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Rushing Matchups - Week 10

Hi Folks,

Here's our look at the Rushing Matchups for this week.

PLEASE NOTE: This does NOT replace the Cheatsheet ranking. The Cheatsheet rankings are the final say on where we see a player for that week. The Matchup Breakdowns are simply one more tool in the box when it comes to helping choose your lineup.

Also note, just because a player has a "bad" matchup, it does NOT mean he's not a starter in your league. If Priest Holmes is playing the toughest rush defense in the league, that just means he's got a tough matchup that week. He's also your starter. In the same way, if the worst RB on your roster has a "great" matchup, that doesn't necessarily mean you start him, it just means he'll likely fare better this week than he normally would.

Bottom line, the cheatsheets are the final word.

Let's jump to it.

Joe


Bye Weeks

Miami's Sammy Morris
San Diego's LaDainian Tomlinson
Denver's Reuben Droughns
Oakland's Tyrone Wheatley and company


Quick Index

Great Matchups:

San Francisco's Kevan Barlow vs. The Carolina Defense
Washington's Clinton Portis vs. The Cincinnati Defense
Kansas City's Priest Holmes/Derrick Blaylock vs. The New Orleans Defense
Green Bay's Ahman Green vs. The Minnesota Defense

Good Matchups:

Buffalo's Willis McGahee vs. The New England Defense
Carolina's "Rushing Attack" vs. The San Francisco Defense
Chicago's Thomas Jones/Anthony Thomas vs. The Tennessee Defense
Tennessee's Chris Brown vs. The Chicago Defense
Jacksonville's Fred Taylor vs. The Detroit Defense
Indianapolis' Edgerrin James vs. The Houston Defense
Houston's Domanick Davis vs. The Indianapolis Defense
New York Giants' Tiki Barber vs. The Arizona Defense
Arizona's Emmitt Smith vs. The New York Giants' Defense
Seattle's Shaun Alexander vs. The St. Louis Defense
Atlanta's Warrick Dunn/T.J. Duckett vs. the Tampa Bay Defense

Neutral Matchups:

Baltimore's Jamal Lewis vs. The New York Jets' Defense
New England's Corey Dillon vs. The Buffalo Defense
New Orleans' Deuce McAllister vs. The Kansas City Defense
Minnesota's Onterrio Smith/Michael Bennett/Moe Williams vs. The Green Bay Defense
Pittsburgh's Jerome Bettis/Duce Staley/Verron Haynes vs. The Cleveland Defense
St. Louis' Marshall Faulk/Steven Jackson vs. The Seattle Defense
Tampa Bay's Michael Pittman vs. The Atlanta Defense
Dallas' RBBC vs. The Philadelphia Defense

Tough Matchups:

New York Jets' Curtis Martin vs. The Baltimore Defense
Philadelphia's Brian Westbrook vs. The Dallas Defense

Bad Matchups:

Cincinnati's Rudi Johnson vs. The Washington Defense
Detroit's RBBC vs. The Jacksonville Defense
Cleveland's Lee Suggs/William Green vs. The Pittsburgh Defense


Kansas City's Priest Holmes/Derrick Blaylock vs. The New Orleans Defense (Great Matchup)

As of midweek, Priest Holmes doesn't look good to play this week, but stay tuned. He is walking around on crutches, and has commented "This is not the kind of injury where I can grit my teeth and play through it. This is the kind of injury that needs some rest. And if after I rest, the knee still doesn't feel right, then it's something where we would have to explore surgery." The team is preparing to play without Holmes - it looks like Derrick Blaylock will be the man this week at least. He has rushed 32/150/4 this season, with 93 yards receiving to date - we think he'll be a more-than-capable option behind K.C.'s excellent OL (tied for 5th in the NFL averaging 4.6 yards per carry).

Blaylock will get an easy tune-up if Holmes is going to miss some time, because the Saints are a joke in this phase of the game. They allow an average of 142.6 rushing yards per game this season, and have given up 10 rushing scores to date. They are right on that pace over the past 4 weeks, allowing an average of 141 rushing yards and .3 TDs per game during that span, including 35/152/1 allowed to the Chargers last week. They are very soft.

Aside from Holmes' balky knee (doubtful), the Chiefs list G Will Shields (hip) and T John Welbourn (knee) - both are probable to play. New Orleans had to do without LB Courtney Watson last week, but he's not on the Wednesday injury report.

This game is to be played in the Superdome - weather won't be an issue.

The Chiefs will trample the Saints this week.


Washington's Clinton Portis vs. The Cincinnati Defense (Great Matchup)

Clinton Portis is an all-world talent - unfortunately, his team's passing attack is decidedly subpar. That makes it tough for Portis to do much in the redzone, as the opposing defenders don't have to respect the pass much, and can therefore key on the running game. Nobody could have predicted he'd drop off so dramatically (2 rushing TDs and 1 receiving TD in 8 games), but the reality of this situation is that 6 pointers are in short supply among Washington's offensive players in general. Portis is on a pace of 51/217/0 rushing and 8/28/0 receiving over the last 3 weeks (with a passing score), ranking 15th among all fantasy RBs during that time-span. He's in for a fun game this week, though.

Cincinnati is awful in this phase of the game. They have allowed an average of 149.6 rushing yards per game (worst in the NFL) while surrendering 6 scores to date. Over the past 4 weeks, the Bengals average 134 rushing yards allowed per contest, and .3 TDs (but that average includes a subpar. Cowboy's performance of 27/109/0 last week). They are the NFL's welcome mat this year, folks.

DE Carl Powell (knee, questionable) and DT Terrance Martin (finger, probable) were both unable to play last week for the Bengals. LB Caleb Miller has a sore ankle (questionable), DE Duane Clemons has a sore neck (probable), and DE Justin Smith a sore shoulder (probable).Washington is in decent health at the halfway point of the season, though RB Rock Cartwright has a sore thumb (probable).

The Forecast for FedEx Field calls for a high of 49F and a low of 33F with a 10% chance for rain. That's the kind of day to enjoy tailgating and a game of football!

Portis should enjoy a productive game on Sunday.


San Francisco's Kevan Barlow vs. The Carolina Defense (Great Matchup)

Kevan Barlow put up a TD last week, to go along with 18/61 rushing and 2/18/0 receiving. He's struggled this year, especially during "Ken Dorsey" weeks, and meanwhile the OL has not been helping him very much (the team averages 3.6 rushing yards per carry, 28th in the league in that department). Through all the adversity, Barlow has managed 135/484/4 rushing and 20/152/0 receiving in the first half of the season (25th ranked fantasy RB to date). If Rattay can stay under center during the second half of the year, Barlow should easily top 1000 yards rushing and 300 yards receiving, with 8-10 scores. That's nothing to sniff at, folks. This week should be an especially good week to be a Barlow owner. Why? The woeful Panthers are coming to town.

Carolina limited the Raiders in the yardage department last week (28/69/0), but they got stomped at the goalline, coughing up 3 scores. The team is 29th in the NFL this year allowing an average of 142.1 rushing yards per game, with a total of 13 scores surrendered to date - that's tops in the NFL. Over the past 4 weeks, they average 125 rushing yards and 2.0 TDs allowed - when we wrote woeful, we meant woeful. LB Will Witherspoon was an IDP star last week, though, with 7 solo tackles, 2 assists, 1 interception and 3 passes defensed. DL Julius Peppers had 4 solo tackles and 2 sacks to land in the top ten among IDP DL.

Carolina missed their MLB Dan Morgan last week (concussion, questionable), and DT Kindal Moorehead missed the game too due to his injured shoulder (questionable). San Francisco has been playing without C Jeremy Newberry (knee, questionable) and Gs Eric Heitmann (ankle, not listed) and Rob Murphy (stinger, not listed) were both injured last week. FB Fred Beasley has a sore ankle (probable). Injuries are a factor for both of these teams.

The forecast for Monster Park calls for a high of 60F and a low of 51F with a 30% chance of rain. Unless the rain comes down really hard during the game, it should be a good day to play a game of football.

Barlow has a lot of talent, and he'll show us what he can do this week against the ultra-soft Panthers.


Green Bay's Ahman Green vs. The Minnesota Defense (Great Matchup)

Ahman Green so far in 2004: 159/719/6 rushing, with 23/171/1 receiving - he's the 6th best fantasy RB to date. Green Bay averages 4.3 yards per carry this season. He racked up 24/70/2 rushing and 4/73/0 receiving against the 3rd-ranked Washington D in the game before the bye week - it's all good in this phase of the game for the Packers.

Minnesota does not resemble the Washington defense in this phase of the game. They have given up the second-most TDs in the league to opposing rushers (12 to date). They average 132 rushing yards and 1.8 rushing scores allowed over the past 4 weeks. Indianapolis exploited them for 31/144/0 rushing last week. The Vikings' defensive front is soft. Kevin Williams was a top IDP DL last week, with 6 solo tackles, 1 assist and a sack.

Green Bay comes into this one off a bye week, and are ready to rock, with only G Marco Rivera dinged up (ankle, probable). The Vikings list LBs Chris Claiborne (calf) and Raonall Smith (concussion) - both are questionable.

The forecast for Lambeau field calls for a high of 48F with a low of 33F, and a 10% chance of precipitation. Looks like a fine day for football is on tap in Wisconsin.

Green and the Packers should steamroll over the Vikings' defense at Lambeau this weekend.


New York Giants' Tiki Barber vs. The Arizona Defense (Good Matchup)

Tiki Barber has slowed down a bit in recent weeks (but he's still a top 5 fantasy RB, just not #1) - he had 21/72/2 rushing (a low yardage total for him) and 4/59/0 receiving last week to rank 3rd among all fantasy RBs. Over the past 3 weeks, he's notched 67/243/4 rushing and 12/171/1 receiving, placing him at 4th among all fantasy RBs for that span. Yeah, that's slowing down for Barber this season. Start him if you've got him.

Arizona's rush D is a paradox, as they rank 26th in the NFL allowing 126.6 rushing yards per game, but are tied for 1st giving up only 3 TDs this season. They are tough in the redzone In the past 4 weeks, the numbers make a little more sense, as they average 122 rushing yards allowed per game, and 1.0 TDs per contest. Miami ripped them up for 31/168/1 last week - the rush D is playing down to their season yardage average at this point in the season.

The Giants have some issues along the OL this week, with C Shaun O'Hara still battling a leg infection (questionable) and T Luke Petitgout coming off a concussion (questionable). RB Michael Cloud has a sore back (questionable). Arizona's LB Raynoch Thompson is nursing a sore knee (probable).

The forecast for Sun Devil Stadium calls for a high of 69F and a low of 49F with a 30% chance for rain. Unless the rain pours down at game-time, it will be a great day to play football.

Barber and company should have plenty of opportunities to make good things happen against the fading Cardinal's rush defense.


Arizona's Emmitt Smith vs. The New York Giants' Defense (Good Matchup)

Arizona's Emmitt Smith just keeps finding his way into the endzone (19/42/1 rushing last week, with 1/3/0 receiving). His totals this season: 151/565/6 rushing and 9/67/0 receiving through 8 games - those put him at #16 among all fantasy RBs in fantasy points per game for the first half of the season (13.04 per game). Troy Hambrick is quietly making contributions each week, with 4/70/0 rushing and 2/5/0 receiving last week. The Cardinals' running game isn't overpowering, but they can make some plays

Chicago battered the Giants for 34/122/2 last week, and both starting DEs were lost for the season as a result of injuries sustained in the game. It was not a good week for the Giants' defensive front. They are the 20th ranked unit in the NFL allowing an average of 118.8 rushing yards per game, with 5 scores given away to date. Over the past 4 weeks, they've been on pace surrendering 110 rushing yards per game, but 1.7 scores per contest. Osi Umenyiora was a top IDP DL last week, with 3 solo tackles, a sack, a fumble recovery and a pass defensed, and Fred Robbins also cracked the top ten with 5 solo tackles, an assist, and 2 sacks. Nick Greisen made the top ten IDP LBs with 3 solo tackles, 5 assists, a fumble recovery and 2 passes defensed.

DEs Michael Strahan (torn pectoral muscle) and Keith Washington (torn ACL in his knee) are both out for the season. Osi Umenyiora and Lance Legree figure to move into the starting lineup with those two out. LB Barrett Green (knee/ankle) is questionable to play this week. Arizona is in good health, listing Josh Scobey (knee) as probable.

The forecast for Sun Devil Stadium calls for a high of 69F and a low of 49F with a 30% chance for rain. Unless the rain pours down at game-time, it will be a great day to play football.

The Giants are staggering in this phase, and now their line is in flux thanks to twin injuries - advantage, Cardinals.


Chicago's Thomas Jones/Anthony Thomas vs. The Tennessee Defense (Good Matchup)

Here's what Bear's offensive coordinator Terry Shea has to say on the Thomas Jones/Anthony Thomas situation in Chicago: "Anthony certainly will be figured into our game plan as much as ever and probably even more so with his performance these last couple games. I've said it all along - thank goodness we have two quality running backs…(Coach) Lovie (Smith) has a policy that a starter, if given equal opportunity and he is still recognized as being as good as the backup player who filled in for him, he deserves to have that opportunity to regain a starting position. But we'll work them both. Believe me, we will." (Daily Southtown article by Gene Chamberlin, 10/11/04) Take from that what you will, but to us it sounds like that when Thomas Jones gets back from his sprained toe, the workload at RB will be shared between Thomas and Jones to some extent. Thomas has been excellent since stepping in for Jones, with 58/335/2 rushing and 7/55/0 receiving over the last 3 weeks (19th best fantasy RB in that span). Jones is listed as "questionable" this week due to his injured toe.

Rudi Johnson was limited to 17/57/1 by the Titans two weeks ago - they went into the bye week with a win and on a high note in this phase of the game. The Titans are in the top 10 among NFL rush defenses this season, allowing 108.4 rushing yards per game, with 8 scores surrendered to date. Over the past 4 weeks they've given up 102 rushing yards and 1.0 TDs per game, on average. They are respectable but not awesome in this department.

Aside from Jones, the Bears list C Olin Kreutz (elbow), G Rex Tucker (elbow) and G Ruben Brown (knee) - all are probable to play. LB Rocky Calmus (back) and DE Carlos Hall (knee) are listed as questionable by Tennessee.

The forecast for The Coliseum calls for a high of 54F and a low of 41F with a 10% chance of precipitation. It should be a fine day to play football.

Chicago's rushing attack has been powerful no matter who is taking the ball, while the Titans contain but do not shut down their opponents. This looks like a good matchup for the Bears.


Tennessee's Chris Brown vs. The Chicago Defense (Good Matchup)

Chris Brown went into the bye week with a bang, abusing the Bengals for 32/147/1 rushing with 4/23/0 receiving. He has been stellar this year, ranking as the 11th best fantasy RB with 166/810/5 rushing and 17/128/0 receiving over 8 games - the team averages 4.7 yards per carry with Brown in the mix, tied for 3rd best in the NFL. The guy is almost a lock for 100+ yards per game rushing, and should be in your starting lineup.

Chicago's rush D is of the bend-but-don't-break variety, allowing an average of 123.6 yards per game to date, but holding the opposition to a mere 4 TDs in 8 games. 2 of those TDs were given up last week to Tiki Barber (21/72/2), though. Over the past 4 weeks, the Bears average 127 rushing yards and .8 TDs per game - they can be "gotten to", but it's not easy. Alex Brown was an IDP monster at DL last week with 6 solo tackles, 2 assists, 4 sacks, a forced fumble and a pass defensed. Talk about a one-man wrecking crew.

DE Adewale Ogunleye has a sore knee (probable), DT Tommie Harris is ill (probable) and DT Alfonso Boone has a sore back (probable). LB Brian Urlacher is probable (hamstring). Tennessee comes into this game off a bye week and lists Brown with his ever-present toe injury (questionable) and T Fred Miller (ankle, questionable).

The forecast for The Coliseum calls for a high of 54F and a low of 41F with a 10% chance of precipitation. It should be a fine day to play football.

Brown should cruise against the giving Chicago defensive front - just don't look for multiple TDs and you won't be disappointed.


Carolina's "Rushing Attack" vs. The San Francisco Defense (Good Matchup)

The wheels have fallen off the Carolina rushing attack, folks. Stephen Davis's knee appears to be chronically inflamed - he keeps suffering swelling in the joint - and the remaining backups just can't seem to get the job done. With the constant uncertainty surrounding Davis' status, and the lack of anyone else capable to do the job consistently, we suggest you look elsewhere for your fantasy backs, unless and until Davis can prove to us he has finally healed up his balky knee.

San Francisco's defense has a turnstile as it's model, as the 49ers are giving up gobs of points (12 rushing scores to date) and allow 123.9 rushing yards per game on average. Over the past 4 weeks, the average shoots up to 157 yards allowed per game, with 1.7 TDs surrendered on average. Ouch! They allowed 37/184/2 to the voracious Seahawks last week - it's all bad in this phase of the game for the 49ers. However, the busy LBs racked up a lot of fantasy points - Jamie Winborn (6 solo tackles, 1 assist, 1 sack and 2 passes defensed) and Derek Smith (8 solo tackles, 3 assists, .5 sacks, and 1 pass defensed) were both top 10 material.

DE Andrew Williams is missing action lately (shin, questionable), while DT Bryant Young suffered a stinger last week (probable). LBs Richard Seigler (foot, doubtful) and Ray Wells (ankle, out) both missed last week's game. Julian Peterson is on IR. Injuries have decimated the 49er defensive front. Carolina's woes extend to RB Brad Hoover (back, questionable) and, of course, Davis (questionable).

The forecast for Monster Park calls for a high of 60F and a low of 51F with a 30% chance of rain. Unless the rain comes down really hard during the game, it should be a good day to play a game of football.

This is a good matchup for the Panthers, but will they have the personnel available to take advantage of the favorable matchup? We doubt it.


Buffalo's Willis McGahee vs. The New England Defense (Good Matchup)

Willis McGahee has staked his claim to lead this team's rushing attack, and he made that claim with authority last week, slapping down 37/132/1 rushing and 2/11/0 receiving. The fact is, the Bills offense runs a lot better when McGahee is in the backfield, so look for him to see the ball a lot in coming weeks. 83/292/3 rushing and 4/21/0 receiving over the past 3 weeks slots McGahee as the 7th best fantasy RB during that span. The Bills are still not opening very big holes for their backs, though - the team is tied for 29th in the NFL averaging 3.5 yards per carry. The last time these teams met, back in week 4, Travis Henry was in the saddle, so we can't rely on history in this matchup.

New England bounced back from their first loss in over a year last week, containing Marshall Faulk and company (19/81/0). They are not usually that stout, giving up an average of 119 rushing yards per game in 2004 (21st in the NFL), with 5 rushing scores allowed to date. Over the last 4 weeks, that average creeps up to 128 rushing yards allowed per game, with .5 scores given up each week. However, the team is headed in the right direction, keeping the Rams under 100 yards rushing.

New England's defensive front is fairly healthy (you can't say that about their secondary), listing LB Matt Chathams as questionable (hamstring) and LB Larry Izzo (knee) as probable. Buffalo's RT Mike Williams suffered a scary-looking neck injury last week, but didn't do permanent damage (questionable).

The forecast for Gillette Stadium calls for a high of 40F and a low of 29F with a 40% chance for precipitation. If the snow comes down thickly - possibly mixed with sleet (or as sleet) - footing/ball handling could become a factor. Keep an eye on the forecast as the game approaches.

McGahee is off to a roaring start, while the Patriots are just average in this phase of the game most weeks. Advantage, Buffalo.


Jacksonville's Fred Taylor vs. The Detroit Defense (Good Matchup)

Taylor went into the bye week pretty banged up, but he's had time to get himself back to 100% -- at least, his fantasy owners hope that's the case. He has been uninspiring in his appearances lately, landing at 31st among all fantasy RBs with 23/116/0 rushing and 6/77/0 receiving in his final 2 games before the bye week. Keep an eye on his injury status as the lineup submission deadline gets closer if you are a Taylor owner. With a new QB under center, the Jags would love to establish the running game early and with authority, so Taylor has good prospects for a lot of touches this week

Detroit fields a mediocre rush defense that averages 113.5 rushing yards allowed per game (14th in the NFL) and they have surrendered 6 scores to date. Over the past 4 weeks, the Lions coughed up an average of 129 yards and .5 scores per contest - not horrible, but not outstanding, either. They are very much a what-you-see-is-what-you-get bunch.

LBs Boss Bailey (knee, out) and Donte Curry (knee, doubtful) continue to miss time for the Lions. DE Jared DeVries is questionable (groin). Jacksonville comes into this game off a bye, and doesn't report any injuries in this phase of the game.

The forecast for Alltel Stadium calls for a high of 73F with a low of 60F and a 10% chance of rain. Except for all those hurricanes, Floridians enjoy lovely weather, don't they?

Taylor is an elite back when healthy, while the Lions are just average. Advantage, Jaguars.


Houston's Domanick Davis vs. The Indianapolis Defense (Good Matchup)

Domanick Davis has been very productive since returning to the lineup after his latest injury - 41/127/2 rushing and 7/58/0 in 2 games, which puts him at #12 among all fantasy RBs in fantasy points per game over the last 3 weeks. All this, despite an OL that is 31st in the NFL averaging 3.3 yards per carry this season - Davis is doing well, all things considered. The first of a 2-game set between the division rivals is going down on Sunday in this matchup - the Texans will be at their best, hopefully.

Indianapolis' rush D is nothing special, ranking 16th in the NFL allowing an average of 116 yards and a total of 7 TDs to date. Over the past 4 weeks, they are on a pace of 156 rushing yards allowed per game, with 1.3 TDs surrendered - as you can see, they are headed in the wrong direction. 24/138/1 was the total that the Vikings laid on Indianapolis on Monday night.

Indy will go without LB Kenyon Whiteside (knee, out), while Houston is down RB Tony Hollings (hamstring, doubtful) and may miss T Todd Wade (ankle, questionable).

This game is being played in the RCA Dome, so weather won't be a factor.

Davis is rounding back into form, while the Colts are playing poorly right now. Advantage, Texans.


Indianapolis' Edgerrin James vs. The Houston Defense (Good Matchup)

Edgerrin James and the Colts' OL reasserted their running game on Monday Night Football, cramming the ball down the Viking's throat for a total of 31/144/0. James also added 5/56/0 receiving. This may be the most potent offense in the NFL right now folks. Start him if you've got him.

Houston's defense is one of the best teams in the redzone, having allowed only 3 TDs all season (117 yards per game on average, 19th in the NFL). Lately they have allowed an average of 93 yards per game and 0 TDs (over the last 4 weeks) - that's tough. Denver managed 36/139/0 vs. The Texans, so they have dropped off their pace a bit in the last week. Seth Payne was a top IDP DL last week, with 4 solo tackles, 4 assists, and 1 sack. Jay Foreman cracked the top ten at LB, with 6 solo tackles, 4 assists and 1 pass defensed.

Indianapolis lists G Rick DeMulling (chest, questionable). Houston is in good shape in this phase of the game.

This game is being played in the RCA Dome, so weather won't be a factor.

James is an elite back on an elite offense, while the Texans are tough to score on but fairly generous with the yardage - we think Indianapolis has the guns to broach the Texans' defensive front. Advantage, Indianapolis.


Seattle's Shaun Alexander vs. The St. Louis Defense (Good Matchup)

Shaun Alexander owned the Rams the last time these teams faced off, back in week 5 (23/150/1 rushing with 1/4/0 receiving). Last week, he tore apart the 49ers for 26/160/2 - he has 70/420/3 rushing and 3/13/1 receiving to his credit in the last 3 games (since coach Holmgren reemphasized Alexander's role in the offense) - start him if you've got him. The team averages 4.6 yards per carry this season, tied for 5th in the NFL this year.

Corey Dillon and company trampled the Rams last week for 32/147/1 in the Patriot's bounce-back victory. Over the past 4 weeks, the Rams have surrendered an average of 106 yards and 1.3 TDs in this phase of the game - much better than their season average of 131.9 rushing yards per game. They regressed against the Patriots last week, though. The Rams just aren't very strong in this phase of the game. Damione Lewis was a top IDP DL last week, with 6 solo tackles, 1 assist, 1 sack, a forced fumble and a pass defensed.

Neither team has injuries of note to report.

This game will be played in the Edward Jones Dome, so weather isn't going to be a factor.

Alexander and the Seahawks should enjoy a strong outing against the Rams on Sunday.


Atlanta's Warrick Dunn/T.J. Duckett vs. The Tampa Bay Defense (Good Matchup)

T.J. Duckett and Warrick Dunn split the rushing scores in week 8, with Duckett gaining 8/45/1 vs. The Broncos, while Dunn put up 11/33/1 - Michael Vick led the team with 12/115/0 that day. Dunn added 1/7/0 receiving. The backs have been sharing the load more often in the last few weeks. Dunn has amassed 26/82/1 rushing and 3/79/0 in the last 2 games, while Duckett has 12/53/1 rushing to his credit in that span. They both benefit from an OL that is opening holes wide enough to generate a 4.9 ypc average this season.

Tampa allowed 30/105/1 to the Chiefs last week in this phase of the game. They have averaged 92 rushing yards and 1.0 TDs allowed per game over the past 4 weeks, much better than their season average of 116 rushing yards per game (5 TDs to date). The Buccaneers have stiffened their defensive front as the season goes along. Derrick Brooks was a top IDP LB last week, with 9 solo tackles, 4 assists, and 1 pass defensed.

Atlanta comes into this game off a bye week, so they should be in good shape, health-wise. Tampa lists DT Anthony McFarland (triceps, questionable).

This game is to be played in the Georgia Dome, so weather won't be a factor.

The Falcons have a powerful tandem of backs, and the laser passes that Vick throws forces defenses to always respect the passing game. Tampa fields a decent but not overpowering defensive front - we think the Falcons have the edge in this matchup.


New England's Corey Dillon vs. The Buffalo Defense (Neutral Matchup)

Corey Dillon stuffed a TD into the endzone the last time these two teams met (19/79/1 rushing with 3/23/0 receiving), one of 3 the Bills have allowed this season - Dillon has been effective against the Bills so far as a Patriot. Over the past 3 weeks, Dillon has 47/227/1 rushing and 2/19/0 receiving in 2 games (11th best fantasy RB in fantasy points per game) - he's been running strong since returning from injury, with 25/112/1 and 2/19/0 vs. St. Louis last week.

Buffalo put the brakes on Curtis Martin and the Jets (averaging a gaudy 4.7 yards per carry this season), limiting them to 25/88/0 (a 3.5 yards per carry average). This team can play rush D and has proven it all year, averaging 95.9 rushing yards allowed per game (4th in the NFL) and they are tied for 1st with only 3 rushing scores given up to date. Over the past 4 weeks, they've been a tad softer, allowing 107 per game and .5 TDs per contest. This is still a top-shelf run defense, though, make no doubt about it.

New England has been doing without T Tom Ashworth, who has now been placed on IR. DE Constantine Ritzmann missed last week's game for the Bills (foot, out).

The forecast for Gillette Stadium calls for a high of 40F and a low of 29F with a 40% chance for precipitation. If the snow comes down thickly - possibly mixed with sleet (or as sleet) - footing/ball handling could become a factor. Keep an eye on the forecast as the game approaches.

We expect the Bills to make running room scarce for Dillon and company, but the offense has home-field advantage and Dillon did well against these guys the first time around. We call it an even matchup between two talented squads.


Baltimore's Jamal Lewis vs. The New York Jets' Defense (Neutral Matchup)

Jamal Lewis played ably in his return to the lineup last week, with a total of 105 yards from scrimmage and a score (22/81/1 rushing and 2/24/0 receiving). The Ravens played fairly well in the absence of LT Jonathan Ogden, though Lewis 3.7 ypc average reflected the lack of Ogden (the team averages 4.2 yards per carry this season). As a team the Ravens had 28/106/1 rushing last week.

The Jets' allowed 37/132/1 to Willis McGahee last week, and have been surrendering yards and TDs at a pace of 117 yards and .5 TDs per game over the past 4 weeks - they are usually fairly stout in this phase of the game, as evidenced by their 11th ranking in rushing yards allowed per game so far this season (108.5 per game), with 5 scores allowed to date. Not too shabby. LBs Jonathan Vilma (10 solo tackles, 5 assists and a pass defensed) and Eric Barton (10 solo tackles and 3 assists) were in the top ten IDP LBs.

Ogden is listed as questionable for the game this week, along with T Ethan Brooks (thigh, probable). The Jets are down LB Jason Glenn (broken forearm, out), and DE Shaun Ellis strained his groin last week (questionable). DE John Abraham (illness) and LB Sam Cowart (knee) are both probable. Both squads have injury issues coming into this game.

The forecast for New Jersey calls for a high of 47F and a low of 35F with a 10% chance of precipitation. A crisp autumn day is on tap for this game, it appears.

Lewis is going to get his carries week in and week out, as the Ravens don't have much in the way of a passing game. The Jets will give him some yardage, but scoring is another matter - this looks like a neutral matchup to us. If Ogden can go, that would help Lewis have a better game.


New Orleans' Deuce McAllister vs. The Kansas City Defense (Neutral Matchup)

Deuce McAllister made the most of his limited rushes last week, posting 16/63/1 rushing and 4/18/0 receiving in the drubbing that was the San Diego game. He hasn't racked up much yardage lately (the Saints' offense is sputtering), but he has scored 3 TDs (40/105/3 rushing and 7/35/0 receiving) in the last 2 games, salvaging his fantasy value (8th best fantasy RB in fantasy points per game during the last 3 weeks). He's making the best of a bad situation.

Tampa pounded in 3 TDs via Michael Pittman's legs last week vs. K.C. (20/130/3 rushing as a team). That was atypical for the Chiefs, who have allowed 8 TDs in 8 games (114.3 rushing yards per game, ranking 15th in the NFL this season). Over the past 4 weeks, they've averaged 96 rushing yards allowed per game, and 1.0 TDs per contest - this is an average but not terrible run D most weeks. Pittman's effort looks more like an aberration than a trend at this point.

KC took a major blow when LB Shawn Barber injured his knee (he may be done for the season, and is out this week). MLB Monty Beisel has been missing games due to a bad calf (questionable). DT Junior Siavii (ankle, questionable) missed the action last week as well. DE Vonnie Holliday has an abdomen injury (questionable), while DT John Browning is probable (shoulder). New Orleans comes into this game in good shape, health-wise.

This game is to be played in the Superdome - weather won't be an issue.

The Saints have been struggling in recent weeks, while the Chiefs are a middle-of-the-road defense - at home, we see this as a neutral matchup for the Saints.


Minnesota's Onterrio Smith/Michael Bennett/Moe Williams vs. The Green Bay Defense (Neutral Matchup)

It looks like Onterrio Smith is the starter here in all but name (13/80/1 rushing and 2/15/0 receiving), although Michael Bennett did get some chances to make things happen last week (5/18/0 rushing and 2/15/0 receiving), as did Moe Williams (2/15/0 receiving and 1/13/0 rushing). The Vikings have an awesome OL (first in the NFL averaging 5.1 yards per carry), so Smith should really rack up some fantasy points in this situation. Sorry, Bennett owners.

Green Bay's rush defense is improving quickly - they have allowed an average of 116.1 rushing yards per game (18th in the NFL) and 7 scores to date. Over the past 4 weeks, they've been really tough, though, surrendering only 60 yards per contest on average, and .3 TDs per game. That's impressive. Clinton Portis and company could only muster 81 yards against the Packers in week 8. They've turned up the heat in this phase of the game, folks.

Mewelde Moore is listed as questionable due to his sore ankle. Green Bay comes in off a bye, and they are in good shape now, with only LB Paris Lenon (knee, questionable) to report.

The forecast for Lambeau field calls for a high of 48F with a low of 33F, and a 10% chance of precipitation. Looks like a fine day for football is on tap in Wisconsin.

Two top-performing units clash in this game - neither has a clear upper hand.


Pittsburgh's Jerome Bettis/Duce Staley/Verron Haynes vs. The Cleveland Defense (Neutral Matchup)

The news out of Pittsburgh is that the running back corps is very banged up: 3rd down back Verron Haynes has a very tender turf-toe injury (doubtful), while Staley's hamstring makes his status iffy for the Cleveland game, too (questionable). Bettis has a sore calf, but is probable to play anyway - he may well start. Keep your eye on Staley's status as the week goes along - right now it looks like Bettis will probably be the guy. He filled the full-time RB role just fine last week, with 33/149/0 against the Eagles, so the Steelers won't hesitate to rest Staley if necessary. Rookie Willie Parker is the likely fill-in for Haynes if he is sidelined. Staley and Bettis combined for 151 rushing yards and 2 TDs in the last meeting between these teams in week 5.

Cleveland gave up 28/106/1 to the Ravens last week. They have averaged 95 rushing yards and .3 TDs allowed per game over the past 4 weeks - they are playing the sort of rush D than their season average of 107.3 rushing yards (and season total of 9 TDs) would indicate. In other words, this is a top-ten rush defense. Ebenezer Ekuban was a top IDP DL last week with 3 solo tackles, 1 assist, 1 sack and 1 fumble recovery.

Cleveland is in decent shape coming into the game, while the Steelers also report RB Dan Krieder (hip flexor) as questionable, while C Jeff Hartings is probable (knee).
The forecast for Browns' Stadium calls for a high of 52F and a low of 39F with a 10% chance for rain - that's good football weather in our book.

Two strong squads clash in this matchup, which equals a neutral matchup to us.


St. Louis' Marshall Faulk/Steven Jackson vs. The Seattle Defense (Neutral Matchup)

Marshall Faulk (15/51/0 rushing and 1/4/0 receiving) and Steven Jackson (5/64/0 rushing, 2/11/0 receiving) combined for an effective attack vs. The Seahawks last time around the block (week 5). Over the past 3 weeks, Faulk has rushed for 24/127/0 and caught 14/96/0 in 2 games, while Jackson has managed 9/28/0 and 2/18/0 in that same span. Last week, neither guy did a whole lot , but Faulk saw the lion's share of work (12/66/0 rushing and 6/22/0 receiving), while Jackson was a non-factor (3/1/0 rushing).

Seattle limited the 49ers to 21/74/1 rushing last week - they did a good job defending the 49ers attack. Seattle has been tough in this phase all year long, averaging 96.4 rushing yards allowed per game (5 TDs given up to date). Over the past 4 weeks, the team has surrendered 108 yards and 1.0 TDs per contest - they are slightly off pace, but still pretty tough, as you can see. LB Anthony Simmons was a top IDP LB last week with 5 solo tackles, 1 assist, 1 interception and 1 pass defensed.

T Scott Tercero (shoulder, probable) is listed by St. Louis. DE Grant Wistrom is doubtful (knee), DE Chike Okeafor is questionable (neck), and LB Chad Brown is probable (knee) for Seattle.

This game will be played in the Edward Jones Dome, so weather isn't going to be a factor

Seattle contained the Rams last time around, and they should be a big challenge for the Rams' backs again this week. This looks like a fairly even matchup to us.


Tampa Bay's Michael Pittman vs. The Atlanta Defense (Neutral Matchup)

Michael Pittman has become a fantasy star since 1). Brian Griese emerged to make the passing game respectable and 2). Mike Alstott was knocked out of the lineup by knee injury. Pittman had a great game last week, racking up 15/128/3 rushing and 2/30/0 receiving vs. The Chiefs. He has 38/237/4 rushing and 4/85/0 receiving in the last 2 games (ranking 2nd among all fantasy RBs with 28.1 fantasy points per game, on average). Start him if you have him on your roster.

Atlanta allowed a mere 68 yards rushing to the normally-powerful Denver attack in their week 8 game (0 TDs). It was a vast improvement over their performance in preceding weeks - the team has allowed an average of 145 rushing yards and 3 TDs per game over the last 4 weeks. For the season, the Falcons average 98.3 rushing yards allowed per game, but they are tied for next-to-last in TDs allowed, at 12. This squad has been up and down a lot recently.

Atlanta comes into the game off a bye week - they are reasonably healthy, listing . Tampa lists Alstott (neck, out), and they lost their starting C John Wade for the season this week due to a severe knee injury (dislocated knee cap). Second year pro Sean Mahan will take over the center position this week. Injuries are taking a toll on the Bucs' unit in the past few weeks. DT Rod Coleman is probable (knee) for Atlanta.

This game is to be played in the Georgia Dome, so weather won't be a factor.

Pittman is on fire, but his line took a hit this week. The Falcons have been vulnerable in this phase lately, but played well heading into the bye week. This looks like a neutral matchup to us.


Dallas' RBBC vs. The Philadelphia Defense (Neutral Matchup)

Two embarrassed clubs face off in this matchup - the Eagles were handed their heads on a platter by the Steelers last week (27-3), while Dallas lost badly - to the lowly Bengals (26-3). You could say that both teams are coming into this divisional game on a bad note.

Dallas' RBBC is a big part of the problem - the backs are in neutral more often than not, and opposing teams just haven't needed to respect the run. Last week, against the Bengal's league-worst rush defense, the Cowboys could only scrape together 27/109/0 rushing. ReShard Lee lead the team with 6/39/0. There were very few fantasy points to be found in that game, folks.

Philadelphia's rotten defensive front was shredded by the Steelers last week, to the tune of 56/252/1. The Steelers controlled the ball for 41:49 seconds during the game. It was an all-around smack-down. Over the last four weeks, the Eagles have averaged 172 rushing yards and 1 TD allowed per game (way worse than their poor 130.6 season average, which is 27th in the NFL this year). There is no upside to be found in this phase of the game if you are an Eagles' fan or fantasy owner of their DT. However, DL Sam Rayburn was a top IDP player last week with 3 solo tackles, 1 assist, and 2 sacks.

Dallas continues to list RB Julius Jones as out (shoulder blade), while the Eagles report that DT Sam Rayburn (elbow/concussion) is questionable; LB Dhani Jones (ankle) and DT Corey Simon (calf) are probable to play.

This game is to be played in Texas Stadium on Monday night - the forecast calls for a high of 58F and a low of 51F with a 40% chance of rain. If the rain comes down hard at game time, the field could be slick and the ball may be harder to handle.

You wouldn't think that a 7-1 team could field a rush defense this poor, but the Eagles are doing it. In this battle of the bad, neither squad has a clear advantage.


New York Jets' Curtis Martin vs. The Baltimore Defense (Tough Matchup)

Curtis Martin is finally cooling off after his nuclear-hot start to 2005 - he put up 19/67/0 rushing last week, with no receptions. With Chad Pennington down to a rotator cuff injury, Martin will be featured this week - it would be no surprise to see the Ravens stack the line and dare Quincy Carter to throw at their excellent DBs, though. Over the last 3 weeks, Martin has piled up 58/252/1 rushing and 3/13/0 receiving to rank 28th among all fantasy RBs. Last week was a far cry from the teams' usual ypc average, though (25/88 yields 3.5 yards per carry, 1.2 less than the 4.7 clip they've put up for the season).

Baltimore's rush defense is in the top ten this year (averaging 98.9 yards allowed per game, 7th in the league), and they are tied for least rushing TDs allowed to date with a mere 3 given up in 8 games. Over the last four weeks, they average 91 yards allowed per game, and 0 TDs - no wonder Cleveland only managed 28/91/0 as a team last week! This is an elite NFL defense, folks.

The Jets are in good shape in this phase of the game, while the Ravens list LB Bart Scott (hamstring, probable).

The forecast for New Jersey calls for a high of 47F and a low of 35F with a 10% chance of precipitation. A crisp autumn day is on tap for this game, it appears.

The Ravens represent a stern test for Martin and company this week.


Philadelphia's Brian Westbrook vs. The Dallas Defense (Tough Matchup)

Two embarrassed clubs face off in this matchup - the Eagles were handed their heads on a platter by the Steelers last week (27-3), while Dallas lost badly - to the lowly Bengals (26-3). You could say that both teams are coming into this divisional game on a sour note.

Brian Westbrook was a non-factor in this phase of the game last week, with 6/17/0 rushing and 3/4/0 receiving on the day. After the fiasco, he claimed that his ribs were pain-free - but we're just not convinced. 6/17/0 is just not the sort of game we've come to expect from a healthy Westbrook. Keep an eye on his injury status as the week progresses towards game-day. He's listed as probable on Wednesday. The other backs on the team combined for 3/6/0 rushing - it was a miserable day all the way around.

Dallas contained but did not shut down the Bengals last week (31/116/1), which is consistent with their season average of 123.9 rushing yards allowed per game (24th in the NFL) while giving up only 5 rushing scores to date. Over the last 4 weeks, the team averages 125 yards and 1.0 rushing scores surrendered to the opposition - the Cowboys field an adequate but not outstanding defense in this phase of the game.

Philadelphia's G Jermane Mayberry was sidelined due to a calf injury last week (questionable) and RT Jon Runyan is hobbled by a groin injury (probable), although he continues to gamely soldier on each week. Dallas' defense is essentially healthy at this point in the season, with no serious problems to report.

This game is to be played in Texas Stadium on Monday night - the forecast calls for a high of 58F and a low of 51F with a 40% chance of rain. If the rain comes down hard at game time, the field could be slick and the ball may be harder to handle.

The Eagles have struggled in this phase since Westbrook was injured - now, we'll see if he can make it all the way back against this division rival. The Cowboys have been less bad in recent weeks, and have a huge home-field assist from the 12th man - we give the home team the nod in this matchup. Advantage, Cowboys.


Cincinnati's Rudi Johnson vs. The Washington Defense (Bad Matchup)

Rudi Johnson notched 26/95/0 rushing and 4/19/0 receiving, powering through the 100 yards combined barrier and helping his team win a much-needed victory (he also helped his fantasy owners in leagues where yardage counts for points). 67/271/2 rushing and 6/23/0 receiving puts him at 17th fantasy RB in the land over the last 3 weeks - as the Bengals' offense and Carson Palmer continue to mature in the second half of the season, Johnson's prospects should continue to trend upward.

Washington's rush D is playing at an elite level this season, averaging 84 yards allowed per game (3rd in the NFL) and tied for second-least rushing scores allowed with 4. Over the past 4 weeks, they average 93 rushing yards allowed and .7 TDs per contest - Detroit only mustered 24/64/0 against this defensive front last week - there isn't much room to maneuver when you play the Redskins. Cornelius Griffin was a top IDP DL last week, with 3 solo tackles, 3 assists, 2 sacks and 2 passes defensed.

Cincinnati's RT Willie Anderson is playing on a damaged knee (questionable). RB Chris Perry's abdomen is still bothering him (questionable ), while RB Jeremi Johnson has a sore hammy (probable). G Scott Kooistra has a sore back (probable). Washington's LBs LaVar Arrington (knee, out) and Michael Barrow (knee, questionable) have both missed several games due to their injuries, and last week DE Phillip Daniels, just returned to the lineup from a groin injury, aggravated the injury during the game and could be done for the season (out). DE Renaldo Wynn has a sore ankle (probable).

Washington has found a way to play solid D without all three in the first half of the season, though.

The Forecast for FedEx Field calls for a high of 49F and a low of 33F with a 10% chance for rain. That's the kind of day to enjoy tailgating and a game of football!

This is a bad matchup for the Bengals' evolving offense and for Rudi Johnson.


Detroit's RBBC vs. The Jacksonville Defense (Bad Matchup)

Detroit has beaten out Miami for the coveted "worst yards-per-carry average in the NFL" crown, as they slog along at a season-average clip of 3.2 yards per tote. That's not good at all, folks. They have no clear-cut, every down back, although Kevin Jones has been seeing a majority of touches recently (but not production - 12/20/0 last week) - the team eked out 24/74/0 against the superior Redskins' defense last week. Our advice is to look elsewhere for your fantasy starters until somebody starts producing fantasy-worthy numbers in this phase of the game (Shawn Bryson cobbled together 49 yards last week (21 rushing and 28 receiving) to lead the stable).

Jacksonville's rush D had faded out of the top ten, and now sits at #12 allowing an average of 108.8 rushing yards per game this season, but they have only given up 4 rushing scores so far (tied for second-least in the NFL). Over the past 4 weeks, the D has resurfaced and averages only 86 rushing yards allowed per game (with 0 TDs allowed in that span. Houston managed 93 yards and 0 TDs vs. The Jags in week 8.

Jacksonville comes off a bye week, and should be rested and ready to play, with only LB Daryl Smith (knee, questionable) listed. The Lions list RB Stephen Trejo as doubtful (knee).

The forecast for Alltel Stadium calls for a high of 73F with a low of 60F and a 10% chance of rain. Except for all those hurricanes, Floridians enjoy lovely weather, don't they?

Detroit has hit rock-bottom in this phase, while the Jaguars are on their way back to the top level of rush defense - this is a bad matchup for Detroit.


Cleveland's Lee Suggs/William Green vs. The Pittsburgh Defense (Bad Matchup)

Lee Suggs led the Browns last week, with 18/56/0 rushing and 1/7/0 receiving against the hard-nosed Ravens' D. William Green had less luck (8/10/0 rushing and 1/10/0 receiving) - it was a lackluster day in general for the Browns, who failed to score a TD on offense last week. Over the last 3 weeks, Suggs has 33/134/1 rushing and 3/12/0 receiving to his credit (31st fantasy RB in the land), while Green has 22/74/1 rushing and 2/13/0 receiving (37th fantasy RB during that span). Suggs had 11/30/0 rushing vs. Pittsburgh back in week 5, while Green managed 3/27/0 (3/20/0 and 1/3/0 receiving, respectively). It was not their best game of the year, needless to say.

Pittsburgh's rush defense has been dominant in the past 4 weeks allowing an average of 43 yards rushing and .3 TDs to their opponents. Yes, 43 - Brian Westbrook and company could only muster 9/23/0 all game last week. This sustained dominance at the NFL level of play is mind bogglingly good, folks. James Farrior was a top IDP LB last week, with 4 solo tackles, 1 assist, 1 sack, 1 interception, and 1 pass defensed.

Cleveland comes into the game having lost RG Kelvin Garmon for the season due to a severe knee injury sustained in last week's game. Pittsburgh reports DE Travis Kirschke (back) as probable.

The forecast for Browns' Stadium calls for a high of 52F and a low of 39F with a 10% chance for rain - that's good football weather in our book.

This game looks like a bad matchup for Suggs, Green and company.

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