Jason Wood's Thoughts

If your drafting style is at all like mine, I tend to draft conservatively in the early rounds and then roll the dice on "upside" later in the draft. If your WR1 or WR2 falls well short of expectations, that can be difficult to recover from - BUT, if you're WR4/WR5 fails to make an impact, it's a simple process to cut them loose and roster someone else.

With that in mind, it stands to reason that either Woods or Lloyd warrant your attention on draft day; not because you expect them to be top 20 players per se, but because the situation is so cloudy in most people's minds that both players very well COULD outperform their expectations.

Change is afoot in San Francisco, and collectively the team doesn't appear equipped to be among the league's best offenses in 2004. The West Coast offense, the foundation of the 49ers glory years, has been officially replaced by Dennis Erickson's deep passing stylings. Jeff Garcia, a 3-time Pro Bowler, was shown the door for Tim Rattay. Greg Knapp is now the Falcons offensive coordinator; opening the door for new OC Ted Tollner. And perhaps the biggest change of all, Terrell Owens and Tai Streets have both departed, leaving a collection of receivers including Lloyd and Woods to pick up the considerable slack.

Assessing Brandon Lloyd: Getting a WR1 for WR4 Prices

Brandon Lloyd is, on average, the 41st WR drafted in 12-team leagues. That implies he'll be no better than a spot starter and WR4 for competitive fantasy teams. Barring injury, I see no way Lloyd doesn't outperform that ranking. Yes, the 49ers have a deep receiving corps vying for time: Lloyd, Woods, Cedrick Wilson, Curtis Conway, Derrick Hamilton and Arnaz Battle. However, there has been nothing to indicate that Brandon Lloyd is anything less than the top receiver on that team. When the team let Terrell Owens and Tai Streets go, it was Lloyd who the coaches cited as being someone who had the ability to step into a starting role. It was Lloyd who dominated mini camps. It was Lloyd who entered training camp as the top receiver and has, by most accounts, been the best pass catcher day in, day out.

"I love watching Brandon Lloyd play football," left tackle Kwame Harris said. "I love watching him catch the ball. I love watching him run down the field and do his celebrations. He's a heck of a player, and he's going to make a name for himself in this league."

Tim Rattay added, "He just makes plays. He has very good body control, so you can throw him a ball that's behind him and he's able to turn his body mid-stride, which a lot of guys have a hard time doing."

"He's graceful like Lynn Swann," said Lloyd's current position coach, Eric Yarber. "He's got that great body control and great timing for leaping. But a present-day player he reminds me of is (St. Louis Rams wide receiver) Isaac Bruce because he's so smooth, and he can be at full speed and stop on a dime.

Unfortunately our hobby is based largely on numbers. And Lloyd's 14 receptions for 212 yards and 2 touchdowns fail to inspire the inner-number-crunchers among us. Yet, Lloyd's ascension into the 49ers lead role started early last season. Entrenched behind Owens, Lloyd didn't see the field much but stories about his exemplary practice performances made the rounds. If there was one knock on Lloyd, it was his size; but he showed up this season weighing almost 15 pounds more.

Any way you slice it, Brandon Lloyd is the top receiver on a team that won't stop throwing the ball simply because Kevan Barlow is their best weapon. How many other WR1s can be had in the second half of your draft?

Rashaun Woods: 2005 and Beyond Should Be His Focus

With Owens and Streets gone, there is some misconception that Woods, a talented first round draft pick, had the best shot of winning a starting job in camp. Yet, Woods (like most rookie receivers) needs time to adjust to the rigors of the game, learn a new offense, and develop timing with his quarterbacks. There's no question that Woods has the talent to succeed eventually, but I'm not sure there's any reason to project him ahead of Brandon Lloyd or Cedrick Wilson. Where Woods fits into the mix at WR3 with Curtis Conway, Arnaz Battle and Derrick Hamilton remains to be seen.

Woods, who briefly held out of training camp, has also been hampered by a sore hamstring. I don't believe he'll get the requisite work to project as a starter at the beginning of the season. Longer term, his prospects have to be considered bright, but I wouldn't be as inclined to roster Woods in a redraft league as my WR4/WR5 because he's not likely to be much more than WR3 on a team that's not going to light up the scoreboard.

Final Thoughts

Thinking of this in investing terms, both Lloyd and Rashaun Woods are "long term buys" meaning that both have the talent and opportunity to be impact receivers down the line. However, we know that Lloyd is the class of the WR group thus far and is the only one assured of a starting spot. We can't say the same for Woods, who legitimately may be no better than the 49ers 3rd or 4th WR to open the season. Focusing on upside is always a novel approach later in your draft; but the key is picking the right players. Lloyd WILL be the team's WR1 and that means he could easily exceed his draft position whereas Woods may or may not be in the WR rotation. Lloyd is one of my favorite late round WR options, but I'd leave Woods to the dynasty league guys in 2004.

Marc Levin's Thoughts

In this combined Player Spotlight, I am faced with two receivers who have almost no NFL experience. Woods is a rookie and Lloyd caught only 14 passes in 2003 behind Terrell Owens and Tai Streets. Those two guys are gone (along with starting QB Jeff Garcia), thus elevating Lloyd to the top of the WR depth chart. Since the team drafted Woods in the first round with the 31st pick, the natural assumption is that he will start right away, even though he is battling other receivers that include veteran free agency acquisition Curtis Conway, fellow rookie Derrick Hamilton, and returning young receivers such as Arnaz Battle and Cedrick Wilson.

When faced with a rookie, I look first at his scouting report coming out of college. I saw Woods a good deal in college and he was an elite, record-setting player. Had it not been such a receiver intensive draft this year, he likely would have been a top-20 or top-15 pick. Physically, Woods has all the tools - size, speed, separation, and ability to adjust his routes to the defense. Adjustments and separation are good qualities to have as he will be looking to get passes from a relatively inexperienced Tim Ratty or Ken Dorsey. The only thing I see holding Woods back from starting is how long it takes for him to adjust to the NFL game. Veteran Conway would probably start if Woods is not ready.

As for Lloyd, he didn't come out of college highly touted because he lacked some tangibles - like stopwatch times and body shape. Players who are 6 feet and 185 pounds aren't expected to beat up cornerbacks. But, he was getting deep on some of the best college cornerbacks and he had a penchant for the big play. His body size is similar to, or bigger than, many of the league's "playmakers" at WR - such as Marvin Harrison, Torry Holt, Santana Moss, Derrick Mason, Laveranues Coles and Hines Ward. That's a who's who of top-12 fantasy receivers. Lloyd has what should be labeled "football speed." When the ball is snapped, he's fast enough and quick enough to get behind defenders.

OK, that's the physical analysis. Both these players require a "fantasy formula" analysis. Talent plus Opportunity equals Production. The talent has been discussed already, and both have a decent amount of it. Opportunity is really the question mark. Though Lloyd is #1 on the depth chart and Woods is likely to be #2, which may not mean much in the San Francisco offense.

Though the team talks a good game, it is clear the offense will be mostly dependent on RB Kevan Barlow now that RB Garrison Hearst departed along with the exodus of the starting passing squad. Also, neither Rattay nor Dorsey will put the instant fear of the pass into defenses. It is unknown whether Rattay will develop a good rapport with one of these guys or one of the other receivers on the roster. Also, Rattay's ability to develop a connection was stunted by his injury during minicamps. Finally, the team's best way to get passing yards when Barlow gets shut down will likely be a spread formation from the shotgun using four receivers.

So, it is questionable whether either receiver will top 100 targets on the year. Without at least 100 targets, it is unusual for receivers to make a major fantasy impact. Still, Lloyd may deliver some big plays and Woods' size and talent may be quite useful in the red zone. Those are two factors that are extremely helpful in accumulating TDs. In Lloyd's case, he may be one of those receivers who is quiet for a game or two and then busts out a 4 catch, 120 yard game. Since both receivers are readily available late into most redrafts, you can afford to take either on a flyer as your WR 4/5. They have much more value in best starter and dynasty leagues as I expect them both to have their moments and I expect them both to develop over the next few years into decent fantasy options.

Positives

• Both have extremely favorable average draft positions in redraft leagues and tremendous upside if they end up being reliable
• Opportunity could be plentiful - even if the team throws for less than 3000 yards, someone has to catch passes in the offense, and the starters are likely to catch the most
• Both have the talent to "make it" in the NFL

Negatives

• The "new" offense without Hearst, Owens, Streets and Garcia is a question mark, especially at QB
• Both are very inexperienced and should be considered rookies - and productive rookie receivers are the exception, not the rule
• Though they are the presumptive starters right now, either or both could be replaced if they don't learn fast

Final Thoughts

Not much more to say here. They don't cost much to add to your team, they have nice upside potential if they work out, but I don't expect either to crack the top-24 of fantasy WRs.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

To view the entire Player Spotlight thread (there's a ton of fantastic commentary in there), click here.

KKrew:
"Everyone I talk to assumes that the Niners will be pathetic offensively in 2004. Garcia's gone. Owens is gone. Hearst is gone. Erickson is terrible. It's all bad.

OK. I'll buy that! But, how bad can the Niners really be? In the past five years they've averaged 41 offensive TDs! I'm guessing that even though they'll be hurtin', they'll 'only' decrease in TD production by 20%. That means there are 33 TDs to go around! Woods and Lloyd are bound to get a few of those (no, Barlow can't get 'em all!)."

jurb26:
"This is going to be Barlow's team and every D in the league is going to know it. Big plays should surface from the young, talented, but inconsistent WRs on SF. Lloyd is entering the year as #1 but I don't expect him to finish it there. Woods is a surprisingly polished WR for a rookie and could make big strides in just a years time. With all the attention on Barlow and the running game both of these youngsters should be able to find openings. Only problem is who is going to be getting them the ball?"

Voodoo Rage:
"I'll give Lloyd the credit here. I don't see Woods overtaking him. The Niner's have been pretty impressed with Lloyd ever since his first acrobatic TD catch in week 9 against the Rams last year. Lloyd has put on some weight and best of all, HAS A GOOD ATTITUDE. As crappy as the 49ers may be this year, I wouldn't be surprised to so him put up numbers good enough to make him a starter in a 12 team league."

Huskylaw:
"But I'm not really expecting him to come in this year and be an impact player for the 49ers. Not because of his talent, but because of questions about the 49ers QB situation, and also because I think there is a bit more competition for receptions than people think. The Curtis Conway signing has been all but forgotten on this board. Now granted, Conway isn't a guy I expect to get out and catch 80 balls and post 1000 yards with 8 TDs But Conway averages 50 catches a year and a little over 700 yards a year."

EastBayFunk:
"To be honest I don't think any of them are #1 WR material. Woods is a nice player, but he strikes me more as complementary guy. The same goes for Lloyd. Conway might actually be the best bet here, but one has to wonder if he has anything left in the tank. Overall I'd say look elsewhere for your WR help."

Brandon Lloyd Projections

Rashaun Woods Projections