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Rushing Matchups - Week 2
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Posted 9/16 by Mark Wimer and Joe Bryant, Exclusive to Footballguys.com
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Hi Folks,
Here's our look at the Rushing Matchups for this week.
PLEASE NOTE: This does NOT replace the Cheatsheet ranking. The
Cheatsheet rankings are the final say on where we see a player for
that week. The Matchup Breakdowns are simply one more tool in the box
when it comes to helping choose your lineup.
Also note, just because a player has a "bad" matchup, it does NOT mean
he's not a starter in your league. If Priest Holmes is playing the
toughest rush defense in the league, that just means he's got a tough
matchup that week. He's also your starter. In the same way, if the
worst RB on your roster has a "great" matchup, that doesn't
necessarily mean you start him, it just means he'll likely fare better
this week than he normally would.
Bottom line, the cheatsheets are the final word.
Let's jump to it.
Buffalo's Travis Henry vs. The Oakland Defense (Good Matchup)
Buffalo's Travis Henry was not exceptional in his first fantasy outing
of the season, seeing plenty of work but little success (23/75/0
rushing and 3/9/0 receiving) before exiting the game with cramps.
Jacksonville did a great job defending the rush, allowing an average
of 2.6 yards per carry during the game, but even so it was not an
auspicious beginning for the 2004 campaign on Henry's part. Willis
McGahee was adequate but not spectacular in relief of Henry (9/31/0
rushing).
Oakland's rush defense limped into 2004, coughing up 3 short plunge
TDs to Jerome Bettis in week 1 (and 107 rushing yards to the
Steelers). Considering that the unit was dead last in the NFL last
year at rush D (allowing an average of 156.9 rushing yards per game),
the 107 yards allowed was a marginal improvement - but nobody will
mistake the Raiders for a stout run defense just yet. DL Tyler Brayton
did turn in a nice IDP performance last week with 4 solo tackles, 1
sack and 2 passes defensed, and LB Travian Smith was 3rd among fantasy
LBs with 7 solo tackles, 4 assists, 1 forced fumble and 1 pass
defensed.
Oakland has some injury concerns at LB: Sam Williams (shoulder,
doubtful), Napoleon Harris (knee, questionable), and DeLawrence Grant
(knee, probable).
The forecast for Network Associates Coliseum in Oakland calls for a
high of 71F and a low of 54F, with a 10% chance for precipitation.
That sounds like great football weather to us.
Oakland is a lot softer than Jacksonville vs. the rush, and Henry has
proven his toughness and ability many times. Advantage, Buffalo.
Carolina's Stephen Davis vs. The Kansas City Defense (Good Matchup)
Stephen Davis had a rough outing vs. the Packers this past Monday,
rushing for 9/26/0 and catching 1 pass for 22 yards. There just wasn't
much running room to be found anywhere, as the team put up a mere
13/38/0 rushing on the night - an uncharacteristically low number of
attempts for the Panthers. Nobody is going to find many fantasy points
in this phase of the game if the coaching staff abandons the run to
that extent regularly. Their new OL isn't jelling as far as
run-blocking is concerned at this early stage of 2004.
Kansas City always helps running backs find ways to succeed, though.
They were 30th in the league last season allowing an average of 146.5
rushing yards per contest (18 rushing scores allowed) and started off
2004 by doing even worse, coughing up 202 yards and 2 TDs to Quentin
Griffin and company last week. In IDP circles, DL Vonnie Holliday was
6th among linemen with 4 solo tackles, 1 sack and 1 pass defensed - at
least someone on the D was working hard!
Unfortunately for KC, Holliday injured his groin during the game
(questionable), and fellow DE Eric Hicks (ankle, not listed Wednesday)
was also injured. If neither guy can go on Sunday, depth becomes a
problem for the Chiefs. Several LBs are also nicked up (LB Kenyaron
Fox (quadriceps) and Kawika Mitchell (ankle), both questionable).
Carolina reports no significant injuries.
The forecast for Arrowhead Stadium calls for a high of 84F and a low
of 69F with 0% chance of precipitation. A fine day to play a game of
football is on tap.
Davis and company are likely to see a good bit more than 13 carries in
week 2, and against a soft defense like the Chiefs they should
experience more success than last week. Advantage, Carolina.
Kansas City's Priest Holmes vs. The Carolina Defense (Good Matchup)
Priest Holmes went on being Priest Holmes last week against the
Broncos. 26/151/3 rushing on the day. Start him if you've got him.
Carolina sports a defense with a fearsome reputation, but the unit was
exposed by the Packers as vulnerable last week (47/152/2 rushing on
the night for the Packers) - they were tough yards, but they were
there right up the gut. Last season, the Panthers allowed only 10
rushing scores all season, and averaged 107.6 yards allowed per game -
Green Bay laid out a blue print for the rest of the NFL to follow
against these guys during 2004. Despite the huge number of rushes the
Panthers dealt with last week, no Carolina DL or LB made the top ten
among his IDP peers.
Neither team has significant injuries to report, although OLG Brian
Waters is probable due to a biceps injury.
The forecast for Arrowhead Stadium calls for a high of 84F and a low
of 69F with 0% chance of precipitation. A fine day to play a game of
football is on tap.
Priest Holmes has explosive fantasy points potential each week, no
matter who he is facing. Carolina was shoved around by the Packers
last week, and needs to regroup. This looks like a good matchup for
Holmes in the friendly confines of Arrowhead Stadium.
Green Bay's Ahman Green vs. The Chicago Defense (Good Matchup)
Ahman Green sucked it up and pounded the ball right into the Carolina
Panther's teeth last week, with good results (33/119/2 rushing and
2/-3/1 receiving). He was spelled "between the 40s" by his backup
Najeh Davenport, but was the focus of the offense when the team got
into the red-zone. That's good news for his fantasy owners, because
the rests between the 40's will impact his potential minimally and the
scoring opportunities are still clearly abundant for Green. He looks
like he's in midseason form right now. And with Davenport limited with
a hamstring, Green might see even more work.
Chicago did a good job containing the Lions' backs last week, holding
them to 30/77/0 rushing (2.6 yards per carry). The Bears were in the
middle of the NFL pack in this phase during 2003, with an average of
116.6 rushing yards per game allowed (16th in the NFL). They have done
some good work in this phase leading up to 2004, obviously.
LB Brian Urlacher is still bothered by a sore hamstring (not listed),
but didn't miss a snap on Sunday. LB Marcus Reese is out due to his
hamstring injury. Green Bay's squad is in decent shape, reporting
Najeh Davenport as questionable (hamstring) and T Kevin Barry (ankle,
probable).
The forecast for Lambeau field calls for a high of 77F and a low of
57F with a 20% chance of precipitation. That's some fine football
weather, folks.
Green is one of the elite running backs in the NFL. Chicago is clearly
improving in this area, and after this week we'll know how far they
have come. Home field advantage swings the pendulum to the Packers in
this matchup.
Cleveland's William Green/Lee Suggs vs. The Dallas Defense (Good
Matchup)
William Green did some good things with the ball against a tough
Ravens' D last week, and is making his case for the starter while
Suggs recovers from his neck injury. 22/65/0 rushing and 4/27/0
receiving is not a fantasy bonanza, but it's a solid effort
considering Green pulled those numbers out against the Ravens.
Dallas was shredded by the Vikings last week in both phases of the
game, and didn't look anything like the 2003 defensive team that
limited teams to an average of 253.5 total offense per week (89.1
rushing yards allowed on average). The Vikings racked up 136 yards
rushing against Dallas last week, and they made it look easy. Dallas
may be heading for some white-water on defense if they can't turn
things around quickly.
Suggs is listed as questionable due to his neck injury. C Melvin
Fowler has a sore ankle (questionable). Dallas' D is in good shape in
this phase of the game.
The forecast for Texas Stadium calls for a high of 91F and a low of
71F with a 0% chance of precipitation. An excellent game-day forecast,
that is.
Cleveland looks like an offense that is beginning to jell, and the
Cowboys look just plain awful. Advantage, Cleveland.
Jacksonville's Fred Taylor vs. The Denver Defense (Good Matchup)
Fred Taylor is an all-world talent, but the Bills deploy an
upper-echelon defense, so he had a quiet first game (17/61/0 rushing,
0/0/0 receiving). There is some worries about the passing game getting
a jump-start, but we're certain that Taylor is going to get a lot of
chances to make good things happen this week.
Denver may have won the game on Sunday night, but they were soft on
Priest Holmes and company, allowing 167 rushing yards and 3 scores on
the evening. That's not good run defense, folks. Considering that the
Broncos were 7th in the league during 2003, allowing an average of
100.3 rushing yards per game with 11 rushing scores surrendered all
season, it's indicative of a very poor performance. Although to be
fair, a lot of that was Priest Holmes.
Both teams come into the game in reasonably good health, although the
Broncos have some guys as questionable (LB Patrick Chukwurah, back; DT
Luther Eliss, shoulder) and probable (LB Terry Pierce, knee; DT Trevor
Pryce, back; and LB D.J. Williams, ankle). RB Chris Fuamatu Ma'afala
is questionable due to a foot injury.
The forecast for AllTel Stadium calls for a high of 88F and a low of
74F with a 20% chance of precipitation. It should be a good day to
play football.
Taylor should be able to rebound nicely in week 2, playing at home
against a run defense that struggled last week. Advantage, Jaguars.
Houston's Domanick Davis vs. The Detroit Defense (Good Matchup)
Houston's offense played fairly well in this phase of the game against
San Diego in week 1, especially Domanick Davis (21/87/2 and 5/70/0) -
except for the 2 fumbles that he butter-fingered onto the turf. Davis
needs to eliminate those ball handling errors if he is to become an
elite fantasy back (he probably would have had at least one more TD if
not for the drops). Tony Hollings only saw 3 carries and 1 pass in the
game, so rumors of the 60-40 workload split circulated by the team
during pre-season are not materializing into reality so far.
Detroit got shoved around by the Bears during week one, allowing 128
rushing yards and 2 scores to their division rivals. As the Lions gave
away and average of 111.4 rushing yards per game last season (15th in
the NFL) and 14 rushing scores, their mediocre performance last week
comes as no surprise. They did produce some quality IDP numbers,
though, with Shaun Rogers (2nd DL last week) garnering 3 solo tackles,
1 assist, 1 sack and a fumble recovery and James Hall (5th best
fantasy DL) contributing 5 solo tackles, 1 assist, 1 sack, and 1
forced fumble.
James Hall fractured his left thumb last week (questionable), and LB
Boss Bailey remains out (knee), but otherwise the teams are in decent
health. Reserve RB Moran Norris (shoulder, probable) is listed by
Houston.
This game will be played in the air-conditioned comfort of Ford Field,
so weather isn't a factor.
Davis should enjoy a solid outing against the average Detroit rush
defense.
Tennessee's Chris Brown vs. The Indianapolis Defense (Good Matchup)
Chris Brown tore up the Miami defense in the opening game of the
season, slashing his way to a 16/100/0 rushing 1/5/0 receiving first
half - and then sat the rest of the game out due to a gimpy ankle. Oh,
for what might have been... the team ended the day with 36/182/0
rushing, a solid first outing to begin the 2004 campaign (although
Antowain Smith needs to hold onto the ball much better than he did).
Indianapolis contained Corey Dillon in their first game of the season,
but didn't shut him down (15/86/0), and ended the day allowing 82 net
rushing yards and 0 scores - a good but not great effort on the part
of the Indy defense. They were the 20th ranked unit in this category
during the 2003 season, allowing an average of 123.8 rushing yards per
game, so they did make the first step in the right direction to open
the season.
Tennessee lost LG Zach Piller to a ruptured biceps in the opener,
which causes a concern for their OL. Brown is listed as questionable
due to the ankle injury. So keep an eye on that ankle as the week
progresses. The Indianapolis defense is in good shape, listing only LB
Gilbert Gardner (ankle, doubtful) on this squad.
The forecast for The Coliseum in Nashville calls for a high of 79F and
a low of 63F with a 20% chance for rain. Although keep an eye out to
see if Hurricane Ivan causes much trouble northward. Severe rain is a
possibility.
Brown looked pretty sharp in the opener, while the Colts were mediocre
in this phase. At home, we give the nod to the Titans.
New England's Corey Dillon vs. The Arizona Defense (Good Matchup)
Corey Dillon was not the focus of the Patriot's offense in week 1, for
reasons of both strategy (who expected a spread passing attack on the
entire first series?) and because the Patriots only had 2 RBs active
they wanted to be conservative with Dillon (nobody else around to
carry the ball if he went down). Dillon was effective in his limited
opportunities, with 15/87/0 (a 5.7 ypc average, including a nice long
run of 38 yards) rushing. He wasn't utilized in the passing game at
all during week 1, a knock against him in point-per-reception leagues.
Arizona was slashed up by Marshall Faulk and company, allowing 176
yards rushing in the game (but 0 scores). The averaged 119.7 rushing
yards allowed per game in 2003 (19th in the NFL), meaning that the 176
was atypically bad for this unit. It was a tough way to start the 2004
season.
DE Calvin Pace suffered a stinger in the loss to St. Louis - he's
probable to play. LB Raynoch Thompson has a sore knee (doubtful), as
does LB Levar Fisher (doubtful). New England's Kevin Faulk has a knee
injury that is not being attended to by the team physicians as he
deals with his mother's passing and the aftermath of a death in the
family. He's not too likely to be available this weekend, given the
circumstances.
The forecast for Sun Devil Stadium calls for a high of 95F and a low
of 67F with a 0% chance for rain. In the desert heat,
dehydration/cramping will be battled by both teams.
Dillon has game, while the Cardinals are soft and hurting at LB.
Advantage, New England.
Arizona's Emmitt Smith vs. The New England Defense (Good Matchup)
Emmitt Smith may not have played much during pre-season, but now that
it counts he is making some fantasy points for his owners. 16/87/1
rushing in the first game of the season is not going to put many teams
over the top, but he's worth considering if you have early injury
issues on your squad, for example. The Cardinals' offense wasn't
nearly as soft against the Rams as many expected, and Smith saw some
decent running room at points last week.
New England, in contrast, was surprisingly weak against the rush last
week, surrendering 202 rushing yards and 1 TD to the Colts - that's
113 more yards in a game than they averaged back in 2003 (89.6), so
there is reason to worry if you have their DT on your squad. They look
to be seriously missing Ted Washington. Tedy Bruschi turned in a
top-ten fantasy LB performance (6th) with 5 solo tackles, 7 assists, 1
interception and 1 fumble in the week 1 game.
Both teams come into this game in reasonably good health.
The forecast for Sun Devil Stadium calls for a high of 95F and a low
of 67F with a 0% chance for rain. In the desert heat,
dehydration/cramping will be battled by both teams.
Emmitt Smith seems to have some gas left in his tank, and the Patriots
are unexpectedly soft to start 2004. In the desert heat, the Cardinals
have a big home-field advantage (if not big crowds) so we like the
Cardinals to have an edge in this one.
New York Jets' Curtis Martin vs. The San Diego Defense (Good Matchup)
Curtis Martin blew out of the backfield like a hurricane last week,
blasting the Bengals for 29/196/1 rushing and 3/7/1 receiving. His OL
looked solid, totally unlike the early 2003 version of that unit, and
Martin had the pop into the hole that he used to display. He looks
very, very good right now. He'll be outperforming his draft slot all
season if he can keep up the good work.
San Diego was mediocre in their opener, allowing 110 rushing yards and
2 scores to the Texans. It was an adequate but uninspired performance
on the rush defense's part. Last season, they averaged 138.6 rushing
yards allowed per game, which makes 110 something of an improvement
(it was good enough for the win, anyway). Steve Foley was an IDP force
at LB, with 4 solo tackles, 2 assists, 1 interception, 1 fumble
recovery and 2 passes defensed. Whew!
DE Adrian Dingle hurt his quad in the opener (out) and DE Dave Ball
hurt his shoulder (questionable). LB Ben Leber suffered a foot injury,
as well (probable). LBs Carlos Polk (shoulder) and Matt Wilhelm
(shoulder) are probable to play. There are some question-marks along
the defensive front to start week 2. The Jets are in good shape.
The forecast for Qualcomm Stadium calls for a high of 74F and a low of
60F with 0% chance for precipitation. Sounds like perfect football
weather is on tap.
Martin and the Jets are red hot right now, while the Chargers are
banged up and not playing at the top of their game. Advantage, Jets.
San Diego's LaDainian Tomlinson vs. The New York Jets' Defense (Good
Matchup)
LaDainian Tomlinson last week: 26/121/1 rushing, 3/-4/0 receiving.
While we'd like to see more positive results in the passing phase of
the game, let's be honest - if you have him, you're going to start him
every week, aren't you? So would we.
The Jets were adequate in this phase against the Bengals, and
contained Rudi Johnson for the most part, ending the day with 113
rushing yards allowed and 1 TD surrendered. It was a much better
performance than the norm in 2003 (average of 143.4 rushing yards
allowed in 2003) - it looks like the Jets are moving in the right
direction in this phase of the game. Sam Cowart was the 2nd best
fantasy LB last week, with 12 solo tackles, 2 assists, and 1 forced
fumble.
Both units enjoy reasonably good health at this point in the season,
although the Jets list DT Josh Evans (back) and DE Bryan Thomas
(hamstring) as probable for Sunday.
The forecast for Qualcomm Stadium calls for a high of 74F and a low of
60F with 0% chance for precipitation. Sounds like perfect football
weather is on tap.
Tomlinson is an every-week starter, and has great prospects against
the mediocre Jets' defense.
San Francisco's Kevan Barlow vs. The New Orleans Defense (Good
Matchup)
Kevan Barlow was a disappointment to his fantasy owners last week.
19/76/0 rushing and 1/15/0 receiving was not what they had when they
drafted Barlow as a potential game-breaking fantasy back. We say:
don't panic. The offense struggled due to shoulder injuries to both
QBs, allowing the Falcons to concentrate on Barlow. Brandon Lloyd
didn't do much in his 13 opportunities (5/29/0), which contributed to
the lack of running room. There has to be a credible passing attack to
get the D to back off the line of scrimmage. We believe that will come
along as the 49ers youngsters get game experience.
New Orleans was battered by the Seahawks for 169 rushing yards and 2
TDs in the opener, and that was partly due to the absence of DE Darren
Howard (neck, questionable) who sat out the game. Also, DT Brian Young
left the game with a hip flexor and did not return to action
(probable). The Saints were not impressive during their 2003 campaign,
either (140.1 rushing yards allowed per game, 27th in the league), so
the soft rush D is no big surprise. Charles Grant did manage to appear
in the top ten among fantasy DL last week, with 6 tackles, and 1 pass
defensed (8th best DL last week).
The Saint's DL is less deep than they'd like due to injuries on the
DL, and Barlow hopes that lead-blocker FB Fred Beasley can get back on
the field this week (questionable). C Jeremy Newberry has a sore knee
(questionable).
This game is to be played in the air-conditioning in the Superdome (if
Hurricane Ivan cooperates). Weather is a factor, but not regarding
game-play.
Barlow and his compatriots are still learning to execute the San
Francisco offense - the soft New Orleans' defensive front should make
things easier for Barlow this week, though.
Washington's Clinton Portis vs. The New York Giants' Defense (Good
Matchup)
Division rivalries are intense in the NFC East, and this is a storied
clash - both teams come in to renew the rivalry with new coaching
staffs, new players, and a new outlook on their prospects.
Clinton Portis tore up the ballyhooed Tampa Bay defense, taking it to
the house on his first carry from scrimmage, a 64 yard romp right up
the middle of the field. He is a threat to score every time he touches
the ball, and that is no exaggeration. His 29/148/1 rushing and 4/15/0
receiving slotted him in the top ten among fantasy RB's at #9.
The Giants' defense rolled over and played dead for the Eagles,
allowing 141 rushing yards (0 TDs) in the opening defeat of the
season. They are a unit that was mediocre last year (119.5 rushing
yards allowed per game, on average) and don't look much improved, if
at all, coming into 2004. Michael Strahan was his usual dominant self,
notching 4 solo tackles and a sack for 10th among all fantasy DL last
week.
The squads aren't in too much distress in the injury department. LB
Carlos Emmons is questionable for the Giants (groin).
The forecast for Giants' Stadium calls for a high of 75F with a low of
60F and a 60% chance for rain. If the rain comes down hard at game
time, the field may be slick and sloppy making footing/ball handling
an issue.
The Redskins have an all-world back at their disposal, while the
Giants are a sub-par run defense. Advantage, Redskins.
Philadelphia's Brian Westbrook vs. The Minnesota Defense (Good Matchup)
Two of week one's most potent offenses meet in this MNF game - it
looks like it will be a barn-burner.
Brian Westbrook was great in his first game against the hated Giants,
rushing for 119 yards on only 17 carries, and adding 3/42/0 through
receptions. It was a fine way to begin the Eagles' ground assault in
2004, and landed Westbrook at #15 on the RB board last week. One big
problem came out of the game, though, as first-round pick and starting
RG Shawn Andrews broke his leg and is now out of the season. Jermane
Mayberry slides into his spot, but the line has lost a valuable player
and depth is now a problem - so much so that the team has OL Ian Allen
in camp to see if he can fit in as a backup.
Minnesota easily contained the motley crew of Dallas RBs last week,
allowing only 71 rushing yards and 1 TD to the committee. The Vikings
were 17th in the NFL allowing an average of 117.4 rushing yards per
game last year, so the strong play against Dallas is a good sign.
Minnesota's defense is in good health in this phase. So is the Eagle's
OL.
The forecast for Lincoln Financial Field calls for a high of 76F and a
low of 62F with a 30% chance for rain. With the remnants of Hurricane
Ivan hanging around, though, who can say what conditions will look
like on Monday right now? Keep an eye on that situation as roster
deadlines approach later in the week.
Westbrook is a much better back than any of the players Dallas threw
at the Vikings last week, but his OL is in transition to a new
alignment of players. Minnesota is playing the run well right now - we
think this looks pretty even going into the MNF matchup.
Minnesota's Onterrio Smith vs. The Philadelphia Defense (Good Matchup)
Two of week one's most potent offenses meet in this MNF game - it
looks like it will be a barn-burner.
Moe Williams sprained an ankle (questionable) in the fourth quarter
last week, and that probably means that second-year pro Onterrio Smith
will be asked to carry the load against the Eagles this week (Michael
Bennett continues to be sidelined by a knee injury). Smith was the
10th best fantasy RB last week, on the strength of 15/76/0 rushing and
1/63/1 receiving. Mewelde Moore had 1/8/0 and 1/8/0 rushing and
receiving last week, and it doesn't look like he'll step in much
during week 2.
Philadelphia's defense allowed a lot of yardage to the Giants late in
their win on Sunday, ending the day giving up 170 rushing yards and 2
TDs to their victims. The Eagles were the 22nd ranked rush defense
last season (129.4 rushing yards per game on average), so defense has
not been a strength in the recent past. It doesn't look like the
Eagles are going to change that anytime soon.
LB Nate Wayne missed the week 1 game due to a hamstring injury
(probable). DE Jevon Kearse tweaked an ankle in week 1, but he's fine
(not listed). DT Paul Grasmanis (Achilles, doubtful), DE Hugh Douglas
(shoulder, probable), LB Dhani Jones (ankle, probable), DT Sam Rayburn
(ankle, probable), and LB Ike Reese (knee, probable) are listed on the
Wednesday injury report.
The forecast for Lincoln Financial Field calls for a high of 76F and a
low of 62F with a 30% chance for rain. With the remnants of Hurricane
Ivan hanging around, though, who can say what conditions will look
like on Monday right now? Keep an eye on that situation as roster
deadlines approach later in the week.
Onterrio Smith has the luxury of running behind one of the best OLs in
the NFL, and the Eagles' rush defense is not a top unit. Advantage,
Vikings.
Atlanta's Warrick Dunn vs. The St. Louis Defense (Good Matchup)
Warrick Dunn played a solid game last week, punching in two scores and
gaining 63 yards on 19 carries. He did not catch a pass last week,
surprisingly, but otherwise he was everything you need in a starting
RB. T.J. Duckett looks like an afterthought in this system (2/6/0
rushing, 1/1/0 receiving).
St. Louis was challenged by the ageless Emmitt Smith last week, and
yielded a TD and 103 yards to the Cardinals' backs to start 2004. They
only gave up 9 rushing scores during 2003, making Smith's score
something of a rarity. The Rams allowed an average of 123.8 rushing
yards per game in 2003, so 103 in a game was a slight improvement in
that department.
St. Louis lost some valuable LBs to injury last week, and they may be
out for a while. Pisa Tinoisamoa dislocated his right shoulder
(probable), and Trev Faulk tore a hamstring (doubtful). LB Tommy
Polley has sore ribs (probable). They will have issues with depth at
the position this week, most likely. DT Jimmy Kennedy remains
sidelined (foot, out). Atlanta's OL is depleted coming into the game,
listing T Kevin Shaffer (knee/ribs, questionable), while G Michael
Moore (shoulder, IR) is done for the season.
This game is to be played in the Georgia Dome, so weather is not a
factor.
Dunn is a good NFL back in a system suited to his talents, playing at
home vs. an average run defense with injury issues at LB - Atlanta has
a slight edge in this phase of the game.
St. Louis' Marshall Faulk vs. The Atlanta Defense (Neutral Matchup)
Marshall Faulk looked like the back he was during the Super-Bowl
years, running with power and explosiveness to rack up 22/128/0
rushing and 2/17/0 receiving on what was, for him, a renaissance
performance. For now, he put up the 17th ranked fantasy RB performance
of the week, a respectable beginning to 2004. Steven Jackson gained
chunks of ground in his chances (7/50/0) but put the ball on the
carpet with his first carry.
Atlanta's defense held down the 49ers last week, stymieing Kevan
Barlow's coming out party - the 49ers managed a mere 93 rushing yards
and 0 TDs as a team (not what they had in mind). It was a vast
improvement for a unit that averaged 144.3 rushing yards allowed per
game last season - and they gave up 21 rushing scores last season, as
well. Things are looking up for the defense in this phase of the
game.. Two Falcon DL were in the top ten among IDP DL last week:
Patrick Kerney had 3 solo tackles, 1 assist, and 5 passes defensed,
while compatriot Rod Coleman had 4 solo tackles and a sack. Good plays
all the way around.
G Tom Nutten (toe, doubtful) and C Andy McCollum (ankle, questionable)
are listed for the Rams. LB Jamie Duncan (pectoral) and DE Karon Riley
(groin) are out for Atlanta.
This game is to be played in the Georgia Dome, so weather is not a
factor.
Faulk is a great back when healthy (he is), and he loves to run on
turf. Although Atlanta looks improved, they will still be challenged
by the explosive Rams.
Baltimore's Jamal Lewis vs. The Pittsburgh Defense (Neutral Matchup)
The big problem for Lewis is that two key players on the OL are out
with injuries right now (C Mike Flynn has a shoulder/collarbone injury
(out), and OT Jonathan Ogden is battling a balky knee (questionable).
Also, Ogden's replacement at LT, Ethan Brooks, hurt his knee in the
loss to Cleveland and is out. All the attrition on the OL means
limited opportunities for Lewis to break out past the line of
scrimmage. 20/57/0 rushing (vs. Cleveland, no less) is something
nobody expected before last Sunday's game. That's why they play the
games, folks. For now, it looks like Lewis and company have a problem
on their hands.
Pittsburgh fielded the 3rd-best IDP DL last week, when Aaron Smith
racked up 3 solo tackles, 1 assist, a sack, a forced fumble, and a
fumble recovery. LB Clark Haggans was big, too, with 5 solo tackles, 2
sacks, 2 forced fumbles and a pass defensed. They were tough on
Oakland's backs, too, limiting them to 61 yards rushing and 0 TDs.
There is reason to believe the Steelers are much better than their
12th-ranked rush D in 2003 (108.5 rushing yards allowed per game), at
least in the early going.
ILB Kendrell Bell missed last week's game with groin and shoulder
injuries, and he is questionable for this week. DE Chris Hoke has a
staph infection in his arm and is doubtful. The Ravens' injury woes
are detailed above.
The forecast for M&T Bank Stadium calls for a high of 79F and a low of
67F with a 60% chance of precipitation. If the rain comes down hard at
game time, the ball and field could get slick.
The Ravens are known for a strong ground game, but they got off to a
sputtering start. The Steelers intend to keep that engine in idle if
they can - we call this a neutral matchup.
New Orleans' Deuce McAllister vs. The San Francisco Defense (Neutral
Matchup)
Deuce McAllister struggled along with his compatriots in the opener
against the Seahawks, notching a disappointing 29th-ranked fantasy
performance in week 1, with 16/57/0 rushing and 2/20/0 receiving. The
Saints never seemed able to put together a coordinated effort, and the
passing game was erratic most of the day. McAllister found running
room hard to find in such conditions. McAllister voiced concern about
the single back sets and this week the Saints look to add a full back
on more plays. We think this will help.
San Francisco, meanwhile, was dropping their opener to the
Warrick-Dunn-powered Falcons, allowing 95 rushing yards and 2 scores
to the Falcons as a team. It wasn't a horrible outing, but not a stout
performance, either. The 49ers were stout against the run,
yardage-wise, during 2003, too, allowing an average of 105.6 rushing
yards per game (9th in the NFL), but Dunn's TDs killed the team. LB
Julian Peterson was the 8th best IDP LB in the land last week, with 5
solo tackles, 2 sacks, 2 forced fumbles and a pass defensed. Not bad
for a guy who held out during much of training camp.
New Orleans is in good health, while Julian Peterson works to overcome
a hip pointer (not listed). DE Andrew Williams remains out due to his
shin fracture. DE Andre Carter (back, doubtful), while DE Brandon
Whiting is questionable due to his back/shoulder injury.
This game is to be played in the air-conditioning in the Superdome (if
Hurricane Ivan cooperates). Weather is a factor, but not regarding
game-play.
McAllister is an elite fantasy back most weeks, and will be playing in
the friendly confines of the Superdome. San Francisco fields a top
rush D that stumbled a bit last week - we see this as a neutral
matchup.
Miami's Lamar Gordon vs. The Cincinnati Defense (Neutral Matchup)
The Dolphins couldn't punch their way out of a paper bag against the
Titans, and put up 20/65/0 as a team in the opening loss. With the
twin ankle injuries suffered by Travis Minor (out) and Sammy Morris
(questionable), Gordon (added to the team in the last 2 weeks via a
trade with St. Louis) is suddenly thrust into the starting role coming
into week 2. Behind the Dolphin's OL, that's a very dubious honor, at
best. Until the Dolphins figure out a way to block the opposition, we
advise avoiding the Dolphins' backs unless you are truly, monumentally
desperate.
Cincinnati was horrible in this phase of the game against the New York
Jets, getting embarrassed with a league-worst 219 rushing yards
allowed (and 1 score). It was a bad outing even for the defense that
ranked 24th in the NFL last year in rushing yards allowed (136.6).
Part of the Bengal's problem is that they are limping along without LB
Brian Simmons (knee, probable), and their depth at the position is
suffering due to ankle injuries to Caleb Miller (doubtful) and Landon
Johnson (probable). DT Matthias Askew is out (knee). DE Robert
Geathers (ankle, questionable) OT John St. Clair hurt his ankle in the
Dolphins opener (questionable). Injuries are a big factor in this
matchup, especially if Simmons can't go for the Bengals.
The forecast for Paul Brown Stadium calls for a high of 77F and a low
of 58F with a 30% chance of rain. If the rain comes down hard at game
time it could make the field and ball slick.
A weak attack meets a limping defense in this matchup. Neither side
has a clear edge.
Cincinnati's Rudi Johnson vs. The Miami Defense (Neutral Matchup)
Rudi Johnson was an adequate fantasy starter last week, with 24/70/1
to his credit at the end of the day against the New York Jets. The
team ran for 28/113/1 (Kenny Watson busted a 25 yard gallop) which
helped the team's ypc average get to 4, but that is misleading. The OL
is struggling with a key injury right now (C Rich Braham started but
could not finish the game due to a knee injury, and that caused
problems in the middle), and Johnson didn't have much room to roam.
Miami's proud run defense (allowed only 90.8 rushing yards per game on
average in 2003) stumbled in the season opener, allowing 182 net
rushing yards (0 scores, though) to the victorious Titans. They got
little help from the offense in the first half while Jay Fiedler was
playing himself out of a job, and Chris Brown slashed them for 100
yards by half-time. LB Zach Thomas had a top-ten IDP outing last week,
with 10 solo tackles and 3 assists in the losing effort.
Miami's DT Tim Bowens missed the game due to a back injury, and he is
doubtful to play this week. DT Bryan Robinson (hand), DT Dario Romero
(ankle) and LB Junior Seau (quadriceps) are all probable to play. T
Stacey Andrews (ankle, out) and C Larry Moore (knee) are unavailable
for Cincinnati. C Rich Braham is questionable, as is RB Chris Perry
(hamstring, questionable).
The forecast for Paul Brown Stadium calls for a high of 77F and a low
of 58F with a 30% chance of rain. If the rain comes down hard at game
time it could make the field and ball slick.
Miami has problems on offense that makes things difficult for the
defense, and they are short-handed on the DL if Bowens can't play.
Cincy has problems of their own right now in this phase - this looks
like an even matchup.
Detroit's Kevin Jones vs. The Houston Defense (Neutral Matchup)
Kevin Jones had 70 all purpose yards in his first "real" NFL game,
going 15/36/0 rushing and 1/34/0 receiving on the day. It wasn't an
earth-shattering fantasy performance, but he did carry the ball 10
times more than the next closest running back - it looks like the
Lions will give Jones an adequate number of touches each week.
Houston opened against San Diego and got run over for 122 rushing
yards and a score as the Chargers began the long road back from their
2003 nightmare. The Texans were very soft against the run in 2003,
allowing an average of 148.1 rushing yards per game (16 rushing
scores). To limit Tomlinson and company to 122 rushing yards was an
improvement over the Texans' typical 2003 performance.
Both teams enjoy good health coming into the game, with T Mat Joyce
(elbow, questionable) the lone Lion on the injury report for this
unit. DE Jerry DeLoach (ankle, probable) is the one Texan from the
front 7 unit listed.
This game will be played in the air-conditioned comfort of Ford Field,
so weather isn't a factor.
Jones is learning the ropes while the Texans are off to a soft start
on defense - this looks like a pretty even matchup.
Indianapolis' Edgerrin James vs. The Tennessee Defense (Tough Matchup)
James and company couldn't put the World Champs down on opening night,
but he had a great fantasy outing with 30/142/0 rushing and 3/29/0
receiving nonetheless. The team averaged 4.8 yards per carry with
42/202/1 rushing - it's clear the OL is doing their job in this phase
of the game. He suffered two costly fumbles though so he's got to
improve there.
Tennessee whipped the toothless Dolphins on Saturday, limiting them to
a team effort of 65 rushing yards and 0 TDs. As the Titans averaged
well under 90 yards rushing allowed per week during 2003 (80.9), they
are simply playing up to their high standards for defense.
RB James Mungro has a wrist injury (questionable). LB Brad Kassell
(Achilles) is out for Tennessee, while LB Rocky Calmus (back) and DE
Travis La Boy (concussion) are questionable.
The forecast for The Coliseum in Nashville calls for a high of 79F and
a low of 63F with a 20% chance for rain. Although keep an eye out to
see if Hurricane Ivan causes much trouble northward. Severe rain is a
possibility.
James is a quality back, the Titans field an elite defense, and the
game is in the Titans' home stadium. We like James but this could be a
tough matchup.
Pittsburgh's Duce Staley/Jerome Bettis vs. The Baltimore Defense
(Tough Matchup)
The two-headed monster of Staley and Bettis helped power the Steelers
to 24 points and victory on opening day, with 31/103/3 rushing as a
team on Sunday. Staley garnered 91 yards, but Bettis got the glory
last week with 5/1/3. We don't expect Staley to get frozen out of all
the scoring opportunities every week - but it is clear Bettis is the
short-yardage specialist this season.
Baltimore's Ray Lewis was the top IDP LB (again) last week, with 13
tackles, 1 assist, and 1 sack to his credit. However, his team coughed
up 85 net rushing yards and a rare score (the Ravens allowed 6 rushing
scores last season). They just couldn't overcome the poor play of the
Ravens' offense on this particular day.
NT Kelly Gregg (out) injured his knee in the game on Sunday, and he
anchors the center of the Ravens' defensive front. Pittsburgh says G
Alan Faneca is probable to play through a finger problem.
The forecast for M&T Bank Stadium calls for a high of 79F and a low of
67F with a 60% chance of precipitation. If the rain comes down hard at
game time, the ball and field could get slick.
The Ravens are never easy to rush the ball against, and at home on
Sunday we don't expect an exception to be made for Pittsburgh.
Seattle's Shaun Alexander / Maurice Morris vs. The Tampa Bay Defense
(Tough Matchup)
If Shaun Alexander can't go, Maurice Morris will see action this week:
Morris' career stats in 2 seasons are 70/392/0 (a 5.6 ypc average)
rushing and 7/57/1 receiving. He is considered an adequate NFL
talent - in week 2 of 2003, he put up his largest single game of the
season against Arizona, rushing 11 times for 67 yards. He has the
skills to make good things happen in space.
Morris and the Seahawks must visit the Buccaneers in Tampa this week,
so they will have their hands full with the hard-nosed defense (they
only allowed 6 rushing scores during 2003). However, some chinks in
the Buccaneer's armor appeared as the Redskins threw down 39/166/1
against them. Clinton Portis can make almost anyone look bad. Shelton
Quarles was a top IDP performer at LB, with 10 tackles and 3 assists
on the day (10th best fantasy LB).
Alexander's knee is something to watch (questionable). Otherwise, both
units have relatively decent health coming into the game.
The forecast for Raymond James Stadium is for a high of 88F and a low
of 73F with a 20% chance for rain. As long as Ivan doesn't hook East,
it'll be a good day for football.
Morris is a good backup, but backup he is - and the Buccaneers are
lurking in their home stadium, hurt by their poor game vs. Washington.
Tampa will have the edge in this one if Morris starts. If Alexander is
healthy enough to go, that would push things more toward the Seahawk's
favor.
The New York Giants' Tiki Barber/Ron Dayne vs. The Washington Defense
(Tough Matchup)
Division rivalries are intense in the NFC East, and this is a storied
clash - both teams come in to renew the rivalry with new coaching
staffs, new players, and a new outlook on their prospects.
Ron Dayne had more carries in the loss to the Eagles (13/45/1), while
Tiki Barber had a much better fantasy outing (9/125/1 rushing, with
5/75/0 receiving). It is apparent that Dayne will be the short-yardage
and goal-line back starting out 2004, while Barber is used in more
situational roles and in passing situations. As we can see from
Barber's performance in week 1, just because he isn't the "starting"
RB, he is likely to be the best fantasy RB on the team most weeks. For
those who point to Barbers' "garbage-time" production, we say "stats
equals points".
Washington had no problem shutting down Charlie Garner and company
last week, allowing a mere 30 rushing yards and 0 TDs in the game.
That's an awesome performance in this phase of the game, regardless of
how poor the OL in Tampa may be. Last year, the Redskins under the
"Fun-N-Gun" regime of Steve Spurrier allowed an average of 138.6
rushing yards per game - obviously, this is a new D with a new
attitude in 2004.
OL Wayne Lucier hurt his shoulder during the game last Sunday
(questionable).LB Mike Barrow missed week 1 due to a knee injury
(questionable). LB LaVar Arrington is probable to play despite his
sore knee.
The forecast for Giants' Stadium calls for a high of 75F with a low of
60F and a 60% chance for rain. If the rain comes down hard at game
time, the field may be slick and sloppy making footing/ball handling
an issue.
The Giants' suspect line will make the difference in this matchup as
the Redskins have already shown they will blow up teams with bad
blockers up front. Advantage, Washington.
Chicago's Thomas Jones vs. The Green Bay Defense (Tough Matchup)
Chicago's Thomas Jones pleased his fantasy owners last week with over
100 yards of offense combined and 2 scores (21/67/2 rushing and 6/38/0
receiving), showing his detractors that he can produce in the new
Chicago offense. Time will tell how good the Chicago running attack
can be, but it was a good way to kick off the season. The Bears rushed
for 32/128/2 as a team (a solid 4.0 ypc average) - the OL did some
nice things in this phase of the game last week.
Green Bay humiliated the Panther's RBs last week, with a choke-hold
that allowed a mere 38 total rushing yards and 0 scores. It was a
great performance by the Packers' defense. They were a top-ten unit in
2003, allowing an average of 106.3 rushing yards per game. Holding an
NFL team with quality backs like Stephen Davis and DeShaun Foster to
38 yards rushing is spectacular work. Nick Barnett was the 4th-ranked
fantasy LB in the land last week, with 5 solo tackles, 2 assists, 1
sack, 1 interception and 1 pass defensed. He was a busy guy.
Chicago's OG Rex Tucker (elbow) remains out. Packer DT Grady Jackson
dislocated his knee cap on MNF and is out. DT Kenny Peterson (ankle,
doubtful), LB Torrance Marshall (hamstring, questionable), LB Paris
Lenon (thumb, probable) and LB Hannibal Navies (shoulder, probable)
are also listed on the Wednesday injury report.
The forecast for Lambeau field calls for a high of 77F and a low of
57F with a 20% chance of precipitation. That's some fine football
weather, folks.
Chicago has some good things going on offense this season, but Green
Bay was downright impressive in week 1. At home, the Packers have a
definite edge in this phase of the game.
Dallas' Julius Jones/Eddie George vs. The Cleveland Defense (Tough
Matchup)
For whatever reason, Julius Jones stood on the sidelines and watched
as the Cowboys' rushing attack staggered through a 21/71/1
performance, headlined by reserve RB ReShard Lee (5/35/1). It wasn't a
pretty situation, with only Lee able to break the 4 yards per carry
barrier on his chances. We believe that Jones is going to be the guy
behind the QB carrying the ball this week. ReShard Lee looked
fantastic, but we think Jones is the likely answer.
Cleveland shocked the Ravens last week, and a big part of that win
grew from the effort of Kenard Lang, the top IDP DL last week, with 3
solo tackles, 1 assist, 3 sacks, and 1 forced fumble. The Browns held
their 2003 nemesis Jamal Lewis (and company) to a mere 88 yards
rushing with 0 scores. Considering how thoroughly Lewis humiliated the
Browns last year, it was an impressive pay-back. There may be hope for
the Browns to get out of the lower-20s in rush defense ranking this
season (last year they were 23rd in the NFL allowing an average of
132.1 rushing yards per game).
Dallas' OL got worse due to injuries last week: OG Andre Gurode
sprained his left MCL (questionable), while C Tyson Walter (knee,
questionable) was also hurt. If both of them are limited or
unavailable this week, the OL will face serious depth problems. RB
Richie Anderson is questionable with a sprained knee/ankle. DT Gerard
Warren strained a pectoral muscle last Sunday (questionable), DE
Ebenezer Ekuban has a sore groin (questionable), and DE Corey Jackson
has a sore ankle (questionable). DE Kenard Lang (elbow) and LB Eric
Westmoreland (hip) are listed as probable to play. There are injury
concerns to monitor on both sides of the ball in this one.
The forecast for Texas Stadium calls for a high of 91F and a low of
71F with a 0% chance of precipitation. An excellent game-day forecast,
that is.
The Cowboys' running game looks chaotic and disorganized right now -
it's probably best to look elsewhere for your starters, especially
against a rising defense like Cleveland. Advantage, Browns.
Denver's Quentin Griffin vs. The Jacksonville Defense (Tough Matchup)
Quentin Griffin started to silence his critics in fantasy circles last
week, exploding for 23/156/2 rushing and 1/1/1 receiving against the
hated division-rival Chiefs. Griffin was used in every situation on
all downs, except when he needed a breather after long runs. He looks
firmly in charge of the Bronco's attack at this point. The Denver RB
machine just keeps churning out 1000-yard rushers.
Jacksonville contained the Bills in week 1, allowing 95 yards of
rushing but 0 scores in the course of a close-fought victory. The Jags
were second in the NFL last year in run defense (averaging 87.9
rushing yards allowed per game, with 12 rushing scores surrendered in
16 games) - it's no surprise to see them manage the Bills' backs.
LDT Marcus Stroud was ex-rayed for sore ribs after the game
(probable). Denver lists T Cornell Green as questionable due to a sore
groin, as is Garrison Hearst (ankle).
The forecast for AllTel Stadium calls for a high of 88F and a low of
74F with a 20% chance of precipitation. It should be a good day to
play football.
Griffin gets to challenge an elite rush defense in this game - we'll
see how he manages the tough yards this weekend.
Tampa Bay's Charlie Garner vs. The Seattle Defense (Bad Matchup)
Tampa's OL is awful at run blocking folks. The team managed an
embarrassing 15/30/0 rushing on the day (and gave up 4 sacks, to
boot). There just isn't much to say regarding the prospects of Charlie
Garner at the moment - the opposing defense is penetrating past the
line of scrimmage, and he has nowhere to go with the ball. Look
elsewhere for your starting RB.
Seattle's defense did a great job stuffing Deuce McAllister and
friends last week, holding the Saints to 74 rushing yards and 0 TDs.
They are a much-improved unit and they were pretty decent last season
(14th in the NFL, allowing an average of 109.9 rushing yards per game,
with only 9 rushing scores allowed last year).
The Buc's reserve OT Kenyatta Walker is battling a knee injury and was
inactive last week. Seattle goes without Chad Brown (fibula, out). LB
Solomon Bates (groin, questionable), DT Rashad Moore (shoulder,
probable) and DE Chike Okeafor (toe, probable) are also listed.
The forecast for Raymond James Stadium is for a high of 88F and a low
of 73F with a 20% chance for rain. As long as Ivan doesn't hook East,
it'll be a good day for football.
A bad rushing attack crosses swords with a good-to-great D in this
one. Advantage, Seattle.
Oakland's Tyrone Wheatley/Justin Fargas vs. The Buffalo Defense (Bad
Matchup)
Oakland's rushing attack never got its wheels going during week 1,
gaining an aggregate of 23/61/0 (a 2.7 yards-per-carry average) while
spreading out the work primarily to Tyrone Wheatley (11/24/0) and
Justin Fargas (7/17/0). That's horrible as far as fantasy points are
concerned.
The good news is that the Raiders don't play Pittsburgh this week, but
the bad news is that they play Buffalo, who wound up 8th in the NFL
last season allowing an average of 100.4 rushing yards per game. The
Bills opened week 1 holding Jacksonville to 83 yards and 0 rushing
scores - they are right back in the saddle in 2004.
OLG Frank Middleton left the game last week due to cramps. Justin
Fargas is bothered by a sore toe (questionable to play). Buffalo's
front seven come into the game in decent health, with no major
problems to report.
The forecast for Network Associates Coliseum in Oakland calls for a
high of 71F and a low of 54F, with a 10% chance for precipitation.
That sounds like great football weather to us.
Oakland has a lot left to prove in this phase of the game, while
Buffalo is always tough to run on. We think this is a very tough
matchup for the Raiders' backs.
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