Rushing Matchups - Week 10
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Posted 11/11 by Mark Wimer and Joe Bryant, Exclusive to Footballguys.com
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Hi Folks,
Here's our look at the Rushing Matchups for this week.
PLEASE NOTE: This does NOT replace the Cheatsheet ranking. The Cheatsheet rankings
are the final say on where we see a player for that week. The Matchup Breakdowns
are simply one more tool in the box when it comes to helping choose your lineup.
Also note, just because a player has a "bad" matchup, it does NOT mean
he's not a starter in your league. If Priest Holmes is playing the toughest rush
defense in the league, that just means he's got a tough matchup that week. He's
also your starter. In the same way, if the worst RB on your roster has a "great"
matchup, that doesn't necessarily mean you start him, it just means he'll likely
fare better this week than he normally would.
Bottom line, the cheatsheets are the final word.
Let's jump to it.
Joe
Bye Weeks
Miami's Sammy Morris
San Diego's LaDainian Tomlinson
Denver's Reuben Droughns
Oakland's Tyrone Wheatley and company
Quick Index
Great Matchups:
San Francisco's Kevan Barlow vs. The Carolina Defense
Washington's Clinton Portis vs. The Cincinnati Defense
Kansas City's Priest Holmes/Derrick Blaylock vs. The New Orleans Defense
Green Bay's Ahman Green vs. The Minnesota Defense
Good Matchups:
Buffalo's Willis McGahee vs. The New England Defense
Carolina's "Rushing Attack" vs. The San Francisco Defense
Chicago's Thomas Jones/Anthony Thomas vs. The Tennessee Defense
Tennessee's Chris Brown vs. The Chicago Defense
Jacksonville's Fred Taylor vs. The Detroit Defense
Indianapolis' Edgerrin James vs. The Houston Defense
Houston's Domanick Davis vs. The Indianapolis Defense
New York Giants' Tiki Barber vs. The Arizona Defense
Arizona's Emmitt Smith vs. The New York Giants' Defense
Seattle's Shaun Alexander vs. The St. Louis Defense
Atlanta's Warrick Dunn/T.J. Duckett vs. the Tampa Bay Defense
Neutral Matchups:
Baltimore's Jamal Lewis vs. The New York Jets' Defense
New England's Corey Dillon vs. The Buffalo Defense
New Orleans' Deuce McAllister vs. The Kansas City Defense
Minnesota's Onterrio Smith/Michael Bennett/Moe Williams vs. The Green Bay Defense
Pittsburgh's Jerome Bettis/Duce Staley/Verron Haynes vs. The Cleveland Defense
St. Louis' Marshall Faulk/Steven Jackson vs. The Seattle Defense
Tampa Bay's Michael Pittman vs. The Atlanta Defense
Dallas' RBBC vs. The Philadelphia Defense
Tough Matchups:
New York Jets' Curtis Martin vs. The Baltimore Defense
Philadelphia's Brian Westbrook vs. The Dallas Defense
Bad Matchups:
Cincinnati's Rudi Johnson vs. The Washington Defense
Detroit's RBBC vs. The Jacksonville Defense
Cleveland's Lee Suggs/William Green vs. The Pittsburgh Defense
Kansas City's Priest Holmes/Derrick Blaylock
vs. The New Orleans Defense (Great Matchup)
As of midweek, Priest Holmes doesn't look good to play this week, but stay
tuned. He is walking around on crutches, and has commented "This is not
the kind of injury where I can grit my teeth and play through it. This is the
kind of injury that needs some rest. And if after I rest, the knee still doesn't
feel right, then it's something where we would have to explore surgery."
The team is preparing to play without Holmes - it looks like Derrick Blaylock
will be the man this week at least. He has rushed 32/150/4 this season, with
93 yards receiving to date - we think he'll be a more-than-capable option behind
K.C.'s excellent OL (tied for 5th in the NFL averaging 4.6 yards per carry).
Blaylock will get an easy tune-up if Holmes is going to miss some time, because
the Saints are a joke in this phase of the game. They allow an average of 142.6
rushing yards per game this season, and have given up 10 rushing scores to date.
They are right on that pace over the past 4 weeks, allowing an average of 141
rushing yards and .3 TDs per game during that span, including 35/152/1 allowed
to the Chargers last week. They are very soft.
Aside from Holmes' balky knee (doubtful), the Chiefs list G Will Shields (hip)
and T John Welbourn (knee) - both are probable to play. New Orleans had to do
without LB Courtney Watson last week, but he's not on the Wednesday injury report.
This game is to be played in the Superdome - weather won't be an issue.
The Chiefs will trample the Saints this week.
Washington's Clinton Portis vs. The Cincinnati
Defense (Great Matchup)
Clinton Portis is an all-world talent - unfortunately, his team's passing attack
is decidedly subpar. That makes it tough for Portis to do much in the redzone,
as the opposing defenders don't have to respect the pass much, and can therefore
key on the running game. Nobody could have predicted he'd drop off so dramatically
(2 rushing TDs and 1 receiving TD in 8 games), but the reality of this situation
is that 6 pointers are in short supply among Washington's offensive players
in general. Portis is on a pace of 51/217/0 rushing and 8/28/0 receiving over
the last 3 weeks (with a passing score), ranking 15th among all fantasy RBs
during that time-span. He's in for a fun game this week, though.
Cincinnati is awful in this phase of the game. They have allowed an average
of 149.6 rushing yards per game (worst in the NFL) while surrendering 6 scores
to date. Over the past 4 weeks, the Bengals average 134 rushing yards allowed
per contest, and .3 TDs (but that average includes a subpar. Cowboy's performance
of 27/109/0 last week). They are the NFL's welcome mat this year, folks.
DE Carl Powell (knee, questionable) and DT Terrance Martin (finger, probable)
were both unable to play last week for the Bengals. LB Caleb Miller has a sore
ankle (questionable), DE Duane Clemons has a sore neck (probable), and DE Justin
Smith a sore shoulder (probable).Washington is in decent health at the halfway
point of the season, though RB Rock Cartwright has a sore thumb (probable).
The Forecast for FedEx Field calls for a high of 49F and a low of 33F with
a 10% chance for rain. That's the kind of day to enjoy tailgating and a game
of football!
Portis should enjoy a productive game on Sunday.
San Francisco's Kevan Barlow vs. The Carolina
Defense (Great Matchup)
Kevan Barlow put up a TD last week, to go along with 18/61 rushing and 2/18/0
receiving. He's struggled this year, especially during "Ken Dorsey"
weeks, and meanwhile the OL has not been helping him very much (the team averages
3.6 rushing yards per carry, 28th in the league in that department). Through
all the adversity, Barlow has managed 135/484/4 rushing and 20/152/0 receiving
in the first half of the season (25th ranked fantasy RB to date). If Rattay
can stay under center during the second half of the year, Barlow should easily
top 1000 yards rushing and 300 yards receiving, with 8-10 scores. That's nothing
to sniff at, folks. This week should be an especially good week to be a Barlow
owner. Why? The woeful Panthers are coming to town.
Carolina limited the Raiders in the yardage department last week (28/69/0),
but they got stomped at the goalline, coughing up 3 scores. The team is 29th
in the NFL this year allowing an average of 142.1 rushing yards per game, with
a total of 13 scores surrendered to date - that's tops in the NFL. Over the
past 4 weeks, they average 125 rushing yards and 2.0 TDs allowed - when we wrote
woeful, we meant woeful. LB Will Witherspoon was an IDP star last week, though,
with 7 solo tackles, 2 assists, 1 interception and 3 passes defensed. DL Julius
Peppers had 4 solo tackles and 2 sacks to land in the top ten among IDP DL.
Carolina missed their MLB Dan Morgan last week (concussion, questionable),
and DT Kindal Moorehead missed the game too due to his injured shoulder (questionable).
San Francisco has been playing without C Jeremy Newberry (knee, questionable)
and Gs Eric Heitmann (ankle, not listed) and Rob Murphy (stinger, not listed)
were both injured last week. FB Fred Beasley has a sore ankle (probable). Injuries
are a factor for both of these teams.
The forecast for Monster Park calls for a high of 60F and a low of 51F with
a 30% chance of rain. Unless the rain comes down really hard during the game,
it should be a good day to play a game of football.
Barlow has a lot of talent, and he'll show us what he can do this week against
the ultra-soft Panthers.
Green Bay's Ahman Green vs. The Minnesota
Defense (Great Matchup)
Ahman Green so far in 2004: 159/719/6 rushing, with 23/171/1 receiving - he's
the 6th best fantasy RB to date. Green Bay averages 4.3 yards per carry this
season. He racked up 24/70/2 rushing and 4/73/0 receiving against the 3rd-ranked
Washington D in the game before the bye week - it's all good in this phase of
the game for the Packers.
Minnesota does not resemble the Washington defense in this phase of the game.
They have given up the second-most TDs in the league to opposing rushers (12
to date). They average 132 rushing yards and 1.8 rushing scores allowed over
the past 4 weeks. Indianapolis exploited them for 31/144/0 rushing last week.
The Vikings' defensive front is soft. Kevin Williams was a top IDP DL last week,
with 6 solo tackles, 1 assist and a sack.
Green Bay comes into this one off a bye week, and are ready to rock, with only
G Marco Rivera dinged up (ankle, probable). The Vikings list LBs Chris Claiborne
(calf) and Raonall Smith (concussion) - both are questionable.
The forecast for Lambeau field calls for a high of 48F with a low of 33F, and
a 10% chance of precipitation. Looks like a fine day for football is on tap
in Wisconsin.
Green and the Packers should steamroll over the Vikings' defense at Lambeau
this weekend.
New York Giants' Tiki Barber vs. The Arizona
Defense (Good Matchup)
Tiki Barber has slowed down a bit in recent weeks (but he's still a top 5 fantasy
RB, just not #1) - he had 21/72/2 rushing (a low yardage total for him) and
4/59/0 receiving last week to rank 3rd among all fantasy RBs. Over the past
3 weeks, he's notched 67/243/4 rushing and 12/171/1 receiving, placing him at
4th among all fantasy RBs for that span. Yeah, that's slowing down for Barber
this season. Start him if you've got him.
Arizona's rush D is a paradox, as they rank 26th in the NFL allowing 126.6
rushing yards per game, but are tied for 1st giving up only 3 TDs this season.
They are tough in the redzone In the past 4 weeks, the numbers make a little
more sense, as they average 122 rushing yards allowed per game, and 1.0 TDs
per contest. Miami ripped them up for 31/168/1 last week - the rush D is playing
down to their season yardage average at this point in the season.
The Giants have some issues along the OL this week, with C Shaun O'Hara still
battling a leg infection (questionable) and T Luke Petitgout coming off a concussion
(questionable). RB Michael Cloud has a sore back (questionable). Arizona's LB
Raynoch Thompson is nursing a sore knee (probable).
The forecast for Sun Devil Stadium calls for a high of 69F and a low of 49F
with a 30% chance for rain. Unless the rain pours down at game-time, it will
be a great day to play football.
Barber and company should have plenty of opportunities to make good things
happen against the fading Cardinal's rush defense.
Arizona's Emmitt Smith vs. The New York
Giants' Defense (Good Matchup)
Arizona's Emmitt Smith just keeps finding his way into the endzone (19/42/1
rushing last week, with 1/3/0 receiving). His totals this season: 151/565/6
rushing and 9/67/0 receiving through 8 games - those put him at #16 among all
fantasy RBs in fantasy points per game for the first half of the season (13.04
per game). Troy Hambrick is quietly making contributions each week, with 4/70/0
rushing and 2/5/0 receiving last week. The Cardinals' running game isn't overpowering,
but they can make some plays
Chicago battered the Giants for 34/122/2 last week, and both starting DEs were
lost for the season as a result of injuries sustained in the game. It was not
a good week for the Giants' defensive front. They are the 20th ranked unit in
the NFL allowing an average of 118.8 rushing yards per game, with 5 scores given
away to date. Over the past 4 weeks, they've been on pace surrendering 110 rushing
yards per game, but 1.7 scores per contest. Osi Umenyiora was a top IDP DL last
week, with 3 solo tackles, a sack, a fumble recovery and a pass defensed, and
Fred Robbins also cracked the top ten with 5 solo tackles, an assist, and 2
sacks. Nick Greisen made the top ten IDP LBs with 3 solo tackles, 5 assists,
a fumble recovery and 2 passes defensed.
DEs Michael Strahan (torn pectoral muscle) and Keith Washington (torn ACL in
his knee) are both out for the season. Osi Umenyiora and Lance Legree figure
to move into the starting lineup with those two out. LB Barrett Green (knee/ankle)
is questionable to play this week. Arizona is in good health, listing Josh Scobey
(knee) as probable.
The forecast for Sun Devil Stadium calls for a high of 69F and a low of 49F
with a 30% chance for rain. Unless the rain pours down at game-time, it will
be a great day to play football.
The Giants are staggering in this phase, and now their line is in flux thanks
to twin injuries - advantage, Cardinals.
Chicago's Thomas Jones/Anthony Thomas vs.
The Tennessee Defense (Good Matchup)
Here's what Bear's offensive coordinator Terry Shea has to say on the Thomas
Jones/Anthony Thomas situation in Chicago: "Anthony certainly will be figured
into our game plan as much as ever and probably even more so with his performance
these last couple games. I've said it all along - thank goodness we have two
quality running backs
(Coach) Lovie (Smith) has a policy that a starter,
if given equal opportunity and he is still recognized as being as good as the
backup player who filled in for him, he deserves to have that opportunity to
regain a starting position. But we'll work them both. Believe me, we will."
(Daily Southtown article by Gene Chamberlin, 10/11/04) Take from that what you
will, but to us it sounds like that when Thomas Jones gets back from his sprained
toe, the workload at RB will be shared between Thomas and Jones to some extent.
Thomas has been excellent since stepping in for Jones, with 58/335/2 rushing
and 7/55/0 receiving over the last 3 weeks (19th best fantasy RB in that span).
Jones is listed as "questionable" this week due to his injured toe.
Rudi Johnson was limited to 17/57/1 by the Titans two weeks ago - they went
into the bye week with a win and on a high note in this phase of the game. The
Titans are in the top 10 among NFL rush defenses this season, allowing 108.4
rushing yards per game, with 8 scores surrendered to date. Over the past 4 weeks
they've given up 102 rushing yards and 1.0 TDs per game, on average. They are
respectable but not awesome in this department.
Aside from Jones, the Bears list C Olin Kreutz (elbow), G Rex Tucker (elbow)
and G Ruben Brown (knee) - all are probable to play. LB Rocky Calmus (back)
and DE Carlos Hall (knee) are listed as questionable by Tennessee.
The forecast for The Coliseum calls for a high of 54F and a low of 41F with
a 10% chance of precipitation. It should be a fine day to play football.
Chicago's rushing attack has been powerful no matter who is taking the ball,
while the Titans contain but do not shut down their opponents. This looks like
a good matchup for the Bears.
Tennessee's Chris Brown vs. The Chicago
Defense (Good Matchup)
Chris Brown went into the bye week with a bang, abusing the Bengals for 32/147/1
rushing with 4/23/0 receiving. He has been stellar this year, ranking as the
11th best fantasy RB with 166/810/5 rushing and 17/128/0 receiving over 8 games
- the team averages 4.7 yards per carry with Brown in the mix, tied for 3rd
best in the NFL. The guy is almost a lock for 100+ yards per game rushing, and
should be in your starting lineup.
Chicago's rush D is of the bend-but-don't-break variety, allowing an average
of 123.6 yards per game to date, but holding the opposition to a mere 4 TDs
in 8 games. 2 of those TDs were given up last week to Tiki Barber (21/72/2),
though. Over the past 4 weeks, the Bears average 127 rushing yards and .8 TDs
per game - they can be "gotten to", but it's not easy. Alex Brown
was an IDP monster at DL last week with 6 solo tackles, 2 assists, 4 sacks,
a forced fumble and a pass defensed. Talk about a one-man wrecking crew.
DE Adewale Ogunleye has a sore knee (probable), DT Tommie Harris is ill (probable)
and DT Alfonso Boone has a sore back (probable). LB Brian Urlacher is probable
(hamstring). Tennessee comes into this game off a bye week and lists Brown with
his ever-present toe injury (questionable) and T Fred Miller (ankle, questionable).
The forecast for The Coliseum calls for a high of 54F and a low of 41F with
a 10% chance of precipitation. It should be a fine day to play football.
Brown should cruise against the giving Chicago defensive front - just don't
look for multiple TDs and you won't be disappointed.
Carolina's "Rushing Attack" vs.
The San Francisco Defense (Good Matchup)
The wheels have fallen off the Carolina rushing attack, folks. Stephen Davis's
knee appears to be chronically inflamed - he keeps suffering swelling in the
joint - and the remaining backups just can't seem to get the job done. With
the constant uncertainty surrounding Davis' status, and the lack of anyone else
capable to do the job consistently, we suggest you look elsewhere for your fantasy
backs, unless and until Davis can prove to us he has finally healed up his balky
knee.
San Francisco's defense has a turnstile as it's model, as the 49ers are giving
up gobs of points (12 rushing scores to date) and allow 123.9 rushing yards
per game on average. Over the past 4 weeks, the average shoots up to 157 yards
allowed per game, with 1.7 TDs surrendered on average. Ouch! They allowed 37/184/2
to the voracious Seahawks last week - it's all bad in this phase of the game
for the 49ers. However, the busy LBs racked up a lot of fantasy points - Jamie
Winborn (6 solo tackles, 1 assist, 1 sack and 2 passes defensed) and Derek Smith
(8 solo tackles, 3 assists, .5 sacks, and 1 pass defensed) were both top 10
material.
DE Andrew Williams is missing action lately (shin, questionable), while DT
Bryant Young suffered a stinger last week (probable). LBs Richard Seigler (foot,
doubtful) and Ray Wells (ankle, out) both missed last week's game. Julian Peterson
is on IR. Injuries have decimated the 49er defensive front. Carolina's woes
extend to RB Brad Hoover (back, questionable) and, of course, Davis (questionable).
The forecast for Monster Park calls for a high of 60F and a low of 51F with
a 30% chance of rain. Unless the rain comes down really hard during the game,
it should be a good day to play a game of football.
This is a good matchup for the Panthers, but will they have the personnel available
to take advantage of the favorable matchup? We doubt it.
Buffalo's Willis McGahee vs. The New England
Defense (Good Matchup)
Willis McGahee has staked his claim to lead this team's rushing attack, and
he made that claim with authority last week, slapping down 37/132/1 rushing
and 2/11/0 receiving. The fact is, the Bills offense runs a lot better when
McGahee is in the backfield, so look for him to see the ball a lot in coming
weeks. 83/292/3 rushing and 4/21/0 receiving over the past 3 weeks slots McGahee
as the 7th best fantasy RB during that span. The Bills are still not opening
very big holes for their backs, though - the team is tied for 29th in the NFL
averaging 3.5 yards per carry. The last time these teams met, back in week 4,
Travis Henry was in the saddle, so we can't rely on history in this matchup.
New England bounced back from their first loss in over a year last week, containing
Marshall Faulk and company (19/81/0). They are not usually that stout, giving
up an average of 119 rushing yards per game in 2004 (21st in the NFL), with
5 rushing scores allowed to date. Over the last 4 weeks, that average creeps
up to 128 rushing yards allowed per game, with .5 scores given up each week.
However, the team is headed in the right direction, keeping the Rams under 100
yards rushing.
New England's defensive front is fairly healthy (you can't say that about their
secondary), listing LB Matt Chathams as questionable (hamstring) and LB Larry
Izzo (knee) as probable. Buffalo's RT Mike Williams suffered a scary-looking
neck injury last week, but didn't do permanent damage (questionable).
The forecast for Gillette Stadium calls for a high of 40F and a low of 29F
with a 40% chance for precipitation. If the snow comes down thickly - possibly
mixed with sleet (or as sleet) - footing/ball handling could become a factor.
Keep an eye on the forecast as the game approaches.
McGahee is off to a roaring start, while the Patriots are just average in this
phase of the game most weeks. Advantage, Buffalo.
Jacksonville's Fred Taylor vs. The Detroit
Defense (Good Matchup)
Taylor went into the bye week pretty banged up, but he's had time to get himself
back to 100% -- at least, his fantasy owners hope that's the case. He has been
uninspiring in his appearances lately, landing at 31st among all fantasy RBs
with 23/116/0 rushing and 6/77/0 receiving in his final 2 games before the bye
week. Keep an eye on his injury status as the lineup submission deadline gets
closer if you are a Taylor owner. With a new QB under center, the Jags would
love to establish the running game early and with authority, so Taylor has good
prospects for a lot of touches this week
Detroit fields a mediocre rush defense that averages 113.5 rushing yards allowed
per game (14th in the NFL) and they have surrendered 6 scores to date. Over
the past 4 weeks, the Lions coughed up an average of 129 yards and .5 scores
per contest - not horrible, but not outstanding, either. They are very much
a what-you-see-is-what-you-get bunch.
LBs Boss Bailey (knee, out) and Donte Curry (knee, doubtful) continue to miss
time for the Lions. DE Jared DeVries is questionable (groin). Jacksonville comes
into this game off a bye, and doesn't report any injuries in this phase of the
game.
The forecast for Alltel Stadium calls for a high of 73F with a low of 60F and
a 10% chance of rain. Except for all those hurricanes, Floridians enjoy lovely
weather, don't they?
Taylor is an elite back when healthy, while the Lions are just average. Advantage,
Jaguars.
Houston's Domanick Davis vs. The Indianapolis
Defense (Good Matchup)
Domanick Davis has been very productive since returning to the lineup after
his latest injury - 41/127/2 rushing and 7/58/0 in 2 games, which puts him at
#12 among all fantasy RBs in fantasy points per game over the last 3 weeks.
All this, despite an OL that is 31st in the NFL averaging 3.3 yards per carry
this season - Davis is doing well, all things considered. The first of a 2-game
set between the division rivals is going down on Sunday in this matchup - the
Texans will be at their best, hopefully.
Indianapolis' rush D is nothing special, ranking 16th in the NFL allowing an
average of 116 yards and a total of 7 TDs to date. Over the past 4 weeks, they
are on a pace of 156 rushing yards allowed per game, with 1.3 TDs surrendered
- as you can see, they are headed in the wrong direction. 24/138/1 was the total
that the Vikings laid on Indianapolis on Monday night.
Indy will go without LB Kenyon Whiteside (knee, out), while Houston is down
RB Tony Hollings (hamstring, doubtful) and may miss T Todd Wade (ankle, questionable).
This game is being played in the RCA Dome, so weather won't be a factor.
Davis is rounding back into form, while the Colts are playing poorly right
now. Advantage, Texans.
Indianapolis' Edgerrin James vs. The Houston
Defense (Good Matchup)
Edgerrin James and the Colts' OL reasserted their running game on Monday Night
Football, cramming the ball down the Viking's throat for a total of 31/144/0.
James also added 5/56/0 receiving. This may be the most potent offense in the
NFL right now folks. Start him if you've got him.
Houston's defense is one of the best teams in the redzone, having allowed only
3 TDs all season (117 yards per game on average, 19th in the NFL). Lately they
have allowed an average of 93 yards per game and 0 TDs (over the last 4 weeks)
- that's tough. Denver managed 36/139/0 vs. The Texans, so they have dropped
off their pace a bit in the last week. Seth Payne was a top IDP DL last week,
with 4 solo tackles, 4 assists, and 1 sack. Jay Foreman cracked the top ten
at LB, with 6 solo tackles, 4 assists and 1 pass defensed.
Indianapolis lists G Rick DeMulling (chest, questionable). Houston is in good
shape in this phase of the game.
This game is being played in the RCA Dome, so weather won't be a factor.
James is an elite back on an elite offense, while the Texans are tough to score
on but fairly generous with the yardage - we think Indianapolis has the guns
to broach the Texans' defensive front. Advantage, Indianapolis.
Seattle's Shaun Alexander vs. The St. Louis
Defense (Good Matchup)
Shaun Alexander owned the Rams the last time these teams faced off, back in
week 5 (23/150/1 rushing with 1/4/0 receiving). Last week, he tore apart the
49ers for 26/160/2 - he has 70/420/3 rushing and 3/13/1 receiving to his credit
in the last 3 games (since coach Holmgren reemphasized Alexander's role in the
offense) - start him if you've got him. The team averages 4.6 yards per carry
this season, tied for 5th in the NFL this year.
Corey Dillon and company trampled the Rams last week for 32/147/1 in the Patriot's
bounce-back victory. Over the past 4 weeks, the Rams have surrendered an average
of 106 yards and 1.3 TDs in this phase of the game - much better than their
season average of 131.9 rushing yards per game. They regressed against the Patriots
last week, though. The Rams just aren't very strong in this phase of the game.
Damione Lewis was a top IDP DL last week, with 6 solo tackles, 1 assist, 1 sack,
a forced fumble and a pass defensed.
Neither team has injuries of note to report.
This game will be played in the Edward Jones Dome, so weather isn't going to
be a factor.
Alexander and the Seahawks should enjoy a strong outing against the Rams on
Sunday.
Atlanta's Warrick Dunn/T.J. Duckett vs.
The Tampa Bay Defense (Good Matchup)
T.J. Duckett and Warrick Dunn split the rushing scores in week 8, with Duckett
gaining 8/45/1 vs. The Broncos, while Dunn put up 11/33/1 - Michael Vick led
the team with 12/115/0 that day. Dunn added 1/7/0 receiving. The backs have
been sharing the load more often in the last few weeks. Dunn has amassed 26/82/1
rushing and 3/79/0 in the last 2 games, while Duckett has 12/53/1 rushing to
his credit in that span. They both benefit from an OL that is opening holes
wide enough to generate a 4.9 ypc average this season.
Tampa allowed 30/105/1 to the Chiefs last week in this phase of the game. They
have averaged 92 rushing yards and 1.0 TDs allowed per game over the past 4
weeks, much better than their season average of 116 rushing yards per game (5
TDs to date). The Buccaneers have stiffened their defensive front as the season
goes along. Derrick Brooks was a top IDP LB last week, with 9 solo tackles,
4 assists, and 1 pass defensed.
Atlanta comes into this game off a bye week, so they should be in good shape,
health-wise. Tampa lists DT Anthony McFarland (triceps, questionable).
This game is to be played in the Georgia Dome, so weather won't be a factor.
The Falcons have a powerful tandem of backs, and the laser passes that Vick
throws forces defenses to always respect the passing game. Tampa fields a decent
but not overpowering defensive front - we think the Falcons have the edge in
this matchup.
New England's Corey Dillon vs. The Buffalo
Defense (Neutral Matchup)
Corey Dillon stuffed a TD into the endzone the last time these two teams met
(19/79/1 rushing with 3/23/0 receiving), one of 3 the Bills have allowed this
season - Dillon has been effective against the Bills so far as a Patriot. Over
the past 3 weeks, Dillon has 47/227/1 rushing and 2/19/0 receiving in 2 games
(11th best fantasy RB in fantasy points per game) - he's been running strong
since returning from injury, with 25/112/1 and 2/19/0 vs. St. Louis last week.
Buffalo put the brakes on Curtis Martin and the Jets (averaging a gaudy 4.7
yards per carry this season), limiting them to 25/88/0 (a 3.5 yards per carry
average). This team can play rush D and has proven it all year, averaging 95.9
rushing yards allowed per game (4th in the NFL) and they are tied for 1st with
only 3 rushing scores given up to date. Over the past 4 weeks, they've been
a tad softer, allowing 107 per game and .5 TDs per contest. This is still a
top-shelf run defense, though, make no doubt about it.
New England has been doing without T Tom Ashworth, who has now been placed
on IR. DE Constantine Ritzmann missed last week's game for the Bills (foot,
out).
The forecast for Gillette Stadium calls for a high of 40F and a low of 29F
with a 40% chance for precipitation. If the snow comes down thickly - possibly
mixed with sleet (or as sleet) - footing/ball handling could become a factor.
Keep an eye on the forecast as the game approaches.
We expect the Bills to make running room scarce for Dillon and company, but
the offense has home-field advantage and Dillon did well against these guys
the first time around. We call it an even matchup between two talented squads.
Baltimore's Jamal Lewis vs. The New York
Jets' Defense (Neutral Matchup)
Jamal Lewis played ably in his return to the lineup last week, with a total
of 105 yards from scrimmage and a score (22/81/1 rushing and 2/24/0 receiving).
The Ravens played fairly well in the absence of LT Jonathan Ogden, though Lewis
3.7 ypc average reflected the lack of Ogden (the team averages 4.2 yards per
carry this season). As a team the Ravens had 28/106/1 rushing last week.
The Jets' allowed 37/132/1 to Willis McGahee last week, and have been surrendering
yards and TDs at a pace of 117 yards and .5 TDs per game over the past 4 weeks
- they are usually fairly stout in this phase of the game, as evidenced by their
11th ranking in rushing yards allowed per game so far this season (108.5 per
game), with 5 scores allowed to date. Not too shabby. LBs Jonathan Vilma (10
solo tackles, 5 assists and a pass defensed) and Eric Barton (10 solo tackles
and 3 assists) were in the top ten IDP LBs.
Ogden is listed as questionable for the game this week, along with T Ethan
Brooks (thigh, probable). The Jets are down LB Jason Glenn (broken forearm,
out), and DE Shaun Ellis strained his groin last week (questionable). DE John
Abraham (illness) and LB Sam Cowart (knee) are both probable. Both squads have
injury issues coming into this game.
The forecast for New Jersey calls for a high of 47F and a low of 35F with a
10% chance of precipitation. A crisp autumn day is on tap for this game, it
appears.
Lewis is going to get his carries week in and week out, as the Ravens don't
have much in the way of a passing game. The Jets will give him some yardage,
but scoring is another matter - this looks like a neutral matchup to us. If
Ogden can go, that would help Lewis have a better game.
New Orleans' Deuce McAllister vs. The Kansas
City Defense (Neutral Matchup)
Deuce McAllister made the most of his limited rushes last week, posting 16/63/1
rushing and 4/18/0 receiving in the drubbing that was the San Diego game. He
hasn't racked up much yardage lately (the Saints' offense is sputtering), but
he has scored 3 TDs (40/105/3 rushing and 7/35/0 receiving) in the last 2 games,
salvaging his fantasy value (8th best fantasy RB in fantasy points per game
during the last 3 weeks). He's making the best of a bad situation.
Tampa pounded in 3 TDs via Michael Pittman's legs last week vs. K.C. (20/130/3
rushing as a team). That was atypical for the Chiefs, who have allowed 8 TDs
in 8 games (114.3 rushing yards per game, ranking 15th in the NFL this season).
Over the past 4 weeks, they've averaged 96 rushing yards allowed per game, and
1.0 TDs per contest - this is an average but not terrible run D most weeks.
Pittman's effort looks more like an aberration than a trend at this point.
KC took a major blow when LB Shawn Barber injured his knee (he may be done
for the season, and is out this week). MLB Monty Beisel has been missing games
due to a bad calf (questionable). DT Junior Siavii (ankle, questionable) missed
the action last week as well. DE Vonnie Holliday has an abdomen injury (questionable),
while DT John Browning is probable (shoulder). New Orleans comes into this game
in good shape, health-wise.
This game is to be played in the Superdome - weather won't be an issue.
The Saints have been struggling in recent weeks, while the Chiefs are a middle-of-the-road
defense - at home, we see this as a neutral matchup for the Saints.
Minnesota's Onterrio Smith/Michael Bennett/Moe
Williams vs. The Green Bay Defense (Neutral Matchup)
It looks like Onterrio Smith is the starter here in all but name (13/80/1 rushing
and 2/15/0 receiving), although Michael Bennett did get some chances to make
things happen last week (5/18/0 rushing and 2/15/0 receiving), as did Moe Williams
(2/15/0 receiving and 1/13/0 rushing). The Vikings have an awesome OL (first
in the NFL averaging 5.1 yards per carry), so Smith should really rack up some
fantasy points in this situation. Sorry, Bennett owners.
Green Bay's rush defense is improving quickly - they have allowed an average
of 116.1 rushing yards per game (18th in the NFL) and 7 scores to date. Over
the past 4 weeks, they've been really tough, though, surrendering only 60 yards
per contest on average, and .3 TDs per game. That's impressive. Clinton Portis
and company could only muster 81 yards against the Packers in week 8. They've
turned up the heat in this phase of the game, folks.
Mewelde Moore is listed as questionable due to his sore ankle. Green Bay comes
in off a bye, and they are in good shape now, with only LB Paris Lenon (knee,
questionable) to report.
The forecast for Lambeau field calls for a high of 48F with a low of 33F, and
a 10% chance of precipitation. Looks like a fine day for football is on tap
in Wisconsin.
Two top-performing units clash in this game - neither has a clear upper hand.
Pittsburgh's Jerome Bettis/Duce Staley/Verron
Haynes vs. The Cleveland Defense (Neutral Matchup)
The news out of Pittsburgh is that the running back corps is very banged up:
3rd down back Verron Haynes has a very tender turf-toe injury (doubtful), while
Staley's hamstring makes his status iffy for the Cleveland game, too (questionable).
Bettis has a sore calf, but is probable to play anyway - he may well start.
Keep your eye on Staley's status as the week goes along - right now it looks
like Bettis will probably be the guy. He filled the full-time RB role just fine
last week, with 33/149/0 against the Eagles, so the Steelers won't hesitate
to rest Staley if necessary. Rookie Willie Parker is the likely fill-in for
Haynes if he is sidelined. Staley and Bettis combined for 151 rushing yards
and 2 TDs in the last meeting between these teams in week 5.
Cleveland gave up 28/106/1 to the Ravens last week. They have averaged 95 rushing
yards and .3 TDs allowed per game over the past 4 weeks - they are playing the
sort of rush D than their season average of 107.3 rushing yards (and season
total of 9 TDs) would indicate. In other words, this is a top-ten rush defense.
Ebenezer Ekuban was a top IDP DL last week with 3 solo tackles, 1 assist, 1
sack and 1 fumble recovery.
Cleveland is in decent shape coming into the game, while the Steelers also
report RB Dan Krieder (hip flexor) as questionable, while C Jeff Hartings is
probable (knee).
The forecast for Browns' Stadium calls for a high of 52F and a low of 39F with
a 10% chance for rain - that's good football weather in our book.
Two strong squads clash in this matchup, which equals a neutral matchup to
us.
St. Louis' Marshall Faulk/Steven Jackson
vs. The Seattle Defense (Neutral Matchup)
Marshall Faulk (15/51/0 rushing and 1/4/0 receiving) and Steven Jackson (5/64/0
rushing, 2/11/0 receiving) combined for an effective attack vs. The Seahawks
last time around the block (week 5). Over the past 3 weeks, Faulk has rushed
for 24/127/0 and caught 14/96/0 in 2 games, while Jackson has managed 9/28/0
and 2/18/0 in that same span. Last week, neither guy did a whole lot , but Faulk
saw the lion's share of work (12/66/0 rushing and 6/22/0 receiving), while Jackson
was a non-factor (3/1/0 rushing).
Seattle limited the 49ers to 21/74/1 rushing last week - they did a good job
defending the 49ers attack. Seattle has been tough in this phase all year long,
averaging 96.4 rushing yards allowed per game (5 TDs given up to date). Over
the past 4 weeks, the team has surrendered 108 yards and 1.0 TDs per contest
- they are slightly off pace, but still pretty tough, as you can see. LB Anthony
Simmons was a top IDP LB last week with 5 solo tackles, 1 assist, 1 interception
and 1 pass defensed.
T Scott Tercero (shoulder, probable) is listed by St. Louis. DE Grant Wistrom
is doubtful (knee), DE Chike Okeafor is questionable (neck), and LB Chad Brown
is probable (knee) for Seattle.
This game will be played in the Edward Jones Dome, so weather isn't going to
be a factor
Seattle contained the Rams last time around, and they should be a big challenge
for the Rams' backs again this week. This looks like a fairly even matchup to
us.
Tampa Bay's Michael Pittman vs. The Atlanta
Defense (Neutral Matchup)
Michael Pittman has become a fantasy star since 1). Brian Griese emerged to
make the passing game respectable and 2). Mike Alstott was knocked out of the
lineup by knee injury. Pittman had a great game last week, racking up 15/128/3
rushing and 2/30/0 receiving vs. The Chiefs. He has 38/237/4 rushing and 4/85/0
receiving in the last 2 games (ranking 2nd among all fantasy RBs with 28.1 fantasy
points per game, on average). Start him if you have him on your roster.
Atlanta allowed a mere 68 yards rushing to the normally-powerful Denver attack
in their week 8 game (0 TDs). It was a vast improvement over their performance
in preceding weeks - the team has allowed an average of 145 rushing yards and
3 TDs per game over the last 4 weeks. For the season, the Falcons average 98.3
rushing yards allowed per game, but they are tied for next-to-last in TDs allowed,
at 12. This squad has been up and down a lot recently.
Atlanta comes into the game off a bye week - they are reasonably healthy, listing
. Tampa lists Alstott (neck, out), and they lost their starting C John Wade
for the season this week due to a severe knee injury (dislocated knee cap).
Second year pro Sean Mahan will take over the center position this week. Injuries
are taking a toll on the Bucs' unit in the past few weeks. DT Rod Coleman is
probable (knee) for Atlanta.
This game is to be played in the Georgia Dome, so weather won't be a factor.
Pittman is on fire, but his line took a hit this week. The Falcons have been
vulnerable in this phase lately, but played well heading into the bye week.
This looks like a neutral matchup to us.
Dallas' RBBC vs. The Philadelphia Defense
(Neutral Matchup)
Two embarrassed clubs face off in this matchup - the Eagles were handed their
heads on a platter by the Steelers last week (27-3), while Dallas lost badly
- to the lowly Bengals (26-3). You could say that both teams are coming into
this divisional game on a bad note.
Dallas' RBBC is a big part of the problem - the backs are in neutral more often
than not, and opposing teams just haven't needed to respect the run. Last week,
against the Bengal's league-worst rush defense, the Cowboys could only scrape
together 27/109/0 rushing. ReShard Lee lead the team with 6/39/0. There were
very few fantasy points to be found in that game, folks.
Philadelphia's rotten defensive front was shredded by the Steelers last week,
to the tune of 56/252/1. The Steelers controlled the ball for 41:49 seconds
during the game. It was an all-around smack-down. Over the last four weeks,
the Eagles have averaged 172 rushing yards and 1 TD allowed per game (way worse
than their poor 130.6 season average, which is 27th in the NFL this year). There
is no upside to be found in this phase of the game if you are an Eagles' fan
or fantasy owner of their DT. However, DL Sam Rayburn was a top IDP player last
week with 3 solo tackles, 1 assist, and 2 sacks.
Dallas continues to list RB Julius Jones as out (shoulder blade), while the
Eagles report that DT Sam Rayburn (elbow/concussion) is questionable; LB Dhani
Jones (ankle) and DT Corey Simon (calf) are probable to play.
This game is to be played in Texas Stadium on Monday night - the forecast calls
for a high of 58F and a low of 51F with a 40% chance of rain. If the rain comes
down hard at game time, the field could be slick and the ball may be harder
to handle.
You wouldn't think that a 7-1 team could field a rush defense this poor, but
the Eagles are doing it. In this battle of the bad, neither squad has a clear
advantage.
New York Jets' Curtis Martin vs. The Baltimore
Defense (Tough Matchup)
Curtis Martin is finally cooling off after his nuclear-hot start to 2005 -
he put up 19/67/0 rushing last week, with no receptions. With Chad Pennington
down to a rotator cuff injury, Martin will be featured this week - it would
be no surprise to see the Ravens stack the line and dare Quincy Carter to throw
at their excellent DBs, though. Over the last 3 weeks, Martin has piled up 58/252/1
rushing and 3/13/0 receiving to rank 28th among all fantasy RBs. Last week was
a far cry from the teams' usual ypc average, though (25/88 yields 3.5 yards
per carry, 1.2 less than the 4.7 clip they've put up for the season).
Baltimore's rush defense is in the top ten this year (averaging 98.9 yards
allowed per game, 7th in the league), and they are tied for least rushing TDs
allowed to date with a mere 3 given up in 8 games. Over the last four weeks,
they average 91 yards allowed per game, and 0 TDs - no wonder Cleveland only
managed 28/91/0 as a team last week! This is an elite NFL defense, folks.
The Jets are in good shape in this phase of the game, while the Ravens list
LB Bart Scott (hamstring, probable).
The forecast for New Jersey calls for a high of 47F and a low of 35F with a
10% chance of precipitation. A crisp autumn day is on tap for this game, it
appears.
The Ravens represent a stern test for Martin and company this week.
Philadelphia's Brian Westbrook vs. The Dallas
Defense (Tough Matchup)
Two embarrassed clubs face off in this matchup - the Eagles were handed their
heads on a platter by the Steelers last week (27-3), while Dallas lost badly
- to the lowly Bengals (26-3). You could say that both teams are coming into
this divisional game on a sour note.
Brian Westbrook was a non-factor in this phase of the game last week, with
6/17/0 rushing and 3/4/0 receiving on the day. After the fiasco, he claimed
that his ribs were pain-free - but we're just not convinced. 6/17/0 is just
not the sort of game we've come to expect from a healthy Westbrook. Keep an
eye on his injury status as the week progresses towards game-day. He's listed
as probable on Wednesday. The other backs on the team combined for 3/6/0 rushing
- it was a miserable day all the way around.
Dallas contained but did not shut down the Bengals last week (31/116/1), which
is consistent with their season average of 123.9 rushing yards allowed per game
(24th in the NFL) while giving up only 5 rushing scores to date. Over the last
4 weeks, the team averages 125 yards and 1.0 rushing scores surrendered to the
opposition - the Cowboys field an adequate but not outstanding defense in this
phase of the game.
Philadelphia's G Jermane Mayberry was sidelined due to a calf injury last week
(questionable) and RT Jon Runyan is hobbled by a groin injury (probable), although
he continues to gamely soldier on each week. Dallas' defense is essentially
healthy at this point in the season, with no serious problems to report.
This game is to be played in Texas Stadium on Monday night - the forecast calls
for a high of 58F and a low of 51F with a 40% chance of rain. If the rain comes
down hard at game time, the field could be slick and the ball may be harder
to handle.
The Eagles have struggled in this phase since Westbrook was injured - now,
we'll see if he can make it all the way back against this division rival. The
Cowboys have been less bad in recent weeks, and have a huge home-field assist
from the 12th man - we give the home team the nod in this matchup. Advantage,
Cowboys.
Cincinnati's Rudi Johnson vs. The Washington
Defense (Bad Matchup)
Rudi Johnson notched 26/95/0 rushing and 4/19/0 receiving, powering through
the 100 yards combined barrier and helping his team win a much-needed victory
(he also helped his fantasy owners in leagues where yardage counts for points).
67/271/2 rushing and 6/23/0 receiving puts him at 17th fantasy RB in the land
over the last 3 weeks - as the Bengals' offense and Carson Palmer continue to
mature in the second half of the season, Johnson's prospects should continue
to trend upward.
Washington's rush D is playing at an elite level this season, averaging 84
yards allowed per game (3rd in the NFL) and tied for second-least rushing scores
allowed with 4. Over the past 4 weeks, they average 93 rushing yards allowed
and .7 TDs per contest - Detroit only mustered 24/64/0 against this defensive
front last week - there isn't much room to maneuver when you play the Redskins.
Cornelius Griffin was a top IDP DL last week, with 3 solo tackles, 3 assists,
2 sacks and 2 passes defensed.
Cincinnati's RT Willie Anderson is playing on a damaged knee (questionable).
RB Chris Perry's abdomen is still bothering him (questionable ), while RB Jeremi
Johnson has a sore hammy (probable). G Scott Kooistra has a sore back (probable).
Washington's LBs LaVar Arrington (knee, out) and Michael Barrow (knee, questionable)
have both missed several games due to their injuries, and last week DE Phillip
Daniels, just returned to the lineup from a groin injury, aggravated the injury
during the game and could be done for the season (out). DE Renaldo Wynn has
a sore ankle (probable).
Washington has found a way to play solid D without all three in the first half
of the season, though.
The Forecast for FedEx Field calls for a high of 49F and a low of 33F with
a 10% chance for rain. That's the kind of day to enjoy tailgating and a game
of football!
This is a bad matchup for the Bengals' evolving offense and for Rudi Johnson.
Detroit's RBBC vs. The Jacksonville Defense
(Bad Matchup)
Detroit has beaten out Miami for the coveted "worst yards-per-carry average
in the NFL" crown, as they slog along at a season-average clip of 3.2 yards
per tote. That's not good at all, folks. They have no clear-cut, every down
back, although Kevin Jones has been seeing a majority of touches recently (but
not production - 12/20/0 last week) - the team eked out 24/74/0 against the
superior Redskins' defense last week. Our advice is to look elsewhere for your
fantasy starters until somebody starts producing fantasy-worthy numbers in this
phase of the game (Shawn Bryson cobbled together 49 yards last week (21 rushing
and 28 receiving) to lead the stable).
Jacksonville's rush D had faded out of the top ten, and now sits at #12 allowing
an average of 108.8 rushing yards per game this season, but they have only given
up 4 rushing scores so far (tied for second-least in the NFL). Over the past
4 weeks, the D has resurfaced and averages only 86 rushing yards allowed per
game (with 0 TDs allowed in that span. Houston managed 93 yards and 0 TDs vs.
The Jags in week 8.
Jacksonville comes off a bye week, and should be rested and ready to play,
with only LB Daryl Smith (knee, questionable) listed. The Lions list RB Stephen
Trejo as doubtful (knee).
The forecast for Alltel Stadium calls for a high of 73F with a low of 60F and
a 10% chance of rain. Except for all those hurricanes, Floridians enjoy lovely
weather, don't they?
Detroit has hit rock-bottom in this phase, while the Jaguars are on their way
back to the top level of rush defense - this is a bad matchup for Detroit.
Cleveland's Lee Suggs/William Green vs.
The Pittsburgh Defense (Bad Matchup)
Lee Suggs led the Browns last week, with 18/56/0 rushing and 1/7/0 receiving
against the hard-nosed Ravens' D. William Green had less luck (8/10/0 rushing
and 1/10/0 receiving) - it was a lackluster day in general for the Browns, who
failed to score a TD on offense last week. Over the last 3 weeks, Suggs has
33/134/1 rushing and 3/12/0 receiving to his credit (31st fantasy RB in the
land), while Green has 22/74/1 rushing and 2/13/0 receiving (37th fantasy RB
during that span). Suggs had 11/30/0 rushing vs. Pittsburgh back in week 5,
while Green managed 3/27/0 (3/20/0 and 1/3/0 receiving, respectively). It was
not their best game of the year, needless to say.
Pittsburgh's rush defense has been dominant in the past 4 weeks allowing an
average of 43 yards rushing and .3 TDs to their opponents. Yes, 43 - Brian Westbrook
and company could only muster 9/23/0 all game last week. This sustained dominance
at the NFL level of play is mind bogglingly good, folks. James Farrior was a
top IDP LB last week, with 4 solo tackles, 1 assist, 1 sack, 1 interception,
and 1 pass defensed.
Cleveland comes into the game having lost RG Kelvin Garmon for the season due
to a severe knee injury sustained in last week's game. Pittsburgh reports DE
Travis Kirschke (back) as probable.
The forecast for Browns' Stadium calls for a high of 52F and a low of 39F with
a 10% chance for rain - that's good football weather in our book.
This game looks like a bad matchup for Suggs, Green and company.
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