Passing Matchups - Week 3
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Posted 9/23 by Mark Wimer and Joe Bryant, Exclusive to Footballguys.com
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Hi Folks,
Here's our look at the Passing Matchups for this week.
PLEASE NOTE: This does NOT replace the Cheatsheet ranking. The Cheatsheet rankings
are the final say on where we see a player for that week. The Matchup Breakdowns
are simply one more tool in the box when it comes to helping choose your lineup.
Also note, just because a player has a "bad" matchup, it does NOT
mean he's not a starter in your league. If Randy Moss is playing the toughest
pass defense in the league, that just means he's got a tough matchup that week.
He's also your starter. In the same way, if the worst WR on your roster has
a "great" matchup, that doesn't necessarily mean you start him, it
just means he'll likely fare better this week than he normally would.
Bottom line, the cheatsheets are the final word.
Let's jump to it.
Joe
Byes
- Buffalo's Drew Bledsoe, Eric Moulds and company
- New England's Tom Brady, Daniel Graham and company
- New York Jets' Chad Pennington, Santana Moss and company
- Carolina's Jake Delhomme, Keary Colbert, Muhsin Muhammad and company
Denver's Passing Attack vs. The San Diego
Defense (Great Matchup)
Jake Plummer had a slow game against the tough Jags defense last week, managing
23/39 for 250 yards, but 0 TDs and 0 interceptions. He threw at Rod Smith all
day (11 targets for 6/83/0) and also tossed a few to Ashley Lelie (7 targets
for 3/53/0). Lelie averaged 25.5 yards per catch vs. the Chargers last year,
so look for the long-ball to go his way on Sunday. Preseason phenom Darius Watts
didn't handle his opportunities well (4 for 1/11/0). Over the first 2 games
of the season, Plummer is the 12th best fantasy QB averaging 17.85 fantasy points
per game, so don't let one bad week against a tough D get you too far down.
You knew it would be a wild ride when you drafted Plummer, didn't you?
Chad Pennington carved up the Chargers for 22/29 for 258 yards, 2 TDs and 0
interceptions last week. They are once again bottom-feeding in this category,
allowing an average of 242 passing yards per game (26th in the NFL) and 2 scores
to date. Nobody is afraid to throw the ball at the Chargers.
San Diego S Hanik Milligan strained a hamstring on Sunday (not listed). Denver's
team is in good health coming into this game, with only Darius Watts listed
(buttocks, probable).
The forecast for Mile High Stadium calls for a high of 72F and a low of 47F
with a 30% chance of showers. Heavy precipitation at game time could make the
field soggy and slippery.
Plummer has several respectable weapons to throw at the outclassed Chargers'
secondary. Advantage, Denver.
Atlanta's Passing Attack vs. The Arizona
Defense (Great Matchup)
Michael Vick catapulted himself into the top 10 among fantasy QBs last week,
with 14/19 for 179 yards, 1 TD and 0 interceptions passing, and 12 rushes for
109 yards. That put him at #5 among all fantasy QBs in fantasy points for that
week (he's at #11 over the first 2 weeks). The problem for fantasy owners of
Peerless Price and Alge Crumpler is that he's hitting FB Justin Griffith (4/78/1
last week) with as many targets (4) and more TDs (1) than he is tossing to his
top WR and TE. While Vick owners were glad to see him scrambling around, he
just hasn't produced big passing numbers yet this season.
Arizona's defense is not terribly good at either defending the pass (allowing
an average of 236.5 passing yards per game, 24th in the NFL) or pressuring the
opposing passer (2 sacks in 2 weeks, tied for next-to-last in the NFL). They
have allowed 3 passing scores in 2 weeks - this just isn't a stalwart bunch,
folks. SS Adrian Wilson was a top IDP DB last week, with 10 tackles, 1 assist,
and 2 passes defensed in the loss to New England.
Atlanta's Brian Finneran injured his left Achilles last week (questionable
on Wednesday). Arizona comes into the game with no new injuries to report amongst
the secondary.
This game is to be played in the Georgia Dome, so weather won't be a factor.
Vick is gaining confidence and accuracy passing in the new offensive system,
even if he hasn't thrown for huge numbers just yet. The Cardinals stink up the
joint in this phase of the game, so you have to like Vick's chances to break
out in week 3.
Chicago's Passing Attack vs. The Minnesota
Defense (Great Matchup)
Chicago shocked the Packers in Lambeau Field last week, and gave them a solid
beating. However, Rex Grossman was fairly quiet, contributing a modest 10/18
for 132 yards, 1 TD and 1 interception on the day. The most remarkable thing
about the passing game was the disappearance of David Terrell for the afternoon
- he saw the grand total of 1 ball come his way. That doesn't make his owners
very happy, folks. After two weeks of NFL action, Grossman is the 27th fantasy
QB in the land, averaging 10.9 fantasy points per game.
Minnesota is dead last in the NFL after two weeks of action, allowing an average
of 289 passing yards per game and 3 TDs to date. McNabb had 245 yards and 2
TDs against them in the Monday night victory, most recently. The Vikings are
not playing well in this phase of the game, despite the assemblage of talent
among their DBs
Both teams enjoy decent health coming into the game.
This game is to be played in the Metrodome, so weather won't be a factor.
Grossman is turning in workmanlike outings lately and we have a hard time recommending
him, but there is no denying that this is a great matchup for him and his young
cadre of receivers.
Minnesota's Passing Attack vs. The Chicago
Defense (Great Matchup)
Daunte Culpepper gave a bunch of fantasy owners heartburn after his Monday
Night Football appearance, narrowly missing two rushing scores and only managing
1 passing TD all night (37/47 for 343 yards, 1 TD and 1 interception on the
night). The team stalled in the redzone, managing to convert FGs rather than
TDs. Randy Moss (10 targets for 8/69), Nate Burleson (9 targets for 5/67/0)
and Jermaine Wiggins (8 targets for 8/65/0) led the team in targets and yards
during the game. However, the team announced this week that Wiggins broke his
left hand in the game, and is likely lost for 2-3 weeks while the injury heals.
Chicago held Brett Favre to 24/42 for 252 yards, 1 TD and 2 interceptions on
Sunday, but lost a major cog in their passing defense when FS Mike Brown tore
his right Achilles tendon late in the game. With CB Jerry Azumah (neck, out)
and Charles Tillman (knee, out) also injured, the Bears secondary is woefully
thin on quality players. S Cameron Worrell (hamstring) is questionable. They
are a middling unit this season, allowing an average of 218.5 passing yards
per game (21st in the league) and 2 passing scores to date. They haven't been
able to turn up the intensity sack-wise, despite Adewale Ogunleye, with only
2 sacks in 2 weeks. DB Mike Green was the 2nd ranked IDP DB last week, with
9 solo tackles, 1 interception and 2 passes defensed.
Minnesota continues to do without TE Jim Kleinsasser (out), and he is considering
season-ending knee surgery. Chicago's injury woes are addressed above.
This game is to be played in the Metrodome, so weather won't be a factor.
With a shortage of manpower in the secondary, the Viking's array of wide receivers
will prove to be too much. Advantage, Vikings.
Green Bay's Passing Attack vs. The Indianapolis
Defense (Great Matchup)
Brett Favre had an off game vs. The Bears last week, slapping down a disappointing
24/42 for 252 yards, 1 TD and 2 interception effort against the Bears in the
home loss. There was good news for fantasy owners who invested a high pick in
Javon Walker, though, to the tune of 11 targets for 7/102/0. Donald Driver saw
10 balls come his way (5/49/0), while Robert Ferguson turned 8 chances into
4/50/1. Right now, Favre ranks 20th on the fantasy QB board, with an average
of 13.3 fantasy points per week over the first 2 games.
Indianapolis' secondary has been wracked by injuries, and it shows in the statistics
and on the field. They are the 30th ranked unit in passing yards allowed per
game (278 on average), and have given up 3 passing scores to date. CB Nick Harper
has been a ballhawk (1 interception per game so far), but it hasn't been enough
to elevate the unit to respectability as a whole.
No wonder: SS Mike Doss is sidelined by a hamstring injury (questionable),
CB Joseph Jefferson has a bad knee (out), and FS Bob Sanders has missed time
with a bad foot (out). CB Donald Strickland is probable to play despite a sore
shoulder. The Colts are paper thin in the secondary right now. Green Bay comes
into the game healthy.
This game is to be played in the RCA Dome, so weather won't be a factor.
Struggling pass defense vs. Brett Favre should equal a lot of fantasy points.
Start your Packers if you've got them.
Philadelphia's Passing Attack vs. The Detroit
Defense (Great Matchup)
It doesn't get much better in fantasy circles than the level at which Donovan
McNabb (#1 fantasy QB so far, with 31.2 fantasy points per week on average)
and Terrell Owens (#1 fantasy WR with 12/147/4, 19.2 fantasy points per game
on average) are currently playing the game. Owens saw 7 balls for 4/79/1 last
week to lead the team in targets. TE L.J. Smith caught the other score (4 targets
for 3/26/1). Todd Pinkston pulled a disappearing act, with only 2 targets and
0/0/0. McNabb isn't forcing the ball to Owens, but it does appear T.O. will
be the focus of this attack every week, with other players getting chances as
fate and circumstances dictate.
Detroit is winning games, but they are giving away a lot of real-estate while
they are doing so, averaging 244 passing yards allowed per game (27th in the
NFL). The team gave up 23/34 for 313 yards, 2 TDs and 1 interception to David
Carr last week, so they are hardly on a hot streak.
Top CB Dre' Bly missed the game last week with a sprained knee (questionable).
CB Andre Goodman also missed the action (hamstring, questionable). Philadelphia's
unit comes into the game in good shape, listing Todd Pinkston (shoulder) as
probable to play.
This game is to be played in Ford Field, so weather won't be a factor.
McNabb and company are on top of their game. They'll be in a hostile environment,
but they still have the edge over the subpar Lions' secondary.
Detroit's Passing Attack vs. The Philadelphia
Defense (Good Matchup)
Joey Harrington is finding that Roy Williams is a reliable target, and threw
to him 7 times last week for 4/73/2 - Williams made his TDs look pretty routine,
even though one was a tough diving catch on the sidelines. He is for real, folks,
and leads all NFL rookies with 142 yards receiving after 2 games. Tai Streets
was unexciting in fantasy terms (4/32/0) but caught every ball that came his
way. Two weeks into the season, Harrington has 4 TDs and only 2 interceptions
to go with 32/51 for 363 yards (13th fantasy QB on the board). Imagine what
he could have done with a 1-2 of Williams and Rogers
Philadelphia's pass D is not stout with regards to passing yards allowed, ranking
31st in the NFL allowing an average of 287.5 passing yards per game (only 1
score to date, though). Daunte Culpepper touched them for 37/47 for 343 yards,
but just 1 TD in the losing effort on Monday night (plus the Eagles grabbed
an interception) To their credit, the Eagles did stymie the Vikes in the redzone
multiple times. CB Sheldon Brown was a top IDP DB last week, with 9 solo tackles,
4 assists, and 1 sack.
Other than Rogers being on IR, the Lions are in good shape health-wise, with
WR Az-Zahir Hakim listed as probable (thigh). Philadelphia's secondary is challenged
by some injuries, but the guys are playing through the pain: CB Roderick Hood
(hamstring, probable) and CB Lito Sheppard (broken thumb, probable).
This game is to be played in Ford Field, so weather won't be a factor.
Harrington and company have a nice opportunity to post some yards against a
suspect Philly secondary this week - just don't expect a ton of TDs and you
won't be disappointed. Advantage, Detroit.
Indianapolis' Passing Attack vs. The Green
Bay Defense (Good Matchup)
Peyton Manning over the first two weeks of the NFL season: 40/62 for 510 yards,
4 TDs and 1 interception (4th fantasy QB in the land, averaging 21.4 fantasy
points per game). Reggie Wayne (12th best fantasy WR, with 8/161/1) and Marvin
Harrison (17th best fantasy WR 17/142/1) are both in the top 20 at their position.
They are consistently productive fantasy players, and should be on your starting
roster if you are lucky enough to have them. Heck, Peyton Manning has taken
6,164 snaps out of a possible 6,229 (99%) since his career started, and has
missed 1 snap due to injury in all that time. The team's top back, Edgerrin
James, is battling a hamstring injury and the team may rely on Manning more
than ever this week. Start 'em if you've got 'em.
Green Bay's pass defense is nothing special, allowing an average of 193.5 passing
yards per game (15th in the NFL to date) and 3 scores so far. Rex Grossman threw
for 10/18 for 132 yards, 1 TD and 1 interception against this group last week.
Peyton Manning is to Rex Grossman as a blow torch is to a Bic lighter.
TE Dallas Clark injured his thigh last week and is probable to play. WR Troy
Walters remains sidelined by a broken arm. Green Bay's secondary is reasonably
healthy, and Mike McKenzie is probably ready to go full speed this week.
This game is to be played in the RCA Dome, so weather won't be a factor.
At home in the RCA Dome, expect Manning and company to rise to the challenge
of Green Bay and have success. Advantage Colts.
Houston's Passing Attack vs. The Kansas
City Defense (Good Matchup)
David Carr charged hard at Detroit, and put up a great fantasy performance
last week with 23/34 for 313 yards, 2 TDs and 1 interception (5/30/0 rushing).
Domanick Davis saw 12 targets (11/95/0) and gained more receiving than rushing
on the afternoon. Andre Johnson was second with 9 targets for 3/86/1 - he needs
to convert more of his chances if he is to become an elite fantasy receiver,
though. After 2 weeks of action, Carr is the 10th best fantasy QB in the land,
averaging 18.2 fantasy points per game.
Kansas City's pass defense gives up a ton of points (5 passing scores in 2
games), while ranking in the middle of the pack, yardage-wise (17th in the NFL
allowing 198 passing yards per game on average). Houston gives up a lot of sacks
still (7 so far, tied for 3rd most in the NFL), but KC hasn't excelled at sacking
the passer so far (tied for 26th in the league with 2 to date). It doesn't help
the Chiefs' sack totals that DE Vonnie Holliday has missed time due to a sore
groin. Eric Warfield was a top IDP DB last week with 5 solo tackles, 2 interceptions,
and 2 passes defensed.
Aside from Holliday's groin, the Chief's secondary went without SS Greg Wesley
last week (hamstring, questionable), and CB William Bartee suffered a shoulder/neck
contusion (probable). Houston comes into the game in decent health, although
Carr is listed as probable (stomach flu) along with WR J.J. Moses (knee).
This game will be played in near-perfect weather (if the forecast is right)
at Arrowhead Stadium - 75F for a high, 48F for a low, with a 20% chance of precipitation.
The Texans are maturing into a strong passing squad, and the Chiefs are soft.
Home field advantage will work against the Texans, but they still have the edge
in this matchup.
Kansas City's Passing Attack vs. The Houston
Defense (Good Matchup)
An iffy Priest Holmes this week means that Trent Green needs to get something
going in the passing phase of the game, something he has not done in the first
two games. 33/66 for 361 yards, 0 TDs and 2 interceptions has landed him at
#31 among all fantasy QBs (average of 8.95 fantasy points per week). His #1
WR, Eddie Kennison, left the game last week with a hamstring injury. Let's review:
the team's All World RB is iffy to play, and the team's best WR is nursing a
bad hamstring. Not ideal for the Chiefs. But you could make a case that it's
not a bad thing for Green owners that he'll be asked to carry the team this
week.
The good news is that Houston has been generous in this phase of the game to
date, allowing 5 passing scores in 2 games. Joey Harrington and Roy Williams
combined to rip the Texans for 2 scores last week (Harrington put up 18/25 for
176 yards, 3 TDs and 1 interception) - the Texans limit passing yardage to less
than 200 per game so far (11th in the NFL allowing 187 per game), but are giving
away too many points. They're sort of the opposite of Philadelphia.
This game will be played in near-perfect weather (if the forecast is right)
at Arrowhead Stadium - 75F for a high, 48F for a low, with a 20% chance of precipitation.
Aside from Kennison (questionable), the Chiefs list WR Samie Parker (hamstring,
questionable) and Tony Gonzalez (foot, probable). TE Kris Wilson remains out
due to his ankle/leg injury. Houston has concerns about SS Eric Browns' sore
knee (out), and CB Jason Simmons tweaked his hamstring last week (probable).
Green and company have a good chance to notch some scores this week against
the Texans. Advantage, Chiefs.
St. Louis' Passing Attack vs. The New Orleans
Defense (Good Matchup)
Marc Bulger threw for a lot of yards (285 yards, 1 TD and 1 interception) last
week, but couldn't rally his team past the upstart Falcons. Torry Holt caught
every ball that came to him (9/121/1) while Isaac Bruce led the team in targets
(13) but not receptions (8/102/0). Bulger is the 14th ranked fantasy QB in the
land right now, averaging 16.95 fantasy points per game (mostly due to his slow
TD pace of 1 per contest).
New Orleans limited first-time starter Ken Dorsey to 18/32 for 205 yards, 0
TDs and 1 interception. That's about what you would expect out of a good first
start in the NFL - the Saints did not dominate the youngster, but they did frustrate
him to start the game before he got on track. Nonetheless, the Saints are a
unit allowing an average of 218 yards per game through the air (20th in the
NFL) but have only surrendered 1 passing score to date. Jay Bellamy was the
#1 fantasy DB last week, with 11 solo tackles, 1 assist, 1 forced fumble and
1 fumble recovery. Not too shabby.
New Orleans' CB Jason Craft missed last week's game due to a sore ankle (questionable).
St. Louis' squad is in good health, listing only Marc Bulger (elbow, probable).
This game is to be played in the Edward D. Jones Dome, so weather won't be
a factor.
At home, the Rams are usually very good and Bulger has a fine tandem of WRs
to challenge the Saints' secondary. A slight edge flows to the home team in
this one.
Seattle's Passing Attack vs. The San Francisco
Defense (Good Matchup)
12/26 for 147 yards, 1 TD and 1 interception is nothing to write home about
in fantasy terms, but at least Matt Hasselbeck found Koren Robinson for a score
(5 targets for 4/66/1). Darrell Jackson got the lion's share of looks (11 for
5/50/0) but converted less than half of them to receptions. All in all, it was
a lackluster outing for a supposedly high-octane attack, but they did have a
gimpy RB and one of the top defensive units in the league across the ball from
them (the Tampa Bay Bucs). Hasselbeck has yet to live up to the high fantasy
hopes many held for him, though, with an average of 12.7 fantasy points per
week in the early going (22nd fantasy QB to date). Not exactly the rocket-ship
of points many had envisioned.
San Francisco limited the Saints' backs to 46 yards rushing last week, but
caved to Aaron Brooks and company to the tune of 25/34 for 279 yards, 3 TDs
and 0 interceptions. They are the 16th-ranked pass defense in the league after
2 games, allowing an average of 194 passing yards per game and 4 scores to date.
Not too great, but not terrible, either.
CB Mike Rumph has a sore groin (questionable) and missed last weeks' game.
The Seahawks list TE Jerramy Stevens (knee, probable).
The forecast for Qwest Field calls for a high of 66F with a low of 52F and
a 40% chance of rain. Seattle's team is used to the soggy Northwest, but if
the rain comes down hard at game-time the field could get a little slick.
The Seahawks have a lot of talent, and this one is in their house. Advantage,
Seattle.
Cincinnati's Passing Attack vs. The Baltimore
Defense (Neutral Matchup)
Carson Palmer has played solidly to begin the 2004 season, landing at #19 on
the fantasy QB board after 2 weeks of play averaging 13.4 fantasy points per
week. He didn't have a good game against the tough Miami D last week, though,
managing 21/38 for only 147 yards, 0 TDs and 1 interception. With so little
yardage an no TDs, none of his receivers were remarkable - Peter Warrick led
the team with 9 targets for 6/51/0, and Chad Johnson saw 6 balls for 3/45/0.
It was a slow day for Bengal receivers.
Not much figures to change this week as the Ravens come to town ranking 12th
in the league allowing 191 passing yards per game and 3 scores over the first
two weeks. They coughed up two scores to the Pittsburgh Steelers last week,
but also garnered 2 interceptions while allowing 248 yards to Tommy Maddox and
Ben Roethlisberger. The Ravens are tied for 8th in the NFL with 6 sacks to date
- they bring pressure when appropriate.
Baltimore's Deion Sanders pulled a hamstring last week and is questionable
to play this week. He is also a menace to draw the dreaded helmet-shedding penalty
at any time. WR Peter Warrick is probable to play despite a sore shin.
The forecast for Paul Brown Stadium calls for a high of 74F and a low of 48F
with a 20% chance of precipitation. If that's not good football weather, we
don't know what is.
The Bengals' O brings decent weapons to the table, and the Ravens bring an
upper-echelon D. Sounds like an even matchup to us.
Cleveland's Passing Attack vs. The New York
Giants' Defense (Neutral Matchup)
With the "Chosen One" Kellen Winslow II, on the shelf for 6-8 weeks
due to a broken leg, and fellow TEs Steve Heiden (knee, doubtful) and Keith
Heinrich (PUP) missing games, the Cleveland TE position is now manned by Aaron
Shea. An area of strength has become an area of weakness. Jeff Garcia has struggled
in the passing phase of the game to start 2004, tossing 23/51 for 251 yards,
1 TD and 3 interceptions all year (24th ranked fantasy QB in fantasy points
per game). Dallas really put a twist on him, limiting him to 8/27 for 71 yards,
0 TDs and 3 interceptions last week. Ouch. Needless to say, nobody on the receiving
corps was worth much in those conditions.
The Giants surprised the Redskins and embarrassed Patrick Ramsey (9/18 for
142 yards, 1 TD and 3 interceptions in relief of Mark Brunell (10/18 for 92
yards, 1 TD and 1 interception)) last week, winning the game 20-14. They still
rank among the worst secondaries in the league, though, allowing an average
of 263 passing yards per game (29th in the NFL) and 6 TDs to date.
The Giants have lost FS Omar Stoutmire (knee) for the season, and CB Frank
Walker (foot, questionable) hasn't been able to play for weeks. Cleveland's
WR corps is healthy, but they are very thin at TE as noted above.
The forecast for Giants stadium calls for a high of 74F and a low of 54F with
a 20% chance of rain - perfect football weather is on tap in the Big Apple.
Two struggling units lock up in this one - sounds even to us.
The New York Giants' Passing Attack vs.
The Cleveland Defense (Neutral Matchup)
Kurt Warner did enough to win the game last week, and threw the ball pretty
efficiently (22/33 for 232 yards, 1 TD and 0 interceptions). Amani Toomer is
his #1 target (11 balls for 6/54/0), but Tim Carter caught the TD (3 targets
for 3/63/1). The unit is on a mini-roll coming into this game vs. Cleveland.
Cleveland stole a bunch of passes from Vinny Testaverde last week (23/35 for
322 yards, 1 TD and 3 interceptions), but the offense couldn't convert the turnovers
to points. This season, the Browns are the 25th ranked pass defense in the league,
allowing an average of 240.5 passing yards per contest, but only 1 passing score
in 2 weeks. The Giants are vulnerable to the sack (7 allowed to date in 2004),
but the Browns lost top sacker Courtney Brown to a foot injury last week, and
are only mediocre in that area even with Brown (tied for 15th in sacks at 4
this season). 2 Browns DBs were top IDP players last week - Daylon McCutcheon
had 7 solo tackles, 1 interception and 2 passes defensed for 7th on the DB board,
and Robert Griffith notched 7 solo tackles, 1 assist, 1 interception and 1 pass
defensed (9th).
Both teams are reasonably healthy, although 3 players are listed as questionable
on Wednesday: CBs Anthony Henry (concussion) and Daylon McCutcheon (finger)
for the Browns, and WR Jamaar Taylor (hamstring) for the Giants.
The forecast for Giants stadium calls for a high of 74F and a low of 54F with
a 20% chance of rain - perfect football weather is on tap in the Big Apple.
The Giants are at home and starting to come together in this phase of the game,
while the Browns are decent but not overwhelming at defending the pass. Sounds
even to us.
Dallas' Passing Attack vs. The Washington
Defense (Neutral Matchup)
If somebody had bet you that Vinny Testaverde would lead the NFL in passing
yardage after 2 weeks of regular season play back in August, you would have
probably taken those odds - and lost. Testaverde has tossed 52/85 for 677 yards,
2 TDs and 3 interceptions in his first 2 games (8th best fantasy QB on the board
as of week 2). The running game just got even more suspect with the news that
Julius Jones is out with a broken shoulder blade, so there isn't any reason
to expect Testaverde to suddenly start throwing a whole lot less. Terry Glenn
led the way last week with 10 targets for 6/90/0, while Keyshawn third was third
in yardage on only 3 targets (2/57/0). TE Jason Witten caught all 6 balls that
came his way for 82 yards. Dallas looks like a pass-oriented team at this point
in the season.
Washington is playing solid pass defense this year, ranking 9th in the NFL
allowing an average of 177 passing yards per game, with only a single score
surrendered in this phase to date. Kurt Warner had a solid game against the
squad last week, though, with 22/33 for 232 yards, 1 TD and 0 interceptions.
It hasn't been easy to score on the Redskins this year, so far.
TE Jason Witten has an injured jaw, but is expected to play anyway. WR Randal
Williams has a sore shoulder (questionable). Washington is in good health in
this phase of the game, with only S Matt Bowen (shoulder, probable) on the initial
injury report.
The forecast for Fed-Ex field calls for a high of 72F with a low of 53F and
a 10% chance of precipitation. Sounds like a great night to play some football
and tailgate.
At home, the Redskins always try to make things tough on the Cowboys. We see
this as an even matchup between two solid squads.
Tennessee's Passing Attack vs. The Jacksonville
Defense (Neutral Matchup)
Tennessee's Steve McNair lost the first duel of the season to Peyton Manning,
throwing for 25/36 for 273 yards, 0 TDs and 1 interception last week (he did
stuff one into the endzone himself, though, and ended up 10th among fantasy
QBs on the strength of the rushing score). Derrick Mason (8/104/0) and Drew
Bennett (7/85/0) both saw 12 balls come their way and are 1-2 right now. The
team is hopeful to add deep threat Tyrone Calico to the mix this week (2 sprained
knees may say otherwise, though).
Jacksonville's defense is stingy this season against the pass, allowing only
1 score so far (198.5 passing yards per game on average, 18th in the NFL). Jake
Plummer eked out 250 yards but 0 scores on the Jags last week - you can't push
them around.
Drew Bennett's sore ribs (questionable), Jake Schifino's hamstring (questionable),
Darrell Hill's hip (questionable) and Calico's sprained knees (questionable)
may limit McNair's options this weekend. The Jags are in good health coming
into this one.
The forecast for the Coliseum in Nashville calls for a high of 77F and a low
of 54F with a 20% chance of rain. It should be a fine day for some football.
The Jaguars are not pushovers, and the Titans have some injury concerns. Home
field advantage levels the field in this one - we can't see a clear edge for
either team before the fact.
Miami's Passing Attack vs. The Pittsburgh
Defense (Tough Matchup)
A.J. Feeley tried to rally the team last week, with 21/39 for 218 yards, 1
TD and 2 interceptions in the game vs. Cincinnati. Chris Chambers started to
live up to the fantasy hopes many had for him, with 7 targets for 5/69/1, and
Randy McMichael showed some spirit on the sidelines while chasing down 6/93/0
(9 targets). The team desperately needs the passing game, because the running
backs have averaged 2.3 yards per carry so far in regular season (that's dead
last in the NFL).
10/18 for 98 yards, 0 TDs and 0 interceptions was all Kyle Boller could manage
in the game vs. Pittsburgh last week, speaking of the Ravens. Pittsburgh is
the 13th ranked secondary so far in 2004, allowing only 192 yards per game on
average, with 2 scores surrendered to date. They've been up and down, coughing
up 305 passing yards to Rich Gannon in week 1 (2 TDs, 2 interceptions). Feeley
is probably closer to the Boller end of the scale than the Gannon end, though.
Miami has no significant new injuries this week, while the Steelers saw CB's
Chidi Iwuoma (abdominal strain, not listed) and Chad Scott (groin, questionable)
go out with injuries last week. Mike Logan (hamstring, questionable).
The forecast for Pro Player Stadium calls for a high of 88F and a low of 74F
with a 30% chance of rain. If the precipitation comes down hard at game-time,
the field and ball could get slick and hard to handle.
Feeley will try to spark the Dolphins, while the Steelers have been on a roller-coaster
in this phase of the game. This looks like advantage to Pittsburgh here.
New Orleans' Passing Attack vs. The St.
Louis Defense (Tough Matchup)
With Deuce McAllister out of the game after only 3 carries, the burden fell
squarely on Aaron Brooks' shoulders. He responded, with 25/34 for 279 yards,
3 TDs and 0 interceptions. Donte' Stallworth finally got revved up, with 12
targets for 9/113/1, while Joe Horn saw 9 balls (8/94/1). Jerome Pathon snagged
the other TD. Two weeks into the season, Brooks is the #5 fantasy QB in the
land, averaging 21.1 fantasy points per game - and now, McAllister is out for
a few weeks. New Orleans has had success against the Rams - Aaron Brooks has
had 3 straight 3+ TD games vs. The Rams, and has thrown 10 TDs vs. 3 interceptions
against them in that stretch. The TEs both disappeared last week - Ernie Conwell
saw 2 balls, Boo Williams none.
St. Louis was stunned by Atlanta 34-17 last week, but the secondary did their
job by and large, limiting Vick and company to 14/19 for 179 yards, 1 TD and
0 interceptions. The Rams are 6th after 2 weeks of play, holding opponents to
165.5 passing yards on average and allowing only 1 passing score. Of course,
we're talking Arizona and Atlanta here, neither of which is noted for an outstanding
aerial assault as of yet in 2004.
New Orleans' unit lists Joe Horn (knee, questionable), while the Rams are rather
thin, thanks to CB Travis Fisher (forearm, out), DeJuan Groce (knee, questionable),
and Kevin Garrett (foot, probable) being bitten by the injury bug.
This game is to be played in the Edward D. Jones Dome, so weather won't be
a factor.
At home, the Rams will prove a tough challenge for a Saints team that needs
to rely on the pass more than ever this week.
Arizona's Passing Attack vs. The Atlanta
Defense (Tough Matchup)
Arizona's offensive line is the big problem for Josh McCown right now. He has
been sacked 7 times in 2 weeks - tied for 3rd most sacks allowed to date in
2004 - and has been pressured on a lot of other plays. The guy just isn't getting
enough time in the pocket on a consistent basis. His average of 8.75 fantasy
points per week over the first 2 weeks puts him at the bottom of the QB board
- that's how bad the situation is, folks. His top receiver, Larry Fitzgerald,
is #56 on the WR board after 2 weeks, with 5/36/0 to his credit in his most
recent game (he saw 12 balls, but could only convert less than half for short-gainers).
Until the O-line starts acting more like a wall and less like a speed-bump,
you should probably look for your fantasy starters elsewhere.
Atlanta's pass defense is pretty darn soft, allowing an average of 258 yards
per game over the first two weeks, with 3 scores surrendered to date. 24/31
for 285 yards, 1 TD and 1 interception is what Marc Bulger and company hung
on the secondary last week. Atlanta is getting a lot of pressure on the opposing
passer, though, with 8 sacks to their credit over 2 games. DE Patrick Kerney
has played well (2 sacks last week vs. The Rams), and is gunning for another
one this week vs. The weak Arizona offensive line.
WR Anquan Boldin (knee) and DB DeAngelo Hall (hip) are sidelined for their
respective squads due to injury, but that's been true in both preceding weeks,
too.
This game is to be played in the Georgia Dome, so weather won't be a factor.
Atlanta loves to put pressure on the passer, and the Arizona line leaks rushers
faster than water through a sieve. Advantage, Atlanta.
Baltimore's Passing Attack vs. The Cincinnati
Defense (Tough Matchup)
One of the only fantasy QBs playing with less results than Kyle Boller so far
in 2004 is Mark Brunell of Washington (and he was injured for half of the last
game). Boller ranks #32 among all fantasy QBs after 2 weeks, averaging 8.75
fantasy points per outing, and he lost his best receiver and favorite target
TE Todd Heap for 2-4 weeks to an ankle sprain last Sunday. The team's most experienced
WR, Travis Taylor, is battling a sore groin. Run, don't walk, away from considering
Boller as a part of your lineup. You can surely do better than 10/18 for 98
yards, 0 TDs and 0 interceptions with 8/34/0 rushing anyway (Boller's stats
last week). He did light up the Bengals last season (but Heap and Taylor were
in the game).
Cincinnati's pass defense is right in the middle of the NFL pack after two
weeks, allowing an average of 210 passing yards per game (19th in the NFL) and
3 scores to date. 21/39 for 218 yards, 1 TD and 2 interceptions was what A.J.
Feeley managed against them last week - right around their average.
Heap is listed as doubtful to play, as is Taylor. Cincinnati did without FS
Kim Herring last week (foot, out this week) and also missed CB Greg Brooks (hamstring,
not listed on Wednesday). S Rogers Beckett is questionable due to a concussion,
while CB Terrell Roberts is nursing a sore groin (probable).
The forecast for Paul Brown Stadium calls for a high of 74F and a low of 48F
with a 20% chance of precipitation. If that's not good football weather, we
don't know what is.
Cincinnati plays average pass defense, while the Ravens have no pass offense
to speak of, and they are missing their best weapon this week. Advantage, Cincinnati.
Jacksonville's Passing Attack vs. The Tennessee
Defense (Tough Matchup)
Byron Leftwich is not a fantasy gem in the early going, folks. He is the 28th
ranked fantasy QB after 2 weeks, averaging 10.65 fantasy points per game so
far (26/52 for 267 yards, 2 TDs and 2 interceptions in 2 games - a lot of QBs
throw for that in one game) Jimmy Smith, with 7/152/0 out of the gates, is the
lone fantasy-worthy starter out of this unit (30th-ranked fantasy WR over 2
weeks).
This week, the Jaguars visit division-rival Tennessee, who are playing subpar
pass defense this year (22nd in the NFL, allowing an average of 221 yards and
3 scores to date). Of course, they did just host 2003 MVP Peyton Manning last
week (24/33 for 254 yards, 2 TDs and 1 interception), so those stats are affected
by Manning and company's excellence. Byron Leftwich is no Peyton Manning, though.
Tennessee's CB Samari Rolle injured his hamstring last week - the injury was
characterized as "mild" at the time, but the Titans ignore NFL rules
and list practically all injuries as either "out" or "questionable"
- in this case, Rolle isn't listed. Jacksonville's TE Kyle Brady is healing
from a finger surgery and is doubtful this week.
The forecast for the Coliseum in Nashville calls for a high of 77F and a low
of 54F with a 20% chance of rain. It should be a fine day for some football.
Leftwich and his crew will have their hands full on Sunday. The Titans bring
more to the table than the Jags, and the home-team has the edge.
Oakland's Passing Attack vs. The Tampa Bay
Defense (Tough Matchup)
Rich Gannon is back in the top ten among fantasy QBs, with an average of 19.1
fantasy points per week to his credit. 19/27 for 209 yards, 1 TD and 0 interceptions
was his tally last week, 14th among fantasy QBs in fantasy points. He targeted
Ronald Curry 6 times (5/89/1) and also aimed at TE Doug Jolley and WR Jerry
Porter 4 times each (4/31/0 and 3/45/0 respectively). It's just been two games,
but Gannon looks like he has returned to a consistently productive form out
of the gates in 2004.
Matt Hasselbeck completed 12/26 for 147 yards, 1 TD and 1 interception against
this secondary last week, and they average even less yards allowed so far this
season (125.5 per game, 2nd in the NFL). It is just hard to move or score on
the Bucs in this phase (1 TD allowed to date in 2004).
Both teams have decent health at this point in the season, although TE Roland
Williams is dinged up (knee, questionable).
The forecast for Network Associates Coliseum in Oakland calls for a high of
72F and a low of 56F with a 0% chance of rain. That's football weather, no doubt.
Anytime you play Tampa it's tough to move the ball. Home field advantage will
help, but the Bucs will still have an edge in this rematch of the '03 Super
Bowl.
San Francisco's Passing Attack vs. The Seattle
Defense (Tough Matchup)
Coach Erickson indicated on Monday that Tim Rattay's separated shoulder is
still causing him a lot of problems, and that Ken Dorsey will start for the
49ers for the second week while Rattay heals. Dorsey locked onto Curtis Conway
last week, tossing him 14 passes (8/112/0), so Conway might be a solid waiver-wire
move based on this news. Brandon Lloyd only saw 3 passes come his way (1/7/0)
and is a huge fantasy disappointment in the early weeks of 2004. Eric Johnson
was the second-most targeted receiver last week, with 6 for 5/60/0. Dorsey ended
the day the 29th ranked fantasy QB on the board, with 18/32 for 205 yards, 0
TDs and 1 interception - right now, he's nothing to write home about in fantasy
terms.
Seattle allowed 25/39 for 209 yards, 0 TDs and 2 interceptions to the Buccaneers'
tandem last week. They are the 14th ranked secondary in the NFL so far this
year, allowing an average of 193 passing yards per game to date, with only 1
passing score allowed so far. They look like a tough unit that has some nice
young talent developing into good players. For example, CB Marcus Trufant was
a fantasy force at DB, racking up 7 solo tackles, 1 assist, 1 interception (with
another nullified by penalty) and 1 pass defensed. Rookie S Michael Boulware
has an interception in both of his first 2 games.
Aside from Rattay's shoulder (questionable), the 49ers list WR Cedrick Wilson
(hamstring, questionable). Seattle is in good shape among their secondary personnel.
The forecast for Qwest Field calls for a high of 66F with a low of 52F and
a 40% chance of rain. Seattle's team is used to the soggy Northwest, but if
the rain comes down hard at game-time the field could get a little slick.
Dorsey is a young QB learning on the job, while the Seahawks bring a talented
and experienced (for the most part) secondary to the table. Advantage, Seattle.
Pittsburgh's Passing Attack vs. The Miami
Defense (Bad Matchup)
The Steelers' prize rookie QB gets a baptism by fire in his first NFL start,
running into the defiant Dolphins' defense at home. Roethlisberger was adequate
in relief of the injured Tommy Maddox last week, throwing 12/20 for 176 yards,
2 TDs and 2 interceptions. Hines Ward was stellar with 9 targets for 6/151/1
(the #1 fantasy WR last week), and he is the #2 fantasy WR on the season with
13 for 250 yards and 1 TD so far (1/4 of the way to a 1,000 yard season after
2 games? On pace for 2,000? Nice). Randle-El caught the other TD (6 targets
for 4/40/1) and it is worth noting that Antwaan Randle-El was with the team
during all Summer and training camp, working with Roethlisberger on learning
the new offense while Plaxico Burress engaged in his sulk/holdout. Keep an eye
on who looks more in synch with Roethlisberger this week.
Miami is tied for 5th in the NFL with 7 sacks to date, and the Steelers have
allowed 6 sacks to date, so Roethlisberger could be in for a long day on Sunday.
Miami is first in the NFL after 2 games, surrendering an average of 88.5 passing
yards per game and only 1 passing score so far. Carson Palmer put up 147 yards
and 0 TDs with 1 interception against this group last week.
Tommy Maddox is out with an severe elbow injury. Miami CB's Patrick Surtain
(groin, questionable) and Reggie Howard (hamstring, questionable) were both
out of the game last week.
The forecast for Pro Player Stadium calls for a high of 88F and a low of 74F
with a 30% chance of rain. If the precipitation comes down hard at game-time,
the field and ball could get slick and hard to handle.
This is a very tough first-start matchup for Roethlisberger. A huge edge flows
to the home-team Dolphins.
San Diego's Passing Attack vs. The Denver
Defense (Bad Matchup)
Drew Brees looked like the 2003 version of himself at first last week. Then,
he came roaring back to life, only to sustain a concussion serious enough to
knock him out of the game (and cause memory loss after the fact). Keep an eye
on his status as the game approaches, as post-concussion syndrome is notoriously
fickle (Brees was probable to play on Wednesday). Another worrisome development
for the Chargers is that their impressive rookie TE Antonio Gates has a sprained
foot and wasn't very effective in week 2. What looked like a ship righting itself
in week 1 is suddenly listing again. Gates saw 10 targets last week, but only
handled 4/39/0. Reche Caldwell surged with 4/67/1 on 6 targets, his second week
catching 4 balls and a TD, and could form a decent tandem with week 1 hero Eric
Parker.
Denver is playing the pass tough in 2004, allowing a paltry 130 passing yards
per game on average (3rd in the NFL to date), and but 1 score so far. Last week,
8/16 for 120 yards, 1 TD and 0 interceptions was the mark that Byron Leftwich
tallied. This is one tough pass D, folks.
San Diego says Gates is questionable to play. Denver went without CB Lenny
Walls last week (shoulder, doubtful this week), and lists CBs Roc Alexander
(finger), Champ Bailey (calf) and Willie Middlebrooks (shoulder) as probable
to play.
The forecast for Mile High Stadium calls for a high of 72F and a low of 47F
with a 30% chance of showers. Heavy precipitation at game time could have an
effect.
An erratic passing team with injury issues visits a top defense in one of the
best home-fields in the NFL. Advantage, Denver.
Tampa Bay's Passing Attack vs. The Oakland
Defense (Bad Matchup)
Despite Brad Johnson's short lived play last week (4/7 for 34 yards 0 TD and
1 interception), Chris Simms is heading back to the bench for week 3. How long
Johnson stays under center will depend on what he can get going early in the
game, however, as last week's quick hook showed. There isn't much else to say
about this attack - the team is foundering without much firepower in the receiving
corps. Rookie Michael Clayton (who leads all rookie WRs with 13 receptions to
date) saw 9 balls come his way for 6/61/0, and Tim Brown turned 9 chances into
7/49/0, but those aren't the kind of numbers that win fantasy football championships.
Buffalo threw for 14/25 for 222 yards, 1 TD and 1 interception last week against
the Raiders. As a team, the unit is playing solid pass defense this season,
ranking 5th in the NFL averaging 153 passing yards per game so far, with only
the 1 TD allowed (a fluky deflection into Eric Moulds' hands). CB Charles Woodson
has looked very stout despite the extended holdout, and is shutting down his
assigned players with tight coverage on a regular basis.
Tampa is still without WRs Joey Galloway (groin, out) and Joe Jurevicius (PUP),
and also lists TE Dave Moore (elbow, probable). Oakland's secondary is in reasonably
good health at this point, with no injuries to report.
The forecast for Network Associates Coliseum in Oakland calls for a high of
72F and a low of 56F with a 0% chance of rain. That's football weather, no doubt.
A struggling, visiting offense meets a stout pass defense in one of the most
hostile venues in the NFL for visitors. Sounds like a mismatch in favor of the
defense to us.
Washington's Passing Attack vs. The Dallas
Defense (Bad Matchup)
Patrick Ramsey seems to have an opportunity to show coach Gibbs what he can
do on Monday night, as Mark Brunell is struggling with his hamstring injury.
Coach Gibbs commented that Brunell would have to look "real good in practice"
to change his mind - but Brunell may not practice. Gibbs' early guess is that
Ramsey is the starter for MNF. In two seasons with the Spurrier regime, Ramsey
passed for 296/564 for 3705 yards, 23 TDs and 17 interceptions, so he's able
to do good things when he's in rhythm. Only time will tell if a full week of
practice with the first team will get Ramsey in rhythm, though - he's looked
a little lost in the new offense in his chances, and was horrible in relief
of Brunell last week (9/18 for 142 yards, 1 TD and 3 interceptions).
Dallas' proud secondary was bloodied by Daunte Culpepper and his 17/23 for
242 yards, 5 TD and 0 interception performance two weeks ago - which was unfortunate
for Jeff Garcia and company, who got whipped up on as Dallas' DBs reasserted
themselves this past week (8/27 for 71 yards, 0 TDs and 3 interceptions). The
upshot is that the Cowboys are back in the top ten among secondaries, allowing
an average of 172.5 passing yards per game (8th in the NFL).
Aside from Brunell's sore hamstring (questionable) and Laveranues Coles' ongoing
struggle with an injured toe (not listed), the Redskins are in good shape. Dallas'
secondary is in good shape, health-wise.
The forecast for Fed-Ex field calls for a high of 72F with a low of 53F and
a 10% chance of precipitation. Sounds like a great night to play some football
and tailgate.
Ramsey has struggled in the new system, and Dallas is back to playing very
tough pass D after a rocky start - this looks like a bad matchup for the young
QB.
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