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Hi Folks, Here's our look at the Rushing Matchups for this week. PLEASE NOTE: This does NOT replace the Cheatsheet ranking. The Cheatsheet rankings are the final say on where we see a player for that week. The Matchup Breakdowns are simply one more tool in the box when it comes to helping choose your lineup. Also note, just because a player has a "bad" matchup, it does NOT mean he's not a starter in your league. If Priest Holmes is playing the toughest rush defense in the league, that just means he's got a tough matchup that week. He's also your starter. In the same way, if the worst RB on your roster has a "great" matchup, that doesn't necessarily mean you start him, it just means he'll likely fare better this week than he normally would. Bottom line, the cheatsheets are the final word. Joe ************************************** Bye Weeks Tennessee's Chris Brown Quick Index Great Matchups Good Matchups Neutral Matchups Tough Matchups Bad Matchup Indianapolis' Edgerrin James vs. The Minnesota Defense (Great Matchup) Edgerrin James did not enjoy his experience last week, as the Colts abandoned the rushing game to chase the explosive Chiefs (only 10/34/0 rushing to his credit, with 6/90/0 receiving). Most weeks, James is much more effective on the ground - he has amassed 151/668/5 rushing and 23/237/0 receiving to date this season. Indianapolis averages 4.2 yards per carry so far this season. The lack of touches was due to the situation, not a problem with James' performance. Minnesota was trampled by Tiki Barber, Mike Cloud, and company last week - 39/168/4 was the damage when it was all over - they are tied for the lead in rushing TDs allowed this season, with 12 6-pointers given up to date. Ouch. The Vikings average about 106 rushing yards given up per game this season, and they are on that pace allowing 109 rushing yards per game over the past 4 weeks, but they have also given up 2 scores per game on average in that span. The Vikes don't scare anyone in this phase. However, this team was an absolute IDP goldmine last week - among DL, 3 Vikes were in the top ten (Lance Johnstone, with 4 solo tackles, 1 assist, 2 sacks and a forced fumble; Kevin Williams with 5 solo tackles and a sack; and Kenny Mixon with 4 solo tackles, 2 assists, and a sack). LB E.J. Henderson also cracked the top ten at his position, with 8 solo tackles, 3 assists, and a pass defensed. Indy lists G Tupe Peko as probable (back), and also reports RB Dominic Rhodes as probable (knee). LB Chris Claiborne continues to struggle with his bad calf (doubtful), while Raonall Smith looks like he's good to go (concussion, probable). This game is to be played in the RCA dome, so weather won't be a factor. James and the Colts should have fun racking up yards and scores in this matchup. Arizona's Emmitt Smith vs. The Miami Defense (Great Matchup) Emmitt Smith has defied Father Time this season, and is running strong behind the Cardinal's offensive line. He's the 17th ranked fantasy back over the past 3 weeks, with an average of 13.25 fantasy points to his credit (48/170/1 rushing and 5/35/0 receiving in 2 games). The Cardinals are subpar as far as yards-per-carry (averaging 3.7 rushing yards per carry - tied for 26th in the NFL), so there is still room for improvement here - but Smith is worthy of starting as a #2 fantasy RB right now. Last week, he managed 22/64/0 rushing and 1/5/0 receiving against the ultra-tough Bills defense. Miami's defense basically melted down on Monday night - they were hammered for 41/275/2 rushing by the Jets' duo of Curtis Martin and LaMont Jordan. It was a horrible performance by this unit - have the Dolphins given up on 2004? We'll begin to get an answer this week when the Cardinals bring their run-oriented offense to town. The Dolphins are 30th in the NFL averaging 148.6 rushing yards allowed per game to date (5 rushing scores) - over the past 4 weeks, that average jumps to 163 yards rushing and 1.0 TDs per game. Miami's woes continue to mount, as LB Junior Seau is now lost for the season due to a torn pectoral muscle that will require surgery (it could end his career). Morlon Greenwood (probable, quadriceps) will step into the lineup to replace Seau. DT Mario Monds is questionable due to a hand injury. LB Brendon Ayanbadejo (back) and DE David Bowens (knee) are both probable. The Cardinals are in good health at this point of the season, excepting RB Josh Scobey, who is questionable due to a lingering knee injury. The forecast for Pro Player Stadium calls for a high of 80F and a low of 64F with a 0% chance for rain. The Cardinals like to pound the ball, while the Dolphins are becoming increasingly vulnerable to the rush. Advantage, Arizona. Dallas' Eddie George/Richie Anderson vs. The Cincinnati Defense (Great Matchup) Dallas just doesn't have much of a rushing attack with this tandem, folks. They are in the middle of the NFL pack averaging 4.0 yards per carry as a team, but have only amassed 706 rushing yards as a team to date (Atlanta leads the league with 1197 rushing yards at this point). Eddie George is the 32nd fantasy RB in fantasy points per game over the last 3 weeks (51/168/1 rushing with 4/28/0 receiving), while Richie Anderson checks in at 39th with 18/84/1 rushing and 7/61/0 receiving. From week to week it's almost impossible to say which guy will deliver more fantasy points on any given Sunday. However, this week is an attractive matchup for George and Anderson, as the limp Bengals are on the docket for the Cowboys. Cincinnati is worst in the league at defending the run, allowing an average of 155.4 yards per game in this phase (6 scores allowed to date). Over the past 4 weeks, they are giving away an average of 142 yards and .3 TDs per game - as you can see, they just aren't very good. Last week, Tennessee's Chris Brown and company slapped down 37/163/1 on the Bengals and made it look easy. Two IDP players cracked the top ten last week, though - DL Duane Clemons had 5 solo tackles and a sack, while LB Kevin Hardy put up 6 solo tackles, 4 assists, 1 sack and a pass defensed. Part of the Bengal's problem is injury-related: the team lists DE Carl Powell (knee, out); LB Brandon Johnson (hip, probable), DT Terrance Mathis (finger, probable) and LB Caleb Miller (ankle, probable). RB Julius Jones remains on the sidelines due to his broken shoulder blade. The forecast for Paul Brown Stadium calls for a high of 53F and a low of 31F with a 30% chance for precipitation. If the moisture comes down hard at game time, the field could get slick and the ball harder to handle - weather could be an "X" factor in this game. The Cowboys don't do a great job in this phase of the game, but the Bengals are woefully inadequate at defending the run. It's a great matchup for the Cowboys. Oakland's Tyrone Wheatley/Amos Zereoue vs. The Carolina Defense (Great Matchup) Oakland had a surprise in store for the Chargers last week (not that it mattered) - Tyrone Wheatley went from "doubtful" to playing, and managed to punch in a TD (4/23/1) - Amos Zereoue managed to waste 6 carries (-1 yard rushing) - if Wheatley's shoulder can hold up through practices this week, we expect to see him back in the mix come Sunday. There isn't much else to write, as the Raiders only attempted 11 runs last week (22 yards and 1 TD as a team). Carolina has been pathetic at run defense this season, ranking 31st in the NFL allowing an average of 152.6 rushing yards per game, and the second-most rushing TDs in the league (10). Their starting MLB Dan Morgan suffered a concussion last week trying to stem the 43/237/1 spanking that the Seahawks administered to Carolina - this team is swirling the bowl at this point in the season, folks. Wheatley is listed as probable this week. Justin Fargas has missed multiple games due to his injured toe (questionable), as has G Ron Stone (toe, doubtful). T Robert Gallery is questionable (groin). Carolina's laundry list of injuries includes LB Dan Morgan (concussion, questionable). DT Kindal Moorehead (shoulder) is questionable. Obviously, injuries have bitten both of these squads in a big way this season. The forecast for Bank of America Stadium calls for a high of 62F and a low of 45F with a 20% chance for precipitation. It sounds like a great day to play football is around the corner in Charlotte. The Raiders' backs won't see a more favorable matchup in a month of Sundays. Which back will benefit is an open question as of midweek - keep a close eye on the later injury reports if you have a Raider back on your bench. Cincinnati's Rudi Johnson vs. The Dallas Defense (Good Matchup) Rudi Johnson managed 17/57/1 rushing and 2/4/0 receiving against the Titans last week, managing to give his fantasy owners some sort of production. He hasn't been exploding very often this season (150/591/4 rushing and 4/8/0 receiving in 7 games), but he's still a top 20 fantasy back worthy of a #2 spot in most leagues. The entire Bengals offense has been going through growing pains along with their young QB in the first half of the season. Dallas' rush defense is nothing special this year, allowing an average of 125 yards per game (24th in the NFL) and 4 rushing TDs to date. Lately (over the past 4 weeks), they've been averaging 127 rushing yards and 1 TD allowed per game - right on their poor seasonal pace. Last week, Detroit rumbled for a mere 14/39/0, though - the Cowboys stymied the Lions. Most of the time this bunch is a lot more giving, though. Dallas comes into the game healthy. Cincinnati's in decent shape, with RB Chris Perry (abdomen, probable) and T Willie Anderson (knee, questionable) as the only guys on the Wednesday injury report. The forecast for Paul Brown Stadium calls for a high of 53F and a low of 31F with a 30% chance for precipitation. If the moisture comes down hard at game time, the field could get slick and the ball harder to handle - weather could be an "X" factor in this game. Johnson has been slowed by the Bengals' offensive struggles, but this week he has good prospects vs. the soft Cowboys. New England's Corey Dillon/Kevin Faulk vs. The St. Louis Defense (Good Matchup) Corey Dillon was a late scratch last week, due to his injured thigh, and Kevin Faulk was utterly ineffective against the Steelers (the team rushed for 6/5/0 during the entire game). Yikes. The team hopes that Dillon is back in the saddle this week (45/220/2 rushing in the 2 games prior to his injury). St. Louis got smashed by the Dolphins before their bye week, and gave away 34/117/2 rushing to the weak Dolphins backs - that was an embarrassing performance. Over the past 4 weeks, the Rams average 120 yards and 1.3 TDs allowed in the rushing phase of the game (they are not doing much right in this phase of the game right now). Those numbers are consistent with their poor season average of 129.7 rushing yards allowed per game (with 8 TDs given up to date). Dillon is listed as questionable to play this week. T Tom Ashworth (back) and RB Patrick Pass (thigh) are also questionable. St. Louis has decent health on their side of the line in this phase of the game, with LB Brandon Chillar (hamstring) and LB Robert Thomas (ankle) both listed as probable. Obviously, Dillon's health is critical to the Patriots' hopes this week. This game is going to be played in the Edward Jones Dome - weather will not be a factor in this matchup. Dillon has been running the ball well when healthy - the Rams, on the other hand, are playing poorly in this phase of the game. This looks like a good matchup for the Patriots. St. Louis' Marshall Faulk/Steven Jackson vs. The New England Defense (Good Matchup) Marshall Faulk's totals in the Rams' last 2 games before the bye: 27/101/1 rushing and 11/103/0 receiving (18th among fantasy RBs in fantasy points per game, at 13.2 per contest). Steven Jackson's totals in the Rams' last 2 games: 19/75/0 rushing and 5/48/0 receiving. The Rams have a two-headed monster at RB nowadays folks, though Faulk is still getting about 60% of the opportunities to carry the ball, and about 75% of the passes to RBs (14 targets to Jackson's 5). However, there is no denying that Faulk's role in the offense has diminished since the arrival of Jackson. New England's rush defense sits at 25th in the NFL allowing an average of 126.6 yards and 5 TDs to date. Over the past 4 weeks, the team averages 124 yards and .8 TDs allowed per game, right on their subpar pace. New England gave up 49/221/1 to the Steelers last week - they had no answers for the Pittsburgh attack. It was a horrible game for owners of the New England team defense. St. Louis lists T Grant Williams (back, probable) and RB Arlen Harris (hamstring, probable). New England says that LB Larry Izzo is questionable with a sore knee. This game is going to be played in the Edward Jones Dome - weather will not be a factor in this matchup. Faulk and Jackson should have good results this week, as the Patriots are subpar in this department. Baltimore's Jamal Lewis vs. The Cleveland Defense (Good Matchup) Jamal Lewis returns to the Ravens' lineup after serving a two-game disciplinary suspension. Hopefully, he won't have lost his "game-shape" conditioning during the layoff - the Ravens would love to rely on his legs rather than Kyle Boller's arm. When he hasn't been suspended, Lewis has amassed 105/494/4 rushing and 1/46/0 receiving for the Ravens - he's the focal point of their offense. However, T Jonathan Ogden missed last week's game (and is questionable for this one) - Lewis struggled early on in the year when Ogden was out of the lineup, as he is likely to be this week. 20/57/0 was his total back in week 1 rushing against the Browns' defensive front. Cleveland is respectable but not great in this phase of the game, allowing an average of 107.4 rushing yards (11th in the NFL) and 8 rushing scores to date. Over the past 4 weeks, they are giving up an average of 116 yards and 1 score per game - not horrible, but not great, either. In week 7 the Eagles managed to rush for 121 yards and 0 scores on the Browns. In addition to Ogden, Baltimore lists RBs B.J. Sams (knee, probable) and Musa Smith (shoulder, probable). Cleveland comes into the game off a bye week, and reports that The forecast for M & T Bank Stadium calls for a high of 61F and a low of 47F with a 20% chance for rain. That sounds like excellent football weather to us. Lewis and company need this game in their division, as do the Browns - expect a dogfight on Sunday. We think that the Ravens have an edge in this phase of the game, despite the poor showing back in week 1. Chicago's Thomas Jones/Anthony Thomas vs. The New York Giants' Defense (Good Matchup) Thomas Jones has a sprained left toe, that could keep him out this weekend. Luckily for the Bears, they have a quality backup in Anthony Thomas who can get the job done - Thomas had 25/98/0 rushing and 4/46/0 receiving in relief of Jones last week, and he has been a 1,000+ yard rusher in this league before. With the team averaging 4.3 yards per carry in 2004 (tied for 11th in the NFL), whoever ends up in the backfield on Sunday should be able to do some good things with the football. The Giants are playing fairly tough defense in this phase of the game, allowing only 3 rushing scores to date while averaging 118.3 rushing yards allowed per game (22nd in the NFL in yards allowed per game). Over the past 4 weeks, though, the team averages slightly more yards allowed per game, at 125, and they have given up 1.0 rushing TDs per game on average - this phase of the game is slipping for the Giants. Last week, the Vikings put up 20/93/1 rushing against the Giants' defensive front. The Giants come into the game listing LB Barrett Green as questionable due to a bad knee. Jones is officially questionable, as is FB Jason McKie (knee). Almost the entire OL is banged up but probable to play: G Ruben Brown (knee), G Mike Gandy (hamstring), C Olin Kreutz (elbow), T John Tait (quadriceps) and G Rex Tucker (elbow) are all listed. The forecast for Giants' Stadium calls for a high of 58F and a low 41F with a 20% chance for precipitation. That's good weather for playing football. The Bears want to pound the ball on the ground, while the Giants have been slipping up in this phase of the game lately. Advantage, Chicago. Kansas City's Priest Holmes vs. The Tampa Bay Defense (Good Matchup) Priest Holmes over the past 3 weeks: 73/357/7 rushing, 10/170/1 receiving (Derrick Blaylock scored 4 TDs against Atlanta, too, making the Chief's haul 11 rushing scores in the past 3 games) - just start him and smile. Tampa Bay plays mediocre run D this season, with an average of 117.6 rushing yards per game and 4 TDs given up to date. Over the past 4 weeks, they've been slightly better, averaging 105 yards and .7 TDs per game in that span. They gave up 20/76/1 to the Bears in their last game, before the bye week. K.C. is dinged up right now, with RBs Derrick Blaylock (thigh, questionable), FB Omar Easy (hamstring, questionable), Priest Holmes (ankle, probable) and Larry Johnson (hip, probable) all on the report. T John Welbourne (knee, probable) is also limping. The Bucs come in off a bye week - they list LBs Derrick Brooks (knee) and Shelton Quarles (leg) are both probable. The forecast for Raymond James Stadium calls for a high of 77F and a low of 57F with a 20% for precipitation. Weather will not be an issue if the forecast holds up. Holmes is on an awesome tear, while Tampa is pretty mediocre in this phase of the game - Advantage, Chiefs. Pittsburgh's Duce Staley/Jerome Bettis vs. The Philadelphia Defense (Good Matchup) And the "vulturing" continues in Pittsburgh. Duce Staley over the last 3 weeks: 43/218/0 rushing and 2/13/0 receiving in 2 games. Jerome Bettis: 20/73/2 rushing during the same span. We feel for the Staley owners out there, really, we do. But, we don't see any reason why coach Cowher would change his approach now (the team is 6-1 with a rookie QB at the helm and Bettis grabbing the goal line work). Staley will pile up yards, but rarely see the endzone, while Bettis "cherry picks" the TDs - especially at home, where he is a crowd favorite (which is where this game is being played). Philly gave up 27/113/0 to the Ravens' tandem of backs last week (Jamal Lewis was out on his league mandated suspension). They are the 17th ranked rush defense in the league this year (113.3 yards allowed per game, with 5 scores surrendered to date). Over the past 4 weeks, the Eagles have averaged 145 rushing yards and 1 rushing score given up per game - including the blanking of the Ravens' backs last week. This is not a top unit, folks. However, Jevon Kearse was a top IDP DL last week, with 4 solo tackles and 2 sacks to his credit. Pittsburgh lists Staley as probable (knee). DT Darwin Walker (calf, probable) and DE Derrick Burgess (elbow, probable), LBs Mark Simoneau (foot, probable) and Dhani Jones (ankle, probable) are all listed by the Eagles. The forecast for Heinz field calls for a high of 52F with a low of 40F and a 40% chance for precipitation. If the rain comes down hard at game time, the field could get slick and the ball could be harder to handle. Pittsburgh has a lethal combination at RB, while the Eagles are suspect in this phase of the game - advantage, Steelers. Seattle's Shaun Alexander vs. The San Francisco Defense (Good Matchup) Seattle went back to basics last week, and the primary beneficiary of the modified offense was Shaun Alexander. He was the focus of the offense, putting up 32/195/1 rushing with 3/13/1 receiving - it was a classic "boom" game for Alexander. However, keep in mind that the Panthers are extremely soft vs. The run, so the team was likely to magnify Alexander's role to take advantage of the matchup in any case. Nobody would complain about such a bonanza of fantasy points - congrats to the Alexander owners out there. If the team sticks with this new approach, he could be a fantasy goldmine in the second half of the season. San Francisco is not a feared run defense, allowing an average of 115.3 rushing yards per game this year (19th in the NFL) and they are tied for second-most rushing scores allowed at 10. Over the past 4 weeks, the 49ers have coughed up 125 rushing yards and 1.3 scores per game, and come into this matchup Bear's backup Anthony Thomas ripped them for 25/98/0 on the ground last week (the Bears totaled 33/120/0 on the day) - it's pretty easy to rush the ball against these guys. DL Bryant Young was a top IDP player last week, with 10 solo tackles, 2 sacks, and a fumble recovery. LB Jamie Winborn also cracked the top ten at LB, with 5 solo tackles and 2 sacks. Part of San Francisco's problem is injuries: LB Ray Wells (ankle), DE Brandon Whiting (knee) are both out this week (Whiting has been lost for the season); DEs Andre Carter (back, questionable) and Andrew Williams (shin, questionable) and LBs Richard Seigler (foot, questionable) Saleem Rasheed (knee, probable) are all on the injury report Wednesday. Seattle lists G Steve Hutchinson (leg, questionable) and RB Maurice Morris (concussion, questionable). The forecast for Monster Stadium calls for a high of 68F and a low of 54F with
a 0% Shaun Alexander is being leaned on in the Seattle attack right now, and he is on a tear. San Francisco is beat up and vulnerable in this phase of the game - advantage, Seattle. Detroit's Kevin Jones vs. The Washington Defense (Good Matchup) Kevin Jones continues to be limited to a few carries each week, not due to injury, but because the Lions aren't controlling their games right now and are often behind by a large margin. Jones had 11/36/0 rushing and 4/11/1 receiving last week, to save his fantasy owners from utter ruin, but it was not a standout performance. If Roy Williams can return to action this week, Jones may find more room to maneuver as the Redskins will have to respect the pass more with Williams in the lineup. Washington's rush D started out strong, allowing an average of 86.9 yards per game (with only 4 scores surrendered to date). They are more generous in recent games, coughing up 123 rushing yards and .7 TDs per game over the past 4 weeks - the team is heading in the wrong direction. Green Bay blew them up for two scores last week rushing 28/88 - half of the TDs the unit has allowed this season. Detroit lists RB Stephen Trejo (knee, doubtful) and FB Corey Schlesinger (hamstring, probable) this week, while the Skins will likely do without LBs LaVar Arrington (knee, out) and Michael Barrow (knee, questionable) - both have missed many games in a row - while DT Cornelius Griffin (back, probable) and DE Phillip Daniels (groin, probable) look like they will play this weekend. This game will be played in Ford Field, so weather won't be a factor. Jones will find some chances to make good things happen against the fading and limping Redskins. Minnesota's Mewelde Moore/Michael Bennett/Onterrio Smith vs. The Indianapolis Defense (Good Matchup) So, who will start for the Vikings this week? Who will get the most carries? Mewelde Moore was listed as probable on the injury report with is ankle but recent reports say he might miss the game. Stay tuned. Michael Bennett is not listed on the injury report any more, and he scored the TD last week. Oh, let's not forget that Onterrio Smith is now back from his suspension. Frankly, it's anybody's guess what will happen in this game, with Moss's status up in the air (hamstring, questionable) and a likely shoot-out vs. Indy on the horizon - Bennett, Moore or Smith could see action split out in the passing game as receivers. We'll have a better feel for what the mix is going to be next week, after this game with all 4 (let's not forget Moe Williams) backs available for action. Start a Viking back at your peril this week. Indianapolis is pathetic at defending against the pass (dead last, allowing 305.9 passing yards per game this season), which may limit the Viking's urgency to run the ball. If they do pound it against the Colts, the Vikings are likely to enjoy success, as the Colts are only mediocre at rush D (16th in the NFL allowing an average of 112.9 yards per contest, with 6 scores surrendered to date). As the Vikings are the top-ranked rush offense in the league averaging 5.0 yards per carry, they may be tough for Indy to handle - the Colts allowed an average of 128 rushing yards and 1.3 TDs in this phase of the game over the last 4 weeks. Last week, Priest Holmes stuffed in 32/143/3 in 60 minutes (the Chiefs racked up 42/203/3 on the day) - that's not rush "D", folks. The Colts' defensive front more closely resembles a welcome mat than a fence. Indianapolis lists LB Kenyon Whiteside as out (knee). Moore (ankle) and C Cory Withrow (knee) are both probable to play as of Wednesday. This game is to be played in the RCA dome, so weather won't be a factor. This is a good matchup for the Viking's offense - but which back will benefit is an open question. San Francisco's Kevan Barlow vs. The Seattle Defense (Neutral Matchup) Kevan Barlow had a tough time against the Seahawks back in week 3 (10/22/0 rushing and 2/14/0 receiving), and not a whole lot has changed since then. Ken Dorsey may be the starting QB again this week, and the 49er OL is tied for 26th in the league averaging 3.7 yards per carry to date. Barlow scraped together 18/56/0 rushing and 3/16/0 receiving vs. The Bears last week - it was not a stellar outing. Barlow has 39/135/1 rushing and 4/25/0 receiving to his credit in the last 3 weeks (2 games) - ranking 25th among fantasy RBs in fantasy points per game (11 per game). Seattle is tough in this phase of the game, allowing an average of 99.6 rushing yards per week, with 4 scores surrendered to date. Over the past 4 weeks, they are averaging 121 rushing yards allowed and 1 TD per game, so they are moving in the wrong direction heading into the second half of the season (Grant Wistrom's knee injury may have something to do with the slide). Seattle held the Panther's reserves to 20/94/0 last week, but it wasn't much of a test. Wistrom is out, as is 49er C Jeremy Newberry (knee). The forecast for Monster Stadium calls for a high of 68F and a low of 54F with a 0% chance for rain. If the forecast holds up, it will be a great day to play football down by the Bay. Barlow is under performing this year, while the Seahawks are regressing in this phase of the game. This matchup looks pretty even to us. Tampa Bay's Michael Pittman vs. The Kansas City Defense (Neutral Matchup) Mike Alstott is out for several weeks (knee), so Michael Pittman will need to take the Tampa rushing attack on his shoulders in this game. Pittman has been effective since his return, and over the past 3 weeks (2 games) he is the 8th ranked fantasy RB in fantasy points per game (16.85 fantasy points per game, with 36/146/1 rushing and 6/71/1 receiving). Tampa has not been strong along the OL this season, managing an average of 3.5 yards per rush to date (29th in the NFL). Pittman has bettered that average significantly, though, at 4.05 yards per rush during the last 2 games. Kansas City has been strictly mediocre at rush defense, averaging 112 yards allowed per game (15th in the NFL) and giving up 5 scores to date. However, the team has stiffened in recent weeks, with an average of 84 rushing yards allowed and .3 TDs per game over the past 4 weeks. Edgerrin James and the Colts chased the Chiefs last week, which limited the number of carries the team attempted last week (12/33/0 rushing total). DTs Junior Siavii (ankle, questionable) and Ryan Sims (hamstring, probable) are dinged up for the Chiefs, while LB Monty Beisel is likely to sit (calf, doubtful). The forecast for Raymond James Stadium calls for a high of 77F and a low of 57F with a 20% for precipitation. Weather will not be an issue if the forecast holds up. Tampa's offense has been gathering some momentum in recent weeks, while the Chief's rush defense has been getting stronger, as well. This looks like a fairly even matchup to us. New York Giants' Tiki Barber vs. The Chicago Defense (Neutral Matchup) Tiki Barber is enjoying a season for the record-books. He is simply awesome this year, and is a certified fantasy goldmine. Congratulations to everyone who was wise (or lucky) enough to make him a component of your fantasy squad. He's paying off huge dividends (142/748/6 rushing and 27/352/1 receiving in only 7 games). This guy is only getting more explosive as the season goes on and the Giant's OL is playing at a very high level in the rushing phase of the game - start him if you've got him. Mike Cloud has seized the short yardage/plunge back duties from Ron Dayne (although Cloud did get knocked out of the game with a head injury/slight concussion last week) and looks like he may score some TDs as the team's power back. The Chicago Bears do not rate highly as far as yards allowed per game this season, coughing up an average of 128.3 rushing yards per game, but they get stubborn in the redzone, allowing only 2 rushing scores to date. Over the past 4 weeks, they average 139 rushing yards allowed per game, but have given up only .3 TDs per outing. It's tough to score on the Bears on the ground. San Francisco only managed 23/62/0 running the ball against the Bears last week - they've been on top of their game lately. Brian Urlacher, sore hamstring and all, was a top IDP LB last week, with 5 solo tackles, an assist, 2 sacks and a pass defensed. One big problem for Chicago is that Brian Urlacher's sore hamstring just isn't getting any better. Some reports over the weekend indicated that Urlacher was contemplating IR as a result of this injury. The Giants come into this one with C Shaun O'Hara still doubtful due to his infected leg injury. DE Adewale Ogunleye is questionable due to his calf injury. The forecast for Giants' Stadium calls for a high of 58F and a low 41F with a 20% chance for precipitation. That's good weather for playing football. Tiki Barber is playing with a full toolbox of skills right now - he's elusive and explosive - while the Bears are hanging tough, but may be without their best linebacker - if Urlacher can play, this is a neutral matchup. If he's out come Sunday, though, then Barber has a better shot at a quality game. Denver's Reuben Droughns vs. The Houston Defense (Neutral Matchup) Reuben Droughns was a forgotten component of the Denver offense last week, as the Broncos played catch-up to the Falcons (Plummer had 499 yards passing). In that situation, Droughns had 15/49/0 rushing (but he was a big part of the receiving picture, with 6 targets for 6/63/0). Denver doesn't often end up desperately behind in games, so we think the poor showing rushing the ball was an aberration and not a trend. Droughns has been a fantasy goldmine. since he won the job - an occasional "off" week is to be expected. Houston's defense did a great job against the Jaguars' Fred Taylor and company last week (Taylor left the game early with an injury) - 12/39/0 was the total that the Jags managed to scrape together vs. Houston. Points have been tough to come by against the Texans, who are tied for second-least TDs allowed in this phase of the game (3) - they are 18th in yards allowed, currently 113.9 per game this season. Over the past 4 weeks, they are much better, with an average of 87 rushing yards per game and 0 TDs per contest. This is a pretty stout defense heading into the second half of the season. Jamie Sharper is a big part of this unit's success, with 9 solo tackles, 4 assists, and a forced fumble to his credit last week (he was a top ten IDP LB last week). Denver lists G Dan Neil (groin, knee, probable). RB Tatum Bell is questionable due to his bad hamstring. Houston is in good shape in this phase of the game, with DT Jerry DeLoach (ankle) and DE Corey Sears (ill) both probable to play. The forecast for Mile High Stadium calls for a high of 63F and a low of 37F with a 10% chance for precipitation. It should be crisp day to play a game of football. Houston plays very stout run defense, but the Broncos are a powerful rushing team in most weeks - this is an even matchup between top-performing units. San Diego's LaDainian Tomlinson/Jesse Chatman vs. The New Orleans' Defense (Neutral Matchup) The good news is that LaDainian Tomlinson's sore groin wasn't a big issue last week - "I'm excited that it didn't give me too much of a problem." was Tomlinson's comment after the game - but he did give way to Jesse Chatman as the Chargers put the game out of reach (42-14 over the Raiders) before halftime last week. Tomlinson wound up with 19/71/1 rushing and 1/7/0 receiving on the day, while Chatman racked up 12/69/0 in his chances. Considering that Tomlinson's groin is still tender, we expect to see some more sharing of the ball this week - Tomlinson should still garner the most carries, though. New Orleans is very soft in this phase of the game, allowing 9 rushing TDs (3rd-most in the NFL to date) and an average of 141.3 rushing yards per game. Not good, not good at all. Over the past 4 weeks, though, they have toughened up, giving away 117 rushing yards per game, but 0 TDs in this phase of the game in their past 3 games. 23/82/0 was the total that the Raiders managed 2 weeks ago - this unit is getting stronger as the season rushes past. San Diego describes Tomlinson as probable this week, as are Jesse Chatman (toe) and Lorenzo Neal (neck). New Orleans comes off a bye week, and lists DE Darren Howard (knee) and LB Courtney Watson (knee) as questionable. The forecast for Qualcomm Stadium calls for a high of 70F and a low of 53F with a 30% chance for rain. Hopefully, the rain will not come down hard at game time - otherwise, the conditions sound like great football weather. Tomlinson is almost unstoppable when he is healthy, but right now he is liable to be limited in his fantasy points due to his injury. The Saints were finding their game in this phase before the bye-week - we see this as an even matchup due to Tomlinson's injury issue. Carolina's Brad Hoover/Stephen Davis vs. The Oakland Defense (Neutral Matchup) The Panthers eked out 20/94/0 vs. Seattle, headlined by Joey Harris (9/45/0) - but he was injured by the end of the game (shoulder contusion) and standing on the sidelines. With almost all their backs banged up, the Panthers are in dire straits if Stephen Davis can't bounce back from his injured knee this week (he's listed as questionable but did participate some in Wednesday's practice. Watch his progress this week.). Oakland's rush D is only slightly better than Carolina's sorry unit, averaging 130.6 rushing yards allowed per game (28th in the NFL) and they are tied for 3rd-most rushing scores allowed this season (9). Maybe Norv Turner was saying something about that to Warren Sapp last week? John Tayman's (Bang!) "twinkies" cartoon was right on target, it appears - you have to wait until the Raiders' segment near the end. Anyway, over the past 4 weeks the numbers are even bleaker, showing the Raiders averaging 155 rushing yards and 1.3 TDs allowed per game. San Diego trampled them for 38/175/1 in the most recent travesty. There just isn't much positive to say about this unit. Carolina's injury report closely resembles their RB roster, as they are very banged up this year. DeShaun Foster is on IR due to his broken collarbone, Rod Smart (knee, questionable) and Stephen Davis (knee, questionable) have injuries, and Joey Harris has that sore shoulder (not listed). T Todd Fordham (knee, probable) will probably play. Oakland lists LB Travian Smith (knee, doubtful), LB Danny Clark (knee, probable) and DT Ted Washington (ribs, probable). The forecast for Bank of America Stadium calls for a high of 62F and a low of 45F with a 20% chance for precipitation. It sounds like a great day to play football is around the corner in Charlotte. Two weak units face off in this one - it's not clear which squad is worse than the other. New York Jets' Curtis Martin vs. The Buffalo Defense (Neutral Matchup) Curtis Martin: 64/296/3 rushing and 6/33/0 receiving in his last 3 games (7th-best fantasy RB in the league during that span). 171/798/7 rushing and 25/119/1 receiving in 7 games this season. The Jets average 4.8 yards per carry, tied for 3rd best in the NFL at this point in the season. Back in week 3, he was "limited" to 22/77/0 rushing and 6/23/0 receiving vs. The Bills (100 yards combined). Start him if you've got him. Buffalo is very tough to score on in this phase of the game, allowing a mere 3 rushing TDs to date (and ranking 4th in the NFL allowing only 97 yards rushing per game). Over the past 4 weeks, they are giving up 106 rushing yards per game, and .5 TDs per contest - this is one of the best Ds in the NFL, folks. Arizona bucked the statistics last week, managing 38/128/1 vs. The Bills (only a 3.4 yards per carry average, however). The Jets come into the game banged up on the OL - G Brent Smith (knee) is doubtful; G Brandon Moore hamstring is questionable. The Bills are in good shape. Injuries aren't a huge issue in this matchup. The forecast for Ralph Wilson Stadium calls for a high of 43F with a low of 30F and a 40% chance of precipitation. If the moisture comes down hard at game time, the field conditions could deteriorate and ball-handling could get tricky. Visibility could also be an issue if snow comes down thickly - weather may be a factor in this game. Martin is playing at the peak of his considerable abilities right now, while the Bills have been slipping in this phase of the game lately. Home field advantage helps even the playing field - we call this a neutral matchup. Buffalo's Willis McGahee vs. The New York Jets' Defense (Tough Matchup) Willis McGahee has returned the Bills' rushing attack to respectability since ascending to the starting lineup (72/271/2 rushing and 5/41/0 receiving in the past 3 games), including a fine 30/102/2 performance rushing the ball against the tough Cardinals' defense (who had not allowed a rushing TD all season until last week). He has averaged 3.7 yards per carry during that span, which is right in line with the team's usual pace this season (tie 26th in the NFL). He led the Bills in rushing vs. The Jets back in week 5 (8/42/0), so he has enjoyed some success against this opponent already this year. The Jets are in the top ten among NFL rush defenses, averaging 101.6 rushing yards allowed per game (8th in the NFL), with only 4 scores given up to date. Over the past 4 weeks, the team averages 98 rushing yards and .3 TDs surrendered per game. They choked off Sammy Morris and company on Monday night (16/78/0, with a QB scramble of 26 yards making the tale look better than it really was). This is a stout defensive front heading into the second half of the season. DT Jason Ferguson racked up 3 solo tackles, an assist, and 1.5 sacks last night to crack the top ten among IDP DLs. Buffalo lists C Trey Teague as questionable (knee). The Jets have LBs Jason Glenn (forearm, out) and Sam Cowart (knee, probable) on their injury report. The forecast for Ralph Wilson Stadium calls for a high of 43F with a low of 30F and a 40% chance of precipitation. If the moisture comes down hard at game time, the field conditions could deteriorate and ball-handling could get tricky. Visibility could also be an issue if snow comes down thickly - weather may be a factor in this game. McGahee is doing well in his first few games, but the Jets are a division rival, playing solid rush D right now, and they are on a hunt for a playoff spot. This looks like a tough challenge for the young RB. Washington's Clinton Portis vs. The Detroit Defense (Tough Matchup) Clinton Portis is the 13th ranked fantasy RB in the league at the halfway point, largely due to a lack of scoring on the part of the Redskins' offense (170/663/2 rushing and 23/140/1 receiving to date). Washington is 25th in the league in yards-per-carry at 3.8, not exactly what Portis owners envisioned when they spent a first round pick on Portis. Over the past 3 weeks, he has 53/241/0 rushing and 8/28/0 receiving in 2 games - decent, but not extraordinary (which is what Portis was when he played for Denver). He's a starter in most leagues, but as a #2 RB, not a #1. Detroit's rush D is pretty respectable this season, ranking 11th in the NFL allowing an average of 107.4 rushing yards and a total of 6 scores to date. Not too shabby. Over the past 4 weeks they are averaging 113 yards allowed per game and .8 TDs per contest. Last week, Dallas conjured up 41/127/1 as a team - the Lions did not get manhandled, but they didn't shut down Dallas, either. Earl Holmes was a top IDP LB with 11 solo tackles and 4 assists last week. Washington is in good shape in this phase of the game, while Detroit is down 2 LBs - Boss Bailey has missed the entire season with a knee injury, and Donte Curry is doubtful due to his bad knee - LB James Darling is questionable (knee). T Chris Samuels is probable for Washington (ankle), while RB/KR Chad Morton is out (knee). This game will be played in Ford Field, so weather won't be a factor. Washington's offense is just not clicking right now, while the Lions' rush D tends to be fairly steady - the advantage flows to the home team. Cleveland's William Green/Lee Suggs vs. The Baltimore Defense (Tough Matchup) The Browns did not fare too well in this phase of the game back in week 1, when William Green ran the ball 22 times for 65 yards and 0 scores vs. The Ravens (James Jackson added 4/7/0, Garcia rushed 3 times for 13 yards and a score). However, the team has grown into a pretty potent offense in the interim, and gained 34/165/3 rushing vs. The Philadelphia Eagles before going on bye (15/78/1 for Lee Suggs, 14/64/1 for William Green, 4/21/1 for Garcia that Sunday). The "two-headed monster" of Suggs and Green seems to be working out fairly well right now - both of them have opportunities to gain yards and score TDs as they are currently being utilized. Baltimore is never easy to run on, though, and currently averages 100 rushing yards allowed per game (7th in the NFL), with only 3 rushing scores allowed all season. Over the past 4 weeks, they have been even stouter, averaging 78 rushing yards allowed per game, and 0 TDs rushing during that span. Last week, Philadelphia (sans Brian Westbrook) managed 23/98/0 against this defensive front. The Ravens don't get pushed around very often. The Browns come into this game off a bye week, and should be in good health. The Ravens have no major complaints, but list LB Ray Lewis as probable (knee). The forecast for M & T Bank Stadium calls for a high of 61F and a low of 47F with a 20% chance for rain. That sounds like excellent football weather to us. This game is a division rivalry, and at the Ravens' house it's going to be tough running for William Green and Lee Suggs. Miami's Sammy Morris/Travis Minor vs. The Arizona Defense (Tough Matchup) Miami threw Sammy Morris at the Jets 11 times (48 yards, 0 TDs), while Travis Minor saw 4 carries (4 yards and 0 TDs). Morris also snagged 3 passes (for 12 yards and 0 TDs) - the team was far behind for much of the game, so Morris was not a focal point of the game as Jay Fiedler was forced to put the ball up 41 times. The Dolphins are the worst in the league at rushing the ball, with a yards-per-carry average of only 3.2 yards per tote. Arizona allowed 38/128/2 to the Bills last week - they did not shut down their opponent last week. Over the past 4 weeks, though, their opponents have averaged only 85 yards and .7 TDs given up per game - the Bills game was atypical in that respect. In fact, the Cardinals have only given up 2 TDs all season in this phase of the game. Usually, they are very tough to run on. James Darling was a top IDP LB last week, with 11 solo tackles and 2 assists. Miami lists Sammy Morris as probable (wrist), and G Jeno James as probable (knee). LB Gerald Hayes (thigh) is probable for Arizona. The forecast for Pro Player Stadium calls for a high of 80F and a low of 64F with a 0% chance for rain. Miami does not field a robust offense, while the Cardinals are usually very hard-nosed in this phase of the game. Advantage, Arizona. Houston's Domanick Davis vs. The Denver Defense (Tough Matchup) Houston's offense has been gathering steam in recent weeks, and Domanick Davis tried to spark the running game against the tough Jaguars last week, managing to rack up 22/56/0 rushing and 5/39/0 receiving. It wasn't a great game, but he did score some points for fantasy owners in leagues where yardage translates into points. The best news after the game was that Davis didn't get injured in the game. Over the past 3 weeks, he's been limited to 32/81/0 rushing and 5/39/0 receiving (2 games) - most of that coming in last week's outing. Houston has had trouble generating push off the OL all season, and comes into the game averaging 3.3 yards per carry - not too good. Only Miami averages less yardage per carry this season. Denver's rush D is in the top ten among NFL defensive fronts, with an average of 106.5 rushing yards allowed per game (8 scores surrendered to date). Over the past 4 weeks they are tracking right on their season pace, allowing an average of 106 rushing yards per game and 1 TD per game. However, Atlanta blew them up for 36/195/2 last week - the Broncos were beaten up in both phases of the game. The Broncos continue to go without DE Trevor Pryce (back surgery, out). LB Patrick Chukwurah is probable to play (knee). Houston is good to go in this phase of the game. The forecast for Mile High Stadium calls for a high of 63F and a low of 37F with a 10% chance for precipitation. It should be crisp day to play a game of football. Houston has been revving up the passing game, but the OL isn't helping Davis very much at this point in the season. Denver usually plays stout rush D, but were knocked back on their heels last week - in Mile High Stadium, we give Denver's unit the nod. New Orleans' Deuce McAllister vs. The San Diego Defense (Tough Matchup) Deuce McAllister didn't manage much in the way of yardage before the bye week (24/42), but punched in 2 scores in the Saints' victory over Oakland. The bye week should have helped him get his ankle sprain straightened out - we think he'll be closer to 100% this week, which should help pump up his production. New Orleans' OL is not playing very well this year, as evidenced by the teams' subpar yards-per-carry average (3.9, tied for 23rd in the league). San Diego is quietly becoming a force in the AFC West, and their team is currently 1st in the NFL in run defense, allowing a mere 81.5 rushing yards per game this season. The team has given up 8 rushing scores to date - over the past 4 weeks they average 1 TD allowed on the ground per game, but only 78 yards rushing per game. This is a team positioned to make a run at the playoffs, folks. Oakland managed a mere 11/22/1 against this unit last week (the Raiders were blown out 42-14). New Orleans comes off a bye week, in good health. San Diego reports no problems, either. The forecast for Qualcomm Stadium calls for a high of 70F and a low of 53F with a 30% chance for rain. Hopefully, the rain will not come down hard at game time - otherwise, the conditions sound like great football weather. Deuce McAllister was limited in effectiveness before the bye week due to his nagging injury - but he should be OK after the bye week. San Diego is quite stout in this phase of the game - we call this a tough matchup for the visiting Saints. Philadelphia's Dorsey Levens/Reno Mahe vs. The Pittsburgh Defense (Bad Matchup) Brian Westbrook is questionable as of midweek, meaning that the Eagles may need to rely on Dorsey Levens and Reno Mahe again this week as the engines in the Philadelphia ground game. Levens managed 12/40/0 rushing against the tough Ravens' front last week, while Mahe contributed 5/22/0. It wasn't anywhere near a fantasy bonanza, but the Eagles managed to claim another "W". Look for a similar sharing of the ball this week if Westbrook can't go. Pittsburgh's defense is really stingy in this phase of the game (averaging only 89.3 yards allowed per game on the ground, with 4 scores surrendered to date). They adjusted to the loss of NT Casey Hampton just fine last week, throttling the Patriots' remaining backs - 6/5/0 was the Patriots' sum total on the ground last week (that's not a typo, folks). Over the past 4 weeks, the team has averaged only 68 yards and .3 TDs allowed on the ground - Pittsburgh is "on" in this phase of the game. LB Joey Porter was a great IDP play last week with 5 solo tackles, 3 assists, 3 sacks, 2 forced fumbles and a pass defensed. Talk about one-man wrecking crews! LB Kendrell Bell may finally play this week for the Steelers (sports hernia, probable), and fellow LB Clark Haggins is also probable (foot). Philly reports that G Jermane Mayberry (calf, questionable), RB Brian Westbrook (rib, questionable), RB Reno Mahe (wrist, probable) and T Jon Runyan (groin, probable). The forecast for Heinz field calls for a high of 52F with a low of 40F and a 40% chance for precipitation. If the rain comes down hard at game time, the field could get slick and the ball could be harder to handle. Philadelphia is likely to be using backup RBs this week, while the Steelers are a top-tier rush D playing out of their minds right now. Advantage, Pittsburgh. |
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