Passing Matchups - Week 11
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Posted 11/18 by Mark Wimer and Joe Bryant, Exclusive to Footballguys.com
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Hi Folks,
Here's our look at the Passing Matchups for this week.
PLEASE NOTE: This does NOT replace the Cheatsheet ranking. The
Cheatsheet rankings are the final say on where we see a player for
that week. The Matchup Breakdowns are simply one more tool in the box
when it comes to helping choose your lineup.
Also note, just because a player has a "bad" matchup, it does NOT mean
he's not a starter in your league. If Peyton Manning is playing the
toughest pass defense in the league, that just means he's got a tough
matchup that week. He's also your starter unless you're loaded at QB.
In the same way, if the worst QB on your roster has a "great" matchup
that week, it doesn't necessarily mean he's your starter. It means we
think he'll fare better than normal that week.
Bottom line is that the cheatsheets are the final say.
Let's jump to it.
Joe
Quick Index:
Great Matchups:
Baltimore's Passing Attack vs. The Dallas Defense
Denver's Passing Attack vs. The New Orleans Defense
Green Bay's Passing Attack vs. The Houston Defense
San Diego's Passing Attack vs. The Oakland Defense
New England's Passing Attack vs. The Kansas City Defense
Good Matchups:
Detroit's Passing Attack vs. The Minnesota Defense
Minnesota's Passing Attack vs. The Detroit Defense
Indianapolis' Passing Attack vs. The Chicago Defense
Tampa Bay's Passing Attack vs. The San Francisco Defense
Philadelphia's Passing Attack vs. The Washington Defense
Neutral Matchups:
Carolina's Passing Attack vs. The Arizona Defense
Houston's Passing Attack vs. The Green Bay Defense
Chicago's Passing Attack vs. The Indianapolis Defense
Miami's Passing Attack vs. The Seattle Defense
Seattle's Passing Attack vs. The Miami Defense
Cleveland's Passing Attack vs. The New York Jets' Defense
St. Louis' Passing Attack vs. The Buffalo Defense
Tennessee's Passing Attack vs. The Jacksonville Defense
Jacksonville's Passing Attack vs. The Tennessee Defense
Kansas City's Passing Attack vs. The New England Defense
Tough Matchups:
Washington's Passing Attack vs. The Philadelphia Defense
Arizona' s Passing Attack vs. The Carolina Defense
New York Giants' Passing Attack vs. The Atlanta Defense
New Orleans' Passing Attack vs. The Denver Defense
New York Jets' Passing Attack vs. The Cleveland Defense
The Cincinnati Passing Attack vs. The Pittsburgh Defense
The Pittsburgh Passing Attack vs. The Cincinnati Defense
Oakland's Passing Attack vs. The San Diego Defense
Buffalo's Passing Attack vs. The St. Louis Defense
Bad Matchups:
Dallas' Passing Attack vs. The Baltimore Defense
San Francisco's Passing Attack vs. The Tampa Bay Defense
Baltimore's Passing Attack vs. The Dallas Defense (Great Matchup)
Kyle Boller actually threw a touchdown last week. 2 of them, as a
matter of fact – both to little known WR Clarence Moore, which wasn't
much help to most fantasy owners. Boller has clawed his way clear up
to 24th among all fantasy QBs over the past 3 weeks, with 60/101 for
578 yards, 3 TDs and 1 interception in 3 games. The bottom line is
that the Ravens are about defense, rushing the ball, defense, rushing
the ball, and then passing – in that order.
Dallas got shellacked this past Monday night by Donovan McNabb and
company (15/27 for 345 yards, 4 TDs and 0 interceptions). That level
of futility in the secondary is nothing new this season – over the
past 4 weeks, the team has averaged 263 yards and 2.5 passing scores
allowed per game, and ranks 24th in the NFL this year allowing 230.1
passing yards and 20 total TDs to date (tied for second-most TDs
allowed this season). The bottom line is that the Dallas pass defense
stinks to high heaven.
Todd Heap continues to miss time due to his bad ankle, and hasn't been
listed as better than doubtful all season long (questionable this
week). Dallas' defense can't even blame their woes on injuries, as the
guys who have been starting all season long are relatively healthy,
although S Keith Davis has a sore hip (probable).
The forecast for M & T Bank Stadium calls for a high of 67F and a low
of 48F with a 30% chance for precipitation. If the rain falls thickly
at game time, the field and ball could become even more challenging
than usual to navigate/handle.
Nobody will ever mistake the Ravens' attack for the Colts', but this
is a great matchup for Boller (for what that's worth).
Denver's Passing Attack vs. The New Orleans Defense (Great Matchup)
Jake Plummer went into the bye week on an up note, after torching the
Texans for 16/24 for 234 yards, 4 TDs and 0 interceptions. Ashley
Lelie (6 targets for 4/81/1) and Rod Smith (5 targets for 3/29/1) led
the team as far as targets – Jeb Putzier (3 for 2/48/1) and FB Kyle
Johnson (4 for 3/46/1) caught the other scores. Plummer is the 5th
ranked fantasy QB in the land this year so far, with 177/303 for 2282
yards, 19 TDs and 10 interceptions, and 29/109/0 rushing in addition –
he's averaging 21.23 fantasy points per game.
New Orleans managed to survive the Priest Holmes-less Chiefs last
week, but allowed 22/33 for 311 yards, 1 TD and 2 interceptions in the
course of the game. The Saints have now bumped the Colts out of the
worst spot in the NFL, allowing an average of 275 passing yards per
game and 16 scores to date. Remarkably, the Saints are also the worst
rush defense in the league, giving up 149 rushing yards per game. The
opposition can move the ball on these guys at will on any given
Sunday. Over the past 4 weeks, the Saints average 299 passing yards
and 2.3 TDs surrendered per outing. "Defense? – We don't need no
stinking defense!" seems to be the New Orleans mantra in 2004. Jay
Bellamy was a top IDP DB last week, though, with 9 solo tackles, 4
assists, and a fumble recovery.
Denver comes into town off a bye and in good health. The Saints list
CB Mike McKenzie (knee, questionable).
This game will be played in the Superdome – weather isn't a factor.
Denver faces off against the worst pass defense in the league in this game.
Green Bay's Passing Attack vs. The Houston Defense (Great Matchup)
Brett Favre and company dueled the Vikings down to the last second,
and won – thanks in no small measure to Favre's 20/29 for 236 yards, 4
TDs and 0 interceptions. Javon Walker was his favorite target last
week (7 for 3/74/1), as he has been for many weeks now (15 targets for
8/135/2 over the past 3 weeks – Donald Driver is second with 9 for
5/76/1 during that span). Favre has been on fire in the last 2 games,
with 40/62 for 525 yards, 5 TDs and 3 interceptions to his credit.
Houston's pass defense is hardly stellar this season, allowing a
league-leading 23 TDs through the air to date, and ranking 28th in the
NFL surrendering 241.4 passing yards per contest. Over the past 4
weeks, the picture is even worse – the team averages 262 passing yards
and 3 TDs given away per contest during that span. Last week, Peyton
Manning deconstructed the secondary to the tune of 18/27 for 320
yards, 5 TDs and 2 interceptions. Ouch! The Texans are tied for last
in the NFL with only 14 sacks to their credit this season, while the
Packers are 1st in the NFL with only 5 sacks surrendered – Favre
should not be bothered in the pocket very often on Sunday.
Green Bay's Robert Ferguson injured his shoulder in last week's game
(not listed), while TE David Martin has a sore knee (questionable).
Houston lists S Jason Simmons (head, doubtful), and they lost CB Jason
Bell to a broken arm (both forearm bones in the right arm) last week –
injuries are further weakening their already inadequate secondary.
The forecast for Reliant Stadium calls for a high of 75F and a low of
58F, with a 40% chance for rain. If the weather looks too threatening
before game-time, the retractable roof will get closed – weather
shouldn't be a factor in this game.
Look for Favre and company to feast on the banquet spread out before
them this week.
San Diego's Passing Attack vs. The Oakland Defense (Great Matchup)
Drew Brees owned the Raiders three weeks ago, throwing 22/25 for 281
yards, 5 TDs and 0 interceptions against the Raiders' secondary.
Nothing has changed in the past 3 weeks that would indicate the story
should be different this time around. He's been nuclear hot all
season, and went into the bye-week after demolishing the Saints for
22/36 for 257 yards, 4 TDs and 0 interceptions. TE Antonio Gates is on
a scoring binge, with 14 targets for 10/119/5 to his credit in the
team's last 2 games. Keenan McCardell is Brees' new favorite target
(17 for 10/144/1) and Eric Parker is playing well in the #2 WR role
(13 for 9/127/0). All the pieces are in place for Brees to continue
his successful season.
Oakland barely held off the Panthers before they also enjoyed a bye
last week – Jake Delhomme hit 25/45 for 299 yards, 3 TDs and 0
interceptions vs. the Raiders in that game. Over the past 4 weeks, the
Raiders have really stunk in this phase of the game, allowing an
average of 273 yards and 3 TDs per game. They've allowed 19 passing
scores in 9 games this season, and are currently 23rd in the NFL for
the season, surrendering an average of 225.4 yards per contest. The
Raiders' pass defense is embarrassingly inept at this point in the
season. They are 28th in the NFL with a mere 16 sacks to their credit
this season (San Diego has allowed only12 all season, tied for
4th-best in the NFL).
Both teams come off a bye-week, so they should be well rested. San
Diego lists WR Tim Dwight (toe, probable) and TE Justin Peele (ankle,
questionable).
The forecast for Network Associates Coliseum calls for a high of 62F
and a low of 44F with a 10% chance for rain – a beautiful California
day is on tap for this game.
Brees and the Chargers should slice and dice the Raiders like a
prep-chef mincing onions on Sunday.
New England's Passing Attack vs. The Kansas City Defense (Great Matchup)
New England's Tom Brady carved up the very tough Bills' secondary last
week as if they were no tougher than the Raiders. 19/35 for 233 yards,
2 TDs and 1 interception was his final tally when the dust settled
(David Givens saw 11 targets for 5/66/0; David Patten 6 for 3/43/1;
and TE Christian Fauria hauled in the other score with 1/5/1). Daniel
Graham continued his fade-to-black with only 3 targets for 1/9/0 –
he's dropped off the edge of the world in fantasy terms, with only
that single catch during the team's last 3 games.
Kansas City dropped another winnable game last week, collapsing to
Aaron Brooks/Joe Horn and allowing 15/27 for 259 yards, 1 TD and 1
interception (Horn had 5/167/1 to his credit). The team ranks 26th in
the NFL this season averaging 235.9 passing yards allowed per game,
with 17 scores allowed in this phase through 9 games. Over the past 4
weeks they've been bled at the rate of 276 passing yards and 2.0 TDs
per game – the Chiefs' pass defense is on skid row this season.
New England lists Deion Branch as questionable due to his lingering
knee injury. QBs Tom Brady and Jim Miller both have a sore right
shoulder (probable). Kansas City's secondary has been without CB
Dexter McCleon lately (hamstring, questionable), and CB William Bartee
is probable (foot).
The forecast for Arrowhead Stadium on Monday night calls for a high of
46F and a low of 32F with a 20% chance for rain. If the plains winds
kick up it will feel a lot colder than 32F at game time – but that
shouldn't bother the out-door stadium New England Patriots too much.
New England's attack rarely falters, and they should have a strong
outing vs. the weak Chiefs' defense.
Detroit's Passing Attack vs. The Minnesota Defense (Good Matchup)
We're putting the injury report first in this write up, because the
Lions have been severely hampered by injuries this season – most
especially in the last few weeks. As we all know, Charles Rogers is
out for the season, while rookie talent Roy Williams has been hobbled
by a bad ankle and clearly isn't playing at 100%. Az-Zahir Hakim, the
team's #3 WR, has a bad back that keeps flaring up and limiting him on
Sundays (hip, doubtful), while WR Tai Streets has a bad hamstring
(questionable). The bottom line is that Joey Harrington doesn't have
any top-shelf WRs at his disposal right now. The problem was
highlighted last week by the Jaguars, when they held Harrington to
11/33 for 121 yards, 0 TDs and 1 interception. There isn't much
fantasy potential to be found here right now.
Minnesota is sliding down the charts right now, and they gave up 20/29
for 236 passing yards, 4 TDs and 0 interceptions to the Packers last
week (to drop below the Pack in the NFC North). They have been
averaging 201 yards and 2 TDs allowed per game over the past 4 weeks
(this season the Vikings are 29th in the NFL allowing 244.9 passing
yards per game to date, with 15 TDs surrendered in this phase of the
game so far). Despite all the talented players in the secondary, the
Vikings can't seem to shut down anybody else's QB.
The injury woes of the Lions are outlined above – the Vikings are in
good shape at this point in the season.
This game is to be played in the Metrodome, so weather won't be a factor.
This is a good matchup for the Lions, but will there be anyone for
Harrington to throw the ball to when Sunday rolls around?
Minnesota's Passing Attack vs. The Detroit Defense (Good Matchup)
Minnesota's "other" receivers came to play last week in Randy Moss's
absence, and Daunte Culpepper enjoyed a fine game with 27/44 for 363
yards, 4 TDs and 0 interceptions. He threw at Nate Burleson the most
(18 targets for 11/141/1), followed by Marcus Robinson (10 for
2/39/0). Onterrio Smith (3 for 2/13/1), Jermane Wiggins (7 for 6/94/1)
and Moe Williams (4 for 4/57/1) each snagged a score. The passing game
was powerful last week.
Detroit was generous to the Jaguars' #2 QB last week, allowing 19/36
for 198 yards, 2 TDs and 0 interceptions to Garrard and company –
including a game-winning TD pass to Jimmy Smith in OT. The team ranks
22nd in the NFL allowing an average of 224.7 passing yards per game
(14 TDs to date), and have coughed up an average of 182 yards, and 1.8
TDs per game over the past 4 weeks – the yardage numbers are better,
but a clip of almost 2 TDs per game in this phase is hardly what we'd
call stout.
Moss is expected to miss this game (hamstring, doubtful). Detroit is
in decent shape at this point in the season, with no new injuries of
note.
This game is to be played in the Metrodome, so weather won't be a factor.
Minnesota is loaded with talent, and they get to play in the friendly
confines of the Metrodome this week. Detroit is sub-par in this phase
– advantage, Vikings.
Indianapolis' Passing Attack vs. The Chicago Defense (Good Matchup)
For those Marvin Harrison owners who are spooked by his 2/22/0
performance last week we say – relax. Harrison saw 5 balls, Reggie
Wayne was thrown to 6 times (4/33/1), while Brandon Stokley had 7
chances (5/132/2). It's not like Harrison is a forgotten man. Peyton
Manning is on a pace to break Dan Marino's all-time NFL passing TD
record – Harrison will get his share. For heaven's sake, Manning has
thrown for 1060 yards and 14 TDs with only 3 interceptions in his last
3 games – just start your Colts, folks. One interesting development
has been the emergence of TE Dallas Clark (9/228/3 on 10 targets in
the last 3 weeks) – again, Harrison owners need to realize that he
leads the team in targets during that span, with 26 chances (13/222/2
in production).
Chicago found a way to win last week, and 6 of their 19 points came
from Michael Haynes' 45 yard interception return for a TD. Billy Volek
did light them up for 27/44 for 334 yards, 2 TDs (and that 1 costly
interception), though. Usually, Chicago is made of stouter stuff,
ranking 12th in the NFL allowing 204.2 passing yards per game with 10
TDs surrendered to date (averaging just 185 passing yards and 1.0
thrown TDs per contest over the past 4 weeks). The Volek performance
looks more like an aberration than a trend from where we sit.
CB Charles Tillman (knee, doubtful) and S Bobby Gray (groin,
questionable) sat out last week's game (and several others before
that), while DB Alfonso Marshall sprained a knee last weekend (not
listed). The Colts list WR Troy Walters as doubtful (broken arm).
The forecast for Soldier Field calls for a high of 45F and a low of
32F with a 20% chance of rain. Blustery winds are common in Chicago at
this time of year – that could be a factor in the passing game.
Chicago's defense is above average in this phase of the game, but the
Colts are superlative. Advantage, Indianapolis.
Tampa Bay's Passing Attack vs. The San Francisco Defense (Good Matchup)
Brian Griese had a rough week vs. the Falcons, hitting the turf 7
times for -49 yards as the Tampa OL leaked pass rushers like a sieve
in week 10. In between getting slammed onto the ground, he managed
19/26 for 174 yards, 2 TDs and 1 interception – not bad, considering
the amount of heat he was under last Sunday. Michael Clayton and Ken
Dilger both caught every ball that Griese threw to them (6/90/1 and
5/51/1, respectively) – his team-mates did what they could in their
opportunities. The bottom line here is that the offensive line must
protect their QB better, or he's going to end up injured. Clayton has
been a fantasy standout in the past 3 weeks, with 11/180/1 in 2 games
(11th best fantasy WR during that span), and Dilger ranks 6th among
TE's with 10/98/2 to his credit in the past 2 games.
Jake Delhomme threw 19/34 for 303 yards, 3 TDs and 0 interceptions vs.
the 49ers last week – they did not contain the Delhomme-to-Muhammad
connection (6/123/3). San Francisco is in the middle of the NFL pack
this season, allowing an average of 219.3 yards (17 TDs to date) in
the passing phase of the game. Over the past 4 weeks, they've been
pretty soft, averaging 239 passing yards and 2.3 TDs surrendered each
game.
The Buccaneers list QB Brian Griese (right shoulder, probable). San
Francisco has CB Jimmy Williams down as questionable (toe), while CB
Ahmed Plummer is out (neck).
The forecast for Raymond James Stadium calls for a high of 84F and a
low of 67F with a 20% chance for rain – it sounds like great weather
for a football game is around the corner in sunny Florida.
Griese should find opportunities to do good things vs. the limp and
battered 49ers this week.
Philadelphia's Passing Attack vs. The Washington Defense (Good Matchup)
Against the woeful Cowboys' secondary, Donovan McNabb and company
bounced back from a poor game two weeks ago to post 15/27 for 345
yards, 4 TDs and 0 interceptions (6/134/3 to Terrell Owens, 1/59/1 to
Todd Pinkston). McNabb passed at will, Dorsey Levens gained 6.1 yards
per carry – it was all good for the Eagles last week. Realize that
McNabb had been struggling prior to the easy matchup, though, with
48/85 for 673 yards, 5 TDs and 1 interception to his credit in his
last 3 games (328 yards, 1 TD and 1 interception in the 2 previous
games combined). In any case, last week was a good week to be an
Eagles' owner.
Carson Palmer scraped together 24/39 for 217 yards, 1 TD and 2
interceptions vs. the Redskins last week – it wasn't a stellar
showing, but it was good enough to lead the Bengals to a 17-10
victory. Washington brings a top unit with them to Philadelphia,
averaging 181.4 passing yards allowed and only 7 thrown TDs to date.
Over the past 4 weeks, though, they've been softer than their season
average indicates, surrendering an average of 249 passing yards and
1.0 TDs per contest. Sean Taylor put up 7 solo tackles, 1 assist, an
interception, and 2 passes defensed to crack the top 5 among IDP DBs
last week.
Philadelphia comes into the game in good health, listing WR Todd
Pinkston (knee, probable) and TE L.J. Smith (hamstring, probable) as
does Washington (CB Fred Smoot has a sore shoulder, probable).
Injuries aren't a big factor in this phase of the game for either
squad.
The forecast for Lincoln Financial Field calls for a high of 64F with
a low of 44F and a 20% chance for rain. If that forecast holds,
weather won't have much of an impact on this game.
The up-and-down Eagles are up right now, while the Redskins' pass
defense has been slipping in recent games. Advantage, Philadelphia.
St. Louis' Passing Attack vs. The Buffalo Defense (Neutral Matchup)
Marc Bulger led his team to the top of the NFC West last week, tossing
23/34 for 262 yards, 1 TD and 0 interceptions during a game when Torry
Holt was sidelined by a concussion early in the contest (He's
questionable this week). Isaac Bruce led the team with 9 targets for
7/105/0 – 9 other players snagged at least 1 pass (Kevin Curtis
grabbed the TD, 3 for 3/39/1 on the day). Over the past 3 weeks,
Bulger is the 10th best fantasy QB, with 46/67 for 547 yards, 3 TDs
and 1 interception in 2 games. St. Louis' offense has revved up the
running game with Steven Jackson and Marshall Faulk recently, limiting
the Rams' reliance on the passing game.
Buffalo sports a highly-ranked pass D, averaging 177.6 yards allowed
per game (4th in the NFL) with 11 passing scores surrendered to date.
However, the Bills stumbled last week vs. New England, coughing up
19/35 for 233 yards, 2 TDs and 1 interception to Tom Brady and
company. They have been giving up an average of 140 yards and 1.3
passing scores over the past 4 weeks – yards are usually hard to come
by vs. the Bills, but they aren't shutting people out of the end-zone
lately. Lawyer Milloy was a great IDP DB play last week with 10 solo
tackles and 5 assists to his credit.
St. Louis includes WRs Torry Holt (concussion) and Dane Looker (ankle)
as questionable, while TE Cameron Cleeland (knee, probable) is also
listed. CB Troy Vincent (knee) and S Coy Wire (abdomen) are both
listed for Buffalo.
The forecast for Ralph Wilson Stadium calls for a high of 52F and a
low of 35F with a 30% chance for precipitation. If the moisture comes
down as snow, visibility could be an issue – rain mixed with sleet
would make the field and football slippery. Weather could be a factor
in this game.
St. Louis has a plethora of weapons, and should be able to capitalize
on whatever opportunities the Bills offer – the defense's home field
advantage and the weather will work against the dome-dwelling Rams,
though. This looks like a neutral matchup from where we sit.
Chicago's Passing Attack vs. The Indianapolis Defense (Neutral Matchup)
Both TDs scored by Chicago last week were due to players on units
other than the Bear's offense.
Craig Krenzel has notched 31/74 for 428 yards, 2 TDs and 3
interceptions to his credit over the past 3 games. Not exactly a
high-octane passing attack. Bobby Wade leads the team during that span
with 19 targets for 8/129/0. Bernard Berrian owns both TDs (3/92/2 on
8 chances). "Mr. Erratic" David Terrell has scraped up 14 targets for
6/95/0. There isn't a lot of fantasy juice to be squeezed from
Chicago's offense.
It's partly due to the success of their offense, but the Colts have
been woeful at pass defense all season. They are 31st in the NFL right
now, averaging 273.9 passing yards allowed per game, with 15 scores
surrendered to date – but they finally found a way to shut down an
opponent last week. David Carr crashed and burned last Sunday with
22/41 for 215 yards, 0 TDs and 3 interceptions – the Colts looked
pretty sharp, actually. They still have a long way to go (the team
averaged 249 passing yards and 1.5 TDs allowed in this phase over the
last 4 weeks), but they are showing signs of improvement. Bob Sanders
was a top IDP DB last week, with 8 solo tackles, 2 assists and a
fumble recovery.
The Colts' laundry list of injured players includes: S Mike Doss
(groin) and CB Nick Harper (shoulder), both questionable, and CB
Joseph Jefferson (knee, probable). TE John Gilmore has a sore chest
(probable) on the Bear's side of the ball.
The forecast for Soldier Field calls for a high of 45F and a low of
32F with a 20% chance of rain. Blustery winds are common in Chicago at
this time of year – that could be a factor in the passing game.
Chicago's pass offense is like an engine that has thrown a couple of
cylinders – out of whack and clanking, with little horsepower. The
Colts pass defense is showing signs of improving, but have been the
doormat of the NFL most of this season – this looks like an ugly but
neutral matchup from where we sit.
Miami's Passing Attack vs. The Seattle Defense (Neutral Matchup)
The Dolphins have a new head coach, and a new starting QB. Interim
coach Jim Bates announced that A.J. Feeley is being handed the top job
(again) starting this week. Here's the line on Feeley so far in
regular season: 62/114 for 658 yards, 2 TDs and 6 interceptions in 5
appearances. During the 2 games in which Feeley tossed his TDs (weeks
1 and 2), he targeted Randy McMichael 19 times (14/172/1) and Chris
Chambers 18 times (11/104/1). We expect Feeley to rely heavily on
these two now that he's under center again (they are the Dolphin's
best weapons in this phase of the game). Miami is one of the worst
teams in the NFL when it comes to protecting their QB, allowing 33
sacks to date (tied for second-worst in the NFL).
Considering the opponent, Seattle's pass D was adequate against the
Rams (23/34 for 262 yards, 1 TD and 0 interceptions) – but they
haven't played well recently, allowing an average of 235 passing yards
and 1.5 TDs per game over the last 4 weeks. The team ranks 20th in the
NFL surrendering an average of 221.6 passing yards per game this
season, with 11 scores given away to date – they are a sub-par unit
most of the time.
Miami's Jay Fiedler is listed as probable due to the after-effects of
a stinger, while WR Marty Booker is questionable (ankle). Seattle is
in good shape for this point in the season, with no new injuries of
note to report – S Ken Hamlin has a sore toe (probable).
The forecast for Qwest Field in Seattle calls for a high of 50F with a
low of 37F and a 20% chance for rain. It sounds like a really nice
autumn day is on tap in the Northwest.
Feeley has been erratic at his best, and terrible at his worst this
season (13/27 for 137 yards, 0 TDs and 2 interceptions vs.
Pittsburgh). Seattle is sub-par in this phase of the game – this is an
even matchup between not-too-good squads.
Seattle's Passing Attack vs. The Miami Defense (Neutral Matchup)
Seattle's Matt Hasselbeck is choking in the big games this season (and
his receivers continue to drop easy completions to compound the
problems). 15/36 for 172 yards, 0 TDs and 1 interception (4 field
goals told the tale of the Seahawks' scoring last week) is just not
acceptable at this phase of his development. Over the last 3 weeks,
he's been unworthy of a fantasy start more often than not (53/94 for
658 yards, 4 TDs and 2 interceptions in 3 games, 18th-ranked fantasy
QB in fantasy points per game at 17.0). Only Darrell Jackson has been
worth a plug nickel, with 27 targets for 14/218/2 to his credit in
that span. Koren Robinson has converted 18 chances into 7/141/1 in 3
games. It's ugly in this phase of the game for the Seahawks.
Miami has allowed the least passing yards per game on average this
season, 150.1 per contest, with 10 TDs given away. They haven't been
that stout recently, though, with an average of 205 passing yards and
1.7 scores given up over the past 4 weeks. Josh McCown was the QB who
faced the Dolphins before the bye week, and he managed 18/31 for 162
yards, 1 TD and 0 interceptions against the Fins. They are a top
secondary, but the unit has stumbled of late as their season of
futility drags on towards its sorry conclusion.
Seattle lists QB Matt Hasselbeck (thigh, probable), while Seattle says
S Yeremiah Bell has a sore ankle (probable).
The forecast for Qwest Field in Seattle calls for a high of 50F with a
low of 37F and a 20% chance for rain. It sounds like a really nice
autumn day is on tap in the Northwest.
Miami is fading, the Seahawks are collapsing – sounds ugly but even to us.
Carolina's Passing Attack vs. The Arizona Defense (Neutral Matchup)
Jake Delhomme and Muhsin Muhammad connected for three touchdown passes
this past Sunday. In the past three games, Delhomme has thrown to
Muhammad 35 times for 22 completions yielding 323 yards and five TD
passes – they are really in synch coming into this contest. Keary
Colbert has seen 20 balls for 11/199/0, while Ricky Proehl has also
caught 11 balls in that span (24 for 11/160/0). With the rushing game
sputtering (the team has put their top 3 backs on IR in recent weeks)
and no improvement likely for the rest of 2004, expect all three
receivers to get lots of opportunities to make good things happen.
Colbert owners should know that Delhomme has targeted Colbert in the
end-zone multiple times in the past 3 weeks, but has thrown the ball
off-target (high) in those chances. Delhomme has a fractured bone in
the tip of his right thumb, but coach Fox indicated that the injury
likely won't keep him out of the game. Stay tuned though through the
rest of the week.
Arizona battered Kurt Warner last week, sacking him 6 times en route
to a 17-14 victory (Warner managed 19/30 for 193 yards, 1 TD and 0
interceptions between trips to the turf). The Cardinals are 7th in the
NFL with 24 sacks to their credit this season, and have limited their
opposition to an average of 166 passing yards per game over the past 4
weeks (1.3 TDs allowed per outing). They rank 13th in the league so
far this season averaging 206 passing yards allowed per contest (10
total TDs) – the secondary is heading in the right direction, as
attested by the 40 yard disparity between their recent games and their
season average. This is a team that is tough to attack through the
air. However, keep in mind the fact that the Panthers protect Delhomme
well (only 12 sacks allowed to date, 4th-least in the NFL).
In this phase of the game, Carolina lists Delhomme as questionable
(right thumb fracture) and TE Kris Mangum (neck, questionable), while
Arizona has CB Renaldo Hill down as probable (shoulder).
The forecast for Bank of America Stadium calls for a high of 69F and a
low of 51F with a 40% chance for precipitation. If the rain comes down
hard at game-time, the field and ball could both be slick and harder
to handle than usual.
Delhomme and the Panthers are "on" right now, but the Cardinals aren't
the joke that they used to be, especially in recent weeks. This looks
like a neutral matchup from where we sit.
Houston's Passing Attack vs. The Green Bay Defense (Neutral Matchup)
David Carr just couldn't get the job done last week – against one of
the league's worst secondary units (Indianapolis) – he ended the day
with 22/41 for 215 yards, 0 TDs and 3 interceptions. Andre Johnson
hauled in 6/59/0 to lead the team – there is not much in the way of
fantasy points around the Texans' aerial unit lately, folks. Carr has
only hit 1 TD in his last 3 games, and he's tossed 3 interceptions in
that span (70/116 for 736 yards, 1 TD and 3 interceptions, 23rd ranked
fantasy QB during that 3 week time period). Andre Johnson has seen the
most passes (by far) in the last 3 weeks, converting 31 chances into
18/170/0 – Jabar Gaffney has done more with less (22 for 14/215/0).
This passing attack is struggling right now.
Green Bay just barely survived the Viking onslaught last week, and it
wasn't due to a stunning performance in the secondary – Daunte
Culpepper racked up 27/44 for 363 yards, 4 TDs and 0 interceptions on
the day. Over the past 4 weeks, the Packers have surrendered an
average of 277 passing yards and 2.3 TDs per contest – not very
impressive defense. They are the 25th ranked pass D in the land this
season, giving away an average of 232.7 passing yards per game, with
20 scores given up in 9 games – they've been giving away more than 2
TDs per game on average all season long.
The Packers list S Darren Sharper (knee, probable) while the Texans
say they have a clean bill of health in this phase of the game.
The forecast for Reliant Stadium calls for a high of 75F and a low of
58F, with a 40% chance for rain. If the weather looks too threatening
before game-time, the retractable roof will get closed – weather
shouldn't be a factor in this game.
Houston is struggling, while the Packers are just plain soft. This
looks like a neutral matchup with neither unit holding a clear
advantage over the other.
Cleveland's Passing Attack vs. The New York Jets' Defense (Neutral Matchup)
Jeff Garcia is crumbling at the mid-point of the season, managing
22/42 for 256 yards, 0 TDs and 2 interceptions in his last 2 games
(33rd ranked fantasy QB during that span). With numbers like that,
it's no wonder none of his receivers are playing well (Frisman Jackson
leads the club over the past 3 weeks with 7/87/0 on 8 targets). Garcia
got the hook for Kelly Holcomb last week (5/9 for 64 yards, 1 TD and 1
interception) and it looks like he's on a short leash this week.
The Jets did a poor job of handling arguably the NFL's worst starting
QB, Kyle Boller, allowing 19/33 for 213 yards, 2 TDs and 0
interceptions to the Raven's simple passing attack last week. It was
not a high point of the Jets' season. They've been luke-warm in this
phase all season, averaging 206.1 passing yards per game, with 11
scores surrendered to date. Over the past 4 weeks, they've averaged
190 passing yards allowed per game, but have coughed up 1.5 TDs per
outing. The Jets field an unexciting, but not terrible, pass defense.
Cleveland's receiving corps has been decimated by injuries, with Andre
King (ankle, doubtful) and Andre Davis (toe, questionable) joining TE
Kellen Winslow (broken leg, IR) as unavailable for play last week. TE
Chad Mustard has a foot injury (doubtful). The Jets were without Ss
Rashad Washington (foot, questionable) and Jon McGraw (groin,
probable) last week, and have lost reserve S Derek Pagel to IR (calf).
Injuries have adversely affected both squads in recent weeks.
The forecast for Cleveland Browns' Stadium calls for a high of 58F and
a low of 34F with a 30% chance for precipitation. If moisture falls
thickly at game time, the field and ball could both get slick,
adversely affecting both teams' footing and ball handling. Don't rule
out the precipitation turning to snow.
Garcia is struggling, the Jets are struggling and they are not very
strong even on a good week – sounds even to us.
Tennessee's Passing Attack vs. The Jacksonville Defense (Neutral Matchup)
Tennessee's Steve McNair was under center the last time these teams
clashed, and he managed 16/26 for 143 yards, 0 TDs and 1 interception
vs. their division rivals. The team hopes that McNair can return to
the lineup (if his bruised sternum is healthy enough) this week. RB
Chris Brown is having a lot of trouble with his injured toe, which is
very swollen and sore as of Wednesday (coach Fisher actually used the
term "doubtful" to refer to his status as of Tuesday) – the Titans
would love to have McNair to lean on if Brown can't play. Billy Volek
has tossed 48/76 for 544 yards, 4 TDs and 2 interceptions in relief of
McNair over the past 2 games – he's a viable plan B if McNair can't go
when game time rolls around.
Jacksonville's pass D has been sub-par of late, allowing an average of
248 passing yards and 1.3 TDs per game over the past 4 weeks, but they
shut down the battered Lions last week (11/33 for 121 yards, 0 TDs and
1 interception for Joey Harrington) – that was more a function of the
Lions' injury-riddled personnel than Jacksonville's efforts, though.
This season, the Jags are the 17th ranked pass D in the land,
averaging 219.3 passing yards allowed per game, and they have
surrendered 11 passing scores to date. Rashean Mathis was a top IDP DB
last week, with 3 solo tackles, an interception and a whopping 5
passes defensed to his credit.
Tennessee lists WR Tyrone Calico as out (knee), and says that McNair
is questionable to play this week. They also list TE Erron Kinney
(calf, questionable). CB Juran Bolden (groin, probable) is listed by
Jacksonville.
The forecast for Alltel Stadium calls for a high of 80F and a low of
66F with a 20% chance for rain. That sounds like good weather for a
football game to us.
The Titans have injury issues among their personnel, and didn't have a
strong outing the last time they played Jacksonville. Jacksonville's
pass D has been sliding in recent weeks, though – this looks like a
neutral matchup to us.
Jacksonville's Passing Attack vs. The Tennessee Defense (Neutral Matchup)
Byron Leftwich was under center for Jacksonville's victory over
Tennessee back in week 3 (14/20 for 124 yards, 1 TD and 0
interceptions), hitting the injured TE George Wrighster for his lone
TD. As both players are likely to be out of the lineup this week,
history doesn't help us much with an analysis of this week 11 matchup.
David Garrard had a strong outing in his first 2004 start, with 19/36
for 198 yards, 2 TDs and 0 interceptions to his credit, including a
game-winning TD pass in OT to Jimmy Smith. Smith saw 14 targets
(7/109/1) last week, by far the most targets on the team (Fred Taylor
was second with 5 targets for 3/21/0). LaBrandon Toefield reeled in
the other TD (2 targets for 2/18/1). It was an auspicious start for
the Jags' replacement QB.
Tennessee was robbed of a game last week. The secondary held Craig
Krenzel to 10/28 for 116 yards, 0 TDs and 2 interceptions, and none of
the offensive players got over the goal-line, yet the Bears pulled out
the victory in OT by sacking Volek in the end-zone for a safety.
Anyway, the Titans have been very tough in this phase of the game over
the past 4 weeks, allowing a mere 151 yards and .3 TDs per game during
that span. Those are significantly better numbers than the Titans'
season average would suggest (15th in the NFL allowing an average of
206.6 passing yards per game, with 12 TDs surrendered to date). The
secondary has been playing well of late.
However, the unit took a blow this week when they lost S Tank Williams
for the season (reconstructive knee surgery is required for his
torn-up left knee (ACL). S Lance Schulters has been sidelined for many
weeks due to a foot injury (out). S Scott McGarrahan sprained his
right ankle in the game Sunday – he's questionable to play as of
Wednesday. Byron Leftwich is officially doubtful to play, but he'll
miss this one due to his strained knee. TE George Wrighster is out
(back).
The forecast for Alltel Stadium calls for a high of 80F and a low of
66F with a 20% chance for rain. That sounds like good weather for a
football game to us.
Tennessee's pass D has been playing well lately, but lost yet another
player this week. David Garrard comes into the game on a roll, and has
the home-field advantage behind him – we call this a fairly even
matchup, with neither side favored over the other.
Kansas City's Passing Attack vs. The New England Defense (Neutral Matchup)
Trent Green threw for a lot of yardage last week (22/33 for 311 yards,
1 TD and 2 interceptions), but couldn't rally his team past the New
Orleans Saints. Eddie Kennison finally caught a TD pass (1 in 7 games
this year) with 8 targets for 7/121/1 to his credit. Tony Gonzalez was
second with 9 for 6/71/0; Johnnie Morton was third on the team with 6
targets for 4/59/0. The usual suspects snagged Greens' passes – these
3 are far-and-away the most targeted receivers on the squad, with 23,
29, and 21 balls thrown to each player, respectively, over the last 3
weeks.
New England deconstructed the Bills' passers last week, dominating
them so thoroughly that the team did not gain over 90 yards passing in
60 minutes (9/21 for 81 yards, 0 TDs and 4 interceptions). That's some
impressive work at the NFL level. The Patriots are averaging 173
passing yards and 1 TD allowed per game over the past 4 weeks (204
passing yards per game with 8 TDs given away to date this season).
Even when the team is lacking some of their best defenders, the
Patriots find a way to make things miserable for the opposition.
As we've discussed before, the Patriots' secondary is very thin right
now. Asante Samuel was active last Sunday but did not play (presumably
due to his injured shoulder), while fellow CBs Ty Law (foot, out) and
Tyrone Poole (knee, doubtful) have both missed multiple games due to
their injuries. WR Troy Brown has been playing DB for two weeks now in
order to provide some sort of depth to the unit. TEs Kris Wilson
(ankle) is doubtful, while Jason Dunn is probable (back). WR Dante
Hall has a sore hand (probable).
The forecast for Arrowhead Stadium on Monday night calls for a high of
46F and a low of 32F with a 20% chance for rain. If the plains winds
kick up it will feel a lot colder than 32F at game time – but that
shouldn't bother the outdoor-stadium New England Patriots too much.
Kansas City has a talented trio of receivers for Green to target, but
the Patriots are no push-over in this phase of the game. Home field
advantage will help level the playing field between these squads – we
think this looks like an even matchup between top-performing units.
Washington's Passing Attack vs. The Philadelphia Defense (Tough Matchup)
Mark Brunell finally played his way out of the Redskins' lineup, with
an abysmal 1/8 for 6 yards, 0 TDs and 1 interception performance on
Sunday. Coach Gibbs has seen enough, and pulled the plug on Brunell –
now Patrick Ramsey will get a shot at sparking the sputtering
Redskins' pass attack. He managed to complete 18/37 for 210 yards, 1
TD and 2 interceptions last week in relief of Brunell – the two
targeted Laveranues Coles twice as much as anyone else (18 for 6/74/0)
last week. Rod Gardner was second on the team with 9 targets but only
managed 2/18/0 in his chances. TE Chris Cooley caught the TD (3 for
1/9/1).
Philadelphia spanked Dallas on Monday night 49-21, allowing 21/30 for
254 yards, 2 TDs and 1 interception to Vinny Testaverde and TE Jason
Witten during the rout. Over the past 4 weeks, the Eagles have
averaged 214 passing yards given up, with 1.5 TDs surrendered per game
in that span. They are tied for 1st in the NFL with 28 sacks to date,
but rank in the middle of the NFL pack in yards allowed per game
(averaging 221 per game this year, with 11 TDs given up to date).
The Redskins say that WR Rod Gardner (ankle) is probable to play.
Philadelphia's S Quintin Mikell (ankle, knee) and S J.R. Reed
(hamstring) a both probable to play.
The forecast for Lincoln Financial Field calls for a high of 64F with
a low of 44F and a 20% chance for rain. If that forecast holds,
weather won't be a factor in this game.
Ramsey has been around the block before this start, so he knows what's
in store for him – a large dose of blitzing and a hostile crowd
supporting the defense. This is a tough way to begin a stint as the
Redskins' starter, but Ramsey has some weapons to bring to the table,
too.
New York Jets' Passing Attack vs. The Cleveland Defense (Tough Matchup)
Quincy Carter was mediocre in his first start of the season, managing
13/22 for 175 yards, 0 TDs and 0 interceptions. It was not a fantasy
performance for the ages, but at least he didn't stink up the place.
Santana Moss emerged as the team's top receiver when the dust settled,
with 3/75/0 (Justin McCareins was second with 2/30/0). All in all, it
was a very unexciting start to Carter's reign as top dog for the Jets.
Cleveland's pass D limited rookie sensation Ben Roethlisberger to
10/16 for 134 yards, 0 TDs and 1 interception (but lost by 14 points
anyway). The Browns aren't usually that good, ranking 16th in the NFL
allowing an average of 214.4 passing yards per contest – however, they
are tied for 3rd-least passing scores allowed to date (6). The Browns
are locked in a tie for dead last in the NFL in QB sacks, with only 14
to their credit (2 last week vs. Pittsburgh).
The Jets list Pennington as out (rotator cuff/shoulder injury), while
TE Chris Baker (hand) is probable. Cleveland is in good shape with no
new injuries to report.
The forecast for Cleveland Browns' Stadium calls for a high of 58F and
a low of 34F with a 30% chance for precipitation. If moisture falls
thickly at game time, the field and ball could both get slick,
adversely affecting both teams' footing and ball handling. Don't rule
out snow.
The Jets are lack-luster with Carter under center – the Browns
mediocre at pass D (although they are tough to score on) – home field
advantage swings this one to Cleveland.
Atlanta's Passing Attack vs. The New York Giants' Defense (Tough Matchup)
Michael Vick is the 6th best fantasy QB over the past 3 weeks, but it
isn't because of his passing (26/40 for 399 yards, 3 TDs and 1
interception in 2 games) – it's because of his increasing role in the
rushing attack (21/188/0). That said, it's no surprise to find
Peerless Price, the top fantasy WR from Atlanta, outside of the top 20
fantasy WRs (4/79/2 in 2 games, 22nd in fantasy points per game during
that 3 week span). TE Alge Crumpler is the fantasy star in the
receiving phase of the game (11/204/1 over the past 3 weeks, 5th best
fantasy TE during that span) in TE required leagues. One big problem
for Vick – sacks: the team has coughed up 30 to date, 4th most in the
NFL.
The Giants were tough on Josh McCown last week, giving up a paltry
12/24 for 90 yards, 0 TDs and 0 interceptions during the contest. They
have a top-ten secondary this season, ranking 8th in the NFL allowing
182.7 passing yards per game to date (13 scores surrendered, though).
They've averaged a mere 156 passing yards and 1.0 TDs allowed per game
over the past 4 weeks – this is a strong unit, folks.
The Falcons come into the game in good health, excepting WR Brian
Finneran (pectoral injury, questionable). The Giants list S Jack
Brewer (lower leg, out) – he missed last week's game. S Gibril Wilson
has a sore neck (questionable).
The forecast for Giant's Stadium calls for a high of 61F with a low of
44F and a 30% chance for precipitation. If the skies open up at game
time, the field could get slick and the ball may be harder to handle.
Atlanta has the potential to be explosive due to Vick's laser-like
passes, but the team is run oriented and the OL is not doing a good
job pass-blocking. The Giants deploy an upper-echelon secondary – in
the hostile environs of Giant's Stadium, this is a tough assignment
for Vick and company.
New York Giants' Passing Attack vs. The Atlanta Defense (Tough Matchup)
Kurt Warner is out. Eli Manning is in – until we see the rookie
playing vs. pro DBs at full speed for a full game, all bets are off as
far as the prospects for Amani Toomer, Ike Hilliard, and Jeremy
Shockey. This is a good week to be a Tiki Barber owner, though.
In pre-season (splitting snaps with Warner) – for what it's worth –
Manning managed 7/13 for 90 yards, 0 TDs and 0 interceptions vs. KC;
9/15 for 117 yards, 0 TDs and 0 interceptions vs. Carolina; 4/14 for
20 yards, 0 TDs and 2 interceptions vs. the Jets; and 4/7 for 99
yards, 0 TDs and 0 interceptions vs. Baltimore. Notice anything about
those totals? How about 0 TDs to date. In week 1, vs. Philadelphia, he
put up 3/9 for 66 yards, 0 TDs and 0 interceptions in garbage time.
Atlanta's pass defense has not been awe-inspiring of late, allowing an
average of 298 yards and 2.0 passing scores per contest over the past
4 weeks. Brian Griese touched them for 19/26 for 174 yards, 2 TDs and
1 interception last week – considering that his 174 yards is included
in the above average (over the past 4 weeks), it's clear that the
Falcons have been giving up yardage in chunks and TDs quite often. One
thing the Falcons do right is bring pressure to bear on the opposing
QB – the team is 4th in the NFL with 27 sacks to their credit to date
– that's bad news for Manning, as the Giants lead the NFL with 40
sacks surrendered in 9 games.
Manning's top WR, Amani Toomer, was roughed up in the game last week
(not listed). Atlanta's DBs are in good shape.
The forecast for Giant's Stadium calls for a high of 61F with a low of
44F and a 30% chance for precipitation. If the skies open up at game
time, the field could get slick and the ball may be harder to handle.
Manning is a rookie QB, stepping into the starting lineup in the
middle of an NFL season. That's a tall order for any player, anywhere,
at any level.
Arizona' s Passing Attack vs. The Carolina Defense (Tough Matchup)
Arizona's Josh McCown has been growing into his role as starting QB
this year, and he's definitely been careful with the ball lately –
39/73 for 353 yards, 2 TDs and 0 interceptions over the past 3 games –
but he just isn't producing at a level that warrants consideration as
a starter in fantasy circles (those numbers put him at #32 among all
QBs over the past 3 weeks (fantasy points per game, averaging
9.07)).He was very low-profile last week, tossing 12/24 for 90 yards,
0 TDs and 0 interceptions. Needless to say, none of the receivers on
the team were exciting fantasy-wise. Anquan Boldin leads the team in
targets over the past 3 weeks, with 25 for 14/118/0; Bryant Johnson is
second with 21 for 9/90/1; Larry Fitzgerald is third in that span with
17 for 6/94/1. Fitzgerald and Johnson need to convert more of their
opportunities if the Cardinal's trio is to live up to their fantasy
potential.
Carolina was very nasty vs. San Francisco last week, snagging 4
interceptions from Tim Rattay (22/37 for 284 yards and 1 TD besides
the turnovers). They've been very stout in this phase of the game all
year, ranking 9th in the NFL allowing an average of 192.4 passing
yards per game, with a mere 5 passing scores allowed to date (the
fewest passing scores surrendered in the NFL so far). Lately they've
been a little more generous with yardage (215 yards per game on
average over the past 4 weeks), but just as stingy with TDs (.5 scores
per game on average). Mike Minter was all over the place last week,
with 7 solo tackles, 2 assists, a sack and a forced fumble – which
catapulted him into the weekly top ten among IDP DBs.
Carolina's secondary has been without CB Artrell Hawkins for a few
weeks (hamstring, questionable). Arizona lists WR Nate Poole
(hamstring, questionable) and QB Josh McCown (neck, probable).
The forecast for Bank of America Stadium calls for a high of 69F and a
low of 51F with a 40% chance for precipitation. If the rain comes down
hard at game-time, the field and ball could both be slick and harder
to handle than usual.
Arizona brings a talented-but-underachieving bunch to Charlotte, where
one of the best secondaries in the NFL will make for a formidable test
of McCown's skills. This is a tough matchup for the young Cards.
New Orleans' Passing Attack vs. The Denver Defense (Tough Matchup)
Aaron Brooks renewed his bond with Joe Horn last week, tossing Horn 8
balls (5/167/1) en route to a strong fantasy outing (15/27 for 259
yards, 1 TD and 1 interception passing, with 4/1/1 rushing). It was a
much better showing than his sub-par 16/29 for 173 yards, 1 TD and 1
interception game vs. the Chargers two weeks ago. It's fair to say
that Brooks has been up and down in this phase of the game lately.
Denver stifled David Carr and his compatriots two weeks ago (before
Denver's bye), allowing 21/44 for 245 yards, 0 TDs and 0 interceptions
in 60 minutes of play. They are averaging 229 passing yards and 1 TD
allowed per game over the past 4 weeks. That's not a strong as their
season average of 168.1 passing yards per game allowed (2nd in the
NFL) would indicate – the team has given up 6 scores in this phase to
date, tied for second-least in the NFL. The Broncos are slightly
off-pace – but they are still one of the best pass defenses around.
New Orleans lists TE Ernie Conwell as questionable to play (shoulder).
S John Lynch is also questionable (back/tailbone injury).
This game will be played in the Superdome – weather isn't a factor.
Brooks is coming into this game with some momentum at his back, but
the Broncos are a legitimate playoff contender with a stout pass D.
Advantage, Denver.
The Pittsburgh Passing Attack vs. The Cincinnati Defense (Tough Matchup)
Ben Roethlisberger had a disappointing fantasy outing last week, with
10/16 for 134 yards, 0 TDs and 1 interception passing (7/38/0 rushing)
– Plaxico Burress almost squeezed the ball into the end-zone on one
play, though (it ended up being spotted just short of the goal-line,
setting up a (surprise, surprise) Jerome Bettis TD plunge). The low
fantasy point total was a combination of game plan (the team ran the
ball 47 times vs. 16 passes) and bad luck (Burress just short on the
TD). Roethlisberger is the 20th ranked fantasy QB over the past 3
weeks, with 39/58 for 513 yards, 4 TDs and 2 interceptions to his
credit during that span. Back in week 4, Roethlisberger had a
workmanlike 17/25 for 174 yards, 1 TD and 0 interceptions against this
Bengals' squad.
Cincinnati throttled Mark Brunell last week (1/8 for 6 yards, 0 TDs
and 1 interception), but was more giving to replacement Patrick Ramsey
(18/37 for 210 yards, 1 TD and 2 interceptions) – the Redskins ended
up with 19/46 for 216 yards, 1 TD and 3 interceptions on the day.
Cincinnati is 10th in the NFL averaging 199.7 passing yards allowed
per game (13 TDs to date) this season – over the past 4 weeks, the
averages are 193 passing yards and 1 TD per game allowed. The Bengals
field a very respectable pass D, as you can see. Tory James was a
top-ten IDP DB last week, with 7 solo tackles, an interception and a
pass defensed.
Cincinnati lists CB Rashad Bauman (Achilles, questionable) this week –
he's missed multiple games due to this injury. CB Deltha O'Neal
(elbow, questionable) and CB Reggie Myles (chest, probable) are also
listed. Pittsburgh's aerial unit is in good health at this stage of
the season, though TEs Matt Cushing (wrist) and Jay Riemersma (groin)
are both questionable, while Hines Ward is probable (blister on foot).
The forecast for Paul Brown Stadium calls for a high of 59F with a low
of 34F and a 30% chance of precipitation. If the moisture falls as
snow, visibility could be an issue. If it is rain/sleet and falls
thickly around game-time, footing and ball handling could become
issues for both teams.
Both teams are solid in this phase of the game – home field advantage
tips the scales to the Bengals, but not by much.
The Cincinnati Passing Attack vs. The Pittsburgh Defense (Tough Matchup)
Carson Palmer managed 20/37 for 164 yards, 1 TD and 2 interceptions in
his last start vs. the Steelers (back in week 4). He hit 24/39 for 217
yards, 1 TD and 2 interceptions in the victory over Washington last
week, targeting Chad Johnson (14 for 6/89/0) and T.J. Houshmandzadeh
(11 for 7/59/0) over all others (Kelly Washington was 3rd with 4 for
4/23/0). Palmer is continuing to suffer the growing pains that almost
all young NFL QBs experience – he has 65/107 for 676 yards, 2 TDs and
3 interceptions to his credit in his last 3 games (21st fantasy QB in
the land during that span).
Pittsburgh manhandled the Browns last week, leading to Jeff Garcia
getting benched for non-production. Overall, the Browns managed 12/25
for 174 yards, 1 TD and 2 interceptions against the tough Steelers.
Over the past 4 weeks, teams average 164 passing yards and 1 score per
game against the Steelers (5th-ranked secondary in the NFL allowing an
average of 178.3 passing yards per game, with 8 scores allowed in 9
contests). As you can see, they are right on their season pace at the
moment. Troy Polamalu was a top IDP DB last week with 4 solo tackles,
2 interceptions and 2 passes defensed when the game was over.
Pittsburgh continues to do quite well despite the injury to CB Chad
Scott (quadriceps, out). Cincinnati reports WR Kevin Walter is
probable (ankle).
The forecast for Paul Brown Stadium calls for a high of 59F with a low
of 34F and a 30% chance of precipitation. If the moisture falls as
snow, visibility could be an issue. If it is rain/sleet and falls
thickly around game-time, footing and ball handling could become
issues for both teams.
Palmer is fighting through growing pains, while the Steelers' pass D
is fully mature. Advantage, Pittsburgh.
Oakland's Passing Attack vs. The San Diego Defense (Tough Matchup)
Kerry Collins had a decent but not spectacular outing vs. the Chargers
back in week 8, tossing 24/39 for 263 yards, 1 TD and 2 interceptions
during that game. In his last 2 games, Collins has thrown 44/71 for
494 yards, 1 TD and 3 interceptions – not exactly stellar. 20/32 for
231 yards, 0 TDs and 1 interception was his tally after the narrow
victory over Carolina in week 9 – he targeted Jerry Porter the most (6
for 2/28/0), but got the most production out of Ron Curry (4 for
4/63/0) and Doug Gabriel (5 for 4/60/0).
San Diego's pass D has grown more respectable as the season has
progressed, and went into the bye week after limiting the Saints to
16/29 for 173 yards, 1 TD and 1 interception in week 9. Over their
past 3 games, the Chargers have averaged 190 passing yards and .7 TDs
surrendered per contest – pretty stout pass D, wouldn't you say? It's
much better than their season average would indicate (239.8 passing
yards allowed per game, 27th in the NFL, with 11 scores surrendered to
date).
Both teams come into the game off a bye-week – they should be rested
and ready to rock-and-roll. Oakland lists TE Courtney Anderson as out
(knee); WR Johnnie Moran (foot, doubtful); while WR Alvis Whitted
(hip) is questionable. San Diego says CB Drayton Florence is
questionable (ankle).
The forecast for Network Associates Coliseum calls for a high of 62F
and a low of 44F with a 10% chance for rain – a beautiful California
day is on tap for this game.
Oakland's attack has been sputtering since Collins took the keys to
the attack, while San Diego continues to improve as they look towards
the playoffs. Advantage, San Diego.
Buffalo's Passing Attack vs. The St. Louis Defense (Tough Matchup)
Drew Bledsoe was totally inept vs. his old team last week, tossing
only 8 completions out of 19 attempts for 76 yards, 0 TDs and 3
interceptions. He's in the twilight of his career at this point, with
133/239 for 1551 yards, 9 TDs and 10 interceptions to his credit in
2004 (31st fantasy QB in the land in fantasy points per game this
season). Unless you have Eric Moulds on your team, we suggest you look
elsewhere for your starters (Moulds has caught 52/662/4 in 9 games,
putting him at #16 among fantasy WRs in the first half of 2004).
Rookie J.P. Losman saw his first action of 2004 with 1 completion on 2
attempts for 5 yards and an interception in garbage time.
St. Louis frustrated the "Hands of Stone" Seattle squad last week,
limiting Matt Hasselbeck to 15/36 for 172 yards, 0 TDs and 1
interception. They have been mediocre all season, ranking 21st in the
NFL allowing an average of 222.6 passing yards per game (an average of
200 per contest over the past 4 weeks) and a total of 13 passing
scores (1.7 per game in the last 4 weeks). They are usually a fairly
generous bunch. Jerametrius Butler was one of the stingy players last
week, racking up 5 solo tackles, an interception and 3 passes defensed
(top ten IDP DB).
Buffalo lists WR Josh Reed (knee, doubtful). St. Louis' S Antuan
Edwards (groin, questionable) and CB Tod McBride (hamstring, not
listed) both missed last week's game.
The forecast for Ralph Wilson Stadium calls for a high of 52F and a
low of 35F with a 30% chance for precipitation. If the moisture comes
down as snow, visibility could be an issue – rain mixed with sleet
would make the field and football slippery. Weather could be a factor
in this game.
Buffalo and Bledsoe come into this game stone-cold, while the Rams
defense is upbeat. Advantage, St. Louis.
San Francisco's Passing Attack vs. The Tampa Bay Defense (Bad Matchup)
Tim Rattay had a hard time with the Panther's tough secondary last
week, hitting 22/37 for 284 yards, 1 TD – but 4 interceptions marred
his effort and helped bring about a Panther victory. Eric Johnson (10
for 6/71/0) and Brandon Lloyd (8 for 5/62/1) were far-and-away his
favorite targets last week, as they have been for the past 3 weeks (19
for 12/134/0 to Johnson in that span; 27 for 14/200/2 to Lloyd). The
49ers OL is not helping matters – their poor pass blocking has led to
29 QB sacks, 5th-most in the NFL.
Tampa Bay remains in the top tier of NFL pass defenses, allowing an
average of 168.2 yards and a total of 11 TDs to date. Over the past 4
weeks, their pace is 188 passing yards and 1.3 scores surrendered per
game, with a tally of 8/16 for 147 yards, 1 TD and 1 interception
given up to the run-oriented Falcons last week. Tampa is tough to
throw on, as usual.
San Francisco is in good shape, while the Buccaneers list S Dwight
Smith (knee, probable) and S Jermaine Phillips (arm, out).
The forecast for Raymond James Stadium calls for a high of 84F and a
low of 67F with a 20% chance for rain – it sounds like great weather
for a football game is around the corner in sunny Florida.
Rattay struggled with accuracy in the face of pressure last week (4
sacks) – Tampa and Simeon Rice will try and follow that blue-print
this week. Advantage, Tampa Bay.
Dallas' Passing Attack vs. The Baltimore Defense (Bad Matchup)
Vinny Testaverde is relying heavily on TE Jason Witten in recent
weeks. He leads the team with 26 targets in 3 weeks, and has reeled in
an amazing 92% of his chances (24/314/3 over that span). Keyshawn
Johnson is the second option right now, with 21 targets for 11/191/2.
Other than those 2 guys, you should be looking elsewhere for fantasy
starters, though. Eddie George is third on the team with 5/52/0 during
those 3 weeks. Testaverde is the 14th best fantasy QB over the past 3
weeks, with 58/84 for 696 yards, 5 TDs and 7 interceptions in 3 games.
Baltimore grounded the Jets' Quincy Carter last week, limiting him to
13/22 for 175 yards, 0 TDs and 0 interceptions (LaMont Jordan threw an
interception, too). They've been frustrating people all season,
averaging 178.4 passing yards allowed per game (6th in the NFL) and
have only given away 6 scores in this phase to date. They average 165
yards and .3 TDs per game over the past 4 weeks – anyway you look at
it, the Ravens are an elite pass D. Did we mention they lead the
league in sacks, with 28? Ed Reed was an IDP monster last week among
DBs, with 7 solo tackles, an assist, an interception and a pass
defensed.
WR Quincy Morgan is not listed this week. Baltimore says Deion Sanders
is questionable to play with his injured toe (Sanders missed last
week's game), while CB Chris McAlister has a neck injury
(questionable).
The forecast for M & T Bank Stadium calls for a high of 67F and a low
of 48F with a 30% chance for precipitation. If the rain falls thickly
at game time, the field and ball could become even more challenging
than usual to navigate/handle.
Dallas has been depleted by injuries, and they rely heavily on 2
players. The Ravens are an elite pass D – this is a bad matchup for
the Cowboys.
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