IDP Sleepers - Week 8
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Posted 10/29 by John Norton, Exclusive to Footballguys.com
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Defensive Linemen
Bears defensive linemen Alex Brown, Tommie Harris
and Michael Haynes could all be decent plays in a pinch this week.
Adewale Ogunleye hasn't been ruled out yet but his chances of playing this week
aren't looking good. San Francisco has allowed 19 sacks to date and they should
be able to get some running going with Barlow having 2 weeks rest on his
numerous bumps and bruises. Harris is very active for a DT and is putting up
fairly good tackle numbers. He landed his first career sack last week against
the Bucks.
Brew Bledsoe and the Bills have improved a
little. They have now given up the second most sacks this season at 24. A step
up from where they had been previously but obviously still an excellent match up
for any pass rusher. Calvin Pace hasn't officially been named a starter
yet but Peppi Zellner isn't getting it done and Pace currently leads the club
with 4 sacks (in the last 4 games). Bert Berry is second on the club with
3 sacks and would also make a good play this week with the match up.
Injuries have elevated Travis LaBoy into
the starting DE job for the Titans. He provided a bang (5-1-2) last week with a
big game in his first significant action of the year. LaBoy will replace Carlos
Hall (knee) in the lineup this week and could end up starting the rest of the
season. This weeks opponent is the Bengals who are middle of the pack in sacks
allowed so the match up isn't stellar but after last week there is reason for
optimism.
The match up this week isn't particularly
strong but Kalimba Edwards is expected to see an increased role in the
game. He is finally healthy and has recorded 3 sacks in the past 3 games
including 2 last week against the Giants. Dallas has struggled to run the ball
and Parcells has shown that he isn't afraid to let Vinny sling away which should
create a lot of pass rush opportunity. Shaun Rogers has also been hot of late
with 9 solo tackles and 3 sacks over the last 3 games. The Cowboys "2 yards and
a cloud of dust" running game should be good for his tackle production since
they like to run George between the tackles.
Robert Mathis lacks size to stand up in
the running game but has earned a starting job for the Colts anyway. He has at
least 1 sacks in 4 of the Colts last 5 games and posted 10 tackles between the
week 5 and 6 games before going 1-0-1 last week. The Chiefs have given up 14
sacks on the season but their 188 pass attempts is at the lower end of the
spectrum. They may have to pass more this week to keep pace with the Colts
explosive offense.
The Broncos defensive linemen don't hold much
fantasy value in general as they are very thin in the talent department in
general. That said, Reggie Hayward is the best the unit has to offer and
could be a great start this week for owners in a pinch. Denver faces off against
a Falcons club that has allowed 24 sacks already (tied with Buffalo). With
Michael Vick at QB this is a complete mystery but the stats don't lie.
Between John Abraham getting all the attention
in blocking schemes and the Jets going back to a 4-3 base defense in recent
weeks Shaun Ellis has seen his numbers and fantasy value spike. With 6
solo's and 2.5 sacks over the past two games he is on the verge of becoming an
every week starter for fantasy owners and he should certainly be a strong
consideration this week against a Miami club that has allowed a league worst 26
sacks. It doesn't hurt that Ellis plays on Monday night this week for those of
us who like the excitement of having a chance to pull one out at the buzzer.
The Vikings pass rush has been a little weaker
than expected so far but they could get fat this week against the Giants who
have given up 22 sacks to date. Kenechi Udeze and Kevin Williams
are the teams top rush threats but even Kenny Mixon should be worthy of
consideration this week.
Linebackers
Kevin Lewis opened the season
strong and then faded for a few games when his Giants played some less than
stellar competition. Minnesota doesn't fall into that category. Lewis rebounded
with a 9 tackle game last week and should continue his roll in this one as the
Vikings offense, including the running game are hitting on all cylinders.
Nick Greisen should also be a consideration though I am not all that excited
about him. Barrett Green could return to the starting job at any time.
Monte Beisel isn't likely to play this week so
Kawika Mitchell gets the start at MLB for the Chiefs. Indy's high powered
offense is in high gear so all the Chiefs LB's should receive more than their
usual consideration as starters this week. The only concern with Mitchell is
that he will be pulled in passing situations. Scott Fujita will get the
extra snaps in those situations. Don't hesitate to give him a start.
The Panthers have struggled offensively this
year to say the least but they were able to get Brad Hoover going last week for
nearly 100 yards. If the defense can keep them in the game all the Seahawks
linebackers have potential to be productive. Chad Brown will make his
first start of the year and will contribute to the pass rush with his fresh
legs. Niko Koutouvides has not yet been officially names the starter at
MLB but has received the majority of the snaps at the position in the last two
games. Tracy White went last week and will make his second start in place
of Anthony Simmons.
Last week saw the Raider return to the 3-4 base
defense that they had planned to run before Napoleon Harris was injured.
If they stay with it this week as expected, Harris will be on the field full
time at last and should begin to give us the production he is capable of.
Ladanian Tomlinson is dinged but expected to play and Harris will draw some
coverage on Antonio Gates when ever he goes across the middle so Harris should
be very active.
You would have to be in a pinch to go this deep
but Tedy Bruschi and Ted Johnson should have solid tackle numbers
this week against the rediscovered ground game of the Steelers. Johnson replaced
Roman Phifer as the starting ILB 2 weeks ago and has turned in 6 solo stops in
back to back games. Bruschi is inconsistent as a tackler but has as much big
play potential as nearly any LB in the league. The Pats will try and confuse the
Steelers rookie QB so don't be surprised if Bruschi comes up with a big play.
I had to laugh when the NFL network guys were
making fun of MLB Rob Morris for getting faked out of his jock last week but it
points out part of the reason that Jim Nelson has replaced him as the
Colts starting MLB. We all know that Holmes and the running game are the base
for the Chiefs offense so Nelson will have his work cut out for him but should
make a lot of tackles in this one. With speed being his strongest asset Cato
June also makes a good match up for the Chiefs running game. There are no
fantasy point lost for tackles down the field. June is now working with Nelson
in passing situations so he will be on the field nearly full time.
The longer Chris Draft is out the harder it
will be for him to get his job back. Especially if Demorrio Williams
continues to produce. Atlanta was embarrassed last week by the Chiefs and it
doesn't get much easier this week with Denver and new stud back Ruben Droughns
next on the schedule. Droughns isn't as elusive as Holmes so maybe Williams and
the Falcons can make more of their tackles within 5 yards of the line of
scrimmage this week. One thing that is certain is that there will be ample
opportunity for the Atlanta LB's including Matt Stewart who has 16 solo
stops over the past two weeks.
E.J. Henderson returned to active duty
last week from his knee injury but didn't play a lot. He suffered no setbacks
though and should see his role increase this week. He could take over the full
time duties he held prior to the injury. The Giants are going to try and get
their running game going to keep the Viking offense off the field. If they have
any success Henderson should have a solid day. Raonall Smith has
established himself as the teams WLB, at least for the moment. Smith has a ton
of ability and has produced respectable numbers over the past 3 games. He isn't
likely to have a huge game against New York but should provide very serviceable
numbers.
Washington has no offense and the Packers seem
to have rediscovered theirs. This points to Ahman Green and the rest of the RB
cast getting a lot of action which means Antonio Pierce should have
another busy day. With LaVar Arrington having a set back in his recovery from
the knee injury Pierce remains the teams top LB in fantasy terms. Marcus
Washington also has a lot of potential in this situation. With Arrington out
he will remain on the field in the nickel package.
Defensive Backs
Injuries in the Green Bay secondary are
going to be an issue this week. Darren Sharper is expected to sit out with a
sprained knee which will put more emphasis on SS Mark Roman and Sharpers
replacement at FS Bhawoh Jue. The Packers will also be without starting
corner Al Harris for the game. Washington hasn't shown much punch offensively
but with Green Bay missing their two best DB's you can bet the Skins will try to
exploit the weakness.
If the game between Carolina and Seattle plays
out the way it looks on paper the Panthers will be doing a lot of passing in
this one. That isn't a good thing for Carolina who simply isn't built to play
that game. On the other hand Ken Lucas and maybe even Michael Boulware
could be looking at big opportunities. Only the Raiders and Dolphins have thrown
more interception than Carolina's 10 on the season. Meanwhile Boulware, who
handling Seattle's nickel duties, has 3 picks already. I mention Lucas because
offenses in general have been avoiding Marcus Trufant for the most part. Lucas
is a good corner but is undoubtedly the lesser of the two evils for offensive
coordinators. If/when Carolina has to throw, look for them to challenge Lucas
often.
There are several of reason to consider Mike Green
and Todd Johnson this week. Not the least of which is the fact that
both have quietly been very productive. Johnson has produced 7,5,6 and 7 solo
tackles over the past 4 games while Green has posted 6 or more solo's in 3 of
the last 5 games and has 3 takeaways to his credit as well. This weeks matchup
with San Francisco could be particularly productive for this pair considering QB
Tim Rattay is not 100% and has struggled even when he was. Frisco would love to
be able to ride Kevin Barlow this week as both teams are hurting offensively.
This should be a low scoring game with a lot of running from both offenses.
Andre Lott moves into the starting
lineup at SS for Washington and Sean Taylor will start at FS despite his
recent arrest on DUI charges. Both players are big play threats and we all know
that Favre has a habit of throwing the ball up for grabs, he's been picked off 8
times so far. Between that, the injuries at LB and the Ahman Green factor, the
Redskins secondary should be a busy place. Taylor should actually be an every
week starter at this point but he has yet to put up the real big numbers. They
are coming, don't have him on your bench when they arrive.
Eric Brown was supposed to be back for
the Texans last game back in week 6 before the bye but didn't play in that game.
Coming out of the bye week he is two weeks healthier and should return to the
starting lineup against a Jacksonville team who's offense is clearly on the
rise. The Texans SS position has been very productive so far this season with
all three players who have started there posting very solid tackle numbers.
Despite all the teams struggles the Miami D has
remained sturdy. That will be tested this week by the Jets who up until they ran
into New England last week had been moving the ball up and down the field on
everyone. Arturo Freeman replaces oft injured Antuan Edwards at FS this
week. both he and SS Sammy Knight will become well acquainted with Curtis
Martin by the time this game is over.
The Bengals have settled on Kevin Kaesveharn
and Kim Herring as their starting safeties, at least for the time being,
with Madieu Williams serving as the nickel back. Even in their impressive Monday
night win over Denver Cincinnati's safety positions continued to be productive.
Kaesveharn is the better fantasy option at this point but its very possible that
either or both of them could post 6+ tackles this week. Add a little more value
to them if McNair isn't able to go as Billy Volek has struggled when filling in.
Kerry Collins has thrown 9 interceptions in
just less than 5 full games under center so there is likely to be a lot of
opportunity for Quentin Jammer and Sammy Davis to make game
breaking plays. Even if they don't land a pick, the lack of a running game by
the Raiders means that the receivers will be counted on to carry the offense.
That transaltes a lot of tackle opportunity for the Chargers corners as well.
The Jets plan to get Jon McGraw more invlovled
in the base defense this week but don't expect his playing time to come at the
expense of Erik Coleman. McGraw plays FS where Coleman has been starting
but Coleman is a very capable SS as well. When everything is settled look for
Coleman to end up at SS full time, sending Reggie Tongue to the bench. This
weeks match up isn't exactly strong from the perspective of tackle production
but Miami QB's have averaged nearly 2 interceptions a game. Coleman has shown
the ability to make big plays with 3 takeaways on the season to date.
That's going to do it for me this week. Best of luck to everyone this weekend,
John
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