Jason Wood's Thoughts

I'm not going to spend a lot of time dissecting this situation. Although there are a variety of outcomes to consider, few if any offer enticing fantasy production in redraft leagues. There is no question that trading for Philip Rivers and a handful of other draft choices in exchange for Eli Manning makes a lot of sense for the future development of the Chargers.

However, 2004 doesn't look much brighter than 2003. Yes, the team still has LaDainian Tomlinson, and he'll likely continue to show why he's one of the three or four best players in the league. And certainly his excellence as a receiver out of the backfield will help keep the quarterbacks completion percentages respectable. This is a team that despite finishing 4-12, actually got WORSE on offense this year. David Boston, however mercurial, was the team's lone threat at WR and has been replaced by (GASP) Kevin Dyson. For those unaware, Kevin Dyson can't stay healthy, has never caught more than 54 passes in a season and has never ranked among the top 30 fantasy WRs in six years in the league.

If the Chargers are truly looking to build a long-term winner, they are better off letting Drew Brees (or Doug Flutie) start the season and take their lumps. I'm a big believer in the power of letting young QBs learn from the sidelines for a while and believe that history certainly favors those young signal callers who get a chance to watch and learn. That said, could the Chargers afford to sit their marquee offseason acquisition and still put people in the stands?

Positives

• Rivers was amazingly productive in college and rocketed up the draft boards as he performed in bowls and in personal workouts
• Defenses will key on LaDainian Tomlinson each and every game, so there will be a handful of big play opportunities available for the QBs game in, game out

Negatives

• There are three quarterbacks on the roster capable of starting NFL games, but it's unclear whether there is more than one (Rivers) still considered capable of WINNING NFL games
• Aside from Tomlinson, the Chargers sport arguably the least talented team in the NFL
• Even if Rivers is given the shot to start the season, rookie QBs rarely produce anything better than marginal fantasy results

Final Thoughts

One thing we can be sure of is that Philip Rivers will get his chance to quarterback the San Diego Chargers. Whether that chance comes the first game of this season, midway through the year or not until 2005 remains to be seen, and at this point your guess is a good as mine.

If I were handicapping the situation, I would think Brees gets a few games to start the year (or even Flutie) and neither is worth drafting in standard sized redraft leagues. With either at the helm you have the same team that disappointed so badly last season. Even if Rivers were to get the start from opening day, I see him as no better than a fantasy QB3 in 12-team leagues. First year rookie starters rarely if ever amount to much and with the lack of weapons at his disposal; I don't see Rivers as an exception to the rule.

Maurile Tremblay's Thoughts:

Add Doug Flutie to the list, since he outplayed Brees in limited action last year; and there are rumors that Brees could be traded before the season starts (but probably not until after Rivers is signed).

For now, Drew Brees is working with the first team in the Chargers' minicamp practices. But head coach Marty Schottenheimer has stated that if the QBs all look pretty even in training camp, the team will go with its number one draft pick - Philip Rivers - to start the season.

Rivers is generally considered the best-prepared QB in this year's draft class. While he lacks some of the physical attributes of the other first-round QBs, like a super strong arm, his maturity, poise, and intelligence may have him ready to play a bit sooner than the others. He has a very quick release and was amazingly accurate in college, especially on short and intermediate routes. His deep balls have a tendency to wobble a bit, and can sail on him.

Drew Brees, like Philip Rivers, was a very productive college quarterback. He hasn't had much success in the NFL, however; he is coming off a year in which he completed only 58% of his passes and threw more interceptions than touchdowns. The blame can't be placed entirely on Brees; a competent offensive line or a decent group of receivers would have undoubtedly made a difference. But it is questionable whether Drew Brees has the arm strength to succeed at the NFL level. Listed at just six feet tall (maybe more like 5'11" in reality), he sometimes has trouble seeing over the line of scrimmage; and he can get careless with the ball, resulting in turnovers.

Doug Flutie, meanwhile, is the most experienced QB on the roster and is still in great physical condition. His arm tends to wear out with sustained use, but he may be the best candidate to start the first few games of the season until Philip Rivers is ready to take over.

It is a three-way training camp battle; and there is a decent chance that either Flutie or Brees will be left off of the final roster.

Drew Brees' Positives

• Very productive college QB who has had a few big games in the NFL
• Reads defenses well and can be an accurate passer when he has time to set his feet and step into his throws
• Has a year's worth of snaps under his belt, making him the more experienced candidate between him and Rivers

Drew Brees' Negatives

• Lacks zip and accuracy on his deep throws
• Lacks ideal height for a QB
• Lacks surrounding talent other than LaDainian Tomlinson

Philip Rivers' Positives

• Very smart QB who should pick up the Chargers' offense quickly
• Has better size and arm strength than Drew Brees
• Is considered the QB of the future, and the coaches want to get him on the field to begin his learning process

Philip Rivers' Negatives

• Rookie QBs usually fare poorly in the NFL
• Holds the ball a bit low in the pocket, and has a low release point
• Lacks surrounding talent other than LaDainian Tomlinson

Final Thoughts

I do not recommend drafting any of the Charger quarterbacks this year. For one thing, there is no guaranteed starter. But just as importantly, whoever does end up starting will spend most of his time handing the ball off to LaDainian Tomlinson. This may be especially true for Philip Rivers. If the rookie gets the starting nod, the coaches will keep the pressure off of Rivers by keeping the ball in LT's hands as much as possible. When he - or Brees, or Flutie - does drop back to pass, he will be protected by an inferior OL and will throw to an inferior group of WRs. There is not a lot of fantasy value at the Chargers' QB position this year.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

To view the entire Player Spotlight thread (there's a ton of fantastic commentary in there), click here.

Winning IS Everything:
"I am not a big fan of QBs that rocket up the draft charts right before the draft. No question Rivers has been productive, but he has a questionable release as it will relate to NFL defenses and he has no weapons to work with on the outside."

Repressed Dennis:
"With all (the) negatives, there is still an opportunity for Rivers here. I think he beats Brees like a drum in training camp, and gets the starting nod to open the season. They open against Houston and the Jets, then play Denver and Tennessee. With the exception of the Jets, all of these offer opportunities for a QB to accumulate some stats, especially in garbage time. As long as Rivers doesn't lose any of these games personally (the team should be bad enough to lose them first!) then he should be able to stick with the job."

loser:
"I think Marty uses Rivers similar to the way Cade McNown was used his first year. That year (99), Shane Matthews began the season as starter, and McNown got a couple drives a game to hone his "skills". But McNown did get a chance to start eventually (albeit due to injury) and actually had a couple solid games."

Capybara:
"Looking at the Chargers schedule, here's how it should play out. Brees will start the season and have average games against Houston and NYJ. Week three on the road at Denver, Brees will throw three picks (2 to Champ Bailey) plus lose a fumble. Rivers will start the following week and begin his on-the-field education."

Phlash:
"I personally believe that Rivers will outperform people's expectations to a fair margin. He is one of the most accurate passers to come out of college in a long time, and if Marty doesn't sit around like an idiot and puts together some nice short passing game to complement LT, I think Rivers could have an excellent completion percentage. However, I will say that I don't think his YPA will be very good, probably 5.5 - 6 ypa. His year end stats shouldn't be too bad, but I agree with everyone that he's throwing more picks than completions."

Drew Brees Projections

Philip Rivers Projections