IDP Sleepers - Week 9
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Posted 11/5 by John Norton, Exclusive to Footballguys.com
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Defensive Linemen
The Redskins defensive linemen don't have a lot of fantasy
value in general but Cornelius Griffin has been making enough noise to
deserve some attention, especially in leagues that reward tackles heavily. He's
put up 29 solo's through 7 games and has gone 12-1-2 over the last two. The
Lions are middle of the pack having given up 17 sacks this year but many if not
most of those sacks have come from pressure up the middle. Call it a hunch but I
like Griffin this week.
When the Browns faced off against Baltimore in
week one Kenard Lang had a career best 3 sacks and a forced fumble.
Granted week one was a long time ago but the fact remains that Baltimore is
allowing a sack once every 8.7 pass attempts. Even if the Ravens get Jamal Lewis
going as expected Lang will have his chances. It doesn't hurt that he's
generally strong against the run as well. Ebenezer Ekuban has also
emerged as a solid option with 4 sacks over the last 6 games and should be
considered this week.
Even without Grant Wistrom, Chike Okeafor
has managed to be a surprisingly solid fantasy option all season. He has at
least 1 sack in 5 of 7 games and this weeks match up makes him even more
appealing. The Niners have allowed 22 sacks already which ranks them near the
bottom of the league at protecting the QB.
No one has had more trouble keeping their QB
upright than the Dolphins who have allowed a league high 30 sacks. Bert Berry
is the best option the Cardinals have to offer at this point but sooner or later
Dennis Green is going to realize that Peppi Zellner stinks and give Calvin
Pace the shot he deserves. Pace leads the club with 4 sacks to date so just
maybe that shot will come this week. Darnell Dockett is also playing well
and leads all Arizona DL in tackles. Many close to the team believe he is the
single biggest improvement to this defense which is already closing in on last
years total sack production and turnover totals. With Miami's 2 yards and a
cloud of dust offense, Dockett should provide strong tackle numbers at the
least.
Being stuck in a 3-4 its tough for the New
England linemen to produce with any consistency. That said the Patriots have
some real studs lining up in their front 3 in Richard Seymour, Ty Warren and
Vince Wilfork. Any or all of these guys are capable of big production at any
give time but guessing when they will go off can be a frustrating game. Playing
the odd this week would suggest that their chances are improved against a St.
Louis offense that is well known for their lack of commitment to protecting the
QB. The only thing that scares me here are all the injuries in the New England
secondary. If they can't cover anyone the DL won't have much time to get to
Bulger.
The Bears have been disappointed with the
production of their ends since Ogunleye went down a few weeks back. Michael
Haynes and Alex Brown have managed just 2 sacks between them thus far
but they will have a golden opportunity to help themselves this week against a
Giants club that is second only to the Dolphins in sacks allowed with 27.
On a weekly basis any DL facing the Bledsoe led
Bills can be considered a sleeper. Last week saw the Cardinals become the first
team this season that failed to sack Drew at least twice. John Abraham and Shaun
Ellis can hardly be considered sleepers at this point but Jason
Ferguson fits the bill. Not only does he generally provide decent tackle
numbers but Ferguson can rush the passer from the inside. He has 3.5 sacks on
the past 5 games and there is no doubt the Bills blocking schemes will be paying
a lot more attention to the ends this week.
David Bowens has a long way to go before
he's considered a serious fantasy option but its worth noting that he has 3
sacks over the past 5 games and is facing a Cardinals club this week that has
allowed a sack once every 8.8 pass attempts. With Jason Taylor getting all the
attention Bowens could very well have his best game of the season this week.
The Bears are hurting at QB and rookie Craig
Krenzel isn't the most mobile of signal callers. Strahan (deservingly) gets all
the attention but second year man Osi Umenyiora is quietly starting to
show up. Umenyiora has finally moved into the starting lineup and is now
seeing considerable playing time in running situations as well as on passing
downs. He has recorded a sack in each of the past two games and considering the
Bears have allowed 23 so far, there is a good chance he will add to his total.
Linebackers
Its about time E.J. Henderson
got healthy and started making an impact. He posted a career high 8-3-0 last
week but don't expect that to be his career high for long. Henderson is the real
deal and should take off down the stretch. The Colts didn't run the ball
much/well in last weeks loss but you can bet they have learned from that mistake
and will get Edgerrin James going this week. Henderson will make a very solid
start in this one. Raonall Smith is expected to sit after suffering a concussion
last week. That means rookie Dontarrious Thomas will step back into the
lineup. This kid has produced when ever give the chance and should also be a
solid option.
Recent weeks have seen a production spike from
both Teddy Lehman and Earl Holmes. Injuries at the position have
limited the Lions situational substitutions keeping Holmes on the field more.
Lehman is producing well despite being relegated to the SLB position. The fact
that he is moving inside in the nickel package has been helping. Washington
doesn't have an explosive passing game and will make every effort to ride
Clinton Portis if he is at all successful. This point to a lot of opportunity
for both linebackers in this one.
Seattle ran the ball a whopping 43 times last
week and with their battered receiving corps its a safe bet they will follow a
similar game plan against the decrepit Niners D. The shuffle that followed the
Julian Peterson injury is finally over and Jamie Winborn has landed at
the WLB position. He put up 6 solo tackles and a pair of sacks last week and
while I doubt he will match the sack numbers, he could very well eclipse the
tackle production this week. Winborn's biggest asset is his speed. He comes with
a ton of upside and matches up well against a west coast style of offense. I
expect big things from him the rest of the year.
Dan Morgan is injured again which come as no
shock to anyone. He is expected to miss this weeks game with a concussion. In
the past with Morgan out, Will Witherspoon has moved inside but the club
(obviously expecting a Morgan injury just like the rest of us) wisely is better
prepared for the situation this year. Vinney Ciurciu replaced Morgan last
week and played pretty well. Both he and Witherspoon put up excellent numbers
against Seattle. The Raiders are hardly a match up to get excited about at this
point but they should have Wheatley back and will attempt to run a more balanced
offense. I wouldn't go with either of these guys unless your in a pinch
but they are worth consideration if you have bye or injury problems to cover.
Steelers football is back in the NFL and that
means a lot of work for opposing middle linebackers. Both of the Patriots inside
guys had good numbers last week and you can bet the Steelers are looking to make
the most of their size advantage up front. That points toward a real busy day
for undersized LB's Mark Simoneau and Nate Wayne who could find
themselves taking some long "bus rides". If your a gambler or are in a real
pinch this week you might even consider Jeremiah Trotter. It wouldn't be
a big surprise to see Trotter on the field a lot as he is much bigger than
Simoneau and would be a better match up against the Steelers big backs.
Its true that the Bears offense is lacking with
all the injuries and its also true that their remaining personnel (Krenzel and
A-Train) are going to dictate a slightly different offensive approach than the
one they opened the season with. Kevin Lewis vanished last week along
with the Vikings running game but I expect the Bears defense will keep them in
this game longer than the Vikings were. Lewis is a capable player and though I
would be nervous starting him there are certainly worse options. Nick Greisen
didn't actually start last weeks game but replaced an injured Barrett Green
early on and posted nice numbers. He'll get the start this week and should be
productive again.
Orlando Ruff is not a guy I am high on
at all but with Courtney Watson likely to sit this week with a sore knee, Ruff
will be the starter in the middle. He's put up decent numbers from time to time
and the Chargers are certainly a very strong match up so as a spot fill in for
the week it would be hard to find a better option at this point.
Kawika Mitchell got the start at MLB
last week and made a good showing despite the lack of running game by the Colts.
Unless you watched the game most people don't know that he made one heck of a
play and intercepted a pass that was negated by a penalty. The Bucks running
game is a question mark at this point but Mitchell is starting to show why he
was an early draft pick last year. He isn't likely go off with this match up but
should post quality numbers for a #3 starter.
There Raiders got some good news this week in
that ILB Danny Clark's injury isn't as serious as initially thought. He will be
available and should start this week but he won't be 100%. Meanwhile Napoleon
Harris is finally healthy and ready to assume his role as the teams top LB.
Carolina doesn't present a great match up unless Stephen Davis can return which
doesn't seem likely at this point. On the other hand, the way Oakland has played
defensively in recent weeks Brad Hoover could explode. Harris isn't likely to go
large here but I wouldn't hesitate to give him a start. He should be very
serviceable.
Mike Vrabel will never hit double digit
tackles in the Patriots defensive scheme but he has become a very consistent
pass rusher who is generally good for between 4 and 7 tackles a week as well.
Blitzing linebackers have been a particularly big problem for the Rams who like
to send everyone into the pass pattern and don't do a good job of picking up
extra rushers. Vrabel might be worth a gamble in this situation.
Defensive Backs
Michael Boulware still isn't officially starting but
saw his most significant playing time of the season last week and could become a
starter at any time without notice. He hasn't managed big tackle numbers yet but
has certainly made a big play impact in his limited playing time. The Niners
should be behind early and in pas mode most of the day. With Boulware playing in
the nickel package he's going to be on the field a lot and could be a strong
play.
Michael Lewis and Brian Dawkins
have quietly worked their way to being 1-2 on the Eagles defense in solo
tackles. This weeks match up with the methodic Steelers running game certainly
won't do anything to hurt their cause. In the past Eagle safeties have been very
inconsistent. Lewis has shown signs of continuing that trend but has produced
well against good running teams. Dawkins on the other hand has really come to
life and is showing uncharacteristic consistency this year. Both should do well
with this match up.
Dre' Bly has missed some time this
season with injury but appears to be healthy at last. He reminded us in week 8
of all the big plays he made last season and pretty well put to rest any
criticism that last years numbers were a fluke by recording 2 picks and a TD
last week. The Skins QB's have had trouble getting the ball to the right colored
jersey all season and the Lions cover 2 scheme usually gives him plenty of
tackle opportunities as well.
The further we get into the season the tougher
the road gets for the Dolphins. Sammy Knight posted his best tackle
numbers of the season last week as the Jets shredded Miami on the ground.
Arizona has rediscovered their ground game behind Emmitt Smith who seems to have
found the reserve switch on his fuel tank. The Fish have to be disheartened by
all the losses on the scoreboard which will only magnify the loss of Junior Seau
to injury. This club won't quit but all the wind has to be gone from their sails
at this point and Knight's production is likely to get a big boost down the
stretch.
Not much explanation needed here. Bob
Sanders replaced the injured Mike Doss last week and proceeded to go large.
The Colts can't stop anyone and their safeties are being called upon to make way
too many tackles. Bad for the Colts but great for us fantasy geeks. Starting
Sanders is as close to a no brainer as it gets.
Heading into last weeks bye the Browns
announced that Chris Crocker has beaten out Earl Little for the starting
job at FS. Crocker had some decent production leading up to the move despite the
time share situation, which leads to the possibility that he could put up solid
numbers now that the job is his alone. It doesn't hurt that this weeks opponent
is the Ravens with a healthy and well rested Jamal Lewis in the backfield.
Going into last weeks game Jon McGraw
was supposed to see his first extensive action since being injured early on. He
didn't start the game but "extensive" hardly describes his playing time. McGraw
got in the game on the second series and never left it again. This week he
returns to his starting FS role. If last weeks numbers were any indication, he
is going to make quite a fantasy splash the rest of the season. This weeks match
up isn't a particularly strong one but then there are no worse match ups for a
safety at this point than Miami and McGraw went off on them.
The Denver defense that was statistically so
strong in September is starting to fade a little and SS Kenoy Kennedy is
starting to emerge. 4 times in the past 6 weeks Kennedy had put up 6 or more
solo stops. The Broncos are coming off back to back losses and in comes the
suddenly strong Texans offense with a healthy Domanick Davis. It will be
interesting to see if Denver can stop the skid and even if they do Kennedy is
going to have a lot of opportunity. It doesn't hurt his prospects that John
Lynch is going to be in street clothes for this one.
The Bucks are playing a little better on both
sides of the ball but are they up to facing the potent Chiefs offense and Priest
Holmes? Probably not considering that no one else has been. Holmes is running
wild and will continue to do so. Tampa Bay plays a cover 2 in the secondary
which generally limits safety production but Jermaine Phillips and
Dwight Smith are going to see plenty of Holmes this week.
It used to take just 2 words to explain why
someone would be a good start against the Chargers (LaDanian Tomlinson) but
these days it takes a little more. Add Antonio Gates and even Keenan McCardell
to the phrase. Both Jay Bellamy and Tebucky Jones could be
considered decent #3 starters on any given week but with this match up it would
be very tough to sit either of them out.
That's going to do it for me this week. Best of luck to everyone this weekend,
John
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