Jason Wood's Thoughts

Carson Palmer is in a terrific situation. Whether he's up to the task remains to be seen, but he has both the ability and opportunity to make a major impact on the league. The former Heisman Trophy winner and 2003 #1 overall draft pick is a prototypical passer with good size, a cannon for an arm, solid athleticism and pristine mechanics. His college QB coach, Norm Chow, is one of the most respected men in the business; someone who's had a hand in developing some of the best quarterbacks of our time. I'm betting that Carson Palmer is another feather in Chow's cap.

In year 2 of the Marvin Lewis era, Carson Palmer was named the team's starter before the first mini camp. On one hand, few should be surprised that the team decided to build around Palmer as the league's top overall draft choice a year ago. The Bengals didn't pay him all that money to sit on the bench. But, this wasn't the typical situation because in naming Palmer the starter before mini camp, Marvin Lewis was condemning Jon Kitna, last year's starter, to the bench without a fair fight to retain his job. Kitna was arguably the catalyst behind the Bengals improbable 8-8 season throwing for 3,591 yards and 26 touchdowns.

The pressure is on Palmer, because the team knows Kitna can step in and do the job. And the coaching staff has made no secret that they expect Palmer to be BETTER than Kitna was; simply maintaining the status quo won't be good enough.

Associated Press, July 27, 2004:
"Last year, people questioned why Jon Kitna should be the starting quarterback, and he proved he was up to the task," Lewis said Tuesday. "He had a good season - not a great season - kind of like our football team.

"This year, I feel strongly that Carson Palmer will be a better quarterback for us. I think he will allow our offense to do better things."

Luckily for Palmer, this isn't your father's Bengals team, at least offensively. WR Chad Johnson is among the top 5 or 6 receivers in the league, and Peter Warrick and Kelley Washington round out a multifaceted, athletic and polished receiving trio. In addition, the Bengals offensive line is a strong suit, and opposing teams have to respect the running game with breakout star Rudi Johnson and this year's 1st round pick Chris Perry lining up in the backfield.

The upside to Palmer is as follows: If Jon Kitna, a journeyman, can produce 3,600 yards and 26 touchdowns in OC Bob Bratkowski's systems, what can someone with the pedigree of Palmer accomplish?

From a recent camp visit by ESPN's John Clayton:
Sure, it's practice but Palmer couldn't look any better. The offseason allowed him to bulk up. Instead of being 230 coming out of college, he's a muscular 245 pounds. His dropbacks are smooth. His release is amazingly fast. He's confident. Most young Bengal quarterbacks in their second training camp have a fearful look in the eyes and are either trying to duck or cover.

Now, while I believe Palmer has the weapons, the intellectual capacity and the ability to be successful out of the gate, there is a risk in drafting him as your fantasy quarterback (or backup), the threat of a quick hook. Marvin Lewis wants and expects Palmer to play well; he believes Palmer's development is necessary for the Bengals to realistically become a Super Bowl contender in a year or two. However, Lewis has also been very clear that Palmer will have a short leash.

"We've got to be fair to everyone else,'' said Lewis, who can't afford to lose any part of his locker room over promoting Palmer."We've got to be fair to Willie [Anderson], to Rudi [Johnson], to Chad [Johnson] and to the defensive players. Let's make sure everybody's upholding their end of the bargain.''
Palmer said he can't worry about being on a short leash, and furthermore, he understands his coach's rationale.

"If I'm struggling and not doing what I'm supposed to be doing, and I'm making stupid plays, then I hope he pulls me out,'' Palmer said. "Because we do have a good team and we do have high expectations. Guys have worked too hard for me to just get the year to get a year in. If I do great, I do great. If I do badly, and he pulls me, that's just part of the deal.''

Luckily, Palmer isn't looking over his shoulder. Jon Kitna, by all accounts, has been a model backup and integral to Palmer's development. They are even roommates in training camp and plan to be roommates on the road. Consider this not dissimilar to the relationship Matt Hasselbeck and Trent Dilfer have in Seattle; Hasselbeck credits Dilfer's guidance and mentoring as critical to his ascension as one of the NFC's best.

Positives

• Has Chad Johnson, Peter Warrick and Kelley Washington to throw to, along with a solid line that will keep the pressure off him
• Possesses all the requisite physical skills and fundamentals (i.e., footwork, throwing mechanics, timing) to be a franchise quarterback
• Inherits an offense that produced 26 passing touchdowns and ranked 13th overall last season

Negatives

• A slow start could result in his benching, Jon Kitna has proven himself equipped to run this offense at a high level
• According to Footballguys own Chase Stuart, Palmer has a very difficult schedule, one of the most difficult in the league
• It's rare for a first year starter to light the world on fire; yet expectations are sky high

Final Thoughts

I believe Carson Palmer will be one of the league's best quarterbacks once his career gets rolling. And as much as I want to project him as a breakout sleeper candidate I have to be realistic about the history of first year starters in this league. The main worry I have about Palmer is expectations. As the first overall pick and someone who is replacing the NFL's Comeback Player of the Year…being "good" might not be good enough to hold onto a job for the full season. While I don't expect a quick leash unless Palmer completely melts down, it has to factor into your risk assessment of his prospects. Assuming he plays for the full season, I believe 3,400 yards and 20 passing touchdowns is a reasonable goal; which puts him as a solid yet unspectacular QB2.

Colin Dowling's Thoughts:

I don't like Carson Palmer. Nothing personal, but I have a hard time with college guys who take 3 years to "get it." Palmer was an unquestioned talent who was positively average until his senior year when he won the Heisman Trophy. The fact that last season the new USC quarterback looked better than Palmer did in 2002 cheapens Carson's high-status from college even more. Toss in that I believe Palmer's inability to read zone coverage will eventually be exposed at the pro-level, and I see "Approach with Caution" signs flashing in the distance.

However, despite my own reservations, there is much to like about the new starting quarterback of the Bengals…

1. The team made a playoff run last season with Jon Kitna at the helm, and Coach Marvin Lewis still feels confident that making a change at quarterback would help the team in both the short and long term.



2. The receiving corps is ridiculously talented. Chad Johnson, Kelley Washington, and Peter Warrick (not counting Mann and Schobel and Stewart) are possibly the most talented trio of receivers in the league. They're also all very young with plenty of time and room for improvement.



3. The offense in Cincy is exactly what we like to see in fantasy terms - lots of passing to lots of targets running lots of patterns to different parts of the field. A true "pro style, open the field" offense that allows a versatile team to attack any weakness it finds in the opposition's defense.



4. The coaching staff no doubt has worked with Palmer on his weaknesses in the last year.

When evaluating Palmer's prospects this season we also have to take in to account that the Bengals play a tough, touch schedule against the pass this season and the Midwest/Eastern weather will likely play a role in the team's passing strategy as fall moves to winter. We're also saddled with having to evaluate a situation where the #1 pick in the draft (and thus presumably a topflight talent) had a full season to sit back, watch, and learn about playing in the NFL.

Final Thoughts

So, what's the verdict? Mixed. I expect Palmer to endure the expected ups and down of a young player getting his legs. I expect him to have some VERY bright spots and some low points. However, my enthusiasm for him as a fantasy performer this year in any format is very muted.

Why? Well, last year, Jon Kitna ended up as the #8 FF quarterback with almost EVERYTHING going his way. A 62% completion percentage…26 touchdowns….6.91 yards per attempt…more pass attempts than Brett Favre. Not even addressing problems in consistency, I simply do not think that Palmer can match those numbers nor do I think that Marvin Lewis will give him the chance to do so. In my estimation, Rudi Johnson and Chris Perry will be pounding the ball regularly and Palmer will be given a chance to "not mess up" while occasionally hurling one downfield to a streaking Johnson or Washington. Palmer will be asked to protect the ball and move the chains - not win games and gobble up yards. Toss in a difficult schedule - and a December that includes the Bills, the Ravens, the Patriots and the Giants (3 out of 4 tough defenses), and I'll be looking somewhere else for my "QB2 with upside".

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

To view the entire Player Spotlight thread (there's a ton of fantastic commentary in there), click here.

IvanKaramazov:
"I think Carson Palmer is a nice value pick this year.

1. There's certainly reason to think he has the talent to excel in the NFL. He was the first overall pick last year, of course.

2. He's had a year to adjust to the pro game and learn the offense.

3. He has a great supporting cast, featuring a solid line, outstanding receivers, and a good running game behind him. Also, Cincinnati's defense isn't so good that it's going to shut anybody down and limit Palmer's attempts.

Of course there are some question marks with Palmer. Will he struggle early on? How short is his leash with Jon Kitna on the bench? How has he developed since his rookie year?"

KKrew:
"Carson Palmer hasn't started an NFL game & Marvin Lewis is going to turn his offense over to him. Is this unheard of? Nope. Denny Green did something similar with Daunte Culpepper. At the time Culpepper jumped into an offense that had been productive the previous year. He had a solid, if not Pro-Bowl caliber, receiver. He had a decent rushing attack and a solid offensive line.

Palmer doesn't have Randy Moss (and Cris Carter). But he does have Chad Johnson, Peter Warrick & Kelley Washington. Palmer doesn't have Robert Smith but he does have Rudi Johnson & Chris Perry.

I'm guessing Palmer has a solid, yet unspectacular debut season. He won't get to Culpepper's 2000 numbers but he'll be serviceable here and there."

Jayhawk:
"Carson is in a perfect situation to succeed has good - great WRs, RBs, a fair O-line, a good coach and a veteran QB who I think is unselfish enough to teach him the game without creating controversy. Not to say there won't be controversy if Carson struggles, but it won't be because Kitna is complaining. I expect him to have a couple games that make everyone say "Wow! This guy's the next Peyton!" but he'll also make some mistakes that make people say "look, another Cincy #1 pick QB gone bad"."

TheDirtyWord:
"While playoff talk is most likely cautious in Cincinnati, an early season schedule that features staunch defenses like Baltimore & Miami will test Palmer early. How he responds in those situations will be crucial to whatever success the Bengals have in 2004. There is no doubt though that at this stage of his career, Carson Palmer is not as good a QB as Jon Kitna is. So my hunch is that Lewis will rely on his running game and an improved defense under his supervision for a second year to establish the Bengals as a potential play-off threat, not Palmer."

loser:
"Check out the Bengals non-divisional schedule: Tennessee, Philly, Washington, Dallas, Minny, New England, Buffalo, Denver, New York Jets.

Ouch.

The Bengals lost O' Dwyer and Goff from their line. That's 175 career starts between them. Granted, O'Dwyer missed most of last year, but the overall depth will be hurt. Not the perfect situation for grooming a new QB."

Carson Palmer Projections