What follows are single halves of Player Face-offs. For a myriad of reasons, the other half was not submitted. Rather than let quality content go to waste, we present a collection of quick glances at various players.

Chris Smith on RB Chris Brown - Tennessee Titans

When I first took the downside of Chris Brown, I believed Eddie George would be re-signed and would steal significant touches away from Brown. However George was cut from the team when he refused to take a pay cut and Brown is shooting up the draft boards. Obviously my thoughts on the entire situation have changed with the news but perhaps now more than ever, people are overvaluing Brown and what he is going to accomplish in 2004. The Titans went out and immediately signed Antowain Smith, formerly of the Patriots and Bills to fill the gap left by George and that leads me to believe the Titans are 100% comfortable with having Brown run the ball 20+ times per game and Smith may step into George's shoes and get 10+ carries per game in spelling Brown and that could really hinder his effectiveness behind an offensive line that is average at best when it comes to run blocking.

Reasons to worry

• The Titans offense hasn't been overly effective running the ball in the past few seasons (YPC has been 3.3, 3.8 and 3.8 over the last few seasons)



• The Titans have become a pass-first football team thanks to the growth of Steve McNair and Derrick Mason



• Chris Brown is unproven during the regular season (only 221 yards last season)

Bottom Line
I like Brown with George being removed from the picture but I'll play devil's advocate nonetheless. The red flags for myself would be the poor rushing performance of the entire team over the past few season, the signing of Antowain Smith and the Titans evolution into an explosive passing team. Brown fits in as a great 3rd round draft pick but taking him in round two represents a risk to your roster.

Will Grant on WR Chris Chambers - Miami Dolphins

Chris Chambers was a good prospect as a fantasy WR before everything collapsed in Miami. He has led the team in receiving for the last 3 years, and posted impressive numbers in 2003 with 64 receptions for 963 yards and 11 TDs. He's has great athletic ability and good speed, and he is capable of making the touch catch when it counts.

The Miami passing attack became even more of a focus when Ricky Williams retired. Travis Minor leads the crowd of inexperienced and unknown RBs who will try to carry the load for Miami this season. Unfortunately for the Dolphins, these guys don't scare anyone, and they are going to need to rely on their passing game to win games. As Chambers is the key to that attack, that means more opportunities for him.

During the offseason, the Dolphins acquired David Boston to help take some of the pressure off of Chambers. But Boston went down to an injury in practice and is done for the season. Once again the burden will be on Chambers to carry the passing game for Miami.

To compensate for this, the Dolphins traded away one of their best players to acquire Chicago receiver Marty Booker. Booker is a talented WR, with solid hands and good route running ability. Booker will be the underneath guy, and Chambers will stretch the field: A great combination that should mean solid numbers for both of them.

TE Randy McMichael is also a great pass catching TE. Between him and Booker, Chambers should see less double teams and really have a chance to work down the field. His great athletic ability makes him a prime candidate in the red zone as well. If Miami can ever figure out who is going to throw the ball, Chambers should probably finish in the top 15 this year for fantasy WRs.

Michael Brown on TE Dallas Clark - Indianapolis Colts

Dallas Clark is being drafted, on average, in the 10th round. His teammate and tight end counterpart, Marcus Pollard, is going in the 13th round. If they were both wide receivers, I'd say fine. But considering both are tight ends, something doesn't add up.

Either one would be a fine fantasy tight end, under one condition - if the other one were to miss a significant amount of time. But since you can't predict that sort of thing, all we have to go on is the fact that both are here, and they will hurt each other's stat lines.

Consider this: Dallas Clark was a first round pick two years ago, and had a terrific camp. He came with much fanfare and showed several glimpses of his outstanding talent. But it was only in glimpses. He spent far too much time off the field due to injury, and the second injury (a broken leg) has to be at least something of a concern despite good reports in the offseason.

Pollard, meanwhile, kept right on plugging along, recording a solid 40 catch, 541 yard, 3 touchdown season. It was similarly in line with what he had always done for the most part. It is sort of curious to see Clark be drafted so far ahead of Pollard. I'll grant you, his ceiling is much higher and upside is all anyone cares about on draft day. But it's sort of odd to see Clark going ahead of the likes of Freddie Jones, who has the utmost job security in Arizona, with a much better track record to boot.

What it boils down to is this: more than likely, neither Clark nor Pollard will represent the value their owners are hoping for, because of the simple fact that there are only so many opportunities for each guy. Clark should post the better numbers and have the better season, but he's being drafted as a top-10 tight end and that seems a little rich for my blood.

Cathy Fazio on TE Alge Crumpler - Atlanta Falcons

If you are looking for a solid tight end who has the potential to become an elite tight end this year, look no further than Alge Crumpler. He is definitely not a sleeper; Footballguys has him currently projected as the fifth tight end on the board. But Crumpler will be available in fantasy drafts after the trio of Tony Gonzalez, Todd Heap and Jeremy Shockey has been taken.

Despite the loss of Michael Vick at quarterback for most of the season in 2003, Alge Crumpler still put up respectable numbers last year with 44 receptions for 552 yards and 3 touchdowns last year. With a healthy Vick back at the helm, the expectations for Crumpler can be exponentially increased.

New head coach Jim Mora has brought a revamped game plan to the Falcons, the west coast offense. Crumpler will prove to be a vital puzzle piece in this revitalized offense. He is surrounded by talented players who were also adversely impacted by Vick's injury last season. Peerless Price is now in his second season with the Falcons and should be better adjusted this year. Lanky Brian Finneran is now healthy and should be a contributing factor alongside Price. And the one two punch of running backs Warrick Dunn and T. J. Duckett will open up more opportunities for Crumpler.

So if you are looking to wait a round or two to take a tight end after the triumvirate of Gonzalez, Heap and Shockey are gone, Crumpler is your man. A healthy quarterback, revamped offense, and talented supporting players will all lead to solid production this year from Crumpler.

Andy Hicks on WR Donald Driver - Green Bay Packers

Every now and then a receiver comes out of nowhere, has one good season, and then goes back to nowhere. I hope that is not the case with Donald Driver, but after last years performance it is a distinct possibility. Big things were expected after his 70-1064-9 season in 2002. Most people who drafted Driver last year expected #1 production, they ended up with #5 receiver figures. This year you should get him cheaper (as your 3rd or 4th receiver), but even then I would be wary.

Donald Driver was the #1 receiver at Green Bay last year in name, targets and receptions. This resulted in stats of 52-621-2, including 7 games with 2 or less receptions. He finished the season ranked as the 51st receiver. Brett Favre threw 32 touchdowns last season, Donald Driver scored 2 of them. Five receivers scored more. Not good.

In 2002 Driver was fearless. After missing an early game last year with a neck injury he seemed to have lost his aggressiveness catching in traffic. Can he regain that fearlessness or is it gone forever?

Looking further ahead to this year. Ferguson and Walker are being referred to as the 'Dynamic Duo'. "Why not?" Packers wide receivers coach Ray Sherman said "They've both done nothing but improve since they got here. And what's exciting is they're still just getting started. The best is yet to come for both those guys."

Driver was asked how he'd handle being #3:
"I don't know. I don't want to get into that, in this offense it really doesn't matter who's this number receiver or who's that number. When we spread the ball around on offense, it doesn't really matter because guys are happy. As long as we're winning, I think guys are happy."

Driver is being drafted as a #3 fantasy receiver. Why? Based on his 2002 form? This is 2004 and barring injury to Ferguson or Walker, Driver will be the third option at Green Bay. Good enough to warrant a Top 40 slot? I don't think so.

Mark Wimer on WR Robert Ferguson - Green Bay Packers

Robert Ferguson is a perfectly adequate NFL receiver who plays for a pretty darn good football team. He just signed a contract extension with Green Bay about a week ago and is expected to start opposite Javon Walker in 2004, shoving Donald Driver into the #3 role (supposedly). As the #2 in Green Bay, I don't expect great things from Ferguson in 2004 for the following reasons:

1. Donald Driver was battling with a neck injury for most of last season - he will give Ferguson a run for his money as far as touches go during 2004, and I see the two basically equally sharing touches with each racking up 600-700 yards (with Ferguson seeing 1-2 more TDs (4-5 for Driver vs. 6-7 for Ferguson).



2. Brett Favre has a history of distributing the ball around to his receivers since the 2000 season. Since 2000, only one Packer has exceeded 1000 yards receiving in the #1 WR role (Donald Driver in 2002, with 70/1064/9). The top #2 WR performance since 2000 was Bill Schroeder's 65/999/4 showing in 2000 (Antonio Freeman led the team in FP that season with 62/912/9). This season, with 3 legitimate and experienced pro wide receivers on the field for the Packers, I expect to see the wealth shared amongst the three, with Walker leading the team.



3. Ferguson, in his first two seasons with the team, has missed one game per season with nagging injuries, with a career-best season of 38/520/4. We haven't seen enough from him yet to expect a top-40 WR performance - his career average of 13.6 yards-per-catch is respectable but not topnotch.

"Respectable but not topnotch." - a phrase that aptly describes Robert Ferguson - indicates the level of performance that he should bring to the table in 2004.

David Yudkin on RB DeShaun Foster - Carolina Panthers

Take a Number and Wait Your Turn

Hard to Produce as a Backup
Foster is in a difficult situation in Carolina. His playing time and production rests more on Stephen Davis' health than on Foster's own skills and abilities.

Davis' hard-nosed running style has forced him to miss a game or two here and there over his career. Last year was no different, as Davis missed 2 games and saw limited action in some others. However, he did compile 7 games with 100+ yards rushing, 1444 rushing yards, and 8 TD. It's hard to find fault with numbers like that.

Less Productive Than Davis
Like in all positions, Foster's other way into the lineup would be to out produce the #1 guy. On that front, Davis had a 4.5 ypc to Foster's 3.8 ypc. This is not to suggest that Foster was unproductive, only that he did not go gangbusters when he had a chance to get in the lineup.

Davis' Health Concerns Slightly Exaggerated
Some people will say that Foster has additional value because Davis has missed some time and should be considered a major injury risk. However, in the past 5 seasons, Davis has only missed 9 games, which is less than the 2 game per season average for RB. Foster, on the other hand, has already missed an entire season due to injury.

Bottom Line
Foster will just have to wait for Davis to be less productive or get injured. Davis is now 30, so the chances of either or both of those occurring will begin to increase from here on out. But for now, Davis will still be the man in Carolina.

Marc Levin on RB Ahman Green - Green Bay Packers

I don't think anyone can justifiably attack Ahman Green as a top 5 overall pick except to say he had a "career year" in 2003 and will fall back to historical averages. That's fine - he had his lowest number of catches last year since he came to Green Bay. If he returns to "normal" will he bump to 65+ instead of only 50? Even if you think the Packers are Brett Favre's team (a contention that is simply belied by the team's public stand that they are a running team now), if Favre throws more, doesn't that mean Green will catch the ball more. He scored 5 TDs on 50 catches last year. How many will he score with more catches?

Some folks say 5 TDs on 50 catches were an aberration given Priest's 70+ catches and no receiving TDs and Tomlinson's 100 catches netting only 4 receiving TDs. Green caught two of his TDs from just outside the 20, and the other three were from inside the 15. Green is obviously used extensively as both a runner and a receiver when the team is getting close to the opponent's goal line.

Folks point to Green's career high 5.3 YPC. Green could return to his 4.7 career average and, with 350 carries again, he still rushes for over 1600 yards. Green is a phenomenal talent - the Batman-shirt wearing back can score from anywhere on the field (he had 45, 65, 66, and 98 yard TD runs in 2003). He also plays very well against his division (he averaged 111 rush yards and a TD per game against the NFC West). That's good news since Green plays three division opponents in the last four weeks of the years - the fantasy playoffs.

The fact is that with an intact offensive Green has finished as the #5, #3, and #2 fantasy back. In 2001, devastating offensive line injuries and his own injuries caused a severe dip. Unless you are comfortable predicting injuries to offensive linemen, keep Green in your top 5 and be perfectly happy if you land him.

Andy Hicks on WR Joe Horn - New Orleans Saints

Joe Horn is going to end up as someone's #1 receiver. He will be a good #2 but not your main guy.

Risk Factors

1. Age
   Receivers generally decline after 30. Examining this Doug Drinen article, it is rare for non Hall of Famers to merit #1 receiver status at Horn's age (32). Jerry Rice, Cris Carter and Tim Brown will be Hall of Famers, Joe Horn will not.
   
   Non (or borderline) Hall of Fame receivers aged 32 or older who finished the season as a #1 in the last 10 years:
   • Keenan McCardell (2003-10th age 33)
   
   
   
   • Jimmy Smith (2001-6th 32)
   
   
   
   • Ed McCaffrey (2000-8th 32)
   
   
   
   • Irving Fryar (1996-5th 34 & 1997-10th 35)
   
   
   
   • Henry Ellard (1994-8th 33)
   
   
   
   Can Horn do it? Possibly, but I'd bet against it.



2. Skill
   Last year Horn fell in all major categories except one, touchdowns. His reception total dropped. His yardage figure dropped by over 300 yards. His yards per catch was a career low of 12.5. Further decline would make Horn a borderline 2nd Receiver. Expecting 10 Touchdowns again is optimistic.



3. Job Stability
   Joe Horn was rumored to have been a cap casualty this year, but that didn't happen. The contract extension signed last year sees Horn on a salary of $700,000. Next year that escalates to $4.8 million (including a $1 million roster bonus). Odds are Horn won't be returning for another season.



4. #1 Receiver
   The Saints would expect to see Donte' Stallworth develop into their main guy this year. "This is my time now. People have expectations for me, but no one has bigger expectations than I do, and I aim to meet them." If Stallworth is to meet these expectations, don't expect Horns numbers to remain the same.

The case for Horn revolves around his consistency. Last year saw the first signs of Horn's decline, this year that will continue. The FBG projections are close to my own, I'd chip a little off, leaving him in the 16-20 bracket of wide receivers. Definitely not good enough to be your #1.

Jason Wood on WR Darrell Jackson - Seattle Seahawks

Darrell Jackson emerged last season with 68 receptions for 1,137 yards and nine touchdowns; good for a 9th place finish among fantasy WRs. This offseason, the Seahawks quickly signed Jackson to a new six-year $25 million contract that included an $8 million signing bonus. It's clear that Jackson is being counted on as a major playmaker in one of the league's youngest and most dynamic offenses.

Did you know that Jackson has more receptions, yards and touchdowns than anyone else from the 2000 WR draft class, including Laveranues Coles - someone frequently listed ahead of him in fantasy rankings?

It's difficult to find a reason not to like Jackson's situation entering 2004:

• Coming off career highs in yardage (1,137), touchdowns (9) and yards-per-reception (16.7)



• He's the most targeted receiver (134 targets in 2003) on one of the league's best passing teams



• His quarterback, Matt Hasselbeck, is coming off his first Pro Bowl season and is considered among the league's elite young passers



• His receiving partner, Koren Robinson, is a legitimate WR in his own right forcing defenses to not overplay Jackson



• The team's rushing attack, lead by Shaun Alexander, is too potent to allow defenses to key on the pass

One area of concern for both Jackson and his receiving mates is the tendency to drop passes. Darrell Jackson drops too many passes (24 in the last two seasons) and it's been a major focus of the offseason training program in Seattle. Cutting his drops in half could mean the difference between his first top 5 season and another solid-yet-unspectacular one. Either way, Jackson is a legitimate fantasy WR1 who's being drafted as a WR2 (14th WR selected in early 12 team mocks). That's the definition of "value."

David Yudkin on RB Thomas Jones - Chicago Bears

Thomas Jones has proven he is not a bonafide starting RB and is better suited as a backup, a role he should again be assuming in Chicago before the season is over.

The Bears are making a mistake in starting Jones over Anthony Thomas. The A-Train has out-produced Jones across the board in every measurable category on offense. Here's the run down over their careers:

A-Train has run by make shift offensive lines that consistently have been injured, Jones has run behind a mammoth Cardinals line (and Buccaneers) that have been predominantly healthy and efficient. Jones also has twice failed to beat out Michael Pittman to be a team's starting RB. Here are Pittman's career numbers in the same categories: 3.8 ypc, 8.0 ypr, 0.18 TD/gm, 4 games of 100+ rushing yards).

The Bears will find out soon enough that Thomas Jones is not the answer in Chicago. I fully expect that Anthony Thomas will win back the starting RB job halfway through the season (or maybe even sooner) when Jones struggles.

With Jones ranked as our #27 RB, he won't come close to that if he doesn't remain as the Bears' starter. Personally, I don't think Jones will come close to that ranking once he goes back to part-time or backup duty.

Cathy Fazio on WR Brandon Lloyd - San Francisco 49ers

The San Francisco offense is young and unproven. Other than journeyman Curtis Conway, most of the offensive starters are very green. Tim Rattay has only started in 3 NFL games in his 4 year career. Kevan Barlow who will now start at running back previously split carries with Garrison Hearst. The two veteran wide receivers on the team Cedrick Wilson and Brandon Lloyd were last year playing behind Tai Streets and Terrell Owens.

Brandon Lloyd began his NFL career very inauspiciously with 14 receptions for 212 yards and 2 touchdowns. Nothing really to get very excited about there. But it was his athleticism and ability to make tough catches that made Lloyd a standout. He made an amazing sideline reception last year and had the presence of mind to drag his feet as he fell out of bounds.

And of all of the wide receivers on the team, he currently at the top of the depth chart. Conway is aging and new to the team. Woods is a rookie. Cedrick Wilson has just never been very impressive. At this point Brandon Lloyd is looking like the best receiver on the team.

With so many question marks surround the San Francisco offense, it would not be wise to spend a high draft pick to acquire Lloyd. But it is Lloyd's talent that makes him an intriguing pick late in a draft. A player to be stashed on your bench in anticipation that the Forty-Niners show some promise.

Michael Brown on RB Curtis Martin - New York Jets

It's no secret that Curtis Martin is no longer an elite fantasy running back. He has been in decline for two years, and there is no reason to believe that will stop. Martin just turned 31 on May 1. Considering most running backs begin breaking down right around age 30, it's safe to say that we have already seen Martin's best days, and they are not in the present. Not only that, but he is in the midst of a startling fantasy slide that actually began several years ago. While he has remained a productive 'real-life' NFL back, he can no longer be counted on as a starting fantasy back.

In 2001, Martin posted over 1,800 total yards to go along with ten touchdowns. The following year, slowed by an ankle injury, Martin barely reached 1,000 yards but still managed to score 9 times. In the 2003 campaign, a seemingly over-the-hill Martin struggled early on but rebounded in the second half to manage another high-yardage output with 1,308 on the ground and 1,570 overall. The big black mark, however? A paltry two touchdowns. Martin had never scored fewer than 5 touchdowns in any season before, and there was a distinct reason for it. Head coach Herman Edwards preferred LaMont Jordan near the goal line. While Jordan had 8 goal line carries (converting 3), Martin got just 3 carries at the goal line all season long. To make matters worse, he didn't score on any of them. In fact, of all NFL backs with at least 35 red zone rushing attempts, Martin had the fewest touchdowns with just 2; other than Troy Hambrick (who had 4), every other back had at least 5. Martin just doesn't get it done in the scoring category. Yards are nice, but touchdowns win championships. The upside on Martin in any given week is that hopefully he'll get you 80 yards but will almost never score. He'll work as a temporary guy, injury fill-in, etc...but he is not my definition of a fantasy starter and shouldn't be drafted as one by any means.

Chris Smith on WR Derrick Mason - Tennessee Titans

Mason has improved in each of the past four seasons with the Titans. His 95 receptions for 1303 receiving yards were both career highs and there is no reason to expect those numbers to go anywhere but up in 2004. He has developed wonderful on-field chemistry with quarterback Steve McNair and Mason gets a lot of passes thrown his way in every football game. Mason had nine games a year ago with over 90 receiving yards and with the Titans high-octane passing now in full-effect; Mason has every opportunity to finish in the top six at the receiver position.

Reasons for optimism

• Mason is a gifted receiver who runs precise routes



• McNair has confidence in Mason and looks his way often



• The Titans have become a passing-first football team thanks to the growth of McNair

Bottom Line
Mason is a great player to grab for your fantasy roster. He isn't as glamorous perhaps as a player such as a Santana Moss or a Laveranues Coles but with his situation in Tennessee, Mason should finish well inside the top ten at the receiver position in 2004. He has a great shot at eclipsing 100 pass receptions this season and his touchdowns could certainly see a (Torry) Holt-like increase this year. Mason makes a great # 1 receiver for a fantasy squad and an unbelievable # 2 so don't hesitate to scoop him up.

Maurile Tremblay on RB Deuce McAllister - New Orleans Saints

I don't have many negative things to say about Deuce McAllister. He has a rare combination of power and speed, he gets the ball a lot, and often does good things with it.

But the same can be said for all of the top running backs in the league. Priest Holmes, LaDainian Tomlinson, Clinton Portis, Ahman Green, Jamal Lewis, Edgerrin James, Shaun Alexander - all are exceptional athletes, and all have been very productive. In fact, all scored more fantasy points per game last year than McAllister.

McAllister's greatest asset is his ability to rack up yards. But four of those other backs - Tomlinson, Portis, Lewis, and Green - averaged more rushing yards and more total yards per game than McAllister. Only Priest Holmes, Edgerrin James, and Shaun Alexander finished behind McAllister in yards per game; but they more than made up for it with their TD production.

It is true that TD production is generally more fickle than yardage. But Priest Holmes and Shaun Alexander have proven their consistency in that area: in the last three years, Alexander has finished second, second, and fifth in rush/rec TDs, while Priest Holmes has finished first in each of the last two years. Edgerrin James, as well, has a history of scoring touchdowns when he's healthy - he was first in 1999 and second in 2000 - and he sure looked healthy at the end of last year as he racked up nine touchdowns in the final seven games. Meanwhile, McAllister's low TD total in 2003 (he scored eight on the season) was not a pure fluke: it's a consequence of the Saints' propensity to keep the ball in Aaron Brooks' hands instead of Deuce McAllister's near the goal line. In the red zone last year, the Saints had the seventh lowest run-pass ratio in the NFL.

I don't believe Deuce McAllister should be the consensus #3 RB behind only Tomlinson and Holmes. A case can be made for preferring each of the RBs discussed above to McAllister, and the case is nearly open-and-shut for several of them.

Michael Brown on RB Willis McGahee - Buffalo Bills

Zero carries, zero yards, zero touchdowns. Those are the career totals for Bills RB Willis McGahee. Keep those numbers in mind when you feel tempted to draft McGahee before you should.

"But McGahee didn't play a single down last year!", you say. That's very true. And why didn't he play a single down? Because he was recovering from probably the most devastating injury for a running back - multiple torn knee ligaments. The fact that he hasn't played in an actual game since January of 2003 should scare off owners, but it's not. They drool over his playmaking ability and seemingly limitless potential. But unless yours is a dynasty league, you should temper your enthusiasm for McGahee in '04.

Studs like Jamal Lewis and Edgerrin James struggled mightily in their respective returns from ACL tears. Granted, McGahee has had much more time to rehab than those two, but is it really a good thing that the knee hasn't been tested in 20 months? And what makes McGahee so different from the litany of running backs who have struggled in their initial year back from an ACL tear? In addition, he's basically a rookie since he never played last year. For all his talents, he doesn't 'know' the NFL game and will have to learn that as he goes along, too.

There is one other giant obstacle McGahee must overcome in order to have much value, and its name is Travis Henry. People are forgetting that Henry is a Pro Bowl-caliber back who went for over 1,300 yards and 10 touchdowns last year.

The fact of the matter is this: McGahee deserves to be drafted in most league setups, especially by the Henry owner in case he suffers an injury. But a lot of people are jumping on the McGahee bandwagon based on one, albeit one spectacular, year of college ball. This is a new game, and he's coming off injury, backing up a stud in his own right, on an offense that no one will call explosive anytime soon. Too many negatives to warrant selecting him where he's going on average.

Maurile Tremblay on QB Steve McNair - Tennessee Titans

Steve McNair was the #3 fantasy QB last year in points per game, behind only Daunte Culpepper and Jeff Garcia -- ahead of Peyton Manning, Michael Vick, Matt Hasselbeck, Donovan McNabb, Trent Green, Aaron Brooks, and everybody else. (And he was #2 behind only Culpepper when counting partial games as partial instead of whole; McNair really played 12.75 games to Garcia's 12.5, though the official counts were 14 and 13, respectively.)

McNair's game has no weakness. He has always been a strong runner; in his seven years as a full-time starter, he has also become an exceptional passer. He is only the 5th QB in NFL history to throw for 20,000 yards and run for 3,000. And he's getting better with age. In 2003, he had his best season yet, throwing for 230 yards a game (a career high), 8.0 yards per attempt (a career high), 24 TDs (a career high), and 7 INTs (a career low as a full-time starter). In his last seven seasons, he's also averaged 425 yards and 4.6 TDs rushing -- not quite Michael Vick territory, but in the general Culpepper/McNabb range. (McNair's rushing yards did plunge down to 138 last year as he was slowed by several foot injuries.)

At times last year McNair had streaks of near perfection. He opened week 3 by completing 9 of 10 passes. In week 4, he completed 15 of 16 passes. In week 6 he completed his last 11 passes in a row. And so it went as he led the Titans to a 12-4 record while remaining one of the more underrated QBs in football -- both fantasy and real.

Should you bet against McNair at the peak of his career? I can't think of any reason to. WR Justin McCareins is gone, but that just means Drew Bennett and Tyrone Calico will play more. RB Chris Brown may replace Eddie George -- and if he proves to be a better receiver out of the backfield, so much the better. Derrick Mason is back. The entire OL is back. McNair is primed for another big year.

Mark Wimer on WR Quincy Morgan - Cleveland Browns

Having lots of options in the passing game is a good thing in the NFL - just ask Super Bowl champion QB Tom Brady - but it doesn't always make for quality fantasy WR performance. Jeff Garcia and the Cleveland Browns figure to have a wealth of options in the passing game this year, with TE Kellen Winslow, Jr. (assuming he signs his contract fairly expeditiously) and WRs Dennis Northcutt, Andre Davis, Andre King and Quincy Morgan all in the mix. However, what's good for a NFL team isn't necessarily good for fantasy owners.

Quincy Morgan is going to feel the squeeze in 2004 - the Browns just re-signed Dennis Northcutt (regardless of all the drama) to a sizable pay increase, and he will be pushing for playing time - which will cost Morgan even more looks in the passing game. Let's not forget that Morgan was the #3 WR on the team in receptions last season (38/516/3), well behind Northcutt's 62/729/2. Also, since the inception of the Butch Davis era, only 1 WR has enjoyed a 1000+ yardage season (Kevin Johnson in 2001). That probably isn't going to change this season, with the talented Winslow around demanding his cut of receptions and yardage.

So, what we see around Quincy Morgan in 2004 is 1). intense competition for the ball among the WRs, 2). a smaller pie of balls for the WR stable to split (thanks to Winslow's presence) and 3). a highly paid back-up (Dennis Northcutt) challenging for playing time and a starting spot. It doesn't look like a good situation for Morgan heading into 2004. 500-600 yards and 3-4 TDs look like his ceiling this season.

Andy Hicks on WR Randy Moss - Minnesota Vikings

Randy Moss is the almost unanimous choice as the #1 receiver . He is coming off new highs in receptions and yardage and equaled his rookie touchdown total.

How can there be any upside?

Upside depends on how he is being ranked and rated for this year. He is generally being selected at the end of the first round of 12 team leagues and the FBG projections are currently 100-1390-13.

Last year Moss finished 5th overall and posted figures of 111-1632-17. Moss clearly has ambitions on improving even further. This off- season he purchased a coach's computer which will enable him to download breakdowns of every play. He has more talent and the body to use it than any receiver I've seen. Now that the work ethic, film study and dedication are coming in hand with that talent, what records are out of the reach of Randy Moss?

For the last 3 seasons Moss has had to deal with the ill fated Randy Ratio, injuries at running back and the lack of a strong supporting receiver contingent. This season there is depth across the board.

• Four legitimate options at RB



• Strong depth on the offensive line



• Gus Frerotte as the backup quarterback



• Three other receivers more than capable of helping Moss

Moss is still the main man, but now defenses shouldn't be able to concentrate as much of their game plan on him as in the last few years.

The Plantar Fasciitis (foot) injury is a common thread of concern when discussing Randy Moss this year. He played with it towards the end of the season posting 39-563-7 in the last 5 games alone and participated in every June practice session. Given that Moss has not missed a game in his career and has played with this injury in the past, he should be given the benefit of the doubt as to whether it will affect him during game time this season.

Everything for Moss was on an upswing last year. Expect Moss to return close to last years stats, perhaps even improve on them.

Andy Hicks on WR Eric Moulds - Buffalo Bills

Eric Moulds finished last season ranked 45th, a poor return for those who drafted him as the 4th overall receiver. Yet there are those lining up for more punishment. Moulds is being drafted, on average, as the 12th receiver.

Moulds is a fantasy tease. Over the course of the last 6 years he has delivered 2 great seasons and 3 that have cost fantasy owners dearly. The 2 great seasons have come when Moulds was tremendous value.

Reasons for concern

1. He has a new coaching staff and offensive system.



2. Injuries. Last season, groin and hamstring. At age 31 Moulds faces a crucial year.



3. He has 2 young receivers supporting him and a rookie quarterback who should see some time.



4. The new offense promises to run the ball more often, whether this improves the passing game is debatable.



5. An offensive line that has given up 103 sacks in the last 2 years.

A lot has to go right for Moulds to return to his best. I'm seeing quite a few hiccups along the way.

Believe in the even year theory for Eric Moulds? It's a coincidence folks. If you believe this then Moulds is going to be huge in 2006, after all he excelled in the Winter Olympic years of 1998 and 2002. If Moulds does star this year and flops in 2005 I might believe it myself, but for now it would be prudent to concentrate on things we know.

Let's look at last years stats. In the first 5 games reveals before injury Moulds had 30-457-1, which prorated for a full season gives him 96-1492-3. This would have ranked 16th in most yardage/touchdown leagues. Moulds finished with a 6 game total of 23-238-0. Prorating this makes sorry reading.

Obviously Moulds should improve on that ordinary finish to the season, but to vault him into the top 12 is risky business. I see Moulds as worth drafting when 20 other receivers are taken. He'll be off the board before then, so don't let it be you that drafts him high.

Chase Stuart on QB Chad Pennington - New York Jets

When you think of Chad Pennington, generally a few things come to mind:

• He's an accurate passer



• He's never played a full NFL season



• He's a pretty good fantasy QB

There's not much debate about the first two-but the third is something I think people are forgetting. The word upside is tossed around in regards to David Carr and Joey Harrington, but not Chad Pennington. Do you know they both have thrown more career passes than Pennington? People seem to forget that this is just the second year that Pennington enters an NFL training camp as the starter-and thus, has quite a lot of room left for improvement.

Check out the stats from his last sixteen starts:

• 314 completions



• 477 attempts



• 65.8%



• 3,589 yards



• 7.52 Y/A



• 29 TDs



• 13 INTs



• 57 rushing yards



• 3 TDs; 306 FPs

In case you're wondering, that would have tied for third among QBs last season, as both Matt Hasselbeck and Trent Green scored 306 FPs. Keep in mind, that this was Pennington:

• Without a good number two WR in any of the games (neither of the last two years have seen two New York WRs top 700 yards)



• Playing all of last season rusty, as he rushed back from a preseason injury (to his non-throwing hand).

The addition of Justin McCareins from Tennessee could be just what helps Pennington become a fantasy stud. He should feel comfortable in the offense, where he now enters as the starter for the second straight year. It returns all but one starter from a year ago (Curtis Conway). With Santana Moss, McCareins and Wayne Chrebet, and good receivers at both RB positions, the Jets will be able to move the ball through the air this season. When one considers the Jets lack of success running into the end zone, expect to see a lot of touchdown passes from Chad Pennington in 2004. One of the most accurate QBs in the league, Chad Pennington should reach his potential and be a fantasy steal this year.

Andy Hicks on RB Clinton Portis - Denver Broncos

If you have a Top 6 pick this year you are likely to face the Clinton Portis dilemma

From the Top 9 backs listed here, how many have one of the following?

• New club



• New offensive system



• Different opening day starting quarterback?

Portis has all 3. None of the others have any. With the other 8 guys, you have some barometer as to how they'll fare. With Portis you don't.

I want to make it clear that Portis could be one of the best backs to ever play the game, but we won't know that until we see him this year. Under Daniel Snyder the Redskins have a vast array of big name signatures that haven't worked out, is Portis going to be another? He is playing for a legendary coach that hasn't coached since free agency began. His teammates are learning another new system, as is Portis.

I like taking risks in a draft, but there is one pick I refuse to do that with and that's my first rounder. If your first pick strikes out you can still win, but it restricts your chances. Grabbing Portis could be your ticket to the title, but I'll remind you that of the Top 9 projected backs this year only one missed the week of the fantasy Super Bowl last year (obviously, Portis)

Another item of concern: Is Clinton Portis a product of the system or a genuine star? The only back to leave Denver in the last 9 years is Olandis Gary and that was after a knee injury, no help there.

Finally onto the schedule. There are no appalling AFC West run defenses this year on his itinerary. In the 13 games Portis played last season he was up against 8 of the worst 12 run defenses, this year he only comes up against 4 of them.

If you skip Clinton Portis in the middle of the first you are likely to face some smack talk. Smile, laugh along, but remember who gave it to you at the end of the year. This year Portis is a risky pick.

Chase Stuart on WR Charles Rogers - Detroit Lions

With all the hype surrounding the talent of this current rookie class of receivers, Charles Rogers' skills have been put on the backburner. However, Rogers is the best bet to be a star immediately of any receiver drafted the past two seasons.

Rogers was a collegiate superstar, and one of the best prospects at the position in recent history. He's tall and fast with good hands-and knows how to get into the end zone. The Lions should be a better team this year, as Kevin Jones and Roy Williams bring an infusion of talent to their offense. Joey Harrington enters his third year in the league, and Steve Mariucci is more prepared in his second season in Detroit. Having a capable running game and a strong complementary receiver will make life very easy on Charles Rogers.

Detroit figures to pass a lot again this year, as they have ranked top five in attempts two of the past three seasons. Certainly, the more the Lions pass the more likely Rogers will be hitting 1,000 yards. Fortunately for him, Roy Williams is just a rookie-good enough to keep defenses honest, but not so capable as to eat into Rogers stats. With an awful defense still residing in Motown, he'll be scoring a lot of fantasy points in garbage time.

Rogers had a ton of targets his rookie year and I don't expect that to change much. Only Torry Holt had more than the 11.6 targets per game than the former Spartan had. If Rogers sees anywhere near that many targets in 2004, he'll be a top ten receiver easily.

The second year is often the breakout year for a receiver, and I'm confident Rogers is ready. He's too talented to be simply a run of the mill wide out-and Steve Mariucci knows how to make a star WR. I think Rogers has a great chance to be a strong number two fantasy receiver this year. In Detroit's version of the West Coast Offense, someone will be catching a lot of yards-and a healthy Rogers will become a star.

Mark Wimer on TE Jeremy Shockey - New York Giants

Lots of things have been changing for the NYG this past offseason. There is a new coaching regime in town. There are two new QBs in town. All this change means a new offensive philosophy - and a new cadence and rhythm at the line of scrimmage to grow accustomed to - these adjustments will require practice time and repetitions before a player can be expected to perform at the top of his ability.

Unfortunately, one thing that hasn't changed over the offseason. is the injury status of Jeremy Shockey. His problems have continued into the 2004 minicamps - a new foot injury (or an extension of an old one) caused him to undergo surgery on the fifth metatarsal bone in his right foot on 6/23/04. Unfortunately, he will miss most, and may miss all, of training camp due to this foot surgery (a minimum of 6 weeks to rehab the right foot). The Giants claim that Shockey will be ready to play at the start of the regular season - the question is, will he be able to play well in the new system with a new QB tossing around the ball, with only limited repetitions in training camp?

You should expect Shockey to start out of the gates slowly in 2004, as he will need practice reps during regular season to get fully up to speed in the new system/build rapport with the team's new QB. While he is a gifted athlete and a very productive TE (when healthy), his overall fantasy numbers for 2004 aren't likely to be in the excellent category, due to the tough situation Shockey finds himself facing.

500-600 yards receiving with 4-5 TDs during 2004 is my revised projection for Jeremy Shockey since the foot surgery has wiped out a significant portion of his training camp. If his rehabilitation extends into the start of regular season, then Shockey's outlook for 2004 would be even worse. As things stand now, he has rejoined "the pack" of TE's behind Tony Gonzalez and Todd Heap in terms of expected 2004 production.

Cathy Fazio on WR Jimmy Smith - Jacksonville Jaguars

Jimmy Smith is entering his thirteenth year in the NFL. He has been a force to be reckoned with during his years with the Jacksonville Jaguars. And he has been a top notch fantasy wide receiver throughout his career as well. Particularly in 1999 when he made 116 receptions for 1636 yards.

But since 2001, his numbers have slowly been going downward.

• 2000 - 91 receptions for 1213 yards and 8 touchdowns



• 2001 - 112 receptions for 1373 yards and 8 touchdowns



• 2002 - 80 receptions for 1027 yards 7 touchdowns



• 2003 - 54 receptions for 805 yards and 4 touchdowns

Realize that in 2003 he missed 4 games of the season with a suspension. What concerns me the most about the downward progression is not so much the receptions and yardage, but the decrease in touchdown receptions. Wide receivers who are consistent scoring threats are far more valuable assets to a fantasy team.

Last season he was the Jaguars' primary receiving threat; he will probably remain that this year. But rookie Reggie Williams is the receiver that the Jaguars' will be looking to develop into their receiver of the future. The Jaguars will try to incorporate Williams into their game plan as much as possible quite possibly to Smith's detriment.

The thing about Jimmy Smith is this. I think that he makes a solid second WR on your fantasy squad. But I would not want to have to rely on him as the backbone of a WR squad as he has been in the past.

Michael Brown on TE L.J. Smith - Philadelphia Eagles

Unless you are Randy McMichael or Jeremy Shockey (or strangely, Cam Cleeland), life is tough for a rookie tight end. Such was the case with L.J. Smith in 2003.

By all accounts, Smith struggled. He caught 27 passes for 321 yards and a score, but much of the focus was on what he didn't do. He tied for 10th in the NFL among tight ends with 11 red zone targets, but had just one score. He was tied for 6th with 5 goal line targets, but didn't score on any of them.

But that was last season. Though the hype has slowed, the player has not. All of the offseason news surrounding Smith was very positive.

• His playing weight remains 254 pounds. But he has lost fat and added muscle, according to reports.



• In June minicamps, he made one spectacular play after another, flashing the skills that made him a second round pick.

Realize that this was a rookie TE trying to grasp one of the most difficult offenses in the NFL (West Coast) and you can understand why he struggled.

Despite those struggles, it wouldn't be unprecedented for Smith to take a big leap this year. Excluding Shockey and McMichael (who enjoyed success as rookies), let's look at some other top tight ends from Year 1 to Year 2.

• Tony Gonzalez
  Year 1 - 33 receptions, 368 yards
  Year 2 - 59 receptions, 621 yards



• Todd Heap
  Year 1 - 16 receptions, 206 yards
  Year 2 - 68 receptions, 836 yards



• Alge Crumpler
  Year 1 - 25 receptions, 330 yards
  Year 2 - 36 receptions, 455 yards

This isn't to say that Smith will automatically see a huge spike. After all, Chad Lewis is still listed as the starter. But with Smith's upside, most observers feel it is only a matter of time before he starts over Lewis.

Smith is our 20th ranked tight end, but he could be a steal in the late rounds. He's got a legitimate chance to leapfrog at least 10 of the guys on that list, if not more.

Aaron Rudnicki on WR Travis Taylor - Baltimore Ravens

Travis Taylor has been in the NFL for 4 full years now, and has averaged 42.5 receptions, 584 yards, and about 4 TDs. That would be good for about 82 points and would have put him right in the same range as guys like Kelly Campbell and Jerome Pathon last year. However, those are complementary players on their teams while Travis Taylor was supposedly the #1 WR on his team for awhile now. Despite having a world of talent that led to him being drafted very high, along with very little competition for pass targets at the WR position, along with a Pro Bowl RB and TE to take attention away from him, Travis Taylor has been a perennial disappointment and has only cracked 3 TDs and 800 yards once in his career.

Part of the reason for his mediocrity is the dominant Ravens defense, the conservative Ravens offense that he plays in, and the poor QB play he has gotten over the past few years. Those problems still remain in place - the Ravens are easily a top-3 defense, they still have Jamal Lewis who is coming off a 2000 yard season where he led the league in rush attempts, and Kyle Boller is an inexperienced, inconsistent, and unproven 2nd year QB. Furthermore, the Ravens pursuit of Terrell Owens this offseason and eventual trade for Kevin Johnson is a pretty strong indicator that they don't think Taylor can get the job done. Johnson will likely become the #1 WR target this year, and Taylor will become an even smaller part of the offensive game plan. As an underwhelming #2 WR on a run first offense with an anemic passing attack (ranked dead last in 2003), Taylor has very minimal upside and plenty of downside. I'd expect him to do no better than his career average, and probably slightly worse given the addition of a proven WR in KJ.

Andy Hicks on WR Amani Toomer - New York Giants

Which Amani Toomer turns up in 2004?
The receiver who finished 6th in 2002 with 82-1343-8, plus 8-136-3 in the playoff game against the 49ers or the receiver who finish 17th in 2003 with 63-1057-5? As Toomer is currently averaging a draft slot around the 20 mark for wide receivers, if either of these guys turn up you have still drafted a receiver who will outperform his draft slot.

There have been big changes at the Giants. The main ones being the change at quarterback and the arrival of coach Tom Coughlin. What hasn't changed is that Amani Toomer is still the main guy, Ike Hilliard will be #2, and Jeremy Shockey will be at tight end. Injury concerns have derailed Hilliard's career and threaten to do the same to Shockey.

Toomer does have to rely on a new quarterback, but Kurt Warner and/or Eli Manning should do enough to keep Toomer happy.

Here's an amazing stat, even though the Giants phoned in last season, especially the last half (0-8), Amani Toomer received more targets than he did in 2002. Toomer finished with the equal 5th amount of targets, behind only Coles, Boldin, Randy Moss and Holt.

Even though Toomer received more targets last year, he posted an appalling target to reception ratio. I'm putting that down to a bad year for most Giants players. If Toomer can lift that figure close to the levels of the previous 2 seasons he should perform well above his draft position. Having signed a 5 year contract extension Toomer will be an integral part of Coughlin's Giants.

Toomer is a consistent receiver, 5 consecutive seasons as a #2 receiver or better is testament to that. If you like a nice safe bet with your 2nd receiver then Toomer is your man. This year Toomer defines low risk, high reward.

Mark Wimer on QB Michael Vick - Atlanta Falcons

Michael Vick is a phenomenal talent. He is capable of laser-like passes and has the agility of an acrobat. However, talent is not enough in the NFL. To rise into the elite ranks of quarterbacks, a player needs discipline and experience.

Michael Vick has not yet played enough games in the NFL to have amassed sufficient experience to truly excel. He relies on his instincts (which includes scrambling out of the pocket and absorbing physical punishment) - during 2002, he sprained the AC joints in both his shoulders and had limited motion in his passing arm (and off-arm) as a result. Last year, a broken leg cost him 11 out of 16 games. In the remaining 5 games of 2003, he posted passing totals of 8/11 for 60/0/0 (Houston); 16/33 for 179/0/1 (Carolina); 6/19 for 47/0/1 (Indianapolis); 8/15 for 119/2/0 (Tampa); and 12/22 for 180/2/1 (Jacksonville). His rushing totals were remarkable only one week, vs. Carolina (14/141/1). Basically, Vick's 2003 season was a waste.

So far in his career, Vick has completed 52.2% of his passes, with 22 passing TDs in 28 games. He has yet to play a full season. He is in a new offensive system, with a brand-new coaching staff. The new coaching staff wants to limit the number of carries on which Vick exposes himself to opposing defenses, so it is highly unlikely he will come near his 2002 totals of 113 carries for 777 yards and 8 TDs during 2004.

Vick remains an intriguing but raw talent who has limited NFL experience. He has not yet proven to be an elite quarterback, and there is no reason to expect him to suddenly become one. Vick is a work in progress, and to reflect that fact a projection of 3100-3200 yards passing with 18-20 TDs and 17-18 interceptions (with 300-400 yards rushing and 2-3 rushing TDs) is appropriate. Those numbers puts him among the top ten among fantasy quarterbacks in my book, but just barely. Vick's ingrained habits as far as scrambling out of pressure increase his injury risks, as well. Buyer Beware.

Marc Levin on WR Javon Walker - Green Bay Packers

Javon Walker finished as the #20/#21 fantasy receiver under most performance fantasy systems in 2003. He did this primarily with a late season push in weeks 12 and 17, when he had 5 of his 9 TDs and 400 of his 716 yards. The thing is, he wasn't targeted more in those games than in the previous 10 weeks. He was simply doing more on less. Walker did not catch more than 4 passes in any of those game. His most catches in any game in 2003 was 5. Interesting side note - Walker caught at least one TD in every game in which he caught 3 passes or more except for the meaningless season finale.

Walker caught 41 of the 74 passes that came his way - a 55% reception rate. Not bad, but not outstanding. Fellow WR Robert Ferguson was battling injuries all year and Donald Driver had a down year. Both will be looking for QB Brett Favre's eye more this year.

Walker is probably the most skilled wide receiver on the roster, and he supposedly came into camp impressing the bejeezus out of the staff. However, come game time, Favre looks in one direction - the open receiver. He is not impressed that you can catch passes one-handed with weights on your legs if you are not open during the game. Walker's end of year performance moved him into a starting role, but defenses may key on him more, which would leave other receivers open.

Finally, let's talk Ahman Green - this is his team. They run much more than in the past. As it stood, Walker did a LOT of damage on few catches per game (2.5 catches/game). I fear Walker will not gain top-20 WR status, yet he is generally being drafted as the 20th WR off the board. I'd rather spend a much later pick on his fellow starter Driver as the #37 receiver off the board as I believe he and Walker will have similar production in 2004.

Mark Wimer on WR Reggie Wayne - Indianapolis Colts

Reggie Wayne has improved his fantasy performance over the past 3 years, going from 27/345/0 during 2001 to 49/716/4 in 2002 and 68/838/7 last season. He plays on a team that loves to run the two TE set as their base offense - which means that on a majority of plays each Sunday, Wayne is one of only 2 WRs slashing through the opposition's defense. Oh yeah, this guy named Peyton Manning is the team's quarterback - all Manning has done the past 5 years is to throw for a minimum of 4131 yards and a minimum of 26 TDs There is a huge pie of yardage and TDs to share among the players on the field each week in Indianapolis.

Now, the team does have a phenomenal #1 WR in the person of Marvin Harrison, and there is no reason to expect Wayne to supplant Harrison as the top receiver. However, in Wayne's third season with the team, Harrison saw his first sub-100 reception season since 1998. Harrison caught 49 less balls in 2003 (down from an epic 143-reception 2002 campaign). Wayne has earned the confidence of Peyton Manning and eased the load on Harrison - these things are good for the Colts, and good for Wayne's fantasy prospects. Playing second-fiddle to an elite NFL receiver means that Wayne won't get very many double-teams regardless of how talented and polished he now is - to devote too much coverage to Wayne would be dangerous with Harrison on the same field. Dallas Clark and Marcus Pollard are both accomplished receivers, as is Edgerrin James - inevitably, there are going to be holes for Wayne to exploit, barring some rash of injuries on the offensive side of the ball in Indianapolis. I don't see Troy Walters or Brandon Stokley as threats to Wayne's #2 status - they are decent situational wideouts, nothing more.

I look for Wayne's fantasy performance to continue to increase during 2004, and expect 900-1000 yards receiving and 7-8 TDs to be his share of Manning's expected 4100+ yards, 26+ TDs Thus, Wayne sits at #28 on my WR board.

David Yudkin on TE Boo Williams - New Orleans Saints

Me and You and a Tight End Named Boo

Last year, Williams somehow ranked as the #4 TE with 74 fantasy points scored. It was a nice season that was somewhat unexpected, but it's doubtful he has much chance of ranking that high again.

Splitting Time With Ernie Conwell
Williams picked his game up a notch when starting TE Ernie Conwell missed the second half of the season. Conwell should return this year, and Williams should split time and opportunities with Big Ern.

TE Scoring Down in 2003
The same 74 points scored Williams scored in 2003 would have ranked 9, 13, 7, 7, and 10 in the previous 5 seasons. With Shockey back to health and Winslow entering the league, there will be more competition among the top TE.

Not Many High Scoring Games Over His Career
Williams also scored a huge chunk of his fantasy points in a 9-110-1 game against Philadelphia. In 40 other games played, he's only had one other game of over 60 yards receiving.

Saints' System Not Usually TE Friendly
In two other seasons in New Orleans, Williams had a high of 20-202-3, a far cry from being a candidate to be a Top 5 TE. In the Aaron Brooks era, Williams' season last year was far and away the best for a TE.

Bottom Line
Historically, the numbers and usage patterns for Saints TE all suggest Williams will have difficulty ranking in the Top 5 TE next season. As there are a lot of similar TE scoring wise, don't reach and take Williams too soon, as there will be other TE that score in his range that will be selected much later in fantasy drafts.

Chase Stuart on WR Roy Williams - Detroit Lions

There's bad passing, and then there's the Detroit Lions. Hey look, anyone can finish last in consecutive years in yards per attempt. Sure, a year ago the team Passing Yards per attempt ratio (5.07) was so awful it looked like the Detroit Tigers team ERA (Actually, the 2003 Tigers team ERA was 5.30, so I'm not sure who I'm insulting with that one). Yes, I'm quite positive that finishing in the top five for passing attempts and bottom five for passing yards isn't the best sign in the world. Alas, there's hope in Detroit. Just not for Roy Williams' fantasy prospects. For starters, the addition of Kevin Jones means Detroit will run more-likely a lot more. However, the biggest question for Williams isn't how many times the Lions will pass-it's how many times they'll pass to him. Something tells me Detroit isn't very anxious to start a young QB, a rookie RB, and two WRs with a grand total of five games of NFL experience. That something, is Tai Streets. Mariucci signed the veteran to play opposite Rogers, as he played opposite Terrell Owens in San Francisco. Obviously he's a favorite of Mooch, and he'll provide some much needed veteran leadership to the team. When you consider that Az-Zahir Hakim is still a good slot receiver, I'm just not sure how much playing time Roy Williams will see. There's no need to rush him onto the field, as the Lions actually have a better than average set of WRs.

Sure Roy Williams is a great athlete, and was a monster in college. But he's going to the worst passing team in the league, and he's got an uphill battle to be the number three wide receiver there. Maybe in mid-season Williams can start to have some value, but by then the team that drafted him will have cut him weeks ago. For now, I'd rather take my chances on a number two WR on a bad team, or an underrated veteran trying to rebound from a poor season.

Chase Stuart on TE Kellen Winslow, Jr - Cleveland Browns

There's a lot to like about Kellen Winslow Jr. He's got tremendous talent, with as much physical ability as any tight end in the league. He played at the University of Miami, where such stars as Jeremy Shockey and Bubba Franks excelled. Winslow obviously has Hall Of Fame bloodlines-his father was a five-time Pro Bowl TE, and had three seasons with over 1,000 yards receiving. Additionally, Winslow goes to a team that really needs a star TE.

Cleveland no longer has Jamel White catching balls out of the backfield, and neither William Green nor Lee Suggs has good hands. Winslow will be the safety option for new QB Jeff Garcia. The Browns wide receivers are good but not great, and Winslow could quickly become a favorite of the new quarterback. On a team with no dependable receiving threat, Winslow could quickly fill that role.

Jeremy Shockey had an impact rookie season, despite competing with talented pass catches like Tiki Barber and Amani Toomer. Winslow should have no problem seeing at a minimum 400 receiving yards in 2004, and has upside for a good deal more. Jeff Garcia likes throwing to the tight end, as San Francisco tight ends caught over 550 yards last year. Trust me when I say that neither Jed Weaver nor Aaron Walker has the skill set that Kellen Winslow brings.

Cleveland traded up a second round draft pick, just to move ahead one spot to draft Kellen Winslow Jr. It's been thirty-one years since a TE was drafted as high as sixth-when Charles Young of the Eagles earned that distinction. (He was a Pro Bowl the first three seasons of his career). Butch Davis earned a lot of critics by making the controversial trade and selection of Winslow. I have no doubt he's going to try and make himself look like a genius with that pick. They are going to make him an important piece of the offense immediately. Winslow will likely be a top five TE this year, and could challenge Todd Heap and Jeremy Shockey for the number two spot.

Mark Wimer on WR Rashaun Woods - San Francisco 49ers

Though the injury to Tim Rattay has adversely affected his prospects for the early part of 2004 (Rashaun Woods simply didn't have a chance to get in sync with Rattay before the injury, and now he'll have to wait for the start of regular season to get reps with Rattay), Woods is the most talented young receiver in the 49ers inexperienced stable. Brandon Lloyd and Cedrick Wilson do not strike me as legitimate #1 wide receivers - at least, they haven't done anything to show me that they can fill that role. Wilson was a 6th round selection (#169) back in 2001, Lloyd was a 4th rounder (#124) in 2003 - Rashaun Woods was the 31st player selected in 2004. The difference between the player's draft spots was due to their pro potential/innate talent.

Since they joined the team, Lloyd has booked 14 receptions for 212 yards and 2 TDs, while Wilson has managed 59/562/3 over two seasons. That's not much experience or production to build a WR stable around. It also means that nobody has the inside track on leading the team during 2004.

Once Woods puts in the necessary practice/game reps with Rattay, Woods should become the 49ers go-to guy - perhaps by mid-season in 2004. The 49ers are undergoing a rebuilding process during 2004 - why not give the rookie plenty of game-time experience, when San Francisco is going to be lucky to finish .500 anyway?

While plenty of talented rookies come into the NFL and struggle during their first season, Woods enters a situation where there is nobody else significantly more experienced in front of him, and where he is the most gifted player at the position. He has a good shot at significantly contributing to the 49ers passing game during 2004, with 700-800 yards and 6-7 TDs within his reach if he works hard and maximizes his talents.