Jason Wood's Thoughts

Andre Johnson had what most would characterize as a promising rookie season, hauling in 66 catches for 976 yards and 4 touchdowns. That was good enough for a 23rd place finish among WRs, not a bad way to start an NFL career, although it was somewhat superseded by the unlikely an otherworldly season of fellow rookie Anquan Boldin.

To reiterate what a strong rookie campaign Johnson enjoyed, consider where he ranks among all NFL rookies (1970-Present):

• Receptions (8th)
• Yards (10th)

With that in mind, it stands to reason that Andre Johnson will be looked upon as one of the most promising candidates to ascend into the elite group of fantasy receivers in 2004. Is that a reasonable hypothesis? Let's take a look.

Since 1970, fifteen (15) receivers amassed 900 or more yards in their rookie seasons; including Andre Johnson and Anquan Boldin (who tops the all-time list). Looking at how they fared in their 2nd years is, at first, troublesome because so many missed time due to injury. However, adjusting their production on a per game basis, and then projecting those totals out over a 16 game schedule this is what they look like:

Comparison of Years 1 & 2 for the 13 WRs with 900+ Yards in Year 1

• Rookie Season (Adjusted for 16 Games) - 65 receptions for 1,059 yards and 8.4 touchdowns = 156 fantasy points



• Second Season (Adjusted for 16 Games) - 65 receptions for 1,076 yards and 6.8 touchdowns = 148 fantasy points

In other words, in aggregate the top-producing rookie WRs showed a slight decline in their 2nd years, primarily due to a drop off in touchdown production. Looking more specifically, only three of 13 (23%) improved on a PPG basis from Year 1 to Year 2, further clouding the notion that it's a foregone conclusion that a productive rookie WR is bound for improvement.

To be clear, this is not to suggest that one should expect Andre Johnson's numbers to decline in 2004, but it reinforces the notion that his situation bears close scrutiny. Here are a few things to consider:

• Development of David Carr - Carr only played in 12 games last year and was hurt for much of the season, yet that still doesn't adequately explain his failure to improve as a passer. The team threw for under 3,000 yards for the 2nd season despite major improvement on the offensive line and in the running game. He must take a huge step forward this year if Johnson is to improve. Recall that Andre was targeted 10th most among NFL receivers last year, so his improvement really has to come from more prolific passing, not from a bigger piece of the pie.



• Touchdown Production - The three rookies who improved out of the 13 in our data set all had one thing in common, substandard TD production as rookies. Despite catching more than 900 yards, each of the rookies who managed to improve in year 2 did so largely because they caught more touchdown passes. Specifically, Ernest Givins went from 3 touchdown receptions to six in Year 2; Jerry Rice from 3 touchdowns to 15 and Gary Clark from five to seven. This bodes well for Johnson, in my view, as he only caught four touchdowns in 2003 for a team that collectively threw 14 touchdown passes. One would expect the Texans will improve upon that metric this year, and Johnson has the physical size and polish to be the team's most effective red zone threat.



• Red Zone Targets - Carrying the TD production a bit further, it's interesting to note that despite Johnson being the team's most targeted receiver and despite his being the fastest and largest WR on the team, he was only targeted 10 times in the red zone last season. In looking at the rest of the team's offensive talent, there's no reason this number shouldn't increase in 2004.

Positives

• Prototypical size and speed, with more disciplined route running out of the box than most expected



• Expect improvement from the offense with a healthy David Carr at the helm for the full season



• Johnson should remain one of the most targeted WRs in the game given the other receiving options on the team (Gaffney and Bradford)

Negatives

• Houston must improve on one of the worst passing attacks in the league for Johnson to realize his considerable potential



• Must improve his consistency when catching the ball in traffic



• Is atop most people's "breakout star" list at WR

Final Thoughts

If you've watched Andre Johnson play you know he has a bright future in the NFL, which likely culminates in multiple 1,000+-yard seasons and a handful of Pro Bowls. And although the Texans shouldn't be expected to light up the scoreboard this year, the team should show enough maturation that it's quite reasonable to project Johnson into the 1,000+-yard camp this year. Furthermore, his 4 touchdowns last year (the only thing that kept him out of the top 20) should be considered in the context of the team having 14 total passing touchdowns; which means improvement can be expected on that front too. Basically, there is good reason to expect Andre Johnson to provide consistent production as a fantasy WR2 this season. The only caveat is whether or not you'll be able to roster Johnson late enough in the draft to reap the value of his projected finish; with the hype train in full motion on him already that may prove difficult. But if you can grab him as your WR2 after you've bolstered your other positions accordingly, I would happily do so.

Colin Dowling's Thoughts

When Andre Johnson accepted his "#1" Jersey last year on draft day, he became the best receiver on the Houston Texans roster. That's important, and here's why: His rookie season wasn't 16 games of "learning the position" and "getting worked into the rotation" and "garbage time experience." His rookie season was 16 games of being option #1, fighting off double-teams, being "the man" in the passing game, and being the key receiver for a team without a lot of firepower on offense. Much to the happiness of many, Andre shouldered the load just fine. A decent argument can be made that if his QB hadn't spent the month of November throwing it exclusively to Dom Davis (slight sarcasm), Andre Johnson might have had a thousand yards. Good stuff, rookie, good stuff indeed.

One reason for Johnson's success lies in an underrated aspect of his game: He runs nice routes. No, he's not Jerry Rice. He wasn't perfect last year, but his route running is better than average, and it's good enough to allow him to catch the ball often in full stride where he can turn it up field for additional yardage. He's also big and strong and undersized corners stand virtually no chance of bringing him down with an arm-tackle. Does he always make the tough catch? No. In fact, against the Patriots (if I recall correctly), he out-muscled Ty Law for a corner-fade in the end zone…and then let the ball go through his hands and bounce off his chest. However, for the most part, he's a consistent pass-catcher and a reliable route-runner, and that doesn't even take into account any offseason improvement he likely made.

In games with David Carr at the helm, Johnson was Carr's favorite WR target, and with the exception of a couple games where Carr dumped the ball to Davis a ton, Johnson was looked to early and often. It would be easy to blame Carr for not getting Johnson in the end zone, but the truth is, the Texans didn't exactly score a lot TDs - particularly through the air - in the first place. People who know me know I don't particularly care for David Carr's play, but even I admit things are going to get better for the Texans passing game, and consequently, for Andre Johnson. Toss in that the WR2 and WR3 will still be Jabar Gaffney and Corey Bradford barring a late-summer acquisition, and I'd say it's a safe bet that the main beneficiary of any Carr improvement is going to be Andre Johnson.

Taking all this into account, even the fact that he's a young second-year receiver, it's plausible that Andre Johnson will improve on his numbers this year. Why? Well, he finished in the top-30 in fantasy points and catches. The fact that everyone who finished ahead of him in fantasy points had more TDs than Johnson (4) is something to be excited about. We're not talking about a guy whose production was skewed by a number of TDs that might be hard to match again. The guy scored a mere 4 TDs all year, 2 of them in the same game, yet he was a viable Fantasy WR3 for the entire year. With even the most modest improvement in the end zone, he'll be a WR2. Now, bump his yardage totals a hair and his number of catches a smidgen, and you've got a guy who might threaten for WR1 status. Sounds good to me, except for one thing…

You're going to likely have to overpay for Johnson. He didn't do Sharks many favors last season by playing well and holding up the entire way. The fact that he dug in and looked like a 5-year veteran 2 weeks into the season won't be lost on the other guys in your league. On a well-known mock draft site, Andre Johnson was being selected roughly 16th out of all WRs, ahead of guys like Koren Robinson, Isaac Bruce, and Amani Toomer. That's a topnotch WR2.

Final Thoughts

I like Andre Johnson. I think he's going to be a very good receiver for a very long time. But I don't like his prospects this year. Is there upside? You bet. There's a TON. But at the top of the 5th round, are you already drafting upside, or are you selecting consistent contributors you can count on week in and week out. I've said before and I'm saying it now: Andre Johnson has the ability to justify his draft position wherever you take him. But if your goal in the early rounds is to build a solid-base, he may not be the guy for you.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

To view the entire Player Spotlight thread (there's a ton of fantastic commentary in there), click here.

EastBayFunk:
"No one doubted Andre Johnson's physical ability when he entered the league, but many did consider him a raw prospect. Indeed, he struggled with his hands at times last year. Nevertheless, Johnson made a huge impact from the get go. With a year of NFL experience under his belt he should be more adept at reading defenses and getting open. Couple that with his freakish physical tools and you have the makings of a very exciting player."

iwannabeacowboybaby!:
"My only problem with Andre Johnson is that everyone is high on Andre, to get him on your fantasy football team, you'll have to reach for him. So I feel that there isn't going to be any great value when it comes to drafting him."

jurb26:
"Here is what I see with Johnson; a great young and rising WR with tons of ability. Has got the Size, speed, and athletic ability to be great. Needs to work a bit on catching more consistently, but shouldn't be a problem. However, the Houston O line still needs a LOT of work, Carr is far from a finished project, and there is no reason teams should not double him all game long (no real threat across form him)."

WhoDat:
"The Texans are a solid little team and hung in most games last year. I would say Johnson has a great year. Davis will help take pressure off of Carr's shoulders and team appears to be high on their defense."

Repressed Dennis:
"The main problem I have with Andre Johnson is the fact that he had a grand total of 2 (that's TWO) red zone catches in 2003. I'm not sure how often a receiver scores 8-12 TDs without at least 5 short ones, and a second year player is often one who has more problems in getting open in the confined field of the red zone. Johnson looks like a physical monster, but I would not put him in the top-10 yet."

Andre Johnson Projections