Mark Wimer/Joe Bryant - Rushing Matchups

PLEASE NOTE: This does NOT replace the Cheatsheet ranking. The Cheatsheet rankings are the final say on where we see a player for that week. The Matchup Breakdowns are simply one more tool in the box when it comes to helping choose your lineup.

Also note, just because a player has a "bad" matchup, it does NOT mean he's not a starter in your league. If Priest Holmes is playing the toughest rush defense in the league, that just means he's got a tough matchup that week. He's also your starter. In the same way, if the worst RB on your roster has a "great" matchup, that doesn't necessarily mean you start him, it just means he'll likely fare better this week than he normally would.

Bottom line, the cheatsheets are the final word.

Let's jump to it.

Joe

As we begin the year's regular season Matchups, a couple of additional notes are in order. First of all, due to the early Thursday game, the injury information is clearly not as firm as we'd like it but we're working with the best information we have.

Secondly, defenses play vanilla schemes and a lot of back-up talent during preseason, so looking at statistics from these games in aggregate isn't very informative regarding the starting lineups' performance. For that reason, we will use the final 2003 defensive statistics (where appropriate) and look at week 3 preseason games (when most teams play their starters for at least half the game) to give us an indication of how the respective units are shaping up heading into 2004.

Baltimore's Jamal Lewis vs. The Cleveland Defense (Great Matchup)

Jamal Lewis dominated the Browns last season, rushing for 30/295/2 against Cleveland in week 2 and then slashing them for another 205 yards on 22 carries (21 receiving yards) and 2 TDs during week 16. When a back can put up 500 yards rushing against a division rival in a single season, he owns them. Lewis is the #8 fantasy RB on our board heading into 2004 and we think he'll continue to dominate the AFC North during 2004.

Cleveland's rush D was in the bottom tier of the NFL last year, ranking 23rd while allowing 132.1 rushing yards per contest. They didn't do much on the defensive side of the ball during the offseason, so this unit is essentially the same bunch of guys that laid down to Lewis twice last year. Uh-oh, Browns fans.

Baltimore's starting LT Jonathan Ogden is hurting coming into the regular season (sprained MCL in his left knee), so that is a big concern for Lewis' owners during week 1. Keep an eye on Ogden's status as the week progresses. They are definitely without C Mike Flynn (broken collarbone). Reserve DL Antonio Garay (knee, PUP) is out for the Browns, as is reserve LB/ST ace Brant Boyer (foot, out for the season).

The forecast for Cleveland Browns' Stadium calls for a high of 78F and a low of 62F, with a 20% chance of rain. It should be a great day to play football, assuming the remnant of Hurricane Frances has blown itself out by next Sunday (as is very likely).

Lewis and the Ravens must believe they can dominate this defense, and the Browns know what happened to them last season. This looks like an inviting matchup for Lewis.

Denver's Quentin Griffin vs. The Kansas City Defense (Great Matchup)

Denver will be welcomed to Arrowhead stadium by the Chiefs and their new defensive coordinator/old head coach Gunther Cunningham, who is attempting to revitalize a rush D that resembled a doormat last season (146.5 rushing yards allowed per game in 2003).

The debate over the fitness of Quentin Griffin to carry the load for the Broncos will begin to be answered on Sunday. He has been consistently solid during preseason (13/54/1 vs. Houston in week 3 of preseason, for example), and we think he'll do well in regular season, leading the Broncos in rushing and landing in the top 30 among fantasy backs (24th overall) at the end of 2004. The season-ending injury to Mike Anderson has elevated Tatum Bell to #2 in Denver (Garrison Hearst hasn't shown much to the coaching staff during preseason), so the team has an intriguing talent to spell Griffin when he needs a series off on the sidelines.

The Chiefs run D in 2003 was unacceptably bad. They were pushed around on a weekly basis, including an embarrassing 32/270/5 shellacking by the Broncos in week 14 of the 2003 regular season. The futility has continued during the 2004 preseason, with the Chiefs allowing 27/145/1 to the Browns during their week 3 preseason game. This is a weak run D, folks.

The Chiefs' former starting MLB Mike Maslowski was placed on IR on Sunday, he was never able to get his knee rehabilitated during the preseason Broncos RB Tatum Bell has an injured finger but is playing through the pain.

The forecast for Mile High Stadium calls for a high of 81F and a low of 56F with a 10% chance for rain. It should be a great day to play football.

At home in Mile High stadium, the Broncos should have their way with the soft Chiefs' run D.

San Diego's LaDainian Tomlinson vs. The Houston Defense (Great Matchup)

LaDainian Tomlinson is an awesome fantasy back, and nothing is really changing in San Diego this year. They have a nondescript group of WRs, a grind-it-out head coach in Marty Schottenheimer, and we expect Tomlinson to put this team on his broad shoulders and carry it as far as he can again in 2004. He's our #2 RB in the final preseason projections moving on into 2004 regular season. Start him if you've got him (like we need to tell you that).

Houston really struggled to stop the run in 2003, allowing an average of 148.1 yards per game on average. They haven't been too stellar in preseason, either, allowing 33/129/2 to the Broncos during week 3 of preseason There is still a lot of room for improvement in this phase of the game on Houston's part.

OL Chad Ward has a sore back coming into regular season. The Texans' LDE Gary Walker has a sore groin to start 2004 regular season (day-to-day) but are otherwise relatively healthy on their unit.

The forecast for Reliant Stadium in Houston calls for a high of 90F and a low of 67F, with a 0% chance of precipitation. It sounds like the retractable roof will be open this week.

Tomlinson should rip up the Texans to start the regular season right where he left off 2003.

Houston's Domanick Davis vs. The San Diego Defense (Great Matchup)

San Diego brought in Wade Phillips to head their defense in an attempt to resurrect their once-proud days (the team was 27th in total D during 2003). As Phillips headed up Atlanta's disastrous 2003 defensive campaign (32nd in the NFL), it remains to be seen what he can do to help.

Domanick Davis exploded into the fantasy scene last year, with a 14th place finish in FP by years' end. This year, he won't sneak up on anybody, and is expected to be a top producer (12th in total FP by the end of regular season, according to our projections). He was slowed by ankle problems for most of the preseason, but ripped up Denver for 7/49/0 rushing and 2/20/0 receiving once he was feeling 100%. Word is that he'll see some touches flow to backup Tony Hollings, but as the Texans are aiming for 30-35 rushes per game in 2004, there is a big pie of handoffs to divide up.

San Diego's defense was pretty embarrassing in 2003, and they coughed up 138.6 rushing yards per game (24th in the NFL). They have shown some improvement in preseason, holding Seattle to 34/124/1 in their week 3 exhibition contest. It's not an impenetrable front by any means, but at least they're not totally soft so far, either.

Houston comes into the game in good health, while the Chargers have a couple of backup DL banged up (Ryon Bingham, biceps, out indefinitely; DeQuincy Scott, back, day-to-day).

The forecast for Reliant Stadium in Houston calls for a high of 90F and a low of 67F, with a 0% chance of precipitation. It sounds like the retractable roof will be open this week.

Davis is a top flight NFL back on a surging offense, while the Chargers are in a rebuilding phase on D. Houston claims a big edge in this one, at home in Reliant Stadium.

Seattle's Shaun Alexander vs. The New Orleans' Defense (Great Matchup)

Shaun Alexander is an elite NFL back, playing in one of the leagues' best offenses. He was the 6th best fantasy back in 2003, and we project him to be there at the top of the list again in 2004 (6th). His OL is healthy, the passing game must be respected so he can't be targeted by opposing defenders excessively - Alexander is going to terrorize opponents again this season.

The New Orleans defense was soft against the run in 2003, allowing an average of 140.1 yards per game to the opposition. The Chicago Bears spanked the D for 28/161/1 during their week 3 preseason game, so not too much has changed in this phase, apparently.

Seattle is in fine health coming into this one. New Orleans has some banged up DL, with Willie Whitehead (knee, PUP) and Kenny Smith (rotator cuff, out for the season) already hurting. LB Cie Grant is also out due to a knee injury (IR).

This game is being played in the Superdome, so weather won't be a factor.

Alexander and company are elite, the Saints are subpar in this phase at best - Advantage, Seattle.

New England's Corey Dillon vs. The Indianapolis Defense (Good Matchup)

Corey Dillon has been acclimating himself to a new offensive system during the preseason, and has been solid but unspectacular during the process. However, now that regular season has arrived we expect him to turn his game up a notch (Dillon is our 14th ranked fantasy RB heading into the regular season, a solid #2 for almost any squad). The news that Kevin Faulk's knee is injured (the exact extent of the problem is unknown due to an ill family member that Faulk is attending to away from the team) means that Dillon is likely to see a heavy load in this first game of the regular season. Dillon did not see action against the Colts while with Cincinnati last season, so he hasn't seen their defense in action for a while.

The Colts' run defense wasn't too scary last season, allowing an average of 123.8 yards per game (t-20th in the NFL). The Patriots, behind Antowain Smith, ran for 32/112/0 against this unit in the AFC Championship game last season. Buffalo ripped up the Colts' run D in their preseason game week 3, slapping down 34/145/0 in that contest. It looks like the Colts need to work some more on their run D coming into 2004.

As mentioned above, Kevin Faulk has a knee injury, but otherwise the unit comes into this game relatively healthy. Indianapolis will probably go without LDE Raheem Brock (ankle injury) and may be without the services of backup LB Gilbert Gardner (tweaked ankle).

The forecast for Thursday calls for a high of 75F and a low of 61F at Gillette Stadium in Foxboro, MA - but the real story is going to be if and how hard it rains at game time. The early forecasts calls for a 60% chance of rain, but with the recent hurricane weather down south lingering upwards, it's really anybody's guess what conditions will be like at game time. Keep an eye on the forecast as game time approaches.

The Patriots have a balanced and powerful offense, while the Colts look a little shaky at run D coming into 2004 and have gave ground to New England in recent memory. Advantage, New England.

St. Louis' Marshall Faulk vs. The Arizona Defense (Good Matchup)

Mike Martz's offense faces a newly-minted defensive coordinator - Clancy Pendergast, a longtime NFL assistant (LB coach in Cleveland during 2003). As our Jason Wood pointed out in his coaching carousel article, "Unfortunately for Cardinals' fans, Green has never put much emphasis on defense, and Clancy Pendergast isn't going to be confused for a defensive guru anytime soon."

Despite lingering concerns over the soundness of his knees, Marshall Faulk comes into this game as the Rams' #1 RB. He has been played sparingly during preseason (4/11/0 during the week 3 game vs. Washington, for example) but has looked sound enough in his limited appearances. We see him as the #13 fantasy RB coming into the regular season, so he should produce consistently for his fantasy squads. Backup Steven Jackson has been electric in his chances during preseason, topping 100 yards rushing twice, and looks like he'll do good things with the ball when Faulk needs a breather, or in case of a Faulk injury. We think he'll see significant playing time (32nd fantasy RB on our board to enter 2004).

Arizona was very mediocre at defending the run in 2003, allowing an average of 119.7 rushing yards per game to the opposition (19th in the NFL). The Raiders stomped them for 21/114/1 (a 5.4 ypc average) during the week 3 preseason contest, so it doesn't look like Pendergast has been able to do much with his motley crew of defenders in this arena, not yet at least. Couple the above with the news that starting DT Wendell Bryant is suspended for four games due to a substance abuse policy violation, and the picture looks even bleaker for the Cardinals heading into the opener.

Some concerns for the Rams in this area are the absence of OT Kyle Turley (back injury, out for the season, and perhaps considering retirement), and the fact that LT Orlando Pace just got into camp. This has the team scrambling (OGs Tom Nutten and Chris Dishman have come out of retirement to play for this unit, and Dishman started 2 games in preseason, which tells you how dire the Rams' OL needs are right now). Even with all the chaos on the line, though, the team put up 36/151/2 rushing against the Redskins in week 3 of the preseason. Arizona is already without defensive linemen Kenny King (wrist, out for the season) and Fred Wakefield (foot injury, IR), while LB Levar Fisher is on the PUP with a knee injury. LB Karlos Dansby has a sore hamstring to start the regular season.

This game is being played in the Edward Jones Dome, so weather won't be a factor.

The Rams' OL is thin, but playing fairly well, and Marshall Faulk is an awesome back when healthy. The Cardinals are not very impressive, so we think that the Rams have the edge in this contest.

San Francisco's Kevan Barlow vs. The Atlanta Defense (Good Matchup)

San Francisco promoted Ted Tollner to offensive coordinator when Greg Knapp departed to Atlanta, so the system is not radically different in 2004. Ed Donatell, formerly defensive coordinator in Green Bay, is the new defensive coordinator in Atlanta, and teams with head coach Jim Mora (a defensive coordinator with San Francisco from 1999-2003) to try and salvage something from the train-wreck that was the 2003 Falcons' defense (32nd in the league in total D, allowing 381.8 yards per game on average).

Kevan Barlow is finally the unchallenged starter in San Francisco, with Garrison Hearst now in Denver. We love his situation in San Francisco, and project him to be among the top ten fantasy RBs this season (#10). He had a rough outing in the first game back for Tim Rattay (week 3 of the preseason vs. Minnesota), 6/14/0 rushing, but it was a limited appearance in preseason so don't read too much into the poor yards-per-carry average.

The good news for Barlow is that he gets to start the season rushing into the Falcons' defense. They were horrible at run D in 2003, allowing an average of 144.3 rushing yards per game (and an astronomical 21 rushing TDs, second-worst in the NFL last year). They have looked somewhat better playing in a new scheme during preseason, holding Cincinnati to only 28/84/1 rushing in the week 3 preseason victory (the Falcons got stomped by Washington in week 4, but the offense turned the ball over multiple times and gave up return TDs in the bargain, so the D didn't have much to do with the drubbing). Time will tell how much of the improvement is for real, and how much is due to substandard preseason opponents.

Barlow is reported to be fighting through a sore hip coming into regular season. His lead-blockers FBs Fred Beasley (ankle) and Jason Isom (knee) are banged up and may not play in the opener, so that is a concern for Barlow. Brock Gutierrez, C San Francisco has a sore knee. DE/LB Will Overstreet is on IR and lost for the season on Atlanta's side of the ball (shoulder), while backup DE Karon Riley has a sore groin. Both units have injury issues coming into the game.

The forecast for 3Com Park calls for a high of 66F and a low of 57F with a 10% chance of rain. Perfect football weather, in other words.

Kevan Barlow and the 49ers have a solid unit with considerable potential, while the Falcons are hoping that their new defense will better last seasons' embarrassing performance. Given the track record of the Falcons' personnel, we have to give the edge to the 49ers at home in 3Com.

Cincinnati's Rudi Johnson vs. The New York Jets Defense (Good Matchup)

The Bengals bring their team in to face the Jets and their new defensive coordinator Donnie Henderson, who arrived in the offseason from Baltimore (where he coached the Ravens' secondary).

Rudi Johnson arrived last season, supplanting Corey Dillon (now departed to New England) as the starting running back in Cincinnati. Moving into year 2 of his campaign as the starting running back, Johnson looks set to solidify himself as a top NFL back. We feel that he has a bright future, and expect him to be in the top 20 among all fantasy RB in 2004 (#17). In limited action during the week 3 preseason game vs. Atlanta, Johnson scored a TD and ran 9 times for 24 yards.

The New York Jets were very unimpressive last season defending the run, finishing 28th in the league vs. the rush, allowing an average of 143.4 yards per game. They have struggled at points in the preseason in this department, too, allowing 27/140/1 to the New York Giants in week 3, a 5.2 yards per carry average. There is still work to be done in this area, clearly.

Cincinnati's starting LG Eric Steinbach is fighting through an elbow injury right now. Two of the Jets' backup DL, Bryan Thomas (hamstring) and Joey Evans (foot) are dinged up (day-to-day).

The forecast for Giants' Stadium calls for a high of 79F and a low of 60F, with a 30% chance of rain. It should be a great day to play football, assuming the remnant of Hurricane Frances has blown itself out by next Sunday (as is very likely).

The Bengals have a very talented offensive squad, and they bring a solid running attack to the table. The Jets, meanwhile, have yet to prove they can defend the run well - advantage, Cincinnati.

New York Jets' Curtis Martin vs. The Cincinnati Defense (Good Matchup)

Curtis Martin had a very slow start to his 2003 campaign, but finished strong and snuck into the top 20 among all fantasy backs by season's end with 1308 rushing yards, 262 receiving yards, but only 2 TDs (18th fantasy RB). Heading into 2004, though, he is 100% healthy (something he was not last season), and he's firmly ensconced as the #1 RB in New York again. We expect him to do well this year, and see him as the #21 fantasy RB (a decent #2 RB on most fantasy squads). He looked solid against the Giants in week 3 of the preseason, with 12/50/0 rushing and 2/11/0 in part-time work.

Cincinnati's head coach Marvin Lewis has begun to right the franchise's course, but the run defense was still suspect in 2003, coughing up an average of 138.6 rushing yards per game (t-24th in the NFL). Warrick Dunn slashed his way to a 5.9 yards-per-carry average against the Bengals in week 3 of the preseason (9/53/0) while the Falcons as a team put up 30/113/1 on the ground. There is still plenty of room for improvement in this area on the Bengals' part.

Offensive lineman Brent Smith (triceps) is said to be day-to-day for the Jets heading into the season. LDT John Thornton (heel) and WLB Brian Simmons (knee) are both struggling with injuries to start the season (they are considered day-to-day coming into regular season). 2 other Cincinnati LBs, Frank Chamberlain (biceps) and Khalid Abdullah (ankle) are out for the season with injuries.

Curtis Martin looks like he is returning to his classic form, and is coming into the regular season strong. The Bengals are an improving franchise that needs to find ways to put the clamps on opposing rushers more often than they do - advantage, Jets.

Chicago's Thomas Jones vs. The Detroit Defense (Good Matchup)

Thomas Jones seems to have found a happy home in Chicago this season, and looks like a good fit for new offensive coordinator Terry Shea's system. The Bears will face Detroit's defense led by new coordinator (and last year's Bears' head coach) Dick Jauron.

Jones has run the ball well during preseason, with 10/65/0 rushing vs. New Orleans in the week 3 preseason game, for example. We think his prospects are bright during 2004, ranking Jones 14th among all fantasy backs in total FP (projecting 300 carries for 1245 yards and 6 TDs, and 49 receptions for 314 yards and 2 TDs).

The Detroit defensive front in opposition to Jones ranked 15th in the NFL last season against the run, allowing an average of 111.4 rushing yards per game (14 rushing TDs surrendered). The unit stumbled in week 3 of the preseason, giving up 10/117/2 to Baltimore's backup Chester Taylor and 33/164/2 to the Ravens as a team. Obviously, the rushing D is not where Dick Jauron would like it to be just yet.

Part of the Lions' struggles are due to injury issues on the defensive side of the ball: RDE Kalimba Edwards has a hernia (day-to-day) and back up DE Cory Redding is nursing a shoulder injury (day-to-day). WLB James Davis has a sore ankle, while backup Alex Lewis is likely sidelined for a few games with an ankle injury and LB Boss Bailey is done for the season due to a knee injury that required surgery. Chicago's OL is minus Rex Tucker who has an ankle injury and will be out for several weeks. Anthony Thomas, the backup RB to Thomas Jones, has an abdominal/rib injury and hasn't practiced or played in a game for weeks.

The forecast for Soldier Field calls for a high of 81F and a low of 55F with a 20% chance for rain. It should be a great day to play football.

A banged up and soft Lions' run defense is going to have a long day playing against the surging Chicago running attack.

Kansas City's Priest Holmes vs. The Denver Defense (Good Matchup)

Priest Holmes was held in check on the ground by the Broncos in 2003, with 17/97 rushing in week 5 and 12/44 rushing in week 14 (33 receiving yards and 2 TDs in the latter game, as well). Coming into 2004, we see no end to his fantasy dominance in sight, and project him to be the #1 fantasy RB in the land.

Denver's defense was in the top ten vs. The rush last season, holding opponents to 100.3 rushing yards per game, on average (7th in the NFL). However, they were absolutely torched by the Texans on the ground during week 3 of preseason, allowing 32/187/1 TD in the game. The 5.8 yards per carry average is a red flag for the unit heading into regular season.

Holmes has shown no signs of problems with his old hip injury, despite statements from him that his formerly injured hip is still sore nowadays. Donald Willis, OL K.C. is on the PUP due to a back injury. The Broncos' RDT Luther Eliss is out with a chest injury, probably until mid September, and backup LB Terry Pierce is also sidelined right now due to a sore knee.

The forecast for Mile High Stadium calls for a high of 81F and a low of 56F with a 10% chance for rain. It should be a great day to play football.

Holmes is an awesome running back, and the Broncos have looked vulnerable at points during preseason Home-field advantage helps swing this one to an even matchup, but Holmes is a no-brainer start every week anyway.

Philadelphia's Brian Westbrook vs. The New York Giants Defense (Good Matchup)

The Giants are sporting a new defense coordinated by Tim Lewis, who was Pittsburgh's defensive coordinator during the past few years. He inherits a D that ranked 22nd in total yards allowed per game during 2003.

Brian Westbrook is firmly entrenched atop the Eagles' depth chart, thanks to a season-ending knee injury to Correll Buckhalter and the release of FA import Dorsey Levens (leaving Reno Mahe and Thomas Tapeh in reserve behind Westbrook right now). The Eagles are crossing their fingers that he doesn't get banged up. He's our 16th ranked fantasy RB heading into the regular season, and should be a solid #2 RB most weeks. He enjoyed solid success against the Giants last season, with 15/67 rushing and 11 yards receiving (1 TD) during week 7 and 9/48 rushing, 60 yards receiving and 3 scores in week 11.

The Giants were mediocre at defending the run last season, allowing an average of 119.5 yards per game in this phase (18th in the NFL). They have been up and down during preseason, but contained the Jets in week 3 (36/128/0) - they look fairly adequate to kick off the new season.

Three of Philadelphia's OL are injured to start 2004, with LG Jermaine Mayberry nursing a sore hamstring, and backup OL Jamaal Jackson (triceps, IR) and Adrien Clarke (hamstring, out until mid-September) out of circulation to start the season. The Giants' squad enjoys decent health coming into week 1.

The forecast for Lincoln Financial Field calls for a high of 80F and a low of 60F with a 30% chance for rain. Keep an eye on the forecast as Sunday approaches to judge how heavy the rains may be - lots of water could make the field sloppy.

The Eagles have a strong offense and are playing at home against a middle-of-the-road Giants' front seven. Westbrook blew up the Giants' last season, and there is no reason to think he'll suddenly have trouble with them in 2004. Advantage, Eagles.

Pittsburgh's Duce Staley vs. The Oakland Defense (Good Matchup)

The Steelers will face an Oakland D crafted by Rob Ryan, son of the legendary Buddy Ryan, a first time defensive coordinator who was the Patriots' LB coach during both Super-Bowl seasons.

New starting RB Duce Staley roars into the regular season as the top dog in Pittsburgh. He has been strong in the limited preseason action that coach Cowher's staff doled out to Staley, with 7/37/1 rushing in week 3 vs. Philadelphia. He is a strong back that should do well in the featured role - we see him as the 19th best fantasy RB heading into 2004. Jerome Bettis will see action but expect to see Staley carry the rushing load.

The Oakland D has a long way to come back from 2003's disastrous season, when they were dead last in rushing D, allowing an average of 156.9 rushing yards per game. In week 3, they showed progress by containing the anemic Cardinals to 26/87/1 rushing.

Pittsburgh has lost the services of OG Kendall Simmons (knee, out for the season). Staley has a sore knee heading into 2004. Two of Oakland's backup OL are nursing minor injuries (Chris Cooper, calf and DeLawrence Grant, knee) and two LBs Napoleon Harris (knee, day to day) and Sam Williams (shoulder, out for several weeks) are also hurting.

The forecast for Heinz field calls for a high of 77F and a low of 55F, with a 20% chance of precipitation. That's fine football weather in our book.

Oakland has a new scheme, but a lot of the same personnel that struggled last season. Pittsburgh has recommitted themselves to a solid running game, and have a good back to execute their offense - advantage, Pittsburgh.

New Orleans' Deuce McAllister vs. The Seattle Defense (Good Matchup)

Deuce McAllister is making the Saints very glad they traded away Ricky Williams. He does it all, rushing, receiving, blocking - and best of all, he isn't currently touring Asia. He was the 7th best fantasy back in 2003, and projects to be in the top 5 this season at years' end (4th). There is no reason you wouldn't want to start him each and every week of the season.

Seattle's D was in the second tier of NFL rush defenses in 2003, allowing an average of 109.9 yards per game on average (with only 9 rushing scores surrendered in 16 games). They are very respectable, if unspectacular. Some injury issues have cropped up that have impacted their unit, though (see below), but they still stuffed San Diego in week 3 of the preseason (16/40/0).

Starting LB Chad Brown broke his leg (mid-October), and #1 backup D.D. Lewis is out for the season with a stubborn shoulder injury that hasn't healed properly. Marcus Tubbs, DT, has a sore hamstring coming into regular season. New Orleans' OL is in good shape to begin 2004.

This game is being played in the Superdome, so weather won't be a factor.

At home, in front of the Saints' faithful, McAllister should fare well against a steady but unspectacular Seahawks' front seven. Advantage, New Orleans.

Green Bay's Ahman Green vs. The Carolina Defense (Good Matchup)

Ahman Green scared the Packers with a knee injury during the week 3 preseason game, but it was merely a bruised knee. He was held out of the week 4 exhibition for precautionary reasons, but is fine and will start as always in the opener. Green is an elite NFL back trying to repeat a 20 TD season. His starting OL has finally made it on the field together, with C Mike Flanagan playing for 30 snaps in the preseason finale after recovering from patellar tendonitis and LG Mike Wahle playing in his second game of the exhibition season. The Packers are going to gun for a championship this year, and Green will be a huge part of their push. The Packers did not face off against Carolina last season, so the teams aren't familiar with each other.

Carolina, of course, is the reigning NFC Champ and narrowly missed being the NFL champion. They put a tough run D on the field in 2003 (11th ranked rush D in the NFL, allowing an average of 107.6 yards per game) that only allowed 10 rushing scores in 16 games. During week 3 of the exhibition season, the Panthers limited New England to 32/124/0, so they appear to be near their 2003 level coming into 2004.

The Panthers lost Kavika Pittman for the season due to a knee injury, and backup DL Shane Burton is nursing a sore knee. MLB Dan Morgan has sore groin and is considered day-to-day entering the season. Green Bay's situation was explored above.

The forecast for Bank of America Stadium calls for a high of 82F and a low of 62F, with a 40% chance of precipitation. If the rains come down hard around game time, the field could get sloppy and slow.

Green is an elite back, playing a very good run D in their home opener. Advantage Green Bay.

Indianapolis' Edgerrin James vs. The New England Defense (Neutral Matchup)

Edgerrin James was rested during the final preseason game of the year, to ensure that he would come into this rematch of the AFC Championship game in peak form. He is our 7th ranked fantasy back heading into the season, so we look for solid production from James each and every week - but he faces a stiff challenge in week 1, in the Patriots' defense. In the AFC Championship game last January, James put up 18/71/1 rushing vs. The Patriots, so he enjoyed moderate success the last time he faced New England.

New England was very tough to run on last season, averaging a mere 89.6 rushing yards allowed per game in 2003. During week 3 preseason action, the Stephen-Davis-less Panthers had a very tough time moving the ball on the ground, with a mere 51 yards rushing, so the Patriots seem to be picking up 2004 where they left off 2003 - the Panthers are struggling with OL issues heading into the regular season, though.

New England comes into the game minus some depth on the DL (Dana Stubblefield and Rodney Bailey are on IR with injuries), and LB Matt Chatham (undisclosed) is on the PUP right now. Meanwhile the Colts' OL is in pretty good health. James' backups Dominic Rhodes (ankle, groin) and James Mungro (wrist) have minor nicks but should be available to spell James when he needs a breather.

The forecast for Thursday calls for a high of 75F and a low of 61F at Gillette Stadium in Foxboro, MA - but the real story is going to be if and how hard it rains at game time. The early forecasts calls for a 60% chance of rain, but with a giant hurricane hovering in central Florida and predicted to penetrate inland, it's really anybody's guess what conditions will be like at game time. Keep an eye on the forecast as game time approaches - the field could be waterlogged and slick come Thursday night, or there could be perfect conditions.

The Patriots field a formidable defense, and the Colts have a high-octane offense. That sounds like a neutral matchup to us.

Atlanta Falcons' Warrick Dunn vs. The San Francisco Defense (Neutral Matchup)

The Falcons have a new-look west-coast offense, led by new head coach Jim Mora and offensive coordinator Gregg Knapp (the 49ers offensive coordinator in 3 prior seasons). The new Falcons' offense faces the new defensive coordinator for San Francisco, Willy Robinson (most recently the Steelers' secondary coach).

Frankly, a big concern for the Falcons' rushing game is the lack of game-time exposure to the new offense on the part of QB Michael Vick. He looked absolutely horrible in a limited appearance week 4 vs. Washington, and was very vulnerable to the blitz. If Vick can't make the passing game work, running room is going to be hard to find for the Falcons' backs, Warrick Dunn and T. J. Duckett. Dunn is clearly the teams' choice to be the #1 RB in the WCO, and we think he'll be a top 30 fantasy RB in the system (27th on the RB board heading into the regular season). Dunn tore up the Bengals in week 3 of the preseason, with 9/53/0 (a 5.9 ypc average) and 1/2/0 receiving in his touches - but that was with Matt Schaub under center (14/20 for 214 yards, 3 TD and 0 interceptions) while Michael Vick nursed a sore hamstring on the sidelines.

San Francisco was pretty respectable at defending the run during 2003, ranking 9th in the NFL while allowing an average of 105.6 rushing yards per game. They were badly slashed by Minnesota in week 3 of the preseason, though, rolling out the red carpet to the Vikings' backs to the tune of 36/220/1, a 6.1 yards per carry average. Clearly, the 49ers need to work in this area coming into 2004. The arrival of key LB Julian Peterson should help some, but he is behind the learning curve as far as terminology and execution of the new defense is concerned after his long holdout. Noted the Contra Costa Times on 9/4/04 (article by Cam Inman) "One of the most glaring factors in the 49ers' winless exhibition season -- they were the only winless team -- was their run defense, and it's a concern the 49ers are taking seriously despite the meaningless final scores. 'We've got to play better to stop the run and we've got to get it fixed soon,' linebacker Jeff Ulbrich said after Thursday night's 31-15 home loss to the San Diego Chargers, who didn't even play star running back LaDainian Tomlinson. All four of the 49ers' opponents totaled more than 100 yards rushing this exhibition season, including the Chargers' 198-yard effort and the Minnesota Vikings' 220-yard showing last week. Granted, the 49ers' first-string defense never played past halftime, but that unit didn't have many shining moments."

49er DE Brandon Whiting has a shoulder injury and is on the PUP to start the regular season. The Atlanta OL is in good shape. Warrick Dunn saw very limited action in the preseason finale due to a slight thigh strain (and the fact it was week 4 of the preseason).

The forecast for 3Com Park calls for a high of 66F and a low of 57F with a 10% chance of rain. Perfect football weather, in other words.

Atlanta's rushing offense has shown flashes of brilliance during preseason, but the play of Vick is a big question mark heading into the opener. San Francisco's defensive front looks really soft, so far. Neither side seems to have much of an edge in this matchup.

Dallas' Julius Jones / Eddie George vs. The Minnesota Defense (Neutral Matchup)

Dallas' and their rookie starting RB come into Minnesota and have to face new defensive coordinator Ted Cottrell's schemes on Sunday.

As the NFL preseason has roared along into the schedule of games and, now, past that into regular season, one thing has become apparent to us - Eddie George is going to fill a situational role in Dallas, and Julius Jones is the #1 running back in town. We expect the rookie to play hard, make mistakes, learn from them, and play even harder the next snap. Will he be a top 10 fantasy RB at years' end? No, probably not (we rank him as the 31st fantasy RB heading into regular season), but Jones looks to be a key part of the offense. Coach Parcells has publicly stated he expects three RBs to contribute (Jones, George and Richie Anderson) but we think Jones will win out as the primary guy. Against the Titans in week 3 of preseason, Jones put up 8/29/0 against the stout Tennessee front 7. George may see some goalline duty that could diminish Jones' fantasy value to an extent. We'll start to get a feel for how the workload will be shared in this week's game vs. Minnesota.

The Vikings have an all-world offense, but their defense has been the teams' Achilles heel in recent seasons. They were the 17th ranked rush D in 2003 in terms of yards allowed per game (117.4) but gave up the most rushing TDs in the league over 16 games - 22. In week 3 of the preseason, the Vikings managed to hold San Francisco to 18/85/1, but still surrendered yardage at 4.7 yards per carry (hardly stellar). However, half of the 85 yards came on one long 40 yard romp by Jamal Robertson, so for the most part the D squashed the 49er backs (Kevan Barlow had 6/14/0 against the Vikings in a short appearance). There is reason to think the Vikings' rush D may be on the road to improvement under Cottrell's guidance. Time will tell.

Dallas has lost rookie OL Stephen Peterman for the season (two torn knee ligaments, surgery), and RB Eric Bickerstaff tore his Achilles early in training camp (out for the season). Minnesota's rushing D comes into the game largely healthy.

This game is to be played in the Metrodome, so weather is not a factor.

The Cowboys bring an inexperienced RB into the Metrodome to face a mediocre rush D. Given home-field advantage flows to the Vikings, we call this one an even matchup.

Detroit's Kevin Jones vs. The Chicago Defense (Neutral Matchup)

Rookie RB Kevin Jones and company come into Chicago to challenge the Bears under their new, defensively-minded head coach Lovie Smith and his first year defensive coordinator Ron Rivera. The team spent the preseason installing a new-look D in the wake of Dick Jauron's departure.

Jones struggled with a severe hamstring strain early in the preseason, but has seen action during the mid-weeks of the buildup to regular season, including some good work against Cleveland (6/29/0) and Baltimore (7/36/0). He was held out of the preseason finale for precautionary reasons and to make sure his sprained left foot would be healed for this week's regular season opener.

The Bears were average at defending the run last season, allowing 116.6 rushing yards per game by season's end which ranked 16th in the NFL (13 rushing TDs allowed). During the preseason week 3 contest vs. The Saints, Chicago allowed a healthy 29/127/2 on the ground, so there is still a lot of room for improvement in this area.

The Lions enter the game with backup OT Matt Joyce nursing a sore elbow. A trio of Bears' LBs are nursing injuries: starting MLB Brian Urlacher (hamstring) has been limited in practices in recent weeks, but vows to play in the opener. Backup LBs Joe Odom (sore calf) is considered day-to-day while reserve Marcus Reese has a pulled hamstring and probably won't play. If Urlacher can't play on Sunday it would be a huge blow to the Bears defense.

The forecast for Soldier Field calls for a high of 81F and a low of 55F with a 20% chance for rain. It should be a great day to play football.

Jones is a rookie RB on a developing offense, while the Bears have been merely average at run defense in the past and have been unimpressive at points in the preseason This looks like a neutral matchup to us.

Buffalo's Travis Henry vs. The Jacksonville Defense (Neutral Matchup)

Bill's head coach Mike Mularkey brought along his QB coach from Pittsburgh and installed him as the offensive coordinator - they are trying to resuscitate the Bills' passing attack, which is all to the good for Travis Henry and company rushing the ball - the team was way too predictable and easy to defense last season.

In spite of the soft passing attack in 2003, and several painful injuries, Henry pounded the football with solid results, ranking 11th among all fantasy RBs by seasons' end. We think he'll have similar results in 2004, and project him to finish as the 11th overall fantasy back this season, too. He has struggled with a rib injury in recent weeks, and sat out the final 2 preseason games. However, Henry is a tough guy and we expect him to start as usual now that the games count. He'll have an additional obstacle this year in Willis McGahee who will likely steal some playing time away from him.

Jacksonville was very tough to run on last season, ranking second in the NFL with an average of only 87.9 yards allowed per game. During their week 3 preseason contest with Green Bay, the Jaguars held Ahman Green to 9/39/0 rushing and the Packers to 28/90/0 as a team - the Jags look like they'll be hard-nosed in this phase of the game again in 2004.

Buffalo comes into the game in reasonably good health, while the Jaguars LDE Paul Spicer has a minor leg injury, and backup LB Jorge Cordova is out for the season due to a knee injury.

The forecast for Ralph Wilson Stadium calls for a high of 72F and a low of 53F with a 20% chance for rain. It should be a great day to play football.

Henry is a strong back who finds ways to make things happen - Jacksonville fields a very stout defensive front. At Buffalo, we call this a neutral matchup.

New York Giant's Tiki Barber / Ron Dayne vs. The Philadelphia Defense (Neutral Matchup)

The Giants are going back to the future on offense under new head coach Tom Coughlin, looking to employ both Tiki Barber and last years' forgotten back, Ron Dayne. During the preseason, Dayne has been given lots of goalline opportunities and has been in on short-yardage plays, so it looks like Dayne will drain significant scoring opportunities away from Barber. Nonetheless, we believe that Barber (265/1140/4 rushing and 56/403/2 receiving) will be the strongest fantasy play on the squad at RB, and project him to finish the season 20th among all fantasy backs in total FP. Dayne shows up at 41st on our list, credited with 135/540/3 rushing (9/56/0 receiving) in his limited role.

The Eagles' defense was subpar vs. The rush last season, allowing an average of 129.4 yards per game (22nd in the NFL). They haven't been very stout during preseason, either, giving away 42/169/3 to the Steelers in week 3 of the preseason

Part of the Eagles' problem is yet another rash of injuries on the defensive side of the ball. Philadelphia's DL is walking wounded into the regular season, with LDT Corey Simon (back) and RDT Darwin Walker (back) listed as day-to-day; backup DL Hollis Thomas (abdominal) and Paul Grasmanis (Achilles) also day-to-day; and reserve DE Jamaal Green out due to an ankle injury (IR). N.D. Kalu is out for the season with a blown ACL. At LB the news is also bad, as the linebacking corps enters September banged up, with SLB Dhani Jones (ankle, day-to-day) and WLB Nate Wayne (hamstring, day to day) injured, along with backup LBs Ike Reese (knee- mid September) and Jeremiah Trotter (ribs - mid-September). The Giants' OL has struggled during preseason, partly due to injury woes of their own. Ed Ellis is out for the season due to a neck injury. Rich Seubert is out due to a leg injury, and Barry Stokes has a nagging back problem.

Both of these teams come into the divisional matchup banged up, and neither has been overly impressive during preseason This looks like a neutral matchup from where we sit.

Tampa Bay's Charlie Garner vs. The Washington Redskins (Neutral Matchup)

As the bad memories of the Steve Spurrier reign are receding in Washington, a new era of optimism is following the opening of the second Joe Gibbs era. Gregg Williams, a defensive coach at Tennessee before his ill-fated stint as head coach in Buffalo, is now in charge of the Redskins' talented but underachieving defensive unit (25th in the NFL in total yards allowed).

The Buccaneers sweep into FedEx Field without Michael Pittman (serving his suspension for playing bumper-cars with his wife's car), so Charlie Garner needs to answer the call at RB. However, Garner has been hobbled by a sore hamstring and only played a limited role in one preseason game, so the jury is out on how well he is acclimated to his new team and their offense. We're not real enthusiastic about Garner's chances over the entire season, projecting him at 29th in total FP, but right now the Bucs are forced to rely on his legs, with some assists from Mike Alstott. Jamel White may see time as well.

The Redskins were subpar in this phase last year, allowing an average of 138.6 rushing yards per game (and coughing up 20 rushing scores in 16 games). They got trampled by rookie RB Stephen Jackson and company in the week 3 preseason exhibition (Washington's 4th, thanks to the Hall of Fame game) to the tune of 36/151/2, so the remaking of the 'Skins D is still a work in progress.

Matt O'Dwyer , OG Tampa Bay, is out with a pectoral injury (PUP). Two of the Redskins' LB have minor injuries; Mike Barrow (knee) and Chris Clemons (hamstring).

The forecast for FedEx Field calls for a high of 83F and a low of 58F, with a 20% chance of precipitation. That's a nice day to play football in our book.

The Bucs running game isn't particularly impressive at this point, but neither is the Redskins' defense. This looks like an even matchup going into the opener.

Washington's Clinton Portis vs. The Tampa Bay Defense (Neutral Matchup)

Everything is different with this squad in 2004 - Spurrier is out, coach Joe Gibbs is back, along with a staff of experienced football minds (Don Breaux is the offensive coordinator). Clinton Portis is the unchallenged #1 RB. Tampa Bay is in the process of adjusting their D, too (Warren Sapp is a Raider now, for example).

Portis has been all-world playing for Denver, and now he's going to carry the load for Gibbs and the Redskins. He has been playing sparingly during preseason (3/13/0 vs. St. Louis in week 3, for example) while the coaching staff evaluated the other talent on the roster. That's about to change now that the games count. We think Portis is a top 5 back in this system (#5 in projections for 2004), so don't be put off by his light preseason

Tampa Bay's rush D was less dominant last season, but still pushed people around at the goal line (13th in the NFL allowing 109.8 yards per game on average, but only 6 rushing scores all season (t-1st in the NFL)). In preseason week 3, the Bucs beat up on lowly Miami, limiting them to 21/39/1 rushing - but nobody thinks that Miami's squad is top shelf material now that Ricky Williams gone.

The Redskins' LT Chris Samuels (ankle) and RG Randy Thomas (neck) have minor injuries. Jon Jansen is out for the season with a Achilles tendon injury. Tampa Bay's DL is down a couple of players (Lamar King, leg, out for the season; Devone Claybrooks, ankle, out till mid-October). Shelton Quarles, LB, is rehabbing a wrist injury and may not be able to play week 1.

The forecast for FedEx Field calls for a high of 83F and a low of 58F, with a 20% chance of precipitation. That's a nice day to play football in our book.

Portis is a top running back, Tampa Bay brings a hard-nosed run D to the table. This one looks like a neutral matchup to us.

Carolina's Stephen Davis vs. The Green Bay Defense (Neutral Matchup)

Stephen Davis missed the week 3 preseason game vs. New England, but hit the field on a limited basis in week 4 (7/29/0), so his sore knee appears to be improving. We expect him to start on Monday Night Football as usual. Davis finished the 2003 season as the #12 fantasy RB, and we expect him to be near the top 20 this season (#22), making him a decent #2 fantasy RB for most squads. DeShaun Foster struggled in his opportunity against New England in week 3 of the preseason, with 10/16/0, so Davis is not overly threatened in his position as Carolina's top dog coming into regular season.

Green Bay fielded a top-ten rush D last season, allowing 106.3 rushing yards per game on average, with only 10 rushing scores allowed all season. They contained the Taylor-less Jaguars in week 3, limiting Jacksonville to 23/88/0, so the team continues to find ways to make the opposition sweat in this phase of the game. The Packers have a very respectable run D.

Bruce Nelson, OG Carolina, is out for the season due to a hip injury. Two DL are out for Green Bay (James Lee, arm; Donnell Washington, foot (IR)) and backup DL Chuckie Nwokorie is struggling with a sore hamstring. At LB, the Packers' backup Torrance Marshall is nursing a sore hamstring.

Green Bay plays solid run defense, while the Panthers have a good back but an unsettled OL that hasn't been particularly impressive during preseason Home field advantage levels the playing field in this game - we call it a neutral matchup.

Arizona's Emmitt Smith vs. The St. Louis Defense (Tough Matchup)

This matchup features an offense under new head coach Dennis Green and new offensive coordinator Alex Wood clashing with a newly-arrived defensive coordinator in St. Louis (Larry Marmie, replacing Lovie Smith who is now Chicago's head coach).

Emmitt Smith is the anointed starting RB in Arizona, ironically now backed up by Troy Hambrick (the guy who replaced Smith in Dallas last season). We haven't seen much of Smith in the preseason - the Cardinals wanted to reserve his strength for games that counted - so it's hard to see how much gas is in his tank starting 2004. We suspect there isn't much left (Smith is our 40th fantasy RB prospect coming into 2004). Also, the Arizona OL has looked poorly coordinated during preseason, so there probably won't be many gaping holes for Smith to run through while the blockers work on jelling. All in all, the Cardinals offense as a whole looks pretty woeful coming into 2004 (they put up 26/87/1 rushing against the Raiders in week 3 of preseason, but QB Josh McCown led the team rushing effort with 3/35/0).

St. Louis was not a strong run D in 2003, ranking 20th in the NFL allowing 123.8 rushing yards per game. They pretty much stuffed Washington in week 3 of the preseason, limiting the Redskins to 22/62/0 in that contest (Clinton Portis had 3/13/0 in limited work) so there is some reason to suspect the Rams may be improved coming into 2004, however.

DT Jimmy Kennedy is out for the Rams (foot) right now, and LB Jeremy Loyd is on IR (pectoral injury). RB Marcel Shipp (ankle/leg) and FB James Hodgins (shoulder, IR) will miss the season for the Cardinals. The Cardinal OL is relatively healthy, at least.

This game is being played in the Edward Jones Dome, so weather won't be a factor.

Arizona's OL looks a mess, and Emmitt Smith is ancient. St. Louis isn't a powerhouse in this department, but they have a clear edge on the reeling Cardinals. Advantage, St. Louis.

Minnesota's Moe Williams / Onterrio Smith vs. The Dallas Defense (Tough Matchup)

Michael Bennett has an injured knee and will miss week 1, so Onterrio Smith and Moe Williams will lead the Vikings rushing attack. Smith is appealing a four game suspension but will be available for the game although Williams is slated to get the "official" start. Coach Mike Tice is staying pretty quiet on how the two backs will be used.

Williams is a very capable RB, with 392/1645/18 rushing and 125/1226/3 receiving over his 8 year NFL career (a 4.2 yards-per-carry average and a 9.8 yards-per-catch average for his career). He can carry the baton for Bennett until the knee gets ready to go. Just as he did in 2003. During the week 3 game when Bennett injured the knee, Williams put up 3/12/0 (a 4.0 yards-per-carry average).

Dallas, of course, fields a very strong rush D that was #3 in the NFL last season allowing 89.1 rushing yards per game (with only 7 rushing scores allowed all season). They are returning their team largely intact in 2004, and held Tennessee to 24/80 in the week 3 preseason contest (they did surrender 2 rushing scores, though). The Cowboys have a very fine rushing defense coming into 2004.

Aside from Bennett's bum knee, the Vikings starting LT Bryant McKinnie (knee) is dinged up and considered day-to-day coming into regular season. Dallas' front seven are in hale and hearty shape to begin 2004.

This game is to be played in the Metrodome, so weather is not a factor.

Williams is a very capable back playing on a great offensive team, however, the Cowboys have an elite rushing D. Advantage, Dallas.

Jacksonville's Fred Taylor vs. The Buffalo Defense (Tough Matchup)

Jacksonville comes into Buffalo to defensive coordinator Jerry Grays' tough defense. They were the 2nd ranked NFL defense last season in total yards allowed per game.

Fred Taylor has been held out of the final two preseason games due to a strained foot and to make sure that he would be 100% for the regular season opener. He's a veteran NFL star now, so the missed game time shouldn't impact him much (he sat out of most of last year's preseason too and ended up the year the 8th best fantasy RB. We think he'll continue to enjoy strong success in 2004, and project him to finish in the top ten among fantasy RBs (9th). He should be in your lineup whenever he's available.

Buffalo played tough defense last season, as noted above, and was in the top ten vs. The rush (8th, allowing an average of 100.4 yards per game). They were pushed around by the Colts in week 3 of preseason, however, allowing a total of 28/126/2 rushing, so they haven't been too stellar in preseason

Aside from Taylor's sore foot, backup OL Mike Compton has a thumb injury (day-to-day). Backup MLB Angelo Crowell has a sore hamstring coming into the opener.

The forecast for Ralph Wilson Stadium calls for a high of 72F and a low of 53F with a 20% chance for rain. It should be a great day to play football.

Taylor is an excellent running back - the Bills field a stout defense. Giving home field advantage to the Bills tips the scales in their favor.

Oakland's Tyrone Wheatley vs. The Pittsburgh Defense (Tough Matchup)

Tyrone Wheatley has been tapped by new head coach Norv Turner to be the team's featured running back, and he has run solidly in his appearances during preseason In week 3 vs. The Cardinals, Wheatley had 10/54/0 to his credit. In the past, when he has been given the opportunity (like the second half of 2003), Wheatley has proven himself to be a dependable producer (159/678/4 rushing (4.3 ypc) and 12/120/0 receiving in roughly ½ a season as the Oakland starter in 2003).

Pittsburgh is going back to the future with Dick LeBeau (their new/old defensive coordinator in 2004) zone blitzing schemes. They were fairly stout against the run last season, ranking 12th in the league while allowing 108.5 yards per game on average. This year, they were slashed by Philadelphia in week 3, coughing up 27/167/1 in the exhibition game. Ouch.

Mo Collins, OL Oakland, is out for the season due to a knee injury. The Steelers have a fairly healthy defensive front coming into the game, although LB Kendrell Bell has an inflamed shoulder (day-to-day to start the season). Injuries aren't a huge factor in this matchup.

The forecast for Heinz field calls for a high of 77F and a low of 55F, with a 20% chance of precipitation. That's fine football weather in our book.

Pittsburgh plays good run D, while the Raiders are bringing their reclamation-project offense to the table. Given home-field advantage, we give the nod to the Pittsburgh unit in this one.

Tennessee's Chris Brown vs. The Miami Defense (Tough Matchup)

Chris Brown has taken over the Titan's running game (Eddie George and his 3.3 ypc average from 2003 are in Dallas now), and he's looked impressive in his starts during preseason In the week 3 face-off against the tough Cowboys D, he ripped off a long run of 18 yards and put up 8/35/1 in a limited appearance. He is on a potent offensive unit with dangerous receivers and an MVP QB, so the opposing defenses must respect the passing game. Brown should find room to roam this season (we project him to end up the season 13th in FP among RBs).

Miami fields a stubborn run D that allowed a mere 90.8 yards per game on average (5th in the NFL) during 2003. They return a talented roster for 2004, and have played well (despite the abysmal offense they are saddled with) in preseason Tampa Bay managed to rush for 28/108/1 during the week 3 exhibition game between the teams. They are a top unit.

Both teams come into the game in reasonably good health.

The forecast for Pro Player Stadium calls for a high of 91F and a low of 77F, with a 40% chance of precipitation. Watch the weather closely here as it could be severe.

Brown is playing very well coming into the season. Miami's defense is a top shelf unit that will give the Titans' starter a stern test. In Pro Player Stadium, we give the edge to Miami.

Cleveland's Lee Suggs / William Green vs. The Baltimore Defense (Bad Matchup)

Over the course of preseason, Lee Suggs has emerged as the top Cleveland running back. William Green is #2, but has made some pretty runs when he's touched the ball during preseason Together, they make up a good-looking 1-2 punch for the Browns, and head into week 1 in a revitalized offense. Suggs missed the final preseason game due to a shoulder stinger, so his owners will want to watch this very closely. We don't like how the Browns are being so quiet about this. Suggs projects as the #24 fantasy RB in 2004 heading into the regular season, so we think he'll do well in his new role. Suggs had 4/31/1 against the Chiefs in week 3 of preseason, and Green ripped of 3/53/0 during the contest. Those are some very encouraging numbers for the Browns' faithful.

Baltimore, of course, touts an awesome defense headlined by LB Ray Lewis. They ranked #6 against the rush in 2003 (an average of 96 rushing yards per game allowed) and gave up a minuscule 6 rushing TDs during the regular season. Detroit managed 22/73/0 against the Ravens in week 3 preseason action - the Ravens look as strong as ever heading into regular season.

Aside from Suggs' shoulder, OL Kelvin Garmon had a tweaked hamstring in the final game, but is fine and not expected to miss time; and Joaquin Gonzalez, a backup OT, has a banged up knee (day-to-day). Chad Beasley, OG, is on IR due to an ankle injury. Both starting DEs in Baltimore are nicked up (day-to-day), Anthony Weaver has a sore ankle and Marques Douglas is nursing a sore elbow. LB Peter Boulware starts 2004 on the PUP due to a knee injury.

Cleveland's rushing game is starting 2004 on a high note, but the Ravens remain an elite unit and will test the Browns to their limits in week 1. Definitely keep an eye on Lee Suggs' status.

Miami's Travis Minor / Sammy Morris / Lamar Gordon vs. The Tennessee Defense (Bad Matchup)

Who is the starter in Miami? Can either Travis Minor or Sammy Morris make something happen in the rushing attack? How soon will newly acquired RB Lamar Gordon start? All these questions and more remain unanswered at the dawn of the regular season. We advise fantasy owners to look high and low for other options before even thinking about starting one of the Dolphins' current backs this week. Minor and Morris have shown us zip in preseason, frankly. Gordon just got to Miami Wednesday and the team is saying he will not start this weekend although we expect him to be the starter by week 2.

Tennessee plays fantastic run D, ranking 1st in the NFL during 2003 by holding opponents to a league-low 80.9 yards per game. They also only allowed 10 TDs in 16 games last season. Dallas managed 23/65/1 against the Titans in week 3 of the preseason. 'Nuff said.

Eric Wilson, OL Miami, is out for the season with a knee injury. Two of Tennessee's DL are dinged up to begin the season, DE Carlos Hall has a sore ankle and backup DL Bo Schobel has a sore foot. Backup LBs Brad Kassell (leg) and Jordan Kramer (toe) are dealing with minor injuries, while starting LB Peter Sirmon is on IR (knee injury).

The forecast for Pro Player Stadium calls for a high of 91F and a low of 77F, with a 40% chance of precipitation. If the rains come down hard around game time, the field could get sloppy and slow.

Miami has a disaster on offense, and it's about to become an apocalypse (once the Titans are done with them).