IDP Sleepers - Week 11
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Posted 11/19 by John Norton, Exclusive to Footballguys.com
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Defensive Linemen
The Seahawks expect to have Grant Wistrom back in the
starting lineup this week just in time to face a Dolphins team in disarray.
Miami has already given up the second most sacks in the league at 33 and Seattle
is just looking for someone to beat up on. Wistrom is coming off the injury but
is expected to play in an every down role. His legs are fresh so barring a late
change of plan he should have a good game. Obviously Chike Okeafor also
looks good in this one.
The Falcons rank 28th in league with 30 sacks
allowed so both Osi Umenyiora and Lance Legree have the odds in
their favor. Umenyiora looks like a rising star at this point and is very nearly
to the point of being an every week guy. Legree is actually a tackle playing out
of position but had a strong week 10 outing. He's a long shot but its hard to
argue with the match up.
I have never been a Kevin Carter fan but
its hard to argue with his production (4 sacks) in the last two games. Carter
had been playing tackle most of the season before moving back to end in week 8.
The match up isn't a particularly strong one but its never a bad idea to go with
the hot hand.
Kalimba Edwards has been somewhat of a
mystery this year with his inconsistency. That said, he is seeing most of his
playing time in passing situations and even with Moss out the Vikings continue
to rely on the passing game. They are middle of the pack in sacks allowed but I
expect Edwards to see a lot of playing time in this one and it should translate
into production.
With Corey Simon expected to sit out Sam
Rayburn will get the start against Washington. The Skins offense is a big
question mark under a new QB so the match up value is somewhat unknown but
consider that Bengals tackles Langston Moore and Robert Geathers combined to go
4-0-2 while sharing time against the Skins last week while Rayburn has totaled 5
sacks on the year while playing a limited role. Rumor has it Rayburn was on the
verge of replacing Darwin Walker as a starter. He'll be looking to take another
step in that direction.
Chris Kelsay has overtaken Ryan Denny
for the starting job opposite Aaron Schobel and is slowly developing into a
decent fantasy option. He has a sacks in each of the past two weeks against
teams (Jets and Pats) that are generally very tough match ups for DE's. This
weeks opponent is the Rams who continue to struggle with pass protection.
Bad as it has been for the Niners the news that
Andre Carter is ready to return to the lineup is a big plus. Playing
Carter before he proves anything would certainly be a huge risk but the Bucks
are giving up an average of 3 sacks per game and Carter is the best pass rusher
the Niners have left.
Its been a few weeks since Calvin Pace
showed up with a decent box score but I have a hunch he could make an impact
this week. Karlos Dansby has been playing rush end in passing situations over
the Cardinals last three games which has basically cut Pace out of the picture.
With Dansby likely to sit this week due to injury, its my guess that Pace will
fill the role once again. It certainly doesn't hurt that Arizona is facing a
Giants club that has allowed a whopping 40 sacks to date, that's 7 more than
anyone else in the league. You can't blame all of that on Warner and changing to
Manning isn't going to help the guys up front with their blocking.
Linebackers
Not a great deal of introduction needed here. Hunter
Hillenmeyer moves back inside to take over for Brian Urlacher. He's not much
of a sleeper but is a guy who certainly belongs in the lineup this week.
The Steelers have 49 more rushing attempts than
any other club through week 10 and they proved last week that playing without
Staley isn't going to put a kink in their style. Bettis has had some of his
career best days against Cincinnati and Brian Simmons has had some very
strong games against Bettis. There isn't much trickery in the Steelers offense.
They just line up and try to push the D around. It will be a challenge for both
Simmons and rookie MLB Landon Johnson, both of whom should have very good
numbers in this one.
Na'il Diggs is one of those guys who is
very average on most weeks but blows up big about 3-4 times a season. He was off
to a good start last week with three tackles early before leaving the game with
a minor injury. He's good to go this week and facing a Houston team that is very
committed to the run as evident by their 34 rushing attempts in the blow out
loss to the Colts. Cato June went 11-2-0 in that game from the WLB position.
With all the injuries at LB in KC there won't
be many situational substitutions this week. Scott Fujita is the best
option of the group but don't be afraid of Kawika Mitchell either,
especially considering the match up. The Pats are riding Dillon and against the
Chiefs poor run D you can bet that trend won't be broken. Quentin Caver
will likely get the start at WLB and is a worthy consideration as well if your
in a tight spot. Monty Beisel looks likely to sit with his injury.
Tedy Bruschi and Ted Johnson
aren't guys you ever expect to hit double digit tackles in a game but if your
looking for a solid #3 starter who will contribute one of these guys should fill
the need. The Chiefs might be without Holmes, but then Blaylock ran 33 times for
186 yards last week. And they say its the scheme in Denver.... WLB Derrick
Rodgers, MLB Orlando Ruff and SS Jay Bellamy combined to make 22 solo stops in
that game.
These guys have a lot of risk but Demorrio
Williams and Matt Stewart have been on a roll of late, often at the
expense of Keith Brooking. Williams isn't even the official starter at MLB yet
but he is seeing a lot of time there and making a lot of plays. Stewart has 7 or
more solo stops in three of the Falcons last 4 games.
Jeremiah Trotter returned to the lineup
last week due to injuries and immediately made a positive impact on the running
game as well as in the box score. Trotter was a tackle machine as the Eagles
starter in the past and seems to have not missed a beat. I don't particularly
like the match up with the Skins weak offense but Trotter should be playing
every down with Nate Wayne and Mark Simoneau both expected to sit.
The way he has been putting up points over the
past few weeks Orlando Ruff is hardly a sleeper at this point and should
be an every week consideration in most leagues. He looks particularly inviting
this week against a Denver club that will be looking to establish Ruben Droughns.
The Saints are dead last against the run so look for 30-40 carries by Denver
backs in this one. Keep an eye on the situation at WLB. Rodgers isn't likely to
play this week but so far there has been no announcement about who will replace
him. Chances are it will be James Allen though Roger knight might
get the call. For that matter Courtney Watson could factor into the picture.
He's not 100% healthy but was active last week and could see action.
Isaiah Kacyvenski is the likely
replacement for Anthony Simmons this week and probably beyond. The Seattle LB
corps has been thinned considerably by injury leaving Kacyvenski and Chad Brown
the only healthy outside backers on the roster. The emergence of Willis McGahee
makes this a better match up than the statistics would imply, especially
considering the Seahawks recent offensive woes. If your reduced to desperate
measures consider Niko Koutivides as well. He has seen considerable
playing time of late and could see even more with all the injuries.
Kendrell Bell hasn't been named starter
yet but he saw a considerable increase in playing time last week and is very
close. If he doesn't start against Cincinnati he will certainly play a
significant role. What remains to be seen is if the Steelers are ready to turn
him loose as a pass rusher yet. Bell is an every week fantasy consideration when
healthy and could step up at any moment. He's a big risk at this point but could
bring a big payoff.
MLB Dan Morgan is out with another concussion
and Vinny Ciuriu is expected to make another start this week. Arizona
doesn't exactly make an exciting match up, especially with Emmitt gimpy or out
but Ciuriu may be even better with Troy Hambrick in the backfield. Hambrick
doesn't make anyone miss with his road grader running style.
Defensive Backs
Injuries continue to pile up on the Titans with the latest
being SS Tank Williams who is now gone for the season. Williams had been a
decent fantasy option much of this season and is expected to be replaced by
Donnie Nickey in the lineup. With Gerard at QB last week the Jags were
business as usual but they did rely a little heavier on the running game which
racked up 50 carries. The Titans front 7 is depleted and the team is struggling
so I expect Nickey and FS Lamont Thompson to have plenty of opportunity
in this one.
Mike Green and Todd Johnson have
a couple of things in their favor this week. The Colts offensive juggernaut
being the biggest one. Indy has been keeping safeties chasing the ball around
all season and that isn't likely to change this week. The second factor is the
loss of Brian Urlacher. Hillenmeyer is a good player but he's no Urlacher and
there are going to be a few more opportunities for the safeties to make plays
behind the rook.
Sammy Knight has once again fallen short
of expectation but he hasn't been a complete flop. The Miami offense has done
nothing to help the D stay off the field and I have to wonder if/when this unit
will pack it in. If they don't it speak volumes about the character of this
club. Knight has been good for about 5 tackles a week most of the season but I
expect to see his numbers creep up slowly down the stretch starting with this
weeks match up against the Seahawks and Shaun Alexander.
Browns new starting FS Chris Crocker has
been making a name for himself with his production since becoming the starter
(12-1-1 in 2 games) and could take another step toward fantasy recognition this
week against a Jets club that has proven to be a strong match up for opposing
safeties. In the past two weeks alone both Sammy Knight (6-3-0) and Ed Reed
(7-1-0) have posted their best tackle numbers of the season against the Jets.
Obviously Robert Griffith is also a strong consideration in this
situation.
Jon McGraw has had a lot of problems
staying on the field but tends to make a lot of box score noise when healthy.
He's expected to be back in the lineup this week against the Browns after
missing the last two games. This guy is a big risk big reward type. The Browns
are a middle of the road match up but then McGraw went 10-1-0 with a pick in a
terrible "on paper" match up with the Dolphins in week 8, so anything is
possible.
With or without Randy Moss the Vikings are
going to run the same pass oriented offense, which means FS Bracey Walker
corner Dre' Bly are likely in for a busy Sunday afternoon. Its not a
coincidence that Packers corner Ahmad Carroll (7-1-0) and FS Bhawoh Jue (7-2-0)
led the club in tackles against Minnesota last week.
There remains a serious risk factor in playing
Oakland SS Marques Anderson as the club has a tendency to do some strange
things with their safeties at times and Anderson has yet to show enough
consistency to earn our trust. He has however proven himself capable of a big
game having two of them in his last 4 outings. Considering the match up this
week with San Diego, I have to think Anderson has a better than average shot at
a strong outing. Not only will he be making a lot of plays on Tomlinson but
he'll likely be called on to help cover Antonio Gates.
There really isn't a good reason to look at
Tory James this week other than the fact that he leads the league in picks
with 6 on the season (5 since week 6) and the Bengals lead the league in
takeaways. His tackle numbers are generally very average but history tells us
that when guys get on these interception runs they often keep the string running
for an entire season. Playing a guy on the chances he will make a big play is
the ultimate gamble but sometimes it pays off.
Aeneas Williams continues to fight through neck
and shoulder injuries and though he will play in passing situations it will be
Rich Coady who gets the call at FS. Coady isn't a guy who will hit double
digit tackles but he is one you can depend on for 5-7 solo's about every week.
In a match up with the Chiefs there is no doubt
Rodney Harrison is going to have a strong game but don't count out Eugene
Wilson in this one either. Wilson hasn't been all that consistent but he has
at least 5 solo's in 4 of the past 5 games and is always a big play threat with
4 takeaways on the season. A good measuring stick here might be last week when
Saints FS Tebucky Jones went 7-2-0 against KC.
If we could be sure who was going to see all
the action at safety from week to week in Cincinnati I wouldn't have to put
Kim Herring on the sleepers list. Herring didn't start last week but saw the
majority of the action at SS and ended up with 5 tackles. He's officially listed
as the starter and should get the call from the opening bell this week.
Madieu Williams is expected to again get the start at FS and is an every
week guy as long as he's in the lineup. Williams has been a star when ever he's
played and I think he has finally secured a starting job full time. That said he
isn't a sure thing. If you start him be nervous until you see him on the field.
If he's playing he'll produce.
That's going to do it for me this week. Best of luck to everyone this weekend,
John
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