Rushing Matchups - Week 5
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Posted 10/7 by Mark Wimer and Joe Bryant, Exclusive to Footballguys.com
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Hi Folks,
Here's our look at the Rushing Matchups for this week.
PLEASE NOTE: This does NOT replace the Cheatsheet ranking. The Cheatsheet rankings
are the final say on where we see a player for that week. The Matchup Breakdowns
are simply one more tool in the box when it comes to helping choose your lineup.
Also note, just because a player has a "bad" matchup, it does NOT mean
he's not a starter in your league. If LaDainian Tomlinson is playing the toughest
rush defense in the league, that just means he's got a tough matchup that week.
He's also your starter. In the same way, if the worst RB on your roster has a
"great" matchup, that doesn't necessarily mean you start him, it just
means he'll likely fare better this week than he normally would.
Bottom line, the cheatsheets are the final word.
Let's jump to it.
Joe
***********************
Joe Bryant
Owner - www.Footballguys.com
Bye Weeks:
Philadelphia: Brian Westbrook
Chicago: Thomas Jones
Cincinnati: Rudi Johnson
Kansas City: Priest Holmes
Tennessee's Chris Brown vs. The Green Bay
Defense (Great Matchup)
Chris Brown had an off game last week, with 15/55/0 rushing and 2/15/0 receiving
last week, the first time this year he has not rushed for at least 100 yards.
It was bound to happen sometime - we think this is an aberration, not a trend.
80/408/2 rushing and 7/58/0 receiving this season puts him at 15th among all
fantasy RBs to date. The Titans are averaging 4.8 yards per carry right now,
4th in the NFL - the big guys up front are pulling their weight so far this
year.
Green Bay's D has been exposed for the empty shell of a defensive front that
it is, allowing 35/245/1 to the Giants last week. That's embarrassing. The team
allows 131.3 rushing yards per game on average (23rd in the NFL) and has given
away 5 rushing scores to date. Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila (2 solo tackles, 3 assists
and 1.5 sacks) and Aaron Kampman (8 solo tackles, 3 assists, 1 sack) were in
the top ten among IDP DLs last week, and Na'il Diggs was 3rd among fantasy LBs
with 11 solo tackles and 4 assists. They were a busy group as the Giants controlled
the ball for 35+ minutes last week.
DTs Grady Jackson (knee) and James Lee (knee) are out, while DE R-Kal Truluck
(shoulder) and LB Hannibal Navies (shoulder) are listed as probable. The injuries
have hurt the defense's ability to defend the run. G Zach Piller is out due
to a biceps injury for the Titans.
This game is scheduled to be played at Lambeau field, on Monday Night Football,
so the temp will be close to 40F (the forecasted low) for most of the game -
there is a 10% chance of rain, so it should be a nice, crisp autumn night for
all involved.
Brown should have a great shot at a strong game vs. the Packers' banged up
defense.
Green Bay's Ahman Green vs. The Tennessee
Defense (Great Matchup)
Green Bay's game plan went out the window when Brett Favre was knocked out
of the game (backup Doug Pederson was ineffective and is now injured), so Ahman
Green had an off game due to the collapse of the passing attack. He still managed
to put up 15/58/0 rushing and 3/48/0 receiving - the game was not a total loss
to players in leagues where yardage counts for points. Green is currently the
11th ranked fantasy RB in the land, with 89/372/2 rushing and 11/86/1 to this
point in the season - he's been decent, but not outstanding so far.
Tennessee is hurting in this phase of the game, and they are actually tied
with Green Bay allowing an average of 131.3 rushing yards per game (4 scores
allowed to date). San Diego abused them for 24/195/2 last week - the line is
giving way often right now.
DE Juqua Thomas (ankle, out) is hurting, and LB Rocky Calmus (back, questionable)
is seeking a second opinion on his aching back. Fellow LB Rocky Boiman has a
sore knee (questionable), LB Robert Reynolds has a hip injury (questionable)
and DT Albert Haynesworth (ankle, questionable). Green Bay's RB Najeh Davenport
continues to have a bad hamstring (questionable).
This game is scheduled to be played at Lambeau field, on Monday Night Football,
so the temp will be close to 40F (the forecasted low) for most of the game -
there is a 10% chance of rain, so it should be a nice, crisp autumn night for
all involved.
Green has a great shot at a big game playing against the limping Titans defensive
front.
Seattle's Shaun Alexander vs. The St. Louis
Defense (Great Matchup)
Seattle's offense was hot going into the bye week, and Shaun Alexander had
one of his "Boom" games in week 3 (19/52/2 rushing and 4/22/1 receiving),
racking up a ton of TDs. He is now the 2nd ranked fantasy RB in fantasy points
per game, with 21.5 per game (64/232/4 rushing and 6/53/2 receiving) - he's
a fantasy points slot machine that always pays off right now. Start him if you
are lucky enough to have him.
St. Louis is not good at run defense this year, allowing an average of 137.3
rushing yards per game (4 scores allowed to date). San Francisco couldn't get
much going last week, with 19/58/0 rushing vs. The Rams - the unit is on a bit
of a roll right now. Leonard Little was a top IDP DL last week, with 6 solo
tackles, 1 sack, and 1 fumble recovery. Pisa Tinoisamoa racked up 8 solo tackles,
4 assists, and .5 sack (8th IDP LB).
St. Louis lists DT Jimmy Kennedy (foot, out), LB Tony Newson (ankle, questionable)
and LB Robert Thomas (ankle, probable). RB Mack Strong has a sore knee (probable).
The forecast for Qwest Field in Seattle calls for a high of 60F and a low of
47F with a 10% chance for rain.
Alexander is an elite back, the Rams a bottom-tier rush defense. Advantage,
Seattle.
Tampa Bay's Michael Pittman vs. The New
Orleans' Defense (Good Matchup)
Tampa is going to be starting a new, young QB this week. New Orleans is bound
to key on the run and dare Chris Simms to beat them - so be aware that Pittman
is going to face a lot of "packed" fronts. Pittman played a decent
game in his return from suspension (15/72/0), but there is likely to be a lot
of attention paid to the running game.
However, the New Orleans rush defense is not at all good, ranking 31st in the
NFL in yards allowed per game (159.5) and last in scores allowed (9). They coughed
up 40/211/2 to the Cardinals last week. Soft, soft, soft.
LB Courtney Watson (knee, questionable) and LB Derrick Rodgers (back) are listed
for the Saints. Tampa has a clean bill of health in this phase of the game.
This game is to be played in the Superdome - weather won't be a factor.
This is a good matchup for Pittman, but remember that he's likely to get a
lot of attention from the Saints.
San Diego's LaDainian Tomlinson vs. The
Jacksonville Defense (Good Matchup)
LaDainian Tomlinson and company got a lift last week by dismantling the Tennessee
Titans. Tomlinson notched 17/147/1 rushing and 2/13/0 receiving - he totally
dominated the Titans. Currently, Tomlinson is the #7 fantasy RB in the land,
with 84/415/3 rushing and 11/95/0 receiving to date, but he'll be moving up
the board if he can sustain his pace from last week moving forward.
Meanwhile, the Jags were gouged for 27/117/1 by the Colts last week. After
starting the season very strong, the Jags are dropping down the rush defense
list in recent weeks, surrendering an average of 109.3 rushing yards per game
on average (16th in the NFL), with 2 rushing scores allowed to date (1 per game
over the last two games).
C Nick Hardwick injured a knee in the game last week (out). Tomlinson has a
sore groin (probable). Jacksonville lists DE Lionel Barnes (shoulder, probable).
The forecast for Qualcomm Stadium calls for typically beautiful Southern California
weather (71F for a high, 58F for a low, 0% chance of precipitation).
Tomlinson got on a roll last week, and the Jags are not playing up to their
usual standards recently - advantage, San Diego.
Atlanta's Warrick Dunn/T.J. Duckett vs.
The Detroit Defense (Good Matchup)
Warrick Dunn has been battling a tight hamstring for some weeks now, and it
is limiting the number of carries he sees come game-time. However, he is still
finding pay-dirt regularly (16/76/1 last week, and 69/299/5 rushing this season),
and the team is really leaning on the running game right now, so he is still
a very valuable fantasy commodity - but just not elite right at the moment.
If you are a Dunn owner, pay attention to the injury reports as they are issued
this week, and check the "did not participate in team practices" section
to monitor Dunn's progress. Duckett owners will want to keep an eye there too,
as he prospered last week in relief of Dunn (13/63/1) after many weeks of being
a fantasy nonentity. The Falcons are the top-ranked rushing team in the league
in terms of yards per carry, at 5.2 yards per tote. They're darn good.
Detroit's rush D is in the top ten this season, averaging 99.7 yards allowed
per game (3 scores to date). The Eagles managed 59 yards rushing and 1 score
against the team two weeks ago - but the team was very focused on passing in
that game.
Other than Dunn's hamstring, the Falcons are in good shape. The Lions list
LB Boss Bailey as out (knee), and DEs James Hall (hand) and Robert Porcher (flu)
are probable.
This game will be played in the air-conditioned Georgia Dome, so weather isn't
a factor.
Dunn and company are on fire in this phase of the game, while the Lions are
playing pretty tough, too. Home field advantage helps out the offense - we think
the Falcons have an edge in this matchup, but it's not a huge edge.
Arizona's Emmitt Smith vs. The San Francisco
Defense (Good Matchup)
Emmitt Smith still has gas left in the tank, folks. With 68/290/3 rushing,
3/29/0 receiving, and 1/1 for 21 yards, 1 TD and 0 interceptions to his credit
in 2004, he has been responsible for all but 1 TD that the Cardinals have scored
in 2004. He's now in the top 20 among fantasy backs, with 13.75 fantasy points
per game (18th in the NFL). On a team with few playmakers, he is clearly the
redzone option for coach Green. He put up 21/127/1 last week, and got the TD
pass to Obafemi Ayanbadejo as icing on the cake - Smith's a quality #2 at this
point in the season.
San Francisco is very giving this season - they have allowed the second-most
rushing scores in the league to date, with 6 (second only to New Orleans, whom
Smith scored on twice last week). They average 108 rushing yards allowed per
game (15th in the NFL), and turn-stiled their way to a total of 36/174/2 vs.
The Rams last week. They're weak in this phase of the game.
San Francisco's defensive front is banged up - LBs Derek Smith (leg/ankle,
doubtful) and Jeff Ulbrich (hamstring, not listed on Wednesday); DEs Brandon
Whiting (thumb, probable), John Engelberger (abdominal, questionable), Andrew
Williams (broken leg, out), Otis Leverette (ankle, questionable) and Andre Carter
(back, out) are all injured, as is DT Bryant Young (shoulder, not listed on
Wednesday). Arizona is has lost RB Josh Scobey to a knee injury (out).
Monster Stadium expects a high of 65F and a low of 56F, with a 10% chance of
rain on Sunday. That's great football weather in our book.
Emmitt Smith is making people forget his forgettable 2003 season right now,
and he has a good shot at another strong game against the limping 49ers.
San Francisco's Kevan Barlow vs. The Arizona
Defense (Good Matchup)
Kevan Barlow had 90 yards combined last week, 15/42/0 rushing and 6/48/0 receiving.
It wasn't a good fantasy outing, but it wasn't a total loss, either. With Tim
Rattay in the lineup (299 yards passing and 2 scores), Barlow's prospects look
brighter than during the (mercifully brief) Ken Dorsey era. He has 3 runs of
20+ yards this year, tied for 2nd most in the NFL right now - Barlow can be
explosive when he gets into space. He is currently the 24th ranked fantasy RB
with 64/254/2 rushing and 11/86/0 receiving. But he needs to pick up the pace
if he's going to meet expectations for him.
Arizona's rush D is not very impressive in terms of yards allowed (30th in
the NFL, at 145.8), but they have been stout in the redzone, allowing 0 rushing
scores to date. 14/41/0 was all the Saints could muster against the Cardinals
last week (which means the Cards have given up a lot of yards in their other
games to average 145.8 after such a dominant performance).
The 49er OL is hurting - T Kwame Harris has missed time (knee/ankle, probable)
and C Jeremy Newberry (knee, out) is out of the lineup right now. C Brock Gutierrez
(ankle, not listed) was hurt in the game last week, as was RG Justin Smiley
(knee bruise, not listed). Arizona lists DT Ross Kolodziej (ankle, questionable)
this week.
Monster Stadium expects a high of 65F and a low of 56F, with a 10% chance of
rain on Sunday. That's great football weather in our book.
Kevan Barlow has some problems with injuries to his line right now, but he
remains on pace for 1000+ yards rushing this season. He should have a good week
against the generous Cardinals, as long as the remaining players on the OL do
not get injured.
Denver's Quentin Griffin vs. The Carolina
Defense (Good Matchup)
After last week's game, Quentin Griffin received a game ball from coach Shanahan
- there's the measure of the teams' regard for Griffin right now. Will the gesture
help rebuild his confidence and fantasy production? That's an unknown right
now. The bottom line with Griffin is that he has had a terrible game and a mediocre
game in the last two weeks (but at least he quit fumbling last week). He will
be on thin ice until he starts producing more consistent results. 21/66/0 rushing
with 1/15/0 receiving isn't a fantasy debacle, but its not going to win your
squad many games, either. Denver is tied for 26th in the NFL averaging 3.5 yards
per carry right now, so this problem isn't all due to Griffin - the guys up
front aren't doing the job run blocking right now.
Carolina's defensive front is playing very soft this season, with an average
of 142 rushing yards allowed per game, and the 3rd-most TDs allowed this season
(tie, 5). It is not what the team is used to seeing from Mike Rucker and company.
They coughed up 40/165/2 to the Falcons last week - it's fair to say the Panthers'
D is reeling right now. Rucker was the 8th best IDP DL last week, with 6 solo
tackles and a pass defensed, while MLB Dan Morgan was 10th at his position with
8 solo tackles, 1 assist and 1 pass defensed.
Carolina's Mark Fields left the game last week due to back spasms (knee, questionable
this week), and DT Brentson Buckner has a sore knee (questionable). RBs Quentin
Griffin (ankle) is questionable, while Garrison Hearst is probable (ankle) -
reports out of Denver indicate that Griffin just tweaked his ankle last week
and is expected to play on Sunday. If Griffin was limited, backups Reuben Droughns
and Tatum Bell would also see work. Bell gets the hype but Droughns saw 8 carries
last week. Watch this one closely up till game time.
The forecast for Mile High Stadium calls for a high of 65F and a low of 46F
with a 30% chance of precipitation. That doesn't sound like a forecast for snow,
but sleet is always a possibility at this time of year in the high country -
if the precipitation comes down hard around game time, conditions on the field
could be less-than-optimum.
Griffin really needs a solid game, and the Panthers are pretty soft - that
sounds like a recipe for a good game to us. Advantage, Denver.
Cleveland's Lee Suggs vs. The Pittsburgh
Defense (Good Matchup)
Cleveland turned Lee Suggs loose last week, and he responded with 22/82/1 rushing
and 1/6/0 receiving - a performance which swiftly banished William Green to
the sidelines. It looks like he'll be the top "Dawg" in Cleveland
going forward to us. The team put up 32/96/1 against the ultra-tough Washington
front, so the success of that unit bodes well for Suggs' chances to be an impact
fantasy player this year.
Pittsburgh's defensive front is not intimidating this season, allowing an average
of 105.5 rushing yards per game and coughing up 3 rushing scores to date. Rudi
Johnson and company put up 27/137/1 against them last week - there is no "Steel
Curtain" in Pittsburgh right now. Larry Foote was a top IDP LB last week,
with 9 solo tackles, 2 assists, 1 sack, 1 forced fumble and 1 pass defensed
(2nd LB in the NFL last week).
The Browns are going without T Ryan Tucker lately (quadriceps, questionable).
T Ross Verba is probable (calf). Pittsburgh's Kendrell Bell hasn't played this
season and elected to undergo laproscopic surgery Wednesday on his injured groin
this week. He's out for at least 2 weeks. DT Travis Kirschke (foot) is probable
to play.
The forecast for Heinz Field calls for a high of 61F and a low of 42F, with
a 20% chance for rain - a nice day is on tap up in Pennsylvania, it appears.
Suggs is full of fantasy potential, and the Steelers defensive front is not
strong. Advantage, Cleveland.
Houston's Domanick Davis vs. The Minnesota
Defense (Good Matchup)
Domanick Davis participated in practice on Wednesday, so it looks like he is
on pace to play vs. The Vikings this week (questionable on the injury report).
Before going down to a sprained ankle, he had amassed 56/177/2 rushing and 17/180/0
receiving - Davis is one of the premier double-threat backs in the league right
now. Keep an eye on his status as the week proceeds, but right now we expect
to see Davis on the field.
Minnesota's rush D is not great (allowing an average of 102.7 rushing yards
per game and surrendering 4 rush TDs to date), but they are above average (12th
in the NFL). Last week, they were on bye, but in week 3 they coughed up 146
yards rushing to Thomas Jones and the Bears (2 TDs) - they weren't on top of
their game in this phase in the last game.
Aside from Davis, the Texans list RB Moran Norris (knee, probable) on the initial
injury report. LBs E.J. Henderson (knee, out) and Chris Claiborne (calf, questionable)
are listed by the Vikings, as is DT Chris Hovan (knee, questionable).
This game is to be played at Reliant Stadium - if the rains come, the retractable
roof will probably be closed (30% chance of rain), but absent that, the team
has been allowing the roof to be open to force their opponents to play in the
sticky Houston humidity (80F for a high on Sunday, 65F for a low) which has
caused cramping/dehydration issues for some players.
Davis is a top NFL back, while the Minnesota rush D is a second-tier unit with
some key injuries right now. Advantage, Texans.
Minnesota's Moe Williams/Mewelde Moore vs.
The Houston Defense (Good Matchup)
Moe Williams should be the guy this weekend, but he is slowed by a calf injury
as of midweek - his status for the game will be determined as the practices
go by. If Williams is unable to be effective, then the Vikings will be forced
to turn to rookie Mewelde Moore as Michael Bennett is out with a torn meniscus
and Onterrio Smith is suspended by the league for another violation of the drug
policy. Moore is the 2nd player in NCAA history with 4,000+ rushing & 2,000+
rec. yards, so he has potential. Whichever player ends up carrying the ball
will run behind an OL that is averaging 4.4 yards per carry, so their fantasy
prospects are pretty good.
Houston's rush D is pretty soft, allowing an average of 133.8 rushing yards
per contest, and giving away 3 scores to date. Last week, Oakland pushed the
Texans around to the tune of 20/151/2 - rush defense is not a strength of the
Texans. Jamie Sharper was the top IDP LB in the land last week, with 7 solo
tackles, 2 assists, 1 sack, 1 forced fumble, 1 fumble recovery, 1 pass defensed
and a fumble return for a TD. Whew, he was a busy guy last week!
Houston's defensive front is in good health. Minnesota's list includes C Matt
Birk (ankle, probable).
This game is to be played at Reliant Stadium - if the rains come, the retractable
roof will probably be closed (30% chance of rain), but absent that, the team
has been allowing the roof to be open to force their opponents to play in the
sticky Houston humidity (80F for a high on Sunday, 65F for a low) which has
caused cramping/dehydration issues for some players.
The Vikings have a potent attack, while the Texans are soft in this phase.
Advantage, Minnesota.
Indianapolis' Edgerrin James vs. The Oakland
Defense (Good Matchup)
Edgerrin James amassed 19/84/1 rushing and 3/25/0 receiving last week, and
is currently the 6th best fantasy RB in the land, averaging 18.13 fantasy points
per week (91/411/4 rushing and 9/74/0 receiving to date). He plays on arguably
the most potent offense in the NFL (certainly one of the top 3) and there is
no way for teams to key on him and still defend against the pass. Start him
if you've got him.
Oakland's rush defense ranks 12th in the NFL right now, allowing 107 rushing
yards per game with 4 rushing scores give away so far - they are strictly middle-of-the-road
in this phase of the game. Houston hung 40/162/1 on this unit last week, so
they are knocked back on their heels coming into this game.
Indy is in good health coming into the game, while Oakland lists LB Sam Williams
(shoulder, doubtful). Injuries aren't a huge issue for either unit.
This game is being played in the RCA Dome, so weather won't be an issue.
James is a top back on a top offense, while the Raiders are just slightly above
average. Advantage, Indianapolis.
Oakland's RBBC vs. The Indianapolis Defense
(Neutral Matchup)
Oakland's RB situation got more complex last week, when Tyrone Wheatley got
off to a strong start (3/27/0 rushing) but injured his shoulder and was held
out of the game. Amos Zereoue showed flashes of talent (that led coach Cowher
to name him Pittsburgh's starter at the beginning of last season), slapping
down 14/117/2 rushing and 2/17/0 receiving. Justin Fargas is questionable due
to turf toe. "Mix it" may describe this backfield for several weeks.
Wheatley is out 2-4 weeks thanks to his shoulder injury, so it looks like Zereoue
will get a shot at a repeat performance of his game last week. Zack Crockett
will also likely get a shot to see what he can do.
Indianapolis has a top-ten run D (allowing 101.5 rushing yards per game, and
2 scores to date), but a 32nd ranked pass defense - teams don't need to run
at the Colts right now as they are giving up 313 passing yards per game (Ouch).
31/97/0 was the extent of damage that Fred Taylor and company managed last week.
DE Robert Mathis was a top IDP DL last week, with 4 solo tackles, 1 sack and
1 forced fumble.
Gs Frank Middleton (ankle) and Ron Stone (knee) are listed as doubtful by Oakland
- the OL will be thin if they can't play. Indianapolis says DE Robert Mathis
(thigh/groin) is probable to play.
This game is being played in the RCA Dome, so weather won't be an issue.
Oakland's running game is in flux, and their OL is banged up, while the Colts
are decent at defending the run. With home field advantage behind the D, we
call this an even matchup.
New York Giants' Tiki Barber vs. The Dallas
Defense (Neutral Matchup)
Say what you will about Commandant Coughlin's methods, he sure found a way
to cure Tiki Barber of his fumbling problem, didn't he? It appears that Barber
has returned to the top of his abilities as a ball carrier and that's a good
thing for Barber owners (and the Giants, too). Barber was tops in the NFL last
week with 23/182/1 rushing and 4/14/0 receiving. He has amassed 73/455/3 rushing
and 14/164/0 receiving so far in 2004, good for 4th among all fantasy RBs. Start
him if you've got him. The Giants' OL is averaging 5.0 yards per carry blocking
for Barber (2nd in the NFL), and he has 4 runs of 20+ yards this year (tops
in the NFL) and he averages 6.2 ypc, tops in the league.
Dallas remains very tough to score on in this phase (0 scores allowed to date),
but are in the bottom half of the league in terms of yards allowed (122 on average,
20th in the league). Clinton Portis put up 23/94/0 against the Cowboys in week
3 - they bend but they don't break in the redzone
DE Eric Ogbogu is on the Dallas injury report (knee, questionable) but otherwise
both units are healthy.
The Forecast for Texas Stadium calls for a high of 74F and a low of 59F with
a 30% chance for rain. If the rain comes down hard at game time, the field could
get slick and the ball harder to handle.
Barber is on fire, but this is a divisional game in a hostile environment against
a tough defensive front - we call it even.
Pittsburgh's Duce Staley/Jerome Bettis vs.
The Cleveland Defense (Neutral Matchup)
Has a fantasy RB ever been so horribly "vultured" by another RB to
the extent that Staley has this season? It seems that when the team plays in
Heinz field (as they do this week), crowd-favorite Bettis gets to run in at
least one cheap plunge-type TD per game. In basic scoring leagues, Bettis is
much more valuable than Staley, at least right now. Staley has 87/372/0 rushing
and 2/12/0 receiving this year, putting him at #25 among all fantasy RBs through
4 games. He just can't beg, borrow or steal a TD right now.
Cleveland's defense limited Clinton Portis and company to 25/73/1 last week
(2.9 ypc average), so they are on top of their game coming into this matchup.
The team has averaged 100.8 rushing yards allowed per game (8th in the NFL to
date), but they are giving away a lot of TDs so far (5 to date, 3rd most in
the NFL).
DT Gerard Warren continues to miss games due to his pectoral injury (questionable),
and don't forget that Courtney Brown is on IR. LBs Kevin Bentley (quadriceps)
and Barry Gardner (groin) are both questionable. Pittsburgh lists C Jeff Hartings
(knee, probable) and RBs Dan Kreider (flu, probable) and Duce Staley (toe, probable).
The forecast for Heinz Field calls for a high of 61F and a low of 42F, with
a 20% chance for rain - a nice day is on tap up in Pennsylvania, it appears.
Staley is getting lots of touches, but his lack of redzone presence has negatively
impacted his fantasy value. Bettis has 5 plunge TDs, but wouldn't be worth nearly
as much in a yardage league - you need to pay attention to your league's scoring
structure before pulling the trigger on these guys. This looks like a fairly
even matchup to us.
Washington's Clinton Portis vs. The Baltimore
Defense (Neutral Matchup)
Clinton Portis is really missing his old OL now that he is in Washington. 20/58/1
rushing and 2/15/0 receiving is not exactly what his fantasy owners had in mind
when they spent their first pick in the first round to acquire Portis' talents.
He's still in the top ten among fantasy RBs (92/369/2 rushing and 11/96/1 receiving
is nothing to snort at), but is in danger of dropping out of that list if he
continues to struggle in the rushing phase of the game.
Baltimore, meanwhile, was surprised by the K.C. game plan of running the ball
straight at Ray Lewis. It worked, too, with the team amassing 46/178/2 against
the feared Baltimore offensive front. Expect Washington to try the same trick
this week. Baltimore now ranks as the 18th rush D in the land, allowing an average
of 116.3 yards per game, and they have surrendered 3 scores to date - not horrible,
but no longer a top-ten unit. DL Anthony Weaver was the 10th best fantasy DL
in the league last week, with 4 solo tackles and 1 sack.
Both teams come in dinged up, with G Ray Brown (hamstring), and RB Chad Morton
(knee, probable) listed. LB T.J. Slaughter is questionable (hamstring); DTs
Aubrayo Franklin (hamstring) and Ma'ake Kemoeatu (ribs) and LBs Bart Scott (hamstring)
and Terrell Suggs (groin) are all probable.
The forecast for FedEx Field calls for a high of 70F, with a low of 46F and
a 20% chance of precipitation. Isn't fall weather great?
Portis and the Redskins' OL is struggling right now, as is the Ravens' defensive
front. This looks like a fairly even matchup from where we sit.
Baltimore's Jamal Lewis vs. The Washington
Defense (Neutral Matchup)
Jamal Lewis' legal woes are still weighing on him, but he is managing to set
that aside when he steps on the field. Last week, against KC, he amassed 15/73/1
rushing - not a huge game, but not a fantasy disappointment, either. He is the
8th ranked fantasy RB to date, averaging 16.6 fantasy points per game. Baltimore
is 3rd in the league averaging 4.9 rushing yards per carry - Lewis' compatriots
on the OL are doing their job.
Washington, meanwhile, is incredibly tough vs. The rushing game, allowing an
average of only 59.5 rushing yards per game right now, with 2 scores surrendered
to date. The Browns managed to dent that front a bit last week, with 32/96/1
as a team, but it was hardly a collapse on the part of the Redskins (3.0 yards
per carry).
DE Phillip Daniels (groin, out) and LBs LaVar Arrington and Mike Barrow (knee
injuries) did not play last week - Arrington is rehabbing a knee surgery, while
Barrow battles knee tendonitis. Both are out. DE Ron Warner has a sore ankle
(probable). Baltimore has no major injury complaints coming into the game, although
C Mike Flynn is still out. RBs Ovie Mughelli (hamstring) is questionable, and
fellow RB Chester Taylor has a sore ankle (probable).
The forecast for FedEx Field calls for a high of 70F, with a low of 46F and
a 20% chance of precipitation. Isn't fall weather great?
Lewis is an elite NFL back, while Washington has been very solid vs. The run
this year. That sounds like an even matchup to us.
St. Louis' Marshall Faulk vs. The Seattle
Defense (Neutral Matchup)
Feed the ball to Marshall Faulk and Steven Jackson, gain 36/174/2 as a team
on the ground, win the ballgame by 10 points. What's not to like with this plan,
coach Martz? We've all been wondering. Will the mad bomber head coach stick
with this winning formula? If history is any guide, probably not. Sorry, Faulk
owners. Anyway, Faulk is now the 20th ranked fantasy RB in the land, with 69/313/2
rushing and 16/109/0 receiving to this point in the season. The Rams are tied
for 4th in the NFL averaging 4.8 yards per carry. This team can pound the ball
when the head coach has a mind to do so.
Seattle's rush defense is quite stout this season, ranking 3rd in the NFL allowing
only 71.3 rushing yards per game (0 TDs to date). They blanked the 49ers in
their last game (19/48/0 rushing in the game). They are a shutdown type defensive
front.
LB Chad Brown (fibula, out) and LB Isaiah Kacyvenski (groin, probable) are
listed by Seattle, while the Rams list G Chris Dishman has a sore knee (questionable),
T Scott Tercero (wrist/hand, probable), and RBs Marshall Faulk (shoulder, probable)
and Arlen Harris (hamstring, probable).
The forecast for Qwest Field in Seattle calls for a high of 60F and a low of
47F with a 10% chance for rain.
Faulk and company can get the job done, but so can the Seattle defense - this
is a matchup between two top units.
New York Jets' Curtis Martin vs. The Buffalo
Defense (Neutral Matchup)
Curtis Martin: The #1 fantasy RB in the land with 85/425/4 rushing and 13/63/1
receiving to his credit in only 3 games. Start him if you've got him until further
notice.
Buffalo plays stout rush defense this year, allowing an average of 85 yards
per game (4th in the NFL) and giving away only a single rushing score to date.
Corey Dillon had a respectable game against this unit last week (19/79/1), but
nobody has really blown up the Buffalo defensive front this season. They lead
the AFC in redzone defense, allowing only 3 TDs over 9 tests inside the red
zone this year.
Both teams come into the game in decent shape, although T Jason Fabini has
a sore back (probable).
The forecast for Giants' Stadium calls for a high of 66F and a low of 48F with
a 20% chance of precipitation - excellent football weather, in other words.
Two top units clash in this game - neither has a clear advantage over the other
from where we sit - but Martin is white hot and really shouldn't be sat for
any reason right now.
Miami's Leonard Henry vs. The New England
Defense (Neutral Matchup)
What can be said for Leonard Henry other than this: he is the most successful
RB the Dolphins have tried to plug into their lineup this season. 18/85/0 rushing
and 3/12/0 receiving is a much better mark than any of his predecessors. There
may be some fantasy potential at this position yet, especially as Henry gets
more reps in practices. The team is still the worst in the NFL in terms of yards
per carry (2.7), but Henry managed 4.7 on his attempts thanks to a long run
of 53 yards.
New England's rush defense allowed 26/138/0 rushing to the Bills' Travis Henry
and company last week and currently averages 130 yards allowed per game, so
they are not shutting people down. However, they do fight hard in the red zone,
and have given up only 2 rushing scores to date. Richard Seymour had a huge
game last week, with 2 solo tackles, 1 assist, 1 sack, 1 fumble recovery and
a TD scored after a 68 yard runback of the recovered fumble. LBs Tedy Bruschi
(4 solo tackles, 3 assists, 2 sacks, and 1 forced fumble) and Mike Vrabel (7
solo tackles, 1 sack and 1 pass defensed) were #4 and #5 among IDP LBs last
week.
Miami's OT John St. Clair injured a knee and ankle last week (out). Travis
Minor is also out (ankle). New England is in fine fettle at this point of the
season.
The forecast for Gillette Stadium calls for a high of 61F, a low of 44F, and
a 30% chance for precipitation. If the rain comes down hard at game time, the
field could be slick and ball will be more difficult to get a handle on.
New England is not particularly stout in this phase of the game, and Miami
has found a back who could make some noise this season. We call it an even matchup.
Carolina's DeShaun Foster vs. The Denver
Defense (Neutral Matchup)
Stephen Davis did not practice at all last week, and he's iffy to play this
week, too. The Panthers had a hard time moving the ball against the Falcons,
rushing for 21/67/1 (DeShaun Foster had 19/51/1 on the day). The TD saved Foster
from fantasy oblivion, but it wasn't a very strong game on any level. He has
amassed 54/237/2 rushing and 7/76/0 receiving in relief of Davis, so he's still
a fantasy starter on most squads (16th RB in fantasy points per week, at 14.43),
but he hasn't been explosive in recent weeks.
Denver's defense has been strictly mediocre in this phase during 2004, with
an average of 107.3 rushing yards allowed per game (4 scores surrendered to
date). Tampa's crew averaged 4.6 yards per carry against the Broncos last week
(24/110/0) - the Broncos are not slamming the door on anyone right now.
DE Trevor Pryce continues to rehab his back (out), while LB D.J. Williams is
probable (thigh). RBs Stephen Davis (questionable) and Rod Smart (knee, questionable)
are listed for Carolina.
The forecast for Mile High Stadium calls for a high of 65F and a low of 46F
with a 30% chance of precipitation. That doesn't sound like a forecast for snow,
but cold rain or sleet is always a possibility at this time of year in the high
country - if the precipitation comes down hard around game time, conditions
on the field could be less-than-optimum.
Foster hasn't been flying high recently, and Denver is playing at home this
week. This looks like an even matchup before the fact to us.
New England's Corey Dillon vs. The Miami
Defense (Tough Matchup)
Corey Dillon finally found pay dirt last week, going 19/79/1 on the day (3/23/0
receiving). It was his best fantasy performance of the season. He is the 21st
ranked fantasy RB to date, with 66/323/1 rushing and 4/22/0 receiving so far.
He's a solid #2 fantasy RB right now.
Miami continues to battle hard on defense, despite their travesty of an offense,
but they are allowing a lot of rushing yards right now (134.8 rushing yards
on average) - however, they have only allowed 1 rushing TD to date. Curtis Martin
and the Jets put up 31/110/1 against the Dolphins last week, to claim the only
rushing score allowed to date. Zach Thomas leads the club with 58 tackles to
date.
DT Tim Bowens continues to miss games (back, doubtful), and LB Tony Bua (hamstring,
questionable) is also missing time right now. LB Brendon Ayanbadejo (groin,
probable), as is LB Zach Thomas (shoulder) probable. DE Jay Williams (ankle,
probable) is also listed. New England has done without OT Adrian Klemm for a
few games (foot injury, IR), and RB Kevin Faulk (knee, questionable) hasn't
played yet this season.
The forecast for Gillette Stadium calls for a high of 61F, a low of 44F, and
a 30% chance for precipitation. If the rain comes down hard at game time, the
field could be slick and ball will be more difficult to get a handle on.
Dillon and the Patriots will have a hard battle this week against their division
rivals.
New Orleans' Aaron Stecker/Ki-Jana Carter
vs. The Tampa Bay Defense (Tough Matchup)
New Orleans failed to get much of anything going in the rushing game last week,
with 14/41/0 vs. The Cardinals, but Aaron Stecker did add 6/71/0 receiving to
end up with 94 combined yards, so the outing wasn't a total loss. Ki-Jana Carter
was ineffective with 3/5/0 in a limited appearance. The Saints are tied for
30th in the NFL averaging 3.4 yards per carry - they aren't generating much
in the way of holes for the backs at the point of attack right now.
Tampa is 21st in the NFL right now, allowing an average of 127 rushing yards
per game. They are stouter in the redzone, with 2 scores given up to now. Denver
managed 35/111/0 last week - it's tough to score on these guys.
Tampa lists DT Anthony McFarland (groin) as probable to play. New Orleans says
RB Deuce McAllister is questionable, but he is not expected back in the lineup
yet.
This game is to be played in the Superdome - weather won't be a factor.
New Orleans had a bad game last week, but Stecker still found ways to contribute
to the team. Tampa is no slouch in this phase, but they do give up some real-estate.
Buffalo's Travis Henry vs. The New York
Jets' Defense (Tough Matchup)
Buffalo is not getting the job done up front - the OL has only afforded the
RBs enough room to gain 3.5 yards per carry so far, and they have given up 15
QB sacks to date. That's not good line play, folks. Henry's fantasy stock has
been depressed out of starting range at this point (27th fantasy RB in fantasy
points per game) with 68/240/0 rushing and 6/29/0 receiving to date. There isn't
much reason to celebrate the Bills' offense in general, right now.
The Jets, in contrast, are winning games and playing very respectable rush
defense in the bargain, allowing an average of 107 yards per game with 3 scores
surrendered to date. Miami managed 21/97/0 against this unit last week, while
John Abraham played a one-man wrecking crew against the Dolphins (3 solo tackles,
1 assist, 2 sacks, 1 forced fumble, 1 fumble recovery, and 1 pass defensed,
#2 IDP DL last week).
Sam Cowart missed the game last week for the Jets (knee, out). Meanwhile, the
Bills' staring C Trey Teague (left knee, questionable) and LT Jonas Jennings
(concussion, questionable) were hurt last week, and G Mike Pucillo missed the
game entirely due to his bad back. RB Shaud Williams is doubtful (knee).
The forecast for Giants' Stadium calls for a high of 66F and a low of 48F with
a 20% chance of precipitation - excellent football weather, in other words.
The Bills are not playing well in this phase of the game, and have to visit
the Jets' home stadium in this division-rivalry. Advantage, Jets.
Jacksonville's Fred Taylor vs. The San Diego
Defense (Tough Matchup)
Fred Taylor had a decent game last week, with 21/69/0 rushing and 3/31/0 receiving
- he's starting to get the motor going, anyway. The Jaguar's low scoring offense
is depressing his value somewhat, as he has only 1 rushing TD in the first 4
games (71/264/1 rushing and 4/42/0 receiving), but you know that he is a threat
to bust a big run if he can just penetrate past the first level of the opposing
defensive front.
The Chargers limited the Titans' attack to 18/72/0, which was the first time
this season that Chris Brown hasn't gained at least 100 yards - the Chargers
played well last week. In fact, they've been pretty decent at run D all season,
averaging 85.3 rushing yards allowed per game so far, with 4 rushing scores
allowed to date. Steve Foley was a top IDP LB last week, with 5 solo tackles,
2 assists, 1.5 sacks, and 1 forced fumble to his credit (#7 overall LB).
Jacksonville lost LT Mike Pearson for the season last week (torn ACL). DT Jamal
Williams hurt his abdomen last week (probable), while DE DeQuincy Scott was
inactive due to his bum knee (questionable).
The forecast for Qualcomm Stadium calls for typically beautiful Southern California
weather (71F for a high, 58F for a low, 0% chance of precipitation).
Taylor and the Jags are kind of challenged in this phase of the game right
now, and the Chargers play fair run D - with home field advantage, we give the
edge to San Diego.
Dallas' RBBC vs. The New York Giants' Defense
(Tough Matchup)
Who'll get the most carries this week? That's the big question as Dallas comes
off their bye-week and faces their division-rivals at home. Eddie George was
not impressive in the team's last game (11/19/1), Richie Anderson saw limited
duty (4/20/0 rushing, 1/26/1 passing, 2/41/0 receiving) but was effective in
his chances, while Reshard Lee was not (4/10/0). We're not really excited about
any of these guys, but Anderson has value in point-per-reception leagues in
most weeks. Start a Cowboy's back at your own risk.
The Giants' rush D is playing hard-nosed in the red zone (0 rushing scores
allowed to date), and is in the middle of the NFL pack in terms of yards allowed
per game (113.5, 17th in the NFL). Green Bay managed 19/81/0 against them last
week.
DT Norman Hand (elbow) is listed as questionable for the Giants, and Julius
Jones remains out (shoulder blade) for Dallas.
The Forecast for Texas Stadium calls for a high of 74F and a low of 59F with
a 30% chance for rain. If the rain comes down hard at game time, the field could
get slick and the ball harder to handle.
Dallas is not too sharp in this phase, while the Giants are getting better
each week. Advantage, New York.
Detroit's RBBC vs. The Atlanta Defense (Bad
Matchup)
Kevin Jones is out with an ankle sprain, so we expect to see some combination
of Shawn Bryson and Artose Pinner this week for the Lions. Don't expect a ton
of fantasy points out of either back, but they may do as bye-week filler if
you are truly desperate - one or the other may find the endzone. Bryson had
5/43/0 (1/-1/0 receiving) in relief of Jones two weeks ago, while Pinner managed
6/16/0 with 4/14/0 receiving. Not real pretty, but like we said, if you are
desperate they are warm bodies to plug in. Detroit as a team is tied for 26th
in the league averaging 3.5 yards per carry - the OL is not opening many holes
for the backs right now.
Atlanta's rush D is very stout this year, averaging a mere 62.8 rushing yards
allowed per game, with 2 scores surrendered to date. 21/67/1 was the Carolina
tally last week, right on pace for the Falcons this year. Patrick Kerney was
the top DL in the land last week, with 8 solo tackles, 1 assist, 2 sacks, and
1 forced fumble. This is one hard-nosed defensive front, folks.
LB Jamie Duncan continues to miss games due to his pectoral injury (questionable).
RB Kevin Jones is officially out, while Corey Schlesinger is questionable (hamstring).
This game will be played in the air-conditioned Georgia Dome, so weather isn't
a factor.
The Falcons are a top unit, the Lions field a bottom-feeding rush attack -
a huge edge flows to the home team in this matchup.
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