Rushing Matchups - Week 16
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Posted 12/23 by Mark Wimer and Joe Bryant, Exclusive to Footballguys.com
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Hi Folks,
Here's our look at the Rushing Matchups for this week.
PLEASE NOTE: This does NOT replace the Cheatsheet ranking. The Cheatsheet rankings
are the final say on where we see a player for that week. The Matchup Breakdowns
are simply one more tool in the box when it comes to helping choose your lineup.
Also note, just because a player has a "bad" matchup, it does NOT mean
he's not a starter in your league. If LaDainian Tomlinson is playing the toughest
rush defense in the league, that just means he's got a tough matchup that week.
He's also your starter. In the same way, if the worst RB on your roster has a
"great" matchup, that doesn't necessarily mean you start him, it just
means he'll likely fare better this week than he normally would.
Bottom line, the cheatsheets are the final word.
Let's jump to it.
Joe
Quick Note: Mark Wimer and I do these matchups. My partner, David Dodds handles
the cheatsheets. On a normal week, we have more time to reconcile these matchups
to the cheatsheets and work out players where we don't exactly see eye to eye.
By getting our cheatsheets our early this week, we didn't have that opportunity
so if you see some contradictions, please accept that as three guys with slightly
different opinions. Thanks.
Quick Index
Great Matchups
Denver's Tatum Bell/Reuben Droughns vs. The Tennessee Defense
Kansas City's Larry Johnson/Derrick Blaylock vs. The Oakland Defense
Arizona's Emmitt Smith and company vs. The Seattle Defense
Atlanta's Warrick Dunn/Michael Vick vs. The New Orleans Defense
Cincinnati's Rudi Johnson vs. The New York Giants' Defense
Good Matchups
Green Bay's Ahman Green vs. The Minnesota Defense
Minnesota's Michael Bennett/Moe Williams/Onterrio Smith vs. The Green Bay Defense
New Orleans' Deuce McAllister vs. The Atlanta Defense
Detroit's Kevin Jones vs. The Chicago Defense
Miami's Sammy Morris/Travis Minor vs. The Cleveland Defense
San Diego's LaDainian Tomlinson vs. The Indianapolis Defense
Washington's Clinton Portis vs. The Dallas Defense
Philadelphia's Brian Westbrook/Dorsey Levens vs. The St. Louis Defense
Neutral Matchups
Tennessee's Antowain Smith vs. The Denver Defense
Seattle's Shaun Alexander vs. The Arizona Defense
Carolina's Nick Goings vs. The Tampa Bay Defense
Tampa Bay's Michael Pittman vs. The Carolina Defense
Cleveland's Lee Suggs vs. The Miami Defense
Houston's Domanick Davis vs. The Jacksonville Defense
New England's Corey Dillon vs. The New York Jets' Defense
New York Jets' Curtis Martin vs. The New England Defense
Indianapolis' Edgerrin James vs. The San Diego Defense
New York Giants' Tiki Barber vs. The Cincinnati Defense
Tough Matchups
Baltimore's Jamal Lewis/Chester Taylor vs. The Pittsburgh Defense
Pittsburgh's Jerome Bettis/Duce Staley? vs. The Baltimore Defense
Oakland's RBBC vs. The Kansas City Defense
Buffalo's Willis McGahee/Shaud Williams vs. The San Francisco Defense
Chicago's Thomas Jones vs. The Detroit Defense
Jacksonville's Fred Taylor vs. The Houston Defense
Dallas' Julius Jones vs. The Washington Defense
St. Louis' Marshall Faulk/Steven Jackson? vs. The Philadelphia Defense
Bad Matchups
San Francisco's Kevan Barlow/Maurice Hicks vs. The Buffalo Defense
Denver's Tatum Bell/Reuben Droughns vs.
The Tennessee Defense (Great Matchup)
Tatum Bell fought through the pain of his separated shoulder last week, and
managed a decent fantasy outing with 9/50/0 rushing and 1/58/0 receiving, but
he allowed the ball to be punched out of his grasp at the end of his long catch,
which cost the Broncos (and Bell's fantasy owners) a TD. Reuben Droughns is
playing second fiddle at this point in production although he may start this
week. Droughns posted 4/27/0 rushing and 2/14/0 receiving last week (Garrison
Hearst scored in the game, with 5/26/1 rushing and 1/15/0 receiving) - the Broncos
are throwing a lot of players into the mix right now. If Bell can't go this
week, it's likely that Hearst and Droughns will split time.
Tennessee's secondary and linebacking corps has been ripped apart by injuries
this season - they aren't slowing people down in either phase of the game, averaging
5.1 TDs allowed per game (3.3 passing, 1.8 rushing) over the past 4 weeks. They
coughed up an average of 126 rushing yards per game during that span, including
last week's total of 22/57/0 to the Raider's anemic RBBC (the team threw 37
passes and was very successful in that phase of the game - teams don't need
to run at Tennessee given the problems in the secondary). The situation is ugly
on the defensive side of the Titan's ball-club.
The Broncos list Bell as probable to play, and also report G Dan Neil as questionable
due to his sore groin. RB Kyle Johnson is doubtful (ankle); G Cooper Carlisle
(ankle, questionable) and RB Reuben Droughns (neck/knee) is listed as probable.
Tennessee's encyclopedia of injuries includes: LB Rocky Boiman (calf); DE Carlos
Hall (knee/finger); DT Albert Haynesworth (elbow); and LB Cody Spencer (abdomen)
- all are questionable.
This game will go down in the Coliseum, where temperatures will range from
28F for a high to 11F for the low, with a 0% chance of precipitation. Under
those conditions, the football will be hard and slick, making ball-handling
more difficult than usual.
Tennessee can't even slow their opponents down at this point in the season
- they are ineffective in this phase of the game.
Kansas City's Larry Johnson/Derrick Blaylock
vs. The Oakland Defense (Great Matchup)
Larry Johnson enjoyed on of his strongest appearances vs. Oakland back in week
13, with 20/118/1 rushing and 3/56/1 receiving - since then, he's been really
hot, with 57/373/5 rushing and 5/75/1 receiving over the past 3 weeks - the
guy is on a roll. There is no reason to expect him to slow down vs. the Raiders
in week 16, playing at home in front of the red-and-gold clad partisans ringing
Arrowhead Stadium. Derrick Blaylock missed last week due to a knee injury -
he's listed as this week.
Oakland's rush D was adequate vs. The limping Titans, allowing 19/61/1 to Tennessee
(the Raiders coughed up 492 passing yards and 4 TDs in the other phase of the
game, so it's not like the Titans ran at them much, though). Oakland averages
141 rushing yards allowed per game over the past 4 weeks (1.8 TDs per contest
during that span in this phase), and they are tied for the 2nd-most rushing
scores allowed this season, at 18. There aren't many good things to say about
the Raiders' defensive front, except to say that DT Warren Sapp gets a goodly
amount of money for not much in the way of production on the field.
The Raiders list DE Tyler Brayton (neck, doubtful); LB Sam Williams (ankle,
doubtful) and LB DeLawrence Grant (knee, questionable). Blaylock and C Chris
Bober (toe) are questionable to play this week; RB Omar Easy (knee) and T Willie
Roaf (ankle) are probable to play.
This game is to be played at Arrowhead Stadium - the forecast calls for a high
of 22F and a low of 11F with a 0% chance for precipitation. At this time of
year, swirling winds are almost always a factor in this venue - and the football
will be hard and slick in subfreezing temperatures. Conditions will be likely
to impact on both of the quarterback's accuracy on Saturday. At this time of
year, teams often prefer to utilize the ground game.
Look for Johnson to slash up the Raiders' defensive front like a hot knife
through butter.
Arizona's Emmitt Smith and company vs. The
Seattle Defense (Great Matchup)
26/106/1 rushing with 4/30/0 receiving was Emmitt Smith's tally vs. The Seahawks
back in week 7 - that total represents his second-best yardage sum this season
(it's fair to say he had a strong performance against Seattle last time around
the block). Since then, Smith has injured his toe, which has limited his ability
to play in recent weeks - he has 37/124/1 rushing and 3/21/0 receiving in 2
appearances over the past 3 games, including 19/71/0 rushing and 2/24/0 receiving
vs. St. Louis last week. FB Obafemi Ayanbadejo has been chipping in lately (2/2/0
rushing with 4/45/0 receiving last week), as has backup RB Josh Scobey (9/23/0
rushing and 3/52/0 receiving last week). Josh McCown hoarded the rushing TDs
last week, with 9/33/2 to his credit. The Arizona rushing attack is becoming
more of a team affair in recent weeks.
41/229/2 - the Seattle defensive front got their teeth kicked in by the Jets
last week. They have coughed up an average of 172 rushing yards and 2.5 rushing
TDs per game over the past 4 weeks, and are tied for third-most rushing scores
surrendered this year with 17 given away. The Seahawks are amongst the worst
rush defenses in the NFL at this point in the season.
Seattle lists DE Grant Wistrom as this week (knee), and they have also been
without DTs Rocky Bernard (knee, questionable) and Marcus Tubbs (ankle, out)
in recent weeks. LB Chad Brown injured his foot last week in his first game
back from knee surgery (questionable), and Tracy White is still struggling with
his hamstring (doubtful). The Seahawks' defensive front is depleted by injuries
at this point in the season. Arizona lists Smith as probable to play despite
the injured toe. T Leonard Davis (knee, probable) is also listed.
The forecast for Qwest Field calls for a high of 50F and a low of 44F with
a 30% chance for precipitation.
Arizona enjoyed good success against the Seahawks last time around the block,
and they've gotten worse since - advantage, Arizona.
Atlanta's Warrick Dunn/Michael Vick vs.
The New Orleans Defense (Great Matchup)
The last time these teams faced off, T.J. Duckett was still in the mix (12/58/0)
on a day that the Falcon's trio split the work 3 ways (11/59/0 for Dunn, 10/69/1
for Vick). 33/186/1 was the corporate total. Atlanta has sewn up the 2nd seed
in the NFC, and the word at midweek is that the team is seriously considering
resting Michael Vick this week, as they have nothing to gain or lose until the
playoffs roll around. If Vick ends up on the bench, and given T. J. Duckett's
return from knee surgery, this could be a huge week to own the services of Warrick
Dunn. If all the team's carries go through Dunn's hands (22/922/8 rushing and
20/187/0 receiving in a committee setting this season), he could be a huge factor
in your team's push for the fantasy championship. Keep an eye on the news out
of Atlanta as the weekend approaches as Duckett may wind up seeing action.
The Saints gave up 34/169/0 to the Buccaneers last week - they are the 32nd
ranked rush defense in the NFL this season, averaging 151 rushing yards allowed
per game (with 15 scores surrendered to date), so the high yardage total came
as no surprise. Over the past 4 weeks, the team is right on pace, giving up
152 rushing yards and .8 rushing scores per contest on average. They don't play
solid rush defense down in the Bayou, folks.
New Orleans has been deprived of some key linebackers in recent weeks, with
Sedrick Hodge (right MCL strain, questionable) and Orlando Ruff (right ankle,
questionable) standing on the sidelines due to injury. Atlanta lists Duckett
as questionable, but he's not expected to play at all.
This game is to be played in the Superdome - weather won't be an issue.
This is a great matchup for whatever mix of rushers the Falcons choose to throw
at New Orleans.
Cincinnati's Rudi Johnson vs. The New York
Giants' Defense (Great Matchup)
Rudi Johnson did well against the 4th-ranked Bills rush defense last week,
gaining 23/130/1 rushing during the game. That's 30+ yards more than the Bills
usually give up in any one game - the Bengals' ground game is churning at top
speed right now. With 66/275/1 rushing and 3/38/0 receiving over the last 3
weeks, Johnson ranks as the 22nd fantasy RB in the land in fantasy points per
game during that span.
The Giants rush defense has been gutted by injuries along the defensive line
- they allowed 39/160/1 to Pittsburgh last week; average 173 rushing yards and
1.0 rushing scores allowed per game over the past 4 weeks; and the Giants have
slid to 29th in the NFL vs. The rush allowing an average of 139.1 rushing yards
per game this season (with 11 scores given up to date). They aren't much of
a defensive front heading into the final 120 minutes of regular-season action.
The Giants have DTs Norman Hand (groin, out) and Kenderick Allen (hamstring,
doubtful) on their initial report. The Bengals list RB Chris Perry (abdomen,
doubtful); and T Willie Anderson (knee, probable).
The forecast for Paul Brown Stadium calls for a high of 16F and a low of 10F
with a 0% chance for precipitation. In the subfreezing temperatures, the football
will be hard and slick - ball-handling is likely to be more difficult than usual.
Look for Johnson to enjoy a solid game vs. The limping Giants' defense.
San Diego's LaDainian Tomlinson vs. The
Indianapolis Defense (Good Matchup)
Two divisional champions face off in this game, and playoff positioning is
suddenly in play thanks to the New England loss in Miami - this will be a hard-fought
game. LaDainian Tomlinson is one of the league's elite backs, with 318/1254/16
rushing and 48/346/0 receiving to date - he's racked up 81/355/5 rushing and
10/31/0 receiving over the past 3 weeks, including 26/111/2 rushing vs. The
Browns last week - he's a must start every week (as if we needed to tell you
that).
Indianapolis was punctured by the Ravens for 29/160/0 last week - the Colts
average 148 rushing yards allowed per game over the past 4 weeks, but their
spines get stiff in the redzone (only .3 TDs surrendered per game during that
span in this phase of the game). The Colts have never been truly solid at rush
D this season, averaging 123.6 rushing yards allowed per game (21st in the NFL)
this year.
MLB Rob Morris was concussed last week, and sat out the balance of the game
(probable). The Colts also list DE Raheem Brock (knee, probable); LB Cato June
(ankle, probable) and DT Josh Williams (shoulder, probable). San Diego is in
good shape in this phase of the game, although RB Jesse Chatman has a sore toe
(probable).
This game is to be played inside the air-conditioned RCA Dome - weather won't
be a factor.
Tomlinson is an elite back; the Colts field a subpar rush defense. Advantage,
San Diego.
New Orleans' Deuce McAllister vs. The Atlanta
Defense (Good Matchup)
Deuce McAllister gained 23/100/0 rushing and 4/10/0 receiving vs. Atlanta back
in week 12. New Orleans continues to have a prayer to make the postseason, so
look for McAllister to be ready to rock and roll this week against the coasting
Falcons - he comes into the matchup off a 25/89/0 rushing and 1/9/0 receiving
performance vs. Tampa Bay. McAllister has 62/194/2 rushing and 6/47/0 receiving
to his credit over the past 3 weeks (24th fantasy RB in the land) - he hasn't
been great, but he hasn't been awful recently, either.
25/61/1 told the Panthers' tale in this phase of the game last week - Atlanta
is allowing an average of 102.7 rushing yards per game - however, they are tied
for 3rd-most rushing scores surrendered this season, with 17. Over the past
4 weeks, they averaged 116 rushing yards allowed per contest, with 1.3 rushing
scores given up per game. The Falcons do not scare their opponents in this phase
of the game.
New Orleans has some injury issues along the OL, with RG Montrae Holland nursing
a torn plantar fascia in his foot (questionable). Wayne Gandy injured a knee
last week (questionable). Atlanta's DT Ed Jasper missed the game last week due
to a hand injury (questionable).
This game is to be played in the Superdome - weather won't be an issue.
McAllister is an explosive running back, while the Falcons are usually unimpressive
in this phase of the game - advantage, New Orleans.
Green Bay's Ahman Green vs. The Minnesota
Defense (Good Matchup)
Ahman Green enjoyed a strong outing vs. Minnesota's defense back in week 10,
racking up 21/145/0 rushing and 2/7/0 receiving during the game. Lately, though,
the teams' defensive struggles combined with Brett Favre's problems with turnovers
have conspired to take the Packers out of their run-oriented game plans, which
have limited Green's fantasy potential significantly - over the last 3 weeks,
he's the 38th ranked fantasy RB in the land with 51/207/0 rushing and 10/48/0
receiving to his credit. He has racked up 236/1086/6 rushing and 35/226/1 receiving
to date this season - the low number of TDs means that Green is out of the top
10 among all fantasy RBs to date (14th in fantasy points per game).
Minnesota allowed 25/113/1 to the Lions' backs last week, and they average
137 rushing yards and .3 TDs per game given up over the last 4 weeks. They are
on the wrong side of their season average of 127.6 rushing yards allowed per
game (23rd in the NFL) as the team attempts to make a playoff run. This is a
subpar unit at best.
The Packers list T Kevin Barry (quadriceps, questionable) and G Marco Rivera
(back, probable). Minnesota's unit has no complaints to speak of at this point.
This game is to be played in the Metrodome - weather won't be a factor.
Green has had good luck against the Vikings in the past, and their defense
hasn't improved since the last time he played against Minnesota - Advantage,
Green Bay.
Minnesota's Michael Bennett/Moe Williams/Onterrio
Smith vs. The Green Bay Defense (Good Matchup)
Minnesota's backs struggled to move the ball against Green Bay in the first
showdown (week 10) - the team totaled 16/71/0, with Bennett and Smith both gaining
21 yards on 5 carries (tied for the team lead). Moe Williams actually enjoyed
the most productive fantasy outing that week, with 1/-3/0 rushing but 4/57/1
receiving during the game. Even though the Vikings enjoy a gaudy 4.8 yards per
carry average this season (2nd in the NFL), the best fantasy RB on the team
over the past 3 weeks, Onterrio Smith, ranks 36th among all fantasy RBs in fantasy
points per game - the ball is being spread around a lot right now. Michael Bennett
saw the most carries (13/51/0) and receptions (3/51/0) among the backs last
week, but 10 other rushes and 3 receptions were "farmed out".
The Packers haven't been playing stout rush defense recently, allowing an average
of 133 rushing yards and .8 TDs per game over the past 4 weeks. The team averages
116.9 rushing yards allowed per game this season (17th in the NFL) - Green Bay's
defense is heading in the wrong direction in this phase of the game. Last week,
Fred Taylor ripped them for 22/165/1, and the Jags totaled 36/197/2 vs. The
Packers - the defensive front is back on it's heels right now.
LB Na'il Diggs missed last week's game due to his back injury/bruised kidneys
(probable) - and the Packers also list DT James Lee (knee, out); DE Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila
(neck, probable); and DT Grady Jackson (knee, probable). The Vikings have been
doing without C Matt Birk (abdomen, probable) in recent weeks. Onterrio Smith
(illness, probable) and T Bryant McKinnie (back, probable) are also listed on
Wednesday.
This game is to be played in the Metrodome - weather won't be a factor.
Minnesota as a team should do well rushing the ball against the Packers - however,
the question of who will see the most touches, TDs and fantasy points makes
starting a Viking back a dicey proposition at best.
Detroit's Kevin Jones vs. The Chicago Defense
(Good Matchup)
Keeping up with the Joneses is something that the defenses on both teams will
try to do this week - Kevin Jones didn't see action vs. Chicago the first time
around the block, back in week 1, so it remains to be seen how he'll handle
these division rivals. Over the past 3 weeks, Jones has 78/431/3 rushing and
8/57/0 receiving to his credit, to rank 3rd among all fantasy RBs during that
span of time - he comes into this game off a 19/79/1 rushing and 4/35/0 receiving
performance vs. The Vikings last week. Jones is on a roll.
Houston managed 34/106/1 against the Bears last week, slightly less than the
124 rushing yards Chicago has surrendered on average over the last 4 weeks (.8
TDs allowed per game during that span). The Bears are in the bottom tier of
NFL rush defenses this season, giving up an average of 130.9 rushing yards per
game (8 TDs to date). The team is will be without MLB Brian Urlacher who was
placed on IR.
Aside from Urlacher, the Bears list DE Adewale Ogunleye (leg, questionable).
The Lions have no new injuries to report this week.
This game is to be played in Ford Field - weather won't be an issue in the
air-conditioned dome.
Kevin Jones has found his "A" game in the second half of the season,
while the Bears flounder around at the bottom of the NFL in this phase of the
game. Advantage, Detroit.
Miami's Sammy Morris/Travis Minor vs. The
Cleveland Defense (Good Matchup)
Sammy Morris and Travis Minor didn't pile up impressive yardage totals last
week (9/27 and 8/27, respectively), but they made their limited number of carries
count, with 2 TDs going to Morris and 1 to Minor in the defeat of division-rival
New England. Neither of these guys has scored very often this season (Morris
has 5 rushing scores this year, Minor has 3), but they were successful last
week, at least.
50/174/2 was the Charger's total on the ground when they were through blanking
the Browns 21-0 last week. Cleveland averages 217 rushing yards and 2.5 TDs
given up per game over the past 4 weeks, and they are dead-last in the NFL surrendering
21 rushing scores to date. They are the NFL's doormat at this point in the year.
Miami lists C Seth McKinney (knee, questionable) and T John St. Clair (knee,
probable). DE Kenard Lang (knee, questionable) and DT Orpheus Roye (ankle, probable)
are on the Browns' Wednesday injury report.
The forecast for ProPlayer Stadium calls for a high of 73F with a low of 47F
and a 40% chance for rain. If the moisture comes down hard at game time, the
field could get slick and ball-handling could become an issue.
If Morris and Minor could stuff the ball into the endzone vs. The Patriots,
there's no reason they won't be able to vs. The super-soft Browns. If the Dolphins
can find their way to the redzone, one or both of these guys will probably find
pay-dirt.
Washington's Clinton Portis vs. The Dallas
Defense (Good Matchup)
Clinton Portis managed 23/94/0 rushing and 3/37/0 receiving during the week
3 game between these teams. Over the last 3 weeks, the Redskins' offense has
started to get in synch, and Portis has enjoyed a fine run of games, with 89/338/3
rushing and 10/56/1 receiving to his credit (6th best fantasy RB in the league
during that span). Last week, he slapped down 35/110/0 rushing and 3/20/0 receiving
vs. The 49ers.
Dallas' defense gave up 28/120/1 to the Eagle's stable last week. They've averaged
1.3 rushing TDs given up per game over the last 4 weeks (96 rushing yards per
game surrendered during that span). Dallas has given up 13 rushing scores in
14 games this year, while averaging 113 rushing yards allowed per game (12th
in the NFL). The Cowboys are mediocre at defending vs. The run this season.
Dallas comes into the game listing LB Al Singleton (groin, out). Washington's
report includes T Chris Samuels (ankle, probable).
The forecast for Texas Stadium calls for a high of 53F and a low of 36F with
a 0% chance for rain.
Portis has enjoyed good success in recent weeks - Dallas has been giving up
points in this phase with regularity. Advantage, Washington.
Philadelphia's Brian Westbrook/Dorsey Levens
vs. The St. Louis Defense (Good Matchup)
Brian Westbrook and Dorsey Levens split the workload on the ground last week
- Westbrook had 12/48/0 rushing (with 8/78/0 receiving) while Levens contributed
12/43/1 rushing and 1/17/0 receiving to the team effort. 22/106/2 rushing and
4/44/0 receiving puts Levens at 34th among all fantasy RBs over the last 3 weeks,
while Westbrook was the 7th best fantasy RB during that span, with 36/144/0
rushing and 25/293/3 receiving. The Eagles have developed a potent 1-2 punch
at the RB position in the second half of the season. With Terrell Owens sidelined
for the foreseeable future, the Eagles may need to rely on this tandem more
than ever.
St. Louis melted down vs. The Cardinals last week, allowing 40/131/2 to Arizona
en route to a 31-7 defeat. They've been soft in this phase of the game all year
long, ranking 28th in the NFL averaging 137 rushing yards given up per game.
Over the past 4 weeks, they are giving up yards at the same pace, surrendering
136 rushing yards and 1.0 rushing scores per game on average. The Rams are weak
vs. The run this year.
The Eagles list G Jermane Mayberry (triceps, doubtful) and C Hank Fraley (ankle,
probable) as well as RB Reno Mahe (ankle, probable). The Rams have no new injuries
to report.
This game is to be played in the Edward Jones Dome - weather won't be an issue
indoors.
The Rams do not field a solid rush D, while the Eagles have a powerful 1-2
combination to bring to the brawl - advantage, Philadelphia.
Houston's Domanick Davis vs. The Jacksonville
Defense (Neutral Matchup)
Domanick Davis ground out 22/56/0 rushing and 5/39/0 receiving vs. The tough
Jaguars during their week 8 game at Reliant Stadium. Since then, the Texans
have run hot and cold, but Davis has been a consistent fantasy producer - over
the last 3 weeks, he has 65/275/3 rushing and 11/99/0 receiving to his credit
(10th best fantasy RB in the land during that span). He comes into the game
after burning Chicago for 25/95/1 rushing and 4/22/0 receiving last week - the
guy is a solid starting fantasy RB at this point in the season.
Jacksonville held the Packers to 21/94/0 last week (they've only allowed 6
TDs this season in this phase of the game), and now average 100.8 rushing yards
allowed per game in 2004 (8th in the NFL). Over the past 4 weeks, the team has
set a mark of 89 rushing yards allowed per game, with only .3 rushing TDs given
up per game in that span. They are a top-tier rush defense, without a doubt.
Houston's Tony Hollings is questionable due to his nagging hamstring, and G
Zach Wiegert is out due to a knee injury. DT Marcus Stroud is probable to play
(knee).
The forecast for AllTel Stadium calls for a high of 46F with a low of 37F and
a 40% chance for precipitation. If the rains come down hard at game time, footing
and ball-handling could become issues.
Davis is on a tear, but the Jaguars are not pushovers - and the game is in
the defense's house this week. This matchup looks like a fairly even contest
between top performing units from where we sit.
Cleveland's Lee Suggs vs. The Miami Defense
(Neutral Matchup)
Lee Suggs was the lone bright spot in last week's 21-0 loss to San Diego, as
he managed to crack the 100 yard barrier rushing the ball (21/105/0) in his
return to action. However, the Cleveland offense looks moribund at this point
in the season - rookie QB Luke McCown is struggling, and that will allow the
opposing defense (Miami, this week) to key on the run, as the passing game is
anemic. Suggs will be hard-pressed to repeat his feat again this week.
Miami hasn't been particularly good in this phase of the game, ranking 30th
in the NFL allowing an average of 140.7 rushing yards per game this season.
They bleed yardage at a clip of 138 per game over the past 4 weeks (1.0 rushing
scores per game in that span on average). The Patriots gained 38/166/1 vs. this
unit last week - Miami is not strong in this phase of the game.
Cleveland's squad is in good shape, while the Dolphins list LB Renauld Williams
(wrist, out); LB Eddie Moore (knee/calf, doubtful); LB Zach Thomas (hamstring,
questionable); DE David Bowens (back, probable); and LB Derrick Pope (hand,
probable).
The forecast for ProPlayer Stadium calls for a high of 73F with a low of 47F
and a 40% chance for rain. If the moisture comes down hard at game time, the
field could get slick and ball-handling could become an issue.
In this battle of the bad, neither team has a clear-cut advantage over the
other (but don't expect a huge game from Suggs and then you won't be disappointed).
Tennessee's Antowain Smith vs. The Denver
Defense (Neutral Matchup)
Chris Brown has been ruled out for the final 2 games of the year due to his
turf toe, so the Titans will turn to Antowain Smith for the closing 120 minutes
of the season. He's been less than impressive over the past 3 weeks (he had
2 good games prior to his run of mediocrity) - the team has been relying on
Billy Volek's arm and Drew Bennett's pass-catching abilities extensively. Smith
had 16/45/0 rushing last week, and 31/88/0 rushing with 10/107/0 receiving over
the past 3 weeks - he's not going to set any scoring records in the current
climate.
Denver's rush defense has been in the holiday spirit in recent weeks, giving
away 1.3 rushing scores per game on average over the last 4 weeks (104 rushing
yards per game on average). Kansas City ripped them for 36/162/2 last week -
the Broncos look a lot worse than their season average of 101.4 rushing yards
allowed per game would seem to indicate. The defense is off-target in both phases
of the game right now.
Denver lists DE Trevor Pryce as questionable to play this week due to his ever-present
back injury, and they placed DT Luther Elliss on IR due to his back problems
in the last week. Tennessee's OL is staffed by injured players - C Justin Hartwig
(finger); T Brad Hopkins (hand); T Jason Mathews (back);T Fred Miller (ankle);
and G Benji Olson (toe).
This game will go down in the Coliseum, where temperatures will range from
28F for a high to 11F for the low, with a 0% chance of precipitation. Under
those conditions, the football will be hard and slick, making ball-handling
more difficult than usual.
Smith and the Titans have issues due to injury problems, while the Broncos
come into this game playing pretty poorly in this phase of the game - that sounds
about even to us.
Seattle's Shaun Alexander vs. The Arizona
Defense (Neutral Matchup)
Shaun Alexander was limited to 12/65/0 vs. Arizona back in week 7 as the team
suffered through a horrendous 4 interception performance by Matt Hasselbeck
that day, which limited the number of scoring chances available for Alexander
to exploit. Last week, he put up a workmanlike 19/77/0 rushing and 4/19/0 receiving
vs. The tough Jets' defense - Alexander didn't set the world on fire, but he
played a solid game. Over the last 3 weeks he has 67/272/2 rushing and 8/52/1
receiving under his belt (13th best fantasy RB during that span) - Alexander
deserves to start, and has the potential to explode at any time.
Last week, Marshall Faulk as stonewalled by Arizona (10/22/0 rushing with 1/13/0
receiving) - the Cardinals didn't fear Chris Chandler/Jamie Martin at QB, so
they could clamp down on the running game. Over the last 4 weeks, the team has
averaged 138 rushing yards and .5 rushing TDs given up per contest - they aren't
usually able to completely shut their opposition down (the team ranks 27th in
the NFL allowing an average of 133.4 rushing yards per game), although they
don't give up many TDs (9 in 14 games so far this season in this phase).
The Seahawks come into the game in good shape. The Cardinals have DT Russell
Davis (hamstring, questionable) and LB Raynoch Thompson (shoulder, questionable)
listed along with DT Darnell Docket (groin, probable) and LB Gerald Hayes (illness,
probable).
The forecast for Qwest Field calls for a high of 50F and a low of 44F with
a 30% chance for precipitation.
Alexander is an elite back, while the Cardinals field a so-so rush D that comes
into this game hot. With home-field advantage at his back, we think Alexander
has even odds for a decent outing vs. Arizona.
Carolina's Nick Goings vs. The Tampa Bay
Defense (Neutral Matchup)
23/106/0 rushing with 3/17/0 receiving defined Nick Going's totals vs. The
Buccaneers' back in week 12. He's been a reliable 100+ yard rusher most weeks
since, with 91/291/3 to his credit over the past 3 weeks (including 24/61/1
vs. The tough Falcons last week - his first non-100 yard rushing game in 5 weeks).
The Panthers have come to rely on Goings as their featured running back in the
second half of the season (by necessity and due to his solid efforts).
29/115/0 was the tally for New Orleans vs. Tampa Bay in this phase of the game
last week. The Buccaneers have averaged 130 rushing yards allowed and .3 rushing
scores surrendered per game over the past 4 weeks, which is near to their season
pace of 123.2 rushing yards allowed per game (20th in the NFL). The Buccaneers'
defensive front is very vanilla this season - they have limited scoring to only
8 rushing TDs in 14 games, though.
The Buccaneers list DT Chidi Ahanotu (groin) and DEs Simeon Rice (hamstring)
and Greg Spires (back) as probable to play. RB Casey Cramer is probable for
Carolina (concussion).
The forecast for Raymond James Stadium calls for a high of 53F and a low of
37F with a 40% chance for rain. If the moisture comes down hard at game time,
the field could get slick - both footing and ball-handling may be issues.
Goings enjoyed modest success vs. The Buccaneers just a few weeks ago - things
haven't changed much for either team since then - he should produce at about
the same level again this week.
Tampa Bay's Michael Pittman vs. The Carolina
Defense (Neutral Matchup)
Michael Pittman was a scoring machine the last time these teams clashed (week
12) with 18/29/0 rushing to go with 8/134/2 receiving - he was the only Buccaneer
to score TDs in the game. Last week, against New Orleans, he amassed 24/131/0
rushing and 2/10/0 receiving - he has piled up 53/241/1 rushing and 10/68/0
receiving over the past 3 weeks, to rank 23rd among all fantasy RBs during that
span - he's a marginal #2 fantasy starter right now.
Carolina's rush D had been stout in the closing weeks of the season - they
average 91 rushing yards and .5 rushing TDs allowed per game over the past 4
weeks - but they were embarrassed last week, receiving a 38/204/2 thrashing
by the Falcons. The team is tied for 3rd -most rushing scores allowed this year
(at 17), but the Panthers have been much tougher since the midpoint of the year,
excepting last week's implosion.
Carolina comes into the game in relatively decent shape, listing DE Kemp Rasmussen
(neck, questionable) and DE Al Wallace (back, probable). Tampa has no new complaints
of note in this phase of the game.
The forecast for Raymond James Stadium calls for a high of 53F and a low of
37F with a 40% chance for rain. If the moisture comes down hard at game time,
the field could get slick - both footing and ball-handling may be issues.
Pittman couldn't do much on the ground vs. The Panthers the last time around,
but stung them in the aerial phase - Carolina comes into this game reeling from
the Falcon's attack, but still alive for a playoff berth. This looks like a
fairly even matchup, with neither squad playing at the top of their game at
the moment.
New England's Corey Dillon vs. The New York
Jets' Defense (Neutral Matchup)
Corey Dillon put up 22/115/0 rushing against the Jets during their most recent
contest (week 7). Since then, he's set a new career high in TDs scored in a
single season, and has amassed 302/1430/11 rushing and 12/73/1 receiving to
date. Last week, Dillon crammed in 26/121/1 rushing and 2/1/1 receiving vs.
The Dolphins - he's piled up 66/309/4 rushing and 2/1/1 receiving in the past
3 weeks. Dillon should be in your lineup if you have him.
The Jets field one of the league's best rush defenses, averaging 100.4 rushing
yards allowed per game (7th in the NFL) with only 7 scores surrendered in this
phase of the game to date. Over the past 4 weeks, they average 91 rushing yards
and .5 rushing scores given up per contest, including last week's 23/88/0 grudgingly
surrendered to Shaun Alexander and company.
RB Kevin Faulk is questionable to play due to a sore knee. DE John Abraham
(knee, out), DT DeWayne Robertson (illness, probable) and LB Victor Hobson (ankle,
probable) are listed by the Jets.
The forecast for New Jersey calls for a high of 37F with a low of 24F and a
20% chance for precipitation. That's balmy December weather in that part of
the U.S.A.
The Patriots will be contested for every inch they gain on the ground this
week - this phase of the game is a strong-point for both teams.
New York Jets' Curtis Martin vs. The New
England Defense (Neutral Matchup)
20/70/1 rushing and 2/0/0 receiving were Curtis Martin's totals vs. New England
during their week 7 showdown. He's been up and down in the weeks since, as the
Jets' offense has watched Chad Pennington get knocked out, and then return to
the lineup - over the past 3 weeks, Martin has 71/340/3 rushing and 7/55/1 receiving
to his credit, to rank 5th among all fantasy backs during that span - he's back
in the saddle in time for the fantasy league championships happening everywhere
this weekend. 24/134/2 was his rushing total last week vs. Seattle (the Jets
racked up 41/229/2 as a team during the game) - the Jets' offense is going full-throttle
at this stage of the season.
The Patriots limited the Dolphins to only 52 yards rushing last week, but gave
up 3 rushing TDs during the game. Over the past 4 weeks, they average 81 rushing
yards and 1.0 TDs surrendered per contest. That's even better than their 5th-ranked
season average of 99.4 rushing yards allowed per game (9 TDs allowed in this
phase of the game to date). New England's defensive front is tough to crack
open this year.
The Jets list G Pete Kendall (knee, probable), while the Patriots have LB Matt
Chatham (hamstring, questionable) on their initial injury report.
The forecast for New Jersey calls for a high of 37F with a low of 24F and a
20% chance for precipitation. That's balmy December weather in that part of
the USA
Martin is an elite NFL back, while the Patriots' talented defensive front is
playing very well right now - this looks like a neutral matchup between league-leading
units from the bleachers.
Indianapolis' Edgerrin James vs. The San
Diego Defense (Neutral Matchup)
Two divisional champions face off in this game, and playoff positioning is
suddenly in play thanks to the New England loss in Miami - this will be a hard-fought
game. 22/69/1 rushing with 1/23/0 receiving were James' totals last week vs.
The tough Baltimore defense - those aren't stellar fantasy numbers, but they
represent a solid effort vs. a powerful opponent. With 311/1464/9 rushing and
46/442/0 receiving to date, James is leading the NFL in yardage from scrimmage
and ranks 6th among all fantasy RBs in fantasy points per game so far. Start
him if you've got him
San Diego allowed a healthy 29/126/0 to the Browns' anemic attack last week
- as the team has averaged 93 rushing yards allowed per game over the past 4
weeks (with 1.3 rushing TDs given up per contest during that span), the 126
yards allowed was a surprise. The Chargers average 80.9 rushing yards allowed
per game this season, which is tied for 1st in the NFL - they are an elite rush
defense this year.
The Colts list G Rick DeMulling (ribs, questionable); G Ryan Lilja (head, probable)
and G Tupe Peko (ankle, probable). San Diego is in good shape in this phase
of the game.
This game is to be played inside the air-conditioned RCA Dome - weather won't
be a factor.
Both squads are the cream of the NFL crop this season - we think the teams
are evenly matched in this phase of the game.
New York Giants' Tiki Barber vs. The Cincinnati
Defense (Neutral Matchup)
Eli Manning finally provided a credible threat to pass the ball last week,
and Tiki Barber responded with is best game in a month of Sundays, with 18/76/1
rushing and 5/38/0 receiving vs. The ultra-tough Steelers. Other than that decent
game, Barber has struggled since Manning assumed the helm (Barber managed 52/169/2
rushing and 7/47/0 receiving over the past 3 weeks, 28th among all fantasy RBs
in fantasy points per game) - but things are definitely looking up coming into
week 16.
Cincinnati stuffed the Bills' backs last week, holding them to 29/43/0 during
the game. They've been solid during the past 4 weeks, averaging 101 rushing
yards allowed per contest (1.0 TDs per outing during that span). Those numbers
represent a significant improvement over their season average of 131.4 rushing
yards allowed per game (26th in the NFL to date). The Bengals aren't fading
away at the end of the season.
The Bengals list DE Duane Clemons (knee, questionable), while the Giants have
G Chris Snee (glands) and T Brandon Winey (concussion) down as out, while C
Shaun O'Hara (ankle) and RB Derrick Ward (ankle) are questionable to play.
The forecast for Paul Brown Stadium calls for a high of 16F and a low of 10F
with a 0% chance for precipitation. In the subfreezing temperatures, the football
will be hard and slick - ball-handling is likely to be more difficult than usual.
The Giants' offense is just starting to get back in synch, while the Bengals
are jelling as a defensive unit - this looks like a pretty even matchup for
the visitors.
Baltimore's Jamal Lewis/Chester Taylor vs.
The Pittsburgh Defense (Tough Matchup)
Jamal Lewis managed 24/62/2 rushing vs. Pittsburgh back in week 2, with an
assist of 9/76/0 from Chester Taylor. Over the past few weeks, the team has
been splitting duty between these two backs, due to Lewis' injured ankle (20/130/0
rushing for Lewis last week, 7/22/0 for Taylor, with 2/17/0 and 2/20/0 receiving,
respectively). Lewis is gutting it out, be he limped visibly at points last
week vs. Indianapolis. Look for some sharing of the load to continue this week
as well.
Pittsburgh is the league's top ranked rush D this season, averaging only 80.9
rushing yards allowed per game, with only 5 rushing scores surrendered to date.
They contained Tiki Barber last week (18/76/1 rushing with 5/38/0 receiving),
and average 89 rushing yards and .3 rushing scores allowed per game over the
last 4 weeks. These guys are the hardest-nosed defensive front in the league,
and they are playing like it.
The Ravens list Lewis as questionable to play. Also on the early injury report
are RBs Alan Ricard (hamstring, probable) and Chester Taylor (hip/knee, probable).
LBs Kendrell Bell (groin, out),Clark Haggans (groin, out), Clint Kriewaldt (hamstring,
doubtful) are all on the Wednesday injury report.
The forecast for Heinz Field calls for a high of 20F with a low of 15F and
a 0% chance of precipitation. At this time of year, the wind can be a factor
and the football will be hard and slick - ball handling is likely to be more
difficult than usual on Sunday.
Lewis and the Ravens specialize in rushing the ball, while the Steelers focus
on shutting down the running game. The Ravens made some good things happen back
in week 2, but this time they visit the Steelers house - I wouldn't sit Jamal
Lewis but this looks like a tough matchup between top squads to us.
Pittsburgh's Jerome Bettis/Duce Staley?
vs. The Baltimore Defense (Tough Matchup)
Duce Staley had a tough time moving the ball vs. Baltimore back in week 2,
with 16/57/0 rushing and 1/9/0 receiving during the game. Since then, he's been
trying to rehab an injured hamstring, and he's been in and out of the lineup
in recent weeks (missed last week's game). Jerome Bettis, who was not in the
mix back in week 2, has seen a lot of action during the second half of the season,
with 49/214/2 rushing over the past 3 weeks, while Staley has 33/102/0 rushing
with 2/30/0 receiving over 2 games in 3 weeks.
The Ravens contained Edgerrin James to 22/69/1 last week (with 1/23/0 receiving)
- that's no surprise, considering they are the 6th ranked rush defense in the
league, allowing an average of 100.1 rushing yards per game this year (8 rushing
scores given up to date). Over the past 4 weeks, the team is giving up only
90 rushing yards and .8 TDs per contest in this phase of the game. The Ravens
are very stout vs. The running game in 2004.
Staley is listed as questionable to play this week (hamstring). Bettis is probable
to play (knee), as are RB Verron Haynes (knee) and C Chukky Okobi (back). LBs
Ray Lewis (wrist) and Bart Scott (knee) are both questionable to play. DT Ma'ake
Kemoeatu (calf) is also questionable.
The forecast for Heinz Field calls for a high of 20F with a low of 15F and
a 0% chance of precipitation. At this time of year, the wind can be a factor
and the football will be hard and slick - ball handling is likely to be more
difficult than usual on Sunday.
Look for the Steelers to clash with the Ravens early and often in this phase
of the game - this will be a tough matchup between two excellent teams.
Chicago's Thomas Jones vs. The Detroit Defense
(Tough Matchup)
Keeping up with the Joneses is something that the defenses on both teams will
try to do this week - Thomas Jones racked up 21/67/2 rushing and 6/38/0 receiving
vs. Detroit the first time these teams met, in the regular-season opener. Last
week, the Texans shut down the Bears' offense, limiting Jones to 15/40/0 rushing
and 7/37/0 receiving on the day - he has 43/115/0 rushing and 13/127/0 receiving
to his credit over the last 3 weeks (39th fantasy RB in the land during that
span). The Bear's offense isn't producing much in the way of fantasy points
during the waning moments of the 2004 season.
Detroit played well vs. The Viking's multitalented RBBC, allowing only 23/91/1
last week - they've been strong in this phase of the game lately, averaging
only 104 rushing yards and .3 rushing TDs allowed per game during the past 4
weeks. They are playing above their season average of 119.1 rushing yards allowed
per game (19th in the league this year) - the Lions have improved steadily in
the second half of the season.
Chicago lists key OT John Tait as questionable due to his sore knee, and RB
Bryan Johnson is out (foot injury). DT Marcus Bell is probable (ankle), and
LB Alex Lewis is questionable (ankle).
This game is to be played in Ford Field - weather won't be an issue in the
air-conditioned dome.
Thomas Jones and the Bears are struggling right now, while the Lions have elevated
their game during the second half of the season - advantage, Detroit.
Buffalo's Willis McGahee/Shaud Williams
vs. The San Francisco Defense (Tough Matchup)
Here's what we're hearing from Mike Mularkey at midweek: "The way Shaud
has prepared and stayed in the shadows of everything that has taken place in
the offense, he's always prepared. He's always hoped to get an opportunity and
here it is
He's not afraid to stick it up in there. If he sees there's
nothing there, he's hitting it. There's not a lot of little guys - and I call
him little but he's stout - who will stick their nose up in there and think
they can make positive yards into a pile and he does. I like that." Though
the Bills list McGahee as questionable, it seems to us that the team is leaning
towards playing Williams (with some carries going to Joe Burns as well). Keep
your eye on the injury reports later in the week to gauge McGahee's progress
as game-time approaches. In limited duty last week, Williams managed 14/30/0
vs. Cincinnati's defense - not a very auspicious start from the fantasy perspective.
San Francisco is tied for next-to-last place in the NFL allowing 18 rushing
scores to date (they average 113.9 rushing yards allowed per game to date).
Over the past 4 weeks, the 49ers have coughed up an average of 97 rushing yards
and .8 TDs in this phase, including last week's total of 40/128/0 allowed to
Washington. They are playing better in this phase of the game than their season
numbers would indicate in recent weeks.
Aside from McGahee's knee (questionable), the Bills list Travis Henry as questionable
due to his broken leg. C Jon Dorenbos (knee) is out. San Francisco lists DE
Andre Carter and LB Jamie Winborn (shoulder) as out.
The forecast for Monster Stadium calls for a high of 61F with a low of 46F
and a 0% chance of precipitation.
The Bills offense is predicated on rushing the ball effectively - can Williams
give them what they need? He'll get his chances vs. The improving 49ers - but
it won't be easy.
Oakland's RBBC vs. The Kansas City Defense
(Tough Matchup)
Oakland was stuffed in this phase of the game the last time they faced the
Chiefs, managing a pathetic 9/31/0 on the ground as a team. The bevy of backs
was largely ignored last week, and only managed 22/57/0 as a team (Zack Crockett
led the team with 8/27/0). The Raiders are not strong in this phase (tied for
22nd in the NFL averaging 3.8 yards per carry) and they spread the ball around
too much for any one player to excel in fantasy terms. Look long and hard elsewhere
on your roster before plugging one of these guys in during your league's fantasy
playoffs.
K.C. allowed 20/132/1 to the Broncos last week, and come into this game averaging
113 rushing yards allowed and 1.0 rushing scores given up per game over the
past 4 weeks. The team's average this season is 114.2 rushing yards allowed
per game, with 16 TDs surrendered in 14 weeks - the Chiefs don't scare their
opponents in this phase of the game.
Kansas City lists LB Monty Beisel (hip flexor, probable) this week, along with
DE Vonnie Holliday (groin, out). DTs Ryan Sims (ankle) and Junior Siavii (ankle)
are both probable to play. Oakland is without the services of their best RB,
Tyrone Wheatley (hamstring/leg, out), and G Ron Stone is out too (knee). T Barry
Sims (back, questionable) is also listed for Oakland.
This game is to be played at Arrowhead Stadium - the forecast calls for a high
of 22F and a low of 11F with a 0% chance for precipitation. At this time of
year, swirling winds are almost always a factor in this venue - and the football
will be hard and slick in subfreezing temperatures. Conditions will be likely
to impact on both of the quarterback's accuracy on Saturday. At this time of
year, teams love to pound the football. At this time of year, teams often prefer
to utilize the ground game.
However much the Raiders might like to run the ball, they just don't have the
personnel to get the job done right now. Advantage, Kansas City (Oakland's squad
is worse at moving the ball than the Chief's defensive front is at stopping
the run).
Jacksonville's Fred Taylor vs. The Houston
Defense (Tough Matchup)
Fred Taylor scored a TD last week (22/165/1 rushing vs. Green Bay) That makes
2 rushing TDs this season, with 1 receiving (26/1224/2 rushing, 36/345/1 receiving
to date). He cranks out the yardage on a regular basis, but woe to the basic-scoring
league owner with Taylor on his or her roster. Back in week 8, Taylor suffered
through a miserable outing vs. Houston, with a mere 3/9/0 rushing and 1/10/0
receiving to his credit. He will want payback this time around but he's battling
a knee injury.
Houston shut down the Bears' backs last week, allowing only 26/54/0 to Chicago's
stable. They average 125 rushing yards and .3 rushing scores given up per game
over the past 4 weeks, and lurk at 15th in the NFL this season averaging 115.1
rushing yards allowed per game - but they are tied for the league lead in rushing
scores allowed, with only 4 surrendered. TDs don't come easy in this phase of
the game when playing the Texans.
Houston's D comes in with a clean bill of health, while the Jaguars list Taylor
as questionable (knee). Keep an eye on his status this week.
The forecast for AllTel Stadium calls for a high of 46F with a low of 37F and
a 40% chance for precipitation. If the rains come down hard at game time, footing
and ball-handling could become issues.
Taylor and the Jags want to play well in this game - the Texans are in the
role of the spoiler. Considering how things went the first time around, and
how well the Texans played last week, this looks like a tough matchup for Taylor
and company.
Dallas' Julius Jones vs. The Washington
Defense (Tough Matchup)
Julius Jones wasn't in the lineup for the Cowboys during the week 3 match between
Dallas and Washington. He's in the mix now, though, in a big way - Jones has
racked up 78/366/4 rushing and 7/40/0 receiving over the past 3 weeks, to rank
4th among all fantasy RBs in FP per game. He managed 25/80/0 rushing and 2/21/0
receiving in the face of the Eagles last week - Jones was slightly off-pace
(as was the entire offense).
18/55/0 was the total that the anemic 49ers scraped together vs. The Redskins
last week - they average 67 rushing yards and .5 rushing scores given up per
game over the past 4 weeks. It's no wonder that the Redskins are ranked 3rd
in the NFL allowing only 83.1 rushing yards per game this season (7 TDs allowed
in 14 games). What's more, the Redskins just added LaVar Arrington back to their
defensive front last week after a season-long absence. They are finishing the
season strongly.
Dallas comes into the game in good shape, with no new injuries of note to report.
Washington says Arrington is probable (knee).
The forecast for Texas Stadium calls for a high of 53F and a low of 36F with
a 0% chance for rain.
Jones looks like a bona-fide NFL star in the making, but he faces a tough test
from the Redskins this week.
St. Louis' Marshall Faulk/Steven Jackson?
vs. The Philadelphia Defense (Tough Matchup)
Marshall Faulk was totally ineffective vs. The Cardinals last week (10/22/0
rushing with 1/13/0 receiving), and though coach Martz insisted earlier this
week that Steven Jackson was fit to play last week, Jackson didn't touch the
ball at all. Monday saw Martz apologizing to the team for calling a poor game
(again), but that was no solace to the fantasy owners of Faulk and Jackson.
At the first hint of trouble in the rushing phase of the game, coach Martz has
a tendency to abandon the run completely. That should make fantasy owners hesitate
before inserting Faulk or Jackson this week.
Philadelphia limited the Cowboys to 26/80/0 rushing last week - they've been
tough in this phase over the past 4 weeks, keeping the opposition under 100
yards per game (95 per contest on average), while surrendering only .5 rushing
TDs per game. Philly lurks just outside the top 10 in the NFL this season, averaging
110.4 rushing yards allowed per game in 2004 (with only 9 TDs given up to date).
The Eagles field an above-average squad in this phase of the game.
St. Louis lists G Chris Dishman (knee, questionable). The Eagle's DL woes continue:
Derrick Burgess is out (sternum) as is DT Hollis Thomas (elbow); DE Hugh Douglas
(shoulder), DE Jerome McDougle (knee) and DT Corey Simon (back) are all probable
to play. LB Nate Wayne is doubtful (hamstring).
This game is to be played in the Edward Jones Dome - weather won't be an issue
indoors.
Given the lack of confidence the Rams' coaches show in their running game,
and the above-average defense that is coming to town this week, this looks like
a tough matchup for the Rams' backs.
San Francisco's Kevan Barlow/Maurice Hicks
vs. The Buffalo Defense (Bad Matchup)
Kevan Barlow, on the strength of 6/18/0 rushing vs. The Redskins, has been
reinstalled as the starting RB in San Francisco over Maurice Hicks (11/37/0
rushing and 2/18/0 receiving vs. Washington last week). Frankly, neither guy
excites us in this system, which has averaged 3.5 rushing yards per carry during
2004. Yawn.
Buffalo fields a top-5 rush D, averaging 96.4 rushing yards allowed per game
(4th in the NFL), with only 5 scores given up all year long. They have been
even tougher over the past 4 weeks, averaging 85 rushing yards allowed per game
(.5 TDs per contest in this phase), including last week's atypically poor 31/149/1
performance vs. Cincinnati. Most weeks, the Bills are practically immovable
in this phase of the game.
Both teams have a clean bill of health, with no new injuries to report.
The forecast for Monster Stadium calls for a high of 61F with a low of 46F
and a 0% chance of precipitation.
The 49ers are not good at running the ball; the Bills excel at stuffing the
opposition most of the time. Advantage, Buffalo.
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