Jason Wood's Thoughts

Longtime Footballguys subscribers know that one of my mantras is that players need two things - Ability & Opportunity - to become fantasy stars. For 2004, Ashley Lelie couldn't have a bigger opportunity unless he somehow switched bodies with Randy Moss or Marvin Harrison. The Broncos absolutely need Lelie to validate their selection of him with the 19th overall pick (2nd receiver drafted) in the 2002 draft. The team faces major offensive holes thanks to the departure of Clinton Portis (traded to Washington), and the retirement of Shannon Sharpe and Ed McCaffrey.

From a receiving standpoint, those three players represented:

• 119 receptions


• 1,279 yards


• 8 touchdowns

When your team only passes for 3,100 yards to begin with, you can't afford to not find adequate replacements for another 1,300 yards of production. When you also consider that Rod Smith showed signs of aging last year, finishing with less than 1,000 yards for the first time since 1996, Ashley Lelie will have every opportunity to become a consistent playmaker in Denver.

So we know he has the opportunity, but does he have the ability? Lelie wouldn't be the first high draft pick to bust, but it was just two years ago when pro scouts projected Lelie as one of the best receivers coming out of the draft. From his NFL.com Draft Profile:

Positives: Big downfield target who is very quick getting through the crease … Physical blocker who excels at keeping his feet inbounds while going up for the sideline passes … Runs sharp pass routes and has shifty movements to avoid contact … Does a nice job stopping and coming back for the ball … Shows great concentration and a confident demeanor hauling down the high pass in traffic … Has the body control to twist and adjust for the ball in traffic … Has an explosive burst in and out of his cuts to set up the defenders and has no wasted motions in his stride … Catches with his arms extended, excelling in the over-the-shoulder grabs … Will face up as a blocker vs. the blitz and is effective cut-blocking at the second level … Makes good field decisions and knows when to come back when the quarterback is flushed out of the pocket … Tough runner after the catch, using his body well to shield and elude on fade routes.

Yet, two years into his NFL tenure, Lelie has caught 35 and 37 passes, respectively and scored a whopping 4 touchdowns in 32 games. On the positive side, his speed is evident, averaging 16.0 yards per catch over his two seasons.

So why has Lelie failed to produce at a level most NFL observers expected?

• He's had difficulty getting off the line; his skinny frame has hampered his ability to beat jams at the line of scrimmage



• He has a tendency to short arm passes, something he didn't do in college



• He's suffered lapses in concentration; and a questionable work ethic in camp



• Minor hamstring issues have limited his opportunity to work with the first team offense in prior seasons

The good news is all of these issues are fixable; and Lelie's draft reports were too sterling to believe we've seen his best. However, don't think the team will simply keep him in the lineup all year because of his pedigree. I would suggest that if he's not demonstrably more refined and playing well by the midpoint, unheralded Darius Watts and Adrian Madise would be in line for more looks.

Positives

• Lelie has every opportunity to emerge alongside Rod Smith with the retirement of Shannon Sharpe and Ed McCaffrey



• Lelie was regarded as a polished receiver coming out of college, he has the skills necessary of a WR1 - albeit they've been dormant in his two pro seasons



• Mike Shanahan remains one of the most talented offensive minds in the game

Negatives

• The team was in the bottom half of the league in passing yards and TDs last year; with Shannon Sharpe and Clinton Portis, the offense could drag to a halt this season unless Plummer blossoms in year 2 under Shanahan's watch



• Lelie has not looked sharp in early preseason action



• The jury is still out on Jake Plummer, particularly if he needs to be more prolific absent an adequate replacement for Clinton Portis in the rushing attack

Final Thoughts

From a distance, Ashley Lelie seems like the perfect breakout candidate. He's entering his 3rd season; he's got a stranglehold on a starting position for a team that desperately needs playmakers to emerge in the passing game. Lelie has the pedigree of a high first round pick and is coached by one of the best offensive minds in the league. At worst, Lelie should be a solid complement to Rod Smith; but there's a very real chance he could overtake Smith as the go-to receiver given Smith's age and 4-year downtrend. HOWEVER, looking deeper and watching Lelie play raise caution flags. We know Lelie is a burner (witness his 16.0 career YPC) but he has troubled shedding tight coverage, rarely beats out defenders in jump ball situations, has shown an unwillingness to go over the middle, and has displayed a propensity to catch balls with his chest rather than going out and getting them; which can lead to plenty of dropped passes and intercepted throws.

I would watch Lelie very carefully in training camp and during the preseason. If he doesn't elicit positive feedback from camp observers and/or fail to impress in preseason game action, I wouldn't risk a high pick on him. However, if he starts to display the play making ability expected of him, he could deliver in a huge way, i.e., top 20 numbers if the cards fell right. If you're drafting too early to get a good read during camp and preseason, I would pass on Lelie and let someone else roll the dice.

Marc Levin's Thoughts

Ashley Lelie has been on the top of many fantasy players' sleeper lists since before the 2003 season. However, while there were mere unfulfilled hopes when he was rookie in 2002, there was unrealized potential in 2003. Heading into his third year with the Denver Broncos, and on the heels of the retirement of receiving options Eddie McCaffrey and Shannon Sharpe, it is now put up or shut up time for the young receiver. Lelie has been penciled in across from Rod Smith as the Broncos second starting receiver ever since McCaffrey retired. However, the biggest concern on Lelie - a concern which dates to when he was drafted - is his concentration. He drops passes and misses opportunities - a problem that did not get solved in 2003 with Lelie converting only 37 of the 81 targets that came his way (that's around 45%, for those keeping track). There was very little improvement shown from his rookie year to second year, and even less shown over the course of the 2003 season. Finally, the 2004 preseason reports on Lelie are not encouraging.

Training camp reports are that he has been dropping passes and rounding his routes instead of cutting crisply. He has dropped passes in his limited appearances in preseason games. As yet, there are no reports of a possible demotion from the starting lineup. Finally, and what should most concern Lelie, is that rookie receiver Darius Watts has been turning heads in training camp. He also has been making the catches during the preseason games that Lelie is supposed to make. Not a good start when you are a receiver on the cusp - and these are horrible reports if you are hoping for Lelie as a sleeper candidate. Simply put, he has not grown any since entering the league, even though he has all the physical skills a deep threat receiver should have (including a nice 17 YPC average on those 37 passes he was able to convert in 2003).

Another issue is that the Broncos have run the ball a lot more the last two or three years than in years past, so it is essential that Lelie turn limited opportunities into big time production if he wants to continue to start - or if he is to develop into a productive member of your fantasy squad. As the deep threat, it is essential that he catch the ball when he is open and it comes his way downfield. His lack of concentration and rounding off of routes is therefore disappointing. When you have a reliable, sure-handed, crisp route-running receiver across from Lelie in Rod Smith, and when that veteran is a guy who developed the communication with QB Jake Plummer that Lelie has been unable to create, you are looking at a guy's fantasy prospects moving from "sleeper" to "high risk" in a hurry.

That said, the team may pass a lot more this year, which may open up opportunities for Ashley Lelie if he holds onto the starting job. Last year's 3126 yards passing on 478 attempts were the lowest team numbers in those categories since before their Super Bowl years. Historical averages indicate the team will probably pass quite a bit more this year than they did last year. That thought is buffered by the team's unsettled RB situation, potentially forcing the team to the air more often than when Portis was around.

From a fantasy redraft perspective, since August 1, under standard performance scoring, in 12 team leagues, Lelie has carried an average draft position somewhere around the bottom of the 7th round, and around the 31st WR off the board. That's only about a round and a few WR spots after teammate Rod Smith. However, Rod Smith has an upside to be your solid starting WR2, while Lelie, as mentioned, has been backpedaling from sleeper candidate to high risk player. I do not call that good value for Lelie. Solid WR3 candidates are consistently being drafted after him, including Keenan McCardell, Keyshawn Johnson, Reggie Wayne, Donald Driver and Deion Branch, Those WRs seem to represent significantly greater opportunity for steady production and much better value if someone in your league drafts Lelie near his ADP.

The biggest question you have to ask yourself before pulling the trigger on Lelie is whether he will develop the mental aspects of the game - including route running, concentration, and more consistent hands. I am sure the Broncos' staff is asking themselves the same question in regard to whether Lelie should remain the Broncos second receiving option. I was going to discuss how the new bump rules might aid Lelie in that he might be able to use his speed to get past the cover men a little better, and to break through the press, and I was going to discuss how the Broncos face a very weak bunch of pass defenses this year, but, to be honest, I have to believe he'll catch the ball when it gets to him in order for those things to matter.

There have actually been encouraging reports recently from Broncos' training camp that Lelie was catching everything that came his way after a three day layoff due to soreness in his back and hip, but, in the most recent Broncos' preseason game against the Buffalo Bills, Lelie once again displayed a lack of concentration and dropped passes. If, as the preseason progresses, you are encouraged by what you see from Lelie, and believe that he will have the concentration he has been lacking over the last two years, by all means, you may have a diamond in the rough on your roster. If you continue to see dropped passes, though, you can bet the coaching staff does, too.

Positives

• Is likely to be the Broncos' second receiver across from a number one receiver in Rod Smith who should continue to garner most of the defensive backs' attention



• Has all the physical skills of speed and size to excel in the NFL



• He should be available late enough in most drafts to be considered a sleeper candidate

Negatives

• Has not seemed to evolve much since his rookie year as he continues to round his routes and drops passes



• Is feeling pressure from behind as rookie Darius Watts is having a fantastic training camp and preseason



• Absence of Portis and Sharpe may enable defenses to concentrate more on him and Smith

Final Thoughts

I will not be targeting Ashley Lelie for many of my fantasy teams. Most casual fantasy fans will probably reach too high for him as many preseason fantasy rags and other sites' fantasy rankings will continue to have him ranked not too far behind Rod Smith and ahead of more reliable fantasy receiving threats. Unless I start seeing hands of super glue emerging in the last couple of preseason games, I continue to worry about Lelie turning his opportunities into production. You can't have good fantasy numbers if you are dropping passes, killing drives, losing the confidence of your QB and head coach. Especially where a prime, consistent, reliable veteran lines up opposite you and fights for those clutch catches.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

To view the entire Player Spotlight thread (there's a ton of fantastic commentary in there), click here.

Blackjacks:
"I picked this guy late his rookie year and have held on to him and have gotten fooled by his upside more than once. I think he can catch the long ball better than most the WRs in the NFL but until you get consistency and you can catch a 5 yard slant across the middle your value in the fantasy world will always be slim."

Spartans Rule:
"Its kind of funny - last year, I had Ashley Lelie ranked as the #65 WR on my board. Insanely low compared to where most had him. This year I expect him to end up on most of my teams.

Its not that I thought Lelie sucked. In fact, when I've seen him play I've been very impressed. The problem last year was just that Denver had Clinton Portis, Rod Smith, and Shannon Sharpe. When projecting the Broncos, I could barely find enough numbers for those three established studs, much less predict a breakout for a 2nd year player.

But now Portis has been traded, Sharpe has retired and Smith has gotten another year older."

loser:
"Lelie had trouble dealing with being jammed at the line last year. Word is he's bulked up this offseason. That's great, but he must work better with his hands to gain separation. Until I see this from him, I won't consider him a go to receiver. Maybe the added weight will help. We'll see."

Frenchy Fuqua:
"I was on the Lelie bandwagon last year and I was disappointed. I think this kid has all the talent necessary to be a star. He has as much big-play ability as any WR west of Minnesota. His confidence took a hit after a few key drops and Plummer rarely looked to him the second half of the year. Lelie also seems to be a bit on the fragile side. But the opportunity is ripe for him this year if he can regain his confidence and stay healthy."

Ashley Lelie Projections