Jason Wood's Thoughts

To say that Anquan Boldin surprised the fantasy football community last season would be like saying Lance Armstrong knows a thing or two about cycling. It just doesn't do justice to the season Boldin put together. After going largely undrafted in most redraft leagues, Boldin made his presence felt in Week 1 with 10 receptions for 217 yards and 2 touchdowns. What followed was a groundswell of waiver wire activity met with equal disbelief and predictions by some that Boldin's first game was an anomaly. Well, while Boldin didn't break 200 yards receiving the rest of the year, it's safe to say teams that picked up Boldin were more than satisfied with his performance the rest of the way:

• 101 receptions (3rd in the NFL, 1st ALL TIME among rookies)
• 1,377 yards (3rd in the NFL, 1st ALL TIME among rookies)
• 8 touchdowns
• 190 fantasy points (5th ranked WR)

As exceptional as Boldin's first year was, it appears that many people are trying to outsmart themselves by predicting a substantial drop off in production this season. Is that a reasonable assumption? Here are the critical issues to determining whether Boldin represents value this season.

• 100+ Receptions is a harbinger of excellence - 101 receptions is no small feat. In fact, since 1970, the 100-catch mark has been reached only 41 times. Those expecting Boldin to fall off a cliff fail to understand just how difficult it is to catch 100 or more receptions. Opposing defenses weren't oblivious to Boldin last year; he was the Cardinals lone weapon and yet, he continued to catch passes each and every week. He caught 5 or more passes in 12 of 16 weeks, and never caught less than 3 passes.

  A Study of Receivers with 100+ Receptions in Years N and N+1:

  Since 1970, there have been 41 "100+ reception" seasons in the NFL, three of which happened last year (Moss, Holt & Boldin).

  • Those receivers AVERAGED 109 receptions in Year N.
  • In year N+1, those receivers averaged (adjusted for injury): 93 receptions
    
    

  Furthermore, look at the distribution of receptions in Year N+1 (n=38):

  • 100+ Receptions for a 2nd consecutive year -- 11 (29%)
  • 90+ Receptions in Year N+1 -- 23 (61%)
  • 80+ Receptions in Year N+1 -- 31 (82%)
  • 70+ Receptions in Year N+1 -- 34 (90%)
    
    

  Only four of 38 receivers followed up a 100+ catch season with less than 70 receptions (projected to 16 game schedules if injured)...and 82% were good for 80 or more catches. In other words, the odds are firmly in favor of any receiver who is healthy and coming off a 100-catch season to have very solid results the following year.

• Dennis Green is an offensive guru - Dennis Green takes over the helm in Arizona this year. Green, best known for his decade long run in Minnesota, was also one of Bill Walsh' offensive coordinators in San Francisco. In any event, Green has done a remarkable job of consistently producing strong offensive units.

On average, Green's teams have passed for nearly 4,000 yards and an astounding 28 touchdowns. No Green coached team has ever thrown for less than 18 touchdowns, and only twice have his teams failed to take at least 500 passing attempts. The fact that Green was able to accomplish this with largely a revolving door at quarterback is that much more impressive.

• Larry Fitzgerald should benefit Boldin, not hurt him - The rest of the Cardinals receiving corps were woeful last season. Bryant Johnson (also a rookie) was second among WRs with 35 receptions. Tight end Freddie Jones was 2nd on the team with 55 catches. This year, Larry Fitzgerald, the highly regarded rookie out of Pittsburgh, joins the Cardinals and some fear Fitzgerald is going to hurt Boldin's production. Yet, a look back through history suggests otherwise. Did Cris Carter suffer when Randy Moss joined the team? Is Hines Ward hurt by Plaxico Burress? Was Eric Moulds hurt by Peerless Price (just the opposite in fact)? NFL defenses double teamed Boldin profusely last year; if Fitzgerald is half as talented as he is hyped, Boldin will see more opportunities for single coverage; a major positive.
  
  
• Boldin lead the league in yards after the catch (YAC) - In the West Coast offense, receivers must be able to make plays after the catch. The offense is largely predicated on getting the ball to receivers in short and intermediate routes in such a way that they can make plays in the open field. In that vein, Anquan Boldin appears to be ideally suited for Dennis Green's offense. Last year, despite being the lone offensive threat on the team, Anquan Boldin was better than anyone at getting yards-after-the-catch (YAC).

  YAC Leaders, 2003 (Wide Recievers)
  1. Anquan Boldin (ARI) - 571 yards
  2. Steve Smith (CAR) - 554 yards
  3. Laveranues Coles (WAS) - 489 yards
  4. Andre Johnson (HOU) - 445 yards
  5. Randy Moss (MIN) - 439 yards

• Cardinals Defense looks porous, once again - Resident stat guru and football historian Doug Drinen wrote an excellent piece examining the phenomenon of "garbage time" and how it impacted different teams and players. Anquan Boldin was among the league leaders in "garbage time points" meaning he saw lots of passes when the Cardinals were forced into throwing the ball in order to come back from sizeable deficits. In any event, the Cardinals don't appear improved defensively. The free agent addition of Bert Berry aside, Denny Green characteristically ignored defense in the draft and free agency and will field virtually the same unit that allowed the most points in the NFL last season.

Positives

• As dominant a rookie year as any in NFL history
• Boldin consistently delivered despite being the lone offensive threat for opposing defenses to game plan against
• Boldin is a precise route runner with excellent hands and ability to get yards after the catch

Negatives

• Dennis Green is moving Boldin from the slot "Z receiver" to split end "X receiver" in order to better avoid double teams; but a adjustment period may ensue
• Larry Fitzgerald, arguably the most hyped rookie WR in years, may infringe on Boldin's pass catching opportunities
• Josh McCown and Shaun King may not be the answer at QB, despite Dennis Green's confidence otherwise

Final Thoughts

Make no mistake about it; Anquan Boldin's 2003 season was no fluke. Look back at other receivers who've had 100+ catches and it's clear that barring injury, he'll remain productive. Should you count on another 100-catch season? Of course not; but there's a very strong case to be made that 80-90 catches is within reason. Add to that an improved supporting cast to help keep defenders from focusing on him, a offensively minded and proven new head coach in Dennis Green, a move to split end, and the fact that Boldin can make plays after the catch; and you have a perfect recipe for Boldin to once again provide solid returns as a fantasy WR1 this season. Don't get caught up on the idea of Larry Fitzgerald stealing Boldin's thunder. Receivers who put up 101 catches for 1,377 yards the first year in the NFL don't come along too often, much less in back-to-back years on the same team. Draft accordingly.

David Yudkin's Thoughts

Anquan Boldin, a second round draft pick out of Florida State, had one of the singularly greatest first games in professional sports history, a 10 reception, 217-yard, 2 TD performance against Detroit. Boldin, 6'2", 205 lbs, became the king of the waiver wire, as it's unlikely anyone had him on a roster and inserted in their lineup in week one. The true fantasy experts, of course, predicted a quick drop-off for Boldin, as surely he would not be anywhere near that productive again and would toil as most rookies do the rest of the season.

In the course of the next 6 games, the experts were right. Over that stretch, Boldin posted decent but not great production: 32-404-0 (6.7 fantasy ppg). Some fantasy owners grew tired of waiting for Boldin to reach double digits in fantasy scoring again and sent him back to the free agent pool. Those owners made a major tactical error, as Boldin picked it up again over the second half of the season. He bounced back with 59-756-6 over his final 9 games (12.8 ppg).

His year-end total of 101-1377-8 (187 fantasy points) was the second highest scoring season for a rookie WR in fantasy history behind Randy Moss' 234 points scored in 1998. For his efforts, Boldin ranked as the #5 WR last year. If a rookie were to be that productive last year, few thought it would be Boldin. He was the sixth WR selected in the NFL draft last season-and second on his own team behind first round selection Bryant Johnson.

In hindsight, it's easy to see how Boldin became so productive. The Cardinals were terrible on both sides of the ball, ranking dead last in points scored and points allowed. Their running game never really got untracked with venerable Emmitt Smith out with a shoulder injury and Marcel Shipp only marginally effective. Arizona QB actually had more rushing TD (three) than all of their RB combined (two).

In the passing attack, TE Freddie Jones was the #2 receiving option behind Boldin. Johnson had 35 receptions, which for a rookie is not that bad when trying to learn the intricacies of the pro game. Shipp also was a so-so option out of the backfield. Overall, there were not a lot of options to throw to.

This year, Dennis Green has come in as head coach, and he promises 10 wins and a much stronger team. Over time, he certainly made the offense in Minnesota one of the best in the game. But can he turn around one of the most unsuccessful franchises over the past decade?

One of the first items of business for Green was announcing that Boldin would be moving from a wideout to a slot position in a 3 WR set that would be the cornerstone of this year's Arizona offense. The "Big 3" will include Boldin, Johnson (as a deep threat), and mega-hyped rookie Larry Fitzgerald, who was on Green's wish list from Day One.

Another early determination by Green was announcing that Josh McCown would be the team's starting QB. Arizona elected to stand by McCown and stick with Fitzgerald in the draft, as many prognosticators insisted the Cardinals needed to draft a franchise QB. In 5 games with McCown at QB, Boldin compiled 39-407-2 (10.4 ppg).

In his first year in Minnesota, Dennis Green improved the Vikings from 8-8 to 11-5. He also increased their scoring output from 301 to 374 points. In that first season, he utilized Terry Allen as the primary running back but spread the ball around in the passing game. That team was more run centric than the Cardinals will likely be, so be prepared to see McCown airing the ball out frequently, especially without any real changes made to personnel on defense.

Positives

• Had one of the best seasons ever for a rookie WR with over 100 receptions and almost 1,400 receiving yards
• Poor defense + poor rushing team + consistently behind = Lots of passing
• Offensive-minded coach brought in to shake things up and get the offense to move the ball

Negatives

• Role in the Cardinals' offense may diminish in a more balanced offensive scheme
• Rookie Larry Fitzgerald hailed as the next big thing and a clone of (insert name of All Pro/HOF WR here)
• Very few WR have posted back-to-back seasons with 100 receptions. Retaining that level of production will be extremely difficult

Final Thoughts

It's actually a lot easier to envision Boldin performing worse than better this year, as he was so productive right out of the gate. Arizona has produced several WR over the past few years that did phenomenally well over a brief period and then seemed to evaporate: David Boston, Frank Sanders, and Rob Moore. That trio did not do much other than that year or two in the spotlight, and they did next to nothing later in their careers or on other teams. (The verdict is still out on whether Boston can get back to where he once was.)

With more balance and more weapons on offense (and likely an attempt to better establish the ground game), Boldin should not be expected to reach the levels he did last year. I expect him to rank in the Top 10-15 WR range this year.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

To view the entire Player Spotlight thread (there's a ton of fantastic commentary in there), click here.

fightingillini:
"Boldin had a great year in '03 as a rookie. Has a lot of talent....runs good routes, has good speed and makes some tough grabs. However, he had a ton of garbage-time stats, which IMO is hard to assume will continue. Fitzgerald will steal some grabs from him. Since Fitzgerald is Dennis Green's "guy", I can envision Denny getting Fitzgerald to have an integral part of the offense."

Iwannbeacowboybaby!:
"Anquan Boldin is tall, fast, runs quality routes and comes back to the football when thrown. So many rookies wait for the pass to get to them, but somewhere along the way he's learned this, which is one of the reasons I feel he's advanced so quickly.

I don't see the sophomore slump coming to Anquan this season. However, I don't see a spike in numbers either. With the new coaching staff, the addition of yet another wide receiver, he'll do well to stay near the numbers he posted last season."

beef:
"1377 yards may be a fluke, 8 TD's really isn't that much and with a better system he could see that again, but 101 catches is no fluke though. I don't care if they were garbage time or what not, he played against teams #1 DB's and beat them. He didn't slow down during the year either. This guy has a great attitude, outstanding work ethic, and will be a great possession receiver for quite some time."

Duffman:
"I do think Boldin is a very talented WR, but my conservative nature makes me think there's no way he can duplicate his rookie season. I see 4 problems:

1. Different QB (Blake has a history of locking onto one guy)
2. Stud rookie WR (could become #1)
3. Different coach (not sure what effect this has)
4. Statistical tendency to regress to the mean"

TheDirtyWord:
"What you also have to take into consideration, and this has been mentioned above, is that you don't spend the #3 overall draft pick on a #2 WR. Say what you will about how Boldin performed...the one thing he hasn't done is perform in crunch time. If Fitzgerald comes in and quickly displays the same attributes in the pros that he displayed in college, Boldin will be the #2 WR pretty quickly. Not to mention that Bryant Johnson has a lot of talent and is making strides."

Anquan Boldin Projections