Eyes of the Guru: Preseason Report, Part 2
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Posted 9/2 by John Norton, Exclusive to Footballguys.com
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Defensive Line
Miami Dolphins - A quick hitter here on the news of Adewale Ogunleye's
trade to Chicago. David Bowens and Jay Williams will contend for the vacated
starting job but the real story here is that the Fins are paper thin at the
position and have NO ONE left to take any heat off Jason Taylor. Drop Taylor
a few slots on your list with this news as the loss of Ogunleye will allow offenses
to game plan against Taylor. He'll see double teams on probably 95% of all passing
downs this year. Those of you in team defense leagues need to drop the Miami
D several notches as well. Look for the Fins to be scanning the waiver wire
the rest of the preseason for help but don't count on them finding much. No
one is going to cut a quality DE. I wonder if they have already been on the
phone with Kenny Holmes?
Dallas Cowboys - Parcells turned the Cowboys defense around last season
but was still unhappy with the overall production of his DL. Bringing in Marcellus
Wiley to play left end could go a long way toward making the coach happy. Wiley
is a very talented player who is capable of double digit sacks if he can stay
healthy. He's been fighting a sore groin for most of the past two seasons which
all but relegated him to being a part time guy. When he did play full time Wiley
just wasn't the same player who put up 13 sacks for the Chargers in '01. Parcells
has a way of making his players forget their nagging injuries and giving it
their best, so don't overlook Wiley late in your draft. He's a risk but but
could pay off. The addition of Wiley should be a boost for Greg Ellis who has
been in need of someone to share the heat over the past couple of years. Ellis
is a quality every down player who has seen his tackle numbers take a beating
due to constant double teams. Dallas simply hasn't had anyone else that offense's
had to worry about. He isn't a great pass rusher but is above average and can
be counted on for between 7-10 sacks and 40+ tackles. A good #2 DL or excellent
#3 that comes with very little risk. In 2000 when La'Roi Glover was in New Orleans
he put up a phenomenal 53-12-17. Unfortunately those days are far in the past
and Glover's production has steadily declined since. The past two years in Dallas
have produced just 69 tackles and 11.5 sacks. There is no reason to expect a
big turnaround. Leonardo Carson is penciled in at the other tackle but isn't
likely to make much impact.
New York Giants - Talking about a club going from the penthouse to the
outhouse in a hurry.. Two years ago the G-Men had a very good defense and one
of the better defensive lines in the game. Now they have Michael Strahan at
one end, an unproven second year guy at the other end in Osi Tinoisamoa and
a couple of tackles claimed off the scrap heap in Fred Robbins and Norman Hand.
Strahan is the only sure fantasy option of this group. No matter who is around
him he always manages to put up double digit sacks and 40+ solo tackles. Don't
expect him to come close to his sack record though, in fact he may be hard pressed
to reach 14 this year since offenses will be able to concentrate on getting
him blocked. Tinoisamoa should be considered for your sleeper list. It seems
that playing opposite Strahan is very good for anyone's numbers. Chad Bratzke
put up career best sacks while with the Giants and so did Kenny Holmes. Keith
Washington is officially listed as starter but he has about as much chance of
making an impact as I do. Washington will at best be a 2 down player with Tinoisamoa
playing in any situation that might matter to us and likely full time once the
season starts. Giants tackles have a history of being somewhat productive but
then the Giants have a history of having better tackles. Hand and Robbins are
stop gaps and nothing more. William Joseph (pectoral) may return sometime after
mid season but probably won't play full time at all this year.
Philadelphia Eagles - There must be some kind of "Kearse"
on the Eagles defensive line. Over the past two years they have been simply
hammered with injuries and the string of bad luck continues with the season
ending knee injury to ND Kalu who was listed as the official starter at the
time. Jevon Kearse is a huge addition if he can finally beat the nagging foot
injury that has slowed him since his sophomore campaign. Kearse has already
missed time in camp with an ankle sprain but so far the foot has held up. He's
a risk until proven healthy but in the Eagles system could put up monster numbers.
Second year man Jerome McDougle was anointed starter early in the preseason
but has missed a lot of time during camp with a shoulder injury. He recently
returned to practice and is expected to play a lot in the clubs second preseason
game. The injury to Kalu hands the starting job back to McDougle and leaves
the Eagles looking to add help at the position. They have reportedly spoken
with the Kenny Holmes camp. McDougle was a first round pick last year but missed
nearly the entire season with a slow healing ankle sprain. He's a big risk,
big reward sleeper in an excellent situation. All that remains to be seen is
if he can stay on the field and live up to expectations. Derrick Burgess is
officially next on the depth chart but keep an eye on Jamaal Green who is still
a bit raw but has drawn praise from the coaching staff. Tackles Corey Simon
and Darwin Walker are productive for tackles and could be considered for depth
in large leagues. Walker could even see time at end with the injuries.
Washington Redskins - Joe Gibbs didn't waste any time when he took over
the Redskins. He immediately went to work rebuilding a defense that had been
decimated from lack of interest by the offensive minded Spurrier regime. Gibbs
biggest challenge was to add some talent along the DL where quality players
are tough to find in free agency and come at a premium. The Skins managed to
bolster the line with the additions of DE Phillip Daniels and DT Cornelius Griffin,
two guys who represent a marked improvement but aren't enough to completely
turn the tide. Daniels is a solid every down player who is good against the
run and capable of 7-8 sacks if things go well but has limited upside. Griffin
is a very good addition who could lead the DL in tackles but has never put up
more than 5 sacks in a season and won't start now. Tackle Joe Salaeve'a is a
serviceable player with no fantasy potential and end Renaldo Wynn is barely
even serviceable. Wynn has averaged just 2.5 sacks a year over his 7 year career
and had a career high 31 tackles in '00. Gibbs will undoubtedly be looking for
a stud DE when this season is over. If your in a real large league Daniels or
Griffin might make a decent backup.
Chicago Bears - The big news out of Bears camp is the recent trade for
DE Adewale Ogunleye. At this point its hasn't been announced which side he will
line up on but he was the LDE in Miami and one has to wonder if the Bears recent
move of Michael Haynes to RDE was in anticipation of this deal. Ogunleye has
set the ladder for himself very high after last years success and we have seen
over and over through the years that changing teams/systems can have a big impact.
I remain high on him going into the regular season but the change of scenery
certainly adds a little risk that wouldn't have been there in Miami. On the
bright side, at least we know he is going to play. No one in Chicago was going
to miss any sleep over the departure of Phillip Daniels even before the trade.
In fact the writing was on the wall when the team drafted Michael Haynes in
the first round last year. The club looked into adding a veteran pass rusher
in free agency but were unwilling to swallow the high price tag for the caliber
of players that were available. Their initial stand was that they were happy
with the guys they had. Their hand may have been forced a little by an injury
to Alex Brown that no one has been talking about. All I know about it at this
point is that he didn't play in the teams second preseason game because of what
ever it is. Haynes played sparingly as a rookie but was an outstanding pass
rusher in college and looked good when called upon last season. Between he and
Ogunleye the Bears now have a very formidable pair of starters. Alex Brown will
be relegated to the #3 guy and gives the club excellent depth. The move makes
a strength out of a position that was considered questionable. Haynes was drafted
to be an every down guy so his tackle numbers should be at least fairly good.
He's an unproven guy but is talented, smart and in an excellent situation. At
worst he should make a good backup with major upside and he could emerge as
a stud. The Bears two rookie tackles are being counted on to make a big impact
right away. Tommie Harris has been projected by many close to the team as an
opening day starter, with Tank Johnson working in the rotation. At this point
however neither is working as a starter and Johnson is said to be having a better
camp. The bottom line here is that both these guys will be starting at some
point early in their careers. Harris is the most likely to become a fantasy
option and reminds me a little of a young La'Roi Glover. He's more agile and
a better pass rusher. Johnson is more of a Sam Adams/Ted Washington type who
is important to the defense but not much impact in the box scores. Take a late
round shot on Harris if you feel the need or maybe tuck him away on a taxi squad.
Detroit Lions - The Robert Porcher era has finally come to an end in
Detroit. He will be with the club this year but has surrendered his starting
job to James Hall after 12 seasons. The Lions have quietly put together a very
solid defensive line over the past couple of years. Hall has become a quality
every down player though he isn't a particularly strong pass rusher. Hall is
very strong against the run and it showed in his numbers last season (48 solo
tackles, 4.5 sacks). Kalimba Edwards will be counted on heavily to provide the
rush. He was looking very good late in his rookie season ('02) but was mostly
a non factor last year as he was slow to recover from a sports hernia operation.
The weak '03 numbers will likely cause Edwards to fall into the late rounds
of your draft where he could be a real steal. Hall could post upwards of 50
tackles and could be counted on as a good backup in most leagues. DT Shaun Rogers
bounced back some last season after missing much of '02 with nagging injuries.
He's a guy to put on your watch list however considering as a healthy rookie
in '01 he racked up 60 solo tackles. Rogers can be a pass rush factor as well
if he keeps his weight under control (which he struggled with so far in his
career). If your league starts tackles as a separate position he should be near
the top of your list. Dan Wilkinson fills the other tackle position but has
very little fantasy potential. He has never posted more than 30 tackles in a
season. One guy to keep an eye on is Corey Redding. He was originally drafted
to play tackle but is very versatile and has been working at both tackle and
end during camp. Should he be moved to end he would need to shed a few pounds
but could prosper.
Green Bay Packers - Defensive end was a need that went unaddressed by
the Packers over the offseason. Joe Johnson was a free agent bust who was released,
Chukie Nwokorie continues to battle with his surgically repaired knee and is
on the bubble and former first round pick Jamal Reynolds was a bust that the
team finally gave up on. That leaves Aaron Kampman to inherit the starting job
opposite Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila. Kampman is heading into his third season and
is realistically little more than a solid backup at the NFL level. He could
be pushed for playing time by rookie 6th round pick Corey Williams who might
also see action on early downs in place of KGB. The bottom line here is that
KGB is the only real fantasy option of this group and his numbers could suffer
from the lack of talent on the other end. His numbers have slipped steadily
since '01 when he posted a career high 13.5 and he will slip into single digits
this year if the trend continues. Gbaja-Biamila isn't going to challenge for
the sack title but he does provide steady dependable production and will continue
to make a decent #2 DL. He could actually get a boost if Williams plays in his
place on running downs so he can stay fresh for rushing the passer. That was
the setup in '01. Grady Jackson and Cletidus Hunt will handle the tackle positions
and are solid if unspectacular players. Jackson has some value if he can keep
his weight down. He gets after the passer well for a big man and could be good
for 40+ tackles and 6-7 sacks.
Minnesota Vikings - This club is going to be very young in the front
7 but has assembled a great deal of talent. First round pick Kenechi Udeze will
be an immediate starter and should make a huge impact. He was the top DE in
this years draft and joins a group that has enough talent to keep offenses honest.
No one is going to be able to concentrate on shutting down Udeze with Chris
Hovan and Kevin William to deal with. Udeze is obviously unproven but has the
potential to post numbers similar to those of Jevon Kearse as a rookie (15 sacks).
Udezi should lead all rookies in sacks and double digits are expected. Keep
an eye on the other DE position as well where the team has been very impressed
with 3rd round pick Darrion Scott. Kenny Mixon currently holds the position
and will figure significantly into the mix but Scott may earn the starting job
at some point during the season. If it were not for the concerns of starting
rookies on both ends this battle might be even closer during camp. Don't be
sucked in by Kevin Williams big rookie production. Many if not most of his production
came while he was being used at end. Once he moved inside the sack and especially
the tackle production tailed off. He is still likely to lead all tackles in
sacks but don't count on more than about 36 tackles and 8 or so sacks. Not bad
but not worthy of where someone is probably going to take him in your draft.
Chris Hovan is a big factor in the defense but unfortunately his contributions
don't show up big in the box scores.
Linebacker
Dallas Cowboys - When the Tuna took over there was wide speculation
that he would be doing major house cleaning at LB since "none of the linebackers
fit his style". That was true to an extent however Bill has taken a real
liking to MLB Dat Nguyen and has "adopted" him as a Parcells guy.
In the past Nguyen has put up good consistent tackle numbers but the scheme
had all but shut down any big play potential he might have had. The new scheme
has changed all that. Over the first 4 years of his career Nguyen accounted
for just 2 sacks and 5 passes defended. Last year he had 2 sacks and defended
11 passes along with forcing and recovering 2 fumbles. He will never be Ray
Lewis but Nguyen will get even better in his second year in the system. He will
be undervalued in most drafts and should make a very good third starter. Dexter
Coakley managed to keep the WLB job through last season but isn't a real good
fit in the system. Parcells likes big "head bustin'" physical linebackers
and Coakley is a speed and finesse guy. He is currently in a heated competition
with second year man Bradie James and James is likely to come out on top since
he is 243 pounds and is a "Parcells guy". Avoid Coakley all together
and stash James away on your deep sleeper list. He could be a real surprise.
New York Giants - Last season saw a pair of Giants linebackers put up
big numbers, particularly down the stretch when injuries had decimated the team
and the players had all but quit. The only difference heading into this season
is that the LB's won't have to wait for injuries to decimate the team, the front
office has already done the job. There are few teams in the league with weaker
overall talent on defense than the Giants. Both WLB Dhani Jones (93 solo tackles)
and MLB Mike Barrow (113) have moved on, replaced by Barrett Green at WLB and
so far Nick Greisen at MLB. Green is an above average player that is just as
good if not better than Jones and could easily improve on Jones's production.
Griesen on the other hand is a special teams guy who isn't the same caliber
player as Barrow by any stretch. He looked bad in the preseason opener and there
is wide speculation that the club will be scanning the waiver wire for an upgrade.
Whom ever gets the call here will have great potential but the team doesn't
have much cap room to go searching and they have even less depth.
Philadelphia Eagles - When the Eagles added Jeremiah Trotter the official
word was that he would serve as the backup to Mark Simoneau at MLB and play
in the short yardage and goal line packages. I for one am not buying this story
completely. Its not a big secret that the organization was not satisfied with
the return on their investment in WLB Nate Wayne last season and now Wayne is
missing action significant action with a hamstring injury. Factor in that Simoneau
is a natural WLB playing out of position in the middle to begin with, and there
might just be writing between the lines here. If things do remain as advertised
none of the Philly LB's are likely to make a big fantasy impact. Simoneau is
the best option and was really getting comfortable with the new position late
in the '03 season but sharing time would certainly hurt. Wayne is injury prone
and was disappointing last year. Even if he does hold onto the job he's no better
than adequate depth. Trotter put up good numbers last time he was with Philly
but even if he does end up with the MLB job he will be a 2 down player coming
off the field in passing situations. Consider Simoneau a late round sleeper
with good upside but I would avoid the rest until we see how this all pans out.
Washington Redskins - Patience is finally going to pay off for all of
those dynasty owners who have been sitting on LaVar Arrington all this time.
When he was the second overall pick in 2000 everyone thought he was going to
put up Ray Lewis type numbers. Then the bomb hit that he was going to be "sentenced"
to the SLB position; and our hearts dropped. For the last 4 seasons Arrington
has put up useful but not great numbers which is actually impressive considering
the limitations of the position. Washington finally has a coach smart enough
to move Arrington to WLB where he can make more plays. For the first 3 years
of his career he was overvalued based on expectations and now he will likely
be undervalued based on history. I believe Arrington will be a top 5 LB this
year yet I was able to get him as the 13 LB taken in the Gridiron Grumblings
experts league (Round 12). Arrington just suffered what is currently being called
a "minor knee sprain". Nothing more is available as of press time.
Some might argue that Mike Barrow will steal a lot of Arrington's tackles. Let
me point out that Barrow is 34 years old and is currently nursing a bum knee
and a strained quad. Yes Barrow piled up 113 solo tackles last year but he's
not in Kansas anymore Toto. Barrow still has some game but his huge production
was due largely to the Giants total defensive collapse. 50 of those tackles
came over the final six weeks of the season. He should be a good #3 starter
this year but don't expect Barrow to approach last years numbers. Marcus Washington
was brought in to take over at SLB. He is one of the better players in the league
at that position because he is not only strong at the point of attack but can
cover the TE and rush the passer as well. He isn't going to be as productive
as Arrington was in this role but should chip in enough sacks to be a good backup.
Chicago Bears - Early on the buzz out of Chicago was that the scheme
had been tweaked to reemphasize the talents of Brian Urlacher after his down
year in '03. Just when it looked safe to put him back in your top 5 the came
up lame with a hamstring injury. Urlacher is expected to be back sometime around
week 3 but the injury is fairly serious and hamstrings are notoriously slow
to heal and easy to re-injure once the problem exists. Urlacher's value for
this year takes a major beating with these developments but then on the other
hand, it might be a good time for dynasty owners to go trade for him. There
are currently mixed reports about how the Bears will compensate for the loss.
Most sources agree that Lance Briggs has been moved into the MLB job until Urlacher
has recovered but there have been reports that Second year man Hunter Hillenmeyer
has been seeing some time with the first team at MLB with Briggs going back
to weakside. The important point here is that Briggs is going to be in a productive
position with either scenario. Briggs demonstrated some fantasy prowess last
year at times including a 9 solo game against the Chargers in week 9. A healthy
Urlacher makes Briggs no more than a decent backup but he could be big at the
beginning of the campaign and could last longer than expected if Urlacher's
recover drags on. Keep an eye on the Hillenmeyer thing just to be safe but don't
read too much into it.
Detroit Lions - Not a lot has been resolved with the LB situation in
Detroit yet and the second preseason game didn't do much to help. All we can
say for sure at this point is that Boss Bailey isn't going to be a factor until
mid season or later if at all, as he recovers from having his knee scoped and
cartilage repaired. Against the Browns the starting lineup was Donte Curry at
SLB, James Davis at WLB and Earl Holmes in the middle. Both outside backers
looked pretty good while Holmes looked slow and old. This showed in the box
scores as well with Holmes recording just 1 tackle despite seeing extensive
action in the first half. When rookie Teddy Lehman got his chance the whole
D seemed to pick it up a notch. Lehman wasn't flawless and made some mistakes
but the speed and physical presence was easy to see, not to mention he posted
5 solo stops. It will be a big surprise if Lehman isn't in the lineup come opening
day. The kid will be learning on the fly but there is little doubt he is an
improvement over Holmes. Look for both Lehman and Davis to be productive fantasy
options this season with Lehman having potential to go large. Davis will probably
be the better "deal" as he could be just as productive but doesn't
come with the big name and will likely be available very late. One note to this;
Davis was dinged in the second quarter and did not return to action. Be sure
to look for news on the injury before drafting or picking him up.
Minnesota Vikings - Minnesota will go with a pair of first time starters
at linebacker this year. MLB E.J. Henderson saw enough action last year to convince
the coaching staff he could get the job done and to convince me that he is going
to be a fantasy stud. I have been watching this guy since his senior year at
Maryland. He brings size, talent and intensity to a position/situation that
has been very fantasy friendly in years past. Last season Henderson shared the
MLB duties with declining starter Greg Biekert and between them the position
produced 89-22-1. With Henderson in on every down he should be closer to the
100 solo mark this year. Rookie Dontarrious Thomas was on the verge of passing
Mike Nattiel for the WLB job even before Nattiel was injured. Thomas is raw
but has a great motor and plenty of talent. He'll make some mistakes and take
some licks but his athleticism will keep him on the field. I expect Henderson
to be the top dog here but Thomas could emerge as a quality fantasy option as
well. Chris Claiborne is over rated in most circles. He couldn't make a big
impact in a great situation when he was with the Lions so he surely won't make
much noise from the Vikings strong side position.
Defensive Back
Dallas Cowboys - After a stellar rookie season in '02 Roy Williams was
almost a bust in '03. There were several contributing factors to his box score
crash, new scheme, different position and better defense in general pretty much
covers them all. The Dallas D was on the field 142 fewer snaps in '03 than in
'02. That alone tells most of the story. Williams moved to FS last year where
he lined up deeper in the secondary and saw much less run support duty. He is
however a big play guy as well as an intimidator so look for him to rebound
some. With this being his second year in the system, the Scheme will open up
a little more and the coaches will be looking for ways to take advantage of
Williams playmaking ability. Don't expect him to come close to his rookie tackle
production but the rest should come back in time. The talent is still there
so consider him a quality option as a #2 DB or an excellent #3 with a lot of
upside. I have been in several drafts this year where guys have taken Terence
Newman way too high. Remember the "rookie corner rule"? He was productive
last year as a rook but now he has some experience and offenses are soon going
to start respecting him as one of the top corners in the league, which means
they will stop picking on him and start avoiding him instead. The other warning
sign here is the struggles of Pete Hunter at the other corner. Parcells has
made it known that he will be looking for "better options" when the
cuts start coming. If you think offenses won't avoid Newman and pick on the
"weak sister" you better think again. Dallas is also looking for help
at SS where long time starter Darren Woodson is getting old and struggling with
injuries. The club is not happy with the play of Tony Dixon in his place and
will likely add someone. You can bet they were on the phone when Ifeanyi Ohalete
his waivers but the Lions are ahead in the pecking order.
New York Giants - Keep the name Shaun Williams handy come draft day
this year. Williams missed much of last year with a season ending injury but
is now back at full speed. He is traditionally a solid consistent producer,
good for around 80 solo tackles and a hand full of big plays each year. With
the mess in the front 7 this season Williams could very well post career high
numbers and should easily approach 90 solo's. There is a competition going on
for the FS position between incumbent Omar Stoutmire and former Steeler starter
Brent Alexander. Stoutmire is a very average journeyman who had never held a
starting job beyond preseason in his career until the desperate Giants found
themselves out of options last year. So far the official depth chart still has
Stoutmire as starter but the two have been sharing time with the first team.
I will be very surprised if Alexander doesn't emerge from camp with this job.
Alexander is not a stud himself, rather he is a smart player and solid contributor
who doesn't make a lot of mistakes or miss many tackles. The Giants secondary
is going to be making a lot of tackles this year so slip Alexander in as a very
late round sleeper. Don't expect much from the Giants corners this year, there
is no reason for teams to pass when they can run the ball all day.
Philadelphia Eagles - The nature of the Eagles scheme tends to hold
down the consistency if not the overall production of their secondary. SS Michael
Lewis led the charge with an unimpressive 67 solo tackles in '03 including 7
games with 3 or fewer solos. To his credit he did contribute 3 picks, 2 sacks
and a fumble recovery along the way. Owners in total points leagues will want
to put more value on Lewis but for the rest of us he should be considered quality
depth. FS Brian Dawkins brings a very similar resume' with the exception that
he tends to miss a lot of action with injuries on top of being inconsistent.
He has played a full 16 games just twice in his 8 year career, has never reached
70 solo tackles, never produced more than 4 picks (5 combined over the past
3 years) and is often very over rated in fantasy circles. Eagle corners are
big play threats but don't produce enough tackles to have any value. Neither
of last years starter reached the 50 mark.
Washington Redskins - Sean Taylor is the big story in Washington this
year. The rookie comes with huge expectations and proceeded to pour gas on the
fire with 2 interceptions and a score in his first preseason game. This kid
needs to mature some to be a complete player but he is the real deal. I rank
him in the top 5 going into the season and am very comfortable with it. I believe
He could end up leading the league in picks as a rookie. On the side of surprise,
the teams recent release of Ifeanyi Ohalete means that Matt Bowen has locked
up the SS job. Bowen was a good late season pickup for fantasy owners last year
and could have some value here even with all the competition for tackles. His
upside is limited though. Newcomer Shawn Springs will start at left corner opposite
Fred Smoot. Smoot has emerged as one of the leagues better cover men so teams
may look to avoid him. Springs has been fairly productive in the past and tends
to make a lot of tackles for a corner. He has struggled with nagging injuries
over the past few years though.
Chicago Bears - Second year corner Charles Tillman will be over valued
in many drafts based on his excellent production as a rookie. Much like Terrence
Newman of the Cowboys, Tillman is highly unlikely to repeat that level of production.
The rookie corner rule applies and the fact that Tillman is heading into his
second year means his numbers will begin to steadily drop. Actually the Bears
entire secondary is situation comes with a lot of risk this year. Mike Brown
is settled at the FS position but his value has fallen considerably over the
past three years. Some owners still remember his monster 2000 season but Brown
has been very mediocre ever since. SS Mike Green led the league in tackles among
DBs back in '02 with a mark of 100-29-1 but then missed most of last season
with injury. The Bears continue to feed us the line that he is on the verge
of being replaced by Bobby Gray. I for one don't buy that for a second. Gray
has had all the opportunity in the world to shine and hasn't won the job yet.
Green on the other hand was given a juicy new LONG TERM contract last year and
is finally healthy. The word is that he may play the nickel back position in
pass coverage due to the injury to Jerry Azumah. This could have a little negative
impact on his overall production but probably not much. In short Green has a
definite risk factor but the payoff could be very big and all the signs look
good for him despite the lip music coming from the talking heads in the organization.
Best of all, most owners will not even be looking at him after last years poor
overall numbers.
Detroit Lions - Keep an eye on FS Terrence Holt heading into the season.
He turned heads last year with his play and versatility. Holt got the start
against the Browns as Brock Marion sat out with a shoulder injury. There has
been speculation all along that Marion would be moved to SS to make room for
Holt in the lineup. Holt didn't show up real big in the game stats but made
a significant impact on the field. It is going to be tough to keep him and his
big play potential on the sideline. One thing that could spell inconsistency
problems for him in the tackle department however, is the teams substantial
use of a cover 2 scheme. Marion is a solid player near the end of his career
and isn't likely to make a big fantasy impact in this scheme regardless of which
safety position he plays. He isn't a big play guy and the system just doesn't
promote great tackle production. I can't remember the last Lions safety to post
70 solo stops but it hasn't happened in the past few years. Lions corners are
notoriously strong fantasy options. Dre' Bly was huge last year and Chris Cash
was among the top tacklers at DB in '02. The only thing that concerns me with
Bly at this point is the great inconsistency in general that comes with the
corner position. Every year there are a handful of them in the top 20 but the
next season it seems those guys are forgotten and there are a handful of different
ones up there. In general I will avoid corners like the plague in the draft
and if needed, pick one up during the season once we see which ones are going
to produce.
Green Bay Packers - Its looking like Mark Roman is pulling away from
Marques Anderson in their battle for the starting job at Strong safety. The
Packers SS position is traditionally a very productive one from the tackle perspective.
Anderson and the departed Antuan Edwards combined to total 97-28-2 last year
from the position so the winner of this battle certainly has a lot of potential.
The other important fact here is that the Packers have apparently decided to
scrap the earlier reported idea of moving Darren Sharper back to SS. This is
going to put a little damper on his tackle production and consistency but will
be a big plus for his big play potential and doesn't hurt his overall value.
When Sharper last played SS he produced 84 solo tackles but only 3 interceptions,
his lowest pick total since moving to FS is 5 which came last year when he played
hurt early in the season. He had 4 of those 5 picks in the final 6 games of
the season.
Minnesota Vikings - Last years top 12 fantasy DB list included 3 Vikings.
SS Corey Chavous, FS Brian Russell and CB Brian Williams all had stellar seasons
that included a phenomenal number of interception's (23) and tackles (221) between
them. Anyone who thinks this group can repeat that kind of production needs
to buy my seaside resort in Arizona. First of all the front 7, though young,
has added a tremendous amount of talent over last years starting group. There
will be a lot of improvement which directly means a lot fewer snaps for the
defense as well as a lot fewer ball carriers in the secondary. As if these points
aren't enough, the team added Antoine Winfield to the mix. All he did last year
was lead all corners with 94 solo stops. This group can still produce a lot
of interception and decent tackle numbers but there is still just one ball and
only so many opportunities to be had. They all have some fantasy value but ranking
them based on last year numbers would be a big mistake. Let someone else take
the plunge.
Since the decision of Red Eye Sports joining Football Guys came so late, I
am not going to be able to finish the Eyes of the Guru in this format in time
for it to be of much use to everyone. Heck most of us/you have already drafted
or will in the next few days. I will however be doing a weekly EOTG once the
season begins and plan to do at least one more before the season opens covering
any important news/analysis that may come about in the next two weeks. Next
year you can expect the complete team by team EOTG to hit the site at the beginning
of August. I want to thank FBG for the opportunity to become part of the team
and want to wish all of you the best of luck with your teams this season.
JUST WIN BABY!
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