Spotlight - QB Brad Johnson, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
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Posted 9/2 by Jason Wood and Colin Dowling, Exclusive to Footballguys.com
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Jason Wood's Thoughts
The Buccaneers pass the ball
a lot.
In two seasons under Jon Gruden, the Bucs have attempted 567 and 592 passes,
respectively. Last year the Bucs were 3rd in the league in pass attempts and
completions, and finished 6th in passing yards and 5th in touchdowns. Leading
that attack, of course, is Brad Johnson; the former Florida State Seminole backup
turned Super Bowl winning gun slinger.
Brad Johnson finished 12th last season among fantasy QBs, which was somewhat
misleading thanks to an abnormally high number of interceptions (21) and a major
disparity between the first half and second half of the season.
- First 8 Games - 186 for 296 (63%), 2070 yards, 16 TDs, 8 INTs
- Second 8 Games - 168 for 274 (61%), 1741 yards, 10 TDs, 13 INTs
What's odd about Johnson's second half was that at no point in his career as
an NFL starter did he display the propensity to turn the ball over with as much
frequency. Prior to last season, his TD-to-INT ratio was 114-to-74, among the
league's best. So what caused Johnson's fall off last year, can we pinpoint
the cause?
One obvious difference is the presence of Keyshawn Johnson. Johnson played
in Weeks 10 and 11 (the first two games of Johnson's second half) but only sparingly,
and was deactivated for the remainder of the season. The team was left with
a skeleton crew at WR. This year, the Bucs have WR depth to be sure, but is
the collection of projected contributors better than a year ago? That depends
on a few factors:
- Will Keenan McCardell be part of the team?
- How much does Tim Brown have left in the tank?
- How quickly can rookie Michael Clayton adjust to the speed of the NFL game?
- Are Bill Schroeder and Charles Lee capable of contributing in multi-WR sets?
Another factor is the collapse of the offensive line. At first glance, the
Bucs O-line appeared stout in pass protection allowing only 20 sacks last season
despite the Bucs attempting the 3rd most passes in the league. However, the
pocket frequently collapsed and Johnson was the victim of one of the league's
highest number of QB pressures; and the lack of a cohesive pocket forced Johnson
into throwing the ball too quickly and trying to make things happen in lieu
of throwing the ball out of bounds. This season, the Bucs have brought in four
veterans to bolster the offensive line; and their play will go a long way in
determining how close Johnson comes to his 2002 numbers.
Don't be scared of the supposed competition
No one can argue with the fact that Brad Johnson isn't Jon Gruden's guy. Gruden
hand picked Rich Gannon when he signed on with the Raiders and turned the journeyman
into a perennial All Pro. But Gruden had no such luxury in Tampa, inheriting
Johnson. After BJ led the team to a Super Bowl and was among the league's most
efficient passers in the process, there was no way Gruden could justify making
a move last season. But with Johnson turning 34 and throwing 21 picks last year,
there was some talk that the team would pursue other options this year. Yet,
the veteran QBs were never acquired (had Rich Gannon been released in Oakland
this might have been a different story) and once training camp began, neither
Chris Simms nor Brian Griese showed enough polish to legitimately challenge
Johnson. So love him or not, Gruden seems resigned to going with BJ again this
season.
Positives
- Accurate, efficient pocket passer who has enjoyed successful campaigns
in several different systems
- The vaunted "competition" never materialized in training camp,
the job is Brad Johnson's lock, stock and barrel in 2004
- The team has made improving the offensive line a focal point; adding four
veterans to compete for jobs
Negatives
- The offensive line remains a work in progress, with the majority of the
new additions hampered by injuries early in camp
- Johnson's INT bonanza was the result of "happy feet", at 34 years
old can Johnson shrug off his fears if the line doesn't improve?
- Defenses will likely play the pass aggressively this season with the Bucs
propensity to pass a lot exacerbated by the addition of RB Charlie Garner;
a better receiver than runner
Final Thoughts
I have Brad Johnson ranked 15th among fantasy QBs and believe he's going to
look more like the 2002 version than the 2003 version. The WR corps is deep
and multifaceted, the offensive line has depth this year, and Johnson has looked
sharp in camp and received praise from Gruden; notable given Gruden's long-rumored
desire to replace him. I don't think we should count on BJ throwing for 4,000
yards this season, but the Bucs will be among the top 5 or 10 teams in passing
again, and Johnson has shown he's capable of capitalizing on opportunity. Consider
Johnson an adequate QB2 and someone who could put up some very big weeks if
you're looking to use a quarterback committee this year.
Colin Dowling's Thoughts:
Brad Johnson has won a Super Bowl. He's also completed more than 60% of his
passes in every season but one since he's been in the league. He's thrown for
more than 20 touchdowns for three different teams and over 3000 yards in 5 of
7 seasons as a full-time starter. He had 8 games of more than 2 touchdowns last
season, including two 4 TD games and one 3 TD game. He also tossed it for over
300 yards three separate occasions. Obviously, he's prone to "going off"
and posting monster games.
And he's being selected as the 16th quarterback in redraft leagues, in the
middle of the 9th round, after the "big name" starters are gone (except
Gannon), yet before the "chance" picks like Byron Leftwich and David
Carr. In other words, Johnson is the last of the proven quarterbacks, which
is exactly why you should at least consider him as your second QB.
In my opinion, this draft position is the low-side of what we can expect of
Brad Johnson. In the last 3 seasons, he's finished 9th, 12th, and 18th in points
per game among quarterbacks. He's in a potent passing attack that at any given
time can and will have 5 receiving options on the field most of the time. The
offensive line is improved and Jon Gruden clearly has the team's offense headed
in the direction he wants - pass short, pass middle, run a little, pass some
more. Brad Johnson can, and most certainly will benefit from Year 3 of Gruden
and his potent passing attack in Tampa.
Are there risks? Certainly. Gruden openly shopped for another QB in the offseason
and while it's unlikely, Johnson could be shown the bench in favor of Chris
Simms. Similarly, Keenan McCardell's holdout certainly weakens the talent at
wide receiver a bit.
However, the addition of Charlie Garner and Joey Galloway, in addition to the
return of Mike Alstott and the general improvement of the offensive line should
balance things out, giving Johnson a chance to make a true fantasy impact this
season.
Positives
- 3rd year in the system, good enough surrounding talent to excel
- Prone to "big" games of multiple TDs and/or lots of yards
- High completion percentage
- Proven in different systems, clearly can handle a starting gig
- Being drafted after all but a couple of the other "proven" starters
- Best/easiest schedule for a quarterback in the league, including the playoffs
Negatives
- Could lose playing time if the team falls out of contention of Gruden chooses
to make a change
- Threw WAY too many interceptions last season. To be fair though 7 of the
22 picks were in the last 2 games of the year
- No McCardell means someone is going to have to step in to the role of WR1
and make plays.
Final Thoughts
Clearly, the risk associated with Brad Johnson has more to do with whether
or not he'll hold on to the starting job, not whether or not he can play at
a high level. In my opinion, the point is moot: If he's playing badly enough
that Chris Simms takes over as the starter; you wouldn't be playing him (Johnson)
for your fantasy team anyway. Your other option is to take a quarterback that
is virtually guaranteed a starting job, but is in no way guaranteed to do anything
with it. (Boller, Grossman, Carr, Harrington).
Brad Johnson has to be considered one of the 2 or 3 best choices for a top-tier
QB2 with QB1 potential in a pinch. Don't get caught up looking for the next-big-thing
as your backup quarterback. You're not going to bench Donovan McNabb the
moment David Carr has a couple good games. Select someone you can count on IF
you need them, not someone who's going to keep you guessing as to which weeks
they're going to be productive.
Quotations from the Message Board Thread
To view the entire Player Spotlight thread (there's a ton of fantastic commentary
in there), click here,
KKrew:
"As I projected stats for the Bucs I was thinking that I was overly
optimistic about them. As it turned out, I was very high on Garner, but relatively
realistic on most of the others. That includes Brad Johnson. The last time I
checked ADP numbers Johnson was going about QB#16. That's where I have him.
He'll do OK passing but he's not going to produce anything on the ground."
diesel7982:
"Is everyone predicting the Bucs to throw less and run more with Garner
instead of Jones/Pittman?
That isn't happening. If the 6 deep WR corps and the large set of pass blocking
OL added (Deese, Stuessie, etc) weren't a good enough indication, ill spell
it out. Brad will air the ball out this season."
imprisoned Saints fan:
"Good fantasy QB, just because of volume if nothing else.
The Bucs pass the ball probably more than any team in the NFL. The addition
of Garner to a backfield already laden with pass catchers makes it even more
extreme this year."
Brad Johnson Projections
Source |
PassYds
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TDs
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INTs
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RushYds
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TDs
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FntPts
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Jason Wood |
3595
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24
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16
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40
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0
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264
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Colin Dowling |
3585
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22
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15
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30
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0
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255
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Message Board Consensus |
3666
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24
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17
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20
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0
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264
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