Passing Matchups - Week 2
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Posted 9/16 by Mark Wimer and Joe Bryant, Exclusive to Footballguys.com
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Hi Folks,
Here's our look at the Passing Matchups for this week.
PLEASE NOTE: This does NOT replace the Cheatsheet ranking. The Cheatsheet rankings
are the final say on where we see a player for that week. The Matchup Breakdowns
are simply one more tool in the box when it comes to helping choose your lineup.
Also note, just because a player has a "bad" matchup, it does NOT
mean he's not a starter in your league. If Randy Moss is playing the toughest
pass defense in the league, that just means he's got a tough matchup that week.
He's also your starter. In the same way, if the worst WR on your roster has
a "great" matchup, that doesn't necessarily mean you start him, it
just means he'll likely fare better this week than he normally would.
Bottom line, the cheatsheets are the final word.
Let's jump to it.
Joe
Week 2 Passing Matchups
By Mark Wimer and Joe Bryant
Detroit's Passing Attack vs. The Houston
Defense (Great Matchup)
Joey Harrington took a huge loss on opening day, when Charles Rogers went down
for the season with another break in his collarbone. The Rogers/Roy Williams
duo a lot of fantasy owners envisioned for 2004 is going to have to wait a year.
The rookie Williams will have to mature quickly now that he's the clear #1 for
Detroit. Az-Zahir Hakim figures to slide into the starting spot across from
Williams (Hakim was banged up for most of 2003 and unimpressive when he managed
to make it onto the field). Uh-oh, Lions' fans and uh-oh Harrington owners.
Fortunately for Detroit, Houston sports a really soft secondary. They were
31st in the league last year, yielding an average of 232 yards per game (22
passing scores). They opened 2004 by giving away 202 passing yards (15th in
the league) but also 2 passing scores. They don't look improved to start 2004.
Aside from Rogers, the Lions come into the game in reasonably good health,
with WR Eddie Drummond (thigh, probable) and TE John Owens (thigh, probable)
listed on the injury report. Houston reports a clean slate in the secondary.
This game will be played in the air-conditioned comfort of Ford Field, so weather
isn't a factor.
Harrington lost a big guy when Rogers went down, but the general ineptness
of the Texans' secondary and home-field advantage puts Harrington in a good
position this week.
New England's Passing Attack vs. The Arizona
Defense (Great Matchup)
Tom Brady and his compatriots came out of the gates smoking hot, with an entire
series of no-huddle, no-back attack to open the 2004 season. He was the 3rd
best fantasy QB last week, going 26/38 for 335 yards, 3 TDs and 1 interception.
TE Daniel Graham looks like he may be key in 2004, with a team-leading 10 targets
(7/57/1). He was followed by Deion Branch (9 targets 7/86/1) and David Patten
(7 targets 4/86/1). All three scored a TD in the game.
Arizona put a scare into the Rams last week, and they did it by limiting the
high-octane pass attack to only 1 TD (272 yards, though). The secondary was
a huge problem for the Cards last season (29th in the NFL, allowing an average
of 224.3 yards per game and 29 passing scores) - it was good news for the team
that they only gave up 1 passing score. Duane Starks was 3rd among fantasy DBs
last week with 10 solo tackles and 3 passes defensed, and Quentin Harris was
6th with 4 solo tackles, 1 assist, 1 interception, 1 forced fumble, 1 fumble
recovery, and 1 pass defensed. Busy boys, huh?
Troy Brown missed the game for New England (knee, questionable). QBs Tom Brady
(shoulder) and Jim Miller (shoulder) are both listed as probable. Arizona's
secondary has no new injuries of note to report.
The forecast for Sun Devil Stadium calls for a high of 95F and a low of 67F
with a 0% chance for rain. In the desert heat, dehydration/cramping will be
battled by both teams.
The Patriots' offense is red-hot and Tom Brady is basically automatic right
now - the Cardinals are somewhat improved, but this looks like a great matchup
for New England.
Carolina's Passing Attack vs. The Kansas
City Defense (Good Matchup)
The huge question for fantasy owners and the Panthers is this: who will fill
Steve Smith's shoes now that he is lost to a nasty ankle fracture? Ricky Proehl
is a fine veteran with a talent for finding soft spots in the opposing D, and
rookie Keary Colbert showed promise in his chances during preseason - there
is definitely going to be potential for serious fantasy points from one of these
players. We think Colbert will have a great shot. Jake Delhomme continues to
be a productive fantasy QB in 2004, with 23/39 for 284 yards, 2 TDs and 1 interception
in week 1 (7th best fantasy QB that week). The Panthers really struggled to
run the ball against Green Bay, but K.C. brings an awful rush defense - Delhomme
may not need to put the ball up 40 times this week.
Kansas City's pass D was soft in week 1, coughing up 211 yards and 2 passing
scores to Jake Plummer (and a total of 413 yards of offense). This group looks
no better than last year's 20th ranked edition (average of 210.2 passing yards
per game).
Aside from Smith's broken ankle, the Panthers are in good health coming into
the game. Kansas City's secondary took an assortment of injuries vs. Denver:
CB William Bartee suffered a serious concussion and a neck strain (questionable),
while Eric Warfield (knee bruise, probable), CB Dexter McCleon (shoulder, probable)
and S Greg Wesley (hamstring strain, questionable) are also nicked up.
The forecast for Arrowhead Stadium calls for a high of 84F and a low of 69F
with 0% chance of precipitation. A fine day to play a game of football is on
tap.
Anytime you go to KC the home field advantage works against you, but this is
a soft pass D with a history of subpar performance. Advantage, Carolina.
Green Bay's Passing Attack vs. The Chicago
Defense (Good Matchup)
Brett Favre and company started off 2004 quietly on MNF, largely due to a gameplan
emphasizing the team's RBs (Carolina coughed up 152 yards and 2 rushing scores
in the game) which led Favre to only attempt 22 passes, going 15/22 for 143
yards, 1 TD and 0 interceptions. There just wasn't much of a fantasy point pie
to share among the receivers - Donald Driver led the pack with 3/39/0 but no
one got over 40 yards receiving on the night.
Chicago's pass defense was pretty mediocre back in 2003, allowing an average
of 192.6 passing yards per game on average (20 pass TDs given up). They opened
2004 in the middle of the pack, giving up 185 yards (13th last week) and 1 TD
to the Lions. They are picking up 2004 where they left off 2003.
Chicago is going without CB Jerry Azumah (neck, out) and may be without CB
R.W. McQuarters (ankle, questionable). TE David Martin is probable to play for
Green Bay (quadriceps).
The forecast for Lambeau field calls for a high of 77F and a low of 57F with
a 20% chance of precipitation. That's some fine football weather, folks.
Favre at Lambeau vs. a mediocre secondary sounds like a recipe for fantasy
points to us. Advantage, Green Bay.
Indianapolis' Passing Attack vs. The Tennessee
Defense (Good Matchup)
Peyton Manning and company couldn't pull out the opener, but in fantasy terms
16/25 16/29 for 256 yards, 2 TDs and 1 interception is a quality outing (6th-best
fantasy QB last week). Interestingly, TE Dallas Clark was heavily targeted (4
targets) and had a nice long catch (1/64/0) while Marcus Pollard only saw one
ball come his way all day and looked like a forgotten man. Harrison remains
the headliner, of course, with 10 targets (7/44/1), and Brandon Stokley contributed
last week (4/77/1) - it looks like Stokley may diminish the fantasy points potential
of Reggie Wayne some weeks although Stokley saw 7 passes thrown his way in this
game.
The Titans weren't really tested by the Dolphins on Saturday, but they gave
up 185 yards and a passing score to a reeling offense nonetheless - not a great
performance in this phase of the game. The Titans gave away a lot of real-estate
in this phase during 2003 (225.4 passing yards per game, 30th in the NFL) -
they aren't a top unit.
Tennessee and Indianapolis come into the game dinged up. WR Troy Walters (broken
arm) is out for the Colts. CB Andre Dyson (shoulder, questionable) and S Lamont
Thompson (shoulder/wrist, questionable) are listed for Tennessee.
The early forecast for The Coliseum in Nashville calls for a high of 79F and
a low of 63F with a 20% chance for rain. Although keep an eye on this as Hurricane
Ivan moves North. There's a chance for severe rain by Sunday.
Manning and company are awesome, the Titans are unimpressive at pass D - the
edge goes to the Colts in this matchup.
Tennessee's Passing Attack vs. The Indianapolis
Defense (Good Matchup)
Miami couldn't stop the Tennessee running backs, and their offense is so awful
that the Titans really didn't need to throw the ball much at all last week,
limiting McNair's fantasy value - but that was an unusual circumstance. We think
McNair will have more air under the ball this week than he did last week. 9/14
for 73 yards, 1 TD and 0 interceptions is not a fantasy performance for the
ages (2/11 rushing), but it was clear the Mason (4 targets) and Bennett (5 targets)
are options A and B for McNair at this point in the season.
Indianapolis' pass defense was very good in 2003, allowing a mere 175.6 passing
yards per game (5th in the NFL) and 18 TDs in 16 games. However, they lost the
services of a major cog in the D, S Mike Doss, when he injured a hamstring (out
for this week), so there is some concern over that in the middle of the secondary.
They were very soft against Tom Brady, giving up 320 net passing yards and 3
passing scores - definitely not where coach Dungy wanted the secondary to be
opening 2004.
Doss' injury is covered above. In addition to Doss, the Colts are down CB Joseph
Jefferson (knee, out) and S Bob Sanders (foot, out). CB Nicholas Harper has
a sore shoulder (questionable), and S Cory Bird a concussion (questionable).
CB Donald Strickland (shoulder, probable) is also listed. The Titans are hoping
that Tyrone Calico might be back for this game (questionable), and WR Jake Schifino
is also questionable (hamstring).
The early forecast for The Coliseum in Nashville calls for a high of 79F and
a low of 63F with a 20% chance for rain. Although keep an eye on this as Hurricane
Ivan moves North. There's a chance for severe rain by Sunday.
McNair is a great talent, and he gets to play on familiar turf Sunday. The
Colts are struggling in this phase to start the season, and come in shorthanded
and dinged-up - advantage, Titans.
Miami's Passing Attack vs. The Cincinnati
Defense (Good Matchup)
Jay Fiedler played his way out of the starting lineup last week with a passer
rating of 8. Yes, 8. (the worst we can recall seeing in a long, long time) -
he was Ryan Leaf/Akili Smith bad in his time on the field. A.J. Feeley didn't
light up the world, but at least he wasn't awful. 21/31 for 168, 1 TD and 1
interception in only part of a game is a decent effort. It'll be interesting
to see what he can do with a full week under center as #1, a full 4 quarters
and a suspect running game in support. Chris Chambers (12), Marty Booker (10)
and Randy McMichael (10) saw the lions' share of the targets last week.
Cincinnati didn't do much to slow down Chad Pennington last week, allowing
219 net passing yards and 2 passing scores in the opening loss. The Bengals
were a lower-tier pass D last year, ranking 24th in the league in yards allowed
per game, so the soft secondary wasn't a big surprise.
CB Deltha O'Neal missed last week's game (ankle, probable), and S Rogers Beckett
sustained his second concussion of 2004 (questionable). S Kim Herring (foot)
is out. Miami is healthy, if nothing else.
The forecast for Paul Brown Stadium calls for a high of 77F and a low of 58F
with a 30% chance of rain. If the rain comes down hard at game time it could
make the field and ball slick.
Until we see more of the Dolphins under Feeley, it's hard to say much about
that offense's potential - its very risky to throw in Dolphin's receivers in
your lineup this week. But considering the defense, this is a good matchup for
Feeley to start out 2004.
New York Jets' Passing Attack vs. The San
Diego Defense (Good Matchup)
Chad Pennington is hot to start 2004, coming into this one off a 20/27 for
224 yards, 2 TDs and 0 interception start against the Bengals. Santana Moss
and Justin McCareins form a great 1-2 punch with 8 targets and 7 targets for
4/55/0 and 5/66/0 respectively last week. The Jets have got their O going on
all cylinders right now.
San Diego opened the season with a win, and denied the Texans the endzone through
the air in so doing. That's great news because they were dreadful at defending
the pass last season, allowing an average of 210.9 passing yards per game but
an astronomical 36 passing TDs. They did allow 226 passing yards, but the improvement
has to encourage the coaches. Terrance Kiel was tops among fantasy DBs last
week, with 7 solo tackles, 3 assists, 1 sack and 1 fumble recovery.
Both teams come into the game in good health.
The forecast for Qualcomm Stadium calls for a high of 74F and a low of 60F
with 0% chance for precipitation. Sounds like perfect football weather is on
tap.
Pennington is hot, the Chargers improving - but they aren't up to the Jets'
standard just yet. Advantage, Jets.
San Diego's Passing Attack vs. The New York
Jets' Defense (Good Matchup)
Drew Brees seemed to have found his football game again. 17/24 for 209 yards,
2 TDs and 0 interceptions is how you keep a rookie sensation on the bench and
try out for a 2005 job. Antonio Gates was HUGE for this team last week, with
9 targets for 9 receptions and 126 yards. Eric Parker (2/25/1) and Reche Caldwell
(4/65/1) give Brees some viable options as the 1-2 WR punch. This is an offense
on the rise, folks.
The Jets' defense was not good vs. Cincinnati in this phase, allowing 238 net
passing yards and 2 scores to Carson Palmer and company. They were a top ten
secondary back in 2003, holding people to 189.1 passing yards per game on average
and only allowing 14 passing scores - the results in this phase last week aren't
where the players expected to be.
Both teams come in with reasonably good health. S Jon McGraw is probable with
a sore abdomen. WR Tim Dwight still has a tweaked hamstring (questionable).
The forecast for Qualcomm Stadium calls for a high of 74F and a low of 60F
with 0% chance for precipitation. Sounds like perfect football weather is on
tap.
San Diego's in good form right now, and playing at home against a less-impressive
Jets secondary they have the edge.
St. Louis' Passing Attack vs. The Atlanta
Defense (Good Matchup)
St. Louis narrowly escaped the surprise upset by the Cardinals last week, but
Marc Bulger had a solid fantasy outing, putting up 23/34 for 274 yards, 1 TD
and 1 interception. Isaac Bruce roared into 2004, seeing 15 targets (9/112/1)
and Torry Holt was his usual sure-handed self (9 targets, resulting in 7/96/0).
The Rams aerial assault rolls on in 2004.
Atlanta barely handled the 49ers last week, and it was partly due to some solid
play in the secondary - Bryan Scott continues to be a solid fantasy DB with
6 solo tackles, 1 sack, and 2 passes defensed to his credit (8th best fantasy
DB last week). However, the team allowed 266 net passing yards and 2 TDs to
the San Francisco dynamic duo of Rattay/Dorsey - the Falcons didn't shut anyone
down. This secondary was dead last in the NFL last year (237.5 passing yards
per game allowed) and gave up 28 passing scores, making last week no big surprise.
They really miss DeAngelo Hall.
Aside from Hall being sidelined, both teams come into the game in decent shape,
health-wise.
This game is to be played in the Georgia Dome, so weather is not a factor.
The Rams love indoor venues, and they have a ton of weapons. Atlanta's new
D is still a work in progress - advantage, Rams.
Washington's Passing Attack vs. The New
York Giants' Defense (Good Matchup)
Division rivalries are intense in the NFC East, and this is a storied clash
- both teams come in to renew the rivalry with new coaching staffs, new players,
and a new outlook on their prospects.
Mark Brunell and company got off to a slow start last week as Joe Gibbs elected
to jam the ball down the Buc's throat with Clinton Portis most of the day. 13/24
with 125 yards passing, 0 TDs and 0 interceptions left a small pie of FP's for
his receivers in week 1 (Laveranues Coles had 8 targets and 3/27/0 receiving,
Rod Gardner saw 7 balls for 4/61/0 to lead the team). However, the Buccaneers
deploy one of the top secondaries in the NFL.
The Giants do not have a top secondary. Last year they ranked 25th in the NFL
allowing an average of 213 yards per game, while surrendering 25 scores. To
open 2004, they were ripped for 313 net passing yards and 4 thrown TDs by Donovan
McNabb and the Eagles. Ouch.
Coles, as always, is dealing with his broken big toe as best as he is able.
TE Brian Koslowski has a sore calf (probable). The Giants come into the game
with S Omar Stoutmire (knee-IR) and CB Frank Walker (foot, out) unavailable.
The forecast for Giants' Stadium calls for a high of 75F with a low of 60F
and a 60% chance for rain. If the rain comes down hard at game time, the field
may be slick and sloppy making footing/ball handling an issue.
Washington should bounce back in this phase in a big way this week. Advantage,
Redskins.
Philadelphia's Passing Attack vs. The Minnesota
Defense (Good Matchup)
Two of week one's most potent offenses meet in this MNF game - it looks like
it will be a barn-burner.
Donovan McNabb was outstanding in his first start, and won a lot of fantasy
games for his owners. 26/36 for 330 yards, 4 TDs and 0 interceptions (4/12/0
rushing). What else needs to be said? Terrell Owens' days as an Eagle started
auspiciously 8/68/3, and Todd Pinkston looks like a solid #2 and comfortable
in that role (he never was as the #1), with an astronomical 25.3 ypc average
on 3/76/0. It's all roses for the Eagles right now.
Minnesota's pass D gave up a ton of yards to the Cowboys (who were without
an effective running game and way behind most of the game), allowing 352 yards
but only a single pass TD. They were near the bottom of the league last year,
surrendering an average of 217.3 passing yards per game on average, but 352
is definitely atypical. Antoine Winfield had a huge IDP game with 9 solo tackles,
2 forced fumbles, 1 fumble recovery and 1 pass defensed (5th fantasy DB last
week).
Both teams are in relatively decent health coming into the game, with the Vikings
listing CB Rushen Jones (chest, probable).
The forecast for Lincoln Financial Field calls for a high of 76F and a low
of 62F with a 30% chance for rain. With the remnants of Hurricane Ivan hanging
around, though, who can say what conditions will look like on Monday right now?
Keep an eye on that situation as roster deadlines approach later in the week.
High-flying Eagles meet a soft secondary at home - sounds like advantage Philadelphia
to us.
Kansas City's Passing Attack vs. The Carolina
Defense (Neutral Matchup)
Trent Green had a relatively quiet night vs. Denver, watching Priest Holmes
trample the Broncos at will. 16/32 for 174 yards, 0 TDs and 1 interception just
isn't going to get the job done for fantasy squads. Eddie Kennison is emerging
as an tantalizing fantasy prospect, with 11 targets last week for 6/101/0 -
he got thrown at more than any other player, while Tony Gonzalez was second
with 8 targets (3/23/0).
Carolina's pass D fared well against Green Bay, holding Brett Favre to 127
passing yards and only 1 TD. However, the game plan was clearly to run right
at the defense, so that statistic is somewhat misleading (Favre only threw the
ball 22 times in the game). They were the 9th best secondary in the NFL last
season, though (187.7 passing yards per game), so this is a stout unit most
weeks.
Both teams come into the game looking pretty healthy, excepting TE Kris Wilson
(still out due to his broken ankle), and WR Samie Parker (hamstring, questionable).
The forecast for Arrowhead Stadium calls for a high of 84F and a low of 69F
with 0% chance of precipitation. A fine day to play a game of football is on
tap.
Green has some respectable weapons and is playing at home - Carolina is no
push over in this phase, though. We call it a neutral matchup.
Chicago's Passing Attack vs. The Green Bay
Defense (Neutral Matchup)
Rex Grossman underwhelmed most observers in week 1, with a weak fantasy outing
of 16/35 for 227 yards, 0 TDs and 2 interceptions. He looked confused when under
pressure and generally unsure of what to do. Despite Grossman's poor play, David
Terrell showed that he shouldn't be ignored in fantasy circles, catching 5/126/0
to place 7th among all fantasy WRs in week 1. 9 balls came his way (most targets
on the team) so there was even greater potential for performance - he looks
"for real", fantasy owners.
Green Bay's pass D was in the bottom tier of performers during week 1, coughing
up 262 net passing yards and 2 TDs to Jake Delhomme and company - not too good
(25th in the NFL last week). Last season they were the 23rd pass defense in
the land (212.5 passing yards per game allowed, on average) so the bottom tier
of pass defenses is familiar territory for the Pack.
Both units come into the game in decent shape, health wise.
The forecast for Lambeau field calls for a high of 77F and a low of 57F with
a 20% chance of precipitation. That's some fine football weather, folks.
A weak QB faces off against a substandard pass D in this one - that sounds
like a neutral matchup to us.
Denver's Passing Attack vs. The Jacksonville
Defense (Neutral Matchup)
Jake Plummer played a typical up-and-down game, making some bone-headed plays
(like throwing an interception left handed) but also some great plays. If he
could get settled down and focus for an entire game, the potential is there
for some great fantasy outings. As things ended up, Plummer was the 8th best
fantasy QB last week, 18/29 for 230 yards, 2 TDs and 2 interceptions (7/33/0
rushing). Rod Smith grabbed 7/76/0 (9 targets) and Ashley Lelie made the best
of his chances with 4/88/0 from 5 targets.
Jacksonville smothered the Bill's passing attack, limiting them to 147 net
passing yards (8th best performance in week 1) and only 1 passing score - the
Jags are off to a solid 2004 campaign in this phase. This is an improvement
over 2003 when the Jaguars averaged 203.2 passing yards allowed per game (20th
in the NFL) - they are moving in the right direction, anyway. Donovin Darius
was the 7th best fantasy DB last week, with 6 solo tackles, 1 sack, and 2 passes
defensed.
WR Ashley Lelie, is listed as probable due to a sore shoulder. Otherwise, there
are no injury concerns of note in this matchup.
The forecast for AllTel Stadium calls for a high of 88F and a low of 74F with
a 20% chance of precipitation. It should be a good day to play football.
Plummer has a ton of fantasy potential, and good weapons at his disposal -
the Jags are playing solid D to open 2004 and are the home team. That sounds
pretty even to us.
Houston's Passing Attack vs. The Detroit
Defense (Neutral Matchup)
David Carr disappointed in the season opener, with 19/25 for 229 yards, 0 TDs
and 2 interceptions against the San Diego defense. Not too good, folks. Andre
Johnson was plan A all day, seeing 8 targets for 4/58/0 worth of production.
Interestingly, Billy Miller was only thrown to one time - he may not be the
security blanket that he once was for Carr.
Detroit's pass defense was respectable in the opener, allowing 214 yards (18th
in the NFL) but 0 TDs in the victory over Chicago. The Lions were bottom-tier
as a unit last year (28th in the league allowing 223.6 passing yards per game
on average and 26 passing TDs), so the solid start was a good sign for the Lions.
Although you have to wonder how much of that was Chicago's doing.
Unfortunately for the Lions, their starting RCB Dre Bly sprained a ligament
in his knee and is out for this week's game, a definite loss to the secondary.
CB Fernando Bryant (concussion, probable) and CB Andre Goodman (thigh, probable)
are dinged up. Houston comes into the game reasonably healthy, with TE Billy
Miller listed as probable due to a tweaked hamstring.
This game will be played in the air-conditioned comfort of Ford Field, so weather
isn't a factor.
Carr has the weapons to make some noise, but needs to quit turning the ball
over. Detroit is playing respectable defense and will be in friendly territory
- we still see this as fairly neutral.
Baltimore's Passing Attack vs. The Pittsburgh
Defense (Neutral Matchup)
Baltimore's offense is not geared to throw the ball. Good thing, because Kyle
Boller is struggling right now. 22/38 for 191 yards, 0 TDs and 2 interceptions
isn't going to win too many games in this league, or your fantasy league, either.
Todd Heap was thrown at 15 times (9/86/0) and Kevin Johnson saw 9 balls (5/43/0).
There just isn't much to get excited about Baltimore in this phase of the game.
The Pittsburgh D was lit up by Rich Gannon and company, allowing 297 net passing
yards and 2 TDs in the season opener. That's not too good, folks. They averaged
100 yards less per game in 2003 (190.4) and gave away 20 TDs in 16 games. They
can't be pleased with their secondary right now there in Pittsburgh.
WR Travis Taylor re-injured his groin (questionable) last week and couldn't
return to action. S Ainsley Battles injured his ankle last week vs. Oakland.
The forecast for M&T Bank Stadium calls for a high of 79F and a low of
67F with a 60% chance of precipitation. If the rain comes down hard at game
time, the ball and field could get slick.
A struggling offense meets a reeling defense in this game - we think it's an
even matchup.
San Francisco's Passing Attack vs. The New
Orleans Defense (Neutral Matchup)
Tim Rattay's shoulder is injured, so Ken Dorsey will get his chance to show
he is a NFL caliber talent this weekend. Dorsey did some good things in preseason,
so the 49ers are hopeful he can perform, although Dorsey was knocked out of
the game last week with a shoulder injury, too. Brandon Lloyd was a disappointment
last week in fantasy points, but he was targeted 13 times so don't give up on
him yet. Cedric Wilson played well with 7/94/1 on 10 targets. The ball is going
to be in the air in this offense - it's up to the receivers to make some plays.
New Orleans was stomped in their opener by the Seahawks, and allowed 246 net
passing yards and a passing TD in the loss. It was an atypically bad performance
considering that the Saints were the 8th ranked pass defense last year allowing
an average of 187.1 yards and 20 scores last season.
New Orleans' CB Jason Craft has a sore ankle (questionable). The 49ers are
in shaky health at QB, but otherwise OK.
This game is to be played in the air-conditioning in the Superdome (if Hurricane
Ivan cooperates). Weather is a factor, but not regarding game-play.
The 49ers are young and untested, the Saints are reeling from a bad game. We
call this one an even matchup.
New Orleans Passing Attack vs. The San Francisco
Defense (Neutral Matchup)
Aaron Brooks was off-target too much in the season opener, with 18/37 for 223
yards, 1 TD and 1 interception (2/16/0 rushing). He needs to complete more passes
and make better decisions than he did last week. Joe Horn remains "the
Man" in New Orleans, with 10 targets for 6/110/0 on the day. Ernie Conwell
caught the touchdown and 3/32 on 4 targets.
San Francisco was stout against the pass last week, allowing 132 yards and
1 score (5th best performance in week 1). The defense was much improved over
their 2003 average (202.4, 17th in the league).
CB Mike Rumph injured his groin last week and is doubtful to play, while fellow
CB Ahmed Plummer has a strained neck (not listed). S Dwaine Carpenter has a
sore knee (questionable). Injuries are an issue for the 49ers secondary right
now.
This game is to be played in the air-conditioning in the Superdome (if Hurricane
Ivan cooperates). Weather is a factor, but not regarding game-play.
Brooks is struggling, and the 49ers are improving but shorthanded. With home
field advantage working on the Saints' side, this is an even matchup.
Minnesota's Passing Attack vs. The Philadelphia
Defense (Neutral Matchup)
Two of week one's most potent offenses meet in this MNF game - it looks like
it will be a barn-burner.
The only QB who outscored Donovan McNabb last week was Daunte Culpepper - 17/23
for 242 yards, 5 TDs and 0 interceptions (with 6/25/0 rushing) put his owners
in fantasy heaven week 1. Randy Moss was "Mr. Endzone" with 4/27/2
receiving and a nice 37 yard pass to his credit. Marcus Robinson got out of
the doghouse by converting 5 targets into 3/54/1, and Kelly Campbell snagged
a long ball (1/43/1) as did Onterrio Smith (1/63/1). The Eagles spanked the
Cowboys, period.
Philadelphia held down Kurt Warner and understudy Eli Manning in week 1, allowing
243 net passing yards but 0 scores. Last season, they were strictly average
allowing an average of 202.3 passing yards per game (16th in the NFL) but were
stingy in the redzone with 17 passing scores allowed all season. Week 1 was
just about par for the course for this bunch.
Philly CB Lito Sheppard broke his right thumb but played through the injury
last week, and expects to do so this week, too. The team also lists S Michael
Lewis (quadriceps, probable) Minnesota comes into the game with TE Jim Kleinsasser
listed as out due to a balky knee.
The forecast for Lincoln Financial Field calls for a high of 76F and a low
of 62F with a 30% chance for rain. With the remnants of Hurricane Ivan hanging
around, though, who can say what conditions will look like on Monday right now?
Keep an eye on that situation as roster deadlines approach later in the week.
Minnesota sports a high-octane attack, but the Eagles are not pushovers and
they have home-field advantage on MNF. This looks like a neutral matchup to
us before the fact.
Buffalo's Passing Attack vs. The Oakland
Defense (Tough Matchup)
Eric Moulds is back as a viable fantasy WR this season, it appears. With 8
targets and 8/75/1 receiving, he literally caught every ball that came his way
from Drew Bledsoe in week 1. That's good news for his fantasy owners. Bledsoe
had a workmanlike game vs. the Jacksonville D, with 17/26 for 153 yards, 1 TD
and 0 interceptions last week (21st fantasy QB in the land). Josh Reed only
saw 4 balls and went 2/18/0 last week as the second-most targeted player in
the game -Moulds is clearly the best fantasy threat on this aerial unit.
Oakland's pass D was substandard last year, ranking 22nd in the NFL allowing
an average of 212.1 passing yards per contest (21 TDs surrendered). They opened
the 2004 regular season with a 4th ranked performance, however, allowing a mere
130 yards passing to Tommy Maddox and the Steelers (0 pass TDs).
Both teams came through week 1 in decent health. LB Sam Williams is doubtful
and did not practice with the team Wednesday.
The forecast for Network Associates Coliseum in Oakland calls for a high of
71F and a low of 54F, with a 10% chance for precipitation. That sounds like
great football weather to us.
The jury is still out on the Oakland pass D, but they were a top performer
last week while the Bills' attack was strictly pedestrian. Advantage, Oakland.
Oakland's Passing Attack vs. The Buffalo
Defense (Tough Matchup)
Rich Gannon roared back into fantasy prominence in week 1, tossing 20/37 for
305 yards, 2 TDs and 2 interceptions in the game vs. Pittsburgh. That performance
puts him at #6 among all fantasy QBs in FP per game so far in 2004. Jerry Porter
had a disappointing fantasy outing, with only 4/44/0 to show for 4 quarters
of work, but he was targeted twice as much as any other player on the team (10
targets) and still figures to be the #1 fantasy WR from this squad in most weeks.
Don't panic and drop Porter based on the poor week 1 showing. Doug Gabriel made
the most of his 4 chances, snagging 3/81/1 and is someone to keep an eye on
this week.
Buffalo played great pass D in 2003, ranking 2nd in the NFL with an average
of only 169.2 passing yards allowed per game (18 passing scores given up). They
opened 2004 as tough as ever, allowing only 142 passing yards (7th in the NFL)
last week, with 1 pass TD surrendered. They are one of the elite units in the
league.
Oakland WR Ronald Curry was hampered by cramps last week, but should be fine
to play this week. Buffalo's secondary comes into the game healthy - injuries
aren't a big factor heading into this game.
The forecast for Network Associates Coliseum in Oakland calls for a high of
71F and a low of 54F, with a 10% chance for precipitation. That sounds like
great football weather to us.
An elite defense meets a reemerging fantasy force (Gannon) in this game - home
field advantage levels the field a bit between the two units but it's still
a tough matchup.
Cleveland's Passing Attack vs. The Dallas
Defense (Tough Matchup)
Jeff Garcia made a statement in his first start of the season, leading the
Browns to a surprise victory vs. The Baltimore Ravens. He snuck into the top
ten of fantasy QBs with 15/24 for 180 yards, 1 TD and 0 interceptions passing
(3/13/1 rushing). It was an impressive performance against a tough opponent.
His top targets on Sunday were William Green (7) and Kellen Winslow II (6) -
Quincy Morgan caught the score on a long 46 yard reception.
Dallas, who led the NFL last season with an average of 164.4 passing yards
allowed per game, was torched by Daunte Culpepper and company to the tune of
279 yards (28th in the league) and 5 passing scores (dead last). It was an embarrassing
outing for the proud Dallas defense. They are normally much tougher.
TE Steve Heiden is out due to a knee injury. Dallas' secondary has not injuries
of note to report on Wednesday.
The forecast for Texas Stadium calls for a high of 91F and a low of 71F with
a 0% chance of precipitation. An excellent game-day forecast, that is.
Garcia proved last week that he is a big upgrade over the Browns' starters
of years past, against a top D. He gets another chance to prove himself against
a shaken but still talented secondary in the hostile environs of Texas Stadium
this week - that's a tough matchup, regardless of the Dallas meltdown in week
1.
Dallas' Passing Attack vs. The Cleveland
Defense (Tough Matchup)
Dallas came out of the gates full throttle in this phase, playing catch up
to the high-octane Vikings all day on Sunday. Vinny Testaverde had a top-5 fantasy
game with 29/50 for 355 yards, 1 TD and 0 interceptions. The yardage pie was
pretty evenly split up among Keyshawn Johnson (9/111/0), Antonio Bryant (8/112/0)
and Terry Glenn (5/84/1). Glenn made an impressive diving catch on the TD play
- he's playing with heart to start the 2004 season.
Cleveland's defense was stout against the soft Raven's attack, allowing only
166 net passing yards and 0 TDs on the day. The Browns sported a top 10 secondary
in 2003, so the performance was no surprise.
Cleveland is in good shape, health-wise, while Dallas lists WR Randal Williams
as out (shoulder).
The forecast for Texas Stadium calls for a high of 91F and a low of 71F with
a 0% chance of precipitation. An excellent game-day forecast, that is.
A renaissance performance last week by Testaverde makes this an intriguing
matchup for fantasy owners, but it won't be easy against a tough Cleveland secondary.
Cincinnati's Passing Attack vs. The Miami
Defense (Tough Matchup)
Carson Palmer started silencing his doubters last week with a game effort in
the loss to the Jets. 18/27 for 248 yards, 2 TDs and 1 interception carved him
a top ten finish on the fantasy QB totem pole (9th) - he threw to Chad Johnson
a lot (8 targets for 5/99/1) and Peter Warrick was a solid second-fiddle (7
targets for 5/76/0 worth of production). The Bengals looked pretty potent to
start 2004.
Miami's defense led the league in fewest passing yards allowed last week (a
mere 61), but their rush defense was so soft and their offense so pathetic that
the Titans stomped the Dolphins anyway. Last year they only gave up 12 passing
scores all year - this unit doesn't break down often.
Miami lists CB Patrick Surtain as questionable due to a groin injury. CBs Lamont
Brightful (shoulder) and Reggie Howard (hamstring) are probable. WR Peter Warrick
has a sore shin (questionable).
The forecast for Paul Brown Stadium calls for a high of 77F and a low of 58F
with a 30% chance of rain. If the rain comes down hard at game time it could
make the field and ball slick.
Miami's secondary is to be respected, but these aren't the '90s Bengals - they
can move the ball. Even so, it's a tough matchup.
Arizona's Passing Attack vs. The New England
Defense (Tough Matchup)
Josh McCown survived the Rams' assault with only 2 sacks against him in week
1 - he was the 26th ranked fantasy QB with 18/29 for 181 yards, 0 TDs and 0
interceptions in the game. It's tough to blame that on McCown considering how
depleted his receiving corps is at this juncture. Larry Fitzgerald did some
nice things with his 9 targets (4/70/0) and looks like a fantasy keeper.
New England's pass D was shaky in the opener, allowing 244 passing yards and
2 TDs - to Peyton Manning and company. They only allowed 11 passing scores last
season, so the 2 TDs allowed performance was abnormal for this group. Eugene
Wilson was the 10th best fantasy DB last week with 7 solo tackles, 1 assist,
1 forced fumble and 1 fumble recovery.
Anquan Boldin remains sidelined with his repaired knee. New England is in fine
health coming into this game.
The forecast for Sun Devil Stadium calls for a high of 95F and a low of 67F
with a 0% chance for rain. In the desert heat, dehydration/cramping will be
battled by both teams.
The Cards aren't comparable to Peyton Manning and company - they will struggle
against the tough Patriot defense.
Seattle's Passing Attack vs. The Tampa Bay
Defense (Tough Matchup)
Seattle's just getting warmed up this season - but they come into this game
without their top gun at RB Shaun Alexander. That will probably lead them to
rely on Matt Hasselbeck's arm a little more than usual. Hasselbeck was adequate
as a fantasy starter last week (19/29 for 246 yards, 1 TD and 1 interception)
but not great. Darrell Jackson and Koren Robinson remain 1A and 1B in the offense,
with 10 and 7 targets for 7/98/0 and 3/35/0 respectively.
Tampa Bay mostly shut down the Washington pass game last week, limiting QB
Mark Brunell to 125 net yards and 0 TDs in the season opener. They were 3rd
last year allowing only 169.4 passing yards per game, on average. This is one
solid secondary the Buccaneers deploy.
Both teams come into the game in reasonably good health. S Dwight Smith (ribs)
is probable to play for Tampa.
The forecast for Raymond James Stadium is for a high of 88F and a low of 73F
with a 20% chance for rain. As long as Ivan doesn't hook East, it'll be a good
day for football.
Seattle is a high-octane offense, but it is never easy to visit Raymond James
Stadium. This will be a challenging game for the Seahawks.
Tampa Bay's Passing Attack vs. The Seattle
Defense (Tough Matchup)
Tampa took a huge hit last week, losing their #1 WR Joey Galloway to a serious
groin injury. They don't have very many other options at WR (Tim Brown, Michael
Clayton and Charles Lee are the top 3 still standing). There just isn't a lot
to work with for Brad Johnson with Galloway sidelined and McCardell maintaining
his holdout.
Seattle frustrated the Saints last week, holding Brooks and company to 207
net passing yards and 1 score. They appear improved over the 2003 version that
allowed an average of 217.5 passing yards per game (27th in the NFL) and 24
passing scores.
Aside from Galloway's woes, the Buccaneers are OK. S Terreal Bierria (quad,
questionable) is listed by Seattle.
The forecast for Raymond James Stadium is for a high of 88F and a low of 73F
with a 20% chance for rain. As long as Ivan doesn't hook East, it'll be a good
day for football.
Tampa's receiver cupboard is almost bare, and the Seahawks have the look of
an improved secondary. This will be a tough game for Brad Johnson and company.
Atlanta's Passing Attack vs. The St. Louis
Defense (Tough Matchup)
Michael Vick continues to learn the team's new West Coast Offense, and it is
lessening his fantasy value. 13/22 for 163 yards, 1 TD and 1 interception (6/10/0
rushing) is nothing to write home about (18th-ranked fantasy QB in week 1).
Alge Crumpler looks like a fantasy force at TE, though, seeing 7 targets for
6/82/1. He and Price (7 for 4/62/0) were thrown at the most in week 1. This
unit continues to be a work in progress, though.
St. Louis managed the Cardinals and their depleted WR stable handily in week
1, allowing a mere 157 net passing yards and 0 scores in the home opener. The
Rams were an above-average secondary in 2003, averaging 192 passing yards allowed
per game (12th in the NFL) and 23 passing scores. This is a solid squad of players.
St. Louis had some minor injuries to start the season: CB Aeneas Williams suffered
a calf injury but returned to action, while CB Jerametrius Butler dislocated
2 fingers (he stayed on the field). S Adam Archuleta's back is sore (probable),
while CB Travis Fisher (forearm) remains sidelined. Atlanta's team came out
of week 1 basically sound, health-wise.
This game is to be played in the Georgia Dome, so weather is not a factor.
Vick just can't seem to get comfortable yet (no surprise, considering his lack
of reps in preseason) - the Rams have a confident and experienced secondary
that is playing pretty well. Advantage, St. Louis.
The New York Giants' Passing Attack vs.
The Washington Defense (Tough Matchup)
Division rivalries are intense in the NFC East, and this is a storied clash
- both teams come in to renew the rivalry with new coaching staffs, new players,
and a new outlook on their prospects.
The Giants were mediocre in this phase during the opener, and Kurt Warner didn't
look like he's back at the top of his game just yet (16/28 for 203 yards, 0
TDs and 0 interceptions, with 1 fumble lost) - but to be fair, it's hard to
look good behind the subpar OL that the Giants are muddling through with at
the moment. The Eagles led the NFL in sacks last week (5). Ike Hilliard had
lots of chances (9) but dropped some balls he needed to catch, including a TD
opportunity. 3/59/0 was a poor effort considering how many looks Hilliard saw.
Amani Toomer was a fantasy disappointment as well, (7 targets) with a mere 4/41/0
to his credit. Shockey's 2/39/0 put him at #13 on the TE board last week (he
needs to get in rhythm after missing so much time in preseason). Disappointing
is the word that best sums up the Giants' opener. Eli Manning began his understudy
role with 3/9 for 66 yards, 0 TDs and 0 interceptions during garbage time.
The Redskins, on the other hand, won their home opener and (sans Bronco Champ
Bailey) strangled the Buccaneer passing attack (139 yards and 0 scores in week
1). They were a mediocre unit in 2003, but the new personnel (and fielding a
half-decent offense that gives the defense time to get their breath) are making
things tough on the opposition. Matt Bowen had a monster IDP game, with 8 solo
tackles, 2 sacks and a forced fumble. One big concern for the Giants (who gave
up 5 sacks to Philadelphia last week) is that the Redskins are pass-rushing
with a vengeance right now (4 sacks vs. Tampa in week 1). Uh-oh, Kurt Warner.
Both teams come into the game in reasonably good health, although WR Jamaar
Taylor (hamstring, out) can't go for the Giants.
The forecast for Giants' Stadium calls for a high of 75F with a low of 60F
and a 60% chance for rain. If the rain comes down hard at game time, the field
may be slick and sloppy making footing/ball handling an issue.
The Giants are struggling to get their O going, while the Redskins are playing
in top form right now. Advantage, Washington.
Jacksonville's Passing Attack vs. The Denver
Defense (Bad Matchup)
Byron Leftwich was underwhelming in his first outing of 2004, and hit a lucky
"prayer"-type pass to win the game last week on the last play (throwing
into heavy coverage). 18/36 for 147 yards, 1 TD and 2 interceptions with 2/11/0
rushing isn't going to put many fantasy squads into the playoffs. Jimmy Smith
saw 10 targets come his way (4/83/0) and is clearly option "A" for
Leftwich.
Denver's pass defense was tough on the Chiefs, allowing a mere 151 yards and
0 TDs last week. Champ Bailey was outstanding in coverage and also reeled in
an interception, but he is still well down on the fantasy DB board (33) because
he just doesn't get thrown at a whole lot. He looks like a difference maker,
even for a squad that was top ten in this phase last season (6th in the NFL
allowing an average of 176.8 passing yards per game).
Bailey had stitches put in his chin during the game, and fellow CB's Lenny
Walls (shoulder injury, out) and Kelly Herndon (leg cramps, not listed this
week) were forced from the game. Jacksonville had no health problems coming
out of week 1 other than Kyle Brady's bad finger (out, still healing from surgery).
The forecast for AllTel Stadium calls for a high of 88F and a low of 74F with
a 20% chance of precipitation. It should be a good day to play football.
Leftwich isn't very impressive in the early going, and Denver is stout. This
is a very tough matchup for the Jaguar's unit.
Pittsburgh's Passing Attack vs. The Baltimore
Defense (Bad Matchup)
Tommy Maddox had a "blah" fantasy outing last week, tossing a mere
22 passes (13 completions) for 142 yards, 0 TDs and 0 interceptions (Jerome
Bettis plunged in 3 TDs). The only receiver to do anything fantasy-worthy in
those conditions was Hines Ward (6/101/0). The Steelers are going to grind out
the ball on the ground a lot this season, it appears.
Baltimore's D was shocked by the Browns 20-3, and they allowed 165 passing
yards and 1 TD in the loss. Not a ton of offense, but enough to lose the game.
The Ravens were 4th in the NFL last season while allowing 175.3 passing yards
per game and 19 passing scores - so the game last week was not typical for this
unit.
Baltimore's starting RCB Gary Baxter had stitches in his hand last week, but
returned to game play (probable). Pittsburgh comes into the game listing CB
Chad Scott as probable despite a sore groin.
The forecast for M&T Bank Stadium calls for a high of 79F and a low of
67F with a 60% chance of precipitation. If the rain comes down hard at game
time, the ball and field could get slick.
Maddox is stone cold from the fantasy perspective, and you shouldn't expect
him to heat up against Baltimore.
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