Jason Wood's Thoughts

I'm generally the type of person who avoids tight ends until late in the draft. Last year, I undertook an analysis of the TE position and came away confirming what many of us thought, but never quantified: Beyond two or three elite TEs each year, very little separates the rest of the group. Specifically, my analysis showed that there was, on average, less a 1 point per week difference between the 4th best fantasy TE and the 10th best in a given season.

Why is that relevant? Because if you look at average draft results, many people, despite missing out on the likes of Tony Gonzalez and Todd Heap, spend high draft picks on the "next tier" of TEs when in fact, history shows that some shrewd late round selections can and will yield similar year end results. That means while others are drafting people like Boo Williams and Randy McMichael, you can shore up your WR corps and maybe add an elite backup QB knowing full well that you'll get a solid TE later while they are scrambling to decide between Kyle Boller and Philip Rivers as their backup QB.

Unfortunately, Antonio Gates looks like a player who WON'T offer the TE value proposition this year. Believe it or not, this unheralded Chargers TE is being taken in the 9th round of Antsports 12-team mock drafts, five rounds ahead of tight ends like L.J. Smith, Daniel Graham, Marcus Pollard, and Jim Kleinsasser.

Don't get me wrong, I'm fairly constructive on Gates' chances for success this year. The 2nd year converted WR out of Kent State has size (6'4", 260 lbs.) and speed to burn (he averaged 16.2 yards per catch last season) and has as good a chance as any to finish among the top 10 at the position. The Chargers appear on track for another woeful campaign and beyond LaDainian Tomlinson, there is a dearth of viable receiving options. As such, if Gates builds off last season's success (21 receptions, 351 yards and 2 touchdowns in the final 7 games) he should easily see enough targets from Drew Brees and Philip Rivers to put up 40-50 catches with a commensurate amount of yards.

It's just that again, this is a tight end who has 24 receptions to his NFL resume, two touchdowns and is part of what should be one of the worst teams in the league. Now that the book is out on Gates, and he's one of the few potential weapons in the passing game, how will he handle being a focal point of opposing defenses? His limited pedigree and the easily replaceable nature of fantasy TEs (beyond the few elite players) make me leery to draft ANY tight end in the 8th/9th round let alone someone who hasn't been highly productive for a full season yet.

Positives

• Gates is one of the few receiving options on the Chargers that appears to have downfield speed and the ability to play effectively in the red zone



• Drew Brees looked to Gates repeatedly last year, and rookie QBs (a la Philip Rivers) have a history of targeting the TE as a safety valve



• Gates size and speed combination give credence to those who feel he's on the verge of being a standout player at the position

Negatives

• His production, while impressive, was only over a 7 game stretch, can he keep it up now that defenses have film on him?



• Will anyone be effective in the San Diego passing attack this year?



• With Tomlinson the team's lone elite weapon, will the team keep Gates in to block (or perhaps bench him entirely) to open up running lanes?

Final Thoughts

Antonio Gates is among the most hyped "sleepers" at the tight end position this year thanks to a solid stretch in the 2nd half of his rookie season, the lack of talented receivers on the Chargers roster, and his gaudy 16.2 yards per reception mark a season ago. Those reasons certainly justify Gates as a fantasy TE with top 10 potential this season barring injury. However, we must remember that he's still raw, hasn't proven himself over a full season and will be a focal point of opposing defenses this year for the first time. Given how little differentiates most tight ends beyond the elite few (i.e., Gonzo, Heap and Shockey), I'm not sure I see the logic of spending an 8th/9th round pick on a player like Gates when you can have someone like Marcus Pollard, Daniel Graham or Jim Kleinsasser four or five rounds later. Gates won't find himself on many of my teams this year, not because he won't be a top 10 TE, but because I'm planning on finding a top 10 TE much later in the draft.

Chase Stuart's Thoughts

In case you missed it, undrafted rookie Antonio Gates blew up the last month of the season. Recording 217 receiving yards the final three weeks of the season will get you noticed, and most astute fantasy players are on the Gates bandwagon. Here's some background information on him:

• Gates, who played basketball at Kent State, is a tremendous athlete



• With good speed for his size (6'4, 260) he has all the physical tools to dominate on the football field



• He caught 57.1% of the passes targeted for him, an impressive number for a rookie TE catching Drew Brees' passes



• However, he is long on potential and short on production right now



• He had just seven career receptions until week thirteen of last year.

Last season I was very high on Stephen Alexander, the starting tight end for the Chargers a year ago. Quite similar to Gates, Alexander ended 2002 on a strong note-he was the third best TE the last nine weeks of that year. However, the biggest reason for liking Alexander last year (who by the way, missed the whole season due to injury) and wanting Gates this year is that they play for the San Diego Chargers.

Sure, the Chargers haven't been a good team in awhile-but that doesn't hurt a tight end's prospects. Gates has very little competition for catches in the offense. Tony Gonzalez and Todd Heap excel because there are no star receivers on that offense. Well, the Chargers have the worst receivers in the league.

Additionally, the Chargers team ineptitude works in Gates' favor for another reason. They will be behind, and they'll be forced to pass the ball. Last year, San Diego ranked twelfth in pass attempts. They're going to throw the ball 500+ times this year, and LaDainian Tomlinson can't catch every one of them. With David Boston gone, someone will have to catch those 880 yards. Their top three receivers, Kevin Dyson, Tim Dwight and Reche Caldwell, missed TWENTY-NINE games due to injury last season. Suffice it to say, a healthy Antonio Gates will be targeted more than most tight ends in 2004.

Positives

• Lots and lots of targets-he could easily finish among the top five tight ends in this statistic



• No really, outside of LT there's almost no competition for passes. SD will be passing the ball quite a bit, and their WRs have serious durability issues



• Head Coach Marty Schottenheimer gave Gates a lot of praise last year, and he could become a favorite of the coach. Here's a quote from last December: "I don't want to get too overzealous about the young man, but barring injury he has the opportunity to be a terrific tight end in the NFL."



• Gates had an excellent 'yards per catch' average last year, and could develop into one of the few game breakers at the position



• With a rookie QB, expect Gates to be used as an outlet option a lot this year. As a result, he may be even more effective if Phillip Rivers starts most of the games

Negatives

• Gates is very inexperienced, and hasn't really proved anything to date



• Since the Chargers offense is so anemic, Gates might have to deal with more double teams than a player of his ability would often see. Defenses will be able to cheat towards him if none of the receivers meet expectations



• The Chargers have a bad offensive line, and Gates may be held in to block for their franchise QB



• LaDainian Tomlinson will touch the ball more than any player in the NFL this year, and he figures to get around half of their touchdowns

Final Thoughts

Many players have had great three-game stretches, and done nothing to write home about afterwards. Gates has to do a LOT to prove himself as a capable starting TE in the NFL, so don't just assume dependable numbers. The way I see the TE position, there's not much difference between the sixth or seventh best tight-end, and the fifteenth or sixteenth best player. I'd feel comfortable drafting Gates and another one of those midrange guys, for insurance. Gates is a boom/bust fantasy pick, but I happen to think he's going to have a good year. You simply can't ask for a much better situation for a tight end.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

To view the entire Player Spotlight thread (there's a ton of fantastic commentary in there), click here.

KKrew:
"Other than LT, are there any FFL options on the Chargers? I guess Gates qualifies."

bigmiiiiike:
"It is true that the SD QB situation will be bad this year. The WRs couldn't break away from my grandma, but along with Tomlinson, Gates will be a bright spot for SD. Rookie QBs rely on their TEs a lot, and gates has all the tools to be a top tier TE. I see him blossoming more so by default though, as the WRs are just that bad. He'll be SDs version of Crumpler when price went out in ATL and the QB had no one to throw to."

Spartans Rule:
"1. Very few receivers consistently put up a YPC over 15, much less tight ends.

2. 24 catches is a very small sample size. Its dangerous to place too much stock in his YPC over that span.

Most top TEs put up YPCs around 12, so I figured Gates for 12.5 this season."

Northern Voice:
"First there's the theory that young QBs, especially rookies (Rivers) lock on to TEs.

Beyond that, there's the fact that Gates has no receivers around him who are obviously better options (save for Tomlinson)."

Antonio Gates Projections