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Spotlight - QB Brad Johnson, Tampa Bay Buccaneers


Jason Wood's Thoughts

The Buccaneers pass the ball…a lot.

In two seasons under Jon Gruden, the Bucs have attempted 567 and 592 passes, respectively. Last year the Bucs were 3rd in the league in pass attempts and completions, and finished 6th in passing yards and 5th in touchdowns. Leading that attack, of course, is Brad Johnson; the former Florida State Seminole backup turned Super Bowl winning gun slinger.

Brad Johnson finished 12th last season among fantasy QBs, which was somewhat misleading thanks to an abnormally high number of interceptions (21) and a major disparity between the first half and second half of the season.

  • First 8 Games - 186 for 296 (63%), 2070 yards, 16 TDs, 8 INTs

  • Second 8 Games - 168 for 274 (61%), 1741 yards, 10 TDs, 13 INTs

What's odd about Johnson's second half was that at no point in his career as an NFL starter did he display the propensity to turn the ball over with as much frequency. Prior to last season, his TD-to-INT ratio was 114-to-74, among the league's best. So what caused Johnson's fall off last year, can we pinpoint the cause?

One obvious difference is the presence of Keyshawn Johnson. Johnson played in Weeks 10 and 11 (the first two games of Johnson's second half) but only sparingly, and was deactivated for the remainder of the season. The team was left with a skeleton crew at WR. This year, the Bucs have WR depth to be sure, but is the collection of projected contributors better than a year ago? That depends on a few factors:

  1. Will Keenan McCardell be part of the team?


  2. How much does Tim Brown have left in the tank?


  3. How quickly can rookie Michael Clayton adjust to the speed of the NFL game?


  4. Are Bill Schroeder and Charles Lee capable of contributing in multi-WR sets?


Another factor is the collapse of the offensive line. At first glance, the Bucs O-line appeared stout in pass protection allowing only 20 sacks last season despite the Bucs attempting the 3rd most passes in the league. However, the pocket frequently collapsed and Johnson was the victim of one of the league's highest number of QB pressures; and the lack of a cohesive pocket forced Johnson into throwing the ball too quickly and trying to make things happen in lieu of throwing the ball out of bounds. This season, the Bucs have brought in four veterans to bolster the offensive line; and their play will go a long way in determining how close Johnson comes to his 2002 numbers.

Don't be scared of the supposed competition

No one can argue with the fact that Brad Johnson isn't Jon Gruden's guy. Gruden hand picked Rich Gannon when he signed on with the Raiders and turned the journeyman into a perennial All Pro. But Gruden had no such luxury in Tampa, inheriting Johnson. After BJ led the team to a Super Bowl and was among the league's most efficient passers in the process, there was no way Gruden could justify making a move last season. But with Johnson turning 34 and throwing 21 picks last year, there was some talk that the team would pursue other options this year. Yet, the veteran QBs were never acquired (had Rich Gannon been released in Oakland this might have been a different story) and once training camp began, neither Chris Simms nor Brian Griese showed enough polish to legitimately challenge Johnson. So love him or not, Gruden seems resigned to going with BJ again this season.

Positives

  • Accurate, efficient pocket passer who has enjoyed successful campaigns in several different systems


  • The vaunted "competition" never materialized in training camp, the job is Brad Johnson's lock, stock and barrel in 2004


  • The team has made improving the offensive line a focal point; adding four veterans to compete for jobs


Negatives

  • The offensive line remains a work in progress, with the majority of the new additions hampered by injuries early in camp


  • Johnson's INT bonanza was the result of "happy feet", at 34 years old can Johnson shrug off his fears if the line doesn't improve?


  • Defenses will likely play the pass aggressively this season with the Bucs propensity to pass a lot exacerbated by the addition of RB Charlie Garner; a better receiver than runner


Final Thoughts

I have Brad Johnson ranked 15th among fantasy QBs and believe he's going to look more like the 2002 version than the 2003 version. The WR corps is deep and multifaceted, the offensive line has depth this year, and Johnson has looked sharp in camp and received praise from Gruden; notable given Gruden's long-rumored desire to replace him. I don't think we should count on BJ throwing for 4,000 yards this season, but the Bucs will be among the top 5 or 10 teams in passing again, and Johnson has shown he's capable of capitalizing on opportunity. Consider Johnson an adequate QB2 and someone who could put up some very big weeks if you're looking to use a quarterback committee this year.


Colin Dowling's Thoughts:

Brad Johnson has won a Super Bowl. He's also completed more than 60% of his passes in every season but one since he's been in the league. He's thrown for more than 20 touchdowns for three different teams and over 3000 yards in 5 of 7 seasons as a full-time starter. He had 8 games of more than 2 touchdowns last season, including two 4 TD games and one 3 TD game. He also tossed it for over 300 yards three separate occasions. Obviously, he's prone to "going off" and posting monster games.

And he's being selected as the 16th quarterback in redraft leagues, in the middle of the 9th round, after the "big name" starters are gone (except Gannon), yet before the "chance" picks like Byron Leftwich and David Carr. In other words, Johnson is the last of the proven quarterbacks, which is exactly why you should at least consider him as your second QB.

In my opinion, this draft position is the low-side of what we can expect of Brad Johnson. In the last 3 seasons, he's finished 9th, 12th, and 18th in points per game among quarterbacks. He's in a potent passing attack that at any given time can and will have 5 receiving options on the field most of the time. The offensive line is improved and Jon Gruden clearly has the team's offense headed in the direction he wants - pass short, pass middle, run a little, pass some more. Brad Johnson can, and most certainly will benefit from Year 3 of Gruden and his potent passing attack in Tampa.

Are there risks? Certainly. Gruden openly shopped for another QB in the offseason and while it's unlikely, Johnson could be shown the bench in favor of Chris Simms. Similarly, Keenan McCardell's holdout certainly weakens the talent at wide receiver a bit.

However, the addition of Charlie Garner and Joey Galloway, in addition to the return of Mike Alstott and the general improvement of the offensive line should balance things out, giving Johnson a chance to make a true fantasy impact this season.

Positives

  • 3rd year in the system, good enough surrounding talent to excel


  • Prone to "big" games of multiple TDs and/or lots of yards


  • High completion percentage


  • Proven in different systems, clearly can handle a starting gig


  • Being drafted after all but a couple of the other "proven" starters


  • Best/easiest schedule for a quarterback in the league, including the playoffs


Negatives

  • Could lose playing time if the team falls out of contention of Gruden chooses to make a change


  • Threw WAY too many interceptions last season. To be fair though 7 of the 22 picks were in the last 2 games of the year


  • No McCardell means someone is going to have to step in to the role of WR1 and make plays.


Final Thoughts

Clearly, the risk associated with Brad Johnson has more to do with whether or not he'll hold on to the starting job, not whether or not he can play at a high level. In my opinion, the point is moot: If he's playing badly enough that Chris Simms takes over as the starter; you wouldn't be playing him (Johnson) for your fantasy team anyway. Your other option is to take a quarterback that is virtually guaranteed a starting job, but is in no way guaranteed to do anything with it. (Boller, Grossman, Carr, Harrington).

Brad Johnson has to be considered one of the 2 or 3 best choices for a top-tier QB2 with QB1 potential in a pinch. Don't get caught up looking for the next-big-thing as your backup quarterback. You're not going to bench Donovan McNabb the moment David Carr has a couple good games. Select someone you can count on IF you need them, not someone who's going to keep you guessing as to which weeks they're going to be productive.


Quotations from the Message Board Thread

To view the entire Player Spotlight thread (there's a ton of fantastic commentary in there), click here,

KKrew:
"As I projected stats for the Bucs I was thinking that I was overly optimistic about them. As it turned out, I was very high on Garner, but relatively realistic on most of the others. That includes Brad Johnson. The last time I checked ADP numbers Johnson was going about QB#16. That's where I have him. He'll do OK passing but he's not going to produce anything on the ground."

diesel7982:
"Is everyone predicting the Bucs to throw less and run more with Garner instead of Jones/Pittman?

That isn't happening. If the 6 deep WR corps and the large set of pass blocking OL added (Deese, Stuessie, etc) weren't a good enough indication, ill spell it out. Brad will air the ball out this season."

imprisoned Saints fan:
"Good fantasy QB, just because of volume if nothing else.

The Bucs pass the ball probably more than any team in the NFL. The addition of Garner to a backfield already laden with pass catchers makes it even more extreme this year."


Brad Johnson Projections

Source
PassYds
TDs
INTs
RushYds
TDs
FntPts
Jason Wood
3595
24
16
40
0
264
Colin Dowling
3585
22
15
30
0
255
Message Board Consensus
3666
24
17
20
0
264
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