Hi Folks,

Here's our look at the Rushing Matchups for this week.

PLEASE NOTE: This does NOT replace the Cheatsheet ranking. The
Cheatsheet rankings are the final say on where we see a player for
that week. The Matchup Breakdowns are simply one more tool in the box
when it comes to helping choose your lineup.

Also note, just because a player has a "bad" matchup, it does NOT mean
he's not a starter in your league. If Domanick Davis is playing
the toughest rush defense in the league, that just means he's got a
tough matchup that week. He's also your starter. In the same way, if
the worst RB on your roster has a "great" matchup, that doesn't
necessarily mean you start him, it just means he'll likely fare better
this week than he normally would.

Bottom line, the cheatsheets are the final word.

Let's jump to it.

Quick Index:

Great Matchups:

Houston's Domanick Davis vs. The Cleveland Defense
Detroit's Kevin Jones vs. The Tennessee Defense
Jacksonville's RBBC vs. The Oakland Defense
Tampa Bay's Michael Pittman/Mike Alstott vs. The Arizona Defense

Good Matchups:

Seattle's Shaun Alexander vs. The Atlanta Defense
Cincinnati's Rudi Johnson vs. The Philadelphia Defense
Dallas' Julius Jones vs. The New York Giants' Defense
Green Bay's Ahman Green and company vs. The Chicago Defense
Chicago's Thomas Jones vs. The Green Bay Defense
Denver's Reuben Droughns/Tatum Bell vs. The Indianapolis Defense
Baltimore's Jamal Lewis/Chester Taylor vs. The Miami Defense
Carolina's Nick Goings vs. The New Orleans Defense
New York Jets' Curtis Martin vs. The St. Louis Defense
New England's Corey Dillon and company vs. The San Francisco Defense

Neutral Matchups:

Atlanta's Warrick Dunn vs. The Seattle Defense
New York Giants' Tiki Barber vs. The Dallas Defense
San Diego's Jesse Chatman vs. The Kansas City Defense
Washington's Ladell Betts vs. The Minnesota Defense
Arizona's Emmitt Smith vs. The Tampa Bay Defense

Tough Matchups:

Philadelphia's Dorsey Levens and company vs. The Cincinnati Defense
Cleveland's Lee Suggs vs. The Houston Defense
Tennessee's Antowain Smith vs. The Detroit Defense
Indianapolis' Edgerrin James and company vs. The Denver Defense
Oakland's RBBC vs. The Jacksonville Defense
Kansas City's Larry Johnson vs. The San Diego Defense
Minnesota's Michael Bennett/Onterrio Smith? vs. The Washington Defense
New Orleans' Deuce McAllister vs. The Carolina Defense
St. Louis' Steven Jackson/Marshall Faulk vs. The New York Jets' Defense
Pittsburgh's Duce Staley/Verron Haynes vs. The Buffalo Defense
Buffalo's Willis McGahee/Shaud Williams? vs. The Pittsburgh Defense

Bad Matchups:

Miami's Sammy Morris/Travis Minor vs. The Baltimore Defense
San Francisco's Kevan Barlow vs. The New England Defense



Houston's Domanick Davis vs. The Cleveland Defense (Great Matchup)

Domanick Davis has been on fire down the stretch, with 78/373/3
rushing and 15/134/0 receiving during the last 3 weeks, including a
dominant 30/150/1 vs. the usually hard-nosed Jaguars' defensive front.
He's on a roll (the Texans averaged 4.9 yards per carry last week
(43/211/1 as a team) – the OL averaged 1.1 yards per carry more than
the Texans' season average of 3.8 ypc last week.

Cleveland's rush D has been awful down the stretch, allowing an
average of 197 rushing yards and 2.0 rushing TDs during the past 4
weeks, including last week's 25/116/0 to the Dolphins' tandem during
the "Battle of the AFC's Worst" vs. Miami. Cleveland is now dead last
in the NFL this season with 21 rushing TDs allowed to date, and 31st
in the league averaging 145.2 rushing yards allowed per game. Like we
said – awful.

Cleveland lists LBs Mason Unck (hamstring, questionable) and Warrick
Holdman (finger, probable), while the Texans report G Chester Pitts is
questionable (ankle).

The forecast for Reliant Stadium calls for a high of 79F and a low of
64F, with a 50% chance for rain. If the weather looks nasty at
game-time, the retractable roof will be closed, so weather shouldn't
be a huge factor in this matchup.

Davis is on fire, while the Browns have been flushed down the toilet
and now reside in the NFL's sewer.



Detroit's Kevin Jones vs. The Tennessee Defense (Great Matchup)

Kevin Jones has found his stride in recent weeks, with 77/358/3
rushing and 5/43/0 receiving over the past 3 weeks (including 25/123/1
rushing and 1/8/0 receiving vs. Chicago last week). Detroit is tied
for 9th in the NFL averaging 4.4 yards per carry at this point in the
season – Jones is responsible for the respectable Lions' running game.

Tennessee's shattered defense can't even slow teams down at this point
in the season, averaging 4.8 TDs (total) allowed per game over the
past 4 weeks, with an average of 139 rushing yards and 1.8 rushing
scores given up in that time frame. Last week, they were rocked for
46/193/2 by the Broncos. The bottom line here is that the team can't
even field a full 45 man roster on game-day, and a lot of the players
who are on the field are banged up in one way or another. Tennessee
will be glad to see the season end on Sunday.

This week, the Titans list LB Rocky Boiman (calf); DT Jared Clauss
(ankle); DE Carlos Hall (knee/finger); DT Albert Haynesworth (elbow);
LB Cody Spencer (abdomen) as questionable. The Lions report G David
Loverne (leg) and G Damien Woody (hip) as questionable.

The forecast for the Coliseum calls for a high of 65F with a low of
50F and a 50% chance for precipitation. If the rain comes down thickly
at game time, the field could get sloppy and slow, and ball-handling
could become an issue as well.

Look for Jones to go out with a bang against the lame Titans defensive front.



Jacksonville's RBBC vs. The Oakland Defense (Great Matchup)

The word out of Jacksonville at mid-week is that Fred Taylor is
expected to play in the season finale (from a 12/28/04 article on
jacksonville.com): "We anticipate having all our guys [against the
Raiders], including Fred.", coach Del Rio indicated on Tuesday. Taylor
was a game-time scratch due to swelling and discomfort in his left
knee (strained MCL). How long the knee will hold up is another
question, however.

In Taylor's absence, the Jaguar's stable of backups managed to scrape
up 20/95/0 vs. Houston last week (Greg Jones led the team with
9/38/0). The Jaguars average a healthy 4.3 yards per carry this season
– their OL has done it's job in this phase of the game.

Oakland's defense is pathetic this year, and allows an average of
127.9 rushing yards per game (24th in the NFL this season) with the
2nd-most rushing scores allowed to date (20). Over the past 4 weeks,
the Raiders have given away an average of 132 rushing yards and 1.8
rushing scores per contest, including last weeks' totals of 29/99/2 to
the Priest Holmes-less K.C. Chiefs. It's easy to score on the Raiders
in this phase of the game.

The Raider's LB corps is banged up, listing Sam Williams (high ankle
sprain, doubtful) and DeLawrence Grant (knee, questionable) – Williams
is expected to undergo corrective surgery on his ankle soon. Also
listed are DE Grant Irons (knee, doubtful), DT Warren Sapp (back,
questionable), LB Travian Smith (knee, questionable) and DDE Tyler
Brayton (neck, probable). Jacksonville lists Taylor as questionable to
play through his nagging knee injury.

The forecast for Network Associates Coliseum calls for a high of 55F
with a low of 41F and a 30% chance for precipitation. If the moisture
falls thickly at game-time, footing and ball-handling could become
more tricky than usual.

The Jaguars have some capable backs on their team, and have a good
opportunity to go out of the regular season with a splash against the
weak Raiders.



Tampa Bay's Michael Pittman/Mike Alstott vs. The Arizona Defense (Great Matchup)

The Buccaneers' rushing attack hasn't been very productive in recent
weeks – Michael Pittman has a total of 46/214/0 rushing and 11/69/0
receiving over the past 3 games (34th fantasy RB in the land in
fantasy points per game during that span), including last week's poor
totals of 10/41/0 rushing and 3/13/0 receiving. The Buccaneers have
averaged 3.8 rushing yards per carry, tied for 22nd in the NFL this
season – they definitely have room to improve heading into the
off-season.

Arizona has been soft in this phase of the game recently, allowing an
average of 145 rushing yards per contest (with an average of 1.0 TDs
given up each week) during the last 4 weeks. They are the 29th ranked
rush D in the land  this season, giving up 136.2 yards and 12 TDs to
date. Last week, Shaun Alexander punished this unit for 30/154/3 (the
Seahawks totaled 36/175/3 on the day vs. Arizona). The Cardinals are
fading away into the sunset at this point in the season.

Arizona lists LB Karlos Dansby (foot, probable), while Tampa's C Sean
Mahan has a sore quadriceps (probable).

The forecast for Sun Devil Stadium calls for a high of 66F with a low
of 46F and a 30% chance of precipitation – if the rains falls heavily
at game-time, the field could get sloppy and slick (this field sees
both college and pro games during the year, which means the turf has
greater wear-and-tear than most pro stadiums), while the ball would be
harder to handle than usual.

Pittman has a great shot to go out of the regular season with a bang
against the soft Cardinals.



Dallas' Julius Jones vs. The New York Giants' Defense (Good Matchup)

Julius Jones wasn't in the lineup for the Cowboys back in week 5 (the
last time these teams played each other) – recent history won't tell
us much about this matchup. The Cowboys will be without 3rd
down/change of pace back Richie Anderson, who was placed on IR with a
pinched nerve in his neck for the season finale (despite never
appearing on an official injury report due to the complaint). With
70/225/1 rushing and 6/39/0 receiving over the past 3 weeks, Jones has
slowed down as the season draws to a close (168/670/6 rushing with
12/63/0 receiving in 7 games of action this year). Last week, against
the stout Redskins' defensive front, Jones managed 22/57/0 rushing
with 2/10/0 receiving.

The Giants' rush D clamped down on Cincinnati's squad last week
(25/63/1) – it was their best performance in this phase of the game
for quite some time. The Giants average 151 rushing yards allowed per
game (with 1.0 TDs given up per contest) over the last 4 weeks, and
rank 28th in the NFL this season allowing 134 rushing yards per game
on average. They haven't been an imposing defense this season, but
they did play well last week.

The Giants list DTs Kenderick Allen (hamstring), Lance Legree
(quadriceps) and Fred Robbins (hamstring) as questionable and LBs
Raheem Orr (concussion, questionable) and Reggie Tobor
(stomach/illness, probable).

The forecast for Giants' Stadium calls for a high of 60F with a low of
39F and a 20% chance for precipitation. That's balmy weather in New
Jersey during the month of December!

Jones has slowed down somewhat in recent weeks, and struggled against
the Redskins' top-shelf squad – however, the Giants are not a top rush
defense this season. We think Jones will do well against the
usually-generous Giants' defensive front.



Seattle's Shaun Alexander vs. The Atlanta Defense (Good Matchup)

Seattle's Shaun Alexander was the star of the show last week, racking
up 30/154/3 as the team leaned on the rushing game last week (Trent
Dilfer was in at QB and managed only 10/26 for 128 yards, 0 TDs and 1
interception). Over the past 3 weeks, Alexander has piled up 76/343/3
rushing and 5/31/1 receiving to rank 6th among all fantasy RBs in
fantasy points per game. He's a threat to explode for a pile of
fantasy points any given Sunday.

Atlanta's defense laid down for the Saints to the tune of 40/160/1 in
this phase of the game last week. The team didn't play Michael Vick,
and Matt Schaub threw 2 interceptions during the game, increasing the
pressure on the Atlanta defense. As the story could be similar this
week, the Seahawks' offense is likely to see a lot of playing time
this week. Atlanta hasn't been very strong in this phase of the game
over the last 4 weeks, allowing an average of 125 yards and 1.2
rushing scores per game. The Falcons rank 9th in the NFL this season,
allowing an average of 106.5 rushing yards per game on average, but
they are very vulnerable in the red-zone, having given away 18 rushing
scores in 15 games (tied for 3rd-most TDs allowed in this phase during
2004).

The Seahawks come into this game in fine health on their squad,
although T Walter Jones has a sore ankle (questionable) and backup FB
Heath Evans (ankle, questionable) and starting FB Mack Strong (thigh,
probable) are also dinged up. The Falcons list DT Ed Jasper (hand,
questionable).

The forecast for Qwest Field calls for a high of 43F and a low of 34F
with a 30% chance for precipitation. If the moisture falls thickly at
game-time, footing and ball-handling could be issues during the
contest.

Atlanta's intensity level is likely to be down for this game, while
the Seahawks need to win to sew up the NFC West crown (they have
clinched a play-off slot). Advantage, Seattle.



Cincinnati's Rudi Johnson vs. The Philadelphia Defense (Good Matchup)

The Bengals eked out a win last week vs. the Giants – Rudi Johnson had
a poor outing, with 19/31/1 rushing (2/13/0 receiving), although the
TD salvaged the afternoon for his fantasy owners. 66/250/2 rushing and
4/48/0 receiving represent his totals over the past 3 weeks – the
entire Bengals offense has sputtered in the absence of Carson Palmer.
However, Johnson is still a major cog in the machine and should see
20+ touches in the season finale – hopefully he'll be able to gain
more than 1.6 yards per carry this week.

The Eagles got stomped by the Rams last week, giving up 44/209/1
rushing during the game. The team has allowed an average of 118
rushing yards and .5 TDs per contest over the past 4 weeks in this
phase of the game – the 209 yard game was highly unusual. The team
averages 117 rushing yards allowed per game this season (15th in the
NFL). However, with the "B" offensive squad on the field for the
majority of the game last week (and probably this week, too), the
pressure is on the Eagles' defense (St. Louis had 41:44 time of
possession last week – that's a lot of time on the field for a defense
to absorb!).

The Eagles list DE Derrick Burgess (sternal separation, out) and DT
Hollis Thomas (elbow, out), along with LB Nate Wayne (hamstring,
questionable) and DE Hugh Douglas (shoulder, probable) – they have a
lot of key defensive personnel injured and on the sidelines right now.
Cincinnati's OT Willie Anderson continues to play through a serious
knee injury (probable). T Alex Sulfsted has a sore Achilles
(probable).

The forecast for Lincoln Financial Field calls for a high of 61F and a
low of 36F with a 30% chance of precipitation. If the conditions are
soggy at game-time, footing and ball-handling could become issues in
this contest.

With little incentive to start their leading personnel (and a lot of
legitimate injuries also draining the talent pool), the Eagles look
like an easy mark for Johnson this week.



Green Bay's Ahman Green and company vs. The Chicago Defense (Good Matchup)

24/128/0 Ahman Green week 2 (31/152/0 as a team). However, coach
Sherman was adamant that he was going to be very "careful" with Green
this week due to Greens' tender ribs (and the fact that the team
clinched the NFC North championship and the #3 seed in the playoffs
last week). Is Green going to be rested for most or all of the game?
We think there's a good chance he won't see much action. As Najeh
Davenport is also nursing a shoulder ailment, it would be no surprise
to see a lot of Tony Fisher and William Henderson in the mix this
week. Green Bay is tied for 4th in the NFL averaging 4.5 yards per
carry, so whoever gets the call is likely to do OK – but it's hard to
judge which backup will see the most carries.

Chicago coughed up 32/158/1 to the Lions last week, and have averaged
131 rushing yards and .8 rushing scores surrendered per game over the
past 4 weeks. They are the league's 26th ranked rush D this year,
allowing 132.7 rushing yards per contest on average (only 9 scores in
15 games, though). With key MLB Brian Urlacher sidelined due to a
hamstring injury, the defensive front has struggled to control the
line of scrimmage.

Aside from Urlacher (who is now on IR), the Bears list DE Adewale
Ogunleye (leg, out); LB Hunter Hillenmeyer (ankle, questionable); DE
Alex Brown (hamstring, probable) and DT Tommie Harris (ankle,
probable). Davenport is officially questionable while T Kevin Barry is
probable (quadriceps).

The forecast for Soldier Field calls for a high of 40F with a low of
35F and a 20% chance for precipitation. That's a really nice forecast
for the Windy City at this time of year – we'll see if it holds up.

Chicago's defensive front is struggling to find traction in this phase
of the game, while the Packers' offense is generally successful
running the ball week in and week out, regardless of who actually
carries the ball. Advantage, Green Bay.



Chicago's Thomas Jones vs. The Green Bay Defense (Good Matchup)

The Bears ran all over the Packers in their first contest, with
35/182/1 as a team (Thomas Jones had 23/152/1 to his credit on the
ground). The Bears are just finding their groove in this phase of the
game once again, having enjoyed their first 100+ yard rushing
performance from a back since week 5 in last week's game vs. Detroit –
Thomas Jones had  22/109/0 rushing last week (OT John Tait just got
back into the lineup last week after 3 weeks on the sidelines). Over
the past 3 weeks, Jones has 50/175/0 rushing and 14/139/0 receiving to
his credit.

Green Bay's rush D has been anything but solid in recent weeks,
allowing an average of 132 rushing yards per game (with .6 TDs per
contest) over the last 4 weeks, including last week's total of
24/131/0 allotted to Minnesota. The team has averaged 117.9 rushing
yards allowed this season (16th in the NFL) – they are on the wrong
side of that average heading into the playoffs.

Green Bay is likely to rest a number of key defensive players,
including LB Na'il Diggs (kidneys/back, not listed), DT Grady Jackson
(knee, probable) and they lost DT James Lee to IR due to continuing
problems with cartilage damage in one knee. Chicago's OL is battered
but likely to play, and they don't report anyone on Wednesday. RB
Bryan Johnson continues to be sidelined by his foot injury (out).

The forecast for Soldier Field calls for a high of 40F with a low of
35F and a 20% chance for precipitation. That's a really nice forecast
for the Windy City at this time of year – we'll see if it holds up.

Chicago is playing out the string, but they would love to sweep the
Packers this season – Green Bay just wants to get out of the game in
good health (their focus is on the playoffs at this point in the
season). Advantage, Chicago.



Denver's Reuben Droughns/Tatum Bell vs. The Indianapolis Defense (Good Matchup)

Denver detonated the tottering shell of Tennessee's defensive front
last week, causing them to implode like an old, abandoned building –
46/193/2 as a team (22/91/2 for Droughns, 12/44/0 for Bell – Droughns
also snagged 2/30/1 receiving, Bell caught 1 for 12 yards). We expect
to see a similar mix this week, with Droughns seeing the Lions' share
of the work with Bell in for a change of pace. Although understand
that the running back who gets hot may see extended playing time.

Indianapolis' rush defense hasn't been impressive this season,
averaging 121.5 rushing yards allowed per contest – 20th in the NFL
this season (with 11 TDs surrendered to date) – they've been even
softer over the past 4 weeks, giving up an average of 137 rushing
yards (.5 rushing scores) per contest. They did manage to contain the
Charger's attack to 29/93/1 last week – the Colts aren't complete
patsies in this phase of the game. They don't scare anybody, though.

The Colts list LBs Gilbert Gardner (shoulder) and Jim Nelson
(shoulder/clavicle) as out; LB Rob Morris (head) as doubtful; LB Gary
Brackett (thigh) as questionable; and LB Cato June (ankle) and DT Josh
Williams (shoulder) as probable. RB Kyle Johnson (ankle) and G Dan
Neil (knee/abdomen) are questionable for the Broncos, while RB Tatum
Bell (shoulder), Droughns (neck) and G Cooper Carlisle (ankle) are
probable.

The forecast for Mile High Stadium calls for a high of 49F with a low
of 30F and a 20% chance for precipitation. Wind conditions are always
a concern at this time of year – keep an eye on the forecast as
game-time approaches, as weather in the high plains next to the
Rockies is always highly unpredictable at this time of year.

Denver needs to win this game, while the Colts are coasting into the
playoffs (they may rest some of their key defensive players for most
of the game) – advantage, Denver.



Baltimore's Jamal Lewis/Chester Taylor vs. The Miami Defense (Good Matchup)

Baltimore struggled to move the ball vs. the potent Pittsburgh defense
last week, managing just 21/71/1 on the ground (QB Kyle Boller led the
team with 4/28/0 rushing, while Jamal Lewis struggled to 14/26/1
rushing with 2/16/0 receiving). It was a forgettable afternoon for the
Ravens, who aren't used to being stuffed by anybody. Lewis has
201/839/6 rushing and 10/116/0 receiving to his credit in 11 games
this season, but just couldn't get his motor going last week. He'll be
relieved to face Miami at home this week – read on to see why.

Lee Suggs rushed for 38/143/0 vs. Miami last week, playing on the
moribund Cleveland offense. Miami has averaged 137 rushing yards and
.8 TDs given up per game over the past 4 weeks (the team is 30th in
the NFL this season allowing an average of 140.8 rushing yards per
contest over 15 games). The Dolphins are consistently soft in this
phase of the game.

Baltimore lists Lewis as questionable to play despite his sore ankle.
Key G Edwin Mulitalo is out (triceps), while T Orlando Brown (knee) is
questionable and C Casey Rabach (thigh) is probable. Miami's report
includes DE Jay Williams (knee, questionable), DT Mario Monds (knee,
probable), DE Jason Taylor (foot, probable) and LB Zach Thomas
(hamstring, probable).

The forecast for M&T Bank Stadium calls for a high of 62F and a low of
41F with a 30% chance for rain – field conditions could be less than
optimal if the weather turns soggy around game time.

We think Lewis and Taylor will go out of the regular season on an
up-note vs. the ready-to-pack-up-and-go-home Dolphins.



Carolina's Nick Goings vs. The New Orleans Defense (Good Matchup)

Nick Goings punched the time clock and ground out 36/122/1 rushing and
6/46/0 receiving vs. the Saints back in week 13 – he is a solid
fantasy option almost every week since he stepped into the starting
role in Carolina. The guy has 5 100+ rushing performances in his last
6 games, including last week's 33/127/0 rushing and 4/39/0 receiving
outing vs. the tough Tampa Bay defense. He's been one of the reasons
for the Panther's resurgence during the second half of the season, and
he may well lead this club into the playoffs. He's rushed for 100+
yards in every home game since ascending to the top of the
depth-chart, by the way (the team plays at home in the season finale
this Sunday).

With rookie QB Matt Schaub under center for the Falcons, the Saints
keyed on the run and limited Atlanta to 24/93/1 rushing last week.
They average 140 rushing yards and .8 TDs allowed per game in this
phase during the last 4 weeks, which is in step with their
league-worst season average of 147.1 rushing yards allowed per game
(with 16 TDs surrendered in 15 games). The Saints' defensive front is
more like a welcome mat than a wall this season.

New Orleans lists LB Orlando Ruff (ankle, questionable), while the
Panthers report T Travelle Wharton has a sore ankle (probable).

The forecast for Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte calls for a high
of 67F with a low of 48F and a 30% chance for precipitation – if the
rain comes down hard around game-time, footing and ball-handling will
be trickier than usual.

Goings is a constant producer, and he had good results vs. the Saints
recently – at home, this looks like an attractive matchup for
Carolina's featured back.



New York Jets' Curtis Martin vs. The St. Louis Defense (Good Matchup)

Curtis Martin ran into the New England wall last week, and it wasn't
pretty (13/33/0 rushing, with 5/44/0 receiving) – the Jets could only
muster 18/46/0 rushing as a team last week. That's a far cry from
their usual 4.5 yards per carry average this season – it was an
atypically poor outing for a guy who has put up 61/239/2 rushing with
8/79/0 receiving over the past 3 weeks (with 343/1544/12 rushing and
39/223/2 receiving during the season to date). We think it was an
aberration and not the beginning of a trend.

St. Louis held the Philly backups to 23/81/0 rushing last week – the
Eagle's passing game was totally inept and the Eagles had only 18:16
time of possession, so don't be too impressed by the Rams numbers here
– they are deceptively good. The Rams have averaged 125 rushing yards
and .8 TDs allowed per game during the past 4 weeks, with a season
average of 133.3 rushing yards surrendered per game (27th in the NFL)
and 13 rushing TDs allowed to date. 81 rushing yards and 0 TDs
represents an abnormally low mark in this phase of the game vs. St.
Louis.

The Jets are in good shape, while the Rams list LB Drew Wahlroos
(knee, questionable) and DE Bryce Fisher (ankle, probable).

This game will be played in the Edward Jones Dome – weather won't be a factor.

Curtis Martin is an elite NFL back coming into this game off a bad
performance; the Rams are a poor NFL rush D coming into this game off
an easy outing vs. an opponent that didn't try very hard – advantage,
Jets.



New England's Corey Dillon and company vs. The San Francisco Defense
(Good Matchup)

As the Patriots have clinched the #2 seed in the AFC (first round bye,
hosting their first playoff game in the second round), they have
little reason to play Dillon this week. However, Kevin Faulk was
unable to play last week due to a sore knee, and the #3 RB on the
depth chart is rookie Cedric Cobbs (Rabih Abdullah is #4). Patrick
Pass, the FB, is also around to throw into the mix.

The 49ers were destroyed by the Bills last week – 36/226/3 was the
final tally for Buffalo when the dust cleared – it was a poor
performance, even for a team that leads the NFL with 21 rushing scores
given up to date (averaging 121.4 rushing yards allowed per game, 19th
in the NFL this season). Over the past 4 weeks, they've coughed up an
average of 123 rushing yards and 1.2 rushing TDs per contest – the
49ers are a poor team any way you slice it, and they stink at rush
defense.

The Patriots come into this game listing Kevin Faulk as questionable
due to his bad knee, while the 49ers list LB Jamie Winborn as out
(shoulder) while DT Anthony Adams (knee) and DE Corey Smith (knee) are
questionable.

The forecast for Gillette Stadium calls for a high of 55F with a low
of 31F and a 20% chance for precipitation. 55F will feel almost
tropical to the fans in Foxboro Massachusetts.

The 49ers are just playing for the off-season at this point, while the
Patriots want to get to the post-season in good health. Whoever the
Patriots trot out will have a good shot at a decent game vs. the
cellar-dwelling 49ers.



New York Giants' Tiki Barber vs. The Dallas Defense (Neutral Matchup)

Tiki Barber ripped up the Cowboys during their first week 5 matchup –
he gained 23/122/1 rushing and 5/76/0 receiving against the Cowboy's
defensive front that day. He has struggled along with the rest of the
offense since Eli Manning became the starting QB, but enjoyed a solid
22/109/1 rushing and 2/14/0 receiving outing vs. Cincinnati last week
– Barber has 59/240/3 rushing and 9/61/0 receiving to his credit over
the last 3 weeks (15th fantasy RB in fantasy points per game during
that span).

Dallas smothered the Redskins last week, allowing only 25/84/0 to
Washington as a team. They've been averaging only 93 rushing yards
allowed per game over the last 4 weeks, with 1.0 rushing scores given
up per game – that's a lot better than their season average of 111.1
rushing yards surrendered per contest (11th in the NFL). As the season
draws to a close, the Cowboy's are rediscovering their top form on the
defensive side of the ball.

Dallas placed LB Al Singleton on IR last week due to his groin injury.
New York has been doing without G Chris Snee (jaw/gland infection,
out) for several weeks, and T Brandon Winey (concussion, doubtful)
also missed last week's game. Also listed are G Gregory Walker (knee,
IR) and G Jason Whittle (back, questionable).

The forecast for Giants' Stadium calls for a high of 60F with a low of
39F and a 20% chance for precipitation. That's balmy weather in New
Jersey during the month of December!

Dallas' rush defense has regained their focus late in the season,
while Barber and the Giants are just now settling into a rhythm on
offense now that Manning is more comfortable under center – this looks
like a fairly even matchup between solid units heading into Sunday's
divisional showdown.



Atlanta's Warrick Dunn vs. The Seattle Defense (Neutral Matchup)

Warrick Dunn was asked to carry the load for the Falcons last week, in
the absence of Michael Vick (rookie Matt Schaub subbed for Vick vs.
the tough Bucs) and T. J. Duckett. Predictably, the Buccaneers keyed
on Dunn and dared Schaub to throw the ball (0 TDs allowed, with 2
interceptions). He still managed 18/5/1 rushing with 6/87/0 receiving
– Dunn played well under less-than-ideal conditions. This week, the
Falcons will probably rest most of the offensive starters again –
whether Dunn will grab some bench is not clear, but the team doesn't
have a lot of urgency to win this game, and a lot of incentive to go
into the playoffs healthy. The early word from coach Jim Mora is that
Duckett hopes to be available but we'll have to see how that pans out.

Seattle's rush D has been playing poorly to close the season,
averaging 157 rushing yards and 2.0 rushing scores allowed per contest
over the past 4 weeks. The Cardinals pounded 30/97/0 against Seattle
last week (Emmitt Smith's injured toe isn't 100% -- he could only
manage 23/65/0 on the ground), but Seattle isn't usually that stout.
This year, the team ranks 21st in the NFL with an average of 121.8
rushing yards allowed per game, and they are tied for 4th-most rushing
scores surrendered to date with 17.

Atlanta lists Duckett as questionable to play (knee), while Vick is
questionable (shoulder). Seattle's DE Grant Wistrom (knee, out), DT
Marcus Tubbs (ankle, out) and LB Tracy White (hamstring, out) all
missed the game last week – the injury problems along the defensive
front have impacted the run D in a negative way, obviously.

The forecast for Qwest Field calls for a high of 43F and a low of 34F
with a 30% chance for precipitation. If the moisture falls thickly at
game-time, footing and ball-handling could be issues during the
contest.

Seattle isn't playing well in this phase of the game, while Atlanta
probably won't play their best personnel for very long (if at all)
this week – this matchup looks pretty even to us, given the probable
circumstances.



San Diego's Jesse Chatman vs. The Kansas City Defense (Neutral Matchup)

LaDainian Tomlinson didn't have an outstanding yardage day vs. K.C.
back in week 12, with a mere 21 carries for 46 yards (but he punched
in 2 TDs), and 10/57/0 receiving – he still put up 100+ yards combined
and 2 TDs, even on a "slow" day. The guy is a fantasy footballer's
dream come true, but it's an open question just how long the coaching
staff will leave him in the game before parking their play-off bound,
"franchise" running back on the bench. We don't expect to see much
more than a cameo appearance from Tomlinson (if that, considering he
still has a tender groin), given the team's upcoming first-round
playoff game vs. (most likely) the Jets. Jesse Chatman has been a
capable stand-in for Tomlinson at times this season (6/392/3) – he'll
probably see significant action this week.

22/100/1 – the rushing totals for the Raiders last week against the
K.C. defensive front. Over the past 4 weeks, the Chiefs have actually
held the opposition to right around 110 rushing yards per game, with
1.0 rushing scores given up per contest. That's on their season pace
of 113.1 rushing yards allowed per game, and consistent with the 17
rushing scores allowed over 15 games. The Chiefs are a
middle-of-the-road, what-you-see-is-what-you-get defense in this phase
of the game – not great, but not terrible, either.

The forecast for Qualcomm Stadium calls for a high of 62F with a low
of 44F and a 40% chance for rain. If the precipitation comes down hard
around game-time, footing could be treacherous and the ball will
become slick and hard to handle.

The Chargers list RB Jesse Chatman as probable to play (toe).

Look for Jesse Chatman to find some room to roam on Sunday – but don't
expect him to explode for a huge number of fantasy points against the
competent Chief's defensive front.



Washington's Ladell Betts vs. The Minnesota Defense (Neutral Matchup)

Clinton Portis' season has ended one game early due to a torn pectoral
muscle: "He could be out for a few weeks if it were [still] the
regular season" according to Bubba Tyer, the Redskins' director of
sports medicine. That means we'll see a lot of Ladell Betts in the
season finale (he had 13/43/0 rushing in relief of Portis last week,
and has put up 64/253/0 rushing this season). The Redskins are tied
for 28th in the NFL averaging 3.7 rushing yards per carry – there
hasn't been much room to roam along the line of scrimmage this season.

Minnesota gave up 34/102/1 to the Packers last week, and they have
averaged 130 rushing yards and .5 rushing TDs allowed per game over
the last 4 weeks – over the entire season, they've allowed 125.9
rushing yards and 14 rushing TDs in this phase of the game. The
Vikings are not a top run D this season, as you can see.

Aside from Portis, the Redskins list T Chris Samuels (ankle, probable).

The forecast for FedEx Field calls for a high of 61F and a low of 37F
with a 40% chance for rain. If the precipitation falls thickly at
game-time, the field could get sloppy and the ball will be slicker
than normal – conditions may not be optimum for the offensive units.

The Redskins field a weak attack, while the Vikings are suspect in
this phase of the game – that sounds pretty even to us.



Arizona's Emmitt Smith vs. The Tampa Bay Defense (Neutral Matchup)

Emmitt Smith didn't get much done vs. Seattle last week, managing
23/65/0 rushing during the game – he's been bothered by a bad toe in
the past few weeks. 60/189/1 rushing and 3/21/0 receiving are his
totals over the past 3 weeks (38th fantasy RB in the land in fantasy
points per game). The Cardinals haven't been powerful in this phase of
the game this season, averaging 3.5 yards per carry over the course of
15 games – they are also coming into this game without key OT Leonard
David, whose left knee has a torn meniscus that will require surgical
repair in the off-season.

Tampa allowed 36/141/0 to the Panthers last week (including 33/127/0
to Goings), which is consistent with their pace over the past 4 weeks,
when they've given away an average of 132 rushing yards and .2 TDs per
contest. The team ranks 22nd in the NFL this season, averaging 124.4
rushing yards allowed per game, with 8 TDs given up to date. The
Buccaneers aren't a feared team in this phase of the game this year.

Aside from Smith (toe, not listed) and Davis (out/IR), the Cardinals
are in good shape. Josh Scobey is probable despite a midweek illness.

The forecast for Sun Devil Stadium calls for a high of 66F with a low
of 46F and a 30% chance of precipitation – if the rains falls heavily
at game-time, the field could get sloppy and slick (this field sees
both college and pro games during the year, which means the turf has
greater wear-and-tear than most pro stadiums), while the ball would be
harder to handle than usual.

Two sub-par units face off in this game – neither has a clear edge
over the other coming into the contest.



New Orleans' Deuce McAllister vs. The Carolina Defense (Tough Matchup)

Deuce McAllister played a miserable game vs. the Carolina defenders
just a few weeks ago (week 13) – 7/22/0 rushing and 1/1/0 receiving
didn't help his fantasy owners at all. Since then, he's managed
84/300/2 rushing and 5/46/0 receiving to rank 16th among all fantasy
RBs in fantasy points per game over the last 3 weeks. McAllister
galloped for 29/128/0 vs. the Falcons last week – he comes into this
game with some momentum at his back.

Carolina put the clamps on Michael Pittman last week, with 13/46/0
allowed to the Buccaneers as a team in this phase. They've been
hard-nosed vs. the run in recent weeks, allowing an average of 82
rushing yards and .4 TDs per contest over the last 4 weeks – much
better than their season average of 116 rushing yards (with 17 rushing
scores allowed this season) would seem to indicate. They've been a
much stronger defense in the second half of the season, and are poised
to barrel into the playoffs if the team can pull out this victory.

New Orleans' OL has some hurting players – T Wayne Gandy (knee) is
listed as questionable. DE Kemp Rasmussen (neck) and DE Mike Rucker
(foot) are questionable for Carolina.

The forecast for Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte calls for a high
of 67F with a low of 48F and a 30% chance for precipitation – if the
rain comes down hard around game-time, footing and ball-handling will
be trickier than usual.

McAllister and the Saints must win this game – the story is the same
for the Panthers. Expect the 12th man to be in full throat at Bank of
America Stadium in a playoff atmosphere – the Panthers will make
things tough for McAllister and company on Sunday.



Philadelphia's Dorsey Levens and company vs. The Cincinnati Defense
(Tough Matchup)

Dorsey Levens did a lot with a little (10/44/0 rushing and 1/23/0
receiving), as the offense was only on the field for 18:16 thanks to
an ineffective passing attack. With little reason to risk their top
personnel in a meaningless, non-conference game, we expect to see a
majority of the Eagle's top talent on the bench again this week –
don't look for Levens to see many more touches this week than last,
which will limit his fantasy value.

Cincinnati allowed 28/142/1 to the Giants last week, and average 109
rushing yards and 1.0 rushing scores given up per contest over the
past 4 weeks. The team is ranked 25th in the NFL with an average of
132.1 rushing yards allowed per contest, although they do get
hard-headed in the red-zone (11 rushing scores given up in 15 games).
This unit is sub-par but not horrible in the rushing phase of the
game.

The Eagles list FB Thomas Tapeh (hip, out), G Jermane Mayberry
(triceps, questionable), and RB Reno Mahe (ankle, probable).
Cincinnati's DL is hurting, with DT Langston Moore (ankle, out), DE
Duane Clemons (knee, questionable), DT Greg Scott (ankle,
questionable) and DE Carl Powell (knee, probable) all on the initial
injury report.

The forecast for Lincoln Financial Field calls for a high of 61F and a
low of 36F with a 30% chance of precipitation. If the conditions are
soggy at game-time, footing and ball-handling could become issues in
this contest.

Levens' main challenge will be finding opportunities while burdened
with an ineffective passing attack – Cincy is sure to key on the
running game, daring Detmer and Blake to throw the ball. Advantage,
Cincinnati.



Cleveland's Lee Suggs vs. The Houston Defense (Tough Matchup)

Cleveland's offense is in horrible shape, but Lee Suggs has been a
bright spot since claiming the featured RB spot – he has 59/248/0
rushing with 2/2/0 receiving over the past 2 games. It's a sad
statement that 59/248/0 rushing is a "bright spot" for an offense, but
there's no denying that it's true of the late-season Browns.

Jacksonville managed 20/95/0 rushing in Fred Taylor's absence last
week, but couldn't get any scoring chances vs. Houston last week (the
Jags were shut out) – the Texans have allowed an average of 119
rushing yards per game over the last 4 weeks, but only .2 TDs per
outing – they've only given up 4 rushing scores all year long, which
is tops in the NFL. It's tough to put the ball into the end-zone vs.
the Texans in this phase of the game.

Cleveland lists T Joaquin Gonzalez (stomach) as probable to play. LB
Jamie Sharper (knee, probable) is the lone player on the Houston squad
that is listed as of Wednesday.

The forecast for Reliant Stadium calls for a high of 79F and a low of
64F, with a 50% chance for rain. If the weather looks nasty at
game-time, the retractable roof will be closed, so weather shouldn't
be a huge factor in this matchup.

Cleveland's offense is struggling, although Suggs has been able to
grind out some yards here and there in the past few weeks. Don't look
for much in the way of scoring from Suggs this week, and then you
won't be disappointed.



Tennessee's Antowain Smith vs. The Detroit Defense (Tough Matchup)

14/59/1 were Smith's totals last week – the Titan's offense melted
down against the Broncos, with only 20:36 of possession during the
game. Smith did as much as possible in his limited opportunities. Over
the past 3 weeks, he's managed 40/135/1 rushing with 7/79/0 receiving
(36th fantasy RB in the land). Many of the players along the OL are
hobbled by injury, and the team lost another starting lineman this
week when Jacob Bell discovered his right ACL was blown out during the
Denver game (he's headed for surgery and a long off-season of rehab on
his knee).

Detroit gave up 25/124/0 to the Bears last week (22/109/0 to Thomas
Jones) – they didn't dominate at the line of scrimmage. That's nothing
new for the Lions, who have allowed an average of 119.5 rushing yards
per game this season (17th in the NFL). Over the past 4 weeks, they've
been stouter, surrendering an average of 108 rushing yards per
contest, with .2 TDs allowed each game – the Lions' backbones are
stiffening as the season draws to a close.

The Titans' injury list this week includes T Jason Mathews (back); T
Fred Miller as questionable, while the Lions come into this game with
no new injuries to report on their side of the ball.

The forecast for the Coliseum calls for a high of 65F with a low of
50F and a 50% chance for precipitation. If the rain comes down thickly
at game time, the field could get sloppy and slow, and ball-handling
could become an issue as well.

Look for Smith to give his all – but don't expect much in the way of
scoring this week as the Titan's OL is a shambles. Advantage, Detroit.



Indianapolis' Edgerrin James and company vs. The Denver Defense (Tough Matchup)

The big question for Colts' owners this week is how much playing time
Edgerrin James is likely to see in what is essentially a meaningless
game for the Colts. We're guessing that the Colts will throw a healthy
dose of Dominic Rhodes and James Mungro into the mix from the very
beginning of the game, with James taking a seat on the bench shortly
after kickoff. Why risk your star RB in a meaningless contest when a
Super-Bowl berth beckons? Rhodes has 41/220/1 rushing this season (a
5.4 yards per carry average), while Mungro averages 5.0 yards per
reception (5/25/3 receiving, with 5/19/0 rushing this season) – the
duo will fill in for James capably.

Denver limited Antowain Smith to 14/59/1 last week (the Titan's
offense melted down, with only 20:36 time of possession all day long)
– they've been averaging only 95 rushing yards allowed per game (with
1.2 rushing scores given up) over the last 4 weeks. Although they are
the 6th ranked rush D in the land as far as yards allowed per game
(98.5), the team is on the high end of the NFL range as far as TDs
given up in this phase is concerned – the Broncos have allowed 16 in
15 games, while the NFL range is from a low of 4 TDs given up in 15
games to a high of 21 surrendered at this point in 2004.

Denver lists DE Trevor Pryce as questionable to play due to his
recovering back (disk surgery before the season) – he has yet to play
a meaningful snap in 2004. The Colts report G Rick DeMulling (ribs,
doubtful).

The forecast for Mile High Stadium calls for a high of 49F with a low
of 30F and a 20% chance for precipitation. Wind conditions are always
a concern at this time of year – keep an eye on the forecast as
game-time approaches, as weather in the high plains next to the
Rockies is always highly unpredictable at this time of year.

It's not easy to move the ball against this rush defense, but if a
team can penetrate to the red-zone they have a good shot at punching
in the TD – meanwhile, the Colts figure to put their "B" team on the
field for much of this game. With the 12th man behind the defense, we
see this as a tough matchup for the Colts' reserves.



Oakland's RBBC vs. The Jacksonville Defense (Tough Matchup)

The Justin Fargas/Zack Crockett/J.R. Redmond/Amos Zereoue combo
managed 22/100/1 amongst themselves last week, led by Fargas' 6/38/0
and Crockett's 10/32/1 (2/16/0 for Redmond and 4/14/0 for Zereoue).
Now THAT'S a running back by committee. Over the past 3 weeks,
Crockett has been the most valuable fantasy RB, lurking at #44 on the
RB board, with 23/79/2 rushing and 2/15/0 receiving. If one of these
guys is a starter on your fantasy squad and you are in the
championship round, then color us impressed! We'd look elsewhere for
your starting RBs this week if at all possible.

Jacksonville's once-feared rush D allowed a whopping 43/211/1 to the
Texans last weekend. They average 114 rushing yards and .5 TDs given
up per game over the last 4 weeks – the 211 yard debacle looks more
like an aberration than a trend, but realize that the Jags just
haven't been their usual dominant selves in this phase of the game
during stretches of 2004 (the team ranks 10th in the NFL allowing
108.1 rushing yards per game on average this season).

The Raiders are in good shape in this phase, while the Jaguars list DT
Marcus Stroud (knee, probable).

The forecast for Network Associates Coliseum calls for a high of 55F
with a low of 41F and a 30% chance for precipitation. If the moisture
falls thickly at game-time, footing and ball-handling could become
more tricky than usual.

Oakland has managed to generate the semblance of a rushing attack with
their committee, but it's a poor situation for fantasy running backs.
Jacksonville is usually much better than they were last week – we
think this will be a tough matchup for the Raider's many-headed
monster.



Kansas City's Larry Johnson vs. The San Diego Defense (Tough Matchup)

10/43/1 rushing with 1/7/0 receiving was Larry Johnson's tally vs. San
Diego in week 12 – of course, he was splitting time with the injured
Derrick Blaylock at that point in the season, something he hasn't had
to do the last few weeks (62/334/6 rushing and 6/62/0 receiving over
the last 3 weeks, 2nd among all fantasy RBs during that span). The
Chief's offense is as productive as ever heading into the season
finale (this teams' downfall has been and continues to be their
"junior varsity" quality defense).

San Diego is not very giving in this phase of the game, ranking 2nd in
the NFL allowing an average of 82.5 rushing yards per game this year
(with 14 rushing scores given away to date). The Chargers have been
slightly softer of late – but they still average less than 100 yards
allowed per game, with 95 rushing yards and 1.0 rushing scores given
away per game over the last 4 weeks. Last week, they were able to
limit Edgerrin James to 22/86/0 rushing (the Colts managed 25/104/0 as
a team). Teams just don't rack up impressive rushing totals vs. the
Chargers this season.

The Chargers list DT Eric Downing (knee, questionable). Kansas City
has Blaylock as questionable, along with T Chris Bober (toe) and RB
Omar Easy (knee). Johnson (toe) and T Willie Roaf (ankle) are listed
as probable.

The forecast for Qualcomm Stadium calls for a high of 62F with a low
of 44F and a 40% chance for rain. If the precipitation comes down hard
around game-time, footing could be treacherous and the ball will
become slick and hard to handle.

The Chiefs have pride on the line in this one (not to mention Johnson
continues to showcase what he can do), while the Chargers are going to
be looking towards the playoffs (and getting there in good health).
None-the-less, we expect the Chargers to make things tough on Johnson
this week if they can.



Minnesota's Michael Bennett/Onterrio Smith? vs. The Washington Defense
(Tough Matchup)

With Onterrio Smith sidelined due to a mid-week illness last Sunday,
Michael Bennett provided the Vikings with 17/92/0 rushing (24/131/0 as
a team last week) and 3/67/1 receiving in his first shot at the
featured role since returning from a pre-season knee injury. The
Vikings are second in the NFL averaging 4.8 rushing yards per carry –
this season, whether it's been Smith, Mewelde Moore or Bennett toting
the ball, this team has ground out big chunks of yardage in this phase
of the game. At midweek, we still aren't sure who will be the featured
back this week – the team loves Smith, but Bennett's strong play may
incline Tice to lean towards the veteran in this do-or-die situation.
According to coach Tice on 12/28/04 (St. Paul Pioneer Press): "This is
a really good type of defense for an Onterrio Smith, but at the same
time, Michael has a lot of confidence and a lot of juice right now."
Smith is also bothered by a bruised elbow he suffered in the game vs.
Detroit, according to reports out of Minneapolis. Smith was excused
from attending the workout on Monday, as well – yet coach Tice insists
that he isn't in the dog-house.

Washington's defense is very stout in this phase of the game – they
are the 3rd ranked rush D in the land this season, averaging 83.5
rushing yards allowed per game, with only 7 rushing scores allowed to
date (tied for 3rd-least in the NFL). Over the past 4 weeks, they've
given up an average of 71 rushing yards and .5 rushing TDs per
contest, holding Dallas' Julius Jones and company to 30/89/0 last
week. This defense rivals the Steelers for excellence in this phase of
the game.

The Vikings have a clean bill of health, while the Redskins list LB
LaVar Arrington (knee, out) and LB Marcus Washington (knee,
questionable).

The forecast for FedEx Field calls for a high of 61F and a low of 37F
with a 40% chance for rain. If the precipitation falls thickly at
game-time, the field could get sloppy and the ball will be slicker
than normal – conditions may not be optimum for the offensive units.

The Vikings field a strong offense, while the Redskins have an elite
run D – with home-field advantage at their back, the Redskins will
make things tough on the Vikings in this phase of the game.



St. Louis' Steven Jackson/Marshall Faulk vs. The New York Jets'
Defense (Tough Matchup)

Run the ball, control the clock, win the game. Do you wonder why the
Rams haven't stuck to this formula during 2004? We do. However, Mike
Martz has been extremely unpredictable regarding utilizing the running
game from week to week – it's hard for us to recommend either Jackson
or Faulk this week, despite the obvious fact that Jackson is the
team's best weapon in this phase of the game (and one of the best
weapons on the team, period). The bottom line is that Mike Martz
appears so enamored with his wide receivers/the mid-to-deep passing
game that we're never sure we'll see 30 or so handoffs/dump-off passes
to the backs in any given game. A running back can't rack up fantasy
points if he doesn't touch the ball. When Jackson does get the ball
(like last week, 24/148/1 rushing), good things happen for the Rams.
Though his knee is sore, the team believes that Jackson will be
available to play this week – but will coach Martz call his number?

38/114/0 was the New England tally in this phase after the dust
settled last week – the Jets' defenders did their job by containing
Corey Dillon to 29/89/0 rushing (with 2/12/0 receiving). Over the past
4 weeks, the Jets have kept the opposition to an average of 95 rushing
yards per game and .4 scores in this phase of the game – they are
playing hard-nosed defense. They are the league's 7th ranked rush D,
surrendering an average of 101.3 rushing yards and a total of 7
rushing scores to date over 15 games – it's tough to punch the ball
into the end-zone vs. this group.

St. Louis reports Jackson as probable to play, while Joey Goodspeed is
probable (shoulder). G Adam Timmerman has a sore knee (questionable).
The Jets DE John Abraham (knee) is questionable.

This game will be played in the Edward Jones Dome – weather won't be a factor.

Look for the Jets to make things tough on the Rams' backs in this
crucial game with playoff implications for both squads.



Pittsburgh's Duce Staley/Verron Haynes vs. The Buffalo Defense (Tough Matchup)

Any doubts we may have had about the Steeler's running game was
removed last week, as the team dominated their division-rivals the
Ravens (who field the league's 8th ranked rush D) – Pittsburgh jammed
42/183/0 down the Ravens' collective throat last week, with Jerome
Bettis leading the charge (27/117/0 rushing). This week, though, the
team is in the position of having cemented the first seed in the AFC,
with home-field advantage throughout the playoffs and nothing to gain
by risking Bettis, Roethlisberger or the rest of the team's key
players to injury – we probably won't see Bettis at all. Coach Cowher
said as much on Wednesday (Tribune-Review article by Jerry Dipole):
"Steelers coach Bill Cowher said he wouldn't be tempted to put injured
running back Jerome Bettis in the game Sunday, just to help him reach
1,000 yards. "I'm not looking at records," he said. "We have to do
what is in the best interest of this football team as we prepare our
quest for what everybody wants, and that's a championship. You can't
deviate from that just to serve the individual purposes of players…"
The team wants to get Staley (if his hamstring will allow him to play)
and Verron Haynes (47/250/0 rushing with 18/142/2 receiving this
season) some reps in this game. Staley has put up 184/809/1 rushing
and 6/55/0 receiving in his appearances this season, but hasn't played
for 6 out of the last 8 games, including the 3 most recent contests vs
NYG and Baltimore (he had 17/51/0 and 16/51/0 rushing in weeks 13 and
14 before the injury flared up again).

Buffalo plays very stout rush defense, allowing an average of 96.5
yards per game in this phase, with only 6 rushing scores allowed all
season. They have been even better during the past 4 weeks, averaging
86 rushing yards and .4 rushing TDs per contest. Last week, they
drilled the 49ers 41-7 while allowing 28/98/1 rushing to San
Francisco.

The Bills are in good shape, while the Steelers list RB Jerome Bettis
as doubtful (ankle), Staley is questionable, and Haynes is probable
(knee).

The forecast for Ralph Wilson Stadium calls for a high of 44F with a
low of  30F and a 20% chance for precipitation – that's a really nice
forecast for upstate New York in the month of December, folks.

This game will be a tough test for the Steelers' running backs.



Buffalo's Willis McGahee/Shaud Williams vs. The Pittsburgh Defense
(Tough Matchup)

Willis McGahee exploded for 15/102/2 rushing last week, and Shaud
Williams added 17/93/1, as the Bills slapped the 49ers around for
36/226/3 (a 6.3 ypc average) last week. They come into the final game
of the season red-hot in this phase of the game. McGahee has 53/232/4
rushing and 5/27/0 receiving in the last 4 weeks to rank 9th among all
fantasy backs in fantasy points per game. 8 of McGahee's 11 TDs this
season have been scored in the last 5 games as the Bills make their
run at the playoffs. We expect to see McGahee back in the full-time
role this week, with Williams available for change-of-pace duty and
when McGahee needs a rest.

Pittsburgh's rush D ranks first in the NFL allowing an average of 80.2
rushing yards and a total of 6 rushing scores this season. They are
playing up to that average in recent weeks, allowing 85 rushing yards
per game during the last 4 weeks (with .4 rushing scores given up
during that span). Last week, they severely limited the Ravens' backs,
giving up 17/43/1 to Lewis and Taylor (21/71/1 to the Ravens as a
team). This squad is playing at the top of their game right now.

The Steelers have been doing without LBs Kendrell Bell (groin,
questionable) and Clark Haggans (groin, doubtful). DE Brett Keisel has
a sore hamstring (probable). RB Travis Henry (ankle) and G Chris
Villarial (abdomen) are questionable.

The forecast for Ralph Wilson Stadium calls for a high of 44F with a
low of  30F and a 20% chance for precipitation – that's a really nice
forecast for upstate New York in the month of December, folks.

The Steelers will make McGahee and company sweat for every yard – this
will be a tough game for the Bill's backs.



Miami's Sammy Morris/Travis Minor vs. The Baltimore Defense (Bad Matchup)

Sammy Morris over the past 3 weeks: 35/132/3 rushing with 9/51/0
receiving (26th fantasy RB in the land during that span). Travis Minor
in that same span: 24/81/1 rushing, with 3/6/0 receiving (47th ranked
fantasy RB in the land). Last week, Morris had 17/69/0 against
Cleveland (arguably the worst rush D in the NFL), while Minor chipped
in 6/30/0 rushing (3/5/0 and 2/4/0 receiving, respectively). If those
were their numbers against the Brown's demoralized and exhausted unit,
what do you suppose Morris/Minor's ceiling will be against Baltimore?

Against Baltimore's 8th ranked rush defense (allowing an average of
105.6 rushing yards per game this season, with 8 TDs surrendered in 15
games), other, better teams have managed 109 rushing yards per game
and .6 TDs per contest over the past 4 weeks. Last week, Pittsburgh
put up 42/183/0 – but Miami's squad is no Pittsburgh, folks.

Miami is in decent shape in this phase of the game, although C Seth
McKinney is listed (knee, probable). Baltimore lists DT Ma'ake
Kemoeatu (calf), LB Ray Lewis (wrist), and LB Bart Scott (knee) as
questionable, while DE Anthony Weaver is probable (back).

The forecast for M&T Bank Stadium calls for a high of 62F and a low of
41F with a 30% chance for rain – field conditions could be less than
optimal if the weather turns soggy around game time.

This is not the week to start a Dolphin back.



San Francisco's Kevan Barlow vs. The New England Defense (Bad Matchup)

The 49ers have struggled to move the ball in this phase of the game
all year (the team averages 3.5 rushing yards per carry, tied for 30th
in the NFL). Kevan Barlow has suffered through a benching and numerous
attacks in the local press (he has managed only 219/719/7 rushing with
33/201/0 receiving to date), but managed to make something happen vs.
the Bills last week (15/72/1 rushing last week, the TD coming in
garbage time after the game was at 41-0 in favor of Buffalo). He just
hasn't lived up to expectations (the entire 49ers offense has been
disappointing this year).

New England's defense is very tough in this phase of the game, ranking
4th in the NFL averaging 95.8 rushing yards allowed per game (with 9
TDs surrendered to date). Over the last 4 weeks, the team averages 74
rushing yards and .8 TDs per contest, including last week's total of
18/46/0 given up to Curtis Martin – even the best teams have a hard
time moving the ball on the ground vs. the Patriots' defensive front.

The Patriots list DE Richard Seymour as doubtful (knee), LB Matt
Chatham (hamstring) is questionable. RB Fred Beasley is probable to
play (neck).

The forecast for Gillette Stadium calls for a high of 55F with a low
of 31F and a 20% chance for precipitation. 55F will feel almost
tropical to the fans in Foxboro Massachusetts.

The Patriots should dominate the weak 49ers this week.