Passing Matchups - Week 11
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Posted 11/24 by Mark Wimer and Joe Bryant, Exclusive to Footballguys.com
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Hi Folks,
Here's our look at the Passing Matchups for this week.
PLEASE NOTE: This does NOT replace the Cheatsheet ranking. The Cheatsheet rankings
are the final say on where we see a player for that week. The Matchup Breakdowns
are simply one more tool in the box when it comes to helping choose your lineup.
Also note, just because a player has a "bad" matchup, it does NOT
mean he's not a starter in your league. If Peyton Manning is playing the toughest
pass defense in the league, that just means he's got a tough matchup that week.
He's also your starter unless you're loaded at QB. In the same way, if the worst
QB on your roster has a "great" matchup that week, it doesn't necessarily
mean he's your starter. It means we think he'll fare better than normal that
week.
Bottom line is that the cheatsheets are the final say.
Let's jump to it.
Joe
**************************************
Joe Bryant
Owner - www.Footballguys.com
Notes for Week 12 Matchups: In order to release these matchups in a timely
manner (due to the NFL's Thanksgiving games), the injury information used to
compose this set of matchups is derived from unofficial sources, including Footballguys.com's
Monday Injury Wrap-Up and local-market media reports. Check the NFL's official
injury report later in the week for full details regarding your players' status.
Also, preliminary statistics (compiled before the Monday Night Football game
between New England and Kansas City) were used to compose parts of the text
- there may be slight differences between various offensive players' rankings
as reported in the text of these matchups and the "final" statistical
reports issued by Footballguys on Tuesday afternoon.
Quick Index
Great Matchups
Atlanta's Passing Attack vs. The New Orleans' Defense (Great Matchup)
Denver's Passing Attack vs. The Oakland Defense (Great Matchup)
San Diego's Passing Attack vs. The Kansas City Defense (Great Matchup)
Good Matchups
Chicago's Passing Attack vs. The Dallas Defense (Good Matchup)
Indianapolis' Passing Attack vs. The Detroit Defense (Good Matchup)
Jacksonville's Passing Attack vs. The Minnesota Defense (Good Matchup)
Philadelphia's Passing Attack vs. The New York Giants' Defense (Good Matchup)
Tennessee's Passing Attack vs. The Houston Defense (Good Matchup)
St. Louis' Passing Attack vs. The Green Bay Defense (Good Matchup)
Green Bay's Passing Attack vs. The St. Louis Defense (Good Matchup)
Kansas City's Passing Attack vs. The San Diego Defense (Good Matchup)
Neutral Matchups
Dallas' Passing Attack vs. The Chicago Defense (Neutral Matchup)
Buffalo's Passing Attack vs. The Seattle Defense (Neutral Matchup)
Seattle's Passing Attack vs. The Buffalo Defense (Neutral Matchup)
Cleveland's Passing Attack vs. The Cincinnati Defense (Neutral Matchup)
Minnesota's Passing Attack vs. The Jacksonville Defense (Neutral Matchup)
Miami's Passing Attack vs. The San Francisco Defense (Neutral Matchup)
Carolina's Passing Attack vs. The Tampa Bay Defense (Neutral Matchup)
Pittsburgh's Passing Attack vs. The Washington Defense (Neutral Matchup)
New England's Passing Attack vs. The Baltimore Defense (Neutral Matchup)
Tough Matchups
Detroit's Passing Attack vs. The Indianapolis Defense (Tough Matchup)
Cincinnati's Passing Attack vs. The Cleveland Defense (Tough Matchup)
New Orleans' Passing Attack vs. The Atlanta Defense (Tough Matchup)
New York Jets' Passing Attack vs. The Arizona Defense (Tough Matchup)
Arizona's Passing Attack vs. The New York Jets' Defense (Tough Matchup)
Oakland's Passing Attack vs. The Denver Defense (Tough Matchup)
New York Giant's Passing Attack vs. The Philadelphia Defense (Tough Matchup)
Tampa Bay's Passing Attack vs. The Carolina Defense (Tough Matchup)
Houston's Passing Attack vs. The Tennessee Defense (Tough Matchup)
Baltimore's Passing Attack vs. The New England Defense (Tough Matchup)
Bad Matchups
San Francisco's Passing Attack vs. The Miami Defense (Bad Matchup)
Washington's Passing Attack vs. The Pittsburgh Defense (Bad Matchup)
Atlanta's Passing Attack vs. The New Orleans'
Defense (Great Matchup)
The Falcons have decided to let Michael Vick "Be Mike" and he's been
running wild with the ball in recent weeks (24/177/0 rushing in the past 2 games)
- that's nice for his fantasy owners, but not so great for teams with Atlanta's
receivers on the roster. Last week, Vick ran 15 times for 104 yards, while completing
a paltry 12/20 passes for 115 yards and 2 TDs. The scores kept the aerial unit
from dropping off of the fantasy map entirely (Alge Crumpler owners were happy,
with 5 targets (led the team) for 4/47/2), but the bottom line here is that
Atlanta just doesn't need to throw the ball very often. Dez White was second
on the team with 4/45/0 on 4 chances last week. 20/36 for 262 yards, 3 TDs and
1 interception is the grand total that Vick has piled up in the passing department
in his two most recent starts - he ranks 10th among all fantasy QBs in fantasy
points per game during those games, averaging 20.95 fantasy points per week.
The Saints' defense is a joke. They are last vs. the pass (allowing an average
of 269.9 passing yards per game, with 18 scores surrendered in 10 games) and
last vs. The rush (allowing 150.6 rushing yards per contest, with 12 scores
given away to date). Over the past 3 weeks, they've coughed up 771 yards in
the passing phase of the game, and 10 TDs (rushing and receiving). They are
the worst defense in the league by a wide margin at this juncture.
New Orleans did without CB Mike McKenzie (knee) and S Steve Gleason (hamstring)
last week. Atlanta's WR Brian Finneran has been struggling with a pectoral injury
lately and hasn't played for weeks.
This game is to be played in the Georgia Dome - weather won't be a factor.
Atlanta doesn't throw very often, but when they do bother to chuck the rock
it gets to the receivers on target more often than not. The Saints can't stop
anybody in this phase of the game. Advantage, Atlanta.
Denver's Passing Attack vs. The Oakland
Defense (Great Matchup)
Jake Plummer is on fire right now. He threw for 19/29 for 224 yards, 2 TDs
and 0 interceptions in the laugher over the Saints last week, and has amassed
35/53 for 458 yards, 6 TDs and 0 interceptions during his last 2 games. He's
divided up the ball between 4 main targets during his tear, with Ashley Lelie
leading the class (12 for 7/160/2); Dewayne Carswell is 2nd during that span
with 10 for 7/46/0; Jeb Putzier (8 for 6/84/1) and Rod Smith (8 for 6/55/1)
have both seen 8 balls. FB Kyle Johnson has also seen some action lately, with
5 targets for 4/65/1. The Broncos are firing on all cylinders in this phase
of the game. Last time around the block vs. Oakland, back in week 6, Plummer
enjoyed a solid 11/20 for 190 yards, 3 TDs and 1 interception outing - he's
looking good for this week's game, folks.
Oakland's defense has been consistently "in the holiday mood" all
season, giving away TD after TD like it is Christmas already. They have coughed
up 20 TDs in the passing phase of the game in 10 games, near the bottom of the
league in that category. They also rank in the bottom tier of pass defenses
in yards allowed per game (225.5, 24th in the NFL). They have given away an
average of 247 passing yards per game over the past 3 weeks (2 games), including
18/34 for 226 yards, 1 TD and 0 interceptions to Drew Brees last week. The Raiders
just aren't a good pass D this year.
Both teams come into the game in decent shape, with no serious new complaints.
The forecast for Mile High Stadium calls for a high of 32F and a low of 18F
with a 50% chance for rain/sleet/snow. At this time of year, that means the
field could be very slick during the game - if the precipitation comes down
as a heavy snowfall, visibility could also be an issue in this game.
Denver is on a roll - Oakland is going nowhere fast. Advantage, Broncos (but
remember that "Rocky Mountain High" weather).
San Diego's Passing Attack vs. The Kansas
City Defense (Great Matchup)
18/34 for 226 yards, 1 TD and 0 interceptions was the tally for Drew Brees
vs. Oakland on Sunday - it wasn't his greatest fantasy outing this season, but
he's still producing steady numbers, especially for Antonio Gates owners (8/101/1
last week, with 13/157/4 in his last 2 games). Brees is the 2nd highest fantasy
QB over the past 3 weeks, with an average of 25.55 fantasy points per game to
his credit (40/70 for 483 yards, 5 TDs and 0 interceptions) - he should be your
starter if he's on your roster.
Kansas City's pass defense just isn't stout this season, allowing an average
of 235.9 passing yards per game this year (27th in the NFL), with 17 passing
scores given up in 10 games. Tom Brady and company lit them up for 315 yards
and a score last week - the team averaged 264 passing yards allowed per game
in the 2 games prior to the Monday night game.
Both teams enjoy decent health at this point in the season, with no major new
injuries to report.
The forecast for Arrowhead stadium calls for a high of 50F with a low of 32F
and a 40% chance for precipitation. If the moisture falls thickly around game
time, the field could become slick and the ball may be harder than usual to
handle. Weather could be a factor in this matchup.
San Diego has one of the hottest attacks around, while the Chiefs are always
in a holiday mood (they are a giving bunch) - advantage, San Diego.
Kansas City's Passing Attack vs. The San
Diego Defense (Good Matchup)
Trent Green lit up the New England secondary on Monday Night Football to the
tune of 27/42 for 381 yards, 2 TDs and interception. One receiver went over
100 yards catching the ball (Johnnie Morton, with 5/107/0), and 2 more were
near that milestone (Kennison had 3/99/2; Gonzalez had 7/86/0). In Priest Holmes
absence, the passing assault is elevating their play to take up the slack. Start
your Chiefs if you've got them this week, because San Diego is coming to town.
San Diego gave up 18/31 for 227 yards, 2 TDs and 0 interceptions to the Raiders
last week - that wasn't really a surprise, as the team averages 237.9 passing
yards allowed per game this season (28th in the NFL) and they have given away
13 passing scores to date - this squad is subpar to mediocre, depending on the
week in question. Over the past 3 weeks, they team has allowed an average of
193 net passing yards per game, with 4 TDs allowed in 2 games (rushing and receiving).
They aren't awful, but they aren't stellar, either.
K.C. enjoys decent health, although TE Kris Wilson has yet to play a down this
season (leg/ankle injury). San Diego's secondary is in good shape, with no major
new injuries to report.
The forecast for Arrowhead stadium calls for a high of 50F with a low of 32F
and a 40% chance for precipitation. If the moisture falls thickly around game
time, the field could become slick and the ball may be harder than usual to
handle. Weather could be a factor in this matchup.
The Chiefs' unit has the upper hand in this matchup.
Philadelphia's Passing Attack vs. The New
York Giants' Defense (Good Matchup)
Donovan McNabb has been brilliant since the sideline"discussion"
with Owens during the loss to Pittsburgh. He tossed 18/26 for 222 yards, 4 TDs
and 1 interception vs. Washington's top-tier secondary last week, and has 48/78
for 676 yards, 8 TDs and 2 interceptions to his credit in the last 3 games (22.9
fantasy points per game, 9th among fantasy QBs in fantasy points per game during
that span). Todd Pinkston and Brian Westbrook have entered the picture over
the last 3 weeks (12 targets for 1/175/1 and 15 for 12/108/2) to complement
Terrell Owens' leading role (27 for 15/211/4) - it's all good in this phase
of the game for the Eagles.
New York's secondary has been tough in recent weeks, allowing only 280 net
passing yards in their last 3 games (93 yards per game), including last week's
12/20 for 115 yards, 2 TDs and 0 interception performance by the scramble-happy
Michael Vick. The Giants rank 4th in the NFL this season allowing only 174.1
passing yards per game on average, but they have allowed a lot of TDs (15 over
10 games so far). McNabb nailed them for 26/36 for 330 yards, 4 TDs and 0 interceptions
way back in week 1 - the Giants had trouble with Owens in particular that day
(8/68/3).
S Jack Brewer (lower leg) and S Gibril Wilson (neck) missed last week's game,
while S Brent Alexander was banged up during the game (unspecified injury late
in the game). The Eagles enjoy good health on their side of the ball right now.
The forecast for Giants' Stadium calls for a high of 55F with a low of 46F
and a 20% chance for rain - a fine autumnal day is around the corner, it appears.
Look for the Eagles to romp all over their division rivals this week.
Chicago's Passing Attack vs. The Dallas
Defense (Good Matchup)
Craig Krenzel played better on Sunday than he did two weeks ago (14/24 for
175 yards, 1 TD and 2 interceptions this week vs. 10/28 for 116 yards, 0 TDs
and 2 interceptions 2 weeks ago). However, as you can see, "better"
is a relative term. David Terrell led the team with 5 targets for 3/76/0 - TE
Dustin Lyman snagged the TD in his single chance (1/2/1). There isn't much going
on in fantasy terms among Chicago's receiving corps.
How bad is the Dallas secondary? Well, Kyle Boller, who has thrown for a total
of 155/263 for 1546 yards, 7 TDs and 6 interceptions this season, put up 15%
of his season's yardage total and 29% of his TDs against Dallas last week (23/34
for 232 yards, 2 TDs and 0 interceptions). They are 26th in the NFL this season,
allowing an average of 229.9 passing yards per game, and the Cowboys have given
up the 2nd-most passing TDs to date (22). Over the past 3 weeks the team has
allowed an average of 259 passing yards per contest, with 11 TDs given up in
that span (rushing and receiving). They are definitely not a quality group.
Dallas' squad doesn't have injuries as an excuse - they are in relatively good
shape at this point, with no new injuries of note. Chicago's current squad is
also in decent shape - injuries aren't a huge factor in this matchup.
The forecast for Texas Stadium calls for a high of 57F and 43F with a 0% chance
for precipitation - that sounds like great weather for a football game.
Dallas' secondary is a pushover - if they can make Kyle Boller look good, then
Krenzel and company have a good chance at a decent game, too.
Indianapolis' Passing Attack vs. The Detroit
Defense (Good Matchup)
Indianapolis' Peyton Manning over the last 3 weeks: 58/84 for 799 yards, 13
TDs and 3 interceptions over the past 2 ¾ games (the Colts didn't need
him to play in the final quarter vs. The Bears). He's on pace to destroy Dan
Marino's single-season TD record, and is also in striking distance of the yardage
record. Start your Colts.
Detroit's defense played very well in the first half vs. The Vikings, but then
folded in the second 30 minutes (they blew a 19-7 lead in the 4th quarter, including
a TD pass and a 2-pt conversion pass to Nate Burleson from Culpepper). Culpepper
piled up 22/32 for 233 yards, 2 TDs and 1 interception during the game. Over
the past 3 weeks, the Lions have limited teams to 154 passing yards per game
on average - much better than their season average of 223.4 passing yards per
game (16 passing scores surrendered this season to date).
Detroit's secondary is in decent shape at this point in the season, with no
significant injury issues. The Colts continue to do without WR Troy Walters,
thanks to his fractured arm.
This game is to be played in Ford Field, so weather won't be an issue.
Indianapolis is automatic at this stage of the season. Minnesota's attack confounded
the Lions last week - we think the Colts should enjoy a solid outing vs. Detroit.
Jacksonville's Passing Attack vs. The Minnesota
Defense (Good Matchup)
"There's nothing definite in life except death and taxes, but it's a pretty
good bet I'll be back out there." - Byron Leftwich on his prospects to
start vs. Minnesota. Leftwich was playing very well in the last few games before
his injury. He had 825 yards, 4 TDs and 3 interceptions to his credit in his
most recent 3 games. At that point, Jimmy Smith was tearing up the field with
28 targets for 21/321/1 during Leftwich's most recent 3 games. He has been Garrard's
main target, too, with 21 for 9/138/1 during the last 3 weeks - whoever starts,
Smith owners should plug him into their lineup. David Garrard has been steadily
productive in his chances, with 32/63 for 327 yards, 2 TDs and 1 interception,
with 12/76/1 rushing over the past 2 games.
Minnesota's defense has not been stellar over the past 3 weeks, allowing 9
TDs total, with an average of 189 net passing yards surrendered per game during
that span. They are the league's 25th ranked pass D this season, coughing up
yardage at the rate of 227.1 per game (16 passing scores given away in 10 games).
They were tough on the limping Lions last week, though - Joey Harrington scraped
up a mere 12/19 for 91 yards, 1 TD and 1 interception vs. The Vikings last week.
Jacksonville's TE George Wrighster has missed several games in a row due to
his bad back. Minnesota's secondary has no major injury issues hampering them
at the moment.
This game will be played in the Metrodome, so weather won't be an issue.
Jacksonville's attack has been steady-if-not-spectacular with Garrard under
center, while Leftwich was just starting to get a head of steam up when he was
cut down with a knee injury. Minnesota's secondary is subpar most weeks - advantage,
Jaguars.
Tennessee's Passing Attack vs. The Houston
Defense (Good Matchup)
Steve McNair got back in the saddle last week, and led the Titans to a tight
victory over the Jaguars. That's something he couldn't do vs. The Texans back
in week 6, when he suffered through a 19/41 for 210 yards, 1 TD and 4 interception
performance. He comes into this game off 18/30 for 209 yards, 1 TD and 2 interceptions
worth of work last week - Drew Bennett was a big part of the 12 incompletions
(he just couldn't seem to get a handle on the ball, and ended up with 11 targets
but just 4/64/0 in production). Derrick Mason hauled in the TD (5 for 3/56/1).
McNair and company were just barely adequate to their task last week.
Houston was picked apart by Brett Favre and lost the game due to his last-minute
heroics (33/50 for 383 yards, 1 TD and 2 interceptions). They haven't been a
top unit this season, allowing a league-high 24 passing TDs to date, with an
average of 255.6 passing yards allowed per game (30th in the NFL). Over the
past 3 weeks, the Texans have hemorrhaged an average of 259 passing yards per
game, and have given up 10 TDs (rushing and receiving) - they are not tough.
Tennessee's receiving corps is holding up despite a lot of dings (McNair's
chest is still sore, too), with no new injuries of note. Houston S Jason Simmons
has missed several games due to his head injury.
The forecast for Reliant Stadium calls for a high of 76F with a low of 49F
and a 30% chance for precipitation. If the rain holds off, it should be a great
day to play some football.
McNair had a bad game vs. The Texans back in week 6, but he should be able
to bounce back against their weak secondary this time around.
St. Louis' Passing Attack vs. The Green
Bay Defense (Good Matchup)
Inconsistent. That one word describes the variable intensity level of the Rams
from week to week. They looked great demolishing division-rival Seattle two
weeks ago, but suffered from a power-outage (and numerous miscues by QB Marc
Bulger) vs. The sub-.500 Buffalo Bills last week. Bulger tossed 27/45 for 287
yards, 2 TDs but also threw 3 interceptions. The ground game was awful (20/35/0)
which put all the weight on Bulger's shoulders - obviously, he wasn't up to
the task last week. Torry Holt led the team with 8/90/1, and sidekick Isaac
Bruce snagged the other score (3/58/1) - from the fantasy perspective it was
a solid outing for the receivers.
Green Bay limited the Texans to 13/27 for 164 yards, 1 TD and 0 interceptions
last Sunday, but they have averaged 245 passing yards allowed per game over
their last 2 contests (363 passing yards to Culpepper two weeks ago) - they've
been up and down in this phase of the game recently. The team has allowed 21
passing scores this season (third-most in the NFL at this point), and average
223.8 passing yards allowed per contest. The Packers' secondary is not among
the league's top units, folks.
DB Michael Hawthorne was knocked out of the game on Sunday due to a strong
blow to his jaw. St. Louis Torry Holt suffered a knee contusion in the game
last week, and a concussion two weeks ago - he's been banged up recently.
Weather should be a factor in this game, as the game is on Monday Night Football,
starting 9 PM ET - at Lambeau Field in Wisconsin. The forecast calls for a high
of 43F with a low of 22F (it will be close to that at kickoff), with a 30% chance
for snow. Not exactly what the dome-dwelling Rams are used to, is it? The football
gets very hard and slick in subfreezing temperatures and fingers can become
stiff and numb.
St. Louis has a powerful passing attack, while the Packers are subpar at defending
the pass. Advantage, St. Louis.
Green Bay's Passing Attack vs. The St. Louis
Defense (Good Matchup)
Brett Favre reached into his reserves last week, and managed to overcome two
interceptions to lead the Packers to a 16-13 victory with 33/50 for 383 yards,
and 1 TD (many of the yards and the TD were piled up in the 4th quarter). Donald
Driver was the big man on campus Sunday night, with 12 targets for 10/148/1,
while Javon Walker saw more balls (15) but produced less than usual with 9/88/0.
Favre continues to be an elite NFL QB who can blow up for lots of fantasy points
on any given Sunday.
St. Louis' pass D was embarrassed by Drew Bledsoe last week (15/24 for 185
yards, 3 TDs and 1 interception) as little-known TE Mark Campbell burned the
Rams 3 times for TDs. The Rams are subpar in this department, allowing an average
of 218.4 passing yards per game (20th in the NFL) and they have surrendered
16 passing scores in 10 games. The squad averages 190 net passing yards allowed
per game over the past 3 weeks - with 7 scores allowed (rushing and receiving).
Robert Ferguson is having some trouble with his injured shoulder, and TE David
Martin missed the game last week due to his injured knee. St. Louis lost 3 DBs
to injury last week (Travis Fisher and DeJuan Groce both injured their knees
(Groce's injury looked more serious) and Kevin Garrett suffered a concussion.
S Antuan Edwards was sidelined by a groin injury and didn't play at all. Injuries
are taking a toll on the Rams' secondary.
Weather should be a factor in this game, as the game is on Monday Night Football,
starting 9 PM ET - at Lambeau Field in Wisconsin. The forecast calls for a high
of 43F with a low of 22F (it will be close to that at kickoff), with a 30% chance
for snow. Not exactly what the dome-dwelling Rams are used to, is it? The football
gets very hard and slick in subfreezing temperatures and fingers can become
stiff and numb.
Green Bay deploys a lot of solid weapons in this phase of the game, and Brett
Favre enjoys excellent pass-blocking (only 5 sacks allowed to date, least in
the NFL this season) - St. Louis is banged up in this phase of the game and
hasn't played the pass particularly well much of the season. Advantage, Green
Bay.
Minnesota's Passing Attack vs. The Jacksonville
Defense (Neutral Matchup)
Randy Moss is expected to return to the Minnesota lineup this week, according
to initial reports - however, how productive he'll be after missing 5 weeks
due to a partially torn hamstring remains to be seen. His 26/394/8 receiving
to date makes Moss an awfully tempting start for his long-suffering owners,
though - just be aware you are not guaranteed an immediate return to those levels
of production simply because Moss has strapped on his pads again. Daunte Culpepper
has been very productive without Moss - 65/95 for 765 yards, 7 TDs and 1 interception
over the past 3 weeks (4th best fantasy QB in the league) - but he would obviously
have even more potential for points if Moss is truly back to form. Nate Burleson
(24 targets for 17/201/3) and Jermane Wiggins (24 targets for 19/208/2) have
been the most prolific receivers over the past 3 weeks, in Moss' absence.
Jacksonville contained Steve McNair last week (18/30 for 209 yards, 1 TD and
2 interceptions, with 2/4/0 rushing), but failed to close out the victory (lost
18-15). They have allowed an average of 100 net passing yards and only 2 TDs
(rushing and receiving) over the past 2 games - the Jaguar's defense is playing
much better than their season average of 216.6 passing yards allowed per game
(18th in the NFL this year) and 12 passing scores allowed to date would indicate.
Aside from Moss, the Viking's unit is in good shape. Keep an eye on the official
injury reports as the weekend approaches to evaluate Moss' status for Sunday.
Jacksonville's secondary is in relatively good shape with no new injuries of
note as of early this week.
This game will be played in the Metrodome, so weather won't be an issue.
The Vikings field a multifaceted attack that excels no matter who Culpepper
is targeting. Jacksonville has been tough in recent weeks, but the Titans aren't
on the same level as the Vikings. With home-field advantage in the offense's
corner, we think this is a neutral matchup between top-performing squads poised
for playoff runs.
Miami's Passing Attack vs. The San Francisco
Defense (Neutral Matchup)
There are a lot of terms for a matchup like this one (between two 1-9 teams):
"Battle of the Bad"; "Toilet Bowl"; "Stink-Fest".
Take your pick - this game is more likely to be a comedy of errors than a "Battle
Royale".
Who will be the starting QB for the Dolphins is an open question as of Tuesday
- A.J. Feeley was visibly in agony at times due to thigh/gluteal injuries on
Sunday, and Jay Fiedler only managed to play a handful of downs before incurring
another stinger (the same injury that he suffered prior to being benched during
the bye week). Fiedler is gone for the year now after being placed on Injured
Reserve. In any case, the Dolphins' passing attack has been anemic at best this
season, and awful at worst. TE Randy McMichael has gone into a tailspin in recent
weeks, with only 7/59/0 to his credit in the last 2 games - the big beneficiary
of Feeley's ascension to the top spot at QB was Chris Chambers, who hauled in
9/103/1 out of 14 chances last week, to lead the Dolphins.
San Francisco scares no one in this phase of the game, allowing 19 passing
scores to date while averaging 216.7 yards allowed per game (19th in the NFL).
Over the past 3 weeks, they've coughed up an average of 254 passing yards per
contest, with 13 TDs (rushing and receiving) allowed during that span - that's
the most TDs given up in the league during the last 3 games. Tampa's Brian Griese
crammed in 15/21 for 210 yards, 2 TDs and 2 interceptions vs. The 49ers last
week.
San Francisco's secondary has been decimated by injuries this year, with several
quality guys on IR or missing long sections of the season - most recently, CBs
Ahmed Plummer (neck) and Jimmy Williams (toe) were inactive last week due to
injury. Miami's injury woes at QB are detailed above.
The forecast for Monster Stadium calls for a high of 59F with a low of 45F
and a 10% chance of precipitation - pleasant weather is around the corner for
this matchup, it appears.
The Dolphins are battered, while the 49ers' defense closely resembles Swiss
cheese - this one is an ugly but even matchup, with neither team clearly in
the drivers' seat before the showdown.
Dallas' Passing Attack vs. The Chicago Defense
(Neutral Matchup)
Vinny Testaverde may have played his way out of the lineup last week vs. Baltimore,
completing only 9/22 passes for 109 yards, 0 TDs and 2 interceptions before
a shoulder injury led to the NFL debut of Drew Henson (6/6 for 47 yards, 1 TD
and 0 interceptions with a lost fumble). During the course of the game, Keyshawn
Johnson (9 targets for 3/40/0) and Quincy Morgan (10 targets for 4/42/0) got
the most chances to make plays, while little-used TE Jeff Robinson snuck into
the endzone for a TD (1 target for 1/1/1). Last week's fantasy hero Jason Witten
(3 for 3/29/0) grabbed every ball that came his way, but failed to make much
of an impact for his fantasy owners this week.
Chicago's defense had been playing fairly well in this phase of the game, until
they ran into the Indianapolis juggernaut on Sunday. 17/28 for 211 yards, 4
TDs and 1 interception later (Peyton Manning's numbers last week), the Bears
were on the wrong side of a 41-10 defeat. This season the Bears are in the middle
of the NFL pack, allowing an average of 204.9 passing yards per game (14 passing
scores total to date). Over the past 3 weeks they've allowed an average of 232
passing yards per contest.
Testaverde's shoulder injury is still troubling him and right now, coach Bill
Parcells says there's "a good chance" that Henson will start. Chicago
hopes that CB Charles Tillman can finally return to the lineup this week, after
recovering from his knee injury. S Bobby Gray has missed many games due to a
nagging groin injury.
The forecast for Texas Stadium calls for a high of 57F and 43F with a 0% chance
for precipitation - that sounds like great weather for a football game.
Dallas' attack is in flux right now, and may be starting a rookie QB this week.
Chicago's squad is not a topflight unit, and they had a rough game last week.
This looks like a neutral matchup between struggling units to us.
Buffalo's Passing Attack vs. The Seattle
Defense (Neutral Matchup)
Buffalo's aerial assault carpet-bombed the Rams last week - Drew Bledsoe looked
like a spry youngster (well, almost) while tossing 15/24 for 185 yards, 3 TDs
and 1 interception. TE Mark Campbell caught 4 balls in 4 chances for 27 yards
and all 3 scores - he has snagged 14/172/5 this season: last week was easily
Campbell's biggest fantasy outing of the season. It was also Bledsoe's best
game in a month of Sundays. Eric Moulds blew 7 of his 10 chances and ended up
with a mere 3/17/0 for the game.
Seattle managed to escape the "juggernaut" Dolphins last week, thanks
to their rookie DB Michael Boulware (he scooped up an A.J. Feeley pass for a
63 yard interception return for a TD in the waning moments of last week's contest
to snuff a late Dolphin drive). Feeley hit 23/45 for 229 yards, 1 TD and 2 interceptions
against the Seahawks last week (the Seahawks allow an average of 221.3 passing
yards per game this season, and have surrendered 12 passing scores to date).
Over the last 3 weeks, Seattle averages 241 passing yards allowed per game (with
7 TDs (rushing and receiving) allowed during that span). They haven't been shutting
people down in this phase of the game in recent weeks, to say the least.
Buffalo continues to do without WR Josh Reed (knee injury) - he hasn't played
for many weeks. Seattle's secondary enjoys good health right now, with no major
injury complaints among the DBs.
The forecast for Qwest Field calls for a high of 46F and a low of 36F with
a 10% chance for rain. A nice day for a football game is around the corner in
the Pacific Northwest, apparently.
Buffalo found a way to win vs. St. Louis, thanks to their hot TE Mark Campbell.
Seattle plays mediocre-to-poor pass defense, depending on the week - this looks
like an even matchup from where we sit.
Seattle's Passing Attack vs. The Buffalo
Defense (Neutral Matchup)
Matt Hasselbeck's injured thigh failed to improve over the course of last week,
and he ended up being the Seahawks emergency QB last Sunday. Keep a close eye
on the injury reports that the league releases later in the week to determine
Hasselbeck's chances of playing this Sunday. He's not making the progress the
team would like to see. If he can't manage to get healthy, Trent Dilfer is a
capable-if-unspectacular stand-in (14/28 for 196 yards, 1 TD and 2 interceptions).
As expected, Koren "Hands of Stone" Robinson has finally been suspended
by the league for 4 games thanks to his 3rd marijuana-related violation of the
league's drug policy. Jerry Rice moves into Robinson's starting slot (and he
caught the TD from Dilfer on Sunday (6 targets for 3/86/1)), while Darrell Jackson
continues to drop too many throws on the other side of the lineup (9 targets
for 3/39/0).
Buffalo's pass D has been tough most of the time this season, ranking 6th in
the NFL allowing an average of 183.3 passing yards per game (with 13 passing
scores given up to date). However, over the past 3 weeks the Bills have surrendered
an average of 216 passing yards per game, and they coughed up 27/45 for 287
yards, 2 TDs and 3 interceptions to Marc Bulger last week - they've been trending
downwards in recent weeks.
CB Troy Vincent has missed many games in a row for the Bills (knee, out last
week on Friday's injury report - and inactive on Sunday). Seattle's corps enjoys
decent health among their pass-catchers.
The forecast for Qwest Field calls for a high of 46F and a low of 36F with
a 10% chance for rain. A nice day for a football game is around the corner in
the Pacific Northwest, apparently.
Seattle's attack goes up and down from week to week, while the Bills' D has
been sliding in recent weeks in this phase of the game. The loss of Robinson
may be a case of addition by subtraction, as Rice is much more sure-handed than
Koren "Ricky Williams" Robinson - this looks like a neutral matchup
for the home-team Seahawks.
Cleveland's Passing Attack vs. The Cincinnati
Defense (Neutral Matchup)
The big question facing the Browns early in this week: can Jeff Garcia play
in this game on Sunday? He was knocked out of the game on Sunday with a shoulder
strain (he threw for 10/17 for 88 yards, 1 TD and 0 interceptions before being
injured). Backup Kelly Holcomb was ineffective in relief of Garcia (4/10 for
32 yards, 0 TDs and 0 interceptions) - the Browns are crossing their fingers
that Garcia can rally from this injury (he really tore up the Bengals back in
week 6: 16/23 for 310 yards, 4 TDs and 2 interceptions). Needless to say, nobody
on the squad managed much in the way of fantasy points given the lack of production
from the QBs (Dennis Northcutt led the team with 2/40/0 receiving; TE Aaron
Shea snagged the TD 2/7/1).
Cincinnati was tough on Ben Roethlisberger last week, sacking him 7 times while
limiting him to 15/21 for 138 yards, 1 TD and 0 interceptions. They have now
cracked the top ten in the NFL in QB sacks, with 25 to their credit to date
- over the past 3 weeks, they've averaged 156 net passing yards allowed per
game (with only 2 TDs allowed in 3 games). The Bengals currently rank 9th in
the NFL allowing an average of 188.1 passing yards per game this season (with
14 passing scores surrendered to date). The pass D has been improving steadily
as the weeks go by.
The Bengals have been playing well despite serious losses due to injury: CBs
Rashad Bauman has missed multiple games thanks to his injured Achilles' tendon,
and Deltha O'Neal was out last week due to an elbow injury. WRs Andre King (ankle)
and Andre Davis (toe) have been out of circulation for many weeks on the Cleveland
side of the ledger - both teams have injury issues coming into this matchup.
The forecast for Paul Brown Stadium calls for a high of 56F and a low of 43F
with a 20% chance for precipitation. A fine autumn day is around the corner,
it appears.
The Brown's attack has been sputtering recently, and could be starting Kelly
Holcomb at QB this week. Cincinnati has improved since the Browns victimized
them back in week 6 - this looks like a fairly even matchup to us. If Garcia
can't play, then consider it a tough matchup for Holcomb and company.
Carolina's Passing Attack vs. The Tampa
Bay Defense (Neutral Matchup)
Carolina's Jake Delhomme continues to cement his relationship with Muhsin Muhammad
(37 targets for 20/335/5 over the past 3 weeks) while Keary Colbert (21 for
10/117/0) sees some chances in the redzone (but Delhomme's throws to Colbert
have been off-target in those situations lately) and Ricky Proehl continues
to be a specialist at finding soft-spots in the defense (19 for 11/160/0). The
Panthers have won 2 straight and are actually on a mini-roll coming into this
game. Regarding his fractured thumb-tip, Delhomme reports "Don't get me
wrong - it doesn't feel good, but it's good enough". Delhomme was "good
enough" for 12/25 for 157 yards, 2 TDs and 1 interception last week, before
sitting out the final minutes in the blowout victory over Arizona.
San Francisco couldn't get anything going against the Buccaneers last week,
with 15/31 for 147 yards, 0 TDs and 1 interception to Rattay's credit at the
end of the day. The Buccaneer secondary has been consistently tough all season,
and currently ranks 2nd in the NFL allowing an average of 163.9 passing yards
per game and a total of 11 passing scores to date. Over the past 3 weeks, they've
been giving up closer to 200 passing yards per game on average (599 net passing
yards in 3 games).
Aside from Delhomme's thumb, the Panthers come into this game in good shape.
Tampa's secondary has been down S Jermaine Phillips (arm injury) recently.
The forecast for Bank of America Stadium calls for a high of 62F with a low
of 54F and a 20% chance of rain. It sounds like the sky should be "Carolina
Blue" during a fine Piedmont afternoon on Sunday.
The Panthers have been playing well in this phase, while the Buccaneers are
a top unit in their own right - we see this game as pretty even before the coin-flip.
Pittsburgh's Passing Attack vs. The Washington
Defense (Neutral Matchup)
Ben Roethlisberger hit a rough patch in his development as a NFL starter, with
two meager outings in a row (10/16 for 134 yards, 0 TDs and 1 interception vs.
Cleveland two weeks ago, 15/21 for 138 yards, 1 TD and 0 interceptions last
week) from the fantasy perspective. However, Pittsburgh is a run-first team
predicated on a tough defense, so don't expect him to do much more than he did
vs. Dallas in week 6 (21/25 (his highest number of completions this season)
for 193 yards, 2 TDs and 0 interceptions) even during his best outings this
year. Over the past 3 games, Plaxico Burress (16 targets for 11/182/0) and Hines
Ward (11 for 8/89/1) continue to be options A and B week in and week out - no-one
else has seen more than 6 passes (FB Dan Kreider, 5/34/1).
Washington's vaunted pass D (7th in the NFL this season, allowing an average
of 184.1 passing yards per game, with 11 scores surrendered to date) was shellacked
by Donovan McNabb last week: 18/26 for 222 yards, 4 TDs and 1 interception was
the tally when the dust settled. They have been slipping in the last few weeks,
allowing an average of 228 passing yards per game over the past 3 outings -
McNabb and company were right on that pace last week.
The Steelers come into this game in good health, while the Redskins' secondary
is in decent shape (Fred Smoot continues to have trouble with a lingering shoulder
injury, but he continues to play through the pain each week).
The forecast for Heinz Field calls for a high of 53F with a low of 44F and
a 30% chance for precipitation. If the rain holds off, it should be a nice day
to play a game of football.
Pittsburgh has an efficient but not high-flying passing game, while the Redskins'
pass D has slipped from elite to merely competent in the past few weeks - this
matchup looks pretty even to us.
New England's Passing Attack vs. The Baltimore
Defense (Neutral Matchup)
Tom Brady was on fire Monday night, with 17/26 for 315 yards, 1 TD and 0 interceptions
to his credit. Deion Branch immediately made an impact on his return to the
lineup, with 6/105/1 (TE Daniel Graham returned from the shadows to notch 3/83/0)
- 6 other players chipped in with 1 or 2 receptions each. As usual, the Patriots
used a total team effort to win their game. Brady has 782 passing yards and
5 TDs with 1 interception to his credit over the past 3 games - not too shabby,
huh?
Baltimore frustrated, abused, and knocked Vinny Testaverde out of the game
last week (9/22 for 109 yards, 0 TDs and 2 interceptions) before giving Dallas
fans hope for the future by surrendering 6/6 for 47 yards and 1 TD to rookie
Drew Henson during "garbage time". The Ravens have been abusing QBs
all season, with an average of only 173.4 passing yards allowed per game (3rd
in the NFL) and only 7 passing scores given away in 10 games (second-best in
the NFL). They are very tough on their opponents, no doubt about that. The team
has averaged 134 net passing yards allowed per game to their opponents over
the past 3 weeks.
With the return of Branch, the Patriots' receiving corps is back to full strength.
Baltimore did without CBs Chris McAlister (neck) and Deion Sanders (foot) last
week.
The forecast for Gillette Stadium calls for a high of 52F with a low of 35F
and a 20% chance for rain - a crisp autumn day is on tap for this game, it appears.
New England has one of the best passing attacks in the league, while the Ravens
field one of the top pass defenses - this is a neutral matchup.
Cincinnati's Passing Attack vs. The Cleveland
Defense (Tough Matchup)
Carson Palmer has been performing below fantasy-starter levels over the past
3 weeks, with 58/96 for 594 yards, 4 TDs and 3 interceptions - that ranks 18th
among all signal callers during that span (16.2 fantasy points per game on average).
He didn't have much luck against the Browns back in week 6 either (20/36 for
148 yards, 1 TD and 1 interception) - recent history doesn't bode well for the
Bengals' prospects this weekend. Chad Johnson's production over the last 3 weeks
lands him among the top 20 among fantasy WRs (19/243/1, to rank 19th in the
league during that span, averaging 10.1 fantasy points per game).
The Browns contained the Jets' attack last week, limiting Quincy Carter to
11/20 for 116 yards, 1 TD and 1 Interception (it was not until late in the game
that Carter managed to string together a series of completions resembling a
drive). Over the past 3 weeks, the Browns have allowed a mere 111 net passing
yards per game on average (with 4 TDs rushing and receiving surrendered during
those 3 weeks). This is one of the toughest pass defenses around (they sacked
Quincy Carter 6 times last week, for almost 1/3 of their season's total of 20
sacks) right now.
CB Daylon McCutcheon injured his toe in the Browns' last game, but continued
to play. The Bengals have no new injuries of note coming into this game.
The forecast for Paul Brown Stadium calls for a high of 56F and a low of 43F
with a 20% chance for precipitation. A fine autumn day is around the corner,
it appears.
The Browns are playing very well in this phase of the game right now, and frustrated
Palmer the last time around the block. Advantage, Cleveland.
Detroit's Passing Attack vs. The Indianapolis
Defense (Tough Matchup)
Joey Harrington completed a high percentage of his attempts vs. Minnesota (12/19)
but only managed to convert those 12 connections to 91 yards, 1 TD and 1 interception.
It was not a scintillating fantasy performance, to say the least. TE Stephen
Alexander led the team with 5 targets for 4/27/1 - everybody else had 21 yards
receiving or less during the game. Harrington's total production over the last
3 weeks - 49/104 for 489 yards, 2 TDs and 3 interceptions - ranks 31st among
all fantasy QBs during that span and does not inspire much confidence in his
(or his receivers') prospects this week.
Indianapolis' secondary easily contained the Bears last week (14/24 for 175
yards, 1 TD and 2 interceptions), despite an enormous lead that forced the Bears
to chase the Colts throughout the game. The TD was allowed in "garbage
time" after the Colts had built a 41-3 lead. Over the past 3 games, the
Colts' secondary has allowed an average of 156.3 passing yards per contest (5
TDs rushing and receiving allowed during that span). Suddenly, the Colts' D
isn't a total joke, despite their season average of 261 passing yards allowed
per game (16 passing scores allowed to date this year).
CB Nick Harper missed last week's game due to his shoulder injury, and crucial
S Bob Sanders suffered a MCL strain in last weeks game - the Colts' DBs are
banged up coming into this contest. Az-Zahir Hakim hasn't been able to play
much in recent weeks due to his hip injury, and missed last week's game entirely.
Both teams have injury issues this week, and the short interval between Sunday
and Thursday won't help matters.
This game is to be played in Ford Field, so weather won't be an issue.
The Lions have been trending downward in recent weeks, while the Colts' defense
is improving steadily. Advantage, Indianapolis.
New Orleans' Passing Attack vs. The Atlanta
Defense (Tough Matchup)
Aaron Brooks threw the ball 60 times last week, and completed 34 passes for
377 yards, 1 TD and 3 interceptions. His team was still blown out 34-13, and
after the game team owner said the Saints played like a bunch of high schoolers
It's fair to say that all is not well with the Saints at this point in the season.
Donte Stallworth led all WRs with 14 targets for 10/122/1 (RB Deuce McAllister
was thrown to 15 times for 11/92/0), while Joe Horn saw 10 balls for 5/81/0.
Brooks has thrown 65/116 for 809 yards over the past 3 weeks, but has tossed
only 3 TDs vs. 5 interceptions in that span. He continues to be wildly erratic
in his performance, looking very solid at times, but then following up a series
of good plays with costly mistakes.
Atlanta spoiled Eli Manning's coming out party last week, allowing only 17/37
for 162 yards, 1 TD and 2 interceptions in the rookie's debut. Over their past
2 games, the Falcons have given up an average of only 142 net passing yards
per contest, and rank 5th in the NFL this season with 28 sacks to their credit.
They are playing significantly better in this phase of the game than they did
earlier this season - their season average of 238.8 passing yards allowed per
game (29th in the NFL) is hardly something to crow about.
Joe Horn hyper-extended his right elbow in the game last week - check on his
status later in the week if you are a Horn owner. The Falcon's DBs were banged
up last week - CB Kevin Mathis strained his left shoulder, and SS Cory Hall
bruised his chest - neither injury was considered serious.
This game is to be played in the Georgia Dome - weather won't be a factor.
The Falcons are playing solid defense as the second half of the season unwinds,
while the Saints are careless with the ball and not particularly sharp in recent
weeks. Advantage, Atlanta.
New York Jets' Passing Attack vs. The Arizona
Defense (Tough Matchup)
Quincy Carter was unimpressive for 3+ quarters of play last week, but managed
to string together some late series to help the Jets pull out the game - in
fantasy terms, though, his 11/20 for 116 yards, 1 TD and 1 interception had
owners of the Jets' receivers wishing for Chad Pennington's swift recovery.
Justin McCareins was the only player worth starting among the group, with 6/71/1
on 7 targets - Santana Moss went back to sleep with 2/25/0 to his credit last
week. Ho-hum.
Arizona have been playing solid pass defense in the past few weeks, despite
the turnover fueled drubbing at the hands of the Panthers last week (the defense
can't stop the offense from turning the ball over). 13/27 for 160 yards, 2 TDs
and 1 interception was the total that Jake Delhomme managed last week against
this group. They have averaged 185 net passing yards allowed per game over the
last 3 weeks, but the team has surrendered 9 TDs (rushing and receiving). This
season, the Cardinals average 201.4 passing yards allowed per game, with 12
TDs given up in this phase to date.
Chad Pennington began some light throwing in practice to begin the week, but
he doesn't look ready to resume the helm of the team just yet (rotator cuff
injury). The Cardinal's secondary is in good health for this time of year, with
no new injuries of note.
The forecast for Sun Devil Stadium calls for a high of 63F and a low of 39F
with a 30% chance for rain. If the rain comes down hard around game time, the
field could get slick and footing would be more treacherous. The field sees
a lot of wear and tear between college and pro games during the course of the
football season.
Quincy Carter is, well, Quincy Carter - he's not the greatest QB in the league.
The Cardinals are fairly hard-nosed in this department - this is a tough matchup
for the Jets' current starter under center.
Arizona's Passing Attack vs. The New York
Jets' Defense (Tough Matchup)
Coach Green wanted more "production" out of the QB position, so he
inserted Shaun King in a surprise maneuver last week. He got more "production"
all right - more interceptions (3) and a loss - all McCown had done was win
3 of his last 4 starts before being benched. Anyway, King's ascension to the
top job did lead to 28/52 for 343 yards and a score in addition to the 3 picks
-Anquan Boldin (16 targets for 6/75/0) and Larry Fitzgerald (14 for 7/92/1)
garnered over 50% of Kings' 52 throws between the 2 players, and they look to
be the main beneficiaries of the new regime.
The Jets' pass D ranks in the top ten this season, allowing an average of only
197.2 passing yards per contest (with 13 TDs allowed in this phase of the game
to date). Last week, they held the Browns to 14/27 for 120 yards, 1 TD and 0
interceptions - the squad averages 162 passing yards allowed per game over the
past 3 games. This group of defenders is stiffening their resistance heading
into the playoff stretch run.
McCown has been struggling to overcome a sore neck due to being slammed into
the turf a few weeks ago. WR Nate Poole's groin injury forced him to the sidelines
last week. The Jets did without S Rashad Washington (foot injury) last week,
as usual, and S Jon McGraw (groin) was also inactive. Injuries are a negative
for both units at this point in the season.
The forecast for Sun Devil Stadium calls for a high of 63F and a low of 39F
with a 30% chance for rain. If the rain comes down hard around game time, the
field could get slick and footing would be more treacherous. The field sees
a lot of wear and tear between college and pro games during the course of the
football season.
Shaun King has a great arm, but his decision-making has always been open to
question. Meanwhile, the Jets are kicking it up in the race for the playoffs,
and they are playing tough pass D in recent weeks. Advantage, Jets.
Oakland's Passing Attack vs. The Denver
Defense (Tough Matchup)
Kerry Collins found his stroke last week, with an 18/30 for 227 yards, 2 TD
and 0 interception performance against the streaking Chargers. It wasn't enough
to win the game, but Collins finally started to look like the big-armed mad
bomber we all expected to see when he went to join the Raiders. Jerry Porter
saw the most targets (when he wasn't laying knocked silly on the turf) with
10 for 5/74/0 to his credit. TE Teyo Johnson finally found his way onto the
field (1 for 1/8/1), while Ron Curry caught the other score (6 for 4/58/1).
It wasn't a performance for the ages, but Collins gave hope to his fantasy owners
across this land on the eve of Thanksgiving. Collins had a hard time with the
Broncos back in week 6, though, tossing 15/31 for 136 yards, 0 TDs and 1 interception
- recent history isn't on his side this week.
Denver jumped all over the Saints early last week (going up 20-0 in the first
quarter), and then settled into a softer "prevent" mode for the rest
of the contest, which resulted in an inflated 377 yards passing for Aaron Brooks
and company. They did keep the Saints out of the endzone for the most part (1
TD allowed), and intercepted Brooks 3 times, returning one for a score - the
yardage numbers were skewed due to the situation. This season, the Bronco's
secondary is 8th in the NFL allowing an average of 187.5 passing yards per contest,
with only 7 passing scores allowed to date (second-least in the NFL at this
juncture) - they are a hard-nosed bunch almost every week.
Oakland's TE Courtney Anderson was sidelined last week due to his injured knee,
and is likely to stay there this week, too. Denver's secondary is in good shape,
with no major complaints as of Tuesday.
The forecast for Mile High Stadium calls for a high of 32F and a low of 18F
with a 50% chance for rain/sleet/snow. At this time of year, that means the
field could be very slick during the game - if the precipitation comes down
as a heavy snowfall, visibility could also be an issue in this game.
Oakland's offense is starting to find their rhythm, but the Broncos are very
tough, home-field advantage is behind the defense, and the weather may not cooperate
as far as field conditions go. This looks like a tough matchup for Collins and
the Raiders.
New York Giant's Passing Attack vs. The
Philadelphia Defense (Tough Matchup)
Eli Manning saw a little action against the Eagles back in week 1 (back then,
he was relegated to holding the clipboard most of the time) - he managed 3/9
for 66 yards, 0 TDs and 0 interceptions in the very first regular-season action
of his pro career. Last week, he tossed his first pro TD - 17/37 for 162 yards,
1 TD and 2 interceptions - and Manning should have had a better first start
(his receivers dropped several very catchable balls). Jeremy Shockey was his
security blanket last week (11 targets for 5/45/1) - Tiki Barber, Ike Hilliard
and Amani Toomer all had 7 chances, but they all failed to do much with their
opportunities (4/28/0 for Hilliard was the best among the group).
21/34 for 162 yards, 0 TDs and 1 interception was the grand total that Patrick
Ramsey managed vs. The Eagles last week. They are playing high-pressure pass
defense this season, with 29 sacks so far (3rd in the NFL) while allowing an
average of 215.1 passing yards per game (17th in the NFL) and 11 passing scores
to date. The Eagles don't shut people down in this phase of the game, but they
make them pay for their gains (although they have cooled down in the sacking
department recently, with only 4 in their last 3 games). As the Giants lead
the NFL in sacks allowed with 41 surrendered to date, expect to see a whole
lot of blitzing going on this week, which should apply lots of pressure on New
York's rookie QB.
Both teams come into this game in decent shape, with no major new injuries
to worry about.
The forecast for Giants' Stadium calls for a high of 55F with a low of 46F
and a 20% chance for rain - a fine autumnal day is around the corner, it appears.
Manning will have to dodge pass rushers this week - he'll be under a lot of
pressure. This looks like a tough assignment for the youngster.
Tampa Bay's Passing Attack vs. The Carolina
Defense (Tough Matchup)
Brian Griese has settled into his starting role nicely in Tampa Bay, tossing
56/81 for 680 yards, 6 TDs and 3 interceptions during his last 3 games. His
favorite receivers during his those games have been Michael Clayton (19 for
15/249/1) and Ken Dilger (13 for 11/105/2). Joe Jurevicius came on last week
(5 for 5/82/2) to drive up his 3 week sums to 11 targets for 9/128/2. The Buccaneer's
passing offense is on a roll right now.
Carolina deploys one of the league's stingiest secondaries - they have allowed
a mere 6 passing scores so far in 2004, least in the NFL to date - which averages
204.6 passing yards allowed per game. Over the past 3 weeks, they've slipped
somewhat in this phase of the game, allowing 263 passing yards per game on average,
(7 TDs given up, rushing and receiving). Last week, they jumped ahead of Arizona
28-0 and then allowed a lot of "garbage time" yardage to Shaun King
and company (28/52 for 343 yards, 1 TD and 3 interceptions) en route to an easy
35-10 victory.
Tampa's aerial unit is finally fairly healthy, with all their main players
back in the starting lineup, while Carolina also enjoys decent health right
now (no new injuries of note last week).
The forecast for Bank of America Stadium calls for a high of 62F with a low
of 54F and a 20% chance of rain. It sounds like the sky should be "Carolina
Blue" during a fine Piedmont afternoon on Sunday.
Tampa Bay has been gathering momentum in this phase of the game, but the Panthers
are a big roadblock in their path. This should be a tough matchup for the visiting
Bucs.
Houston's Passing Attack vs. The Tennessee
Defense (Tough Matchup)
David Carr played a decent game vs. Green Bay on Sunday night, 13/26 for 164
yards, 1 TD and 0 interceptions - but it wasn't the sort of performance that
propels a team to a fantasy championship. Over the past 3 weeks, he's been unspectacular,
throwing 57/108 for 624 yards, 1 TD and 3 interceptions during that span. Andre
Johnson (6/107/0 last week, with 28 targets for 15/184/0 over the past 3 weeks)
and Domanick Davis (6/41/1 last week, with 19 targets for 15/114/1 during the
past 3 weeks) lead the team in targets and receptions (Jabar Gaffney is third
with 19 targets for 9/127/0 over the past 3 weeks). There are some fantasy points
to be had among the Texans' star players, but not as many as on other NFL squads.
Tennessee strangled the Jaguar's passing attack despite their injury-depleted
secondary, and held David Garrard to 13/27 for 129 yards, 0 TDs and 1 interception
during the game. The Titans aren't usually that sharp, averaging 198.2 passing
yards allowed per game this season (11th in the NFL) with 12 scores given away
to date. However, they've been really fierce recently, with an average of 99
net passing yards allowed in their past 2 games, with only 1 TD given away (rushing
and receiving). The team is finding a way to make do despite their laundry-list
of injuries.
Speaking of injuries, the Titans come into this game without S Tank Williams
(torn knee ligaments), and will likely be without S Lance Schulters, too (foot
injury). CB Andre Woolfolk dislocated a wrist last Sunday and is sidelined,
CB Samari Rolle aggravated his knee injury and couldn't finish the game, and
S Scott McGarrahan has a thigh contusion. The Titans are thin at DB as a result
of all their injury woes. Houston's unit comes into the game in decent shape,
with no major new injuries to report.
The forecast for Reliant Stadium calls for a high of 76F with a low of 49F
and a 30% chance for precipitation. If the rain holds off, it should be a great
day to play some football.
Houston's offense has been unimpressive in this phase of the game lately -
the Titans are depleted by injuries, but managing to play well - this looks
like a tough matchup for the home team.
Baltimore's Passing Attack vs. The New England
Defense (Tough Matchup)
It has become fashionable to point out that Kyle Boller has actually thrown
for 200+ yards and 2 TDs in each of his last 2 games - don't be fooled. The
Jets have injury issues in their secondary at the moment, and Dallas is just
flat-out horrible at pass defense this season - it would have been a disappointment
if Boller hadn't thrown for 200+ yards vs. Dallas, and it is certainly not remarkable.
The guy has yet to prove he can move the ball on a topflight defense (but his
improvement from the beginning of the season is encouraging for Boller owners
in dynasty leagues, no doubt about it). One thing that is not predictable from
week to week is which of the Raven's little-known receivers Boller will throw
to in any given game - the hero of week 10, Clarence Moore (4/45/2 vs. The Jets)
managed just 1/24/0 vs. Dallas (Darnell Dinkins was the fantasy nobody hauling
in a TD this week (3/40/1)) - at least there is a chance that the other TD actually
helped a fantasy owner somewhere, as Kevin Johnson hauled in 4/51/1 last week.
Essentially, if you start a Raven receiver you're just going to need luck to
garner any TDs from the player in any given week.
New England withstood the Chief's blitzkrieg on Monday Night Football, although
they gave up 27/42 for 381 yards, 2 TDs and 1 interception to the Holmes-less
Chiefs. In their prior 2 games, the Patriots had allowed an average of 167 net
passing yards per contest with only 2 TDs allowed (rushing and receiving) -
the KC game was definitely out of character for this bunch. The Patriots average
204 passing yards allowed per game this year (14th in the NFL) with 8 passing
scores surrendered in 10 games. The KC game got out of control, but that doesn't
happen often to this squad.
Baltimore continues to do without TE Todd Heap (he's not been listed higher
than "doubtful" all season due to his ankle injury). New England has
injury woes of their own, with CB Asante Samuel suffering the latest injury
(he was writhing in pain grasping his wrist/forearm after banging it on the
turf Monday night). CBs Ty Law and Tyrone Poole have both missed multiple games
(foot and knee injuries, respectively), forcing WR Troy Brown to do double-duty
as a DB.
The forecast for Gillette Stadium calls for a high of 52F with a low of 35F
and a 20% chance for rain - a crisp autumn day is on tap for this game, it appears.
Baltimore's passing game is improving but still unimpressive, while the Patriots
have been fairly stout in most games (despite last week's shoot-out with the
Chiefs). Advantage, New England.
Washington's Passing Attack vs. The Pittsburgh
Defense (Bad Matchup)
Patrick Ramsey has struggled to produce since being elevated to the starting
role in the Redskins' offense, and it is limiting the fantasy value of the other
members of this squad. Over his first two extended appearances, Ramsey has cobbled
together 39/71 for 372 yards, 1 TD and 3 interceptions - his leading receiver
in that span has been Laveranues Coles (10/108/0 in the last 2 games) - there's
just not a lot of fantasy scoring going on among the Washington players right
now. Until Ramsey proves he can beat teams throwing the ball, the offense is
likely to remain in neutral.
Pittsburgh's opportunistic defense keeps on grinding down their opponents -
last week it was Carson Palmer who threw an interception that was returned for
a TD by James Farrior (Palmer managed 13/25 for 165 yards, 2 TDs and 1 interception
by game's end). Over the past 3 weeks, the Steelers have held opponents to 132
passing yards per game on average, with only 3 TDs surrendered in that span
(rushing and receiving). They are ultra-tough heading into the playoff stretch
run.
Washington reported no new injuries of note after Sunday's game in this phase,
while CBs Chad Scott (quadriceps) and Chidi Iwuoma (hamstring) were sidelined
for the last contest (Scott has missed many games in a row and probably won't
play this week; Iwuoma tweaked a hamstring during pre-game warm-ups last week
and was a late scratch).
The forecast for Heinz Field calls for a high of 53F with a low of 44F and
a 30% chance for precipitation. If the rain holds off, it should be a nice day
to play a game of football.
Washington's pass offense is weak, Pittsburgh's pass defense is very stout
- this is a bad matchup for the Redskins.
San Francisco's Passing Attack vs. The Miami
Defense (Bad Matchup)
There are a lot of terms for a matchup like this one (between two 1-9 teams):
"Battle of the Bad"; "Toilet Bowl"; "Stink-Fest".
Take your pick - this game is more likely to be a comedy of errors than a "Battle
Royale".
We'll let Tim Rattay's statistics speak for us: over the past 3 weeks, the
49ers QB has managed 60/103 for 690 yards, 3 TDs and 6 interceptions. Not too
good, folks. Eric Johnson (19 targets for 12/134/0) and Brandon Lloyd (19 for
10/144/2) have been the best fantasy commodities among the receivers (16th -
best TE and 25th - ranked WR during those 3 weeks). There just hasn't been much
to crow about in the City by the Bay in recent weeks.
Miami's defense has been stout in this phase of the game, allowing an average
of 163 net passing yards per game over their last 2 games, with 14/28 for 196
yards, 1 TD and 2 interceptions surrendered to Trent Dilfer and the Seahawks
last week. Miami has been tough all season long, averaging 152.8 passing yards
allowed per game to date (with 11 TDs given up so far). Regardless of the team's
sad-sack offense, the Miami secondary is no joke.
Both teams enjoy decent health in this phase of the game, with no major new
injuries to report as of early in the week.
The forecast for Monster Stadium calls for a high of 59F with a low of 45F
and a 10% chance of precipitation - pleasant weather is around the corner for
this matchup, it appears.
Rattay and company have struggled mightily in recent weeks - the Dolphins are
very stout in this phase of the game. This is a bad matchup for the 49ers.
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