravens made any effort to keep him around once his contract was up. In short he's a smart player who doesn't make a lot of mistakes but doesn't make many special plays either. He'll make more impact in the locker room this year than in the box scores. Dynasty owners should mark Madieu Williams as a player to watch. The teams second round pick is likely to be starting at one of the safety positions come next year.

Cleveland Browns - There is no team in the league in more dire need of a talent infusion in the the secondary than the Cleveland Browns. Robert Griffith who has been missing big tackles from time to time over the past couple of years appears to be over the hill and Earl Little is an overachieving journeyman type who has never been much more than adequate. Neither of these guys hold much fantasy value though both might be considered for depth in larger leagues. The corners are not all that bad in NFL terms but neither has any serious fantasy value. The one guy worth mention here is rookie Sean Jones. The club was very high on Jones heading toward training camp and there was wide speculation he would replace one of the starters. Unfortunately he never made it to camp before injuring his knee. Chances are he won't play much if at all this season but the club hasn't put him on IR yet. Dynasty league owners might want to tuck this kid away on your roster for safe keeping, he could make a big splash in '05.