|
|
Login / Signup | ||
|
How much, if any advantage is it to draft number one overall in a fantasy draft? Does drafting in the middle of the draft hurt or help? In addition, how much of a hindrance is it to be stuck at the bottom of your draft? One thing is for sure and that is your draft strategy will vary depending on which slot you draft from. While competing in fantasy football over the years, I have drafted everywhere from first overall down to sixteenth overall in a large fantasy league. I have found that all draft positions can have benefits as well as negatives but some are more beneficial than others. This article will take a look at all twelve positions an owner can draft from in a standard twelve team league with these scoring rules and what the strategy should be for the first six rounds of the draft. I will also go through a mock draft until round six and take a look at whom an owner should take with each pick. There is no reason for any team, picking from any slot to not have a solid foundation after six rounds. Notes about this study
Scoring Rules
The Draft Unfolds
Drafting from the # 1 slot General Thoughts Just like a year ago, there are a numbers of running backs that have the ability and situation to be drafted first overall. Because of that fact, going 1st overall is not as appealing as it was in years past. This first pick overall is pretty simple. You simply take the best running back on the board. If your top running back is Priest Holmes of the Chiefs, he would be the first pick overall. If you believe Ahman Green is going to put up numbers similar to 2003, he could certainly be the first pick of the draft. And of course if neither of those players is your guy, there happens to be a star by the name of LaDainian Tomlinson who goes first in many of the fantasy drafts this season. Getting a top running back on board allows the owner picking 1st overall to be flexible with his strategy throughout the next few picks. Because there is a stud running back already on board, the owners can go many different ways with his next two picks at 24 and 25 overall. He can simply take the best two players left on the board without worrying about filling particular positions. If the best two players are receivers or if one is a receiver and one is a quarterback, this owner has no hesitation in landing those players. Slot 1 Round 1: RB Priest Holmes, 1st overall - This pick is easy. Simply take the best running back on your list. In this case, you start off the squad with the talented Holmes who scored multiple touchdowns in ten games a year ago. Round 2/3: WR Terrell Owens, 24th overall, QB Peyton Manning, 25th overall - Again, the plus of having an early draft pick is it gives you the flexibility to go a number of different ways in rounds two through six. Having a stud running back already on board enables this owner to look at other positions with these two picks. It is tempting to go running back with one of the picks here and I could see going that route instead of quarterback. However landing both Manning and Owens here gives this owner the jump on the other owners at three different positions and gives him a potential top five player at QB, RB and WR. Heck of a way to begin a draft. Round 4/5: RB Lee Suggs, 48th overall, RB Travis Minor, 49th overall - If this owner goes Suggs and Minor with these picks gives the owner two potential starters capable of putting up 1,000 yard rushing seasons with their respective teams. The potential downfall is that neither player is guaranteed to get enough carries to reach that figure but both could also greatly exceed their draft position this season. After the 5th round pick, this owner is sitting pretty with a stud quarterback, running back and receiver and two running backs with lots of potential this season. He is well on his way to a successful season. Round 6: WR Marty Booker, 72nd overall - The plan here should be to take the top receiver left on your draft board unless exceptional value exists at tight end or running back. If Jeremy Shockey, Tony Gonzalez or Todd Heap is available here, you would have to take one of them but the best play here would likely be to grab a receiver. Roster After Six Rounds
Thoughts on roster so far This foundation of this roster is very strong. Included in this group are a top-3 quarterback in Peyton Manning, a top-3 running back in Priest Holmes and a top-5 receiver in Terrell Owens. The best part of having an early pick is it allows the owner to be more flexible than an owner towards the bottom of a draft. With a 'Stud-RB' already in place, the owner can afford to look elsewhere to land excellent talent at the other main positions. If an owner does only take one running back in the first three rounds though, it is very important that he targets running backs in two of the next three rounds in order to avoid a big hole in the running back stable. There is risk attached to both Lee Suggs and Travis Minor but if they do indeed start, this roster will be one of the favorites to win it all going into the season as it should with the luxury of drafting 1st overall. Draft Strategy going forward This team is already well rounded and should continue to simply take the best player each round. With no glaring holes through six rounds, the rest of the draft should prove remarkably easy for this team. When you take a quarterback in the first three rounds, the best strategy is to wait as long as possible before adding the backup quarterback. Usually, if I take a quarterback in round two/three I will hold off on taking my backup until I have at least all of my starters at the other main positions (RB, WR, TE) as well as at least one backup at both the running back and receiver position. That means I would target my backup quarterback no earlier than round nine unless awesome value presented itself earlier. Doesn't help your fantasy team to pick up two quarterbacks early unless you plan on trading one of them going forward. Drafting from the # 2 slot General Thoughts This year, I would much rather draft 2nd to 7th than 1st overall. The talent difference between the top ranked running back and the 7th best running back is marginal and the value will be greater in the 2nd round for the owners drafting after the 1st pick. Much like the 1st overall pick, the owner drafting in this slot has the luxury of drafting the best player on the board early on instead of trying to solidify the running back position in the first two rounds. Slot 2 Round 1: RB LaDainian Tomlinson, 2nd overall - Take the best running back on the board with no hesitations. In this case it is Tomlinson. Round 2: WR Chad Johnson, 23rd overall - There are a number of different ways an owner can go here and it really depends on the ebb and flow of the draft. If there are no running backs worth selecting here, don't hesitate to look at QB and WR as the owner in slot one ultimately did. With a talent such as Johnson, the choice is pretty easy to go receiver with this pick. Round 3: RB Brian Westbrook, 26th overall - The best choice here after picking up one running back and one receiver is to select your second running back. If Manning or Culpepper are still on the board, that could also be a strong pick. Simply take your top-rated running back here. Round 4: WR Koren Robinson, 47th overall - Again, you can look many different directions here. You could go running back and strengthen your group at that position, you could look at quarterback or you can take a look at a receiver. Hasselbeck is intriguing here but with the # 1 owner already having a quarterback in his stable, it is best to hold off and look at another position with this pick. Robinson is clearly the best bet with this pick and gives this owner a sizzling one-two punch at the position. Round 5: QB Matt Hasselbeck, 50th overall - Hasselbeck made it back to your next pick and he is an easy choice here. Could slip into the top three in 2004. Round 6: RB Eddie George, 71st overall - With only two running backs on board, it is important to get your third before the end of round six. George isn't flashy at this point in his career but should represent really nice value with the 71st overall pick. Roster After Six Rounds
Thoughts on roster so far Having a running back tandem of Tomlinson/Westbrook is a great start to a squad and a potential push to a championship. Both are guaranteed lots of touches if healthy including catching a ton of passes and will have outstanding production. This squad is talented at both running back and receiver with an awesome duo at the latter with Johnson and Robinson. Add in a potential top-three quarterback in Hasselbeck and this roster is off to a flying start. Draft Strategy going forward This owner can simply look for value going forward with the top three positions already sitting pretty. This owner is in a great position to have a strong midpoint of the draft. Drafting from the # 3 slot General Thoughts Drafting 3rd overall puts the fantasy owner in a great position this year. There is little to no difference in potential fantasy numbers between the top pick this year and the third player and even the 7th pick and McAllister or even Green could easily end up the fantasy MVP this season. Again as in every slot, it is really effective to come out of the sixth round in a draft with three solid running backs. If an owner only ends up with one running back after six rounds, he will be fighting his way through the rest of the draft, praying for miracles. Again, as in the earlier slots, don't be afraid here to target positions other than running back. Just remember to pick up two running backs in the next three rounds. Slot 3 Round 1: RB Deuce McAllister, 3rd overall - Personally I would rather have Green here than McAllister but I believe both could be better than the first two taken (Holmes and Tomlinson). McAllister is a great back but for the owner drafting here, once again it is a simple choice. Take the best running back available and run with it. Round 2: QB Daunte Culpepper, 22nd overall - Culpepper simply represents the best talent with this pick and allows this owner to ignore the quarterback position until later, building depth at the other positions. I usually shy away from taking quarterbacks early but it is impossible to ignore the value of a Culpepper at the end of round two. Round 3: WR Derrick Mason, 27th overall - I would have no problem going running back with this pick but what a great beginning to a draft to have a top-five player at each position. Mason will team with McAllister and Culpepper to give this owner an awesome cornerstone to a great season. Round 4: RB Warrick Dunn, 46th overall - With only one running back taken in the first three rounds, it is an easy choice to take the best running back available with this pick. Selecting Dunn gives the owner two viable running backs to start each week. Round 5: WR Joe Horn, 51st overall - It is nice to add a player with the talent of Horn with the 51st pick in the draft. He and Mason are a great start at the receiver position. Round 6: RB T.J. Duckett, 70th overall - With a quarterback and two each at the running back and receiver positions, it becomes a matter of the best value pick here. It would likely come down to running back or receiver unless a top-tier tight end fell to you here and Duckett is a fine addition as a potential third starter with the FLEX option. Roster After Six Rounds
Thoughts on roster so far Quarterback strength with the top guy on the cheat sheet, running back strength with three starting running backs and a solid receiver duo in place. Everything looks good for owner #3. Draft Strategy going forward The first several slots have almost identical strategies. This owner can afford to simply pick the best available player when his turn comes up because he has solid talent at the three main positions already. He should try to add a backup quarterback, a fourth running back, another two receivers and a tight end with the next five selections. Drafting from the # 4 slot General Thoughts Once again, you'll notice that this owner finished up the sixth round with three running backs on roster. The first pick is easy because you get a potential top running back with the first pick. Round two can see the owner go in any one of three directions. In this scenario, the best pick was a running back but don't be afraid to go with a receiver or quarterback with this pick. The important thing to remember is that your draft strategy must change along with the position selected. If you only have one running back after round three, it is important to target the position over the next few rounds. Because of the scarcity of running backs in fantasy football, an owner who ignores the position in the early rounds will be forced to reach for 'potential' and 'projects' throughout the rest of the draft. Slot 4 Round 1: RB Ahman Green, 4th overall - As with McAllister at # 3, it is unfair that an owner drafting fourth can end up with a stud like Green. He put up monster numbers in 2003 and could be even better this year with the same offensive line returning to decimate defenses once again. Round 2: WR Hines Ward, 21st overall - There were a number of different ways to go here. I could see this owner just as easily taking a Culpepper here if he chooses to or selecting a running back if a top one falls here. However nothing wrong with taking a stud receiver like Ward here in round two. He will put up big numbers and is very consistent week to week. He and Green are one heck of a beginning to a fantasy roster. Round 3: RB Duce Staley, 28th overall - This is definitely a value round. Simply take the best player on the board. Manning or Culpepper could be your selection if they drop to this spot or even a second receiver if you are feeling brave. However getting your 2nd running back here is always a solid move and gives the team options going forward. Round 4: TE Tony Gonzalez, 45th overall - This is a tough pick. Gonzalez could be money but I rarely take a tight end myself this early in a draft. If I were to do it though, Gonzalez is the player I would want. What this selection does if gives the owner strength in three of the four critical areas of his roster (excluding K and DEF) and a clear-cut advantage at the tight end position could be huge. The problem becomes how do you make up for missing talent at RB/WR by going TE with this pick. I do so by ignoring the QB position until round seven and looking for gold at that time. Round 5: WR Rod Smith, 52nd overall - The owner here has to take a running back or receiver and the question becomes which position offers the best value here. After checking out the draft board, Smith makes the most sense with this pick, teaming up with Mason for a great one-two punch. Round 6: RB Willis McGahee, 69th overall - Swing for the fences baby! All or nothing with this pick. If McGahee can regain his form from college, this pick could turn a good fantasy team into a great team and a great team into a championship one. I like to avoid risks as much as possible in the first couple of rounds but once you get to this point in the draft, roll up your sleeves, take a deep breath and roll the dice on players like this. Roster After Six Rounds
Thoughts on roster so far I always feel like a run behind the eight ball a bit when I take a tight end in the first four rounds, which is why I rarely do it. However there comes a point when it makes no sense to avoid picking up a player like Gonzalez and then you go ahead and take him. If I do take a tight end, my strategy is usually to avoid the quarterback position until round seven in order to secure talent at the running back and receiver slots. In this case I believe it worked out pretty well. Three good running backs and a couple of potential studs at receiver in addition to Gonzalez could drive this owner to greatness and especially so if he lucks into a good quarterback in round seven. Draft Strategy going forward Round seven must be a quarterback for this owner. After that, he can look to the best value at each position. My likely strategy would be QB / QB / WR / RB-WR / DEF / RB-WR in the next six rounds. If a quarterback such as Brett Favre or Jeff Garcia gets back to him in round seven, he could consider this an awesome draft. Drafting from the # 5 slot General Thoughts Drafting from the 2nd to 7th slots this year is an excellent place to build a solid roster. Talent such as Clinton Portis will fall to an owner with this pick and they'll get a strong player coming back in round two. Slot 5 Round 1: RB Edgerrin James, 5th overall - Once again, it is amazing the value that is dropping to owners in the 2nd to 7th slots. Simply take the best running back remaining on your list. James could easily slip into the top three in 2004. Round 2: RB Tiki Barber, 20th overall - This owner has a lot of choices. He can go quarterback with Culpepper, receiver with Ward or running back. In this case, I chose to go running back knowing that Barber can be golden in leagues that reward one point per reception. Round 3: QB Michael Vick, 29th overall - Vick has the talent and athletic ability to dominate fantasy football leagues this season. Is he a risk? Yes, he is but one worth taking this season in a fantasy draft. If you would rather wait on a quarterback, going running back here would also work very well. Round 4: WR Darrell Jackson, 44th overall - A pretty tough decision here with TE Gonzalez still available in addition to good receiver talent. However this squad is also in need of its first starting receiver and that takes priority here. Jackson should be a strong option once again in 2004. Round 5: WR Jerry Porter, 53rd overall - This pick boils down to receiver or running back. Simply take the best player at one of those positions on your list. Round 6: RB Correll Buckhalter, 68th overall - Since the pick was receiver in round five, this choice is easy in round six. This owner needs a third running back so he should take the best one remaining here. Buckhalter will have an opportunity to do much better than his draft slot. Roster After Six Rounds
Thoughts on roster so far This roster has no holes through six rounds. Three running backs, two receivers and a top-five quarterback is a great beginning to any squad. Draft Strategy going forward This owner is in great shape to simply pick the best player on his draft board for the next several rounds. In fact, I would likely target a top defense as early as round eight thanks to the start of this unit. By round twelve, this roster should add a second quarterback, a fourth running back, a third and fourth receiver, a tight end and a defense. A good idea would be to target the handcuff for both Barber and James since they are known commodities (Ron Dayne and Dominic Rhodes). You can likely get both players later than round ten (although Dayne is shooting up the charts at this time - I still can't believe I just typed that!) Drafting from the # 6 slot General Thoughts With the sixth pick, it almost always will be RB/RB in the first two rounds. Unless a player such as Randy Moss, Marvin Harrison or Torry Holt happens to fall to your round two pick, the best thing to do is to select two running backs. It is too early in the second round to take a quarterback and no other receiver is worthy of the mid round-two pick. Again, these mid slots in drafts this year are golden. If you can choose your draft slots this year, target being in the five to seven range. Slot 6 Round 1: RB Shaun Alexander, 6th overall - It is nice to sit back and wait for a running back with Alexander's talents with the 6th pick. No brainer here. Round 2: RB Travis Henry, 19th overall - Henry is awesome value with the 19th pick in the draft. Round 3: RB Thomas Jones, 30th overall - With the top quarterbacks and receivers off of the board, why not add a third running back here and have the strongest running back corps in the league. Jones has looked strong with the Bears all preseason and he could end up a true value pickup in round three. Round 4: WR Jimmy Smith, 43rd overall - Have to look at receiver here after not picking one in the first three rounds. Simply take the best one on your list. Smith may be getting old but he is in great shape and will surprise with a strong season in 2004. Round 5: QB Aaron Brooks, 54th overall - Taking a quarterback here is a great move and Brooks is a wonderful addition to this squad. You could look receiver here or even tight end but I love getting a quarterback such as Brooks here in round five. Round 6: WR Amani Toomer, 67th overall - Very easy choice here. Take the best receiver on your list. Roster After Six Rounds
Thoughts on roster so far This roster is solid throughout. I like the starting duo at RB, which could be the best in the league, and the receiver duo of Smith/Toomer is strong despite the age of Smith and the unknown quarterback situation in New York. Draft Strategy going forward This team is set and can look at value picks in each of the next several rounds. Simply take the best player on the board. Drafting from the # 7 slot General Thoughts The last of the 'stud' backs makes this an easy choice. With the potential legal woes of Jamal Lewis and the past health issues of Fred Taylor, there is a significant gap between Clinton Portis and the rest of the running backs. Take running back and don't look back. Slot 7 Round 1: RB Clinton Portis, 7th overall - The last of the 'big' running backs is Clinton Portis and what a luxury to be the owner sitting at #7 waiting for the draft to come to him. Portis could easily slip into the top-three and is an easy pick here. Round 2: RB Domanick Davis, 18th overall - The plus of drafting 7th instead of 1st through 6th is you get first crack at the talent coming back in round two. Landing a player with the potential of Davis and teaming him up with Portis is awesome. If a top three receiver is available here, that could certainly be your pick and if you are huge on Terrell Owens, Hines Ward or Chad Johnson, take him here, as he won't make it back to you in round three. Round 3: RB Marshall Faulk, 31st overall - Interesting choice here. With the top quarterbacks and running backs off of the board, going after a third running back to start as the flex is a great strategy. The middle of the draft is a great place to go after three running backs in the first three rounds. It works really well. If Faulk has another good year in him, this squad is off to the races. Round 4: WR Andre Johnson, 42nd overall - This squad didn't have a receiver yet so simply take the best one remaining. Round 5: QB Trent Green, 55th overall - Nothing wrong with adding a player like Green in the fifth round of your draft. He makes any fantasy roster that much stronger. Round 6: WR Isaac Bruce, 66th overall - With three running backs and a strong quarterback already on board, the easy choice here was the top receiver on the board. Now if one of the top tight ends is still available, it could make sense to go that route as well. Roster After Six Rounds
Thoughts on roster so far This roster has an outstanding trio at running back, very possibly the best in the league. Add to that, two good receivers with great potential and a consistent fantasy producer at quarterback and this squad looks strong. Draft Strategy going forward Value, value, and yes, value going forward for this squad. Simply take the best player remaining. Drafting from the # 8 slot General Thoughts This is where round one begins to get challenging. The 'top' running backs are off of the board but players like Fred Taylor, Jamal Lewis and Kevan Barlow are still available. The direction this squad takes is entirely up to the owner. If taking a receiver in round one terrifies you, go ahead and take one of the running backs mentioned earlier. However landing a top-tier receiver in a league with the option to FLEX a fourth receiver in addition to the one point per reception rule makes it very attractive to get a top receiver in this part of the draft. Don't be afraid to roll the dice here. Slot 8 Round 1: WR Randy Moss, 8th overall - Moss=Production. I know some owners are terrified of looking away from running back in round one but it makes sense to take a top receiver in this scoring system. Round 2: RB Curtis Martin, 17th overall - A very brave move could be to go receiver here as well maximizing points if Holt is available but since he isn't, take the best running back remaining on your list. If you did decide to go WR/WR in the first two rounds, it would be absolutely critical that you still get three running backs by the end of round six before they completely dry out. Personally I think the best play is WR/RB instead. Round 3: RB Stephen Davis, 32nd overall - Getting Davis as the 2nd starter was a major victory for this owner after ignoring the position in round one. However not all drafts will still have running backs like Davis sitting there to be plucked so this owner has to be ready to be very flexible with his draft. Remember that there is the possibility of starting four receivers in this league so don't back away from having four receivers on your roster in the first six picks. If every owner goes running back between your round two and round three picks (15 slots), don't hesitate to scoop up a Terrell Owens/ Hines Ward and look for running back value later. When you are in the latter picks of the draft, it is important to be flexible. Round 4: WR Chris Chambers, 41st overall - So many different ways the fantasy owner can go here. So he should simply take the best player available. Round 5: QB Marc Bulger, 56th overall - Going quarterback here is a wise move and Bulger has top-five capability. Round 6: WR Plaxico Burress, 65th overall -Either go running back or receiver with this pick. In this case the value appears to be at receiver but in your draft take the best option available at either position. A case could be made for going Eddie George, Correll Buckhalter, etc. but in reality, Burress has a great chance to jump way up the receiver rankings this season while both of the running backs mentioned aren't likely to do so. Roster After Six Rounds
Thoughts on roster so far While there is some risk at running back, the receiver and quarterback position are in great shape. If you aren't comfortable with only two running backs to this point, one of the ways you could counter it would be to not select a quarterback in the first six rounds and instead stockpile talent at only running back and receiver through those picks. That may put you behind the eight ball at quarterback but you also could get lucky and have a player such as Garcia fall to your pick there. It is up to you how you want to play this but I like having strength in all three main positions as much as possible. Draft Strategy going forward This owner should target landing two running backs with the next few picks unless exceptional value presents itself at receiver. Ignore the quarterback and tight end positions over the next few rounds and build depth at running back and receiver. The receiver position could be incredibly strong going forward. Drafting from the # 9 slot General Thoughts Same as the owner drafting eighth overall, there are different paths an owner can take here. If you absolutely do not wish to go receiver in round one, go ahead and take the next best running back on your list. The problem with going RB here is you are a bit behind the eight ball compared to the owners who drafting in the first several picks and it becomes difficult to make it up, especially if they go top receiver / top quarterback in rounds two and three. Going receiver here could actually help your team to succeed with good drafting going forward. Slot 9 Round 1: WR Marvin Harrison, 9th overall - A receiver capable of catching 140+ passes cannot be ignored in round one. He could carry your squad some weeks. Round 2: RB Michael Bennett, 16th overall - I would actually consider going receiver here if Torry Holt dropped as it would give this owner two potential 100+ reception guys on his squad at one time. However Holt isn't available and Bennett is the top running back left on the list so he becomes the choice here. As I wrote above from the eighth slot, if you do roll the dice to take two of the top three receivers, you must get three running backs by the end of round six. Round 3: RB Kevin Jones 33rd overall - With the ebb and flow of this draft, going running back here is an easy choice. If you are in a running back heavy draft though and there are no players like Jones available here, buck the trend and look to a top receiver instead. Jones could be the rookie runner that slips into the top fifteen this season. Round 4: WR Laveranues Coles, 40th overall - Has developed into a top tier receiver and he makes a fabulous combination with Harrison. Round 5 QB Steve McNair, 57th overall - It is another easy choice to go quarterback here. Nobody else really stands out as a choice here so simply take the best quarterback available and McNair is a top fantasy producer so it is a very easy choice. Round 6: RB Charlie Garner, 64th overall - If Garner happened to emerge here in one of my 'real' drafts, I would be doing cartwheels around the room for the next fifteen minutes. I have my doubts he would slip to that point but the choice here is simply to take the best player available at either running back or receiver. If no running backs worth taking here are available continue to stockpile talent at receiver as that is how the owners stuck at 8th and 9th overall and compete with the earlier owners. Roster After Six Rounds
Thoughts on roster so far This squad is in good shape at quarterback, in wonderful shape at receiver and the running back situation is stronger than an owner has the right to expect when not picking a back in round one. This owner is in great shape to win it all in 2004. Draft Strategy going forward This owner is in great shape to add 'value' going forward. I would likely be targeting receivers in the next two rounds unless exceptional value falls to me at running back or tight end. I would wait until round nine or ten to add my next quarterback and would take backup Titans QB Billy Volek in round seventeen of the draft to secure the fantasy points at quarterback. Drafting from the # 10 slot General Thoughts The latter slots this year pose considerable problems compared to the top half of the list. These owners need to let the draft come to them and be flexible enough to change their strategy on the fly. If running backs were taken in the first nine picks, this owner would be very wise to ignore the running back position and go receiver in round one and maybe even round two if a top-three came back to him there. Don't feel pressured into going running back automatically in round one, especially in leagues that reward an extra point per reception and the option to start an extra receiver. In leagues such as this, running backs such as Moe Williams become excellent value picks later in the draft. Slot 10 Round 1: RB Jamal Lewis, 10th overall - I would strongly consider Holt here as I consider the running backs remaining to all have some risk associated with being a first round draft pick. However, even though Lewis is having legal difficulties, it is simply too tough to avoid him in the latter stages of round one. He should be able to play this season but if his legal woes do cause him to miss time, it is important for this fantasy owner to secure the backup running backs for the Ravens late in his draft such as Musa Smith. Round 2: WR Torry Holt, 15th overall - If Holt is available here, it is a no-brainer in my opinion. Take him and don't look back. Round 3: RB Quentin Griffin, 34th overall - Griffin is rising higher than the mercury in a thermometer on the field at Sun Devil stadium in Arizona. Griffin is the top running back available here and with all of the top receivers off the board, the easy pick for this owner. Round 4: WR Santana Moss, 39th overall - Take the best player on your list here. In this case it is WR Santana Moss with no running backs really worthy of a selection and the top quarterbacks already off of the board. Round 5: RB Tyrone Wheatley, 58th overall - Wheatley looks like a workhorse this season and he is a good choice here. This owner could just as easily go receiver with this pick and add a player like Peerless Price or Charles Rogers. Round 6: TE Jeremy Shockey, 63rd overall - This pick is interesting. The best quarterbacks are off of the board and this owner has a big choice to make. He can reach on a quarterback here, he can stockpile more talent at running back or receiver or he can take TE Jeremy Shockey. It is too difficult to ignore Shockey here and he is a pretty easy choice to make. Roster After Six Rounds
Thoughts on roster so far This roster is set at running back and in great shape at both receiver and tight end. Obviously the big risk here is at quarterback and he'll have to wait 18 picks to select his first quarterback. However the roster is strong enough at the other positions that he's put himself in great shape. Draft Strategy going forward This owner has to look at quarterback in round seven. After that he should ignore the tight end position until late in the draft and focus on stockpiling talent at receiver and running back. By the end of round nine, this owner should have 2 QBs, 3-4 RBs, 3-4 WRs, and 1 TE on his roster. Drafting from the # 11 slot General Thoughts You can call this slot 'the Reaction Position' because that is what you'll be doing. What you do here will always depend on what the owners do in front of you. If the first ten picks were all running backs, definitely go WR to find value. Other than that it is up to you what happens. In this case it is easy thanks to slots 7-9 looking at WR. Go running back and don't look back. Slot 11 Round 1: RB Kevan Barlow, 11th overall - This owner has two real choices with this pick. He can take the best running back remaining on his list or scoop up a top-three receiver in Holt. Since I have already outlined taking a receiver in round one with the 8th and 9th owners, I will take Barlow here instead. Let your preference decide what you do here but of course, running back is the safest play. Round 2: RB Rudi Johnson, 14th overall - Choice here is again simple, top running back remaining or a top-three receiver. Since Barlow is not a known factor at running back as a first round pick, it is wise to land a strong second back in Johnson. Round 3: WR Eric Moulds, 35th overall - Patience and flexibility are the keys to drafting late. This owner can go three different directions here (QB with McNabb, RB with Brown and WR with Moulds). Any of the three could be beneficial but I went with Moulds. Round 4: RB Chris Brown, 38th overall - Brown happened to fall to round four so he became the easy choice. If McNabb or Steve Smith fell to this spot, I would have no problem taking either of them as well. Round 5: WR Peerless Price 59th overall - The play here should be receiver with only one on board. Price is the best available. Round 6: QB Tom Brady, 62nd overall - Brady is a quarterback capable of big things. He is worth a selection for sure in round six. It would be very risky for this owner to wait on selecting a quarterback until the end of round seven with a long wait in between this pick and his next. It is unknown to this owner whether a few quarterback or twelve quarterbacks will go off the board between now and his next pick. He is better off taking a potential top-eight fantasy quarterback here. Roster After Six Rounds
Thoughts on roster so far Good running back strength leads the way for this squad. This squad could just as easily started off RB/WR/WR/WR/RB/QB or even WR/WR/RB/RB/RB/QB depending on what the owners did in front of them. FLEXIBILITY is definitely the key with the late round picks. Draft Strategy going forward I would target running back and receiver for the next two rounds and by the end of round 10, would have 2 QBs, 4 RBs, and 4 WRs. Drafting from the # 12 slot General Thoughts Without a doubt, the one slot that requires the best use of strategic planning is the final slot in a draft. It can be both a huge liability and a huge positive depending on how the owner uses his selections. The biggest problem with this slot is the long wait between picks. It is similar to the first slot in that but the first owner has the luxury of taking the best running back on board in addition to three of the top twenty-five players. There are a number of ways this owner can go.
In this scenario though, this owner will do the standard thing of picking two running backs. Slot 12 Round 1/2: RB Fred Taylor 12th overall / RB Corey Dillon, 13th overall - Easy choice at 12th overall as Taylor belongs in the first round. The second choice comes down to Dillon at running back or Holt at receiver. I have no problem with either but went with Dillon in this study. Round 3/4: QB Donovan McNabb, 36th overall / WR Steve Smith, 37th overall - With two running backs on board and the run of running backs in round three, it is smart to look elsewhere here and to pick up a top quarterback and good receiver..
Roster After Six Rounds
Thoughts on roster so far This has the makings of a great squad. An excellent quarterback in McNabb, two good running backs in Taylor and Dillon solid receivers and a top tight end lead the way to a potential playoff squad. I think going back to do this again, I would likely sub in Garner for Heap as I think I like this squad better with three running backs and no tight end. Draft Strategy going forward This squad needs to pickup a couple of running backs in the next few rounds but really, this owner is in a position of scooping up value as it falls to him from this point on. Remember that the end of the draft requires a lot of flexibility from the owner in order to have the best draft possible. Taking an early tight end means ignoring the position from this point on until quite late in the draft. You will find good mid-draft value at receiver and defense while other owners are taking tight ends. Important Draft Strategies
Final Conclusions While there is some variance between the different draft slots, an owner can draft a competitive team at any of them if he is willing to adjust his strategy as the draft goes on. If an owner is patience, prepared and willing to follow his own path the draft will open up to him and he will find himself with a competitive team at the end of the day. Don't be afraid to buck the trend but allow your strategy to change with your choices. If you take a quarterback or receiver in the first two rounds, the focus for your team should switch to running back. Never take more than one quarterback until at least round seven at the very least. If you do take one of the top three tight ends (Shockey, Gonzalez and Heap) in the first few rounds, ignore the tight end position until near the end of the draft and avoid taking a quarterback until round seven unless exceptional value exists. There is absolutely no reason to take a backup tight end until at least round 14 unless you can start more than one. There are no guarantees in fantasy drafts due to injuries and unforeseen occurrences. However having a solid strategy in place that can be flexible can help an owner drafting from any slot be successful in his/her league. Good Luck and Happy Drafting! |
|
Site Map | Contact
Us | Login
/ Signup
©Copyright Footballguys.com 2003, All rights reserved. |