Forums
SiteMap
Login / Signup  
  Home  
Articles
•  Forecast  
•  Humor  
•  Links  
•  News  
•  Stats  
•  Tools  
•  Updates  
 
Pre  · 1  · 2  · 3  · 4  · 5  · 6  · 7  · 8  · 9  · 10  · 11  · 12  · 13  · 14  · 15  · 16  · 17  · P1  · P2  · P3  · P4
Rushing Matchups - Week 13

Hi Folks,

Here's our look at the Rushing Matchups for this week.

PLEASE NOTE: This does NOT replace the Cheatsheet ranking. The
Cheatsheet rankings are the final say on where we see a player for
that week. The Matchup Breakdowns are simply one more tool in the box
when it comes to helping choose your lineup.

Also note, just because a player has a "bad" matchup, it does NOT mean
he's not a starter in your league. If Shaun Alexander is playing the
toughest rush defense in the league, that just means he's got a tough
matchup that week. He's also your starter. In the same way, if the
worst RB on your roster has a "great" matchup, that doesn't
necessarily mean you start him, it just means he'll likely fare better
this week than he normally would.

Bottom line, the cheatsheets are the final word.

Let's jump to it.

Joe

**************************************
Joe Bryant
Owner – www.Footballguys.com


** Quick Index: Great Matchups Detroit's Kevin Jones vs. The Arizona Defense Carolina's Nick Goings vs. The New Orleans' "Defense" New England's Corey Dillon vs. The Cleveland Defense Washington's Clinton Portis/Ladell Betts vs. The New York Defense Indianapolis' Edgerrin James vs. The Tennessee Defense Good Matchups: Atlanta's Three-Headed Monster vs. The Tampa Bay Defense Tampa Bay's Michael Pittman/Mike Alstott vs. The Atlanta Defense Buffalo's Willis McGahee vs. The Miami Defense Cincinnati's Rudi Johnson vs. The Baltimore Defense Green Bay's Ahman Green/Najeh Davenport vs. The Philadelphia Defense Kansas City's Derrick Blaylock vs. The Oakland Defense Minnesota's Onterrio Smith vs. The Chicago Defense St. Louis' Marshall Faulk/Steven Jackson vs. The San Francisco Defense Tennessee's Antowain Smith/Chris Brown? vs. The Indianapolis Defense Dallas' Julius Jones vs. The Seattle Defense Neutral Matchups: Arizona's Larry Croom/Josh Scobey vs. The Detroit Defense New Orleans' Deuce McAllister vs. The Carolina Defense San Diego's LaDainian Tomlinson vs. The Denver Defense Philadelphia's Brian Westbrook vs. The Green Bay Defense Oakland's RBBC vs. The Kansas City Defense Chicago's Thomas Jones vs. The Minnesota Defense San Francisco's RBBC vs. The St. Louis Defense Seattle's Shaun Alexander vs. The Dallas Defense Tough Matchups: Miami's Travis Minor/Sammy Morris vs. The Buffalo Defense Baltimore's Chester Taylor vs. The Cincinnati Defense Denver's Rueben Droughns vs. The San Diego Defense Houston's Domanick Davis vs. The New York Jets' Defense New York Jets' Curtis Martin vs. The Houston Defense New York's Tiki Barber vs. The Washington Defense Pittsburgh's Duce Staley/Jerome Bettis vs. The Jacksonville Defense Jacksonville's Fred Taylor vs. The Pittsburgh Defense Bad Matchups: Cleveland's William Green/Lee Suggs? vs. The New England Defense Detroit's Kevin Jones vs. The Arizona Defense (Great Matchup) 12/99/0 yielded a gaudy 8.3 yards per carry for Kevin Jones last week – he is definitely finding his stride in the final weeks of the season. Shawn Bryson also broke some nice runs, with 7/51/0 to his credit – the Lions ran the ball well on Thanksgiving. Jones has 50/280/0 rushing and 8/10/0 receiving to his credit over the past 3 weeks – the lack of TDs is depressing his fantasy value (21st in fantasy points per game over that span), but he is definitely progressing in his development. Arizona was trampled by the Jets last week (38/146/0), but they didn't give up a TD – they average 133 rushing yards allowed per game, with 7 TDs given up this season. Over the last 4 weeks, the Cards are coughing up yards at a clip of 155 yards and 1.3 TDs per game. They are not playing well in this phase of the game. Arizona lists DTs Russell Davis (foot) and Darnell Dockett (groin) as probable to play. Detroit's good to go on their side of the ball. This game is to be played at Ford Field – weather won't be a factor. Jones should enjoy a solid outing vs. the fading Cardinals – their offense doesn't figure to do much with a rookie at the helm, so Jones' team will have ample time of possession, we expect.
Carolina's Nick Goings vs. The New Orleans' "Defense" (Great Matchup) Carolina has found a back to rely on in Nick Goings. He isn't the type of slashing flashy type runner, but that's not what the Panthers need in their offense, either. A credible threat to run the ball opens up enough room in the passing game for Delhomme and company to burn people through the air – which backs a defense off the line, opening up running room… Last week, he ran for 23/106/0, a 4.6 yards per carry average. Over the past 3 weeks, Goings has 53/269/3 rushing and 9/88/0 receiving to his credit, putting him at #11 among all fantasy backs during that span. The Saints are dead last in the NFL allowing an average of 264.5 passing yards (20 TDs so far) and dead last at run D allowing an average of 153.8 rushing yards per game (13 TDs given away). Pathetic is the kindest word we can think of to describe the Saints' D. They coughed up 33/186/1 to the Falcons last week. The Saints really stink in both phases of the game, folks. Aside from all the guys on IR, the Panthers come into this game in decent shape – RB Brad Hoover's back/hip is feeling better (probable). New Orleans' LB corps is likely to be without Derrick Rogers (back, doubtful), and Sedrick Hodge has a strained MCL (questionable). LB Colby Cockwoldt has an injured shoulder (questionable). This game is to be played in the Superdome – weather won't be an issue. Carolina's latest RB should enjoy a solid game vs. the ultra-mushy Saints.
New England's Corey Dillon vs. The Cleveland Defense (Great Matchup) Corey Dillon has become very comfortable as a Patriot, and his numbers show it – 82/372/3 rushing and 2/25/0 receiving over the last 3 games (30/123/1 rushing last week in the muck at Gillette Stadium). The passing game is proficient and must be respected, as must Dillon. It's all good for Dillon owners right now. Rudi Johnson demolished the Browns, stacking up 26/202/2 in this phase last week. The Browns' defense was deeply embarrassed in a 58-48 loss. They hit the nadir of their 2004 season last week. Forget the season averages, etc. – this team is demoralized and now under a care-taker interim coach – how they respond to the change is anyone's guess. But realize that every guy on the team knows they are just playing out the string until a new regime arrives after the owner hires a new GM in the off-season. Both teams are in good shape at this stage of the season, with no new injuries of note to report in this phase of the game. The forecast for Cleveland Browns Stadium calls for a high of 52F and a low of 43F with a 20% chance for rain. That's great December weather in that part of the world. Dillon should have a great time grinding down the remnants of Butch Davis' former team.
Washington's Clinton Portis/Ladell Betts vs. The New York Defense (Great Matchup) Ladell Betts scraped up 69 yards from scrimmage last week; Portis had 17. Neither guy is a fantasy gold-mine at this point in the season – with the passing game sputtering, opposing defenses load up against the run. Portis will remain the starter (they are paying him too much not to start him), but expect a quick hook if he's ineffective again this week. That's unlikely, though, as the Giants' defensive front is a shambles. The Giant's rebuilt DL isn't getting the job done right now (they've lost 3 DL to IR in the last 2 weeks) – 38/152/2 rushing by the Eagles last week shows you just what the current unit is capable of in this phase of the game (not much). Over the last 4 weeks, the Giants have surrendered an average of 145 rushing yards and 1.5 TDs per contest. They are sinking into oblivion at this point in the season. Forget what happened way back in week 2 – too many subtractions from the Giants' defense have occurred in the last 11 weeks: comparison is not useful in this case. DEs Lorenzo Bromell (knee) and Chuck Wiley (knee) are both out; DT Norman Hand (groin) is doubtful, LB Nick Greisen (ankle) is questionable, and LB Barrett Green (knee) is probable to go for the Giants – that doesn't include all the guys on IR, of course. Washington lists G Randy Thomas (hamstring) as doubtful, T Mark Wilson (knee) as questionable, and T Chris Samuels (ankle) as probable as of Wednesday. That's a lot of walking wounded on both sides of the line, folks. The forecast for FedEx Field calls for a high of 53F and a low of 35F with a 20% chance for rain. A nice, crisp autumn day is on tap for this game, it appears. Portis has an excellent shot at a great game vs. the shattered Giants' defensive front.
Indianapolis' Edgerrin James vs. The Tennessee Defense (Great Matchup) 21/124/2 was the total the Edgerrin James slapped down on Tennessee back in week 2 this year. Since that game, the Colts' offense has only gotten more lethal. 23/105/0 rushing and 3/16/0 receiving were James' totals last week – he has 66/395/1 rushing and 6/41/0 receiving in the last 3 weeks (13th best fantasy RB in that span). Start him. 21/149/2 was the tally for the Texans vs. Tennessee last week – the Titans average 134 rushing yards allowed per game over the last 4 weeks, with 1 TD per game surrendered. They are in the middle of the NFL pack this season, ranking 16th while allowing an average of 115.3 rushing yards per game – but they have fallen significantly off that pace in recent weeks. The mounting injury toll is making dragging down the Titan defense. LBs Rocky Boiman (calf) and Cody Spencer (abdomen) and DTs Albert Haynesworth (elbow) and Rein Long (knee) are listed as questionable by the Titans. Indy's line is somewhat depleted, with G Tupe Peko doubtful due to an ankle injury, C Jeff Saturday nursing a calf injury (questionable) and G Rick DeMulling healing a chest injury (probable). James has a sore thigh (probable). This game will be played in the air-conditioned comfort of the RCA Dome – weather isn't an issue. Look for James and company to romp all over the field against the limping and depleted Titans.
Dallas' Julius Jones vs. The Seattle Defense (Good Matchup) Julius Jones is coming into his own as an NFL player after struggling through a shoulder blade injury in the early to mid parts of the season. He has rushed for 63/231/2 since returning to active duty, including a great 33/150/2 effort on Thanksgiving. He is the bright spot on the offense right now. Seattle's rush defense is not a bright spot right now. They allowed 37/148/4 to Willis McGahee and company last week. They have given up 123 yards, and 1.8 rushing scores per game over the last 4 weeks – the team ranks 12th in the league this season averaging 108.2 rushing yards allowed per game (with 11 scores surrendered) – they are definitely heading in the wrong direction if the playoffs are to be a destination. Dallas lists G Andre Gurode as questionable (knee) and RB Richie Anderson (concussion) as probable on the week's first injury report. LBs Chad Brown (knee) and Tracy White (hamstring) are both out for the Seahawks, and DE Chike Okeafor is limping (ankle, questionable). The forecast for Qwest Field calls for a high of 45F with a low of 36F and an 80% chance of rain. If the rain pours down at game time, field conditions could deteriorate and both footing and ball-handling would become much more treacherous. Jones has a good shot at a solid game vs. the Seahawks.
Atlanta's Three-Headed Monster vs. The Tampa Bay Defense (Good Matchup) As expected, Atlanta ran roughshod over the pathetic Saints, with 33/186/1 as a team (10/69/1 for Vick, 11/59/0 for Dunn, 12/58/0 for Duckett) – as you can see, they are splitting the carries up pretty evenly right now. Considering their OL leads the NFL averaging 5.1 yards per carry, it makes sense for the Falcons to be run-oriented – but fantasy owners of Dunn and Duckett are getting shortchanged in the TD and yardage departments thanks to their talented signal caller. With the team in 2nd in the NFC at this point in the season, don't expect the mix to change much now. Back in week 10, the breakdown vs. Tampa was this: Dunn led the team with 17/76/0; Vick was next with 9/73/0; while Duckett punched in 12/53/2. A three-headed monster, just like the header says. Tampa Bay ranks 19th in the NFL this season, allowing an average of 119.7 rushing yards per game (7 TDs total). Over the past 4 weeks, the numbers are 124 rushing yards allowed per game, with .8 rushing scores surrendered per contest. Carolina's reserves managed 25/112/0 vs. the Buccaneers last week. They are a mediocre rush D in 2004. Both teams enjoy reasonably good health at this point in the season. FB Justin Griffith has a sore knee (probable). Tampa's DT Dewayne White has a sore calf (probable). The forecast for Raymond James Stadium calls for a high of 75F and a low of 63F with a 60% chance of rain. If the rain falls thickly during the game, footing and ball-handling could become issues (as we saw in New England last week, the fields are pretty tore up in certain venues right now). Atlanta deploys a blue-chip rushing attack, while the Buccaneers are in the middle of the NFL pack. Advantage, Falcons.
Tampa Bay's Michael Pittman/Mike Alstott vs. The Atlanta Defense (Good Matchup) Last week, the running game didn't get off the ground (28/62/0 vs. the rejuvenated Panther's defense) but Michael Pittman was still a hot fantasy property with 18/29/0 rushing plus 8/134/2 receiving – he scored all the team's TDs. Pittman has put up 59/197/2 rushing and 12/150/2 receiving over his past 3 games, to rank 5th among all fantasy backs in points per game. He's worthy of starting every week. Alstott chipped in with 6/15/0 rushing and 2/19/0 receiving last week. 20/62/0 rushing with 4/16/0 receiving was the tally for Pittman vs. Atlanta back in week 10. Atlanta's defensive front 7 allowed 28/141/1 to the Saints last week, which is a lot more yardage than normal (the team averages 101.3 rushing yards allowed per game this year), but not more scoring – they have allowed 13 rushing scores to date, which ties for 3rd-most in the NFL at this point. Over the past 4 weeks, though, they have stiffened, giving up 109 rushing yards and .3 scores per contest – the Saints game was atypical in most ways. Tampa is in good shape coming into the game (C Shaun Mahan has a sore shoulder, probable), as are the Falcons (DE Brady Smith has a sore ankle, probable) – injuries aren't a big factor in this game. The forecast for Raymond James Stadium calls for a high of 75F and a low of 63F with a 60% chance of rain. If the rain falls thickly during the game, footing and ball-handling could become issues (as we saw in New England last week, the fields are pretty torn up in certain venues right now). Michael Pittman is on fire right now, while the Falcons broke down last week, and they have been soft in the red-zone at points this season. With home-field advantage at Pittman's back, we think he has a slight edge in the rematch.
Buffalo's Willis McGahee vs. The Miami Defense (Good Matchup) McGahee trampled the Dolphins in his last start against them, back in week 6, with 26/111/0 rushing and 3/31/0 receiving to his credit. This week, key MLB Zach Thomas is sidelined due to a bad hamstring – McGahee's prospects look good. He put up 28/116/4 rushing with 2/26/0 receiving last week – that's a fantasy owner's dream game. The guy has 63/253/4 rushing and 6/65/0 receiving to his credit over the last 3 games – outstanding production. Miami's 29th ranked rush defense (allowing an average of 136.6 rushing yards per game this season) stuffed Kevan Barlow and company last week (24/77/1), although they did give up a score to Maurice Hicks. The team averages 105 rushing yards allowed per game over the last 4 weeks (1 TD per game) – they have been playing pretty well. One problem for the Dolphins is that their MLB Zach Thomas has a bad hamstring pull and won't be able to play this Sunday. Neither will fellow LB Tony Bua (quadriceps). LB Eddie Moore has a sore knee (probable), and DT Mario Monds has an injured hand (probable). Buffalo lost Travis Henry for a while to a leg injury (out) – it was originally feared to be season ending, but turned out not to be as serious as was first thought. The forecast for ProPlayer Stadium in Miami calls for a high of 82F and a low of 67F with a 10% chance of rain – this is why people live in South Florida despite hurricane season. McGahee should enjoy a solid game vs. the Dolphins.
Cincinnati's Rudi Johnson vs. The Baltimore Defense (Good Matchup) Rudi Johnson played in a game where his team scored 58 points last week – he had a great afternoon, with 26/202/2 to his credit on the ground, and 1/5/0 receiving. It was a dream afternoon for owners of the Bengals' players. Over the past 3 weeks, he has amassed 73/366/3 rushing and 2/6/0 receiving. He is improving steadily as the second half of the season goes by. Baltimore gave up 23/98/0 to Johnson back in week 3, which is about what you would expect considering that the team averages 107.7 rushing yards allowed per game this season (with 6 rushing scores allowed to date). Over the past 4 weeks, they are playing off their season pace, giving up 121 yards and .8 TDs per game on average. The Bengals list T Willie Anderson as probable (knee), while RB Chris Perry is questionable (abdomen). LBs Cornell Brown (infection) and Bart Scott (ankle) are both questionable for the Ravens. RB Alan Ricard has a knee injury (questionable). The forecast for M&T Bank Stadium calls for a high of 53F and a low of 39F with a 20% chance for rain – that's great football weather in our book. Johnson has a shot at a decent game vs. the Ravens, but don't expect a lot of TDs and you won't be disappointed.
Green Bay's Ahman Green/Najeh Davenport vs. The Philadelphia Defense (Good Matchup) As of mid-week, the Packers are being very cautious with Ahman Green. But there is a lot of time between now and Sunday. Green owners will want to monitor the situation as the practices go by to make sure Green doesn't suffer a setback. If Green can't play, Najeh Davenport is certainly a suitable replacement (19/178/1 rushing and 1/8/0 receiving last week in the drubbing of St. Louis). The Packers are second in the league averaging 4.8 rushing yards per carry – the OL gets the job done (only 5 sacks allowed to date, too). Philadelphia's rush defense has been up and down this season, currently ranking 20th in the NFL allowing an average of 120.7 rushing yards per game with 7 scores surrendered to date. Coach Reid shook up the lineup a few weeks back, which has been a qualified success – the team is still surrendering yardage in big chunks (an average of 134 rushing yards allowed per game over the past 4 weeks), but they have given up an average of .5 TDs in this phase during that span. The Giants took them for 26/161/1 last week – this is the weakest unit on the Eagles' 10-1 team, without a doubt. The Eagles list DE Jerome McDougle as doubtful (knee); DE Derrick Burgess is questionable (ribs), as is LB Nate Wayne (hamstring); LB Keith Adams (ankle/illness), and DT Hollis Thomas (groin) are probable to play. RB Najeh Davenport is questionable due to tender hamstrings and sore ribs; Ahman Green is listed as probable (ribs). The forecast for Lincoln Financial Field calls for a high of 52F with a low of 38F and a 20% chance for rain. A fine autumnal day is on tap for this game, it appears. Green and/or Davenport should have a good game against the soft Eagle's defensive front.
Kansas City's Derrick Blaylock vs. The Oakland Defense (Good Matchup) This one's for pride, as Denver and San Diego have run away with the AFC West this season. However, both of these teams have proud traditions, and this rivalry is long and bitter – look for a strong effort from both squads. Derrick Blaylock had 8/57/2 rushing and 3/21/0 receiving last week against the tough Charger's defense – it was a good fantasy performance for his owners. He's piled up 60/301/3 rushing and 11/92/0 receiving over the past 3 weeks, to rank as the 7th best fantasy back during that time-frame. The guy has game. K.C. is tied for 3rd in the NFL averaging 4.7 yards per carry – as Holmes has been ruled out this week again, start Blaylock if you've got him. Larry Johnson will likely see work again but we think this is Blaylock's show for now. Oakland managed to squeak past Denver last week, while allowing 34/122/1 to the Broncos' backs. They are usually in that neighborhood lately, averaging 112 rushing yards and 1 TD per game allowed over the last 4 weeks. Those numbers are better than the teams' season average of 125.5 rushing yards allowed per contest (22nd in the NFL) –there has been marginal improvement. LB Travian Smith is out for the Raiders (knee injury); DE Tyler Brayton is doubtful due to a neck injury; DT Warren Sapp has a sore hip (probable). The forecast for Network Associates Coliseum calls for a high of 55F and a low of 40F with a 10% chance for rain. Blaylock has good prospects for a solid game vs. the hated Raiders.
Minnesota's Onterrio Smith vs. The Chicago Defense (Good Matchup) Back in week 3 Onterrio Smith had 198 yards combined (17/94/0 rushing and 6/104/0 receiving) against the Bears, and that was before they lost MLB Brian Urlacher. Smith posted 20/72/0 rushing and 3/18/0 receiving last week vs. Jacksonville, and has 33/120/0 rushing and 7/45/1 receiving in the last 3 weeks – he's just now starting to get comfortable in the leading role again. The Vikings OL averages 4.7 yards per carry no matter who carries the ball – Smith has all the help he needs up front. 40/154/2 was the total when the Cowboys were done with the Bears last week. They have averaged 148 rushing yards allowed and 1.3 TDs per game over the last 4 weeks, with a season average of 135.5 rushing yards allowed per game (7 scores to date) – they aren't very good in this phase of the game. C Matt Birk (abdomen) is out for the Vikings. G David Dixon (knee) and T Nat Dorsey (shoulder) are probable to play as of Wednesday. LBs Marcus Reese (foot) and Urlacher (leg) are listed as questionable, as is DT Tommie Harris (ankle). DE Adewale Ogunleye is probable (leg). This forecast for Soldier Field calls for a high of 50F with a low of 41 and a 20% chance of rain – that's balmy weather for Chicago in the month of December, folks. Smith should find ample space to operate in this week – advantage, Minnesota.
St. Louis' Steven Jackson/Marshall Faulk? vs. The San Francisco Defense (Good Matchup) 53 passing attempts vs. 17 rushes in the last game – coach Martz's willingness to abandon the run at the slightest excuse has destroyed Marshall Faulk (38/152/0 rushing with 14/48/1 receiving) and Steven Jackson's (25/116/1 rushing, with 4/47/0 receiving) fantasy value over the past 3 weeks. Faulk ranks 28th among all fantasy backs in fantasy points per week, Jackson ranks 48th so far in 2004. The backs are now an after-thought in the Rams offense. The one game this season where the talents of the running backs were fully utilized was in week 4 vs. San Francisco, when the Rams rushed for 36/174/2 vs. San Francisco (and their D is worse now than it was then). 26/49/0 was all the Dolphins could muster against the 49ers last week – but their top back was out with injured ribs (and the Dolphins have an anemic offense to begin with). Over the past 4 weeks, the 49ers have surrendered 112 rushing yards per game on average, with 1.3 TDs given away – the Dolphins' result is more due to their ineptitude than a sudden resurgence on the 49ers part. The latest word on Faulk's knee is that it's worse than advertised and it might actually keep him out of this week's game. That would obviously mean more Steven Jackson. Stay tuned to the Players In The News for up to date news. G Chris Dishman is out for this game (knee). LB Ray Wells has a bum ankle that has kept him out for weeks (questionable). This game is to be played in the Edward Jones Dome – weather won't be an issue. The 49ers are not strong in this phase of the game, and the Rams have talent at RB – will they use their gifted athletes?
Tennessee's Antowain Smith/Chris Brown? vs. The Indianapolis Defense (Good Matchup) Will Chris Brown be able to play this week, or won't he? That's a big question so keep an eye on how he practices Thursday or Friday. He is listed as "questionable" on the Titan's questionable injury report. Antowain Smith has been solid in relief of Brown, so the team doesn't have any particular urgency to rush Brown back in, especially now that they are out of the AFC playoff picture. 47/189/1 is the total the Smith has amassed in a little over 2 games worth of duty. Brown did have a fine game against the Colts in week 2 (26/152/1). The Colts allowed 21/168/0 to the Lions last week – they were not strong in this phase of the game. The team has averaged 129 rushing yards and .8 TDs allowed per game over the last 4 weeks – a little worse than their season average of 118.8 rushing yards allowed per game (with 9 rushing scores given up to date). They are a middle-of-the-pack bunch, ranking 18th in the NFL this season. Not horrible, but not great, either. T Brad Hopkins is out for the Titans (hand surgery), while T Fred Miller has an ankle injury (questionable). DE Josh Thomas has a bum knee (out); LB Gilbert Gardner (hamstring), LB Cato June (ankle) DE Robert Mathis (groin) and LB Kendyll Pope (thigh) are all listed as probable to play this week for the Colts. This game will be played in the air-conditioned comfort of the RCA Dome – weather isn't an issue. Whoever starts for the Titans should enjoy a solid outing against the mediocre Colts.
Chicago's Thomas Jones vs. The Minnesota Defense (Neutral Matchup) Well, Jeff George is in the house and the Bears are turning to their 4th starting QB this season, Chad Hutchinson. In Hutchinson's abbreviated career as a starting QB (9 games with Dallas in 2002) he has put up 127/250 for 1555 yards, 7 TDs and 8 interceptions. Thomas Jones had a great game against the Vikings back in week 3, with 22/110/1 rushing and 8/71/0 receiving on the day – he had a credible passing game powered by Rex Grossman at that point, though. Jones managed 14/46/0 rushing and led the team with 6/48/0 receiving last week against Dallas – he's still featured in the attack, but the attack has gotten worse with the merry-go-round of reserves lining up under center. Look for the Vikings to stack the line and dare Hutchinson to throw the ball this week, which will pinch Jones' rushing lanes. Last week, the Jaguars ripped off 21/154/0 against the Vikings, which is not surprising considering they are giving up yardage at a pace of 163 rushing yards per game over the last 4 weeks. However, they have given up 0 rushing scores during that span, so the team is doing something right. The Vikes are 23rd in the NFL this year averaging 126.5 rushing yards allowed per game, with 12 rushing scores given away to date. LB Raonall Smith is doubtful due to concussion-related problems. Chicago lists star RT John Tait as doubtful (knee) – that won't help Jones any – and say RB Bryan Johnson is questionable. This forecast for Soldier Field calls for a high of 50F with a low of 41 and a 20% chance of rain – that's balmy weather for Chicago in the month of December, folks. Chicago's offense is struggling, as are the Viking's defenders – this one is a toss up in our eyes.
Oakland's RBBC vs. The Kansas City Defense (Neutral Matchup) This one's for pride, as Denver and San Diego have run away with the AFC West this season. However, both of these teams have proud traditions, and this rivalry is long and bitter – look for a strong effort from both squads. Oakland has ruled Tyrone Wheatley out for this game at midweek, so it looks like the J.R. Redmond/Amos Zereoue/Justin Fargas show will be at center stage vs. K.C. They managed 7/20/0 between the three of them last week vs. Denver. It's unlikely there will be a valuable, starting caliber fantasy back among this trio in week 13. Kansas City allowed a total of 31/127/2 to the Chargers last week, but limited LaDainian Tomlinson to 21/46/2 (a 2.2 yards per carry average). Two big runs by WR Eric Parker (29 yards each) made the K.C. rush D look bad – but they usually allow right around 120 yards per game lately (122 per game over the last 4 weeks, with an average of 2.3 rushing TDs per game). The team is the 17th ranked rush D this year, allowing an average of 115.7 rushing yards per game, but they have coughed up 14 rushing scores (second-worst in the NFL). The Chiefs are mediocre to sub par in this phase of the game on any given Sunday. G Ron Stone (knee) is also out for the Raiders. K.C. says DE Vonnie Holliday is out (groin); LB Monty Beisel is questionable (calf), and DT Junior Siavii (ankle) is also questionable. Injuries have bitten both squads in recent weeks. The forecast for Network Associates Coliseum calls for a high of 55F and a low of 40F with a 10% chance for rain. Oakland is likely to have a hard time moving the ball with the backup talent they have on their bench – but the Chiefs are soft. This is an ugly, even, matchup.
Philadelphia's Brian Westbrook vs. The Green Bay Defense (Neutral Matchup) Brian Westbrook has gone on a tear in the last 3 weeks, with 45/193/2 rushing and 14/157/3 receiving to his credit – he's been an awesome dual-threat back during the second half of the season. Last week he slashed the Giants for 18/74/1 rushing and 5/53/1 receiving – it's all good for Westbrook owners right now. Green Bay's run D wasn't really tested last week, as the Rams only ran the ball 17 times (17/47/0). Over the last 4 weeks, they have averaged 75 rushing yards allowed and 0 TDs, so teams haven't had a lot of luck running at them even when they try harder – they are a top ten rush D this year, allowing an average of 104.9 rushing yards per game (7 TDs to date). This is a solid defensive front when all the key guys are healthy (as they are right now). Philadelphia's OL is banged up right now, with LG Artis Hicks nursing an injured knee (questionable) and Jermane Mayberry limited to parts of games due to his nagging calf injury (questionable). RB Reno Mahe is doubtful to play (ankle).G Steve Sciullo (quadriceps) is probable to play. DT Grady Jackson has a sore knee (probable). The forecast for Lincoln Financial Field calls for a high of 52F with a low of 38F and a 20% chance for rain. A fine autumnal day is on tap for this game, it appears. Westbrook is hot, as are the Packers' defenders. This is a neutral matchup between top-performing units.
Arizona's Larry Croom/Josh Scobey vs. The Detroit Defense (Neutral Matchup) The word on Emmitt Smith at midweek is that the Cardinals do not expect him to play this week. Therefore, we expect to see Larry Croom and Josh Scobey carry the load, with Croom seeing a majority of the carries and Scobey doing change of pace/passing situation work. Before you run out and sign one of these guys, though, realize that the Cardinals are plugging a rookie QB into the starting lineup this week. Detroit will almost certainly pack 7-8 guys in the box, run lots of blitzes and dare Arizona to beat them through the air. Running room for Smith's backups is likely to be scarce. Croom managed 10/25/0 rushing and 1/8/0 receiving last week; Scobey put up 5/5/0 rushing and 3/14/0 receiving. That's slim pickings no matter how you look at it. Detroit's entire defense was deconstructed by the Colts last week, Edgerrin James rushed for 23/105/0 (29/113/0 as a team) while Peyton Manning tossed 6 TDs and 0 interceptions. The Lions were clearly outmatched. Over the past 4 weeks, their defensive front has been blown up for an average of 154 rushing yards per game, with .5 TDs given up per contest. That's even worse than their 21st ranking for the season (124.3 rushing yards allowed per game on average). Aside from Smith's left big toe/ankle injury (questionable), the Cardinals list T Leonard Davis (knee, probable). Detroit's defense has been doing without LB Boss Bailey all season (knee, out). DE Jared DeVries has a sore groin (questionable). This game is to be played at Ford Field – weather won't be a factor. Arizona's backs are not being put in a position to succeed, but the Lions' defense isn't very good – we call this one a neutral matchup.
New Orleans' Deuce McAllister vs. The Carolina Defense (Neutral Matchup) Carolina's defense has surged into form in recent weeks, and they closely resemble the squad that propelled the club to the 2003 Super-Bowl – over the past 4 weeks, the Panthers have allowed 82 rushing yards per game (1.3 TDs during that span). The defensive front is getting into the opposition's backfield again, too. They are much better than their season average of 126.7 rushing yards allowed per game would suggest. 28/62/0 was the total for Tampa Bay on the ground last week. Deuce McAllister has also rounded back into form in the last few weeks, racking up 52/269/1 rushing and 15/97/0 receiving in his last 3 outings. Last week, against the stout Falcons, McAllister piled up 23/100/0 rushing with 4/10/0 receiving. The lack of TDs is depressing his fantasy value in recent weeks, but he seems back to 100% as far as his cutting and acceleration goes. The Panthers aren't sure when or if MLB Dan Morgan will return to the lineup this season (concussions/post concussion symptoms, doubtful). LB Brian Allen has a pectoral injury (questionable), and DT Brentson Buckner is also questionable (knee). DT Kindal Moorehead (ankle) and DE Kemp Rasmussen (neck) are probable. The Saints list G Montrae Holland (foot) and G Kendyl Jacox (knee) as questionable. This game is to be played in the Superdome – weather won't be an issue. McAllister and the Panthers will battle hard on Sunday – neither looks like they have a definitive edge.
San Diego's LaDainian Tomlinson vs. The Denver Defense (Neutral Matchup) Considering that Oakland and Kansas City are essentially eliminated from contention in the AFC West, expect a playoff level of intensity between these division rivals in this rematch of their week 3 game. San Diego (8-3) has a slim margin over Denver (7-4), but dropped the first decision 23-13 to the Broncos at Mile High Stadium. The Chargers could only muster 30/85/1 against the Broncos in that game (22/60/0 for Tomlinson). Last week, Tomlinson had 21/46/2 vs. the Chiefs (with 10/57/0 receiving) – he had a rough game. He has 58/210/3 rushing with 11/66/0 receiving in his last 2 games – the 46 yard effort is not normal for this back (237/899/11 rushing with 38/315/0 receiving to his credit so far this season). San Diego averages 4.3 yards per carry as a team this season. Denver was stout vs. the Raiders' backs last week, allowing 18/61/0 on the ground – they are tied with Buffalo for 4th in the NFL this season, allowing an average of 96.8 rushing yards per game, with 10 scores given up to date. Over the past 4 weeks, they have averaged 71 rushing yards allowed per game, with .7 TDs surrendered per game in that span. They are one of the premier defensive fronts in the NFL. Denver's group will play without DE Trevor Pryce (back), and DT Luther Ellis is doubtful (calf injury). San Diego's unit lists RB Jesse Chatman (toe) as probable. Injuries aren't a huge factor in this matchup. The forecast for Qualcomm Stadium calls for a high of 55F with a low of 42F with a 30% chance of rain. If the rain pours down at game-time, footing and ball-handling could become issues in this phase of the contest. Look for Tomlinson and Denver to battle hard all day long – neither has a clear edge over the other from where we sit.
San Francisco's RBBC vs. The St. Louis Defense (Neutral Matchup) The 49er offense is broken. The passing game stinks, the running game is in neutral and their high-priced "star" is being supplanted by Maurice Hicks (13/46/1 last week vs. Barlow's 9/20/0 rushing and 3/0/0 receiving). The team is 31st in the league averaging 3.5 yards per carry – nothing is working for San Francisco right now. Even Miami can beat them (and did). This team managed 19/58/0 vs. St. Louis the last time they faced off, back in week 4. 28/231/1 was the whopping total of rushing allowed by the Rams last week to Green Bay's cadre (minus the team's most talented back, by the way) – St. Louis has allowed an average of 176 rushing yards per game over the last 4 weeks, with .5 TDs given up per contest. They are 31st in the NFL this season, surrendering 145.9 rushing yards per contest, with 10 scores allowed to date. This is not a strong defensive front, folks. C Jeremy Newberry (back/knee) is out for the 49ers as of Wednesday. The Rams' unit reports no new injuries of note This game is to be played in the Edward Jones Dome – weather won't be an issue. The 49ers have a great opportunity here, but their offense is so bad we don't know if it will do them any good. On balance, we call it a neutral matchup.
Seattle's Shaun Alexander vs. The Dallas Defense (Neutral Matchup) Shaun Alexander had been the one reliable player on the Seattle offense – until last Sunday, when the Bills humiliated Seattle 38-9. Alexander managed 13/39/0 that day. The Seattle offense has been slowly imploding as the season goes along – has the malaise infected Alexander now too? We don't think so (the Bills have the 4th ranked rush defense in the land, after all, and bad games happen to every player), but the debacle wasn't a pretty thing to watch last week. Over the past 3 weeks, Alexander has amassed 64/311/1 rushing with 1/3/0 receiving, so it's a little soon to push the panic button. He's still the focus of this offense (Matt Hasselbeck isn't anymore, that's for sure). Dallas crushed the Chicago corps of backs last week, holding them to 20/49/0 on the day – the team has averaged 93 rushing yards and 1 TD allowed per game over the last 4 weeks. That's better than their 14th-ranking (allowing an average of 113.5 rushing yards per game this year) among all NFL defenses would lead you to believe – there may be some life left in this team yet. Reserve RB Kerry Carter has a rib injury (questionable), while T Walter Jones is probable with a sore thumb. Dallas' unit is in good shape coming into this game. The forecast for Qwest Field calls for a high of 45F with a low of 36F and an 80% chance of rain. If the rain pours down at game time, field conditions could deteriorate and both footing and ball-handling would become much more treacherous. Dallas has a defense that is heading in the right direction to end the season, while the Seahawks have an elite RB playing on an offense going south. That sounds like a neutral matchup to us.
Miami's Travis Minor/Sammy Morris vs. The Buffalo Defense (Tough Matchup) Sammy Morris couldn't get his ribs healed enough to play last week, so Travis Minor carried the load for the Dolphins – he managed 22/47/0 rushing and 2/15/0 receiving in his role as lead running back last week. Back in week 6, Sammy Morris did well vs. the Bills, with 18/91/0 rushing and 2/28/0 receiving. There isn't a lot of power on this squad, but they do keep fighting hard each week. Buffalo's D stuffed the Seahawks last week, holding Shaun Alexander to13/39/0 rushing (17/55/0 as a team). They do the same thing regularly, with a season average of only 96.8 rushing yards allowed per game (3rd ranked: also, a mere 3 rushing scores allowed in 11 games). Over the past 4 weeks, they average 97 rushing yards and 0 TDs given up per contest. This is one of the toughest all-around defensive fronts in the league, folks (along with #1 Pittsburgh). Morris is listed as doubtful this week. G Jeno James is questionable (knee). RBs Rob Konrad (migraine) and Travis Minor (concussion) are probable to play, as is G Taylor Whitley (foot). Buffalo's defensive front is in good shape. The forecast for ProPlayer Stadium in Miami calls for a high of 82F and a low of 67F with a 10% chance of rain – this is why people live in South Florida despite hurricane season. The Bills are clearly the superior unit in this matchup, but Morris managed to do well against them earlier in the year. We think the Dolphins will have a hard time repeating that feat, though.
Baltimore's Chester Taylor vs. The Cincinnati Defense (Tough Matchup) Chester Taylor is not Jamal Lewis – he did an adequate job rushing the ball – 16/61/0 – with 5/24/0 receiving, but he couldn't carry the team while Kyle Boller struggled to throw the ball effectively. The last time he faced the Cincinnati defense, Taylor saw part time duty with 8/27/0 rushing and 1/-7/0 receiving – he didn't find much room to maneuver. Cincinnati allowed 17/76/1 to the Browns on the ground last week in the course of their 58-48 shootout with the Browns. They have been pretty stout in this phase of the game recently, with an average of 106 rushing yards and .3 rushing TDs allowed per game over the past 4 weeks. They are much better right now than their 30th ranking (allowing 137.4 rushing yards per game this season) would indicate. The Ravens list Lewis as doubtful to play this week – he's not expected back yet. T Orlando Brown has a bum knee (questionable) that held him out of last week's game. Cincinnati DT Matthias Askew (knee, out) and DE Carl Powell (knee, questionable) both missed last week's game. The forecast for M&T Bank Stadium calls for a high of 53F and a low of 39F with a 20% chance for rain – that's great football weather in our book. Taylor didn't have much luck last week, and he was less-than-impressive against Cincinnati last time the teams faced off. He'll have his work cut out for him against this improving defense.
Denver's Rueben Droughns vs. The San Diego Defense (Tough Matchup) Considering that Oakland and Kansas City are essentially eliminated from contention in the AFC West, expect a playoff level of intensity between these division rivals in this rematch of their week 3 game. San Diego (8-3) has a slim margin over Denver (7-4), but dropped the first decision 23-13 to the Broncos at Mile High Stadium. Back in week 3, the Broncos were still searching for their starter, and only managed 21/37/0 rushing as a team vs. San Diego. Since then, the Chargers have remained hard to run on, with a season average of 79.1 -rushing yards allowed per game to date – which is second in the NFL – (12 rushing scores surrendered, though). Over the past 4 weeks they are right on pace, giving up an average of 80 rushing yards per game (1.3 TDs per game). The Chiefs smashed the ball into the end-zone 3 times last week (20/110/3) – the Chargers are back on their heels as bit. However, Reuben Droughns has come into his own as the Bronco's starter since week 3 – he has 202/946/3 rushing and 24/162/1 receiving to his credit this season – and he's been running well in the past 3 weeks, putting up 56/268/2 rushing and 3/20/0 receiving during that span. We'd be shocked to see the Broncos only gain 37 yards this time around. The Chargers' defensive front is in good health (DT Eric Downing has a sore knee, probable; LB Randall Godfrey has a sore knee, probable; and Steve Foley's neck is sore, probable), as are the Broncos (Droughns has a sore hand, probable) – injuries aren't a huge factor in this matchup. The forecast for Qualcomm Stadium calls for a high of 55F with a low of 42F with a 30% chance of rain. If the rain pours down at game-time, footing and ball-handling could become issues in this phase of the contest. Droughns should have to fight hard for his yards against the tough Chargers, but he'll improve on the team's first mark from week 3.
Houston's Domanick Davis vs. The New York Jets' Defense (Tough Matchup) Domanick Davis has come on strong in the second half of the season, and has racked up 68/292/3 rushing and 20/147/1 over the last 3 weeks – that works out to a yards-per-carry average of 4.3 over that span of time, significantly better than the team's season average of 3.7 (tied for 24th in the NFL). Last week, he was a key part of the Texan's comeback victory, with 16/129/1 rushing and 7/52/0 receiving. He's the 2nd best fantasy RB over the past 3 weeks in fantasy points per game – start him if you've got him. The Jets crushed the Cardinals' backups last week as Emmitt Smith was knocked out with an injury early in the game. The team managed a mere 24/71/0 on the day, with the leading player gaining 10/25/0. The Jets are tied for 6th in the NFL this season, allowing only 101.3 rushing yards per game to date, with just 5 TDs surrendered to date They have averaged just that over the last 4 weeks, 101 rushing yards allowed per game, with .3 TDs given up per outing. They are tough. RB Tony Hollings is listed as doubtful thanks to his aggravated hamstring injury. LB Victor Hobson (ankle) is questionable for New York, while fellow LB Jason Glenn is probable to return from the forearm injury that has sidelined him many weeks. The forecast for Giants' Stadium calls for a high of 54F with a low of 40F and a 20% chance for rain. A nice day is around the corner in New Jersey, it appears. Davis has momentum coming into this game, but the Jets are no pushovers – Davis faces a hard fight in New York's home stadium.
New York Jets' Curtis Martin vs. The Houston Defense (Tough Matchup) Curtis Martin nearly hit the century mark against the Cardinals last week, with 24/99/0 to his credit. He has been fairly strong over the last 3 weeks, with 69/306/2 rushing and 2/5/0 receiving to his credit – LaMont Jordan is starting to see some extensive playing time though (12/43/0 rushing with 1/3/0 receiving last week; 33/131/0 rushing and 3/39/0 receiving over the last 3 weeks) which has knocked Martin out of the ranks of elite fantasy backs (16th in fantasy points per game over that 3 week span). The Jets' OL is doing a great job – the team averages 4.5 yards per carry this season (tied for 7th in the NFL). The Texans denied the Titans' backs the end-zone last week (25/134/0), but you couldn't really say they stuffed them (a 5.4 yards-per-carry average is not indicative of a great defensive effort in this phase of the game). In fact, Houston has only allowed 3 rushing scores all season long (113.3 rushing yards per game on average, 13th in the NFL) – they are right on that pace over the last 4 weeks with an average of 112 rushing yards allowed per game and 0 TDs per contest. It's tough to punch the ball into the end-zone against this defensive front (they have also allowed a league-leading 27 passing scores, so teams don't need to run the ball into the end-zone – but that doesn't matter from the fantasy perspective). The Jets' line and backs are in decent shape, while the Texans list LB Jay Foreman as questionable (shoulder) – he missed their last game. The forecast for Giants' Stadium calls for a high of 54F with a low of 40F and a 20% chance for rain. A nice day is around the corner in New Jersey, it appears. Curtis Martin will have a tough time making a big fantasy splash against the Texans.
New York's Tiki Barber vs. The Washington Defense (Tough Matchup) Tiki Barber is still a premier pro running back, but he is suffering along with Eli Manning's growing pains as his lack of TDs over the past 3 weeks shows – 61/325/1 rushing and 9/85/0 receiving make him fantasy starter in most leagues (14th-best fantasy back in points per game over that span) – but he's not the one-man wrecking crew that he used to be early in the season. 19/110/0 rushing and 1/9/0 receiving was his tally after playing the Eagles last week – that's about what you can expect until Manning gets more comfortable under center. Back in week 2, Barber could only scrape up 18/42/0 rushing and 4/37/0 receiving against the Redskins defense. Pittsburgh needed 38 carries to gain 107 yards vs. the Redskins last week (2.8 yards per carry) – they did manage to punch in 1 TD too. Washing ranks 3rd in the NFL this season, allowing an average of 91.3 rushing yards per game, with only 6 scores allowed in this phase to date. Over the last 4 weeks, they are giving up 99 rushing yards per game, and .5 TDs a week. They are a hard-nosed bunch of defenders, that is for certain. LB Lavar Arrington is out (knee); DE Phillip Daniels is questionable due to his groin injury; DTs Jermaine Haley (knee) and Cornelius Griffin (hip) are probable to play, as is DE Demetric Evans. The Giants list C Shaun O'Hara as questionable (ankle), while Barber is probable (calf/knee laceration). Injuries have taken a toll on both squads this year. The forecast for FedEx Field calls for a high of 53F and a low of 35F with a 20% chance for rain. A nice, crisp autumn day is on tap for this game, it appears. He's still a top back, but this will be a tough game for Barber and company.
Pittsburgh's Duce Staley/Jerome Bettis vs. The Jacksonville Defense (Tough Matchup) Duce Staley is set to return to the lineup now, after Jerome Bettis powered the team to 4 victories on the strength of his legs. 151/707/1 rushing with 4/25/0 receiving is the book on Staley in 2004 – Bettis has 174/610/11 and 3/30/0 receiving in his time. Staley grinds out the yardage, and Bettis sticks them in the end-zone, essentially. 30/112/1 was the total that the Vikings managed against the Jags last week. Jacksonville has averaged 99 rushing yards allowed and .7 TDs per week over the last 4 weeks – they are at 106 per game this season, with only 6 rushing scores surrendered to date. They are one of the top ten defensive fronts in the NFL. DE Rob Meier is out due to an ankle injury suffered last week. DTs Derrick Ransom (shoulder) and Marcus Stroud (knee) are probable for the game. Pittsburgh lists RB Verron Haynes (knee, questionable) and Bettis (knee) and Staley (hamstring) – both the latter are probable to play. C Jeff Hartings has a sore knee (probable). The forecast for Alltel Stadium calls for a high of 71F and a low of 62F with a 40% chance for rain. If the rain comes down thickly at game-time, footing and ball-handling could become issues. This will be a tough game for Staley and Bettis.
Jacksonville's Fred Taylor vs. The Pittsburgh Defense (Tough Matchup) Fred Taylor has 66/394/0 rushing over the past 3 weeks, with 7/54/0 – he's great between the 20's, where space is available for him to utilize his slashing/cutting/accelerating skills. 190/904/1 on the season – that 1 TD rushing is what has his fantasy owners depressed. Pittsburgh has the best defensive front in the NFL, allowing an average of 75.4 rushing yards per game, with 4 TDs given up in 11 games. They limited Clinton Portis to 6/17/0 last week (14/51/0 for the 'Skins as a team) and have averaged 51 rushing yards allowed ( with 0 scores surrendered) over the last 4 weeks. The Steel Curtain is back, big time. LB Kendrell Bell and DE Brett Keisel are out of the game as of Wednesday (groin and hamstring injuries, respectively). LB James Harrison is probable to play (shoulder injury). Jacksonville's unit is ready to roll. The forecast for Alltel Stadium calls for a high of 71F and a low of 62F with a 40% chance for rain. If the rain comes down thickly at game-time, footing and ball-handling could become issues. Taylor makes his fantasy points by gaining yardage – something he'll have a tough time doing against the Steelers.
Cleveland's William Green/Lee Suggs? vs. The New England Defense (Bad Matchup) Suggs is listed as questionable to play as of mid-week, and he missed Wednesday's practice – but here's the thing. Neither of these guys may be a good play this week – a rookie QB with limited experience under center (during pre-season) may be starting at QB for the Browns this week – against the world champions who just destroyed Baltimore 24-3 last week. We'd like you to approach your Browns with extreme caution this week, after exploring the other options on your roster. William Green did manage 15/75/1 rushing (2/15/0 receiving) last week in a 48-58 shootout vs. Cincinnati – but we don't expect to see the Browns come anywhere near 48 points this week. Starting a rookie QB against Bill Belichick and Romeo Crennel's defensive schemes – not something we'd look forward to. Ask Kyle Boller (15/35 for 93 yards, 0 TDs and 1 interception) how easy it is to deal with the Patriots. They've allowed 10 whole passing scores all year. A whopping total of 5 rushing scores to date. The Patriots average 68 rushing yards allowed per game over the past 4 weeks, with 0 rushing scores allowed – do you think they'll stuff the Browns' backs all day long and dare Luke McCown to throw at Rodney Harrison and company? LBs Roman Phifer (calf) and Mike Vrabel (foot) are questionable to play for the Patriots. Other than Suggs, the Browns have no new injuries to report. The forecast for Cleveland Browns Stadium calls for a high of 52F and a low of 43F with a 20% chance for rain. That's great December weather in that part of the world. This will not be a good day to be a Browns' back.
Site Map | Contact Us  | Login / Signup

©Copyright Footballguys.com 2003, All rights reserved.