Passing Matchups - Week 6
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Posted 10/14 by Mark Wimer and Joe Bryant, Exclusive to Footballguys.com
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Hi Folks,
Here's our look at the Passing Matchups for this week.
PLEASE NOTE: This does NOT replace the Cheatsheet ranking. The Cheatsheet rankings
are the final say on where we see a player for that week. The Matchup Breakdowns
are simply one more tool in the box when it comes to helping choose your lineup.
Also note, just because a player has a "bad" matchup, it does NOT mean
he's not a starter in your league. If Daunte Culpepper is playing the toughest
pass defense in the league, that just means he's got a tough matchup that week.
He's also your starter unless you're loaded at QB. In the same way, if the worst
QB on your roster has a "great" matchup that week, it doesn't necessarily
mean he's your starter. It means we think he'll fare better than normal that week.
Bottom line is that the cheatsheets are the final say.
Let's jump to it.
Joe
Bye Weeks
Indianapolis: Peyton Manning / Marvin Harrison / Reggie Wayne / Brandon Stokley
New York Giants: Kurt Warner / Amani Toomer / Jeremy Shockey
Arizona: Josh McCown / Larry Fitzgerald
Baltimore: Todd Heap
Detroit's Passing Attack vs. The Green Bay
Defense (Great Matchup)
Joey Harrington is rounding into form as an NFL starter, hitting 16/24 for
146 yards, 1 TD and 0 interceptions against the tough Falcons last week. He's
the 14th fantasy QB in the land, with 69/113 for 708 yards, 7 TDs and 2 interceptions
so far in 2004 - over half of the scores have gone to Roy Williams, 20/295/4,
though last week it was Az-Zahir Hakim's turn to score (3/64/1 vs. Atlanta).
Williams is a must-start at this stage of the season but watch very closely
this week to see how his injured ankle comes along.
Green Bay's defense is getting absolutely shelled, and has surrendered 12 passing
TDs to date (2nd-most in the NFL) while averaging 234 yards allowed per game.
Over the last 4 weeks, they've averaged 2.5 passing TDs allowed per game - this
group is more like a convention of matadors than a unit of defensive backs right
now.
Detroit lists WR Roy Williams as questionable due to his sore ankle/knee. Green
Bay CB Michael Hawthorne is probable, but recovering from a concussion.
This game will be played indoors at Ford Field, so weather is not a factor.
Detroit should feast on the struggling Packers' DBs.
New York Jets' Passing Attack vs. The San
Francisco Defense (Great Matchup)
Chad Pennington hasn't needed to pass much because Curtis Martin is a one-man
wrecking crew right now. That's been bad news for owners of Santana Moss and
Justin McCareins over the first quarter of the season - both are essentially
fantasy busts right now. Moss has 11/231/0 over 4 games, while McCareins is
a nonentity with 10/121/0 to his credit. There is a dearth of fantasy points
at the WR position on this team, folks.
San Francisco is not strong in this phase of the game, allowing an average
of 209.6 passing yards per game (16th in the NFL) and a whopping 10 TDs so far.
In the past 4 weeks they've been even worse, allowing 229 passing yards per
game and an average of 2.3 passing TDs each Sunday. Ouch. Josh McCown managed
19/34 for 231 yards, 3 scores and 1 interception against the banged-up 49ers
last week (those were his first passing scores all year long). It's not hard
to put the ball in the endzone on these guys.
CB Mike Rumph is out with a broken forearm, and the 49ers also list CB Jimmy
Williams (concussion, probable). WR Santana Moss has a sore hamstring (questionable).
The forecast for New York calls for a high of 62F and a low of 45F, with a
10% chance of precipitation - great football weather, in other words.
The Jets have an excellent opportunity to awaken their slumbering WRs this
week - but will it happen? Chad Pennington has a great matchup against this
defense though, no matter who he throws to. Stay tuned.
Houston's Passing Attack vs. The Tennessee
Defense (Great Matchup)
David Carr continues to climb up the overall fantasy QB list, and is currently
the 6th best fantasy QB for the 2004 season, with 96/150 for 1375 yards, 7 TDs
and 4 interceptions to his credit. Andre Johnson is a fantasy star, with 29/525/4
to date, including a great 12/170/2 performance last week. He has 6 catches
of 25+ yards this year, 2nd most in the NFL. Carr threw for 372 yards, 3 TDs
and 0 picks last week. These guys are white-hot right now - start 'em if you've
got 'em.
Tennessee fields a subpar pass defense that currently ranks 20th in the NFL
allowing an average of 231.8 yards per game (with 10 passing scores given away
to date). They average 240 yards allowed and 2.3 passing scores given up over
the past 4 weeks - this is just not a good pass D. Brett Favre put up 338 yards,
2 TDs and 3 interceptions against them last week, and his backup tossed for
another 64 yards and a score to boot. The Titans are very soft in this phase
of the game. Lamont Thompson was the 3rd ranked IDP DB last week, with 6 solo
tackles, 1 assist, 2 interceptions, 1 forced fumble and 2 passes defensed.
Houston says Carr is probable to play despite a sore ankle, as is WR Andre
Johnson (ankle). Tennessee is down S Lance Schulters (foot, out); and lists
CB Samari Rolle as questionable with sore ribs.
The forecast for the Coliseum calls for a high of 69F and a low of 56F with
a 0% chance for precipitation - perfect football weather, in other words.
The Texans are an attack on the rise, while the Titans are in retreat - advantage,
Houston.
Tennessee's Passing Attack vs. The Houston
Defense (Great Matchup)
Tennessee got Steve McNair back last week, and blew out the Packers on Monday
Night Football. McNair threw 15/26 for 206 yards, 2 TDs and 0 interceptions
(Drew Bennett added another TD on a trick play). Derrick Mason and Eddie Berlin
both caught scores in the rout - Mason had 6 balls come his way (4/63/1). Bennett
was not very productive in the receiving department, considering he saw the
most targets that night (8 for 2/47/0).
Houston was slashed for 36/50 for 396 yards, 5 TDs and 0 interceptions by Daunte
Culpepper last week - they are a unit in disarray at the moment. The team averages
236.8 passing yards allowed per game (26th in the NFL) and have given away a
league-worst 13 passing TDs (they average 2.8 passing TDs allowed per game over
the last 4 weeks). The bottom line here is that Houston stinks in pass defense.
Jason Simmons was a top IDP DB last week, with 9 solo tackles, 3 assists, and
1 pass defensed.
Tennessee is doing without Tyrone Calico (knee, out - scheduled for surgery
and may need his ACL repaired), and lists TE Erron Kinney as out, too (calf).
WR Derrick Mason is questionable due to his sore ankle. SS Eric Brown (knee)
and Glenn Earl (hip) are both probable.
The forecast for the Coliseum calls for a high of 69F and a low of 56F with
a 0% chance for precipitation - perfect football weather, in other words.
Houston is easy to pass the ball against, and they are generous with the scores,
too. Advantage, Tennessee.
Atlanta's Passing Attack vs. The San Diego
Defense (Good Matchup)
Michael Vick just isn't doing well in the west coast offense in Atlanta. He
is 24th among fantasy QBs this season so far, with 65/108 for 801 yards, 2 TDs
and 3 interceptions to his credit passing (39/251/0 rushing) - there just isn't
much going on in this phase of the game right now. 18/29 for 196 yards, 0 TDs
and 1 interception was his stat line against the Lions last week - Peerless
Price had 7 targets for 5/84/0, but nobody else got above 50 yards receiving
that day. It's been pretty lean for Falcons owners this season, folks. The OL
is not protecting Vick well, allowing 17 sacks (2nd-most in the NFL).
36/54 for 357 yards, 1 TD and 2 interceptions was the stat line for Byron Leftwich
against the Chargers last week. The Chargers are allowing a lot of yards each
week - an average of 276.2, which is 30th in the NFL. They have coughed up 7
scores, too. In the last 4 weeks, the average is 289 yards and 1.8 TDs per game
- pretty generous with the fantasy points.
Atlanta says that TE Eric Beverly is out (shoulder). S Terrence Kiel has sore
ribs (probable).
This game is being played at the Georgia Dome, so weather won't be a factor.
The Falcons are struggling to pass the ball effectively, but San Diego is soft
against the pass making this a good matchup.
New Orleans' Passing Attack vs. The Minnesota
Defense (Good Matchup)
Aaron Brooks continues his erratic fantasy production, managing a mere 11/23
for 106 yards passing last week (his 2 TDs made it into a respectable fantasy
outing, but not outstanding). Joe Horn (7 targets for 4/40/1) and Boo Williams
(6 targets for 2/24/1) were the recipients of the TD passes. Brooks is now the
9th ranked fantasy QB this season, with 102/175 for 1166 yards, 7 TDs and 2
interceptions (19/75/0 rushing) - he averages 18.48 fantasy points per game.
Minnesota's pass D is pretty weak, allowing a league-worst average of 293.8
passing yards per game, with 6 TDs given away to date. Over the last 4 weeks,
they average 274 passing yards and 1.7 TDs allowed per game - not good. David
Carr tore them up for 27/43 for 372 yards, 3 TDs and 0 interceptions last week.
New Orleans lists WR Talman Gardner (ankle) as questionable, while S Brian
Russell (illness, probable) is on the injury report for Minnesota.
This game is to be played in the Superdome, so weather won't be an issue.
Brooks has good receivers to throw to, and is facing a weak defense. This looks
like a good week to own Saints but be prepared to live with the ups and downs
of Brooks. Advantage, New Orleans.
San Francisco's Passing Attack vs. The New
York Jets' Defense (Good Matchup)
Tim Rattay clearly runs the 49ers offense run better than Ken Dorsey. When
sorted by points per game, Rattay is the 4th ranked fantasy QB in the land,
averaging 22.7 fantasy points per outing to date. He threw for 417 yards and
2 scores last week (0 interceptions) against a fairly stout Arizona squad. It's
all good in San Francisco in this phase of the game. TE Eric Johnson was a fantasy
monster last week, with 16 targets for 13/162/1, despite playing with a painful
rib injury. Brandon Lloyd was second with 11 targets, and paid back his long-suffering
owners (those that kept him on the roster) with 5/56/1 and a 2pt conversion
catch. One area of concern is the pass-blocking, though - the 49ers have allowed
16 sacks to date, and that's no way to keep your QBs healthy.
The New York Jets sport a mediocre secondary, averaging 205.5 passing yards
allowed per game. They've given up 5 scores to date. They have stayed on that
pace in the last 4 weeks, with an average of 195 passing yards per week allowed,
and 1.0 TDs per week. Drew Bledsoe touched them for 16/29 for 197 yards, 2 TDs
and 1 interception last week.
The Jets are down CB Derrick Strait (foot, out) and S Rashad Washington (foot,
out), while the 49ers list TE Eric Johnson (ribs, questionable).
The forecast for New York calls for a high of 62F and a low of 45F, with a
10% chance of precipitation - great football weather, in other words.
The 49ers can move the ball in this phase, while the Jets aren't particularly
good at stopping the pass. Advantage, San Francisco.
Pittsburgh's Passing Attack vs. The Dallas
Defense (Good Matchup)
Ben Roethlisberger has been great out of the gates, and he's now in the top
20 among fantasy QBs in fantasy points per game (averaging 15.25 per contest,
18th in the NFL). He isn't in an offense that produces huge yardage numbers,
but he has shown a nose for the endzone that bodes well for continuing to put
up solid fantasy points each week - and he's not making a lot of typical rookie
mistakes. Plaxico Burress has returned to the top of his game, catching 6/136/1
last week on 8 chances, and Hines Ward continues to be sure-handed (6 targets
for 6/61/0).
Dallas' pass D is nothing special this year, allowing an average if 211.5 yards
per game (17th in the NFL) and 8 scores so far. The picture is a little better
over the past 3 weeks, with the average allowed falling to 189 yards allowed
and an average of 1.0 TDs per game - but they are not shutting anybody down.
The Giants put up 18/33 for 217 yards, 1 TD and 0 interceptions against the
Cowboys last week - right on pace for this unit. They are a mediocre bunch in
2004.
Pittsburgh lists QB Maddox (out, elbow).
The forecast for Texas Stadium calls for a high of 85F and a low of 65F with
0% chance of precipitation. Sounds like a nice weekend is on tap down in Texas.
Pittsburgh is on a roll right now, while Dallas' secondary isn't playing at
the top of their game. Even in Dallas' house, we still call this a good matchup
for Roethlisberger and company.
Green Bay's Passing Attack vs. The Detroit
Defense (Good Matchup)
Green Bay's defense is reeling, allowing scoring galore. This is a good thing
for fantasy owners of Brett Favre and his receivers, as the Packers are throwing
the ball like mad trying to claw their way back into games this season - they
have been behind on the scoreboard a lot this season. 24/44 for 338 yards, 2
TDs and 3 interceptions was the total for Favre last week when the dust settled.
Javon Walker continued his standout season with 15 targets for 8/159/1 (he has
2 150+ yard games in the past 3 games), while Donald Driver contributed 12 for
10/150/0. Look for more of the same until the Packer's D fixes it's problems
(that isn't likely any time soon).
Detroit's defense stymied Michael Vick last week, limiting him to 18/29 for
196 yards, 0 TDs and 1 interception. They've been keeping people out of the
endzone all season long, with only 4 passing scores surrendered to date, although
they surrender a lot of real-estate generally speaking (254 yards per game on
average). Over the last 4 weeks the average has been 267 yards and 1.3 TDs per
game, so they re not improving their performance as the season goes along. Detroit
does have 16 sacks, among the most in the league, but Green Bay has only given
up 3 sacks this year.
Detroit lists CBs Dre Bly (knee, questionable) and Andre Goodman (hamstring,
doubtful); Green Bay's WRs are dinged with Robert Ferguson (knee) and Javon
Walker (hand) are probable to play.
This game will be played indoors at Ford Field, so weather is not a factor.
Green Bay needs to throw the ball a lot lately, and the Lions give up generous
amounts of yardage and points in this phase of the game. Advantage, Green Bay.
Denver's Passing Attack vs. The Oakland
Defense (Good Matchup)
Denver outlasted the Panthers last week, and Jake Plummer contributed by throwing
17/29 for 226 yards, 2 TDs and 2 interceptions. He's just outside the top 10
among fantasy QBs this season, with 96/164 for 1138 yards, 7 TDs and 4 interceptions
(24/84/0 rushing) - Plummer is more on than off this season. Rod Smith (6 targets
for 4/60/0) and Ashley Lelie (5 for 2/52/1) were his most thrown to receivers
last week (Lelie has had 2 of his 3 career 100+ yard games against the Raiders
- he has their number) - TE Jeb Putzier disappeared, with 0 targets, while Dwayne
Carswell (5 for 4/45/0) got most of the balls aimed at TEs. Denver has been
giving Plummer excellent pass protection this season and is tied for 1st in
the NFL with only 3 sacks surrendered to date.
Oakland's defense isn't great in this phase, allowing an average of 203.8 passing
yards per game and 7 TDs to date. Over the last 4 weeks, they've surrendered
and average of 221 passing yards per game, and 1.8 TDs per contest. Peyton Manning
lit them up for 16/26 for 198 yards, 3 TDs and 1 interception last week. Like
we said, they aren't great at pass defense in Oakland this year.
Both teams are in good shape health-wise.
The forecast for Network Associates Coliseum calls for a high of 68F and a
low of 56F with a 0% chance for rain. Weather shouldn't be a factor in this
game.
Plummer has some respectable weapons at his disposal, and the Raiders aren't
a shutdown type pass defense. Advantage, Denver.
Minnesota's Passing Attack vs. The New Orleans
Defense (Good Matchup)
36/50 for 396 yards, 5 TDs and 0 interceptions was Daunte Culpepper's stat
line last week. 2 of his receivers were in the top 5 among fantasy WRs, with
9/150/2 to the credit of Marcus Robinson, and 5/90/2 to the credit of Randy
Moss. Dominant. Awesome. Choose your favorite adjective - and start them if
you've got them.
New Orleans has a subpar secondary, that allows an average of 232.2 passing
yards per game (only 4 scores so far in 2004, though), ranking 21st in the NFL.
Over the last 4 weeks, they've been right on that pace, allowing 229 passing
yards and .8 TDs per game - not great, but not terrible, either. The Buc's duo
managed 21/27 for 262 yards, 1 TD and 0 interceptions - so the Saints enter
this game slightly off pace.
Minnesota lists WR Keenan Howry (shoulder, out) and TE Jermaine Wiggins (hand,
questionable). CB Mike McKenzie (hamstring) is questionable to play.
This game is to be played in the Superdome, so weather won't be an issue.
Minnesota is playing at an elite level right now, while the Saints are mediocre.
Advantage, Minnesota.
New England's Passing Attack vs. The Seattle
Defense (Good Matchup)
New England's Tom Brady has been very solid this season. 65/113 for 926 yards,
9 TDs and 4 interceptions places him at 7th among all fantasy QBs, averaging
19.68 fantasy points per game. He throws it all over the field, and last week
he hit 6 different receivers, but showed a strong preference for David Givens,
throwing 10 balls to Givens (4/33/1). Brady had many of his owners panicking
this weekend however. Even though he posted 2 TDs, he only threw for 76 yards.
We think he'll be fine though. Daniel Graham continued to star as the scoring
TE, with 2 targets (1/1/1).
Seattle melted down in the final minutes last week, allowing a total of 325
yards, 3 TDs and 3 interceptions to Marc Bulger (who led the Rams to a come-from-behind
OT victory). They are the 15th ranked pass D in the land to date, allowing an
average of 207.5 yards per game, with 4 scores surrendered. The team fielded
2 top ten IDP DBs last week, with Marcus Trufant checking in at 4th (8 solo
tackles, 1 interception and 3 passes defensed) and Ken Lucas at 6th (5 solo
tackles, 2 interceptions, and 2 passes defensed).
New England has been doing without Deion Branch (knee, doubtful) and Troy Brown
(shoulder, questionable). And QBs Tom Brady (shoulder) and Jim Miller (shoulder)
are probable to play. S Ken Hamlin (toe, probable) is listed for Seattle.
The forecast for Gillette Stadium calls for a beautiful day, with 60F for a
high and 40F for a low, with a 0% chance for rain.
Seattle is reeling in this phase of the game, while Tom Brady gets back to
his consistently productive self - advantage, New England.
Tampa Bay's Passing Attack vs. The St. Louis
Defense (Good Matchup)
Tampa is an offense in flux. The starter last week, Chris Simms, left the game
prematurely due to a sprained left shoulder (his throwing-arm shoulder, doubtful),
and Brian Griese came into the game in relief. Griese played very well, the
team won their first game, and now Griese is the starter. However, Griese has
shown flashes of brilliance before in his career, only to follow them up with
disappointing outings. Our take on this situation is to be a little cautious
with Buccaneer receivers this week, while we see how Griese responds to assuming
the mantle of starting QB. If you do consider a Buc receiver, Charles Lee (6
targets for 4/76/0) and Michael Clayton (5 for 4/61/0) saw the most action in
the passing game last week.
St. Louis was not impressive in this phase of the game last week, allowing
Matt Hasselbeck 20/35 for 216 yards, 2 TDs and 0 interceptions. They are one
of the softer units in the NFL, allowing 225 yards per game on average (19th
in the NFL) and 6 scores to date. Over the last 4 weeks, the average has been
241 passing yards allowed, and 1.5 TDs per game. They give up a lot of real
estate and aren't particularly hard to score on.
Tampa lists Joey Galloway as out (groin). St. Louis has CB Travis Fisher out
(forearm), while SS Adam Archuleta (back) and Aeneas Williams (neck) are probable,
as is CB DeJuan Groce (shoulder).
This game is to be played in the Edward Jones Dome, so weather is not an issue.
Griese has talent, but is often erratic - St. Louis is very generous, though.
Griese has a shot at a solid game, just be careful.
St. Louis' Passing Attack vs. The Tampa
Bay Defense (Neutral Matchup)
Marc Bulger and his corps of receivers stormed back at the end of the game
to steal one from the Seahawks. Besides the usual suspects (Isaac Bruce and
Torry Holt) the backup WRs starred in the comeback, with Shaun McDonald snagging
2/76/1 on 6 chances, and Kevin Curtis grabbing 2/45/1 on his 2 opportunities.
Bruce led the team with 9 targets for 6/78/0, while Holt converted 9 targets
to 5/53/0 in production. Bulger ended the day with 24/42 for 325 yards, 3 TDs
and 3 interceptions - it wasn't his best game, but it ended well. With 120/181
for 1426 yards, 7 TDs and 5 interceptions to his credit in the "mad bomber"
offense of Mike Martz, Bulger leads all QBs in yardage and is currently 5th
in fantasy points per game (21.94 per game, on average). He is a must-start
every week.
Aaron Brooks was held in check by the Bucs last week, with 11/23 for 106 yards,
2 TDs and 1 interception in the close game. Tampa has one of the best secondaries
in the NFL, limiting opponents to 143.8 passing yards per game on average, with
5 TDs surrendered to date. They've averaged 149 passing yards allowed and 1.3
passing scores per game over the last 4 weeks. Las week, Ronde Barber was the
2nd highest scoring DB, with 6 solo tackles, 1 assist, 1 fumble recovery returned
for a TD, and 1 pass defensed.
St. Louis lists QB Marc Bulger as probable (shoulder).
This game is to be played in the Edward Jones Dome, so weather is not an issue.
The Rams are a powerful, multifaceted unit that will push the Tampa defense
to its limits. This is an even matchup between top units.
Washington's Passing Attack vs. The Chicago
Defense (Neutral Matchup)
Mark Brunell struggled to move the ball against the tough Ravens last week,
eking out a mere 13/29 for 83 yards, 1 TD and 1 interception on the day. Needless
to say, there wasn't much in the way of fantasy points among the receivers -
Chris Cooley caught the TD pass, but nobody got more than 25 yards receiving
on the day (Laveranues Coles). It was a poor showing by any yardstick.
Chicago got a week to heal up their wounded secondary, and they needed it.
The team ranks 28th in the NFL allowing an average of 251.3 passing yards per
game, and they have allowed 5 TDs to date. Donovan McNabb hit them for 237 yards,
1 TD and 1 interception in week 4. The team averages 275 passing yards allowed
and 1.3 TDs per outing over the last 3 weeks - this is just not a stout secondary.
Although to be fair, McNabb's been hot against most everyone.
Chicago lists CB Charles Tillman as out (knee) and CB Jerry Azumah (neck, questionable).
The forecast for Soldier Field calls for a high of 60F with a low of 45F and
a 30% chance for rain. If the rains come down hard at game time, the field could
get slick and ball handling could become an issue.
Brunell is struggling, the Bears are struggling - sounds ugly but even to us.
Philadelphia's Passing Attack vs. The Carolina
Defense (Neutral Matchup)
Through 4 games, Donovan McNabb has 98/144 for 1168 yards, 9 TDs and 1 interception,
with 13/36/2 rushing - he's second only to Daunte Culpepper in fantasy points
per game, with an average of 27.27 per game. Terrell Owens is the 2nd ranked
fantasy WR with 26/364/6 to his credit. L.J. Smith is the 7th ranked fantasy
TE with 10/150/2 so far this year. Talk about production - these 3 should be
in your starting lineup.
Carolina's pass defense has been tough all year (they are weak against the
run - most teams don't need to throw the ball against them), limiting opponents
to 167.8 passing yards per game and only 3 thrown scores to date. 17/29 for
226 yards, 2 TDs and 2 interceptions was what Jake Plummer managed to throw
against the Panthers last week - he had more success scoring than most this
season.
Carolina lists CB William Hampton (knee, out). The rested Eagles list TE L.J.
Smith who has a sore shoulder (probable).
The forecast for Lincoln Financial Field calls for a high of 62F and a low
of 43F with a 0% chance for rain. Weather should not be a factor in this matchup.
Look for Philadelphia to throw the ball to Owens and Smith when they need to
- but realize that Brian Westbrook is likely to star this week. We call this
one a neutral matchup.
Jacksonville's Passing Attack vs. The Kansas
City Defense (Neutral Matchup)
Byron Leftwich threw the ball a ton last week, with 36/54 for 357 yards, 1
TD and 2 interceptions. Jimmy Smith (11 targets for 8/113/0) and Fred Taylor
(10 targets for 7/44/0) saw the most passes on the day, while Cortez Hankton
ended up snagging the score (1 for 1/7/1). The game moved Leftwich into 16th
on the overall fantasy QB list for 2004 - he averages 15.76 fantasy points per
game at this stage of the season.
Kansas City's pass D is a mixed bag, ranking 8th in the NFL allowing an average
of 185.8 passing yards per game, but surrendering 7 TDs to date. Over the last
4 weeks, they've been right on that pace, averaging 177 yards allowed and 1
pass TD per game. Kyle Boller completed 10/17 for 154 yards, 1 TD and 0 interceptions
against this group 2 weeks ago.
Both teams come into the game in decent shape, though Jacksonville has been
doing without their TEs Kyle Brady (finger, probable) and George Wrighster (back,
probable). CBs Julian Battle (Achilles, questionable) and William Bartee (neck,
probable) are dinged for K.C.
The forecast for Alltel Stadium calls for a high of 81F and a low of 65F, with
a 0% chance of precipitation. It should be a great day to play a game of football.
Jacksonville has shown the ability to move the ball through the air in the
last few games, while KC generally limits their opposition in this phase - this
looks like a neutral matchup to us.
San Diego's Passing Attack vs. The Atlanta
Defense (Neutral Matchup)
Drew Brees is making the Charger's front office look pretty silly for spending
the draft pick/signing bonus on Phillip Rivers. His team is 3-2, and Brees has
been very effective throwing the ball this year - he has a 100.00 passer rating
this season (72/118 for 893 yards, 8 TDs and 2 interceptions this year, 12th
best fantasy QB with an average of 17.32 fantasy points per game). Last week,
he dismantled the Jags to the tune of 17/26 for 211 yards, 2 TDs and 0 interceptions
- TE Antonio Gates was a fantasy monster with 8/93/2 on the day (Reche Caldwell
was the only other player at the receiver position to catch balls - 3/20/0 -
otherwise the passes all went to running backs).
Atlanta's defense is no joke in 2004, although they rank 18th in passing yards
allowed with an average of 225 per game, they have only given away 4 passing
scores to date. Over the past 4 weeks they average 212 passing yards allowed
and only .5 TDs per game - it's not easy to score on this crowd. Joey Harrington
managed 16/24 for 146 yards, 1 TD and 0 interceptions against them last week.
They also lead the NFL with 19 sacks, so opposing QBs definitely feel the heat
when they line up to play the Falcons.
Atlanta lists CB DeAngelo Hall as out (hip), while CB Jason Webster is questionable
(knee). WR Tim Dwight has a sore toe (probable).
This game is being played at the Georgia Dome, so weather won't be a factor.
Atlanta is tough in this phase, while the Chargers have managed to piece together
an effective attack - that sounds pretty even to us.
Dallas' Passing Attack vs. The Pittsburgh
Defense (Tough Matchup)
Dallas stumbled last week vs. the Giants, and Vinny Testaverde played a poor
game, with 15/24 for 126 yards, 1 TD and 1 interception when it was all said
and done. Keyshawn Johnson snagged the TD and had a half-decent fantasy outing
(6 targets for 4/43/1), but nobody else got over 35 yards receiving. It was
a lackluster day to have Cowboys in your starting lineup.
Pittsburgh has been pretty tough in this phase during 2004 -16/34 for 210 yards,
1 TD and 0 interceptions was the Browns' mark against the Steelers pass D last
week. The Steelers rank 6th in the league allowing an average of 171 passing
yards per game, with only 4 scores surrendered to date. In the past 4 weeks,
the team has averaged 140 passing yards and .5 TDs given up per game - pretty
stout.
Dallas is in good health in this phase of the game, while Pittsburgh lists
starting S Mike Logan as out with a sore hamstring. CB Deshea Townsend has a
sore Achilles (probable).
The forecast for Texas Stadium calls for a high of 85F and a low of 65F with
0% chance of precipitation. Sounds like a nice weekend is on tap down in Texas.
Pittsburgh is tough in this phase of the game, while the Cowboys come into
the matchup stone cold. Advantage, Pittsburgh.
Miami's Passing Attack vs. The Buffalo Defense
(Tough Matchup)
Miami's offensive line has allowed 15 sacks this season (7th most in the NFL)
and that's a major reason why QBs Jay Fiedler (cracked ribs) and A.J. Feeley
(concussion) are possibly sidelined this week. In steps journeyman Sage Rosenfels,
who some felt was the best QB in training camp. He certainly can't do worse
than his teammates, who rank 37th and 38th in fantasy points per game on the
QB board. It's frustrating as TE Randy McMichael and WR Chris Chambers are both
excellent players.
Buffalo's tough secondary has been more generous than usual in 2004, allowing
an average of 234.5 yards per game (but only 5 scores) to date. That's 23rd
in the league as far as yards allowed. Last week, they were lit up by Chad Pennington
for 31/42 for 304 yards, 1 TD and 1 interception - the Bills have been susceptible
in this phase lately. 265 yards and 1.3 TDs per game is their average allowed
over the last 4 weeks - not too good.
Miami lists Fiedler (ribs) and Feeley (head) as questionable to play. CB Troy
Vincent is out for Buffalo (knee), while SS Lawyer Milloy (forearm) and Coy
Wire (thigh) are questionable to play.
The forecast for Ralph Wilson Stadium calls for a high of 51F with a low of
41F and a 30% chance of rain. If the rain comes down hard at game time, the
field could get sloppy and the ball slick.
Division-rival Buffalo is softer than usual in this phase, but the Dolphins'
offense is in disarray and starting their 3rd string QB this week - it'll be
tough for Rosenfels to get the ship righted in the hostile confines of Ralph
Wilson Stadium.
Buffalo's Passing Attack vs. The Miami Defense
(Tough Matchup)
Drew Bledsoe managed to score some fantasy points last week, throwing 16/29
for 197 yards, 2 TDs and 1 interception, including a nice long bomb to Lee Evans
(1/46/1). Other than that, he hit Eric Moulds 6 times for 54 yards (0 TDs) on
10 targets, and threw to Bobby Shaw 7 times for 3/37/0. That performance from
Shaw was apparently not impressive as the team released him yesterday. Nobody
else saw more than 2 balls on the day (Mark Campbell caught the other score,
1/16/1 on 2 targets). Sadly, for Bledsoe owners, the above marks Bledsoe's top
output of the season (64/109 for 795 yards, 5 TDs and 3 interceptions, an average
of 14.25 fantasy points per game, which is 21st among all fantasy QBs.
Miami's proud defense continues to be dominant in this phase, allowing an average
of 106.4 passing yards per game (1st in the NFL) with only 4 scores given away.
Morale is fading fast, though, and CB Sam Madison suggested this week that the
team might be better off trading him and Patrick Surtain away for younger talent
to rebuild with. Not exactly good news for their prospects this season. Tom
Brady only managed 7/16 for 76 yards, 2 TDs and 1 interception last week so
it's clear they kick it up when needed.
Buffalo lists QB J.P. Losman as out (broken leg).
The forecast for Ralph Wilson Stadium calls for a high of 51F with a low of
41F and a 30% chance of rain. If the rain comes down hard at game time, the
field could get sloppy and the ball slick.
Miami sports a very solid pass D, while Buffalo is just starting to revive
in this phase of the game. Home field advantage will help, but this is still
a tough matchup for Bledsoe and company.
Cincinnati's Passing Attack vs. The Cleveland
Defense (Tough Matchup)
Carson Palmer is going through a rough phase in his development as a pro QB.
To date, he has 84/154 for 875 yards, 3 TDs and 7 interceptions to his credit.
He threw for 20/37 for 164 yards, 1 TD and 2 interceptions in his most recent
game, vs. Pittsburgh two weeks ago. Part of the problem could be that the team
is missing their #2 WR, Peter Warrick, who has been hampered by an injured shin
(doubtful). Mostly, though, it's the sort of problems that almost every young
starting QB has in their first years in the league. Locking onto one receiver,
trying to force in throws, and so forth. Due to Palmers' struggles, the WRs
haven't been a fantasy force recently - Chad Johnson only managed 4/54/0 on
6 targets in week 4.
Cleveland's pass defense is of the bend-but-don't-break variety - they are
24th in the NFL averaging 235.6 passing yards allowed per season, but lead the
league with only 2 passing scores surrendered to date. Over their past 4 games,
this group has averaged 253 yards allowed per game, but only .5 TDs per game
- they are tough to score on. Ben Roethlisberger managed to rack up 231 yards,
1 TD and 1 interception on this group last week.
Peter Warrick's shin injury is covered above. Besides that, the teams are both
healthy.
The forecast for Cleveland Brown's Stadium calls for a high of 59F and a low
of 49F with a 10% chance for rain. Just about perfect football weather, in other
words.
Palmer is struggling to make things happen right now, and the Cleveland defense
won't make it easy on their division rivals - advantage, Cleveland.
Cleveland's Passing Attack vs. The Cincinnati
Defense (Tough Matchup)
Jeff Garcia just isn't getting the job done. Last week he put up 16/34 for
210 yards, 1 TD and 0 interceptions while his team chased Pittsburgh from behind
all afternoon. He has 74/137 for 836 yards, 4 TDs and 4 interceptions since
the start of regular season (25th fantasy QB in the land). This just isn't a
powerful passing offense at this point in the season. Last week, Andre Davis
was a valuable fantasy WR, with 9 targets for 5/101/1, but no one else got above
35 yards receiving.
The Bengals have one of the better secondaries in the NFL to date, allowing
an average of 178.5 passing yards per game (5 scores), 7th in the NFL. Ben Roethlisberger
connected for 17/24 and 174 yards, 1 TD and 0 interceptions in his chance against
them 2 weeks ago. The team is staying right at their top-ten pace right now.
Cleveland is in good shape, with no new injuries, while Cincinnati's secondary
is banged up - CB Rashad Bauman (Achilles) and S Rogers Beckett (concussion)
are out, while S Kim Herring (foot) and S Kevin Kaesviharn (back) are questionable
and CB Reggie Myles (groin) is probable to play.
The forecast for Cleveland Brown's Stadium calls for a high of 59F and a low
of 49F with a 10% chance for rain. Just about perfect football weather, in other
words.
Garcia and company will have a hard time moving the ball on the stalwart Bengal
DBs, but they are banged up and can't afford more injuries in this phase. Advantage,
Cincinnati.
Kansas City's Passing Attack vs. The Jacksonville
Defense (Tough Matchup)
Trent Green threw the ball pretty well in the game vs. Baltimore, putting up
21/31 for 223 yards, 1 TD and 0 interceptions. He did so without #1 WR Eddie
Kennison. In Kennison's absence, Chris Horn (10 targets for 5/60/0) and Tony
Gonzalez (7 for 4/42/0) got the most attention - fellow TE Jason Dunn got the
score, though (4 for 3/23/1). Green owners had to be encouraged by his increased
level of production - he's been pretty quiet during the opening quarter of the
season (75/127 for 808 yards, 4 TDs and 3 interceptions, #22 among all fantasy
QBs in fantasy points per game at 14.25).
Jacksonville's pass defense is above average, ranking 10th in the league allowing
191.4 passing yards per game (5 scores surrendered to date). They've been a
little off that pace recently, allowing an average of 204 passing yards per
game in the last 4 weeks, and an average of 1.0 TDs per game. Not bad at all.
Drew Brees did touch them for 2 scores last week (211 yards) - the Jags are
back on their heels a bit.
Kansas City says that Eddie Kennison is good to go. "Wide receiver Eddie
Kennison, who missed the last two and half games with a hamstring injury, showed
no ill effects after working near full speed on Monday and will start at Jacksonville."
(Kansas City Star, 10/13/04) TE Kris Wilson (ankle, out) and TE Tony Gonzalez
(foot, probable) are also on the injury report. S Donovin Darius is questionable
to play (ankle).
The forecast for Alltel Stadium calls for a high of 81F and a low of 65F, with
a 0% chance of precipitation. It should be a great day to play a game of football.
The Chiefs have a few weapons to throw at the Jaguars, but the home-team is
pretty tough in this phase - advantage, Jacksonville.
Seattle's Passing Attack vs. The New England
Defense (Tough Matchup)
Seattle dropped a heartbreaker last week, but Matt Hasselbeck played pretty
well- he threw for 20/35 for 216 yards, 2 TDs and 0 interceptions for a very
solid fantasy outing. Koren Robinson (9 targets for 5/59/0) and Darrell Jackson
(7 for 5/91/1) led the team in chances - TE Jerramy Stevens caught the other
score (5 for 3/35/1). Koren Robinson continues to have major troubles dropping
passes.
New England crushed the Miami Dolphins last week, knocking 2 of their QBs out
of the game (and likely this week's game) - they are 3rd in the NFL with 16
sacks this season. Miami managed 257 passing yards, 1 TD and 1 interception
on the day. The Patriots are 11th in the NFL allowing an average of 197 yards
per game, but have only given away 4 passing TDs to date. Over the past 3 weeks,
they average 181 passing yards allowed, and .7 TDs - not much. Rodney Harrison
was the 5th best IDP DB last week, with 8 solo tackles, 3 assists, 1 sack, 1
forced fumble and 1 pass defensed.
New England is in good shape, as are the Seahawks.
The forecast for Gillette Stadium calls for a beautiful day, with 60F for a
high and 40F for a low, with a 0% chance for rain.
Seattle has a good offense, while the Patriots field a tough-nosed secondary.
In the Patriots' home stadium, we think this is a tough matchup for the Seahawks.
Chicago's Passing Attack vs. The Washington
Defense (Tough Matchup)
Jonathan Quinn was steady in his first start as a Bear, with 26/43 for 215
yards, 1 TD and 0 interceptions - not too bad. David Terrell was on again in
that game, with 11 targets for 9/116/0 - if he would only play consistently,
he'd be a viable fantasy starter. He has 5 catches of 25 yards or more in 2004.
FB Bryan Johnson caught the score. It looks like the Bears have a decent stand
in for the injured Rex Grossman.
Washington held Kyle Boller to 9/18 for 81 yards, 0 TDs and 3 interceptions
last week (and they still lost the game). The Redskins have the 5th ranked pass
defense in the league, allowing an average of 170.2 passing yards per game,
with only 4 scores given up to date. Over the past 4 weeks, they are right on
that pace, allowing an average of 178 yards per contest, and 1 passing score
per game. That's pretty solid, folks. Shawn Springs was the 10th ranked IDP
DB last week, with 3 solo tackles, 1 sack, 1 interception and 1 pass defensed.
Chicago has no major new injuries to report (they are coming off a bye). Washington
lists S Andre Lott (hamstring, probable) and CB Shawn Springs (ankle, probable).
The forecast for Soldier Field calls for a high of 60F with a low of 45F and
a 30% chance for rain. If the rains come down hard at game time, the field could
get slick and ball handling could become an issue.
The Bears are competent, while the Redskins are excellent. Advantage, Washington.
Carolina's Passing Attack vs. The Philadelphia
Defense (Tough Matchup)
Jake Delhomme snuck into the top 12 among all fantasy QBs last week (on the
strength of a rushing TD - he only hit 13/20 for 173 yards, 1 TD and 0 interceptions).
The striking thing about the game was the emergence of Keary Colbert as a top-scoring
fantasy WR (6 targets for 4/115/1) and the collapse of Muhsin Muhammad (3 for
1/9/0) - Ricky Proehl was the second-most targeted receiver during the game
(5 for 3/35/0). Champ Bailey and the other Broncos shut down Muhammad throughout
the game. So far in 2004, Delhomme is a top ten (#8) fantasy QB, with 75/126
for 945 yards, 6 TDs and 5 interceptions (7/16/1 rushing) to his credit.
Philadelphia comes into this game well-rested and ready to roll. They defeated
Chicago 19-9 before their bye week, and held newbie Jonathan Quinn to 26/43
for 215 yards, 1 TD and 0 interceptions. Thus far in 2004, the Eagles are the
25th ranked pass defense in terms of yards allowed per game (236.5), but they
are tough to score on - only 4 passing TDs allowed through 4 games. Over their
last 3 games, they have averaged 234 yards and 1.3 pass TDs allowed per contest.
One thing that the Eagles do well is to rush the passer - they have 18 sacks
to date. Carolina is not particularly susceptible to pass pressure, though,
with only 6 sacks allowed to date.
Carolina continues to do without Steve Smith (broken leg, out).WR Karl Hankton
has a sore hamstring (probable). Philadelphia lists CBs Dexter Wynn (hamstring,
doubtful) and Lito Sheppard (thumb, probable)
The forecast for Lincoln Financial Field calls for a high of 62F and a low
of 43F with a 0% chance for rain. Weather should not be a factor in this matchup.
Carolina has one of the better fantasy units in the NFL, but Muhammad struggled
to get open last week. Philly is tough to score on - this looks like a tough
matchup for the Panthers to us.
Oakland's Passing Attack vs. The Denver
Defense (Bad Matchup)
Kerry Collins is off to a horrible start in 2004, with a lot of mental errors
and a total of 7 interceptions vs. only 2 TDs to his credit to date. Last week,
he put up 28/44 for 245 yards, 1 TD and 3 interceptions - he just hasn't been
careful with the ball so far. Jerry Porter (23 targets for 11/159/0) and Ronald
Curry (19 for 16/160/1) have been the most-thrown to Raider receivers over the
past 3 weeks - as you can see, fantasy points are hard to come by in this unit
right now.
Denver brings a very strong pass defense to the table. 13/20 for 173 yards,
1 TD and 0 interceptions was Jake Delhomme's haul vs. Denver last week. The
team averages 142.2 passing yards allowed per game (only 3 passing scores given
away to date) which is second-best in the NFL right now. It's hard to move the
ball on or score on this team.
Rich Gannon remains sidelined until further notice (neck injury, still in a
neck brace). Denver lists CBs Willie Middlebrooks (hamstring, questionable);
Roc Alexander (finger, probable) and Lenny Walls (shoulder, probable).
The forecast for Network Associates Coliseum calls for a high of 68F and a
low of 56F with a 0% chance for rain. Weather shouldn't be a factor in this
game.
Collins needs to find a spark, but that will be tough against the stout division
rivals coming to town this weekend. Advantage, Denver.
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