Spotlight - QB Aaron Brooks, New Orleans Saints
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Posted 9/2 by Jason Wood and David Yudkin, Exclusive to Footballguys.com
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Jason Wood's Thoughts
I'm much less a fan of Aaron Brooks, NFL QB, than I am Aaron Brooks, fantasy
QB. Fortunately for we fantasy owners, the things that bother me about Brook's
play on in the real world don't translate negatively into the typical fantasy
scoring system.
- His attitude and leadership skills (or lack thereof) - Anyone that's
watched Brooks play knows that he's never met a bad play that didn't please
him. Confused? What I mean is that Aaron Brooks could throw a wobbly duck
that's intercepted and returned for an 80 touchdown and when the camera pans
to him, he'll be smiling ear to ear. If my team's quarterback did that (let
alone EVERY game) it would incense me; as the leader of the team he should
be irate at himself when he makes those kind of mistakes. Lest you think I'm
being nitpicky, consider that Saints management sent Brooks to a leadership
training seminar last year in an effort to turn him into a more effective
leader; but I'm not sure we saw any change as witnessed by the team's 8-8
finish last year.
- His propensity to turn the ball over - You have to give credit where
credit is due and Brooks has done a masterful job of reducing his interception
totals. In 2001 he threw 22 interceptions, which fell to 15 in 2002 and just
8 last year. But, he hasn't cured his tendency to fumble. For the third straight
season he fumbled at least 11 times, only last year the results were far more
damaging as he LOST 11 of 14 fumbles; simply inexcusable.
But as I said, most leagues don't penalize for QB fumbles nor do they take
points off for having poor leadership skills. As much as I wouldn't want Brooks
to quarterback my real life NFL team; I would happily have him as my fantasy
team's quarterback for the following reasons:
- He's productive - Brooks has thrown for at least 3,500 yards and
24 touchdowns in his three seasons as a full time starter. Add in respectable
rushing totals and Brooks is a bona fide fantasy star; he's finished 8th,
5th and 3rd in the last three seasons.
- He's improving - As mentioned previously, his INT rate has gone down
markedly in the last three years, and last season his completion percentage
jumped to 59%.
- He's undervalued - Three straight years as a top 8 fantasy QB, coming
off a top 3 finish and yet he's the 10th QB off the board according to Antsports.
Makes little sense considering Brooks is young, hasn't missed a game in three
seasons as the full time starter, and returns the same cast of characters
that allowed him to excel in 2003.
It should also be noted that the Saints have one of the better offensive lines
in the NFC, and the presence of RB Deuce McAllister not only provides Brooks
with a safety valve out of the backfield but also keeps defenses honest; McAllister
frequently commands an extra defender in the box; freeing up Brooks and his
receivers to exploit man-to-man coverage.
Positives
- Steadily improved as a passer over the last three years, and seen his fantasy
ranking improve in lockstep
- WR Donté Stallworth appears ready for a breakout year, and WR Joe
Horn, TE Boo Williams and RB Deuce McAllister are all among the best receivers
at their respective positions
- The Saints offensive line provides Brooks with ample protection
Negatives
- Brooks isn't a natural leader, and it's a problem that could prove damaging
to his long term prospects
- Joe Horn showed signs of aging last season, if Stallworth doesn't take a
step forward, the Saints passing game could suffer a setback
- Brooks' rushing totals have declined coincident with his improving passing
numbers
Final Thoughts
Aaron Brooks is an OK NFL QB, but he's a fantastic fantasy QB. With three consecutive
top 8 finishes, coming off a 3rd place finish, there's no justification for
his current average draft position of 10th. Use other's disrespect for Brooks
to your advantage; he would be an ideal addition to your team as a QB1 in the
5th or 6th round. Draft accordingly.
David Yudkin's Thoughts:
Aaron Brooks is almost the anti-Tom Brady. Brooks puts up decent stats on a
good offensive team that never seems to make the playoffs. Brady gets a lot
of credit in New England for leading the Patriots to the Promised Land and coming
through late in the season. Brooks, on the other hand, catches a lot of heat
for the team choking at the end of the year.
The funny thing about Brooks is that his numbers have decreased some almost
every year, yet his ranking has improved each year. That's mostly due the fact
that he has dramatically reduced his interceptions. His passing yardage dipped
from 3,832 to 3,546 yards. His TD dropped slightly from 27 to 24 TD. His rushing
totals slipped from 358 to 175 yards. Not major drop-offs, but not numbers headed
in the right direction.
Brooks did make great strides in not forcing or turning over the ball. His
interceptions have dropped substantially-from a high of 22 to last year's career
best 8 interceptions.
In recent years, the Saints have not played very well at the end of the year.
In 2001, they finished the year on a 4 game losing streak, getting outscored
160-52 in those games. In 2002, they lost their last 3 games and again missed
the playoffs. Last year, the Saints suffered 2 late season losses against Tampa
Bay and Jacksonville that could have possibly gotten them into the playoffs.
Fans, the media, and team owners alike have been looking for a scapegoat the
past couple of years, and many have pointed their fingers at Brooks. Why these
people single out Brooks for a lynching is curious, as he was not the one that
gave up an average of 40 points per game in December one year.
The talk last season was that Brooks was not the answer. The talk THIS year
in training camp is that Brooks might not be the answer, and there have been
stories floating about that Todd Bouman could challenge for the #1 QB job in
New Orleans. Brooks should hold on to the job, and he has a very good supporting
cast around him.
The Saints return Joe Horn, Donté Stallworth, Boo Williams, Ernie Conwell,
and Deuce McAllister this year and added rookie wideout Devery Henderson as
another receiving threat. The Saints ranked in or around the Top 10 in most
passing categories the past three seasons, but their total scoring dropped from
432 points to 340 points last season. That number is somewhat perplexing given
that their other offensive numbers stayed almost the same.
From a fantasy perspective, Brooks has been a bit maddening. He's always mixed
a few monster games in to get his owners thinking he has taken the next step
to becoming a true fantasy god-a 400 yard passing game here, a 5 TD game there,
16 TD over an 8 game stretch to start the season, etc. But then he levels out
and returns to being merely "good." That has frustrated both fantasy
players and his NFL coaches alike.
Positives
- One of the few QB that has improved his fantasy ranking each season in
the league (QB 28, 8, 5, 3)
- Dramatically reduced his interceptions over the past few seasons (22 to
15 to 8)
- Has an offense fully stocked with weapons with multiple WR and TE options
and Deuce out of the backfield
Negatives
- Not getting shown a lot of love from management, the coaching staff, and
the media with rumors swirling in camp that he could lose his starting job
- Has not increased his per game or per season stats. Averaged 259 passing
yards and almost 2 TD per game as a rookie, declined each season, and posted
221 passing yards and 1.5 TD per game last year
- Needs to rally the troops to play better late in the year and make a bona
fide and successful playoff run
Final Thoughts
Brooks is going to have to improve his numbers if he wants to keep his streak
of successive years of improving his year end rankings alive. It's unlikely
he will produce another 3:1 TD to INT ratio this year, so his peripheral stats
will need to go up to accommodate for that. Depending upon your league, Brooks
could rank very highly (if the league penalizes interceptions heavily) or could
be a lot closer to the pack (if not much, if anything, is deducted for interceptions).
IF, and this is a big IF, the Saints can do a better job getting back into
the end zone this year, Brooks could continue to eke his way up the QB rankings.
The offense should again be solid, and barring injury to himself and key receivers,
Brooks should have another strong season.
Quotations from the Message Board Thread
To view the entire Player Spotlight thread (there's a ton of fantastic commentary
in there), click here.
Doug B:
"Few QBs are in as stats-friendly a position as Aaron Brooks in 2004.
He's got talent (some of it unrealized) surrounding him at WR, RB, and TE. The
Saints' offensive line is quite solid (esp. at run blocking), if yet unsung.
Plus the Saints have got a growing-pains defense full of youngsters that's set
for inconsistent boom-or-bust performances -- there will be games in which Brooks
will be asked to air it out to keep the team competitive."
Iwannabeacowboybaby!:
"He's only 28 years old and should be in for another solid fantasy season.
In most drafts I've seen he's going anywhere from 7-9 at QB and where he's finished
the past 3 seasons you get a little bit of value for him when you compare where
players like Mike Vick and Donovan McNabb have finished in recent years and
both being drafted ahead of Brooks."
zoonation:
"I will say that few QBs have such a nice array of weapons at their
disposal. Last year, both Horn and Stallworth were hurt, or playing hurt, for
much of the season. He still put up huge numbers. This year will be no different
IMO."
Aaron Brooks Projections
Source |
PassYds
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TDs
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INTs
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RushYds
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TDs
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FntPts
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Jason Wood |
3650
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25
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14
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195
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2
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300
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David Yudkin |
3600
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25
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12
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200
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2
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300
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Message Board Consensus |
3655
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27
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13
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216
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2
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311
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