Passing Matchups - Week 7
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Posted 10/21 by Mark Wimer and Joe Bryant, Exclusive to Footballguys.com
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Hi Folks,
Here's our look at the Passing Matchups for this week.
PLEASE NOTE: This does NOT replace the Cheatsheet ranking. The Cheatsheet rankings
are the final say on where we see a player for that week. The Matchup Breakdowns
are simply one more tool in the box when it comes to helping choose your lineup.
Also note, just because a player has a "bad" matchup, it does NOT mean
he's not a starter in your league. If Peyton Manning is playing the toughest pass
defense in the league, that just means he's got a tough matchup that week. He's
also your starter unless you're loaded at QB. In the same way, if the worst QB
on your roster has a "great" matchup that week, it doesn't necessarily
mean he's your starter. It means we think he'll fare better than normal that week.
Bottom line is that the cheatsheets are the final say.
Let's jump to it.
Joe
**************************************
Joe Bryant
Owner - www.Footballguys.com
Bye Weeks
Houston's David Carr/Andre Johnson
Pittsburgh's Ben Roethlisberger/Plaxico Burress/Hines Ward
San Francisco's Tim Rattay/Brandon Lloyd/Eric Johnson
Washington's Mark Brunell/Laveranues Coles/Rod Gardner
New York Giants' Passing Attack vs. The
Detroit Defense (Great Matchup)
Kurt Warner has settled in nicely in New York, and he went into the bye-week
on a good note - 18/33 for 217 yards, 1 TD and 0 interceptions. He's 22nd on
the fantasy QB board, though, largely due to a limited amount of TD passes (95/147
for 1125 yards, 3 TDs and 1 interception in 5 games) - don't look for explosive
performances from Warner in this system. Amani Toomer is 45th among fantasy
WRs with 24/321/0 to date; Jeremy Shockey is 8th among fantasy TEs with 22/234/2
so far.
Detroit was abused by Green Bay last week, allowing 26/39 for 277 yards, 3
TDs and 0 interceptions to Brett Favre and Ahman Green - nothing went right
for the Lions' pass defense in week 6. They average 258.6 passing yards allowed
per game (28th in the NFL) this season, and have given up 7 scores - the Lions
are consistently soft any way you look at it. The one thing they do well is
rush the passer (16 sacks to date, tied for 5th in the NFL) - the Giants are
tied for 7th most sacks allowed this season (16) - Warner owners should be aware
of this concern.
The Giants come into the game largely healthy (and rested after a bye), while
Detroit has been doing without CB Andre Goodman (questionable) and also lists
CB Fernando Bryant (groin, questionable).
The forecast for Giants Stadium calls for a high of 61F and a low of 49F with
a 30% chance of rain. If the rain comes down hard at game time, the field could
get sloppy and the ball wet - not optimum conditions for scoring.
The Giants have a huge edge in this matchup, and home-field advantage to boot.
They need to pay attention to protecting the QB from the hard-rushing Lions,
though.
Jacksonville's Passing Attack vs. The Indianapolis
Defense (Great Matchup)
Byron Leftwich is getting stronger as the weeks go by - last week, he was the
#2 fantasy QB in the land, with 24/36 for 298 yards, 2 TDs and 0 interceptions,
with 3/25/1 rushing on top of the passing stats - that's a top fantasy outing,
folks. The Jaguars look like Leftwich's team at this point - he's the focal
point of the offense. Unsurprisingly, what's good for Leftwich is good for Jimmy
Smith, who led the team with 9 targets for 7/91/0 receiving last week - Fred
Taylor (7 for 3/71/1) and Cortez Hankton (3 for 3/28/1) caught the TDs.
Indianapolis pass defense is very, very poor this season, allowing an average
of 293.6 passing yards per game and a total of 9 TDs to date. They coughed up
245 yards and a TD to the struggling Kerry Collins two weeks ago (but they also
intercepted him 3 times). Over the past 4 weeks, the team averages 304 passing
yards allowed and 2 TDs per contest. They are not a defensive unit that inspires
fear in their opponents.
TE Kyle Brady came back from his finger problems last week for the Jags (5
targets for 3/18/0), while fellow TE George Wrighster continues to battle a
bad back (questionable). Leftwich is questionable due to his ankle, as is WR
Jermaine Lewis (concussion, questionable). Indianapolis' secondary is limping
even after the bye week, and lists CB Nick Harper as questionable due to a sore
elbow, while all these other guys are probable: S Mike Doss (hamstring), CB
Joseph Jefferson (knee); S Bob Sanders (foot).
This game is to be played in the RCA Dome - weather won't be a factor.
Leftwich won't see a more favorable matchup than this for many weeks. Advantage,
Jacksonville.
Tennessee's Passing Attack vs. The Minnesota
Defense (Good Matchup)
Steve McNair had a very rough game against the Texans last week, with 19/41
for 210 yards, 1 TD and 4 interceptions - it was not his best game, by a long
shot. Chris Brown got taken out by a hard hit before the half, and the team
had only 9 rushes in his absence (4/33/0 by McNair) - the offense was taken
out of their game by the injury. McNair hasn't been powering fantasy offenses
much this season, with 84/146 for 905 yards, 4 TDs and 6 interceptions to his
credit so far (18/100/1 rushing) - he's 25th in fantasy points per game among
QBs, averaging 14.28. However, Derrick Mason and Drew Bennett are top 30 WRs,
largely due to the fact that Tennessee is thin at WR and TE thanks to injuries/illnesses
- those 2 players have accounted for 67 targets between the 2 of them (34 for
16/215/1 for Bennett (27th fantasy WR this season, averaging 8.25 FP per game)
and 33 for 21/231/2 for Mason (18th fantasy WR this season, averaging 9.1 FP
per game)) over the last 3 weeks.
Minnesota's pass D is weak, allowing an average of 280.2 passing yards per
game (only Indianapolis is softer this season) - they have given up 7 passing
scores to date. Last week, Aaron Brooks slapped down 22/39 for 249 yards, 1
TD and 1 interception on them - most teams move the ball easily on the Vikings'
secondary.
Tyrone Calico (knee) and TE Shad Meier (appendix) are out. TE Erron Kinney
(calf) and QB McNair (chest) are questionable to play.
This game is to be played at the Metrodome, so weather won't be a factor.
Tennessee has a good chance to get back on track against the generous Vikings.
Minnesota's Passing Attack vs. The Tennessee
Defense (Great Matchup)
Nobody is a hotter QB than Daunte Culpepper right now (18 TDs and 3 interceptions
in only 5 games) - he is on pace to blow by Dan Marino's record of 48 TDs in
a season (1984) All you can say is "Wow". With Culpepper going at
that pace, you know that Randy Moss is off the charts (#1 fantasy WR with 26/394/8
receiving to date). Marcus Robinson is 11th right now (18/250/5), Nate Burleson
is 32nd (19/322/1). Jermaine Wiggins is the #4 fantasy TE to date (15/139/2)
in fantasy points per game, and he's missed 2 games due to a broken hand. This
group is smoking right now. 26/37 for 425 yards, 5 TDs and 2 interceptions vs
the Saints last week - that's how hot Culpepper is coming into this game.
Tennessee is not hot, having just coughed up 16/26 for 266 yards, 1 TD and
1 interception to David Carr last week. They average 234.3 passing yards allowed
per game to date, and have given up 11 TDs in this phase (3rd most in the NFL
right now). Over the past 4 weeks, the averages are 241 yards and 2.0 TDs per
game. They have to be dreading this visit to the Metrodome. CB Andre Woolfolk
had a good IDP outing last week, with 7 solo tackles, 1 assist, 1 interception
and 1 pass defensed last week (8th in the NFL among DBs).
Minnesota's Randy Moss has a hamstring injury, and his status for the game
on Sunday won't be determined until Friday (after this has been posted on the
website) - Moss owners need to pay attention to the late-week injury reports.
The Titans are down S Lance Schulters (foot, out).
This game is to be played indoors, so weather won't be a factor.
Minnesota looks poised to dominate this phase of the game - they have a huge
edge on the Titan's secondary.
Denver's Passing Attack vs. The Cincinnati
Defense (Good Matchup)
Jake Plummer has been a great fantasy starter in recent weeks, with 11/20 for
190 yards, 3 TDs and 1 interception to his credit in his most recent outing
(7th best fantasy QB last week). 107/184 for 1328 yards, 10 TDs and 5 interceptions
(25/99/0 rushing so far) has pushed Plummer into the top 10 among fantasy QBs,
and he's averaging 18.55 fantasy points per game. Over the past 3 weeks, Ashley
Lelie has begun to reward his fantasy owners, with 13 targets yielding 5/100/2,
and Jeb Putzier has racked up 9 targets for 5/94/1 to lead the receivers in
fantasy scoring. Rod Smith has seen 18 balls for 9/116/0 during recent weeks.
Cincinnati's defense got exposed last week, as Cleveland's Jeff Garcia hit
16/23 for 310 yards, 4 TDs and 2 interceptions. The Bengals have usually been
made of sterner stuff, averaging 204.8 passing yards allowed per game this season,
with 9 scores surrendered to date, but they just didn't have any answers against
the Browns last week. In fact, they average 201 yards and 2 passing scores allowed
per game over the last 4 weeks, so this is a unit that is very giving right
now. IDP owners liked what they got out of Tory James (5 solo tackles, 2 interceptions
and 2 passes defensed) and Kevin Kaesviharn (8 solo tackles, 1 assist, 1 fumble
recovery returned for a TD) as both were in the top ten fantasy DBs last week.
Denver comes into the game in good health on their unit (TE Patrick Hape (knee)
and WRs Triandos Luke (thigh) and Darius Watts (shoulder) are all probable),
while the Bengals are pretty banged up in the secondary - S Rogers Beckett is
out due to concussion woes, while CBs Rashad Bauman (Achilles, doubtful) and
Terrell Roberts (illness, probable) are listed on Wednesday's injury report.
The forecast for Paul Brown Stadium calls for a high of 68F and a low of 42F,
with a 10% chance of rain on Monday night. It should be a nice, cool evening
to play some football.
The limping Bengals are probably in for a long night against the Broncos -
advantage, Denver.
Indianapolis' Passing Attack vs. The Jacksonville
Defense (Good Matchup)
The Colts' passing attack is elite. Peyton Manning threw for 16/26 for 198
yards, 3 TDs and 1 interception in their most recent outing, vs. Oakland. He
is second only to nuclear-hot Daunte Culpepper, averaging 24.18 fantasy points
per game (104/157 for 14 TDs and only 3 interceptions to date). Reggie Wayne,
Brandon Stokley and Marvin Harrison are ALL in the top 20 among fantasy receivers
this season (6th, 12th, and 17th, respectively). Marcus Pollard (8/56/2) and
Dallas Clark (2/68/1) have both made big plays for Manning when necessary. It's
all good in this phase of the game for the Colts. All 3 WRs should be in your
starting lineup, and Pollard probably should be considered in TE required leagues,
too (12th best fantasy TE to date). Manning hardly ever gets sacked, with a
mere 3 to date (tied for least in the NFL).
Jacksonville's pass defense got shredded by the Chiefs last week (23/33 for
315 yards, 2 TDs and 1 interception). They are usually a lot better than that
(averaging 205 passing yards per game for the season, with 7 TDs surrendered
to date) - that very strong performance by the Chiefs looks more like an aberration
than a trend at this point.
S Donovin Darius is listed by Jacksonville (ankle, probable) while WR Troy
Walters remains out (broken arm), WR Brad Pyatt is questionable (ankle), and
TE Marcus Pollard (knee) and WR Brandon Stokley (hip) are probable to play this
weekend.
This game is to be played in the RCA Dome - weather won't be a factor.
Indianapolis is an elite unit, while the Jags present a mid-level pass defense
most weeks (and they are back on their heels coming into the game) - advantage,
Indianapolis.
New Orleans' Passing Attack vs. The Oakland
Defense (Good Matchup)
New Orleans ran with the high-octane Vikings for most of the game last week,
and Aaron Brooks had an excellent fantasy outing (22/38 for 249 yards, 1 TD
and 1 interception, with 3/25/1 rushing) - it just wasn't enough to put away
the streaking Vikings, though. Donte Stallworth did a horrible job catching
the ball, converting 13 chances into 4/34/0. That won't do the job in the NFL,
or in fantasy terms. Joe Horn managed 7/65/1 on 9 looks as the most productive
receiver on the team (as usual). Jerome Pathon was very good last week, with
5 targets for 4/92/0 - we think that he'll see more action if Stallworth continues
to not tuck the ball away.
Oakland's secondary was shredded last week by the Broncos - Jake Plummer only
needed 11 completions to rack up 190 yards, 3 TDs and only 1 interception. Ouch.
The Raiders are typically very giving as far as points go, with 10 TDs surrendered
to date (averaging 201.5 passing yards allowed per week so far). In fact, they
average 2.3 passing TDs per game over the past 4 weeks (225 yards per game).
SS Marques Anderson was a top IDP performer last week, with 14 solo tackles,
2 assists, 1 interception and 1 pass defensed, but he can't do the job all by
himself.
New Orleans lists WRs Talman Gardner (ankle) and Donte Stallworth (rib) as
questionable. Oakland's unit is in good shape.
The forecast for Network Associates Coliseum in calls for a high of 65F and
a low of 53F with a 30% chance for precipitation - that sounds like good football
weather, unless the rain comes down hard at game time.
The Saints are a solid unit, while the Raiders are soft - advantage, New Orleans.
Carolina's Passing Attack vs. The San Diego
Defense (Good Matchup)
Jake Delhomme had a very poor outing last week - 24/42 for 205 yards, 1 TD
and 4 interceptions - vs. a charged-up Eagles' defense looking for payback (which
they got). Keary Colbert only converted 2 of his 7 targets for a mere 39 yards.
Muhsin Muhammad managed 6/48/1 on 8 chances - he was the team's top fantasy
performer (20th fantasy WR in the land last week). There just wasn't much to
brag about after the game.
San Diego usually makes their opposition look pretty good, ranking 30th in
the NFL averaging 263 passing yards allowed per game (with 9 scores given up
to date). 12/21 for 218 yards, 2 TDs and 1 interception was Michael Vick's passing
statistics vs. the Chargers when all was said and done last week. They held
him down for most of the game, but crumbled in the 4th quarter. Most teams enjoy
good success throwing the ball vs. The Chargers in 2004.
Steve Smith remains sidelined by his broken leg. The Chargers are good to go.
This game is to be played at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte - the forecast
calls for a high of 76F and a low of 51F, with a 30% chance for rain. If the
rain comes down hard at game time, the field and ball could get slick and harder
to handle.
Carolina struggled last week, but things should be better for Panther owners
this week.
Green Bay's Passing Attack vs. The Dallas
Defense (Good Matchup)
Brett Favre continues to be a model of the archetypal NFL QB - tough, resilient,
productive. He's 9th in fantasy points per game this season (18.65 fantasy points
per game) with 130/208 for 1460 yards, 11 TDs and 6 interceptions. The receiving
corps is deep, with Javon Walker, Robert Ferguson, and Donald Driver all making
strong contributions at various points this year. Injury concerns have cropped
up lately among the trio, though, as Walker is nursing a sore shoulder and tender
ribs, while Ferguson missed the last game due to knee and ankle woes. Driver
filled in for Ferguson admirably, with 12 targets for 9/110/2 last week - Favre
is a fantasy points machine, folks. He is also well protected (the team has
allowed only 3 sacks this year, tied for 1st in the NFL).
Dallas' pass defense is ranked highly in terms of yards allowed (9th in the
NFL, giving up 203.6 passing yards per game this year), but they are uncommonly
generous in the scoring column, with 10 TDs surrendered to date. Over the past
4 weeks, They have been a little tougher, with an average of 189 passing yards
allowed per game, and only 1.0 passing scores per contest. Ben Roethlisberger
victimized them for 21/25 for 193 yards, 2 TDs and 0 interceptions last week,
though - it's fair to say that Dallas isn't consistently strong in this phase
of the game. Terence Newman was picked on last week, but that made him a top
IDP performer (11 solo tackles and 1 assist, 7th among all IDP DBs).
Dallas is in good health, while Green Bay lists Walker (shoulder, probable)
and Ferguson (knee/ankle, questionable).
The forecast for Lambeau Field calls for a high of 60F and a low of 35F with
a 10% chance of precipitation. It should be a clear, crisp autumn day - great
football weather, in our book.
Favre is pretty hot right now (25/38 for 257 yards, 2 TDs and 0 interceptions
last week), while Dallas is not playing well lately. Advantage, Green Bay.
Tampa Bay's Passing Attack vs. The Chicago
Defense (Good Matchup)
Brian Griese looks like he is back at the top of his game. If not for some
fumble-fingered teammates, he very well may have led the Buccaneers to an upset
of the Rams last week. 27/40 for 286 yards, 2 TDs and 1 interception was a fine
outing. Michael Clayton did an awesome job, with 13 targets for 8/142/0 to his
credit (the next-most-targeted players was Charles Lee, with 6 for 3/31/0) -
it looks like the Griese to Clayton tandem is clicking.
Mark Brunell managed a mere 8/22 for 95 yards, 1 TD and 1 interception against
the Bears last week, as the team welcomed back IDP star CB Jerry Azumah (2 solo
tackles, 1 assist, 1 interception run back for a TD and 1 pass defensed, 5th
best fantasy DB last week). The team averages 219.6 passing yards allowed per
game (20th in the NFL to date), and has given up 6 scores to date - the Washington
game was a strong performance. Usually this unit is pretty giving.
CB Charles Tillman continues to be sidelined for the Bears (knee, out), and
S Bobby Gray is out, too (groin). Tampa is still waiting on Joe Jurevicius to
play this season, and traded away Keenan McCardell on Tuesday. Joey Galloway
is out (groin), Charles Lee is doubtful (knee) and QB Chris Simms is questionable
(left shoulder).
The forecast for Raymond James Stadium calls for a high of 83F and a low of
67F with a 0% chance of rain - it should be a great day for a football game.
Tampa's attack appears to be on the rise, while the Bears have been fairly
soft most games - this looks like an appealing matchup to us.
Atlanta's Passing Attack vs. The Kansas
City Defense (Good Matchup)
Michael Vick caught fire late in the game vs. San Diego, and put up the kind
of fantasy points that his owners have hoped for all season (27.4 fantasy points
last week, #4 fantasy QB in the land). He hit 12/21 for 218 yards, 2 TDs and
1 interception (with 9/35/1 rushing) - Alge Crumpler led receivers on the team
in fantasy points with 4 targets for 4 receptions, 54 yards and 1 TD. Peerless
Price had the most chances last week, with 6 targets for 2/67/0. Dez White snagged
the other TD (4 for 1/32/1). Over the past 3 weeks, Crumpler (17 targets for
10/163/1) and Price (16 for 9/173/0) are the most-thrown-to Falcons - that should
continue in weeks to come. Atlanta has allowed too many sacks this season (20
to date, tied for 1st in the NFL) - that is not how you keep Michael Vick healthy.
K.C. has crept into the top 10 among pass defenses this season, currently averaging
204 passing yards allowed per contest (9 TDs given up to date). Byron Leftwich
lit them up for 24/36 for 298 yards, 2 TDs and 1 interception last week, though
- this bunch of defenders is fairly suspect in the passing phase, despite their
stingy yards-allowed average, and they are reeling after the Jaguars' attack
manhandled them.
The Falcons come into the game banged up, with TE Eric Beverly out (shoulder)
and WRs Brian Finneran (foot) and Peerless Price (hamstring) questionable, while
KC lists CB Julian Battles (Achilles, probable).
The forecast for Arrowhead Stadium calls for a high of 66F and a low of 48F
with a 10% chance of rain. A good day for a football game is coming down the
pike.
This is a good matchup for Vick and his compatriots.
New England's Passing Attack vs. The New
York Jets' Defense (Good Matchup)
New England's Tom Brady has only 6 more passing yards than this week's opposing
QB (1157 vs. 1151 for Pennington), but ranks 13 slots higher in fantasy points
per week (8th with an average of 18.8 per contest) thanks to a total of 10 TDs
vs. only 5 interceptions. Brady throws to TE Daniel Graham in the redzone (23
targets for 16/159/5 on the season, 3rd best fantasy TE), while the Jets hand
off to Curtis Martin (in a nutshell). The second-highest scoring Patriot receiver
is David Patten (33 for 17/324/3). David Givens leads the team in targets to
date (35 for 19/334/1). Last week (one week after spooking Brady owners with
a mere 76 passing yards), the Patriots' QB had 19/30 for 231 yards, 1 TD and
1 interception - a very workmanlike performance, ranking 16th among all fantasy
QBs last week. New England is tied with their opponent as the second-least sacked
team in the league, allowing only 6 to date.
The Jets' pass D is mediocre, averaging 218.8 passing yards allowed per game
(19th in the NFL) - they have given away 6 scores to date. The high-flying 49ers
attack managed 18/28 for 286 yards, 1 TD and 1 interception vs. The Jets last
week - the Jets are off their usual hard-nosed pace coming into this game.
New England lists WRs P.K. Sam (groin, IR), Deion Branch (knee, doubtful) and
Troy Brown (shoulder, questionable), and also notes that Tom Brady is probable
due to a sore shoulder, as is backup Jim Miller. The Jets say CB Derrick Strait
(foot) and S Rashad Washington (foot) are out.
The forecast for Gillette Stadium calls for a high of 59F and a low of 43F,
with a 30% chance for precipitation. If the rain comes down hard at game time,
the ball and the field could get slick and that would impact both offenses.
Tom Brady is almost surgical in his passing attack, while the Jets are only
middling in this phase of the game - advantage, New England.
Dallas' Passing Attack vs. The Green Bay
Defense (Good Matchup)
Vinny Testaverde has cooled off in recent games - the Dallas offense averages
18/30 for 221 yards, 1.3 TDs per game over the past 4 weeks - but he got the
engine going last week by throwing to Terry Glenn a lot (10 targets for 7/120/0)
and he hit Keyshawn Johnson often (10 for 6/61/1). In addition, the team added
and subtracted talented receivers this week (trading Antonio Bryant to Cleveland
for Quincy Morgan). How the arrival of Morgan plays out will be interesting
to see - but right now Glenn and Johnson are the hot Cowboy receivers.
Green Bay's defense is not strong in any phase, and they have allowed an average
of 210.3 passing yards per game (15th in the NFL). Detroit, with one Roy Williams
tied behind their back (and Charles Rogers on IR) only managed 101 passing yards,
1 TD and 1 interception last week - but that was a function of their battered
receiving corps more than a sudden Packer resurgence. In fact, the Packers have
allowed the second-most passing scores in the NFL this season (13 to date) -
they just aren't tough. Over the past 4 weeks, they average 219 yards and 2.5
TDs allowed per game. They don't put much pressure on the opposing QBs, either,
ranking 30th in the NFL with only 8 sacks so far this year.
Dallas is in good health, while Green Bay lists CB Al Harris (toe) and S Darren
Sharper (shin) as probable to play.
The forecast for Lambeau Field calls for a high of 60F and a low of 35F with
a 10% chance of precipitation. It should be a clear, crisp autumn day - great
football weather, in our book.
Testaverde needs a great game to quiet the critics and the Cowboys have good
prospects for success this week.
St. Louis' Passing Attack vs. The Miami
Defense (Neutral Matchup)
Mike Martz's faith in his passing attack has to be at new highs, as Marc Bulger
has been excellent in the last two games (18/30 for 264 yards, 2 TDs and 1 interception
last week; 24/42 for 325 yards, 3 TDs and 3 interceptions two weeks ago). That
probably means that Bulger and company will continue to hum along at their current
frenetic pace, as Martz just loves to throw the ball around the field - with
Isaac Bruce (23 targets for 14/189/0 over the past 3 weeks), Torry Holt (24
for 14/205/2), Shaun McDonald (10 for 6/112/2), and Kevin Curtis (9 for 6/99/1)
all playing well at WR, why wouldn't he? There is some concern for Isaac Bruce
owners as he was very quiet last week though.
Miami's pass defense has been pretty stout this season, averaging 122.7 yards
allowed per game (1st in the NFL) and they have only given up 5 scores to date.
Last week, Drew Bledsoe managed 15/28 for 212 yards, 1 TD and 0 interceptions
against this bunch - not a huge game, but more than the Dolphins are usually
allowing.
Miami says S Antuan Edwards is doubtful due to a groin injury. The Rams are
healthy.
The forecast for ProPlayer Stadium calls for a high of 83F and a low of 67F
with a 0% chance for rain. Weather shouldn't be a factor in this game.
The Rams are a high-flying bunch, but the Dolphins are hard to dominate in
this phase - this looks like an even matchup between two top units.
Arizona's Passing Attack vs. The Seattle
Defense (Neutral Matchup)
Arizona's Josh McCown finally started to live up to the promise many saw in
him during preseason, throwing 19/34 for 231 yards, 3 TDs and only 1 interception
vs. The 49ers two weeks ago. The 3 TDs represented his first passing scores
of the season - Larry Fitzgerald (6 targets for 5/94/1), Troy Hambrick (2 for
2/11/1) and Freddie Jones (5 for 2/20/1) were the lucky recipients of the points.
Can McCown keep up his strong production this week? Stay tuned.
Seattle allowed 19/30 for 231 yards, 1 TD and 1 interception to Tom Brady last
week. They have averaged 210.8 passing yards per game thus far in 2004 (with
only 5 scores given up to date), which ranks dead average in the NFL at 16th
as far as passing yards allowed is concerned.
Seattle lists no one injured in the secondary, but they lost a top pass-rusher
when Grant Wistrom was declared out for 6-8 weeks with a broken knee cap. WR
Anquan Boldin remains out (knee), while WR Nate Poole has a sore ankle (questionable).
The forecast for Sun Devil Stadium calls for a high of 80F and a low of 61F
with a 10% chance for precipitation - a fine day for a game of football is on
tap in the desert.
Arizona is starting to get their offense revved up, while the Seahawks are
playing fairly soft of late in this phase of the game - advantage, Arizona.
Miami's Passing Attack vs. The St. Louis
Defense (Neutral Matchup)
Miami's QBs are having trouble staying healthy, and it's partly due to their
OL, which has allowed a league-high 20 sacks. That's just not good for your
offense. There is some hope for the offense as a whole, as Sammy Morris managed
to get the job done rushing the ball last week (18/91/0) - if he can continue
that, Fiedler may find the going a little easier. He eked out 12/23 for 136
yards, 1 TD and 1 interception last week against Buffalo (Randy McMichael led
the team with 3/34/0, while Derrius Thompson caught the rare TD going 1/24/1
on the day) - basically, fantasy points are hard to come by on this unit. You
should probably look elsewhere for your fantasy starters right now, although
McMichael is in the upper echelon of fantasy TEs with 31/370/1 to his credit
this year (7th in the NFL among fantasy TEs) - but even he hasn't seen much
in the way of pay-dirt this year.
St. Louis has been playing fairly soft in this phase of the game during 2004,
with an average of 233.7 passing yards allowed per game (8 TDs surrendered to
date). Brian Griese singed the secondary for 27/40 for 286 yards, 2 TDs and
1 interception, and if his teammates could have held onto the ball, he looked
poised to do more damage than that - the Rams weren't shutting down the Tampa
receivers at all on Monday night. CB Jerametrius Butler was 3rd among fantasy
DBs last week with 8 solo tackles, 1 interception, 1 forced fumble and 3 passes
defensed.
Miami says that Fiedler is probable to play despite his rib injuries, and also
list WR Wes Welker as probable (toe). The Rams list CB Travis Fisher as questionable
with a sore forearm.
The forecast for ProPlayer Stadium calls for a high of 83F and a low of 67F
with a 0% chance for rain. Weather shouldn't be a factor in this game.
Miami has been struggling in this phase, as have the Rams - this looks like
an even matchup to us.
Philadelphia's Passing Attack vs. The Cleveland
Defense (Neutral Matchup)
Donovan McNabb has fallen off his torrid pace in recent weeks, and it showed
last week when he threw for 14/26 for 209 yards, 0 TDs and 1 interception against
the Carolina Panthers. It's hardly time to panic, though, as he is still the
#3 fantasy QB in the land, averaging 23.84 fantasy points per game (112/170
for 1377 yards, 9 TDs and only 2 interceptions to date). As we pointed out last
week, the Panther's soft run defense made a slow fantasy outing likely (the
Eagles punched in 2 scores on the ground). Terrell Owens leads the team with
42 targets for 30/487/6 and is the clear fantasy star on this squad of receivers.
The other scoring threat to date has been TE L.J. Smith, with 16 for 10/150/2.
Cleveland's pass defense is middling when it comes to yards allowed (averaging
218.2 per contest), but stiff in the redzone, with only 3 scores surrendered
to date (tied for 1st in the NFL). Carson Palmer managed 20/36 for 148 yards,
1 TD and 1 interception against this bunch last week - they are definitely putting
the clamps on opposing receivers so far. Over the past 4 weeks, the team averages
207 yards and .5 TDs per game. Chad Johnson couldn't seem to wiggle free on
most downs last week, despite the now-infamous Pepto-Bismol prank he played
on the Cleveland defense (or perhaps because of it).
Philadelphia says that they are good to go in the injury department, as is
Cleveland.
The forecast calls for a gorgeous autumn day (65F for a high, 50F for a low,
with a 10% chance for rain). Weather shouldn't be a factor in the game if the
forecast holds up.
Philadelphia has a powerful offense - Cleveland fields a solid pass defense.
That sounds about even to us.
Detroit's Passing Attack vs. The New York
Giants' Defense (Neutral Matchup)
Joey Harrington had an off week last week - only 12/23 for 101 yards passing,
1 TD and 1 interception - but his #1 target was standing on the sidelines rather
than chasing Harrington passes. Obviously, Harrington owners need to pay special
attention to Roy William's status as game time approaches this week. The team
was unable to do much (even playing the ultra-generous Green Bay D) without
Williams in the mix. In William's absence, Az-Zahir Hakim was the #1 receiver
on the team, with 7 targets for 4/49/1 - something to remember if Hakim is on
your squad.
The Giant's pass defense is mediocre this season, averaging 204 yards allowed
per game (10th in the NFL) but giving away 9 TDs to date - not too strong. Dallas
only managed 15/25 for 126 yards, 1 TD and 1 interception against the squad
in their most recent game, though - the Giants were strong in this phase before
their bye week, at least (but Dallas racked up 166 yards rushing in that game,
so don't be too impressed - the Cowboys didn't need to throw a lot).
Detroit lists Williams as questionable due to his sore ankle, as is fellow
WR Az-Zahir Hakim (ankle). New York is coming off a bye, and should be well
rested - they list no one on Wednesday's injury report.
The forecast for Giants Stadium calls for a high of 61F and a low of 49F with
a 30% chance of rain. If the rain comes down hard at game time, the field could
get sloppy and the ball wet - not optimum conditions for scoring.
The success, or lack thereof, of Detroit's attack is dependent upon Williams'
presence in the lineup. If he can play, this is a good matchup. If not, we see
it as tough for Harrington to do much in terms of fantasy points. On balance,
as of midweek, this is a neutral matchup.
Baltimore's Passing Attack vs. The Buffalo
Defense (Neutral Matchup)
Kyle Boller is not a fantasy star, with 62/109 for 650 yards, 2 TDs and 5 interceptions
to his credit thus far in 2004 (36th-ranked fantasy QB in fantasy points per
game, with an average of 9.74). This team is about running the ball and playing
defense, with passing a distant 3rd. The Ravens' best healthy wide receiver,
Randy Hymes, ranks 42nd in the fantasy WR ranks with 16/226/2 receiving, but
he has been strong some weeks in the absence of Todd Heap and Travis Taylor
(only 2/34/0 in the most recent game, though). There just isn't much to get
excited about here.
Buffalo is in the middle of the NFL pack at defending the pass, allowing an
average of 207.8 passing yards per game (14th in the NFL) and 6 scores to date.
The limp Miami attack only managed a 12/23 for 136 yards, 1 TD and 1 interception
performance last week, though. 6 passing scores in 5 games is not terribly bad
as far as pass defense goes.
Buffalo has been doing without CB Troy Vincent (knee, out) lately. S Lawyer
Milloy is questionable (forearm) Baltimore comes off a bye week and lists TE
Todd Heap (doubtful) and WR Travis Taylor (questionable). Injuries are a factor
for both of these squads right now.
The forecast for M&T Bank Stadium calls for a high of 66F and a low of
53F, with a 30% chance of rain. If the precipitation is coming down hard at
game-time, the field and ball could get slick, making footing and ball-handling
an issue.
Baltimore just isn't a strong fantasy squad in this phase, while the Bills
are mediocre in this phase. That sounds ugly but even to us - we call it a toss-up.
Oakland's Passing Attack vs. The New Orleans
Defense (Neutral Matchup)
Oakland's passing attack is struggling with Kerry Collins at the helm. In his
chances, Collins has put up 80/140 for 846 yards, 2 TDs and 8 interceptions
(2 fumbles lost, too). Jerry Rice is a Seahawk now, so what few yards and TDs
there are to be had will be distributed among Jerry Porter (19 targets for 9/90/0
over the past 3 weeks), Doug Gabriel (14 for 4/61/0), and Ronald Curry (22 for
17/166/0), as the most likely targets. However, TE Courtney Anderson is the
only receiver to have scored during that 3-week span (10 for 8/109/1).
New Orleans was totally destroyed by Daunte Culpepper last week, torched for
26/37 for 425 yards, 5 TDs and 2 interceptions (with Randy Moss out for the
second half of the game). It was an embarrassing defensive performance, to say
the least. The Saints are now 29th in the NFL averaging 263 passing yards allowed
per week (9 scores to date). Over the past 4 weeks, the average is 286 yards
and 2.0 TDs per game. That's pretty poor, folks.
Oakland lost Rich Gannon for the season (officially) this week. WRs Ronald
Curry (hamstring) and Doug Gabriel (hamstring) are questionable. New Orleans
lists CB Ashley Ambrose as doubtful (knee).
The forecast for Network Associates Coliseum in calls for a high of 65F and
a low of 53F with a 30% chance for precipitation - that sounds like good football
weather, unless the rain comes down hard at game time.
Both units are weak in this phase, making this an even matchup.
New York Jets' Passing Attack vs. The New
England Defense (Tough Matchup)
The Jets just haven't needed to throw the ball much with Curtis Martin's resurgence,
and Santana Moss has been struggling to get on the field due to a bad hamstring.
Those circumstances have led to a lackluster fantasy season for Chad Pennington
(107/152 for 1151 yards, 5 TDs and 2 interceptions, 21st among fantasy QBs in
fantasy points per game to date). Despite the missed time, Moss is still the
top Jet WR (47th in fantasy points per game with 11/231/0 on the season) - but
that isn't saying much. Moss, Justin McCareins and Wayne Chrebet all have donuts
in the TD column to date. Needless to say, fantasy points are very rare in these
parts, folks.
New England fields the league's 22nd ranked pass defense in terms of yards
allowed (225.8 per game to date in 2004), but have yielded only 4 passing scores
so far (tied for second-least in the NFL to date). Matt Hasselbeck threw for
349 yards against the Patriots last week (atypically high), but didn't toss
a TD and also threw 2 interceptions during the game. The Patriots have allowed
an average of only less than 1 TD per game over the past 4 weeks (but 256 yards,
well off the seasonal pace).The Patriots have 19 sacks (3rd most in the NFL)
- the Jets aren't too susceptible to pass pressure, though, ranking 2nd (tie)
in the NFL with only 6 sacks given up. Eugene Wilson was a top IDP DB last week,
with 11 solo tackles, and 1 fumble recovery.
New York lists Moss as probable to play this week (he missed the game last
week). New England says that CB Tyrone Poole is questionable (knee).
The forecast for Gillette Stadium calls for a high of 59F and a low of 43F,
with a 30% chance for precipitation. If the rain comes down hard at game time,
the ball and the field could get slick and that would impact both offenses.
The Jets have weapons but just don't throw to them in the redzone to date,
while the Patriots are a stingy pass defense - this looks like a tough week
to own Jets' receivers.
Cleveland's Passing Attack vs. The Philadelphia
Defense (Tough Matchup)
Jeff Garcia was on target last week, turning in a top-5 fantasy performance
(3rd in the NFL with 16/23 for 310 yards, 4 TDs and 2 interceptions passing).
He tied the record for longest TD pass (99 yards to Andre' Davis) - it was all
good for the Browns in this phase last week. One concern, though, is that Andre'
Davis hurt his big toe last week. The Browns traded for Antonio Bryant with
Dallas (giving up Quincy Morgan). Will Bryant develop into a top target for
Garcia? We think it's certainly possible, depending on how quickly he can get
comfortable with his new teammates It will be interesting to see how good a
fit Bryant is this Sunday.
Philadelphia has an aggressive pass defense that pressures opposing QBs mercilessly
(20 sacks to date, tops in the NFL). They are 23rd in yards allowed (averaging
226.4 per contest), but have only surrendered 5 scores so far. Jake Delhomme
had a miserable game against this bunch last week, with 24/42 for 205 yards,
1 TD and 4 interceptions (one of which was returned for a TD by CB Lito Sheppard).
They are a tough team to play.
Cleveland lists Davis as questionable to play. CBs Roderick Hood (Achilles)
and Dexter Wynn (hamstring) are probable for the Eagles.
The forecast calls for a gorgeous autumn day (65F for a high, 50F for a low,
with a 10% chance for rain). Weather shouldn't be a factor in the game if the
forecast holds up.
Cleveland faces a stern test at home this week.
San Diego's Passing Attack vs. The Carolina
Defense (Tough Matchup)
San Diego's passing attack took a blow this week when the team learned that
Reche Caldwell has been lost for the season due to a torn ligament in his right
knee. Caldwell was second on the team with 29 targets for 18/310/3 receiving
(TE Antonio Gates leads the team with 51 targets for 37/422/3 - he's also the
2nd best fantasy TE around, with an average of 10.03 fantasy points per game
this year). Tampa Bay traded their holdout WR Keenan McCardell to San Diego
on Tuesday, but how close McCardell is to game-shape after such a long hiatus
from the field remains to be seen. Largely in Caldwell's absence last week (he
saw 1 target for 1/9/0 in the game), Eric Parker saw 7 balls for 6/76/1 receiving
while Gates was most-thrown-to with 8 targets for 6/80/0. Drew Brees continued
his solid play with 23/31 for 227 yards, 1 TD and 1 interception in the close
loss to Atlanta.
Carolina looks like a shambles on defense this season overall, but they are
actually pretty tough vs. The pass, holding Donovan McNabb and company to 14/26
for 209 yards, 0 TDs and 1 interception on the day. The team averages only 174.6
passing yards allowed per game, with a mere 3 passing scores surrendered to
date. Some, but not all, of that stinginess is due to their extreme softness
vs. The run (30th in the NFL at 143.4 rushing yards allowed per game), but in
fantasy all you need to know is that the Panthers aren't giving up a lot of
yards or scores in this phase of the game for whatever reason. Over the past
4 weeks, they average only .7 TDs and 191 yards given up.
Aside from Caldwell, the Chargers list WR Tim Dwight (toe, probable). The Panthers
say S Colin Branch is probable (thumb).
This game is to be played at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte - the forecast
calls for a high of 76F and a low of 51F, with a 30% chance for rain. If the
rain comes down hard at game time, the field and ball could get slick and harder
to handle.
Carolina is tough to pass on, while the Chargers are going to be adjusting
to life without Reche Caldwell this week - this looks like a difficult matchup
for Brees and company.
Seattle's Passing Attack vs. The Arizona
Defense (Tough Matchup)
Seattle has dropped two games in a row, and it's largely due to the dropsies
on the part of Koren Robinson and Darrell Jackson. Robinson just hasn't been
getting a handle on the ball (perhaps he's distracted by talk of his looming
suspension for violating the league's substance abuse policy - no official word
yet on when or if that will happen). He turned 13 chances into 9/150/0 last
week, but should have had an even bigger day. Darrell Jackson was even worse,
with a mere 2 receptions on 11 chances for 40 yards. Pretty poor. The team has
traded for the legendary Jerry Rice this week, and he came to the team only
after assurances that Rice will see the ball a good bit - it remains to be seen
if that means more or less success for the other receivers on the team, but
they will likely see less chances due to Rice's arrival. Matt Hasselbeck couldn't
find the endzone last week, tossing 27/50 for 349 yards, 0 TDs and 2 interceptions
vs. The Patriots.
Arizona was shelled by Tim Rattay and company in their latest outing (38/57
for 417 yards, 2 TDs and 0 interceptions). The team is usually much better than
that, averaging 239.4 passing yards allowed per contest (27th in the NFL, now)
but surrendering only 5 TDs to date. They average only .7 passing TDs allowed
per game over the past 4 weeks, and 239 yards. 400+ yards allowed is definitely
an aberration for this team.
Arizona comes into the game off a bye week, but lists CB Duane Starks (shoulder,
probable). Bobby Engram has a sprained ankle and probably won't be able to play
for Seattle (questionable).
The forecast for Sun Devil Stadium calls for a high of 80F and a low of 61F
with a 10% chance for precipitation - a fine day for a game of football is on
tap in the desert.
The Seahawks are struggling to score in this phase of the game lately, and
Arizona isn't very giving when it comes to points most weeks. This looks like
a tough matchup for the reeling Seahawks.
Kansas City's Passing Attack vs. The Atlanta
Defense (Tough Matchup)
Trent Green topped the 300-yard mark last week (23/33 for 315 yards, 2 TDs
and 1 interception), which slotted him at #6 among all fantasy QBs last week
(22.8 fantasy points). Tony Gonzalez led all receivers with 9 targets for 6/81/1,
while Eddie Kennison was #3 on the team with 6 targets for 3/61/0 in his return
to the lineup (Johnnie Morton was #2 with 8 for 7/111/0). Priest Holmes caught
the other TD. It was a fine fantasy outing for the entire unit.
Atlanta's defense is giving up a healthy amount of yardage this season (ranking
21st in the NFL allowing 222.8 passing yards per game) in this phase of the
game, but they are tough to score on, with only 5 passing TDs allowed to date.
Over the past 4 weeks, they average only .5 passing scores and 205 yards allowed.
Drew Brees and company managed 227 passing yards, 1 TD and 1 interception last
week - right on pace for this unit. Atlanta is great at pressuring the opposing
QB this year, and they are tied for 1st in the NFL with 20 sacks to date. KC
is middling, with 14 sacks allowed (tie-12th most in the NFL).
KC comes into the game fairly healthy, with TE Tony Gonzalez probable despite
a sore foot, although TE Kris Wilson is still sidelined (broken leg). The Falcons
hope to have CB DeAngelo Hall (hip, probable) for the first time this year,
and expect fellow CB Jason Webster to play, too (knee, probable). CB Aaron Beasley
is doubtful (foot). S Cory Hall is questionable to go (foot).
The forecast for Arrowhead Stadium calls for a high of 66F and a low of 48F
with a 10% chance of rain. A good day for a football game is coming down the
pike.
Atlanta makes things tough on opposing passers, and KC will feel the pressure
this weekend. This is a slightly tough matchup for Green and company.
Buffalo's Passing Attack vs. The Baltimore
Defense (Bad Matchup)
Drew Bledsoe played a decent game vs. The Dolphins' tough secondary last week,
with 15/28 for 212 yards, 1 TD and 0 interceptions to his credit. In an encouraging
development, the team only gave up 1 sack and kept Jason Taylor out of the equation
- quite a success, considering that Buffalo is tied for 1st in the NFL with
20 sacks allowed this season. Not surprisingly, Eric Moulds led receivers with
8 targets for 5/99/0, while rarely used TE Mark Campbell (9/88/2 on the season)
was second with 7 targets for 4/36/1.
Baltimore's secondary is in the top tier in the NFL, with an average of 189.2
passing yards allowed per game (7th in the NFL), and only 5 scores given away
to date. Over the past 4 weeks, the averages are 188 yards and .7 TDs - lock
step with the seasonal average. In week 5 (the Raven's last game) Mark Brunell
eked out 83 passing yards, 1 TD and 1 interception in the face of Baltimore
- they are very tough in this phase of the game.
The Ravens come off a bye-week healthy, while the Bills list J.P. Losman as
out (broken leg).
The forecast for M&T Bank Stadium calls for a high of 66F and a low of
53F, with a 30% chance of rain. If the precipitation is coming down hard at
game-time, the field and ball could get slick, making footing and ball-handling
an issue.
Bledsoe and company are starting to do some good things, but don't look for
much against the stout Ravens.
Chicago's Passing Attack vs. The Tampa Bay
Defense (Bad Matchup)
Jonathan Quinn followed up a decent game two weeks ago with a stinker this
past week - 10/22 for 65 yards, 0 TDs and 1 interception meant a horrible fantasy
outing for the entire squad in this phase. There just isn't much else to say,
except that we believe it can't get much worse for the Bears this week. That
isn't saying much, though. Look elsewhere for your fantasy starters this week.
If Quinn's poor showing last week wasn't bad enough, this week he faces Tampa
Bay in Tampa. Gulp. The Bus are 4th in the NFL allowing only 158.2 passing yards
per game on average, with 7 scores given away to date. St. Louis' high octane
attack put up 18/30 for 264 yards, 2 TDs and 1 interception on this bunch in
an atypical game last Monday - but nobody confuses the Bears for the Rams in
this phase of the game.
Both teams enjoy relatively good health, with no new injuries to report.
The forecast for Raymond James Stadium calls for a high of 83F and a low of
67F with a 0% chance of rain - it should be a great day for a football game.
This will be a very tough game for Quinn and company.
Cincinnati's Passing Attack vs. The Denver
Defense (Bad Matchup)
Carson Palmer is a work in progress - there's nothing unusual about a young
QB struggling to learn the intricacies of quarterbacking a pro team. Last week,
he managed 20/36 for 148 yards, 1 TD and 1 interception against the Browns (Chad
Johnson's play was a huge letdown, 3/37/0, but he led the team in yards - in
all, 9 receivers caught balls that day - Palmer was definitely sharing what
little wealth there was last week).
Denver's pass defense is not a thing of beauty this year - they are very stingy
in both yards allowed (137.5 per game, 2nd in the NFL), and TDs allowed (only
3, tied for least in the NFL). Over the past 4 weeks, they are right on pace,
giving up just 141 passing yards per game and .5 TDs on average. Kerry Collins
managed 15/31 for 136 yards, 0 TDs and 1 interception last week vs. this hard-nosed
secondary. It just isn't easy to throw on the Broncos.
Cincinnati lists Peter Warrick as doubtful due to his bad shin. Denver says
that CBs Willie Middlebrooks (hamstring) and Lenny Walls (shoulder) are questionable,
while CB Roc Alexander (finger) is probable to play.
The forecast for Paul Brown Stadium calls for a high of 68F and a low of 42F,
with a 10% chance of rain on Monday night. It should be a nice, cool evening
to play some football.
Cincinnati is in for a long game on Monday night if the Broncos play up to
their ability.
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