Jason Wood's Thoughts

As an Eagles season ticket holder, I'm an A.J. Feeley fan. The unheralded QB out of Oregon didn't register a blip on the NFL radar screen until Eagles backup Koy Detmer was injured two years ago (with McNabb already hurt) and Feeley became the Eagles starter. Just when most fans (me included) were resigned to a ruined season, Feeley went 4-1 in the final five games of the season; leading the Birds to a 12-4 season and bridging the gap to McNabb's playoff return.

Feeley's notoriety made him a fan favorite in Philly last year, and even opened doors for him off the field (i.e., dating a soccer hottie) yet, on the field; he was once again the QB3 behind Koy Detmer.

As grateful as Eagles fans are for Feeley's heroics in 2002, the fact remained he was our 3rd stringer. And that's why Andy Reid didn't hesitate to let him go to the Dolphins for a 2nd round pick this offseason.

2nd round picks, if you choose correctly, should be impact starters for your football team. One team, the Dolphins, felt Feeley was worth the 2nd rounder…while the Eagles, certain that Feeley wouldn't be an impact player for them, were more than happy to make the swap. So which team made the 'right' choice?

Consider

1. Andy Reid / Joe Banner vs. Dave Wannstedt / Rick Spielman - Andy Reid and cap guru Joe Banner considered Feeley expendable, while Wannstedt and Spielman claim that Feeley was the number one QB option on their offseason list after culling through game film on a handful of prospects. Which personnel evaluators would you rather side with? Last time I checked, Reid was the guy who demanded the Eagles take Donovan McNabb, he was the guy who coached Brett Favre, and he was the coach who assembled and coached a team to 3 straight championship games. Yet, in his estimation, Feeley wasn't good enough to overtake Koy Detmer on the depth chart. Meanwhile, Dave Wannstedt has seen his team collapse year in, year out, and has brought in a revolving door of QBs (Fiedler, Lucas, Griese) to answer the call, all but Fiedler being an outright mistake.



2. Fiedler vs. Detmer - Koy Detmer is a 31-year-old, 195-pound backup QB with limited arm strength, yet A.J. Feeley couldn't overtake him on the Eagles depth chart despite being bigger (6'3", 225 lbs.), younger (27 years old) and more affordable. Now, before Dolphin fans say, "Detmer was only QB2 because he was PK David Akers' holder" let me remind you that it was Detmer, not Feeley, who was brought in to play when McNabb went down in last year's NFC Championship game. If Andy Reid, who knows QB talent when he sees it, doesn't think Feeley is better than Detmer, why should we assume he's better than Fiedler? A guy who has been very productive for stretches as the Dolphins starter.

The bottom line is, I don't believe A.J. Feeley is overtly talented and is no more qualified to lead an NFL franchise than a handful of other backups. Yet, his lottery ticket was punched because the Dolphins brain trust became infatuated with him.

Yet, Jay Fiedler hasn't been supplanted. Perhaps Feeley will beat Fiedler out in training camp, but perhaps not. Certainly Fiedler has the edge in terms of understanding the system. Certainly Fiedler's mobility is a plus for a team that has questions on the offensive line. Remember that Fiedler has fended off the likes of Brian Griese and Ray Lucas in previous seasons; can we say that Feeley is demonstrably better than either of those quarterbacks?

Now, let's say for argument sake A.J. Feeley actually does start all 16 games for the Dolphins; I still contend he's not likely to help your fantasy team all that much.

1. Ultra Conservative Offense - As long as Dave Wannstedt coaches the Dolphins, the team is not going to open up the passing game. Take a look at the Dolphins passing numbers during his tenure:
   • 2003 -- 3,001 yards passing (26th in the league), 17 touchdowns (24th in the league)
   
   
   
   • 2002 -- 3,069 yards passing (27th), 18 touchdowns (27th)
   
   
   
   • 2001 -- 3,335 yards passing (20th), 20 touchdowns (13th)
   
   
   
   • 2000 -- 2,720 yards passing (30th), 15 touchdowns (24th)
   
   
   
   • AVG -- 3,031 yards passing, 17.5 touchdowns
   
   
   
   Under Wannstedt, the Dolphins have defined 'run happy offense'. The team's best showing was 29th in passing attempts (29th!).



2. New "Offensive" Coordinator - This offseason saw the Dolphins replace their offensive coordinator not once, but twice. Joel Collier, the team's running backs coach was elevated to replace Norv Turner. But less than two months into his role, he was demoted for "health reasons" and Chris Foerster was given the job. This is disconcerting for two reasons. One, Foerster has no experience as a coordinator and two; he doesn't know the Dolphins personnel well having just joined the staff this offseason. Think about something, if Norv Turner, as respected an offensive mind as there is in the NFL, couldn't convince Dave Wannstedt to open up the offense, how is Foerster going to?



3. Offensive Line Questions - The Dolphins offensive line was disappointing last year and as a result a wholesale makeover is in order. There will be four new starters on the line, one of which will replace departed tackle Todd Wade, the team's best lineman last year. Can Seth McKinney, John St. Clair, Jeno James, Vernon Carey and Wade Smith form an effective unit? At best, it will take time for this unit to jell, at worst the team could be faced with another season of sub par line play.



4. Losses of Key Personnel - What little success the Dolphins enjoyed throwing the ball the last few years was thanks to the presence of Ricky Williams. Williams commanded 8 and sometimes 9 men in the box, freeing up Chris Chambers and company in single coverage. With Williams' retiring, defenses won't have to bring a safety into the box; not a good sign for Fiedler and/or Feeley. Additionally, the team lost David Boston for the season with a torn patella tendon; somehow I don't see newly acquired Marty Booker having quite the same impact alongside Chambers.

Positives

• The Dolphins spent a 2nd round draft pick on Feeley and the entire management regime is in a must win year; he'll get an opportunity



• The Dolphins have some weapons at receiver (even without Boston) in Chris Chambers and Randy McMichael



• The loss of Ricky Williams means the team will have to throw more; regardless of Wannstedt's predilection
  

Negatives

• Jay Fiedler, the incumbent, wasn't released as anticipated indicating he's got a shot at winning the starting job in camp



• Feeley was a 3rd stringer behind Koy Detmer in Philadelphia; not exactly an endorsement of his skills



• Feeley isn't mobile, and the Dolphins line has question marks which may lead to pressure in the pocket

Final Thoughts

A.J. Feeley has the opportunity to emerge as the Dolphins starting quarterback this season. Yet, through the first few weeks of training camp, it's clear that any Jay Fiedler has at least a 50/50 shot at retaining his job. I believe Feeley is far closer to "career backup" than "the next Jake Delhomme" and, as such, wouldn't risk making him my QB2 in redrafts this year. Additionally, even if Feeley DOES play all 16 games, what's the upside? Yes, they have some interesting offensive weapons in Chambers and McMichael but more importantly they still have Dave Wannstedt as head coach and a completely inexperienced offensive coordinator. If anyone thinks Chris Foerster has the cache to convince Wanny to open up the passing game when Norv Turner never could, we'll have to respectfully agree to disagree. Don't consider Feeley as anything more than your QB3; and that's probably a wasted pick.

David Yudkin's Thoughts:

Question: Which team posted a 36-17 record (a .679 winning percentage-4th best in the league) with their starting QB over the past 4 years?

Answer: The Miami Dolphins

Question: Which team opted to trade a second round draft pick for a QB that has started only 5 games in his 3 year career and did not play a single down in 2003?

Answer: The Miami Dolphins

If this seems somewhat illogical, well, it probably is. The Dolphins have averaged 10.25 wins per year since Jay Fiedler took over at QB. Yet, upper management deemed it necessary to make a play to get A.J. Feeley, Donovan McNabb's backup in Philadelphia.

Apparently, the Phins saw enough in Feeley's 5 starts (with 4 victories) from two years ago that they HAD to have him. But why invest a second round draft pick to get him? Given the wealth of QB talent that was or would be available in the offseason, and with hardly any other teams even REMOTELY interested in Feeley, why offer up a second round draft pick?

In his 5 starts, Feeley's numbers were 83 completions in 151 attempts, 994 passing yards, 5 TD, and 5 interceptions and 10 rushes for 9 rushing yards. That comes out to a 16-game projection of 266 completions in 483 attempts, 3181 passing yards, 16 TD, 16 interceptions, and 29 yards rushing.

Going through the same machinations and projections for Fiedler, his average 16-game season in 4 years with Miami would be: 257 completions, 435 attempts, 3032 passing yards, 18 TD, 16 interceptions, 238 rushing yards, and 3 rushing TD. Overall, those numbers are very similar to Feeley's.
Fiedler

Dave Thomas of Footballs Future had this to say about Feeley prior to the 2001 NFL Draft:

Positives... Well-proportioned athlete who knows how to manage an offense... Has a very quick setup, moving away from the center fluidly...Displays a high release point and even though he's more comfortable in the pocket, he shows good improvisation skills on the move...Touch passer with a good understanding of defensive coverage...has good poise in the pocket, rarely forcing his throws...Shows solid timing and consistency on slants and fades, feathering the ball past the defenders so his receivers do not have to work to make the catch...Can vary the speed on his passes and will step up and make the completion when his pocket collapses...Scans the field quickly to spot his open target and has the body control to make defenders miss when on the move.

Negatives... Does not have the arm strength or consistency to throw deep (note-player has just now fully recovered from a right elbow injury suffered in 1999 that affected his velocity)...His loss of velocity causes his balls to flutter and die when throwing from the opposite hash mark...Does not seem to throw across the body effectively, tending to go to a side-arm release on his deep throws...While he stands tall in the pocket, he does not have the lateral agility to escape when flushed out of the pocket or the quickness to gain much yardage past the line of scrimmage.

Career Notes…Unheralded athlete who gave the Ducks one of the best reserve quarterbacks in the nation last year...A former starter in 1999, many scouts feel that he will be a major steal on draft day for a team that utilizes a "West Coast" offense...In 22 games at Oregon, he completed 149 of 282 passes (52.8%) for 2175 yards, 15 touchdowns and only six interceptions.

Reminds Me of... Cincinnati's Jon Kitna.

After reading that, it's hard to get all warm and fuzzy over A.J. Feeley. He seems to be a perfect fit for the role he filled in Philadelphia-a capable NFL backup.

But now he is in Miami. The Dolphins, of course, have had nothing short of a train wreck of an offseason, with uber stud RB Ricky Williams retiring out of the blue and free agent WR David Boston already out for the season with a knee injury. TE Randy McMichael also had some off-field issues, but those likely will not prevent him from missing any time on the field.

Positives

• Miami thought enough of Feeley to invest a high draft pick to obtain him



• Performed pretty well in the few occasions he had to play in Philadelphia



• Scouts feel he has good game management skills and a lot of touch on his passes

Negatives

• Very unproven commodity switching to a new system and a different coach



• The Dolphins offense took some major hits this offseason and should struggle even more so than recent years



• Probably will be relegated to backup status with Fiedler keeping the starting job

Final Thoughts

Before Williams retired, the Dolphins were a run oriented team. What happens after that is a mystery. With Boston out for the year, now the passing game looks suspect as well (although the addition of Marty Booker should help). No matter who emerges as the starter in Miami should AT BEST be a fantasy reserve, and a case could be made that that guy should be left on the waiver wire.

So far this training camp, Feeley has received less than favorable reviews and it appears that Fiedler both entered camp as the starter and will likely exit camp as the starter. Neither Fiedler nor Feeley seem to have the ability required to revive what should be a struggling offense this year. On a team that needs a Dan Marino, Fiedler and Feeley will fall far short. He might get a shot once Fiedler posts some very bland numbers, but does it really matter? In fact, there may be several games this year where the Miami defense outscores the Dolphins offense.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

To view the entire Player Spotlight thread (there's a ton of fantastic commentary in there), click here.

TheDirtyWord:
"So unless, Feeley comes in and absolutely blows doors, I doubt to what degree the Dolphins have resolved their QB issues. Thus, in order for no QB whispers to occur, either Fiedler or Feeley will have to seize that job by the throat. If it's Feeley, talks of big projections have to be tempered by the fact that he probably still needs to go through some growing pains. Look at Jake Delhomme...even though he emerged as a pretty good QB in 2003, his early season performances were not worthy of FF consideration."

beto:
"Feeley is my major sleeper for this year. I think he has the skills to win the job in Miami over Fiedler plus he does have some experience under his belt from his injury duty in Philly when McNabb and Detmer went down. The other reason I like him are all the weapons in Miami. Ricky Williams, Chris Chambers, David Boston and Randy McMichael are all potential Pro Bowlers so he steps into a great situation."

Dolfan:
"I am shocked at how many of you seem soooooo high on AJ Feeley.

I will say that, in the few games he played at Philly, I was impressed with what I saw. And I love the Dolphins! But these projections all seem like best-case scenarios (with the exception of KKrew, Wood and maybe 1 or 2 others I'm forgetting). I mean, sure if everything gos right -- and I'd be loving life -- I can see 3700 yards and 24-27 TDs from Feeley, but don't you guys temper your projections a little bit for the unknowns???

I mean, literally everything has to fall just right for Feeley to get those kinds of numbers."

FinHead:
"Ray Lucas was actually a decent backup QB for the Jets 3 years ago, and he helped to destroy Miami's chances at a #1 AFC seed the next year. A lot of people were ready to anoint Griese as the unquestioned starter last year. While his TD/INT ratio wasn't much different than Fiedler's from last year, 3 of his TDs came against the unprepared Chargers in Arizona and during the next two games he had 4 fumbles lost and 9 sacks!

Fiedler is a smart, decent QB that doesn't lose games and fits Miami's current run style of offense. His injuries have been big downsides the last two seasons, but when he plays, the Dolphins win!

I predict that Miami will go through what Buffalo did 3 years ago, with the Flutie/Johnson QB controversy and that you'll see a pretty even split of starts and this will really hurt my team's chances as this season drags on."

Dolfan34:
"Feeley has some talent but he isn't the QB that everyone thinks he is (just about everybody anyway). Feeley's success in Philly was due to darn good coaching and a darn good defense. Reid was running a scaled down version of his offense when Feely won those games. And in all reality, it was the defense and special teams that won those games for them, NOT Feeley."

A.J. Feeley Projections