IDP Sleepers - Week 3
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Posted 9/24 by John Norton, Exclusive to Footballguys.com
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The bye weeks have arrived and the injuries are
mounting, its time to start digging deep for those micromanagement moves that
win championships!
Defensive Linemen
The monster day turned in by Grant
Wistrom in week two probably lifts him out of the sleeper category. This guy
is an every week starter but consider Chike Okeafor this week as well.
Its safe to say that we weren't the only ones to notice Wistrom's explosion, the
Niners have been looking at the film all week. To make things even more
interesting Frisco will probably be without starting left tackle Kwame Harris
which means either Wistrom or Okeafor will be up against a backup tackle and/or
a guy playing out of position. It doesn't hurt that the Niners QB's aren't the
most nimble.
The Bengals D looked great last week against
the questionable offense of Miami and they face another offensively challenged
club this week in the Ravens. Justin Smith stepped up in week two and
made several plays. If things go according to plan for the Ravens in this one,
there won't be many pass attempts so Smith may not have many sack opportunities.
He is however an every down player who is strong against the run and could
easily put up 5-6 solo stops. On the other hand, if the Bengals are able to put
up some points early Baltimore may be forced to pass and they aren't very good
at it.
I really like Greg Ellis this week
against the Skins. Yes the news offense is built around pass protection so last
years sack numbers don't pertain. That said, I'm not convinced all their
problems last year can be placed on the scheme. Ramsey isn't very mobile and the
Skins O-Line is hardly the "hogs" reborn. Ellis is one of those guys who usually
puts up good tackle numbers so if he fails to land a sack he's still not going
to be a bust.
Late news out of New Orleans is that Darren
Howard will suit up an play this week. No one however is saying that he will
start. Its been several weeks since Howard has played and the team isn't going
to throw him back in the fire full time. The decision to ease Howard back into
action is much easier for them considering the stellar play of Will Smith
in Howard's absence. Smith should get at least one more start before Howard sees
any significant playing time and it just so happens that it will come against
the Rams who somehow continue to leave pass protection out of their game plan on
a regular basis. Don't hesitate to put the kid in your lineup.
Steelers DE Aaron Smith didn't do much
last season but his '04 is looking a lot more like his '02 season so far. In '02
Smith posted 54 solo stops and 6.5 sacks. So far this season he has a 6-3-2 mark
with a fumble recovery through just 2 games. Pittsburgh faces a struggling Miami
offense which has a new starter at left tackle where Wade Smith has been demoted
and starting right tackle John St.Clair is attempting to come back from injury.
Smith could be in for his best game of the season in this one.
Linebackers
We all know the perfect run/pass ratio
for the Ravens at this point is about 80/20. Nate Webster and Brian
Simmons had strong outings against weak running game of the Dolphins last
week. If this game stays close or the Ravens break out on top, Baltimore backs
could rack up 40+ carries on the day. That's an incredible amount of opportunity
for a couple of good players.
The late news this week that LaVar Arrington
will be shelved for a while with a knee problem brings up the interesting
questions, who will be his replacement and will he have any fantasy value?
Lemar Marshall is set to get the start at WLB this week and yes he could be
a decent option for a fantasy owner desperate enough to reach that deep. The
position has been a productive one over the years and even this year with
Arrington putting up fairly good numbers despite the knee injury. That said, if
Antonio Pierce is still available he would make the better pickup/play,
both this week and beyond. Pierce will start at MLB this week and see the
majority of the action even if Mike Barrow is active. When/if Barrow returns to
his starting role look for Pierce to bump Marshall out of the WLB job until
Arrington returns.
Their numbers have been rather ordinary to date
but Denver LB's Al Wilson and/or D.J. Williams might be strong
starts this week against the Chargers who's main (only) weapons are LT and
Antonio Gates. Two of Wilson's best games last season came against the Chargers.
His game is based on speed which makes him a better match up for Tomlinson than
many MLB's. There will be plenty of opportunity in this one.
Dat Nguyen and Bradie James
combined to go 5-0-0 last week but then they weren't facing an offense built
around the running game or with a Clinton Portis type back to carry the load.
Ramsey threw 3 picks and didn't even play the whole game. If you think that
doesn't stick in the mind of Joe Gibbs you haven't been paying very good
attention. If anything the Skins will emphasize the run even more this week to
protect their QB. It doesn't hurt that the game is on Monday night for those of
us who like having players to watch in the late games.
Nick Barnett is getting all the props and all
the fantasy attention while people don't seem to remember who Na'il Diggs
is. All Diggs did last year was top the Packers box score 4 or 5 times over the
course of the season and all he did last week was go 5-1-1. The Colts are a very
strong match up for linebackers with or without James in the lineup. They love
to start their running plays to the strong side and then find a cut back lane
that brings them right back at the WLB. This could be one of those weeks where
Diggs steps up.
Late breaking news out of Minnesota has
Chris Claiborne replacing mistake prone rookie Dontarrious Thomas at WLB
this week against the Bears. In my honest opinion Claiborne has been vastly over
rated for years but the fact remains he's a decent player who is now in a much
improved situation. It would certainly be a long shot to start him without
seeing how this will work but then that's why they call them sleepers.
Its probably a week too early to start
Napoleon Harris who is expected to play but not start this week, but I
though he was at least worth mentioning. Once healthy he is going to be a stud
and just because he isn't starting doesn't mean he won't see a lot of time.
Unfortunately the Bucks don't pose much of a threat offensively.
Defensive Backs
Here is a big time long shot to
consider. The Browns are probably going to be starting Leigh Bodden at
corner in place of either Anthony Henry (vertigo) or Daylon against the
Giants this week. Cleveland's pass rush took a beating with injuries to Courtney
Brown and Gerard Warren AND Kurt Warner looked pretty good last week. Figure in
Ron Dayne's injury and you have all the reason in the world to believe the
Giants will attack through the air this week.
When the news of Mike Brown's injury hit this
week I saw a lot of people scrambling to grab Bobby Gray and a lot of
speculation about how the Bears would shuffle their secondary. It didn't happen.
Gray is still backing up Mike Green at SS and Todd Johnson has
replaced Brown at FS. Green led all DB's in tackles two years ago and his 9
tackle day against the Packers last week kind of ruins his sleeper status but
Johnson would be a good gamble as well this week if Green is already gone.
Another Bears DB to consider in this one is R.W. McQuarters who will
likely draw the daunting duty of trying to cover Randy Moss this week. Todd
McMillan replaces Charles Tillman (knee) and is also a consideration.
Roy Williams is probably an every week
starter for most owners who have him. If not get him in there this week, not
only for the same reasons James and Nguyen are good starts, but also because
Ramsey has struggled in the new offense throughout the preseason and into last
week. Williams has a ton of big play ability that the Cowboys are trying to tap
into. A struggling QB like Ramsey could help them strike gold.
The Chiefs are without Priest this week but
they won't modify their offense much to accommodate Blaylock. They may however
find themselves needing to pass a lot more so Texans FS Marcus Coleman
might be a very worthy start. he's been quietly productive in each of the first
two weeks with 6 solo tackles in each game. The Texans moved him to FS in an
attempt to bring some playmaking ability to the position. Coleman has shown that
ability in the past and could have a breakout game at any time. Until then a
6-1-0 every week would work just fine for me. If your in a big league and are in
dire straights, Glenn Earl might be worth a long shot. He's expected to
get the start at SS in place of the injured Eric Brown.
Mark Roman hasn't gone large in a game
yet but he is in a situation where it could happen at any time. The Colts have
no defense but they have a high powered offense that forces the secondary to
make a lot of plays. Roman isn't a big play guy but he's a very dependable
tackler who doesn't make many mistakes. With or without James in the lineup the
Colts will move the ball and Roman should put up 6 or more solo stops.
Lets face it, the only defense in the NFL that
might be as bad as the Chiefs is the Colts. With the front 7 struggling to stop
anyone, the SS position is lighting up the box scores. In all likelihood Doss is
sitting again this week giving Cory Bird his second straight start. It
sure doesn't hurt that the opponent is Ahman Green and the Packers who have been
racking up the ground yards.
Good news for Greg Wesley owners, he
returned to practice Thursday and it looks like he'll start this week against
the Texans. I'm a little nervous about the chances of re-injury but if they are
willing to take the chance so should we.
Injuries continue to chisel away at the Rams
secondary. So much so in fact that they have been forced to move Aeneas Williams
back to corner and pick up street free agent Kwamie Lassiter to start at
FS. Lassiter hasn't been out of work for long so conditioning shouldn't be a big
problem and he played for the Rams recently so he knows the scheme. Also
consider that the Saints are without Deuce this week and that they finally got
their passing game cranked up last week. Lassiter could be a busy guy in week 3.
The last time I mentioned Oakland safety Stuart
Schweigert it came back to bite me in the butt. Some guys never learn so here we
go again. Schewigert saw extensive playing time last week and was the teams
second most productive DB of week 2. There has been no news to suggest that
Schewigert has officially gained a bigger role but reading between the lines of
the week two box score says different. Starting him this week would be a huge
gamble but it could pay off.
Best of luck to everyone this weekend,
John
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