Jason Wood's Thoughts

According to Vikings Insider:

As VU is hearing it, the current plan is to have Bennett run the ball 15-18 times a game, with Onterrio Smith spelling him for approximately one drive per half and getting eight to 10 carries a game. Moe Williams will remain the third-down and short-yardage back and will likely get five to eight carries a game.

It sounds to me like we're looking at a conventional running back by committee (RBBC) situation in Minnesota. So, with that in mind, assuming the aforementioned splits play themselves out over the course of the season, the Vikings RB stable would resemble something like this:

• Michael Bennett - 240 to 288 carries
• Onterrio Smith - 128 to 160 carries
• Moe Williams - 3rd downs, plus lots of receptions and short yardage TDs

Is this a reasonable set of assumptions? Let's look at the team's rushing tendencies. The Vikings are a potent offensive unit, ranking 6th in passing completions and 7th in rushing attempts last season. The team rushed 493 times last year, an average of 31 rushes per game.

Assuming the Bennett/Smith/Williams splits are as mentioned, this would imply 368 to 448 carries combined between Bennett and Smith, plus a passel of carries for Moe Williams. Assuming Daunte Culpepper, a rushing threat himself, carries the ball his standard 60 to 80 times, the team is looking at:

• Bennett - 264 carries (midpoint of 15-18)
• Smith - 144 carries (midpoint of 8-10)
• Culpepper - 70 carries (midpoint of 70 to 80 for the season)
• 478 carries between the three

This suggests that even if the Vikings are among the top rushing teams in the league again, there is little opportunity for Moe Williams to carry the ball AND for the Vikings Insider predictions to hold true. Although the lower end of the assumptions (i.e., 15 carries for Bennett and 8 carries for Smith) would yield a more palatable 438 carries including Culpepper; leaving plenty of room to work Williams and perhaps rookie Mewelde Moore into the equation.

Of the three running backs in question, I believe Michael Bennett's workload is the "safest" to predict, and that 240 carries should be the minimum expectation provided Bennett remains healthy. Consider what Mike Tice said in a recent Q&A session:

Q: What about Michael Bennett?
A: Bennett looks like what we thought he would be when we drafted him. He looks bigger, more physical, certainly more focused. I mentioned that to him this morning. He's grown up some. I think that adversity last year made him realize how special it is to be in the National Football League, and I think he's going to have an impact year. I really do.

Essentially, after suffering a potentially career threatening foot injury last year, Bennett is more appreciative of his opportunity. He's been a beast in film study, has become a more vocal leader, basically he's done everything and more to cement his position as a team leader on and off the field.

Combine that with unquestioned talent and I see no reason why Bennett shouldn't be the focal point of the rushing attack. I was critical of Bennett coming out of Wisconsin, but over his NFL tenure he's developed patience, and allows blockers to set up holes for him rather than running full steam ahead and hoping for a seam.

Clearly, the presence of Onterrio Smith and Moe Williams cannot be ignored on the other hand; which is why I believe Bennett is more likely to have 240 carries than 300. Smith, who is now infamous for dubbing himself the "SOD - Steal of the Draft" saw very limited action until Bennett succumbed to injury. But, when finally given his chance in Week 15 against Chicago, Smith rushed for 148 yards on 27 carries. His 146-yard, 3-touchdown effort the following week against Kansas City proved Smith was no fluke. Now, before anyone extrapolates those two games over 16 weeks and starts thinking Smith is a threat to replace Bennett; remember that Chicago and Kansas City weren't exactly defensive stalwarts last season.

Positives for Bennett

• The starting role is Bennett's to lose, and by all accounts he's dedicated himself to making sure that doesn't happen



• Bennett is a threat to score from anywhere on the field, and should have ample opportunities to break long runs thanks to the Vikings' excellent offensive line



• Bennett has become a much more patient runner, he has learned to let seams develop versus his "run for daylight" philosophy coming out of college

Negatives for Bennett

• Bennett's foot injury was considered potentially career threatening and we've yet to see if he can withstand the punishment of a full season



• Bennett shares the backfield with arguably the deepest stable of RBs in the league; all would be productive with more playing time



• Bennett isn't an overtly talented receiver nor a polished blocker; this could limit his opportunities to play every down

Positives for Smith

• Onterrio is a multifaceted running back, considered one of the most "NFL Ready" backs in his draft class



• Smith acquitted himself favorably when given the opportunity late last season, it's not inconceivable he could play his way into a true RBBC or even the feature role as the season wears on



• Bennett's carries will be limited versus other feature backs for a variety of reasons, Smith will get a chance to make plays each and every week

Negatives for Smith

• Michael Bennett appears firmly entrenched as the starting tailback



• Smith's maturity and work ethic were called into question, which lead to his lower-than-expected draft position



• Onterrio has shown a propensity for minor injuries in his collegiate career; we don't know if he's capable of handling a heavy NFL workload

Final Thoughts

There's no escaping the fact that Minnesota has a balanced rushing attack that will feature different players in different situations. Certainly, with Daunte Culpepper at QB, Moe Williams poised to again play in 3rd downs and some short yardage situations, and Smith and Bennett both healthy and ready to contribute, there isn't much likelihood that any of these runners will lead the league in rushing the way Robert Smith did when he was atop the Vikings depth chart. However, Michael Bennett was the starter before (and after) his foot injury last year and Mike Tice has been consistent in his philosophy that you don't lose your job to injury. By all accounts Bennett is bigger, stronger, more focused and healthier than ever and should be in line to play the majority of downs. But, Bennett's injury history, size and the team's depth all but assure that he'll be hard pressed to see many 20+ carry games. Onterrio Smith can spell Bennett with little drop-off, in my opinion, and that will mean that he too should see a decent amount of work, in excess of 100 carries this year.

Don't be afraid to roster Michael Bennett as your RB2, although personally I would view him as one of the best RB3s to grab in the third round if available. I don't see his upside being 1,400+ yards UNLESS Onterrio Smith were injured, but given Bennett's high YPC and the strength of that line, Bennett can approach 1,200 yards rushing in only 240-260 carries. Don't count on him for double digit scores, but recognize that 6-8 is realistic because he's a threat to break an 80 yard run on any possession. Meanwhile, in redraft leagues, consider Onterrio Smith as one of the better backups to roster. Were Bennett to succumb to injury, Smith could end up with fantasy RB1/RB2 numbers in his own right.

Chase Stuart's Thoughts

Since Mike Tice became head coach in 2002, the Minnesota Vikings have been a dominant running team. Despite not having a superstar RB, they have run for 4,850 yards, and have averaged 483 carries each of those two years. They are clearly one of the best rushing teams in football, and that's not going to change anytime soon. While Moe Williams and Daunte Culpepper are both going to have significant chunks of yards this year, we're going to just focus on Michael Bennett and Onterrio Smith.

Last season, the two combined for the following stats:

• 197 carries
• 1,026 rushing yards
• 5.2 YPC
• 6 TDs
• 27 receptions
• 261 receiving yards
• 9.7 YPR
• 165 fantasy points

Michael Bennett was injured for most of last season, and only played the final eight games. He's now healthy and ready to improve on a strong 2002 season. In 2002, Bennett carried 255 times for 1,296 yards and five scores. He was also effective out of the backfield, catching thirty-seven passes. We know Bennett is going to run for a high yards per carry, as he's one of the fastest players in the league. We also know that he's not going to get many of the goalline carries, especially on a team with so many weapons near the goal line (Culpepper running, Moss, Moe Williams, Onterrio Smith, Jim Kleinsasser and Marcus Robinson). The big question for me is how many receptions will Bennett get? The difference of 200-300 yards will play a big factor in how he ranks this year.

Onterrio Smith, the self-proclaimed "Steal of the Draft", is backing up Bennett. He probably would join a committee situation with Moe Williams ala 2003, if Bennett was to get banged up. Smith really played well as a rookie, and he had two monster games late in the year. He may be one of the top five backup RBs in the league, but I have a hard time seeing where he's going to get the carries this year. Especially with the addition of Marcus Robinson (and maturation of the other young WRs), I could see Minnesota passing the ball more in 2004. If Randy Moss' injury is worse than it appears, I see that as a bad sign for the entire offense. Even if the RBs benefit from increased carries, I think they'll see their yards per carry drop significantly. Moss is the best downfield threat in the game, and as a result defensive backfields cannot focus on stopping the run. In his six seasons in the league, Minnesota has finished in the top five in yards per attempt FIVE times, and tenth, once. That was in 2001, Randy Moss' worst year as a pro. (It was also the bridge year between Robert Smith and Michael Bennett-it was Bennett's rookie season).

Positives

• Minnesota has a great running system in place, and that should only improve as mammoth T Bryant McKinnie matures



• With Daunte Culpepper and Randy Moss, Minnesota RBs are generally running against softer defensive schemes, and rarely see eight men in the box



• Bennett has all-world speed that leads to tremendous big play ability. He can take it to the house every time he touches the ball



• Onterrio Smith is almost as fast as Bennett, and is a more natural runner. He's got impressive raw skills, and could certainly be productive in this offense

Negatives

• Moe Williams and Daunte Culpepper will really hurt their value. Consider this: Culpepper and Williams have combined for 2,184 rushing yards, 895 receiving yards, and 33 touchdowns the past two years. Those 3,079 yards and 33 touchdowns combined are Clinton Portis type numbers



• Bennett had a very serious foot injury last year, and he may be more susceptible to injury. Either way, Coach Tice will probably nurse him a bit, since he's got such depth at the position



• Smith isn't a better third down back than Moe Williams, so he may have to fight for playing time. He's not going to get many games with more than fifteen carries, and will likely hold no value on a week-to-week basis

Final Thoughts

Michael Bennett will probably have pretty good year-end stats. I think you could probably do better in terms of consistency at the position, but Bennett should finish inside the top 24 RBs. Getting him in the early third is pretty good value, as I think he'll eclipse 1,000 yards. Onterrio Smith, to me, has almost no value if Bennett stays healthy. Smith may have one game with 70 yards and a touchdown, but I can't see anyone starting him on a weekly basis. He's too risky to even be a bye week fill-in, and has little more value than someone like Stephen Jackson. In the fantasy world, thirty yards a game really isn't much better than ten. I wouldn't be shocked to see Smith traded at some point, because I believe Bennett is the Viking back of the future. I don't think Smith even has a chance to win the job with a good training camp, so it would take a Bennett injury for Smith to become a viable fantasy starter. As long as Culpepper and Moss stay healthy, Minnesota should once again be a dominant offensive team, no matter who is in the backfield.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

To view the entire Player Spotlight thread (there's a ton of fantastic commentary in there), click here.

Bayhawks:
"Despite Smith's back-to-back huge games, Tice went back to Bennett for the season finale. There were 33 rushing attempts in that game-7 by C-Pep, 1 each by Moss and Kelly Campbell, and 24 by RBs. Bennett had 12 of those, Williams had 7, and O Smith, fresh off of his 2 monster games, HAD 5! This makes me think that Bennett seems to be Tice's guy, unless he is injured. When you combine that with the reports coming out of Minny, it makes me think Bennett will be the main RB. Williams and Smith will get there touches, to be sure, but Bennett will be a solid #2 RB."

KKrew:
"Who knows how the Vikings' RB situation will shake out? Mike Tice? I doubt it.

What do we know? We know the Vikes run the ball pretty well. They've averaged about 440 rushing attempts, 16 rushing TDs and 2100 rushing yard over the past 5 years. Someone will get touches, someone will get TDs and someone will get yards..."

Loco Barlow:
"This year will be mostly Bennett carrying the load. The Vikes need to showcase him and show that he is healthy so that he'll carry maximum trade value next offseason."

Biabreakable:
"The biggest problem for Bennett is he will not likely get the ball at the goal line. If he would get 20+ carries/game without sharing so much and got the goal line carries he could compete as a RB 1. But that is not going to happen. I expect him to get the ball 16-18 times a game most weeks. Some weeks he might have carries lower than that when the Vikings get up early in the score for example. He will have some big games though where he gets the ball 22 or more times and breaks off a long TD which will inflate his yards up around 150. I wouldn't take him in the 2nd round as a RB 2 even though his year end #s could easily warrant this I think. If you deviate and take a WR in round 2 I think Bennett should get consideration for you in round 3 or obviously even better round 4."

beef:
"With everyone healthy I see the Minnesota rushing totals all going up this year. They have a real solid chance of not just being a top 5 rushing team, but #1 overall. Their back-ups could be starters on some other teams and I do see the carries being split up a bit more than what others think."

Michael Bennett Projections

Onterrio Smith Projections